The Cubs are expected to be aggressive in their search for upgrades near the top of the rotation and in their late-inning relief corps, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Chicago was already expected to be in the market for catching upgrades this winter.
Improvements on the pitching staff have long stood as a fairly logical pursuit for the Chicago front office. The lineup was largely set even before Cody Bellinger passed on his opt-out opportunity. The Cubs have Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short and Isaac Paredes at the hot corner. The outfield/DH mix contains Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and now Bellinger. Each of Happ, Suzuki and Swanson have no-trade provisions.
Hoerner was speculated by many — MLBTR included — to be a possible trade candidate as a result of this inflexibility on the trade front, but his recent forearm surgery makes a deal quite unlikely. The Cubs aren’t likely to add a long-term replacement. Mooney suggests that top prospect Matt Shaw or an in-house alternative like James Triantos could bridge that gap. Hoyer told Mooney and others at the ongoing GM Meetings that there’s no timeline for Hoerner’s return just yet, but the team expects a “full recovery.” On paper, there’s a path to moving Bellinger and the remaining two years on his contract, but to this point there’s been no indication the Cubs will consider that this winter.
As such, an upgrade behind the plate seems like the clearest path to bolstering the lineup, while an upgrade on the pitching side of things is the most obvious path to improving the club overall. As it stands, the Cubs could be as much as $50MM shy of their 2024 payroll levels — a number that could push closer to $60MM if they opt to further subtract some arbitration-eligible players via non-tender or trade. Trey Wingenter, Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are among the options who fit that billing after several arb-eligible Cubs were already cut loose yesterday.
That leaves the Cubs with significant financial firepower at their disposal, assuming ownership authorizes a payroll at least in line with last year’s rough $235MM mark (per RosterResource). President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer (or perhaps owner Tom Ricketts) has typically preferred not to invest money in lengthy deals for relievers. The last multi-year deal for any reliever from the Cubs was in 2019 when they signed Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM pact. If that trend holds up, it’ll only point all the more significantly toward a potential splash in the deep end of the free agent pool for starting pitchers.
As it stands, the Cubs have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and likely Javier Assad locked into starting spots. Candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and top prospect Cade Horton. All have minor league options remaining, and any of the bunch could end up a bullpen option. Brown and particularly Wesneski both got looks in relief last year. Assad has had success as a reliever in 2023.
The top end of the free-agent pool includes Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. All four were predicted for nine-figure guarantees on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Of the four, both Burnes and Fried received and will reject a qualifying offer. Ricketts confirmed in October that the Cubs narrowly crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2024, meaning they’d need to surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft as well as $1MM of space from their 2025 international bonus pool in order to sign Burnes, Fried, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino or any of the free agents who received a qualifying offer. (It’d have been “only” their second-highest pick and $500K of pool space had they successfully dipped under the line.) The qualifying offer historically hasn’t been a dealbreaker for the Hoyer-led Cubs. They signed Swanson after he rejected the Braves’ QO in the 2022-23 offseason.
And, to be clear, the mere fact that the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever under Hoyer doesn’t mean that they won’t consider doing so this winter. Prior to last offseason, the Cubs had typically spent $5MM or less on free-agent relief pitchers. They nearly doubled that sum when signing Hector Neris. The deal didn’t work out, of course, but Hoyer has already begun to deviate a bit from the bargain-bin approach to building out a bullpen. That’s a far cry from declaring they’re in in top relievers like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez and others, but a step up in their aggression toward pursuing relief help shouldn’t be ruled out.
If the Cubs are indeed intent on sticking to the one-year bucket in free agency, there’s no shortage of older but still high-quality leverage options from which to choose. Each of Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen and old friend David Robertson is a free agent this winter. They’ll all pitch next year at 37 or older, making them likely one-year deal candidates. Any of the bunch could (and likely will) command an eight-figure salary, but the Cubs already came close to that level in signing Neris and could be further emboldened to pursue a solidified ninth-inning option after last year’s bullpen again proved shaky, tying for eighth in the majors with 26 blown saves.
bigjonliljon
The real and largest mistake that Jed made last year that irks me the most, was being over the cap by $300 K. Poor management and stupid. And unnecessary. Such a waste.
Fever Pitch Guy
big – You have bad information, the Cubs were NOT over the cap last year.
Their CBT payroll was $230M and the threshold was $233M.
jawinks
Yes last I read, the Cubs were only going to go over if Cody opted out. That would require the Cubs to pay him $5M which would put us over the tax threshold. Maybe Ricketts was expecting Bellinger to opt out when he made those comments, but from the math I’m seeing they did not cross the threshold.
Vote Blue No Matter Who
Burnes and Williams, book it.
Unclemike1525
So Jed is at the GM meetings. So where’s his deaf mute GM? In Chicago using a squeegee to get the rain off Ricketts driveway? Wouldn’t you think the supposed GM would be, How do I put this, At the GM meetings and saying something? Anybody who doubts who the GM of this team is take notice.
Jeremy320
Believe it when I see it. Wouldn’t surprise me if they are just trying to drive up the bidding.
Rsox
Wisdom says non-tender Patrick and Madrigal for sure, maybe keep Merryweather as he was pretty good for them a couple of seasons ago
Acoss1331
Hoyer is going to dumpster dive, I think most Cubs fans have accepted that. That being said, I have no idea what he’ll do. He could go big and sign someone like Corbin Burnes, or go in the complete opposite direction and sign someone like Frankie Montas. With Bellinger not opting out, he has less money to work with.
Fever Pitch Guy
Acoss – I read in the comments here somewhere that the Cubs insisted they wouldn’t sign any external free agents this offseason.
Safe to say that was more erroneous BS again? LOL
Acoss1331
Fever,
Lol no, Hoyer is definitely signing agents, there are areas of need. Now even more so straight from the horse’s mouth! I have zero expectations, the Brewers continuously stomp on my hopes to have the Cubs do well lol
Unclemike1525
The only question is how much will he spend. I don’t want Burnes for 200 million, Soto for 600 million or Alonso for any amount. But Tanner Scott, d’Arnaud maybe, Carson Kelley might be worth a shot. I’d rather take a flyer on Buehler if I’m signing a guy that’s hurt over Fried because he’ll probably be cheaper, And I hope Hoyer is smart enopugh to leave 20 million for the deadline because it could make the difference. Trust the Farm for once Jed, Don’t be stupid again. Unless he can open up more money by losing Bellinger, But I have doubts.
Drasco0366
Cubs usually leave 7-10 million in space at the deadline and typically that is more than enough.
I think the Cubs should go all in on Snell and Flathery, trade Taillon and go with an open competition for the fifth slot (ideally Brown, who did not look good in relief last year, not sure what the writer was thinking there).
Me: Snell 32 million Flathery 25 million, Holmes 10 million and d’Arnoud 8 million = 75 million.
Cubs are at around 57 million now after CB declared free agency and Almonte. Non-tender Wisdom, Madrigal which would be close to another 6 million and trade Taillon adding 17 million. Trade Tauchman, clearing nearly 4 and your 9 million under the tax.
Bench promote from the prospect pool (Shaw, Canario, catcher and add a vacuum left fielder if you have one in the system).
Roll a benc
Gnar Dogg
Brown had 1 bad outing in relief this past season and it was in his big league debut.
Cubby 2025
@ Fever Pitch…yep, how dare Steve Adams write such an article when Blackpink has told us for a month that they are doing internal improvements only. Jeeshhh….the gall of some reporters!
Unclemike1525
Never understood why you keep pushing to trade Tallion. Did he take a dump on your lawn or something?
Drasco0366
Because I believe he is in between this year and last year, ie a guy closer to a 4 era and I think the Cubs can do better. Given the payroll limitations he would have to be moved to make two significant starting additions while hoping to also sign a closer.
Would you rather have Snell and Taillon or Snell and Flathery?
Also, I believe the fifth slot in the rotation should go to developing pitchers, at least until the trade deadline. We have several guys who can battle for that spot, Brown, Wesneski, Assad, Horton, Birdsell, Pearson, Wicks. Why not improve Taillon current slot in the rotation and add a prospect at the same time?
Unclemike1525
I have no need of Snell at the price he’s gonna want. So you’d rather pay Snell 200 million for 16 games a year( Or less) And trade Tallion at 18 million a year for 2 years, And have an all LH rotation? Flaherty hasn’t been consistent either. he’s either good or he sucks and Tallion is better and cheaper IMO. That’s a complete waste of money that will cripple the Tax for years. We already have 3 guys we can’t get rid of until 2027. You wanna add more? I hope you never become GM.
Drasco0366
If you say so.
16 games a year? Snell has never thrown less than 20 and that was last season and that was also with him signing late and not being ready at the start of the season.
All lefty rotation? Last time I checked Flathery was right handed. So was Horton, Brown, Wesneski, Assad, Pearson and Birdsell.
I also hope I never become a GM, god forbid a GM field a dominate starting rotation and win more than 83 games. The key to being a smart GM is constantly being in a state of rebuilding. No extension! No free agents! No trades! Let the kids play!!!!
Blackpink in the area
You guys are killing me……
How do the Cubs have 50 million to spend in order to get to last years payroll? Who did that math?
Smyly, Hendricks, Wisdom and Neris. Am I missing someone? And this ignores raises for the current roster which I am sure there are a few.
How is that 50 million?
johncal25
Not sure the number but don’t forget last year guys like Trey Mancini and Tucker Barnhart were still on the payroll too.
Blackpink in the area
It doesn’t add up. Do the math.
Unclemike1525
Just go Spotrac-MLB-Chicago Cubs and then the hard part, Learn how to read.. They are projected to have 60 million plus, EVEN IF he’s dumb enough to tender contracts to the above mentioned Stew Bums.
Blackpink in the area
If the Cubs add 60 million to their payroll in 2025 I will change my name to Cubbieloverforlife.
Drasco0366
Hi Cubloverforlife:
Hendricks
Smyly
Mancini
Barnhart
Gomes
Almonte
Lopez
Armstrong
Bethancourt
Bote
Neris
Leiter Jr.
Blackpink in the area
So all those guys off the payroll and factor in raises and the total is 50 million?
I don’t think it is.
Drasco0366
Hendricks 16.5
Bote 5
Neris 9
Smyly 10.5
Almonte 2
Gomes 6
Mancini 7
Barnhart 3.2
Leiter 1
60.2 million.
Factor in all the other nickel and dime holdover such as Lopez, Nido, Morel, boxberger, Cooper and a bunch of others that add up pretty quick.
Not so many arbitration eligible players aside from Steele and Paredes that are getting note worthy raises. Subtract Wisdom, Madrigal, Brewer, Merryweather perhaps and yeah math adds up.
Blackpink in the area
Yeah it’s closer than I thought it was. I think it’s 40 to 45 to match last years payroll with the arb guys that actually get tendered a contract.
Now why would anyone assume they will match last years payroll? Nothing suggests that’s sustainable. It’s not like the record payroll led to a good team it didn’t
Drasco0366
So is there a duration for the name change?
Blackpink in the area
I said they spend 60 million. Thats not happening.
I say they spend on a catcher and some pen help then make a big trade. Catcher needs to be a free agent because the 2 teams that for sure have catchers to traade are St Louis and Pittsburgh and they pr9babky aren’t trading with the Cubs.
Drasco0366
I think they will get close and that isn’t me being a homer.
Hoyer is in the last year of his deal. He knows an extension is going to hinge on a playoff birth/run.
Tom Ricketts has always let the Cubs spend near the luxury tax threshold as long as they are competitive. They were 237 this season (according to cots) and 230 last year. Doesn’t seem likely to change with Chicagos desire to get back into the post season.
Also seems unlikely the Cubs gave Counsell a record deal for a manager only to dial back spending
Blackpink in the area
You are probably being a little bit of a homer. Last time they had a 200 million dollar payroll the season after it was in the 70s. And perhaps they gave the manager money so they wouldn’t have to pay as much to the players.
Maybe the focus of discussion should be on the moves they need to make not the amount they are going to spend.
Drasco0366
What?
Cubs ran a 237, 230, rebuilding 180 and 160, 216 and 237.
kenly0
Bote and Lopez are also off the books. Plus if they let Wisdom, Madrigal, Tauchman, and Almonte go. I figure it’s closer to 40 million available They don’t have but a few guys that will get nice raises in arbitration. Steele and Parades are basically the only ones. And, theirs won’t even be that much.
Blackpink in the area
So you want me to add it all up or will you do it?
A few weeks ago this site said it was 70 million. Today it’s 50 million. I wonder what it actually is.
Unclemike1525
What it actually is Again to the feeble minded is 88 million TODAY. What it will end up is how many contracts Hoyer tenders. Obvious ones are Steele about 6 million and how many of his “Pets” He feels the need to keep. So when you add it all up I figure with the guys you’d want, Like Steele, Merryweather , Pearson I’m tossing around 20 million into the kitty. So I figure about 60 miilion WITH Bellinger. 80 if he goes. I’d rather you just stay off the Cubs page than change your name to Sap, Or why can’t Pinkie read but I know it’s not gonna happen.
Blackpink in the area
The Cubs are not adding 60 million in salary after their arb cases. Not happening no way no chance whstsoever.
Unclemike1525
I hope not. I don’t think they need 60 million dollars worth of FA’s. But then Jed does Love and Need shiny things to chase. If you had a laser pointer in his office you could probably have a ton of fun.
Blackpink in the area
As i keep saying the Cubs have the young talent to make a big trade or 2. That’s what makes sense not adding payroll.
Joospife
Kyle Hendricks, who earned 14 million, and Yan Gomes, who earned 7 million, also come off the books.
GeronimoSon
$ 46.02 MM coming off..
robert-5
Plus Gomes, Bote, Garrett Cooper, and the 5 guys released today. Also, I believe Bellinger’s salary drops @ $5M. Thats gotta be @ $20M.
Maybe some other bad contract finally going away..? Not sure where they got $50M but doesn’t seem irrational.
jrnorny
Just because Jed says they will play for TOR starter & BOPB help doesn’t necessarily mean they play FA market for help, they have great Trade value to use if they choose too as well.
Blackpink in the area
Acting as if the Cubs are going to add 50 million to the current 2024 payroll is silly.
As I said earlier they should make a big trade. They have the young talent to do so. Trade for Crochet. White Sox need outfielders and the Cubs have those.
Blackpink in the area
Patrick Mooney is a Cubs fan it appears.
Guys. You keep trying to will the Cubs into spending but it’s getting old.
Acoss1331
Hoyer says a lot of things, I’ll believe it when I see it lol
Blackpink in the area
I don’t think he actually said any of what this article implies. It’s written by a Cubs reporter and also behind a paywall. Feel free to share actual quotes if you read it.
Blackpink in the area
There is this thing that fans do when their teams payroll is at a record high like the Cubs is. They pretend that’s the new norm and it’s lame. If it ends up being so then fine.
This isn’t what sports are about folks.
Lloyd Emerson
“The Cubs are expected to be cheap in their search for upgrades…” That’s how it should read.
Intelligent spending!!!
Captainmike1
Sure glad the yanks never signed Cody, what a waste of money that would have been
MLB Top 100 Commenter
If only Cubs would reverse direction and sign Blake Treinan and Tanner Scott to have a solid 8-9 close. Add a catcher like Danny Jensen and a middle of the rotation pitcher and they would be done.
Butter Biscuits
Agree
Blackpink in the area
How about Cassie and Triantos for Crochet? I like that deal for both teams.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Nah. Caissie is on the short list of untouchables for the Cubs.
Blackpink in the area
He’s not untouchable lol. He has no place to play.
Atlanta Jack
That kind of thinking is why your not in the playoffs even with that big payroll you have every year.
Atlanta Jack
Sounds like a good idea to me.
Blackpink in the area
I agree Jack. Cubs have what 8 guys on the top 100 prospect list? They can trade 2 and be just fine they wouldn’t be sacrificing the future.
bmcferren
Ian Happ for Mitch Keller is the trade
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Give me Tanner Scott or Mason Miller and Max Fried or Corbin Burnes.
Cmon Jed moves like this will severely help your job or if you don’t make a move like that you night not have a job.
capone14
They have a great hitting catcher at AAA bring him up and he can learn what’s left on the fly , The starting pitching is fine unless they don’t have faith in the young pitchers they drafted ( starting pitching wasn’t the problem in 2024 ) cubs need power so sign Soto & Bregman trade for Rooker and then look to see who Japan is posting to help with the bullpen or Trade Nico and Happ for bullpen help maybe work out deal with A’s to get Rooker and some bullpen help