The Brewers have declined their $10.5MM club option on closer Devin Williams, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Williams will receive a $250K buyout and remains under team control for the 2025 season via arbitration, where MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $7.7MM in his final season prior to free agency.
The move hardly comes as a surprise given that the Brewers figure to save around $2.5MM by declining Williams’s option. The 30-year-old may have been able to put together a season where he played well enough to justify picking up that option had he been healthy, but multiple stress fractures in his back left Williams unable to pitch until late July this year. Once he was on the mound again, Williams was nothing short of his dominant self with a sensational 1.25 ERA and a 2.06 FIP in his 22 appearances during the regular season this year. In his limited playing time this season, Williams posted his typical elevated walk rate of 12.5% but made up for it as per usual with an otherworldly strikeout rate as he punched out a whopping 43.2% of opponents this year.
Eye-popping as those numbers may seem, they generally are not a product of sample size. Williams has been among the very best relievers in the sport ever since he broke out during the shortened 2020 season to earn the NL Rookie of the Year award, a top-7 finish in NL Cy Young award voting, and even down-ballot MVP consideration.
Since that incredible rookie year, Williams has pitched to a 1.70 ERA that’s 248% better than league average by ERA+ in 222 innings of work. That’s the second best ERA in baseball among qualified relievers over the past five years, second only to Emmanuel Clase. Meanwhile, Williams’s 2.24 FIP ranks third behind only Edwin Diaz and Matt Brash, and his 40.8% strikeout rate is second only to Diaz.
As one of the very best relievers in baseball over the past half decade, Williams has been vital to Milwaukee’s success in recent years, particularly following the departure of Josh Hader at the 2022 trade deadline. While that could make Williams difficult for the club to replace in 2025 and beyond, the Brewers managed to remain successful in 2024 even after dealing Corbin Burnes to the Orioles last winter. Given that the first half of 2024 showed the Brewers were more than capable of getting by without Williams thanks to excellent performances from Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, and Joel Payamps in the bullpen, it would hardly be a surprise if Williams found himself dealt at some point this winter. MLBTR ranked Williams #4 on our recent list of the Top 35 offseason trade candidates, and even club GM Matt Arnold acknowledged last month that the Brewers will need to remain “open-minded” about the possibility of shipping Williams elsewhere this winter.
Of course, that doesn’t mean a trade is guaranteed. Even as the Brewers parted ways with Burnes, they decided to retain shortstop Willy Adames for his final season of team control. Adames figures to reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere this winter, but his resurgent 4.8-fWAR campaign proved crucial to the club’s offense throughout the year as the Brewers claimed their second consecutive NL Central title. If offers for Williams aren’t sufficiently enticing or the club decides Williams is too important to the club’s hopes of winning in 2025 to part ways with, it’s certainly possible he remains with the club for his final trip through arbitration before free agency.
That is wild to me. Rangers get him forget the 40 year olds
He’s not available. Milwaukee controls him in his year 3 arb. This was a cost saving move. Williams will make about $8m total instead of $10.5m.
He is getting traded 100%
Still a weird situation in that the final arb year would remain after the team and agent negotiated a deal for 25.
Still under team control. If they get him, it’ll be via trade.
Good god people don’t read
Absolutely get him Rangers…for Rocker.
This doesn’t look good. I get the cost save, but honestly this all but guarantees he leaves Milwaukee, kinda like Burnes after they fought him in Arbitration
There’s a pretty good chance they’ll trade him this winter, so I don’t think Milwaukee is too concerned with the long-term ramifications.
When he slammed his fist into the shower, putting him on DL for the rest of the year, right before the playoffs was not a good look. That really cost the Brewers big, this year he chokes in relief.
I do t think the Brewers are too concerned with him leaving. More likely they’ll move him by the trading deadline if they’re out of contention. RPs are like RBs, especially in today’s market.
1 They were extremely likely to trade him anyways. Smart teams don’t let players leave for little or nothing. Especially a reliever. Milwaukee is a smart team.
2 Players usually sign wherever they can make the most $. Maybe you would hold a stupid grudge and take significantly less $ because someone took you to arbitration but most people would want the millions of extra dollars. Not that they could afford a top starter or closer in a open market and they are smart enough to not be interested if they could.
Lower salary makes trading him easier. Teams won’t ask for cash along with him and the Brewers can expect more prospects in return. 100% he’s gone.
What????
This makes no sense at all. None.
Edit never mind it’s just the club option instead of going to arbitration. That makes sense.
They’re going to trade him. Him costing about $2.5 MM less can increase the package they’ll get back for him.
I’ve been saying the team should do this for a month.
Dude the Brewers GM said they would consider trading him. I guess he’s just taking your advice…..
Better me than you.
I dont think you are using that saying correctly…….
It’s better the GM listens to me than you. Reading comprehension, it’s your friend.
The GM isn’t listening to either of us fella. Reality comprehension.
True. But it’s clear that listening to you over me would lead to a worse team.
This is not going to be good for Williams’ relationship with the Brewers when he does hit free agency.
A year after being traded? Don’t think that is anything anybody is worried about.
I think they just upping his trade value for when they trade him this offseason. It makes perfect sense.
The Brewers will trade him before he goes to arbitration, so it really does not matter. This is the same guy who broke his hand right in the shower before the playoffs a few years ago. This year he gives up the playoff elimination game, heart breaking 4 runs in relief, in a prior 2 -0 game.
2 separate posts on his breaking his hand after “a few drinks”. He plays for the Beermakers…I don’t think there’s any action more emblematic of that team then what he did, no?
He’s not the first or last player to have done it. It’s been 3 years. Turn on Frozen and let it go.
His relationship doesn’t matter. He’s going to sign with whoever allows him to make the most $. He would happily sign with Milwaukee even after declining his option, telling arbitration how little $ he deserves, and trading him to somewhere he doesn’t want to go. They likely won’t have any interest in him as a free agent but he would happily sign with them if it was the superior financial decision.
Declining club option just to go arbitration? Sure the team saved around 2.5 mil after paying the buyout, but is it really worth the bad blood between ownership and players? Wonder how they deal with Chourio 8 years from now.
Him costing less will likely improve whatever package they get in trade.
Won’t be bad blood. Every player and agent knows a team will pick the least expensive option. They are your employer not your friend. This is zero surprise to him. Zero surprise to anyone in baseball or even fans who follow baseball more than the casual level. Being traded this fall winter won’t come as a surprise to him either. It’s simply business.
They are your employer not your friend.
==========================
The funny part is, many fans aren’t worried about Robbie Ray picking up his option to stay, or Cole’s option to leave. If there is one thing that makes all humans equal, is that they figure out what is best for them and take that option.
As an employee, I pick my best options, and I don’t take it personally if my employer does the same.
He’ll be traded. And he’s more appealing to a new team carrying a $7.7 million arbitration salary than a $10.5 million salary. Business move for a cash-strapped team that has lost its TV deal because Bally Sports is bankrupt.
I agree with all of that except “cash-strapped.” Making less profit than they planned to is different from hurting for money.
We’ll see. They’re likely to trade Rhys Hoskins too. Wouldn’t be a shock if they jettison/trade Aaron Civale as well. I think they’re going to shed as many contracts as they can. Putting Colin Rea on waivers is a sign of what’s coming this offseason. The Williams move is another.
Colin Rea isn’t a sign of what’s to come this offseason. It’s a matter of not having a place in their rotation, and being unable to acquire anything in a trade. Brewers 2025 rotation is currently Peralta, Myers, Civale, Woodruff, Ashby/Hall with Misiorowski, Henderson, Rodriguez, Patrick, one of Crow/Wichrowski/Hunt in AAA, and the other 2 in AA. There’s a big 40 man roster crunch to deal with as well.
Disagree completely. They’re shedding salaries. The Rea move saves $4.75 million if a team claims him, and $3.75 million if he goes unclaimed and they have to pay the buyout. All the guys you listed after Ashby are minimum-salary guys, and one of them gets the Rea spot. They’re going to non-tender a bunch of players too. I hope I’m wrong, but if you paid attention to what Matt Arnold has said publicly, you have a good sense that the payroll is going lower for 2025. They’re not stopping at waiving Rea and trading Williams. More slashing ahead.
Yes, those players listed are minimum salary guys. But if a guy at the minimum salary can perform the same as a guy making $5.5 MM, why would any team keep the $5.5 MM guy?
pdx, most likely because the minimum salary guys performing the same as the $5.5M guy is far from guaranteed.
That’s not what the Rea deal saves. The buyout on the deal is $1 M. Someone claims him they wouldn’t have to pay that. They weren’t planning on bringing him back because there isn’t a spot in the rotation for him. Payroll isn’t going to be lower in 2025 simply because of the big arbitration raises if they do nothing else. William Contreras is expected to go from $750 K to $7.6 M for example. Chourio’s salary goes from $1 M to $4 M.
If I’m going to have a pitcher that finishes in the top ten in home runs allowed (as Rea did) while finishing near the bottom in K/9, I’d rather save the $4 MM or so.
This ain’t Gerrit Cole we’re talking about here. Rea is a middling-level back of the rotation innings eater when he’s at his best. Most of the time, he’s a middling-level swingman. Dime a dozen.
Let’s do the math: So Rea would have made $5.5 million. If they don’t have to pay the $1 million buyout, and replace him with a minimum-salary pitcher ($750k), then the net savings is $4.75 million. If they owe the buyout, it’s $3.75 million. And payroll will be lower after/if they move Hoskins $18 million and Civale at $8 million, even with Contreras and Chourio getting more. Also subtracting Adames and changes in salaries at catcher. Essentially, Contreras 2025 salary is about what Sanchez made in 2024. If Quero is healthy, he’s your minimum salary backup in 2025. Catcher is a wash in terms of $$.
@cactusjack
I hope you’re right about trading Hoskins.
I doubt it since Hoskins is the typical Arnold/Murphy (Stearns/Counsell) type player. Just look at Brewers history over the past 10 years.
His $18 million contract may make him impossible to trade, but if some team comes calling, Arnold will be listening. In the best of worlds, he returns to old form and hits 32 home runs and drives in 100 runs. This team needs big bats, and they’re unlikely to replace Adames in kind, especially if Hoskins is on the team. That means guys like Mitchell and Hoskins need to hit better in 2025. I do expect Chourio to continue to blossom into a superstar, so that will help. If we get pre-injury Yelich back for the whole year, that’ll help a ton. If Yelich is hurt again and Hoskins repeats 2024, this team might not score enough runs to win more than 85 games.
He’s going to be traded.
Gotta pinch every penny especially considering many teams have to RSN TV money coming in. And it’s a smaller market but Milwaukee always seems to stay competitive. And that division is so mediocre that 88 wins probably wins it.
It’s a team option. It’s nothing but business the player chose to sign a contract like this and now the team can chose not to exercise the option.
If Williams had been able to put in a full season his projected arbitration salary might have been greater than his option price, in which case they pick up the option, Either way, the Brewers are not going to leave money on the table.
If payroll was 70m and they just signed a massive overpay of a tv deal they still make this move. Millions are millions. They would do it over hundreds of thousands.
Poor guy has to go through the arbitration process two years in a row. They are trading him for sure though.
“Poor guy” is going to make about $8M between the buyout and arbitration award.
I can’t imagine why any player would attend their arbitration hearing to listen to the team badmouth them.
Poor guy. Haha
Players get have 3 arbitration years, and Williams signed his 1 year +option to avoid arbitration last year.
They knew they were trading him they day they drafted him. Anyone who knows baseball knew this. Small market smart team. Team friendly extension or trade. You hate and really can’t afford to let someone walk for little or nothing.
No poor him. He agreed to go through arbitration process when he signed his contract. His hired representative will boast how great he is and team hired representative will pick at every negative they can think of. It’s not a big deal. Lil attention …… will cry and complain and oh the awful mean team forcing me to go through this. It’s just the process both sides agreed to.
Cheap, cheap, cheap. It’s not a bird, it’s the song of the “small market team”.
It’s simply business there is nothing wrong with what the Brewers are doing. His projected arb salary is less than the option. Nothing sinister here if Williams had a healthy 2024 I am sure the option would have been picked up.
Yep, simply business. Just like when the Dodgers do “simply business” for the club and their fans. Wait, that throws you into a tizzy though!
A song that is unfortunate in the messed up system. Not to mention Robby the robot allowing the RSN fiasco to continue.
Most people pay employees as little as possible. You are either a great employer or work for one. Congratulations. Professional sports doesn’t work that way. Most businesses don’t.
You’re right about cheap, cheap, cheap regarding Milwaukee and some other franchises.
However, I sure wish many here would stop buying the owner propaganda and labeling Milwaukee a “small market team” No, they’re not NY, LA, Chicago, etc. with regards to TV market size. However, Milwaukee does receive MLB cash each season, is also typically in the top half of MLB teams in home attendance and average cost for a fan to attend the game. That’s just a start.
A vast majority of owners don’t own teams to lose money. Privatize the profits and socialize the losses.
I see a fit with the Jays. One needs a closer other needs a shortstop. Bichette Williams. Not sure how to make it work.
Straight up ? Bichette is at 12m for one more year.
No chance. Brewers are cutting salaries. They have two shortstops on this team already in Ortiz and Turang. They have more SS in the minors (headlined by Pratt) who will be big league players within a couple years. The Brewers are likely to sign a bargain player who can man 2b or 3b than spend much on a SS. Ortiz would then move from 3b or Turang from 2b. Also, the Brewers almost always trade their veteran players for young talent with 5 or 6 years of control. They operate with cheap, emerging talent.
That’s insane and dirty of the brewers. Baseball needs to fix this broken arbitration system. The dude very well may be the best closer in baseball and he’s getting paid like he’s a avg to below avg bullpen arm … pay the guy the contract you ultimately dangled in front of him.
The only reason he’s not getting the option exercised is he missed half the season last year. That’s not the Brewers being Shady that’s fair.
They did exactly that.
“pay the guy the contract you ultimately dangled in front of him.”
That’s exactly what they are doing. He signed a contract to go through the arbitration process until he had 6 years of service time. Signed additional contract that gave his employer the option to pay him this amount. If either party broke either contract you will hear about it. You won’t.
I didn’t say they weren’t doing something illegal. I’m saying they are using a broken system to take advantage of a superstar that has made far more money for them and aren’t remotely paying him his market value. FanGraphs has an awesome (although not perfect) stat, that tries to predict the market value of each players season in terms of their production. Williams has been worth $60 million over over his brewers career. Yet what have they paid him? Roughly 13-14 mil in his career? And now they are gonna penny pinch him over $3mil as if he isn’t worth that. What a low class organizational move
“I didn’t say they weren’t doing something illegal. ”
I didn’t say that you did.
Williams and his agent knew or should have when he signed the contract that unless he was healthy and stellar he was never going to see that option exercised by Milwaukee.
Whether the system is broken or not I don’t care and find it a boring discussion. It is though a system that both mlb and players union agreed to so if they had a problem with it they shouldn’t have agreed upon it. They will argue it out again and see what they agree upon. I simply don’t care.
This was clearly done to make it even easier to trade him. The Brewers just saved any team that is interested in trading for him almost $3 million. If no team meets their trade demands, then they’ve saved that money to use elsewhere and they can trade him at the deadline. Either way, a smart business decision by the Brewers.
Even if they’re keeping him they would have chosen to pay him less. Nothing to do with trade but yeah it obviously increases his trade value.
Quietly, the Brewers have become one of the best managed organizations in MLB.
Yes they are
It’s more so many others are weak and stupid. What the brewers do is just common sense to anyone with average or above intelligence. Doesn’t take a genius to say hmm I think we should pay him the lesser amount of $. Instead of letting him walk away for nothing or a comp pick how about we trade him for a much better return?
I think Brewer fans who have witnessed ONE WS appearance in over 50 years of the franchise and that one appearance was 40-plus years ago would disagree with you. There’s nothing ground shaking about making the playoffs when 40% of MLB teams do that each season over the past several years. This team does just enough to put 2 million butts in the seats each year. Anything over and beyond that is simply a bonus for the owner.
Cheap, but slightly above average franchise … yes. One of the best, I think not.
I have a lot of confidence in the decisions by the Brewers brass as they have shown to be smart and creative. I wish I could say the same for my favorite team.
Your favorite teams’ Baseball Head gave out so many ridiculous contracts to players that were not only for more money than they were worth, but also gave them years of player options and no-trade clauses. Now they can’t even dump them without giving up more money and/or players.
Maybe I am just a genius but they seem very average to me. I figure anyone with average intelligence could do these things. Just some teams have really stupid people running things. I would say they are top 5 smartest team or least stupid team. But not impressed at all by this decision. A 5th grader could have made it. You can pay this guy 2 amounts. You want to pay him the larger or smaller amount? Here’s a hint. If you choose the lesser amount it puts more $ in your pocket and gets you a better trade return when you trade him in the next few months. I don’t see anything smart or creative about it.
That means the Brewers know he’s cooked. Feel bad for the team that trades for him.
It means the Brewers have 2 amounts of $ they could pay and made the easy choice of paying the lesser amount. That’s it. End of story.
I and anyone who follows baseball at more than a very basic level expects Milwaukee to trade him. When they drafted him in 2013 or whenever they expected to trade him no matter how good he was if he didn’t sign a team friendly contract. This is no surprise to anyone in the know. Whether they believe he’s cooked or believe he is the best pitcher in baseball they still want to trade him and most likely almost certainly will. Again has absolutely zero to do with them thinking he is cooked. Cooked or awesome they want players with more team control.
Devin is getting traded, and one of the teams that might try and land him is the Padres. Lots of teams will be looking for a closer, but I think Preller pounces on him.
If Preller wants him it’s a done deal. Other than Scherzer who had no trade and preferred LA, AJ won’t be denied.
He needs to go. Class A choke artist that isn’t worth the cash. I was done with him when he walked in two runs in August against St. Louis. It was time for him to go at that point.
God, Mr. Deeds is an awful writer. “Eye-popping as those numbers may seem” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It isn’t optional, and neither is correct grammar for a professional writer who works for MLBTR.