The Red Sox look to be one of the top suitors for impact starting pitching. As teams laid the groundwork for the offseason at this week’s GM Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox are evaluating ways to land a top-flight starter.
“We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation,” Breslow said (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). “I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”
The most straightforward solution is through free agency. Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell headline the rotation class. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea all project as mid-rotation arms and should be available on shorter-term deals based on their ages. Eovaldi is probably looking at a two-year pact with a lofty annual value, while Manaea and Kikuchi should get three or four years.
Snell and Burnes are the unquestioned aces. Fried is a little more of a borderline ace but he’d slot into the top two spots in any rotation. Flaherty has flashed ace-caliber ability, albeit with less consistency. They’d all project as the #1 starter in Boston. The Red Sox have a group of quality mid-rotation starters but don’t have a true #1 arm.
Tanner Houck is the closest thing to an ace among the internal options. He’s coming off an excellent year, turning in a 3.12 ERA through 30 starts. Houck’s profile is built more around huge ground-ball numbers than swinging strikes. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford each took 30+ starts with earned run averages narrowly below 4.50. They fit into the middle of a rotation. So does Lucas Giolito, who’ll be back after missing all of 2024 due to elbow surgery. Giolito has performed like a #2 starter at his best, but home run issues led him to post an ERA approaching 5.00 in both 2022 and ’23.
The Sox are awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on whether he’ll return. Boston somewhat surprisingly tagged Pivetta with a $21.05MM qualifying offer. The right-hander has until November 19 to decide whether to accept. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that while Pivetta is weighing the QO, he has found a nice market in free agency’s opening days.) As with the rest of the Sox’s in-house options, he projects as more of a third or fourth starter. Pivetta has the strikeout and walk profile of a top-end arm, but he has been very susceptible to the longball over his career. He has been a durable source of innings but doesn’t have a single sub-4.00 ERA showing on his résumé.
Boston has a few interesting depth arms beyond that. Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts performed well when called upon. Garrett Whitlock could be back from UCL surgery in the second half, though his injury history could point to a return to the bullpen. Quinn Priester is a former top prospect who hasn’t put things together at the MLB level.
The Red Sox have good rotation depth, especially if Pivetta accepts the QO. There’s certainly value in not giving starts to sub-replacement level pitchers. The Sox are well positioned to do that, but it’d be difficult to compete for an AL East title without having a legitimate #1 starter.
Boston should have the payroll capacity to make a run at one of the top starters. They also have the high-end prospect capital to push for any trade candidates. Garrett Crochet could be the prize of the rotation trade market. He flashed ace upside in his first season as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are likely to move him this offseason. Chicago GM Chris Getz said they’ll target position player help in trade returns.
Boston has four hitters who landed among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects. A trade involving top 10 talents Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer would be a shock, but catcher Kyle Teel or breakout infielder Kristian Campbell could center a return for a high-end starter. Boston could also deal lefty-hitting outfielder Wilyer Abreu for pitching help if they’re confident Anthony will be a productive MLB player next year.
There’s been some speculation about the Sox moving young first baseman Triston Casas as well, but Breslow shot that notion down this week. “I’m not sure where that’s coming from,” Boston’s front office leader said (X link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). “Casas is a guy that we think has 40-home run potential. He’s young and also has a great strike zone discipline and controls an at-bat. We’re excited he’s on our team.”
In addition to the rotation pursuit, Boston needs to land bullpen help. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each hit free agency. While a Martin return is possible, Jansen is almost certainly signing elsewhere. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and could pitch in the ninth inning behind Rule 5 breakout Justin Slaten. There’s room for another leverage arm, especially one who throws left-handed.
Breslow acknowledged that the Red Sox are looking for lefty bullpen help to add a late-inning arm alongside Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino (Smith link). Breslow also spoke generally about wanting to add velocity and a swing-and-miss element to the relief group. Boston relievers ranked 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in swinging strike percentage this year. Free agency’s top reliever, Tanner Scott, is a lefty who throws in the upper 90s and misses bats in bunches. He’s well above the rest of the left-handed class, so he could command a four-year deal that exceeds $50MM.
If the plan was to raise the ceiling then why offer Pivetta 21 million? He raises the floor and that’s a ton of money for an ok starter. Replacing Pivetta with an ace made sense. Now they are going to get stuck with Pivetta and there is no longer a direct path to make the rotation better.
If Pivetta declines the QO they can still sign him for more. The QO is just a way to get compensation if Pivetta signs elsewhere
I doubt he’s declining that offer.
I bet he does. Some team is going to throw a three year offer at him and he will take it.
Does raising the ceiling look anything like going full throttle, what a maroon. Ahahahaha!
Hes not turning down 60 million
No team is giving up draft compensation (which they would due to the QO) for the privilege of a signing a #4 starter.
Yeah, it’s also a death trap if he accepts and they are stuck with him for 21 million, even if for one season. I can see the excuse now, “well we signed Nick and we think he has ace potential, we really don’t need to look elsewhere”. Full throttle part 2.
there is no longer a direct path to make the rotation better
==================
Ridiculous. Any number of things can still happen.
Letting Pivetta walk and either signing or trading a top end starter made a ton of sense. Now the team is spending 21 million for a back end starter and they really don’t need another starter. They need better starters but they got plenty already. Fits and perhaps Priester need a chance to start.
Pivetta has not accepted the QO so far.
Bp. They need more than just one starter as regardless of what the article says about thier supposed depth you cant count on giolito for anything serious coming off TJ..plus looking at what happened last season other injuries left the group woefully shorthanded. I cant recall how many bullpen games they did but it was def too many.The sox need at least 2 starters so bringing back pivetta helps with that and pivetta may not even accept
I agree. QO’ing Pivetta is risky, but only Houck and Bello are sure things for the rotation. Crawford, Criswell & Fitts are decent low-end types, like maybe #5/6/7.
Breslow/Henry Redsox Nation expects a top 5 payroll so think Free Agency over trades…go buy Snell and Fried, 2 leftys and Scott. If you can get Crochet via trade do anybody past the # 6 prospect. Or Hamilton, Valdez, Gonzales, Sogard, Meidroth, either of the 2 Garcias. Outside of that resign O’Neil and get either Adames or Bregman to play 2b.
If they do one of these suggestions, I will be totally blown away. Sad that I am thinking that way, but the past few years have dulled the competitive juices.
I think a lot of us who were scratching our heads over this move misread the market out there on this. Listening to the MLB Network on SiriusXM this week reports from the GM meetings were that Pivetta was drawing a lot of interest from other GMs, with the speculation by the commentators being that there are things in his peripheral numbers that other GMs are looking at and seeing potential to unlock better production by tweaking his pitch mix a bit from what he used in Boston. If that’s the case then the QO makes sense because he’s more likely to decline it and the Sox get the pick, making it easier to go after someone like Burns or Fried who also got QOs and will cost the Sox a pick to sign.
Amazing that Pivetta is seeing enough early interest to consider declining the QO. I actually really like Pivetta but would be delighted if he declines. Sox need to go after a top-end guy, with Fried my preference. Would love a Tanner Scott acquisition as well.Since Boston (assuming Pivetta declines) really need 2 top starters, Crochet also does make sense since Red Sox have too many quality position players to fit on the roster.
I didn’t misread the market the Red Sox dud. He’s not worth 21 mullion.
You need to take the dollar amount out of the equation..by your statement you assume he will accept..if he can get 3/45 from someone hes gone
Pivetta raises the floor. They need a true ace (and NOT Kikuchi, Flaherty, or Eovaldi) to raise the ceiling. Hopefully they do both and don’t settle for Pivetta — they need to add more than one SP.
Well said, except for maybe that they need two aces.
That’s part of why I’m hoping to get Pivetta on a one-year deal. If they can add one ace this winter and a second ace next winter, they’ll be in good shape. In the meantime Pivetta is a decent short-term alternative who can keep that second spot warm.
Signing two ace-quality pitchers in the same winter is difficult. That kind of mindset leads people to pretend that Eovaldi or Flaherty or Kikuchi is an “ace”. And I don’t mean to diminish those three, but they are closer to Pivetta than they are to Burnes or Snell or Fried. We need aces, not almost-aces.
“Raise The Ceiling” kinda sounds like this years “Full Throttle”
Why would you say raise the ceiling right after offering Nick Pivetta 21 million dollars?
Looks like Raise the Ceiling is just a creative way to say he is trying to improve. Breslow is not really saying much. We need to see what they do. I don’t put much stock into what people say. I just wait and see what they do.
Nah. “Full throttle” was a pretty binary declaration meaning big additions or bust, and easy to fall very short of (as they did – they didn’t seem to even try).
Raising the rotation ceiling clearly means to add higher end quality as opposed to a focus on broadening. There are multiple ways to improve a rotation (you can do a lot with a full set of rock solid starters), so this specifies that they will make a pointed effort to add on the high end. That is meaningful to share, assuming there is sincerity behind it.
Longius – so based on your explanation (which I love, it adds some great additional context) how does offering Pivetta a QO raise the rotation ceiling? Or does it even accomplish that?
I’m firmly on the side that it doesn’t, but I’m trying to be optimistic. It’s just s little difficult based on the Sox track record with additions in recent history
Here starts the season off they are interested in everyone they should be but “just miss”
ibuit – The latest overused catch phrase in the corporate world now is “align”.
It’s not that the Sox failed to sign anybody good last offseason, the players just didn’t “align” with what the Sox were willing to pay.
And they think Red Sox Nation is stupid enough to buy that crap.
Love that lol I can go try to buy a sports car but if I only offer 3k I can’t get a nice one
“Ultimately, our goal is to deliver to the fans a team that is capable of winning the World Series every year,” [Breslow] added. “We are approaching this offseason that way.”
Sounds like Breslow will pursue a top starter and trade a SP even if Pivetta accepts the QO.
They need too ! Baseball is better with a competitive Red Sox team !
It is interesting that Breslow says it is their goal and approach, but is not promising a result.
Lots of teams but only a few top FA. That being said, They shoulda signed snell day 1 of last season. He’s a good fit in Boston. Lots of hate on here for Boston not signing pitchers to long deals too but in comparison, they have signed their share. Do what it takes and go get burnes !
Doubt it
It’s been reported that the Red Sox made $500+ million in revenue this season but only spent $250 million. If so, they should have no problem spending $300 to $350 million a year! Regardless, I WON’T go to, or watch, any games until they are a legitimate playoff contender again. Enough with the talking and stop being so FRICKIN cheap!
PISSED OFF Red Sox Fan!;
Can you break down the $250m they spent? I’d really be interested.
Did that include taxes?
Search for this article online
The Red Sox Are The Fifth-Cheapest Team In Baseball
The Red Sox, however, are all the way down at number 25 [OUT OF 30 TEAMS!], having allocated just 40% of the team’s total revenue to payroll. The only four teams spending less than the Sox in a relative sense are the notoriously cheap Rays and A’s, and the Tigers and Reds, who play in the 12th and 31st largest markets in America, respectively, compared to the Sox, who play in the 7th.
Minor point — the Red Sox are at **#26** on that list, only four teams cheaper. Ouch.
If they spend 25% more, that would bring them up to the median.
A lot of paying guys they don’t have any more
Spending 50 percent of your revenue on employees (just some of them this doesn’t even include non player employees) is higher than any other industry on earth. Nothing cheap about that.
That percentage of revenue spent on the roster puts them as the 5th cheapest franchise (according to an article on over the monster)
That’s not good Patriot.
Why are Sox fans paying a premium to watch the Sox play if the ownership doesn’t reinvest it in the team, and instead tries to fund their purchase of other sports related teams and/or leagues.
Spot on Joemo! I could not have said it better
Fair points Joemo, particularly about the other leagues. I’m sure it is frustrating to see the Sox so involved in golf for example. It might pay off for you in the long run though.
My point is that a lot of the time it is not pointed out how well the players do in the MLB.
FYI, those numbers do not mean the rest was profit. That “spent” is just in player spending, not total organizational spending. The idea is that Boston last year had a relatively low percentage of their total revenue spent on players when compared to the same percentage for every other team, meaning they definitely can spend more…but that doesn’t mean they can spend THAT much more.
Also, people who are talking about that number are missing something important: the luxury tax threshold. Any team that is pacing itself for the year (as Boston still was last year) should make a point of coming under the threshold so as to enjoy a reset on penalties for the years to come…but because that threshold is the same for everyone, the highest revenue teams will look worst in the “cheapness” ratio in the years they do this. Upper-middle revenue teams will have a better ratio, even though operationally they would be acting in the same way.
Sooner or later, even the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers will embrace a sub-threshold season for the sake of a penalty reset, and every time that happens their cheapness ratio will be even lower than Boston’s last year.
Cheapness is revealed not in a single year snapshot but in terms of trends. The Red Sox under present ownership have spent plenty as a whole, and for a decent period I believe their ratio was notably higher than that of the Yankees. In recent years, Boston clearly has been trying to rebuild the organizational talent foundation, and it makes sense while doing that to pace spending until some bad contracts have been purged and the core younger and minor league talent replenished.
It made sense for Boston to not spend last year, and spending over the threshold just to improve in some ratio would have been the height of foolishness.
One year later (the present), they seem to have more of a roster identity, a better sense of their keepers and where they need more help, major prospects who look ready to help at the MLB level in the near future, and better minor league depth through which to be able to make trades. In other words…they had a good reason to spend as they did last year, and no excuse to not spend notably more this year.
If they do indeed spend, the complaints are rendered hollow, just people making noise out of a sensible short term approach that had been aiming to better set the table. If they don’t spend, then it adds much more credibility to the idea of being actually cheap now.
Longinus: That’s a fair assessment in my opinion. We also need to consider the options available to the Red Sox. If Burnes and Fried have crazy asking prices, will we still blame them for not spending? If the White Sox insist on getting Anthony and Teel for Crochet, will we blame them for not making the trade?
Longinus? Lol. John Henry, why did choose this as your alias?
Alot of words to say pretty much nothing.
Agreed, you need to look at a multi-year timeframe. The Red Sox have been similarly cheap for the last five years.
When the Yankees “reset” it is a one (or maybe two?) year absence from the playoffs.
If they do indeed spend, I will stop criticizing them for being cheap.
Long – So much of what you wrote is inaccurate, I will only point out a few of it.
1) You only need to come under the first threshold ONCE to have a reset. The Red Sox already did that in 2023, therefore finishing $13M under this year’s threshold was meaningless with regard to future penalties. They could have had a $12M higher payroll this year and still remained under the threshold. If spent properly, that $12M could have gotten them into the playoffs.
2) You think the Yankees and Dodgers will be below the first threshold in the near future? Explain how that’s possible with the Dodgers already having just 4 players sucking up a combined $112M of cap space annually while on longterm contracts.
And the Yankees have just 5 players sucking up a combined $144M on longterm contracts. Neither team will be doing a reset anytime soon.
3) Clearly you are new to baseball, as the Red Sox ownership that spent freely from 2003-2019 no longer exists. Larry Lucchino, the driving force behind the spending, is deceased. The team is now owned by FSG, a massive global sports conglomerate controlled by investors that prioritize profit over winning. You are probably the only person on the planet that doesn’t realize the ownership structure has changed since their last championshp.
4) Cheapness is revealed in prioritizing profit over winning. It’s proven when a Top 3-4 revenue team drops their player payroll down to 12th-13th. The gap between revenue and spending is significant.
5) The Red Sox didn’t stop spending to rebuild, they stopped spending to increase profits.
6) The only foolishness is you believing anyone wanted them to go over the threshold. The vast majority simply wanted them to ATTEMPT being competitive with a payroll that is just under the threshold, and by spending wisely instead of foolishly. Just this year they spent $17M to have Chris Sale pitch for the Braves, and they replaced him by spending $20M this season on a crappy injured pitcher who didn’t throw even one pitch. Talk about foolishness.
That’s enough for now, please do your research before exerting so much time and effort on nonsense.
Stop trolling John Henry (I mean Fever Pitch Guy). You DB!
Piss – Where did you read that about this season’s revenue?
$500M was last year’s revenue, this year’s revenue doesn’t get reported until March/April of next year.
Good point. With inflation
(thanks to Brandon & Karen), their revenue is probably going to be $600m this year. They spent less than last year, so it’s probably closer to $200m. Even FRICKIN CHEAPER!
John Henry, you need to stop changing your alias. It’s now Fever Pitch Guy. What will it be next? Lol
Piss – I am quite confident their revenue will continue the downward trend it’s been on. Ratings were quite bad this year, and ticket revenue also likely went down based on empty seats and ridiculously cheap tickets.
And you’re right, this year’s CBT payroll was $2M less than last year’s despite the CBT threshold going up.
Really really open minded sounds like code for big trade coming. They certainly have the prospects to make it happen
Sign max fried and bring back eovaldi, trade Roman anthony and teel for Logan gilbert and Logan Evans, make a playoff run
That’s what Dave dombrowski would do, not new age Red Sox Craig “Chaim” Breslow
My bad not teel I meant Montgomery
They sort of need to trade a starter in a deal to get one back. That works with Seattle but the Red Sox could use a lefty and they don’t have any of those.
So you would trade the #1 prospect in baseball and last year’s #1 for Gilbert? Sign Fried and Eovaldi and have 10 SPs? Anthony is going knowwhere. Gilbert or Crochet trade would be only SP if Pivetta accepts QO. I like trading Crawford and Abreu in package for Gilbert and or Crochett. Pray Pivetta declines and sign Eovaldi. Thus you don’t lose any draft picks by signing Fried.
sad, they should dangle Rafaela and Abreu to see what they can get. Keep Duran, Anthony and Campbell. Hopefully they retain Refsnyder.
sad, one of DD’s best talents was a good sense of which higher end prospects to keep and which to cash out on. If he made those deals, I would assume he felt he was selling high on those prospects. However, I doubt that is the actual set of prospects he would identify to move, and it feels like an overpay. We’ll see how Breslow does in the trade department these next few years!
It is a steep price with Anthony yet Gilbert is one of those guys that would immediately be the Red Sox #1 guy that can go 6-7 innings a night (who goes 6 innings anymore?)
They haven’t had that since pre injuries chris sale
I prefer “Raise the Roof” over “Raise the Ceiling.” Both beat “Full Throttle.”
Ignorant – I’ve heard some of their slogans for the 2025 season ticket campaign. Not sure which one I like the most.
“This year we won’t suck”
“This year we are trying”
“This time we mean it”
I expect Breslow to rely on
“Kick the tires”
“Hometown Discount”
“Expect (fill in name of player) to be a major contributor”
Raise the Throttle.
Throttle the Ceiling
Christian Campbell and Braden Montgomery for Crochet. Who says no?
The Red Sox.
Can last years draft picks be traded yet?
Seems like a fair offer to me.
The Red Sox because that’s a massive overpay for Crochet.
Abreu, Hamilton, Sogard,
Winckowski, Slaten, Isiah Campbell
for Crochet. Win Win.
“Win Win” for who?
Thats a lot to give up for two years of a guy with 32 starts under his belt and whose arm could fall off the first week of spring training
No that’s not gonna fly. You can’t give up your scrap yard for somebody of value. You have to give value to get value.
In 2024, Slaten and Abreu combined for more bWAR than Crochet.
David Hamilton was worth 2.6 bWAR as well.
So maybe it won’t fly because the Red Sox need more value back than a reliever turned starter who already had TJ
Quantity is never considered equal to quality in MLB trades. No way Chicago does this.
Isiah Campbell? Oh, yeah. Trade won’t fly without him.
Piss – You think Isaiah Campbell will be the deciding factor in the ChiSox accepting that trade offer?
Fever Pitch Guy. You can’t stop thinking and talking about Piss. Get Piss out of your brain and mouth and you’ll feel better I promise.
Piss – What the heck are you talking about? I agree with your anger at the Sox, why are you attacking me? Makes me think this isn’t the first account you’ve had here.
Lol. Because I’m a FRICKIN PISSED OFF Red Sox Fan who’s about to turn into a Yankees or Dodgers fan because of the FRICKIN CHEAP A$$ Red Sox!
Plus, the Fever Pitch movie sucked!
Why, if he’s not their starting 2nd Baseman isn’t Trevor Story in the Trade Bait conversation. When healthy he was considered a well above average contributor at the plate and on the field…
Trevor Story has no trade value. They would have to attach $$ or prospects to move him. That’s why.
IMO, much better off hoping he returns to form.
Every article on this site that refers to Crochet as the “most coveted target” amongst the pitchers on the trade market, also says that a trade of any interested teams’ best prospect is unlikely. This makes no sense. The White Sox are a shitshow but I doubt they are gonna move their most valuable chip for the 15th best prospect in someone else’s organization.
That’s because Crochet isn’t a proven commodity yet. There haven’t been leaks about what the White Sox are asking for. Someone like Tarik Skubal has a longer track record so it’s easier to quantify a trade return.
YBC – Well said! The overhype of available SP’s who don’t have much of a track record is nauseating.
denny816;
In cases like this teams seldom trade their top prospect. Understand that they didn’t just stubble on the guy in their rotisserie league draft. They had scouts flying around the world looking at players, doing analysis before the draft. After the draft having well-paid coaches and analysts working with them as they come up from the minors. In short, they’ve invested a lot of time, money and other resources in the player. If THEY regard him as their top prospect it’s very difficult for them to move him.
What teams will do is move say 2 of their top 4-6 prospects and maybe one player on their ML roster that has some years of control left – particularly if someone else on the ML roster can assume his role in the coming season.
Sox will trade Crochet and Robert, Jr. They’ll probably get 4-7 young players back for them.
That’s a lot of “buyer beware” for anyone who trades 3-4 players for either one. Robert can’t stay on the field for 100 games and Crochet will have some issue bouncing back from a drastically increased work load
A lot of ways to raise the ceiling of the rotation?? You either sign a front line starter in free agency or make a trade for one wth
Butter – The Sox have been known to use other methods, such as the Rule 5 draft and waiver claims ;O)
I really wish they’d stop giving fans a catch phrase to latch onto and mock all winter.
That being said, burnes and Snell certainly raise the ceiling (though i question Snell’s ability to handle Boston) so would Max Fried but given the way this team has avoided signing long-term big money deals in recent years (Story is the only one in the last 3 winters) i won’t hold my breath
Rsox;
LOL
If you think Snell would have a problem playing in Boston, do some investigation into Burnes past. Not so sure about Fried’s make-up either.
Obviously those guys are going to want multi-year deals. Going in they know that there will be up’s, down’s and quiet probably at least dome injuries. Boston has been known for over half-a-century as a very difficult place to play in. The pitchers you’re bringing up will have options to play in other cities with competitive teams.
–
I had a cousin drive through Boston with his wife on their way to Maine for vacation a few years ago. Said when he came back that when they drove through Boston people were calling the sports radio shows yelling and screaming at the host about players, coaches, managers, FO people, team owners. Neither of them could believe it.
I’m not saying Burnes or Fried would fare any better/worse but something about Snell screams big east market disaster. I could, of course be completely wrong…
Maybe.
Remember Edgar Renteria, the Cards Shortstop who landed in Boston for a moment?
Nice career as a Cardinal, came to Boston and couldn’t do anything.
Tony LaRussa kind of shook his head and diplomatically said “I wasn’t sure Boston and Edgar matched up.”
Who’s dumb enough to offer Kikuchi 4 years? He’s old and garbage other than a 10 game outlier with Hou
That’s about as uninformed statement as I’ve read in a while. The 2.5 years before with Houston with Toronto he had a cumulative ERA of just north of 4 while pitching half his games against the AL East. That’s low end #3/ high end #4 starter stuff these days this isn’t 1991. Your question is backwards it should be who’s smart enough to sign him for 4 years? 4/48 gets it done and also you can already see what that looks like cause if Boston did it he would be pitching against whom? That’s right the AL East. If he falls off the cliff at the end and you got 3 good for 48 I guarantee you there are pitchers with worse numbers making more.
BTW a 2.70 era in the AL west is damn near the same as a 4 era in the East. The west has Seattle Oakland and Anaheim. Your comparison on his “outlier” time in Houston is silly. He threw the same pitches against worse offenses.
Your whole post is dumb as hell!
Tampa bay – we’ve already raised the ceiling in the new roofless stadium
The Red Sox could “raise their rotation’s ceiling” by improving their overall defense. It’s amazing what an airtight defense can do for an average-ish rotation.
Yeah, hope Story stays healthy and Ceddanne plays everyday in CF…also Campbell is a stud at 2b and if given a shot in think he beats out Grissom…the catching situation is the mercy part of the up the middle defense
Double – Since you want Rafaela in CF every day, who goes? Duran, Abreu or Anthony?
Sorry but I wouldn’t get rid of any of those three just to give playing time to an unproven player like Rafaela.
Haven’t the Red Sox won championships with defensive first center fielders? And with defensive first catchers? And with defensive first shortstops? Maybe not all 3 at the same time.
Easiest way to sign a top-flight starter: PAY THEM! Stop begging for handouts!
This free agent class is very underwhelming. The Red Sox have been fortunate to have a great farm system. The time is now to trade for a Skubal or someone else. Baltimore should have traded for Skubal at the deadline at all costs. The playoffs could have been different for them. I’m looking around the entire MLB and very few pitchers can guarantee 6 innings anymore. If you can get one do it all costs. IMO That’s the Yankees problem and it may mean start drafting and developing better pitchers.
The problem is they don’t trade prospects, either. They have their 3 guys they’ll hold until death, then there’s everyone else who the rest of the league was underwhelmed with last offseason when they tried to do the same thing
Mango – Do you trust the current regime to get solid returns for their prospects?
The pair of double-D’s were excellent at making trades.
Dombrowski traded for two future HOF pitchers in their prime and a postseason hero in Eovaldi.
Duquette traded for a HOF pitcher and robbed the Mariners of Lowe/Tek.
If Breslow is gonna trade one of CMAT or a current established starting player, he damn well better bring back more than Crochet or Fedde.
Honestly I have no idea because they don’t ever trade anything except flotsam but even then I’m not terribly impressed
From “full throttle” to “raise the ceiling”
Houck, Bello, Crawford could be a great 3-4-5 in the rotation. Burnes and Snell at the top would be darn nice. Pipe dream. Then the bullpen needs a lot of arms, one inning and multi inning guys. There are a bunch of good pieces there. I would not mind keeping Martin. Not sure yet about a closer, in house or not?
Teoscar would be nice in the middle of the order. Healthy Story would augment the right side. If Grissom could be decent that would help. Another pipe dream.
This team has work to do!
Liam Hendriks is the in-house option to close and Slaten has also been mentioned. Ideally they would scrap the ill-fated Whitlock-as-a-starter experiment and put him back in the late innings where he was dominant. Heck, give him a shot as the Closer
hayzee – In your scenario, what happens to Gio? Now that he’s recovered from surgery, he could actually be useful.
Yeah, that guy. Maybe slots into a six man? I just think he’s light for a number 2. But yeah, I forgot about him.
Somehow the idea of eating tiny footballs on little rolls seems kind of silly.
Breslow says he wants to “raise the ceiling of the rotation” and then offers Pivetta a QO.
That decreases the ceiling of the rotation because if Pivetta accepts, you now have a full rotation:
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Crawford
Pivetta
The Red Sox would be paying 21MM for Pivetta, which would put him in the top 20 salaries for pitchers. That is a massive overpay for Pivetta. The guy has all the “stuff” but hasn’t been able to put it all together in Boston.
The path to raising the ceiling of the rotation was significantly easier without offering Pivetta a QO.
I agree, it gives the impression of a set rotation. That might mean a trade opportunity where you send maybe Crawford and pieces for a higher end starter. I like Pivetta, he eats innings, but I want him at the back end. .500 with a 4.50 ERA is his track record and that’s fine for a 5th man.
You need more than five SP to make it through a season. Typically teams will give 10+ starts to six pitchers (177 starters with 10+ GS last year). On top of that, Giolito isn’t going to be 100% this year and Crawford was losing velocity in the second half.
If they want to contend, they need to put together seven guys that they have confidence in — but definitely more than five.
Crawford is by no means a lock for the rotation if a better option presents itself. Half of his starts, especially late in the season were brutal trying to watch him labor through five innings. Hopefully he spends a good chunk of the winter with Bailey and Breslow trying to fix that
Rsox – the same could be said about Pivetta and he was just offered a 21MM contract.
you don’t make this QO unless 1. you are sure he will turn it down or 2. you are planning to trade one of the other 4 starters
But is Pivetta a lock to turn it down?
If he didn’t have a QO attached, the general consensus was he’d get like 3/45 at most. But now that he has additional compensation attached (draft pick + IFA money), will teams be willing to figure that same amount? Most likely not as many teams really value the draft picks and IFA money.
In recent years, more players have accepted QO’s.
And a trade takes two parties, the Sox can want to trade players, but a team also needs to want those players.
or move a starter to the bullpen
Raise the ceiling? Is this in place of full throttle? Are they going to have a new catchphrase every offseason?
I think the perception of Pivetta and the reality of Pivetta are two different things.
I think everyone can agree that for the most part Pivetta posts. I think he’s looked as a relatively reliable innings eater. We all know his strikeouts per 9 are well above average and his walks per 9 are below average. His whip is good his peripheral’s are solid. If you just look at those things and he’s a well above average starter.
The problem is his era but is it really as bad as we think? Over the last two years his ERA is 4.09. According to an article in the athletic over the last two years Nola 4.01, Cease 4.0, Joe Ryan 4.10. I think those guys are considered above average pitchers yet Pivetta has similar outlying numbers. I’m not sure what the average starters era is in MLB this season but I’m guessing it’s north of 4.09.
So what if this guy accepts the QO he’s really kind of underrated on paper he looks more like a 3 than a 5. 21 million for one season isn’t bad. I would argue that one year and 21 million is a much better contract than Jack Flaherty who’s probably getting a 4 year 80 million contract and imo is a severe regression candidate. If he accepts it shouldn’t preclude Boston from getting their tor guy and bullpen help. Even if Boston goes over the lux a bit in 2025 with the money coming off the books and the cheap talent coming they should be able to duck back under in 2026.
I think Breslow knows what he’s doing here.
Fenway is also an exceptionally tough park for pitchers, so a 4.09 ERA in Fenway is a lot better than similar numbers in another park.
Flaherty and Kikuchi as you say are just modest upgrades over Pivetta. The Red Sox need to add an ace who is significantly better than that. And keep Pivetta to anchor the middle of the rotation.
Average that out between the horrendous defense in ’23 to the much-improved-but-still-awful-at-times defense of ’24 and the numbers look better
For sure… Too many people blaming the starters for weak defense and a weak bullpen.
tff – If they go with Abreu/Duran/Anthony in the OF and Story/Grissom/Rafaela covering the middle infield, the defense should be much improved next season.
I see an outfield of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu or Anthony from left to right. That outfield is arguably the best in baseball defensively.
I do believe if Story can stay healthy, a big if at this point, the infield defense is probably average. I do agree that with KD that Devers shouldn’t be playing third but that’s not going to happen for at least a year or two. I haven’t made my mind up about Grissom yet defensively at 2nd he should be solid but we will have to see with more big league playing time. I don’t put a lot of stock in advanced defensive numbers at first base since imo the most important thing a first baseman does is save throwing errors by digging throws and stretching and keeping his foot on the bag and Casas does that well. He’s lumbering and never going to have great range but he’s a lot better defensively than a lot give him credit for. An X-factor is how good is Kristian Campbell going to look at spring training? He can play any position adequately defensively and will give a ton of versatility as a super utility guy. If he hits he will get defensive place to play nearly every day. I think the key is Story the are a different defensive infield when he is on the field.
I believe the infield defense will be significantly improved this season.
The catcher is the most important defensive position – and our primary catcher is the worst defender in the majors.
Conner Wong was much better statistically in 2023 and 2022 and he was at least average defensively as a catcher. I like to look at three year averages on the advanced statistics and most of his problem behind the plate was with framing and I’m not really sure that’s not voodoo math. He is league average at controlling the running game. I think we have to see what happens next year I can see the Red Sox bringing in a defensive minded catcher to back him up until Teel is ready probably mid season.
I’m not seeing it… Even taking 2023 and 2024 together, his throwing is average but his pitch blocking is very poor (look at WP as well as PB) and his framing has gone from bad to worse. Maybe he will rebound, but he was frequently an issue last year.
Bruin – Two things about Pivetta.
Sure his walk rate isn’t great, but when combined with K’s over the past two seasons (min 250 IP) he’s 5th in MLB with a fantastic K/BB% behind only Skubal, Glasnow, Sale and Ryan. It’s not like he’s Wild Thing.
And the only thing keeping him from being a TOR type guy is the high number of homeruns allowed. That’s fixable with a good organization like the Braves. Add in his versatility as a solid reliever, and he’s a guy that is well worth paying $21M for one season or $45M for three seasons … but I think he needs a change of scenery to realize his full potential.
Fever when you really dig into it he is worth the gamble that Breslow took on him. If he accepts then fine he’s been like a 3 starter the last two years and it’s only one year. If, as is more likely, he doesn’t accept the QO and moves on then the team gets compensation. I don’t think the average Red Sox fan understands how much quality pitching is being developed on the farm it started to show this year I expect it to explode next year.
Yes, Fever he might just really break out with Atlanta. His stuff is unquestionable it’s high end stuff.
Hard to raise the ceiling when you had a pitcher win the triple crown and Cy Young. Oh wait….at least you have Vaughn Grissom.
There is no way of guareteeing if you played the season over again and never make that trade that Sale would put up the same numbers and be healthy for the whole season
I like Pivetta and would try and lock him up for four years! The between Dombrowski and the most recent GM’s that we have had is that he knew which highly touted prospect to trade and which ones to keep! John Henry wants as many cheap baseball players that he can get but at the end of the day you need a certain amount of studs period and that means a true 1 starter and a badass bullpen! I would sign Soto and then sign Snell and then make a trade for Gilbert! I would sign Tanner Scott and one other high leverage reliever. Move and Whitlock back to the pen! If you want to compete it takes money to get you over the top!
Stars win the WS
Criswell And Wong need to add 15 to 20 pounds of muscle. It will help both of them perform significantly better than this past season.
Wong is not a catcher sep in an emergency
Sign either Fried and/or Flaherty, trade for Crochet then sign Scott for the pen and sign Hernandez then I would start to believe in the “full throttle” or “raise the ceiling” BS. Just my 2 cents!!
Not holding my breath but Crotchet is doable.
you could do worse than having 5 not-great-but not-bad pitchers in your rotation but you could also do better. you could do worse than having 5 high-floor-medium-ceiling pitchers in your rotation but you could also do better. this sums up my thinking on the boston rotation
Burnes/ Snell/ Fried/ Crotchet/ Flatery/…. Any of the two would be huge!!! But Nation… do you think it’s feasible??
olmtiant…anything is possible at least it should be with the $$$ not spent/saved the past few seasons!
Burned/Smell/Fried/Crochet/Flattery…where’s Bob Marley?
No to trading Casas, yes to anyone but Raffy, and making a wise choice with trading a prospect to get Crochet. He is the prize.