The Braves are among the clubs showing early interest in free agent righty Walker Buehler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (video link).
Buehler, 30, reached free agency for the first time this winter and, despite a strong finish to his postseason, is generally viewed as a rebound candidate on the heels of a dismal showing in 2024. This past season marked Buehler’s first year back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and some rust was quite clear.
After not pitching at all in 2023, Buehler tossed 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues but was tagged for a 5.38 ERA with career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His four-seamer, which averaged 96.5 mph from 2017-20, clocked in at an average of 95 mph, per Statcast. He entered 2024 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but logged an 8.2% mark in 2024 — ranked 190th out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.
The Padres rocked Buehler for six runs across five innings in his first postseason start, but he went out on a high note. In 10 subsequent innings, he was unscored upon, recording a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in the process. That includes a pair of scoreless starts (four and five innings apiece), and what will go down as a gutsy closing effort in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5, when Buehler finished off the Yankees to clinch L.A.’s championship just 48 hours after he’d started Game 3.
Atlanta’s need for rotation reinforcements is rather clear. The Braves saw Max Fried and Charlie Morton become free agents when the season ended. Spencer Strider likely won’t be ready for Opening Day as he continues rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery. The Braves’ rotation, as currently constructed, will be headlined by likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale, converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez and 2024 breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. Options for the fourth and fifth spots at the moment include Griffin Canning (acquired for Jorge Soler), Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Bryce Elder.
Sale, of course, was dominant in a 2024 season that’s already netted him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors and is all but guaranteed to result in his first career Cy Young Award. But as good as he was in ’24, the lefty will pitch next year at age 36 and only pitched a total of 151 innings in the four-year span prior to this Braves renaissance. It can’t (or shouldn’t) be simply assumed that he’s once again good for 29 to 33 starts annually. Similarly, Lopez was excellent but missed time due to a forearm strain while shattering his own recent workload standards. The Braves surely hope that both will be as effective in 2025 as in 2024 — and as healthy or even healthier — but that’s far from a given.
Some form of rotation supplement is likely, and the Braves typically haven’t spent at the levels likely necessary to retain Fried — at least when it comes to free agents. Most of their long-term deals have focused on players who are either early in arbitration or have not yet reached arbitration. Those contracts all typically begin in a player’s mid- or late-20s. Fried will be 31 next year. A reunion seems unlikely, especially with the Braves likely to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and with Fried likely to command an annual value north of $25MM. Atlanta would be facing a tax of at least 50% on Fried’s annual value in 2025.
Exactly what type of contract Buehler will command remains unclear. He was at one point one of the game’s promising young aces, pitching 564 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate from 2018-21. That version of Buehler hasn’t been seen in three years, however. It’s possible some clubs feel there’s enough upside to guarantee him multiple years right now. A two-year deal with an opt-out feels feasible, and maybe a club would put down a three-year offer with a more modest AAV and hope for a return to form.
It’s notable, though, that the deep-pocketed Dodgers are the team most familiar with Buehler, his medical history and what to expect from his performance moving forward — and they opted against extending a $21.05MM qualifying offer to the right-hander. On the one hand, that’s good news for his market and gives any club signing him to a short-term deal the possibility of recouping draft pick compensation with a QO of their own if Buehler performs well. On the other, the lack of a QO can be construed as a red flag.
If Buehler is amenable to a one-year deal, he fits the broad profile of what the Braves have targeted in free agent starting pitchers. Last offseason’s three-year deal for Lopez was the first time under Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos that the team signed a starter to a multi-year deal — although even that can be viewed as something of an exception. The team expressed interest in trying to stretch Lopez out from the time of his signing, but there was always a possibility he’d return to a bullpen role if the experiment didn’t work. Anthopoulos has been far more willing to put down market-rate AAVs on relievers (in the $8-11MM range) than on conventional starters. Anthopoulos also knows Buehler better than most free agents, given his former role as the vice president of baseball operations in the Dodgers’ front office — a role he held when Buehler was drafted and was on the rise through the Dodgers’ system.
Dodgers get first dibs
got* – they could have had him for a QO (and gotten compensation if he rejected it). I don’t expect a return without him expecting pennies on the dollar, which is unlikely considering you have to think there’s another team that are more than willing to offer more guaranteed, hoping for value. (just as the article states)
Got is past tense. Learn some English.
They already had first dibs by having an opp to extend him or at least make him a QO, and didn’t do either. He’s in FA where they don’t have that advantage. They can outbid anyone, esp ATL, but they didn’t need to.
They also don’t make qualifying offers to Kershaw, yet they still manage to bring him back. Buehler’s situation seems similar.
@maxmilna: It *was* past tense. Read RunDMC’s comment. He explains it.
Kershaw is at the end of his career and has been a Dodger lifer that will go into the Hall of Fame as a Dodger. Buehler is a first time free agent without any of the accolades that have kept Kershaw in LA. Their situations are not similar
And Kershaw isn’t worth anywhere near $21 million right now at this stage in his career anyway
And got is the proper English for his point. They didn’t (also past tense) offer him a QO. They could’ve and didn’t (still past tense)
If you’re going to correct someone’s English understand it yourself first.
Should be ‘had’ and not “got” considering that ship has sailed.
I think dodgers are going let him walk
And go with someone else like a max fried
Maybe even the Max Fried.
Dodgers offer him one year deal, if he don’t except…Bye! Dodgers haven’t been shy about adding one or two frontline starters, they have the money and prospect capital to make a splash, Buehler had a couple good starts after failing horribly during regular season, good chance Dodgers move on!
Nah, Buehler is a legacy player for the Dodgers. They will likely offer him a multi-year deal with opt-outs. That would allow him to continue pitching alongside his buddy Kershaw.
As for “failing horribly,” Buehler was returning from surgery. I would bet on him to bounce back if I were a betting person. He’s a student of pitching who will figure out how to continue being effective like Kershaw has done.
As a Dodger fan I wouldn’t want him back unless it’s a one year prove it deal, way to many variables coming off a second TJ, like the Dodgers don’t have a boatload of arm injuries on the IL ALREADY! One year deal MAX!
As a Dodger fan, I want him back. The off-season payroll is in excellent shape, and they can certainly afford to bring him back. Considering what Buehler has meant to the Dodgers, it won’t be a one-year deal. It will be a multi-year deal with various opt-outs. A fair deal for both sides.
You’re dreaming, Dodgers not offering a two time TJ guy multiple years! Half their pitchers are on the IL as we speak, in fact just read Graterol just went under the knife for shoulder surgery, expected to miss half the season! Dodgers don’t need anymore walking wounded, one year prove it deal MAYBE, I could easily see him end up elsewhere! Baseball 101
I don’t understand the “legacy player” angle here. There are very few “team lifers” left in the game and nothing makes Buehler a “legacy” anything. Its not like his father and grandfather were career Dodgers. He’s a player who’s rookie contract expired and may or may not leave
That’s who I picked in the contest so go get em Braves!
Walker earned himself more potential earnings with that great playoff performance.
Had Buehler pegged for a return to the Dodgers on a short term contract, but that was before Sasaki was posted. If they do nab Sasaki, I don’t see a place for Buehler on the roster.
Great observation. I concur. I think they had a chance to get out in front, but Buehler won’t be a priority. I think he could be a steal. Sure he had some great post season moments, but I don’t see that overshadowing a bad regular season and his injury history. I think a smart org will make a creative offer, i.e. Braves.
The Dodgers are also a smart and creative organization. With the likelihood of a six-man rotation, there is undoubtedly room for Buehler. And with Ohtani counting as a position player, the Dodgers can go with a 14-man pitching staff, unlike other teams: six starters, and they’d still have eight relievers.
I don’t see them going with a true 6-man rotation. I predict a 5-man rotation with a bullpen game once a week or so. They have two potential bulk pitchers coming back in Gonsolin and May.
Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Glasnow, and Kershaw can all benefit from the extra rest. Why have weekly bullpen games when there is the depth to use six legitimate starters regularly?
Again, because Ohtani is two-way, they will have a 14-man pitching staff. It’s a break that they should take advantage of.
Not discounting the Dodgers FO being savvy, it’s just the health/ consistency concerns and change in priorities open the door to a quality FO to pry him away
The Dodgers just won the World Series with two legit starters and the rest of the pitching patched together out of the bullpen. If this doesn’t have the rest of baseball rethinking pitching then for sure the Dodgers are. You get those pitchers rest with a bullpen game, and they can take advantage of having some extra space on the roster by carrying a couple of long relievers. May and Gonsolin.
It might not be as much of a bullpen game but piggybacking Gonsolin and May.
Also, YY may start to prepare for a 5 man rotation. BUT, he and Ohtani are used to pitching once a week. That is how it’s done in the NPB and that what Ohatni and YY have done in MLB.
If LAD sign Sasaki and Buehler signs elsewhere, that makes it MORE likely the LAD do NOT utilize a typical 5 man rotation.
Ohtani* ….Otani is tires and Ohatni is a mildly amusing typo.
Ohtani won’t be ready to pitch at the start of the season and with him coming back from surgery and having an innings limit, I can see the Dodgers waiting to put him in the rotation later rather than sooner.
Cant have three Japanese in the rotation, bad luck.
@blueskies_La. Sasaki could be on a innings restriction. Also Yamamoto broke the trend, but name another Japanese to join a fellow player from Japan. Trend says they pick other teams.
buehler?
buehler?
buehler?
Well Said.
Typical Braves move.
Eww. That’s all they need…another injury plagued SP.
The one they got last year is going to win the NL Cy Young!!
ill be expecting him to sign for similar numbers to what lucas giolito got last year, based on age track record and upside, and in the contest i have him ending up a tiger
It will depend on how many days off he gets.
We still listening to Morosi after last year debacle with Ohtani?
Dude “mysteriously” added like 500 rpm onto his spin rate in the time between Game 5 of the Padres series and his next appearance. Yeah, no thanks. Big, big red flag (as if two TJ’s isn’t enough of one).
I’d spend the money to sign Buehler to a multiyear deal, I’d risk it with the work he has put in preinjury, and the likelihood that he regains his form, still in his prime at age 30, arm is a year stronger, got the post injury cobwebs cleared a bit. Unsure what kind of market he commands but I’d have no problem with a three or four year deal on a player like Buehler if the AAV is competitive.
5 dolla
AA hasn’t given a contract higher than 22M AAV yet I don’t think so they are probably limited to something close to that
Their offer will have performance tiers/bonuses for that reason
Buehler pitches. But you should see what he does on his day off.
Taillon was a great sign for the Cubs at 4yrs and 68M, I was a big fan of his when he was with the Yankees, he had his second TJ in 2019 / 2020, and has made on average about 30 starts a year since. Put in his best season in ’24 with around a 3.25 ERA. I’d say its a good comp for Buehler, maybe knock off a year but as you see with Taillon, the Cubs will have benefited big having signed him to a long term deal, had it been a two year deal, Taillon would be back in FA commanding a significant raise.
I had him going to the Yankees on a short-term deal.
New York State taxes usually make it where California and New York have to pay more for a free agent. I think in a short deal he is going bypass the Yankees
He is from Kentucky; went to Vanderbilt so
I would think on a 1 year or short deal that the Braves have an advantage. He probably grew up a Braves; just like Freeman and Fried wanted to go home to the Southern California area; Walker may want the south where it is easy for family to watch him play etc.
The Reds are stacked, he’d fit in nicely with Greene and Lodolo, but I can’t see the Dodgers letting him walk. Ohtani, Yamamoto, Kershaw, Buehler and Glasnow.
I see this as an opportunity for Stearns and the Mets to do another makeshift rotation of 1-2 year contracts to pitchers like Buehler and Bieber while front loading with Soto and Burns.