According to a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 player payroll below the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237MM. However, that will not be confirmed until later this offseason when the commissioner’s office calculates each team’s final payroll and formally announces which clubs will have to pay luxury tax penalties for the 2024 season.
The Blue Jays came into the season with a luxury tax payroll approximately $11MM above the first threshold, but they shaved some money off the books by trading several players ahead of the deadline. It’s also worth keeping in mind that publicly available payroll estimates are exactly that – estimates.
According to the estimates at RosterResource, 10 teams (including the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxury tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are certain to be penalized, while the Blue Jays and Cubs are close enough that they could potentially slip under the $237MM threshold in the final calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s final 2024 luxury tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. While neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs would have to pay a particularly high penalty for their modest overages (if they do in fact go over), the Blue Jays, in particular, could benefit from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last season. Luxury tax penalties increase when a team goes over the first threshold for a second consecutive season and increase again when a team goes over for a third consecutive season. Unless the Blue Jays are confidently planning to decrease payroll this winter, it would make a big difference if they could reset their penalties this year. After all, a 30% tax on a few million dollars in overages wouldn’t be that big of a deal for Toronto, but the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) next year and beyond could significantly hamper offseason spending.
What’s more, if the Blue Jays get under the luxury tax threshold, they would only lose their second-highest draft pick (and not their second and fifth-highest picks) if they sign a free agent who received the qualifying offer this winter. Similarly, they would only lose $500K of international bonus pool money rather than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, like the World Series champion Dodgers, understand that it’s worth losing a few draft picks and some international bonus pool money in order to sign the best major league players and field the most competitive major league team. However, one can understand why the Blue Jays, who finished 74-88 in 2024 and would likely only be a few million over the luxury tax threshold (if they went over at all), would prefer not to be so harshly penalized.
There is no reason to believe the Blue Jays are entering a rebuilding or retooling phase after their disappointing 2024 season. Instead, it seems more likely they will try to contend once again in their final season of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they attempt to do so, it would certainly help if they don’t have to be quite so concerned about signing a QO free agent or bringing next year’s payroll above the first luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that team president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the team’s payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” but that still leaves for the team to sign at least one QO free agent and possibly eclipse the first tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $211.2MM, approximately $29.2MM lower than this past year’s estimated total.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
Rogers will reward Shapiro with a contract extension for this.
Lindor's Bodyguard
*Shatkins
just_thinkin
Imagine having a $230 million payroll team and being that average.
Digdugler
below average.
bestone
Butttt…….they could have not signed IKF, Turner, Kiermayer, and others….saved the money and got the same result fielding the team they ended with. Or…was last year an attempt at recovering the farm system by signing anyone they could flip at the deadline? The extra money they spent (going over the tax) without any extra wins, should have been enough to get Shatkins turfed. The Toronto media shouldn’t be so nice to those two clowns.
Geebs
That’s what happens when the team is owned by the company that also owns the media outlet.
You just aren’t going to find many descending voices
30 Parks
Geebs – great point. The coverage by Sportsnet, the eternal optimism and company man approach, is a big problem with the Jays. Just no critical voices, at all. Jamie Campbell is almost unwatchable.
Acoss1331
Cubs had a payroll around the same number, were expected to make the playoffs and even possibly win the NL Central, and the Brewers ended up running circles on them with a payroll that around 100 million or so. So no, Blue Jays weren’t the only team that didn’t perform with a high payroll.
MoneyBallJustWorks
the Cubs payroll was less however it would appear AND they finished with a winning record. the Jays were well under .500 and only better than
white sox
Marlins
Angels
As
Rockies
Nationals
apart from the Nats, those other teams aren’t known for their spending or efficiency
Acoss1331
All true, I was just pointing out that the Cubs were still a disappointment considering what they’re payroll was last season.
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Sure, but no one said the Jays were the only team that underperformed. You were the one that decided to throw the Cubs caveat into the conversation
Acoss1331
Yes, apologies I just wanted to use the Cubs as a comp, as far as spending and expectations based on that payroll.
rememberthecoop
You’re so full of it. You’re a Sox fan jealous of the Cubs and you always go out of your way to comment on the Cubs. Whyndobt you just pay attention to your pathetic Sux.
Acoss1331
I’m a fan of both. Are there guidelines to being a fan of one or the other? No need for the crude language, please don’t resort to that language. I’ve seen you post many times with valuable and respectful commentary. I’d also like to point out that I critique both teams, for their positives and negatives. I’ll let my previous posts stand as proof.
Yossi Ronnen
I don’t have to imagine…
brucenewton
Yanks would lose 120 games with only a 230 million payroll.
andyklngnbrgr
I don’t understand how teams can’t KNOW this information and need to wait for it to be confirmed by the commissioner’s office.
I assume it’s a formula. How are teams not able to have insight into how it works and instead need to guess until they’re told?
DonOsbourne
The teams likely know or at least believe they know. It’s the public that has to wait on the official ruling.
NYCityRiddler
Does it really matter? Rogers has more money than they know what to do with, two problems here, 1. They’re cheap, 2. They’re stupid. Next! Ahahahaha!
Ptizzy
Ah, my favorite baseball exercise, accounting.
Acoss1331
It’s all about the dollars at the of the day.
Atlanta Jack
Will the White Sox payroll be half of the 2024 payroll?
Aiden Awe
Probably
Acoss1331
If they trade Luis Robert, which is a very real possibility, the payroll will drop further. I think their biggest contract is Andrew Benitendi, but that one will be difficult to move.
DonOsbourne
I don’t understand the Jays decision to put off the tear down. Realistically they are MUCH more likely to finish last than first in the AL East next season. If their payroll stays around last year’s number, it makes for a lot of wasted money over a two year period.
Canuckleball
The managements’ contracts are up soon (Shapiro after this season, Atkins after next)
Generally, you don’t start a rebuild with lame duck managers. They’re taking one last shot (right or wrong) and then they’re out the door.
Probably Vlad and Bo will be headed out of town with them after this season.
georgebell 2
I agree. Rogers/Shapiro held onto Donaldson when it was obvious to trade him so it seems they value ticket sales and viewership. Atkins is still employed so they wont be selling til he’s gone.
30 Parks
The Jays’ front office squandered a lot of positive momentum. Wasted time & the window is closing quickly. Jays fans deserve better.
Big whiffa
What should they have done different ? Imagine giving bichette 200 mil + lol. Lots of folks were calling for that. They seem to be signing decent guys and drafting decent. Not everyone can plan in the ML central
NoSaint
@Big whiffa
The only part of the FO baseball game is their ability of FA signings. Drafting, player development, trading, etc., are poor to below average.
30 Parks
Whiffa – the front office made questionable trades and failed to build around a solid core of players. The Jays had a window where the Red Sox were not competitive, arguably a season or two where the Yanks were not their typical selves – timing counts. Far too much energy expended on what was, clearly, a doomed pursuit of Ohtani. Poor decisions all around – “squandered a lot of positive momentum.” Jays fans deserve better.
Big whiffa
I agree with your assessment. I just don’t know what they could have done better. Even though they have a large budget, it ain’t e z to sign players to come to Canada. Gausman is a my well, the leadoff hitter played well enough on his contract, they brought in some power, found a closer ect. I like the moves they made, it just didn’t work out. I also think the division is still down as a whole and yanks over achieved so I’ll hold out hope for atleast 1 more year
30 Parks
Whiffa: I hear you – it’s frustrating. I think Yossi has a point, too, they broke up a good-hitting squad. The Jays seem further away from competing than they did just a couple years ago. The ballpark looks good, though, I’ll give them that much.
Yossi Ronnen
@Big whiffa They’ve overreacted to one game (WC against Seattle), and broke down a very strong offensive core.
ClevelandSteelEngines
If they are going to rebuild eventually, waiting seems silly. Kicking the can will leave the franchise without anything when they walk. Maybe the ownership knows this and is fine with the team struggling for the next 5 years without anything.
30 Parks
This must all sound familiar, Steel.
Yankee Clipper
YES! We desperately need a trophy for teams that accomplish this. Forget about winning, let’s talk about winning the luxury tax threshold war!
Lindor's Bodyguard
Is that a derivative of “winning the offseason”?
Acoss1331
Penny pinching is abound with all owners, but some teams will take that to the extreme.
iron
I don’t usually (or ever) comment on grammar, but I just get turned off by the word “gotten”. It doesn’t come across as professional. There are better alternatives.
Big whiffa
How bout gotted or gettin? Maybe just throw the word yeet in there, hmmmm….
iron
Same. Hahaha.
RobM
This was keeping the baseball world awake at night. I didn’t realize this was a concern either way.
Old York
I don’t understand how they can play baseball in Canada when it’s always snowing and cold for 12-months of the year. Weird…
Paul Miller
*crickets*….
Old York
@Paul Miller
Normally, that works if I said it in real life and no reaction but it doesn’t really work on the internet.
You had one job, which was to troll me, and failed. Haha!
MoneyBallJustWorks
he got a reaction out of you so did it fail?
bucsfan0004
The GTA is amazing
KamKid
Well, at least they have the sense to put a roof on the stadium unlike a bunch of the northern US teams that play at similar latitudes.
TheBoatmen
Fail. It is 73F today and am in shorts and a tshirt. Thank you for global warming. No joke we had to cut snowmobiling season short last year due to lack of snow.
bestone
Yes, but you overlooked the fact that the beer is always cold….not like some places where the beer warms up to swamp water temperature before you open it…. Money saved on refrigeration systems.
CTS4
AAARRRGGGHHH…The Nightmare continues in Toronto..!!
The 2 Incompetent Cleveland Clowns need to GO !!!
Jordan 5
Wait the dodgers are over the luxury tax??
NoSaint
@Jordan 5
A smidge over