Angels To Sign Yusei Kikuchi

The Angels have been the most aggressive team in baseball during the first month of the offseason, and they continued that pattern this morning by reaching an agreement with free agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi on a three-year deal worth $63MM, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Kikuchi, 33, spent nine seasons pitching for NPB’s Seibu Lions before he was posted for major league clubs prior to his age-28 campaign during the 2018-19 offseason. The lefty landed with the Mariners on a complex contract that guaranteed the southpaw $56MM over four years, with the fourth year being a $13MM player option that the Mariners could preempt by picking up a four-year club option worth $66MM. Complicated as that contract was, however, Kikuchi’s time in Seattle was both disappointing and straightforward. The lefty struggled over his first two seasons in the majors, posting a lackluster 5.39 ERA and 5.17 FIP between the 2019 and ’20 seasons.

He managed to turn things around a bit in 2021, however, with a 4.41 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 4.61 FIP. While those numbers hardly jump off the page, Kikuchi was an All-Star in 2021 and looked dominant at times, with a 2.33 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate in an 11-start stretch from late April to early July. Kikuchi took a gamble and entered free agency despite his uneven season. That decision wound up paying off, as he would eventually sign with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $36MM contract. His time in Toronto started off much like his stay in Seattle, as he struggled badly in 2022 to the tune of a 5.19 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation.

The lefty finally figured things out at the age of 32 last season, however, and showed off the consistent, mid-rotation production both the Mariners and Jays had dreamed on when signing him. In 32 starts for Toronto in 2023, Kikuchi pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 6.9% walk rate. That solid campaign seemed to tee the lefty up for another steady season in 2024, though he once again faced a number of ups and downs. Kikuchi’s time in Toronto this year saw him drastically underperform his underlying metrics, as he pitched to a lackluster 4.75 ERA despite his 26.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate both being improvements over the previous season. Despite that ugly ERA, the lefty had a 3.66 FIP, 3.51 SIERA, and 3.43 xFIP during his 22 starts with the Blue Jays this year.

Those exciting peripherals surely helped convince the Astros to package youngsters Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner in a trade with the Jays that brought Kikuchi to Houston for the stretch run. That was a hefty price to pay for a rental, but the lefty made good on his price tag with ten dazzling starts for the Astros following the trade deadline. He racked up 60 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, struck out a whopping 31.8% of opponents while walking just 5.9%, and improved his overall season numbers to a league average 4.05 ERA with a 3.46 FIP that was good for the 16th-best mark among all qualified big leaguers this year, sandwiched comfortably between top free agent starters Max Fried (3.33) and Jack Flaherty (3.48).

Now, the Angels are betting on those excellent peripherals just as their division rivals in Houston did over the summer. Amidst a busy November where they’ve already struck early to land Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman, and Kyle Hendricks via trade and free agency, the club has now gone out of its typical comfort zone to sign Kikuchi to the largest guarantee the Angels have given a free agent starter since right-hander C.J. Wilson’s five-year, $77.5MM deal in 2011. Kikuchi is just the second starter the club has signed to a multi-year pact since then, joining future rotation-mate Tyler Anderson. Kikuchi, Anderson, and Hendricks figure to create a veteran nucleus for Anaheim’s starting staff next year that could help to take pressure of younger arms such as Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, and Jack Kochanowicz.

While Kikuchi’s up-and-down performance may cause his new deal to raise some eyebrows, the pact is right in line with the $60MM over three years that MLBTR predicted for the lefty on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. Kikuchi ranked 12th overall and 6th among starters on that list, placing him firmly behind top-of-the-class arms like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Fried but in a similar conversation as fellow southpaw Sean Manaea among the better mid-tier options on the market. Notably, Kikuchi was unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer after being rendered ineligible by the midseason trade that shipped him to Houston. That surely made him more attractive to an Angels club that has relied heavily on the draft in recent years while fast-tracking players such as Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, and Ben Joyce to the majors.

Prior to signing with Anaheim this morning, Kikuchi had been connected to the Cubs in free agency as the club seemingly plans to focus on the mid-tier of the starting pitching market this winter with a preference towards hurlers not encumbered by a QO. The Braves and Rangers are among the other teams rumored to be shopping in a similar tier of the market, and any team that missed out on Kikuchi should still have a few options at their disposal this winter. Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew Boyd, and Andrew Heaney are among the pitchers remaining unencumbered by the QO expected to land multi-year deals, and interesting one-year options such as Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer also remain on the table.