The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.
As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.
At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
- Riley Adams (Nationals): $1.1MM
- Nick Fortes (Marlins): $1.6MM
- Eric Haase (Brewers): $1.8MM
- Garrett Stubbs (Phillies): $1.2MM
- Luis Torrens (Mets): $1.1MM
First Basemen
- Connor Joe (Pirates): $3.2MM
- Gavin Sheets (White Sox): $2.6MM
- Andrew Vaughn (White Sox): $6.4MM
Second Basemen
- Nick Madrigal (Cubs): $1.9MM
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): $5.5MM
Third Basemen
- Jon Berti (Yankees): $3.8MM
- Santiago Espinal (Reds): 4MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (Orioles): $1.4MM
- Josh Rojas (Mariners): $4.3MM
Shortstops
- Jorge Mateo (Orioles): $3.2MM
- Zach McKinstry (Tigers): $1.3MM
- Tyler Wade (Padres): $900K
- Taylor Walls (Rays): $1.3MM
Center Fielders
- Trent Grisham (Yankees): $5.7MM
- Mickey Moniak (Angels): $1.8MM
- Leody Taveras (Rangers): $4.3MM
- Eli White (Braves): $800K
Corner Outfielders
- Miguel Andujar (Athletics): $2.8MM
- Akil Baddoo (Tigers): $1.6MM
- Dylan Carlson (Rays): $2.7MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (Pirates): $4MM
- Jake Fraley (Reds): $3.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (Mariners): $900K
- Austin Hays (Phillies): $6.4MM
- Sam Hilliard (Rockies): $1.7MM
- Ramon Laureano (Braves): $6.1MM
- MJ Melendez (Royals): $2.5MM
- Jesus Sanchez (Marlins): $3.2MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (Giants): $9.5MM
Starting Pitchers
- Tyler Alexander (Rays): $2.8MM
- Paul Blackburn (Mets): $4.4MM
- JT Brubaker (Yankees): $2.275MM
- Griffin Canning (Braves): $5.1MM
- Aaron Civale (Brewers): $8MM
- Dane Dunning (Rangers): $4.4MM
- Austin Gomber (Rockies): $5.6MM
- Ben Lively (Guardians): $3.2MM
- Dustin May (Dodgers): $2.135MM
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): $2.4MM
- Cal Quantrill (Rockies): $9MM
- Trevor Rogers (Orioles): $2.8MM
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): $2.1MM
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): $825K
Right-Handed Relievers
- Justin Anderson (White Sox): $1.1MM
- David Bednar (Pirates): $6.6MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (White Sox): $1.7MM
- Camilo Doval (Giants): $4.6MM
- Scott Effross (Yankees): $900K
- Ian Gibaut (Reds): $800K
- Hunter Harvey (Royals): $3.9MM
- Carlos Hernandez (Royals): $1.2MM
- Dany Jimenez (Athletics): $1MM
- Alex Lange (Tigers): $1.3MM
- Derek Law (Nationals): $3MM
- Justin Lawrence (Rockies): $1MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (Yankees): $2.1MM
- Julian Merryweather (Cubs): $1.3MM
- Luis Patino (Padres): $800K
- Zach Pop (Blue Jays): $1MM
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): $1.9MM
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): $900K
- Jordan Romano (Blue Jays): $7.75MM
- Jose Ruiz (Phillies): $1.2MM
- Josh Sborz (Rangers): $1.3MM
- Cole Sulser (Rays): $1MM
- Erik Swanson (Blue Jays): $3.2MM
- Dillon Tate (Blue Jays): $1.9MM
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): $800K
- Michael Tonkin (Twins): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (Twins): $1.3MM
- Austin Voth (Mariners): $2.2MM
- Steven Wilson (White Sox): $1MM
Left-Handed Relievers
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): $900K
- Sam Hentges (Guardians): $1.4MM
- Tim Mayza (Yankees): $4MM
- Hoby Milner (Brewers): $2.7MM
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): $800K
- Colin Poche (Rays): $3.4MM
- Gregory Soto (Orioles): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (Mariners): $900K
- José Suarez (Angels): $1.2MM
- Alex Young (Mets): $1.4MM
Fine work by Brian Cashman there…look at those non-tenders he paid for with prospect talent! (I know, a little snide, but….)
Which means they’ll keep all of them so Cashman doesn’t have to admit he screwed up.
Did you guys see Hal’s comments about expecting an extension for Boone? Unreal. An extension would provide him with a tenure as long as four-time dynastic manager, Joe Torre, if not longer tenure.
I was blissfully unaware of that Clip. Rats!!
He got them to the world series. Handled a lot of really expensive players. Had to deal with Gylber Jazz. Most importantly it’s just a manager. Doesn’t really matter in today’s game.
If anything get rid of Cashman or ownership for giving out awful contracts. I’m all for a mega market spending money. They are funding the smaller markets. Just spend it a lil bit more intelligently. They should easily make the playoffs every year and win multiple world series each decade. It can’t be like 90s 2000s because other teams can spend big money now as well but it can be better than it’s been.
How did a career 1 win player like Andrew Vaughn get “projected” to make $6M+? I imagine the Wsox will offer him substantially less or perhaps non tender him.
Because, sensible or not, arbitration salaries are based on counting stats; not WAR
“Counting stats not War”…If this guy had any real “counting stats” we wouldn’t be reading about him in a story about “non tender” candidates.
I think it more shows that if you can remain on a Major League roster, that you’ll accrue substantial raises despite a lack of overall production.
That’s what I’m saying. His cumulative batting stats (home runs, RBIs, etc.), which don’t necessarily align with quality of performance, have driven up his arbitration salary.
I didn’t say anything about him “deserving” the salary, I’m just offering an explanation
His WAR is bad because he’s a bad defender which arbitration really doesn’t take into account. He still has that top draft pick pedigree. Decent chance he’s a bust but I think they offer him a contract. Gavin Sheets I think has a better chance at getting non tendered. We will see.
The way the Sox work is different.
As a life long 50+yr South Sider, I’ll explain it. I’d absolutely guarantee they will NEVER admit that Vaughn has been a top 5 pick BUST! By non tendering they’d be admitting it.
Yes they care more about an image of knowing what they’re doing as opposed to actually operating like a top franchise.
I guess these guys are on the hot seat with their families wondering if they will have to cut costs by Christmas
Depends on how intelligent and conservative they are. They all made enough $ to last a lifetime.
Patrick Wisdom hitting 30+ homers for the Nationals/Red Sox then signing with Philly incoming
And with a .274 OBP while doing it.
David Bednar + Bryan De La Cruz for Bobby Witt Jr, fair for both sides.
It’s kind of amazing that people can be bad at their jobs and still get substantial raises.
Very applicable to bobby witt jr.
They’re among the best 750 human beings on earth at what they do.
Only because so few are even exposed to the game, let alone choose to try to make a living at it.
I can’t tell is this is sarcasm or stupidity…
Neither. It’s just lame and pathetic. Has thumbs up though. People watch awful news. Awful movies. Awful music. So I am sure some enjoyed this awful comment. I will double down with a even more lame and pathetic one and see if I can get a thumbs up.
prove it isn’t a fair trade, genius
Andujar Frazier for witt sr? Who says no?
witt sr is retired
So? Mike Tyson was retired. Tom Brady Brett Farve Michael Jordan all retired and came back.
i think you forgot witt sr was retired so now you’re making excuses.
Zero chance the Angels don’t tender contracts to Moniak and Suarez. I wish they wouldn’t, in regard to Suarez, but we all know the Angels have a weird relationship with that dude.
Dustin May is probably borderline. I was thinking he’s got some good upside still for the price, but maybe the Dodgers won’t risk it since he’s been so injury prone.
Canning is a no-brainer non-tender.. I can’t really imagine the Braves giving him 5 million.
no chance Dustin May is non-tendered. if the Dodgers were concerned so much about injury, they could just make him a reliever.
They might non-tender him and re-sign him for less.
I mean, his most recent injury was pretty much the definition of a freak injury. I don’t think there’s much risk he’ll miss any more time due to an esophageal injury.
What if the Dodgers have a future choke in them? That would be life threatening to May!
I could be missing something but I don’t see why the Braves would non-tender Canning after they just traded for him in a 1 for 1 swap.
@shortstop Salary dump.
Wasn’t it more about getting rid of soler salary?
They’ll try to reach an agreement with Canning for less than $5mill if they want him.
where is Luis Arraez?
He will definitely get tendered.
“Where is Luis Arraez”..Probably back home in Valenzuela at this time of year.
Non tender a multiple time batting champ?
Romano is an interesting one…Tate and Pop can be easily cut and Swanson easy pick up (because of hope)
@Digdugler
I think there’s a possibility they tender both (roughly 3M for the pair). A lot is dependant on the quality of other relievers that are non-tendered. The Jays BP is a mess and there isn’t a lot on the farm. Tate and Pop are known commodities in the organization. If/when th FO rebuilds the pen they can be DFA’ed costing one sixth the cost of the contracts (about 500K for the pair)
I don’t see the Marlins NT-ing Jesus Sanchez. He was pretty decent down the stretch, was in the 80th percentile or higher of xwOBA, xSLG%, and barrel rate, is only 27, and is projected to make $3.2 million. Definitley could get something better in a trade than saving $3-$4 million by letting him go.
I really hope the Giants aren’t seriously considering cutting Doval. They have the cash to take a $5M gamble on an arm of his talent, and the upside is getting back an All Star reliever.
If the Giants want to contend in 2025, it makes sense to keep him around and see if he can boost a solid bullpen; If the Giants don’t want to contend in 2025, it makes sense to keep him around and trade him for a nice haul if he rebounds.
If they really wanted to unload his salary they could trade him. Someone would buy that $5 million lottery ticket. No chance he’s cut loose.
I think they’d be able to trade Doval instead of non-tendering him.
Definitely trade bait, Randy Rodriguez is basically the same pitcher they have no pressing need for a power right hand reliever.
doval is playing winter ball right now and is sporting a 5.68 era. so, looks like the giants f.o. might be looking to cut bait. just curious if it’s doval’s health, mechanics, “intangibles” (attitude us fans don’t see on a day-to-day basis) or a combination of those three that led to his bad year.
a bit sad to see yaz go. solid defender and good stick. was also reported he even offered a pay cut for a two-year contract to stay. where he ends up, they’re getting a solid, all-around teammate. thanks yaz.
Eric Haase is a bargain under two million and will be the backup to Contreras in Milwaukee.
Haase needs a more extended look somehow, maybe some DH, LF or 1st, but try that bat in a lineup with regular work and see what happens
I could see the Padres getting involved depending what happens with Higgy. Feels like it’s time to trade Campusano, and I could see them rolling with something like Higgy, Haase, and Sullivan and getting Haase AB’s at C/DH/LF
Maybe, but if the Crew can find an even cheaper option, they’ll do it.
I would add Patrick Sandoval to the list potentially. Due around $5 mil iirc, isn’t going to pitch this season, only 1 year remaining after
I think it’s a bit generous to assume there’s “at least a 10%” chance the Dodgers reduce their starting pitching depth in order to save $2.1 million. Dustin May will be tendered for sure.
I’m a little surprised that Miles Mastrobuoni isn’t on the list of Non-tender candidates. Unless the cubs already let him go.
He’s not arbitration eligible
The cubs need to dfa him then. He brings less value than a Big Mac meal
Hope the Mets tender Blackburn, he showed enough before being injured and should compete for the 4 or 5 apot
$4.4M seems a bit high
They may non tender him and then turn around and sign him for half the expected arbitration amount.
$4.4MM for a starting pitcher is a bit much? Lynn and Gibson set the bar last year at $12MM. Blackburn looks like a bargain if healthy.
He showed to be a completely erratic BOTR. His good games were very good, and his bad was were horrific – the kind of bad that strains the bullpen. He missed a lot of games with back issues. He had a surgery that will keep him away from baseball activities until at least January, so he will likely be behind come spring training and might not be ready for the start of the season. And then we have no idea whether or not he can stay healthy. And he does not have any minor league options remaining. So if they tender him, then DFA him at some point in the season, they’re on the hook for that money.
I’m not saying they don’t or shouldn’t tender him. Just saying that its a plausible call either way.
Trevor Rogers for the orioles would be embarrassing for mgmnt after his trade deadline acquisition
As much as I would like to dump Trevor Rogers, Mike Elias made a point of saying, constantly and to the exclusion of all else, that Rogers had two more years of control. Elias apparently didn’t give a flip that Rogers is terrible, he’s just happy he’s going to be around for two more years.
Go Figure…
Mets should resign Torrens and if non tendered Civale, May and Bednar
Time to build the Mexico non tenders roster
Give me
C- Torrens
1B- Sheets
2B- Rodgers
SS- Walls
3B- Mateo who I’m shifting from ss to 3B
CF- Moniak
LF- De La Cruz
RF- Fraley
DH- Joe
Bench:
Yarestremski to cover all 3 OF spots
Berti to cover all 4 INF spots
Stubbs at BUC
Starting 5
Lively, May, Dunning, McKenzie, Gomber
Top relief options give me
Romano, Topa, Wilson, Effross as my righties
Suarez, Mayza, Speier as my lefties
Think we could win 70 games if everyone’s healthy
Wouldn’t mind if the Jays took a look at Rojas or Fraley should they hit the market. I’m guessing they’d look at a lot of bounce back reliever names as well when they rebuild the bullpen.
Quite an interesting group here. I mean I do think a large portion of these players will be tendered contracts, but free agency could get a lot more interesting soon.
Dustin May stands out as a “wtf were the authors thinking” entry on this list. Dude’s a fantastic talent and makes nothing. Unless there’s something they know about his arm that we don’t (his injury last year was freakish and not pitching related).
If he does get non-tendered, Boston needs to start talking to defensive metrics whiz Nick Fortes. Connor Wong can hit, but he has a negative impact on the pitching staff.
I see Bednar getting traded before he gets non-tendered.
You could create a pretty solid church league softball team with these guys.
Rays list of actual free agents we can maybe afford