MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 19th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power. To view the full 2024-25 free agent list, click here.
This list is a labor of love that represents more than a month of work by Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams. We live and breathe MLB free agency at this website, and we’ve spent countless hours debating these contract projections. While we reached a general consensus on the contracts, points of disagreement certainly remain. We’ve each made our own set of team picks as well, but it’s worth noting the difficulty in getting even one-fifth of those correct.
Please note that some clubs are under-represented in our team picks, but there will be notable free agent signings outside of our top 50, and some teams prefer to supplement via trade. A team “only” having one top-50 signing or not signing any of our top 50 free agents is not an indication that we feel said team will idly sit on its hands all offseason.
Making team picks is part of the fun, which is why we hold a free agent prediction contest every year! This year’s contest is currently open and closes at 11pm central time on November 11th. Click here to enter! You can change your picks up until the deadline. Keep in mind that any player who signs prior to the deadline will be excluded from the results.
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The 2024-25 MLB free agent market is headlined by arguably the most in-demand position player since Alex Rodriguez redefined free agent expectations with a 10-year, $252MM contract from the Rangers back in 2000. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Have your say on all of this in the comment section!
One free agent of note who is not ranked on our list is Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, the ace of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines. It’s possible that Sasaki will be posted this winter, and it’s an inevitability that he’ll make his way to MLB at some point, even if not this offseason. For the time being, we’re operating under the assumption that Sasaki will remain in Japan. Were he to be posted right now, he’d be considered an “amateur” under MLB’s international free agency guidelines, as the league stipulates that a player must be at least 25 years of age and have six-plus seasons of professional ball under his belt to be considered a “professional”. Sasaki just turned 23 yesterday. As an amateur, he would be restricted to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from the league’s hard-capped bonus pool system. He’d earn well under $10MM. If Sasaki waits even two years until he’s a 25-year-old, he could take aim at Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract. Sasaki has pitched in four NPB seasons and boasts a career 2.10 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate.
Thanks to Anthony and Darragh for helping to split the workload on some of the player write-ups on this year’s list!
On to our top 50 free agents:
1. Juan Soto: Thirteen years, $600MM
Tim Dierkes’ prediction: Yankees / Anthony Franco’s prediction: Yankees / Darragh McDonald’s prediction: Mets / Steve Adams’ prediction: Mets
Soto isn’t just one of the best hitters on the planet, he’s one of the youngest and thus most appealing free agents in recent history. Given how long he’s been in league and how dominant he’s been since day one, it’s easy to forget that Soto played the entire 2024 regular season at just 25 years of age. Teammate Aaron Judge didn’t even play a full big league season until he was 25.
It’s rare for a player to even make his big league debut at 19, let alone to immediately break out as a star. That’s precisely what Soto did, however, belting an opposite-field home run off Chad Green in his second big league plate appearance. One home run doesn’t make anyone a star, of course, but Soto was completely unfazed by MLB pitching and went on to post a .292/.406/.517 batting line and swat 22 homers all before turning 20. In the entire history of the game, no one as young as Soto has turned in a season that good. Soto’s 142 OPS+ in his rookie season is the best in MLB history (min. 300 plate appearances). Soto’s debut harkened back to Hall of Famer Mel Ott’s jaw-dropping 19-year-old rookie season with the New York Giants exactly 90 years prior.
Good as Soto was in 2018’s rookie showing, he’s only gotten better. Soto never struck out at even a league-average clip, but he sat at 20% in his first two seasons and has cut back since, bottoming out at 14.2% in 2021 and checking in at 16.7% with the Yankees in 2024. He’s walked more often than he’s struck out in each of the past five seasons (19.8% walk rate, 15.8% strikeout rate in that span) and belted 145 home runs along the way. Soto set a new highwater mark in that regard this season, clubbing 41 big flies in the first of what will very likely be multiple 40-homer campaigns in a career that’s squarely on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Soto’s greatness has extended beyond the regular season. His reaction after obliterating a high fastball from Guardians standout reliever Hunter Gaddis and effectively sending the Yankees to the World Series is still fresh in everyone’s memory, but this isn’t his first October rodeo. Soto starred for the Nationals’ 2019 World Series club. The Cardinals kept him quiet during that year’s NLCS, but he had a big showing against the Dodgers in the NLDS and caught absolute fire under the bright lights of the World Series, going 9-for-27 with three homers, a pair of doubles and five walks. This year’s postseason went even better; Soto was the Yankees’ most consistently (and at times only) productive hitter. He reached base in all 14 playoff games and turned in a huge .327/.469/.633 slash with four homers, three doubles and more walks (14) than strikeouts (9).
There’s little Soto hasn’t already accomplished. At 25, he’s a former Home Run Derby winner, National League batting champion and four-time All-Star. He’s won a World Series and participated in another. Soto hasn’t won an MVP — at least not yet — but will assuredly pick up his fourth top-six finish in seven big league seasons in a few weeks. He’s not going to win this year’s award in the AL, thanks to outrageous seasons from Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., but Soto’s 2024 numbers would have made him a favorite in many other years.
When it comes to Soto’s contract, any and all historical norms can be tossed out. You could argue that the last time a superstar of this caliber reached free agency at such a young age is Soto’s former teammate Bryce Harper, but we’d posit that this is the most appealing blend of youth and statistical dominance since Alex Rodriguez stunned the entire sports world with a 10-year, $252MM contract to sign with the Rangers.
There’s little doubt Soto will sign a contract of at least a decade in length. The question becomes one of how long a team will be willing to go at what figures to be a new record average annual value (setting aside Shohei Ohtani’s overwhelmingly deferred $700MM contract, which came with an NPV closer to $43.7MM, using the MLBPA’s number). A 12-year deal would pay Soto through age-37, but it’s not out of the question that a team will go later into his career than that. The Yankees guaranteed Judge $40MM annually through his age-39 season.
Soto and agent Scott Boras already rejected a reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals in 2021, before he was traded to the Padres. Soto has since pocketed $54MM in arbitration and now seems a lock to top the $386MM remainder; his historic bet on himself has paid off, and Boras will now surely be taking aim at both a precedent-setting average annual value and guarantee. In the wake of the Ohtani contract, Boras told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.”
That’s a reference to the MLBPA’s present-day valuation of $437,830,563 of Ohtani’s contract (which, of course, was announced as a ten-year, $700MM deal but defers $68MM annually). A mega-contract that lacks deferrals and sets a more concrete AAV record and present-day value record seems likely to be the target, and based on the expected bidders, Soto and Boras have a very good chance of reaching it.
The Yankees, of course, are prepared to get into a bidding war to retain the star for whom they traded last offseason. The crosstown Mets enter the offseason with with nearly $200MM of contractual obligations coming off the books and a spendthrift owner who’ll be emboldened by his club’s unexpected run to the NLCS. Soto’s original club, the Nationals (who took care of a massive portion of their rebuilding effort in one fell swoop with the trade that sent Soto to San Diego), would reportedly “love” a reunion with him. Their president of baseball operations, Mike Rizzo, has stated on record he’s in the market for middle-of-the-order bats this winter.
Newly minted Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has lamented the lack of star power on the team’s roster in recent years and spoke at his introductory press conference and invoked the names of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Willie McCovey, Will Clark, Tim Lincecum and more in pledging to get the Giants back into the “memory-making business.” Nary a star player hits the market without Padres president A.J. Preller throwing his hat into the ring. The Dodgers will surely look into the possibility, and the Blue Jays could get involved, too; they made a spirited run at Ohtani last offseason.
Many expect the bidding to come down to the two New York clubs, but Soto is a unique free agent who could well command genuine interest from an out-of-the-blue suitor with a clean payroll outlook and a team on the rise. No one’s going to call the Tigers or Orioles anything more than a dark-horse (or perhaps just a pipe dream), but both have nearly blank-slate payrolls. Soto received a qualifying offer and will naturally reject that. The draft compensation attached to him won’t matter one iota. This is a once-every-quarter-century free agent. The bidding for Soto will be wild, and we’re expecting him to indeed topple the present-day total and average annual value of Ohtani’s contract.
Signed with Mets for 15 years, $765MM.
2. Corbin Burnes: Seven years, $200MM
Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Red Sox
Burnes headlines a strong class of free agent pitchers, leading the pack as a former Cy Young winner (2021) with an appealing blend of durability and relative youth. He’s younger and/or healthier than the other top starting pitchers who’ll follow him on this list.
Burnes didn’t exactly hit the ground running in his MLB career — he lost his rotation spot early in 2019 and was torched for an 8.82 ERA that season overall — but Burnes made good on his top prospect billing and status as an analytics darling the following year when he broke out with a 2.11 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s been a dominant workhorse since. The only two IL placements of Burnes’ career have been for an oblique strain and for Covid. He’s never had an arm injury. Burnes has pitched at least 193 innings in each of the past three seasons (and 167 or more in each of the past four).
The Orioles gave up two top prospects (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) and their 2024 Competitive Balance draft pick in order to acquire one year of Burnes from the Brewers. It was a strong return that speaks to the manner in which Burnes is perceived around the sport. He rewarded that weighty price by giving the O’s 32 starts and his fourth sub-3.00 ERA in the past five seasons. Burned tallied 194 1/3 innings in Baltimore, notched a 2.92 ERA, and then held the Royals to just one run in eight innings, coming out on the losing end of a masterful playoff pitcher’s duel against Cole Ragans.
Dating back to 2021, Burnes ranks fourth among all big league pitchers with 757 innings pitched. He’s sixth in ERA in that time, with a 2.94 mark that’s a near-mirror image of his 2024 season. Burnes threw harder than ever with the Orioles, averaging a career-best 95.3 mph on his devastating cutter and 97 mph on his seldom-used two-seamer. This year’s 6.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career and his lowest mark since the 5.2% rate he turned in during his Cy Young-winning 2021 campaign.
Burnes checks so many boxes for what teams would seek in a playoff-caliber starter, but he’s not without red flags. The right-hander might be throwing as hard as he ever has been, but he’s also missing bats at the lowest rate of his big league career. His 2024 strikeout rate clocked in at 23.1%. The league-average pitcher this season sat at 22.6% (22% flat, for starters). Burnes allowed more contact on pitches within the strike zone than he has at any point in his career. Hitters connected on 86.8% of their swings at in-zone pitches against Burnes — a massive increase from the 80.5% mark he showed back in 2021.
It’s possible there’s still upside for a bit more, as Burnes’ 12.9% swinging-strike rate is two percentage points north of league-average, but Burnes is no longer the bat-missing strikeout monster he was earlier in his career, when he punched out 36% of opponents in 2020-21.
Even if Burnes never gets that strikeout rate back up into the 30s, he’s still a durable pitcher who throws hard, rarely walks opponents, misses bats at an above-average level and manages contact well. He received a qualifying offer and will turn it down without a second thought. While Burnes’ reputation might lead some to think he could top $250MM, we’re predicting a more “modest” total based on the dip in strikeouts and swinging strikes. Burnes is still clearly a very good pitcher who’d be the No. 1 arm on the majority of pitching staffs around the league, and a $200MM guarantee is nothing to sneeze at. Only eight pitchers have ever reached that threshold in the past. Burnes will look to become the ninth, and he’ll have no shortage of interested suitors. Beyond the incumbent Orioles, it’s likely that the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Tigers and Mets (where former Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns is now running the show) will all show some degree of interest.
3. Alex Bregman: Seven years, $182MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Astros / Steve: Mariners
At the beginning of the 2024 season, Bregman looked lost. The two-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger winner flailed through the 2024 campaign’s first six weeks, slashing an anemic .201/.270/.264 through May 12 — his first 159 plate appearances of the season. It’s hard to start a platform season before free agency much worse.
On May 13, Bregman connected on a pair of home runs — his second and third of the season — and things began to click. By Memorial Day weekend, he looked fully back on track, homering five times in a span of seven games as he continued to pull his batting line out of the gutter. From the point of that two-homer breakout onward, Bregman tallied 475 plate appearances and posted a .279/.331/.515 batting line — 39% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. He finished out the season with 26 homers, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and three steals. Both Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Average (6) agree that his defense remained quite strong.
As is always the case, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts, fanning in only 13.6% of his plate appearances — practically a dead match for his career 13.4% mark. Outside of a 24% strikeout rate in his 49-game rookie showing back in 2016, Bregman has never punched out in even 16% of his plate appearances during a season. It was nearly impossible to get a fastball by him in 2024. Statcast measured his whiff rate against fastballs at 8.7%, the lowest rate he’s ever posted in a full season. Only 2% of big league hitters had a lower overall whiff rate in 2024 than Bregman. His bat-to-ball skills are elite.
On top of the on-field performance, Bregman will draw interest because of his clubhouse presence. He’s regarded as a fiery clubhouse leader. Jose Altuve has publicly campaigned for Astros ownership to keep Bregman in Houston several times throughout the season’s second half. One rival general manager who hopes to sign Bregman told ESPN’s Jeff Passan late in the season: “He would completely change our clubhouse for the better.”
Bregman isn’t without red flags, however, even setting aside that rough start in 2024. The 30-year-old former No. 2 overall draft pick saw his walk rate nearly cut in half, dropping from 12.7% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024. From 2018-23, Bregman drew a free pass in nearly 14% of his trips to the plate. The resulting .315 on-base percentage this year was downright pedestrian. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Bregman clearly didn’t suddenly lose all recognition of the strike zone. His chase rate on pitches off the plate spiked, but only relative to his own excellent standards. In the six prior seasons, Bregman chased only 17.1% of pitches off the plate. In 2024, that jumped to 22.2% — a notable increase but also still way below the 28.6% leaguewide average. The uptick in chases was reflective of a generally more aggressive approach. Bregman swung at 44.9% of the pitches he saw in ’24, compared to just 38% from 2018-23. His contact rates remained elite.
There’s perhaps some temptation to think that a pull-oriented righty hitter like Bregman is a product of Minute Maid Park’s short left-field porch: the Crawford Boxes. He indeed hit for more power in Houston this season than on the road, but his career splits tell another story. Since his 2016 debut, Bregman has slashed .270/.369/.476 at home and .275/.362/.489 on the road. He’s been effectively the same hitter, regardless of setting, and if anything has shown slightly more power away from Minute Maid Park.
It’s also worth mentioning Bregman’s participation in the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts during the 2017-18 seasons. Bregman issued a vague apology in the wake of the scandal breaking. The scandal did not seem to affect the markets of other participants such as George Springer and Carlos Correa, though it’s likely not all executives and players would welcome Bregman.
Bregman isn’t hitting free agency at the ideal time. He’ll play next season at 31. That’s not “old” for a free agent, but it’ll likely prevent him from securing anything larger than a seven-year deal. In fact, only two hitters in the past decade have signed a free-agent deal of seven years or more heading into free agency ahead of their age-31 season or later: Marcus Semien and Aaron Judge. Good as a player as Bregman is, he’s not Judge. Semien stands as a more plausible comp, however. Bregman and agent Scott Boras will surely be seeking a $200MM+ guarantee, but that’s a lofty target for someone who’s already completed his age-30 season.
Whether a seven-year deal (or more) is there remains to be seen, but he should find offers of at least six years. Matt Chapman just signed a six-year, $151MM extension beginning in his age-32 season. That’s going to be viewed as something of a floor for Bregman, and he should top that as the younger and more consistent offensive player.
The incumbent Astros have would surely love to have Bregman back, but GM Dana Brown has already foreshadowed some payroll constraints. They’ve also never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year extension ($115MM) or larger than Jose Altuve’s $151MM pact. Re-signing Bregman would very likely require setting a new benchmark for the organization. It seems likelier that he’ll reject a qualifying offer and net them a draft pick.
If not Houston, Bregman could see interest from the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Tigers and Royals. Detroit will draw plenty of rumors due to Bregman’s ties to manager A.J. Hinch. The Mets could move Mark Vientos to first base if Pete Alonso departs. The Mariners have never given out a contract of this magnitude under Jerry Dipoto but have been looking to reshape their offense and cut their strikeout rate for several years. The Royals have never spent like this in free agency but did just sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a mega-deal. It’s not completely out of the question that a team could sign Bregman to play shortstop for a season or two before moving him to third base, either, which could lead to some surprise suitors.
4. Blake Snell: Five years, $160MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Dodgers
Snell won the second Cy Young Award of his career in 2023, rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres and hit the market in search of the rare $200MM deal for a starting pitcher. That’s an understandable goal for a two-time Cy Young winner, but it didn’t happen. After languishing on the market all winter, he signed a two-year deal with the Giants in spring training — one that allowed him to opt out following the contract’s first year.
The contract immediately looked like a mistake. Snell rushed through his ramp-up to the season and was absolutely shelled in his first three starts as a Giant: 11 2/3 innings, 15 earned runs. The Giants placed him on the injured list with an adductor strain, though plenty of cynics chalked it up to a phantom IL stint for a pitcher who’d overplayed his hand in free agency and was paying the price. Snell’s return only further fueled that narrative. He was activated, made three more starts with a 7.50 ERA, and went back on the IL with a groin strain. He’d made six starts and posted a 9.51 ERA. Snell’s start was so catastrophic that he wasn’t even a consideration for the June edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings.
Then, Snell got healthy. The left-hander returned on July 9 with five shutout innings over the Blue Jays and never looked back. He yielded only two earned runs over five starts, spanning 33 innings. That was headlined by a no-hitter against the Reds at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park and by a similarly eye-popping 15-strikeout performance against the Rockies. From July 9 through season’s end, Snell didn’t just recapture his Cy Young form — he improved upon it. He was the best pitcher on the planet for three months, rattling off 80 1/3 innings with a downright comical 1.23 ERA. He fanned a whopping 38.1% of his opponents. Snell won a Cy Young in ’23 in spite of a 13.3% walk rate; down the stretch in ’24, he walked 10% of his opponents. That’s still higher than the 8.2% league average but is nevertheless a major improvement.
The very idea of Snell opting out of his contract would’ve seemed laughable at the season’s halfway point. Now, he’s made those first six starts look like an aberration. What was once a screaming red flag now looks more like a genuine injury-related outlier. Over his past 84 big league starts (dating back to the Padres’ pitching coach change in 2021, when Snell noticeably altered his pitch usage), Snell has posted a 2.72 ERA and fanned 33.1% of his opponents against an 11.2% walk rate. That’s including that calamitous start to the 2024 season. We can’t simply ignore those starts — they happened — but if you’re willing to genuinely chalk it up to injury and the lack of a proper spring training and set those six games aside, Snell’s ERA in that same span drops to 2.35.
Snell will perhaps always have some degree of ups and downs. It’s inevitable for a pitcher who has elite stuff but below-average command. But, even if he’s something of a slow starter, he finds his groove practically every season. I took a look at Snell’s resurgence late in the 2024 campaign and came to the conclusion that he could stake a claim as being one of the greatest second-half pitchers in MLB history. Snell has by no means been a “bad” first-half pitcher, but his career ERAs in July, August and September are 2.43, 2.44 and 2.14. He has a 3.33 ERA in 48 1/3 postseason innings.
The biggest flaw for Snell at this point doesn’t have anything to do with his raw ability — it’s simply that he’ll pitch next season at 32. There’s been exactly one deal longer than five years for a pitcher beginning in his age-32 season or later over the past decade: Zack Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. That deal stunned the baseball world at the time and has been proven a clear outlier since.
Snell and Boras could try to repeat that feat and secure six years. Snell has pitched at such a high level that it’s easy to see his argument for doing so. But the likelier outcome is a shorter-term deal — four years at a super-premium annual rate or five years at a very strong (but slightly lesser) annual rate. We’re going with the latter for our prediction. The Giants aren’t likely to re-sign him, as deftly laid out by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, but Snell will have no shortage of big-money and/or clean-payroll teams pursuing him. The Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Orioles, Tigers, Padres and Cubs will all be in the market for starting pitching this winter. The Yankees had interest last offseason and could consider another run at Snell if Soto signs elsewhere. Snell can’t receive a second qualifying offer, which only helps his case.
Signed with Dodgers for five years, $182MM. Includes deferred money.
5. Willy Adames: Six years, $160MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Giants
Adames has rare power for a shortstop, topping 30 homers in two of the past three seasons — including in 2024, when he swatted a career-high 32 taters. Over the past four seasons, no shortstop has hit more than Adames, who’s tied with Corey Seager for the lead at the position (112). Strikeouts have been an issue in the past, but Adames has dropped his strikeout rate in four straight seasons now and just posted the best in-zone contact rate of his career (84.2%). Adames’ 25.1% strikeout rate is the lowest he’s posted in a full season. He doesn’t have elite exit velocity or hard-hit rates, but his barrel rate (as measured by Statcast) is consistently excellent. The average MLB player carried a 7.8% barrel rate in 2024; Adames was at 12% and owns a combined 12.2% barrel rate over the past four seasons.
Heading into the 2024 season, Adames was regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball — perhaps the second-best. Swanson won the NL Gold Glove at the position in both 2022 and 2023, but Adames combined for 25 Outs Above Average and 17 Defensive Runs Saved in that time. (Dansby Swanson was at 40 and 27, respectively.) His 2024 season, however, brought a surprising and substantial decline. Adames made a career-worst 20 errors. DRS pegged him at a stunning -16, while OAA dropped his glovework to average. Statcast still measured Swanson’s range and arm strength to both be well above average, which is more encouraging if he’d had a stark decline in either.
Adames’ reps at CAA Baseball will need to convince interested teams that the rash of errors isn’t something that will repeat itself. Eight of the 20 errors came in a span of just three weeks from late July through mid-August, and perhaps they’ll try to sell that as a brief period where his defensive mechanics slipped or where he was playing through a minor injury. Regardless of whatever explanation is offered, it’s an alarming trend for a typically surehanded defender with plus range.
As Adames’ defense slipped, his baserunning strengthened. He stole a career-high 21 bases in 2024 and was extremely efficient in doing so, getting caught just four times (84% success). Adames entered the season with only 30 total steals in his career. The uptick in running was perhaps due to the Brewers’ managerial change, as multiple members of the Milwaukee roster posted career-high totals and the team ranked second in MLB after not placing higher than tenth since 2019. Whatever the reason, Adames showed himself to be a savvy base stealer despite possessing exactly average sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec).
Adames hits the market having just turned 29. That puts him at the same age each of Swanson ($177MM), Trevor Story ($140MM) and Javier Baez ($140MM) each scored highly lucrative long-term deals. Granted, none of those contract has panned out as hoped so far, but the outcome of other contracts typically hasn’t prevented players of similar ages/profiles from doing well on the market. The incumbent Brewers love Adames but probably won’t be in the mix if the bidding reaches the point we’re predicting here at MLBTR. Other possibilities include the Giants, Dodgers and Tigers. Some clubs could also view Adames as a third base option, which would open up fits with any of the Yankees, Royals, Mariners, and Mets. The Braves are an oft-cited fit and have a clear need at shortstop, but they’re already facing a massive luxury tax bill and typically haven’t spent at this level in free agency, preferring to extend younger players.
Signed with Giants for seven years, $182MM.
6. Max Fried: Six years, $156MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Dodgers / Darragh: Cubs / Steve: Cubs
Fried doesn’t have the Cy Young Awards of the earlier pitchers on the list, but he has a pair of top-five finishes (including a 2022 runner-up showing) and has been the anchor of Atlanta’s rotation for more than a half decade. He’s all but a lock to post a low-3.00s or upper-2.00s ERA every season, with his earned run average clocking in at 3.25 or lower in each of the past five. Fried has a combined 2.81 ERA in 112 starts in that time.
While he’s not the prototypical bat-missing ace who’ll regularly pile up strikeouts in droves, Fried has solid and consistent velocity from the left side, averaging either 93.9 mph or 94.0 mph on his four-seamer in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. His strikeout rate in that time is slightly above-average but not elite, at 23.7%. What has been elite is Fried’s command (combined 6.1% walk rate over the past four seasons) and his ability to pile up grounders. Fried has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 51% — league-average in 2024 was 42.2% — and he peaked with an outstanding 58.8% this past season. Framber Valdez was the only qualified starter in baseball with a better mark.
That penchant for grounders helps Fried avoid the long ball better than most pitchers; he hasn’t averaged even 0.9 homers per nine innings since his first full season, in 2019. Since 2020, the only qualified starters in MLB with a lower HR/9 mark are the aforementioned Valdez and fellow ground-ball wizard Logan Webb. During that same time, not one of the qualified 143 starting pitchers has a lower opponents’ barrel rate than Fried’s 4.7%. Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher in that time with a lower average exit velocity on his batted balls; he’s at 86 mph to Fried’s 86.1. Fried might not reach double-digit strikeouts as often as many of his fellow aces, but he’s also going to avoid hard contact better than just about any of them.
While it’d be a misnomer to label Fried an injury-prone pitcher, the past two seasons have raised some degree of red flags. Fried was limited to 14 starts in 2023 by a forearm strain. He did not require surgery and was excellent both before and after the injury. He bounced back with 29 starts and 174 1/3 innings during the 2024 regular season, but the few starts he missed were due to an injury in that same forearm. This wasn’t a strain but rather an inflamed nerve. Still, he’ll enter next year as a 31-year-old starter who’s had IL stints owing to forearm troubles in consecutive seasons. The 2024 workload and the nature of his 2024 injury aren’t nearly as worrying as their 2023 counterparts, but it’s not an ideal set of circumstances for any pitcher.
Furthermore, while Fried has generally avoided major injuries aside from that 2023 strain, he’s also a bit less than a consummate workhorse who’ll provide bulk innings. He’s never started more than 30 games in a single season and only topped 180 innings once. He might not get hurt for long periods of time, but he’s not consistently turning out 32-33 starts and 180-200 innings per season, either. It’d be fair for any club to expect that even in a good season, Fried will miss two or three starts. That’s not a backbreaking factor but is still something a club will consider, given the magnitude of the contract he’ll be seeking and quite likely will command.
The Braves love Fried and would love to have him back. He made his feelings toward Atlanta clear in an emotional interview after the team’s season ended. That said, the Braves have had more than six years to hammer out an extension and haven’t gotten there. Atlanta hasn’t gone past $22MM in annual salary on any of the long-term extensions they’ve doled out to their core. Fried seems overwhelmingly likely to command a good bit more than that on a per-year basis, and because of their immense swath of extensions, the Braves are now facing a weighty luxury-tax bill. Re-signing Fried would effectively cement them as perennial luxury payors — likely requiring them to go into the upper tiers of penalization on a yearly basis. The Athletic’s David O’Brien recently suggested that the Braves aren’t likely to get into a bidding war for Fried, but has since taken note of how the team has moved money off the books. It’s still worth considering how long they’ve gone without an extension, and that jam-packed luxury ledger.
Atlanta will probably be involved to a point, but the years and dollars being discussed will likely quickly escalate beyond their comfort zone, given those factors. Other teams who could make a play for Fried include the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Orioles, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers. Six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age-31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester). Fried is all but a lock to command a five-year deal and stands a good chance at becoming the sixth 31-year-old to reach that six-year term, even after he makes the obvious decision to reject a qualifying offer.
Signed with Yankees for eight years, $218MM.
7. Pete Alonso: Five years, $125MM
Tim: Nationals / Anthony: Nationals / Darragh: Nationals / Steve: Mets
Alonso will be among the more divisive free agents on this year’s class. On one hand, he’s been among the game’s most consistent power threats from the moment he set foot in MLB. Only Aaron Judge (232) has more home runs than Alonso’s 226 dating back to 2019. Third place isn’t especially close. Kyle Schwarber sits at 212. Matt Olson (206) and Shohei Ohtani (203) are the only others who have even topped 180. Alonso’s raw power is elite, and he generally has little problem getting to it in a game setting.
Durability plays a significant role in Alonso’s power totals as well and will be a big marketing point in his favor. He’s never missed more than 10 games in a given season, nor has he checked in south of 637 plate appearances in a 162-game campaign. Only Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman have drawn more plate appearances than Alonso since 2019. Any team that signs Alonso can feel good about the fact that they’re adding a day-in, day-out source of game-changing power to the middle of their order.
The rest of Alonso’s skill set, however, is at odds with many of the traits modern front offices value when shopping on the open market. He’s limited to first base and isn’t an especially good defender there. Defensive Runs Saved has him about average in his career but a negative (-3) in 2024. Statcast’s Outs Above Average has consistently panned his glovework, never more so than in 2024 (-8). He’s also a well below-average runner, with his sprint speed landing at 26.1 feet per second — just in the 20th percentile of big league hitters.
Alonso doesn’t strike out or walk as often as the prototypical “three true outcomes” hitter. He’s fanned in 22.8% of his career plate appearances (24.7% in 2024). His 9.9% walk rate (10.1% in ’24) is above average but far from plus. He’s never walked at a higher clip than the 10.4% he did as a rookie and never walked in fewer than 9.4% of his plate appearances. Between his good-not-great walk rate, penchant for infield flies and plodding speed, Alonso tends to have fairly pedestrian on-base percentages. He’s at .339 for his career but just .324 over the past two seasons. He popped 34 homers in his platform year, but that’s a career-low mark in a 162-game season (as was his .219 ISO).
Supporters of Alonso will tout his consistent power, his durability and his flair for the dramatic. He’s a regular participant in the Home Run Derby and won the event in 2021. The Polar Bear was at his best under the bright lights of October, hitting .273/.431/.568 (176 wRC+) with four homers during the Mets’ postseason run. That includes a ninth-inning three-run shot off Milwaukee closer Devin Williams that effectively propelled the Mets from the Wild Card round into the NLDS.
Detractors will label Alonso as one-dimensional. He’s as prominent a source of power as you’ll find in the game but isn’t really plus in any other area. He’s heading into his age-30 season, which is fairly standard. He’s not “old” but also doesn’t have the benefit of youth on his side.
Back in 2023, the Mets reportedly offered Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension that would’ve covered his the 2024-30 seasons. He (obviously) did not accept. Alonso took home a $20.5MM salary in his final arbitration season, which would’ve been year one of that contract. With anything north of $138MM, he can come ahead in that bet on himself. Even if he takes a heftier AAV on a five-year arrangement, that can be considered a win.
We debated a wide range of contracts for Alonso. He’s an imperfect free agent who 15 years ago would’ve likely been a lock for $200MM+, given his gaudy counting stats. Today’s front offices care more about defensive utility and on-base percentage, however. If Alonso and Scott Boras go out seeking $200MM+, there’s a real possibility for a Cody Bellinger situation where he’s left to take a short-term deal with opt-outs. We’re going with a five-year deal at a heftier AAV than the one he turned down, and it’s possible there’ll be some opt-outs or convoluted options woven throughout as well. Alonso technically comes out “behind” his reported extension offer with this prediction, but only because we’re putting him down for one fewer season. If he tops $12MM after a five-year deal — certainly plausible — or secures some kind of opt-out or player option, he could realistically end up ahead in the end. He’ll reject a qualifying offer and could draw interest from the Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, Nationals and (of course) the incumbent Mets.
8. Jack Flaherty: Five years, $115MM
Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Tigers
As far as “prove-it” deals go, Flaherty stands as one of the most successful cases in recent memory. The former first-round pick and top prospect went from one of the National League’s burgeoning young aces to an injury reclamation in a span of just a few years, as shoulder injuries derailed his momentum after a brilliant 2019 campaign. He had a full, healthy season between the Cardinals and Orioles in 2023 but hit the market on the heels of a 4.99 ERA. Baltimore had acquired him in hopes of unlocking some of his prior form and cashing in down the stretch and into the playoffs. Instead, they dropped him to the bullpen after he posted a 7.11 ERA in seven starts.
The Tigers signed Flaherty, still just 28 last offseason, to a one-year deal worth $14MM. It took very little time for the move to look prescient. Flaherty pitched to a 4.00 ERA through the end of April but ended the month on a high note, with starts featuring 10 and 14 strikeouts. By mid-June, he was sitting on a 2.92 ERA through 14 starts and had emerged as one of the clearest trade candidates on the market. (Little did anyone know that the Tigers would break out as the game’s hottest post-deadline team and reach the postseason, even after trading Flaherty to the Dodgers.)
Flaherty posted a 2.95 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate in 18 brilliant starts with Detroit. He wasn’t quite as good with Los Angeles, but he still gave the Dodgers 55 1/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball, fanning 26.1% of his opponents against an 8.1% walk rate. The season-long numbers remained strong overall, and Flaherty will now return to the open market ahead of his age-29 season — making him the youngest of the top end starters available — and without a qualifying offer, as he’s ineligible to receive one after being traded midseason.
There could be some questions about his health over a long-term deal. Beyond the previously noted shoulder injuries that hampered him earlier in his career, there were concerns about the health of his back leading into the trade deadline. The Yankees reportedly reached a preliminary agreement on a deal to acquire Flaherty but nixed the trade after reviewing the right-hander’s medical records. That eventually led Flaherty to instead be traded to the Dodgers for what some at the time considered a light return. (Catcher Thayron Liranzo has since mashed his way onto top-100 rankings, while Trey Sweeney came to the majors and became Detroit’s starting shortstop down the stretch, all of which has presumably altered some perceptions of the deal.)
Flaherty reached the majors as a touted prospect, had some early success before injuries clouded his outlook and then required multiple changes of scenery before truly breaking out. There are some Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray parallels in terms of career arc, but Flaherty is reaching the market two years younger than Gausman and one year younger than Ray. Those aren’t perfect comps, as Gausman had consecutive excellent seasons under his belt while Ray won a Cy Young prior to his own free agency. That pair of pitchers signed five-year deals worth $110MM and $115MM, respectively. Between age and the lack of a QO, we’re expecting Flaherty to land a somewhat improved version of that deal, though it’s certainly possible that his injury history stops things at four years (or that interest is fierce enough to push to six at a slightly lower AAV).
Both of Flaherty’s 2024 teams could pursue a reunion. The Dodgers and Tigers will both be in the mix for starters this winter. We know the Yankees had deadline interest. The same teams listed as viable suitors for Burnes, Snell and Fried all apply here, though it’s hard to imagine the Orioles handing out a nine-figure deal after their trade for Flaherty didn’t pan out well in 2023. The contract we’re predicting is far enough below that top trio that some smaller-market clubs could plausibly join the Red Sox, Mets, Giants, etc. in pursuit.
9. Anthony Santander: Four years, $80MM
Tim: Royals / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Yankees
If you’re a fan of old school sluggers who mash taters and rack up ribbies, Santander is your kind of guy. “Tony Taters” left the yard a career-high 44 times in 2024 and plated 102 runs along the way. The 30-year-old switch-hitter battered opponents with total disregard of handedness, showing huge power against righties and lefties alike. (Notably, he was a bit more strikeout prone as a right-hander facing lefties.) Santander has now clubbed 105 homers and driven in 286 runners over the past three seasons — all while running a lower-than-average 20.5% strikeout rate.
Unfortunately for Santander, today’s brand of front office isn’t as enamored of counting stats as the prior generation. On-base percentage and defense are en vogue, and as thunderous as his bat has been, his rate stats and glovework are less encouraging. Santander has only posted an average walk rate twice in his career, and both times (2022 and 2024) he did so by less than half a percentage point. This past season’s 8.7% walk rate was his career-high, but it was accompanied by a career-low .235 average and thus a below-average .308 on-base percentage. Santander ranks 19th among 364 qualified hitters with 154 home runs dating back to 2019 … and is tied for 250th with a .310 OBP.
Defensively, Santander hasn’t necessarily been a butcher, but he’s a below-average corner outfielder. Statcast measures his average sprint speed at 26 feet per second, which puts him in just the 18th percentile of big leaguers. Unsurprisingly, his range in the outfield is well below average, landing in the 28th percentile. Santander has above average life on his throws from the outfield but isn’t the most accurate. A team could certainly live with his defense in right or left field for a couple seasons, but it’s unlikely to improve at this stage of his career and certainly isn’t going to be an asset. It’s not had to envision a scenario where Santander looks like a player who needs to be limited to DH work by the second or third season of a multi-year deal.
The good news, of course, is that he has plenty of bat to be a designated hitter — or perhaps to try his hand at first base, if the signing team prefers. Santander has been 24% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+, over the past three seasons (19% over the past five). This year’s home run barrage could prove to be a high point in his career, but he belted 28 homers in 2023 and 33 in 2022. He’s a genuine 30-homer bat who handles himself well from both sides of the plate and can at least capably handle a corner spot for a year or two. That’s an undeniably nice player to have.
We’ve seen this type of profile command multi-year deals in the $20MM range. Kyle Schwarber signed for four years and $79MM with the Phillies, who then gave Nick Castellanos five years and $100MM that same offseason. It’s been seven years since J.D. Martinez signed for five years and $110MM with the Red Sox, but that’s another example. Santander’s minimal walk rates and low averages create a more worrisome OBP floor than those sluggers, but he has more defensive value right now than any of them did at the time they reached free agency. He’ll very likely reject his qualifying offer and market his big bat to a slew of power-hungry teams. The Reds, Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Nationals and Guardians all make some sense.
10. Sean Manaea: Three years, $60MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Cubs / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Mets
This is the third straight offseason in which Manaea is a free agent. During his previous trips, he signed two-year pacts for under $30MM that allowed him to opt out after the first season. This winter should be a different story. Manaea declined a $13.5MM player option with the Mets and is poised to secure the biggest deal of his career.
Manaea had spent most of 2023 in a swing role with the Giants. He signed in Queens for a rotation spot and made the most of it. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. He was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1. That didn’t quite carry into October, as Manaea turned in a 4.74 ERA in four playoff starts.
The strong finish coincided with a mechanical tweak. The left-hander dropped his arm angle gradually over the final couple weeks of the season. He leaned more heavily into a sinker while essentially dropping his four-seam fastball by September. The early returns were promising. Manaea has performed at a mid-rotation level before. He turned in a trio of sub-4.00 ERA campaigns early in his career with the A’s. This was the best year of his career, as he set a career high in innings while running his lowest ERA in a full season.
As expected, the Mets issued a qualifying offer to Manaea, which figures to dampen his market for certain suitors.
Manaea turns 33 in February. There’s no much recent precedent for teams going to four years for a pitcher’s age 33-36 seasons. Manaea should get three years, though, with his camp presumably shooting for a deal like the $63MM contract that Chris Bassitt secured at age 34. Tyler Anderson’s $39MM deal feels like the floor. The Mets could bring Manaea back. They’ll face competition from teams like the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, Blue Jays, Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers, among others.
Signed with Mets for three years, $75MM.
11. Teoscar Hernandez: Three years, $60MM
Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: Royals / Steve: Tigers
Apparently we’re sticking with the “prove-it” crowd here, as Hernandez wasn’t able to land the multi-year deal he was seeking last offseason and instead pivoted to a short-term deal with a contender. Agent Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports tweeted in October that Hernandez had been seeking a three-year contract last offseason — not an unreasonable ask for a player of his caliber, but Hernandez was coming off a down season in Seattle at a time when many of his potential suitors were tightening the purse strings amid uncertainty regarding their television broadcasts. Putting down a relatively weighty three-year deal on a rebound candidate was apparently a bridge too far.
The Dodgers benefited from the market’s inactivity, swooping in with a one-year, $23MM offer that installed Hernandez as their primary left fielder and a heart-of-the-order fixture. Hernandez appeared in 154 games and slashed .272/.339/.501 with a career-high 33 home runs. His 134 wRC+, indicating he was 34% better than a league-average hitter, fell right back in line with his 2020 (142), 2021 (132) and 2022 (130) marks — making the 106 he notched in his lone year with the Mariners look like an anomaly.
Hernandez makes consistent, thunderous contact. He’s never posted an average exit velocity under 90 mph nor a hard-hit rate under 46%. His barrel rate over the past is a whopping 14.3% — nearly double the 7.8% league average from 2024. He strikes out too much (28.8% in 2024) and hits far more grounders than one would expect from such a prodigious slugger (46.5% in 2024; 44.6% over the past three seasons).
However, Hernandez is also a deceptively fast runner, clocking into the 83rd percentile of MLB hitters. That allows him to turn some of those grounders into hits and to take the occasional extra base, stretching a single into a double. He swiped 12 bags this past season, tying a career-high, and was caught only three times. Because Hernandez hits the ball so hard and runs better than many realize, his batting average is typically high enough to offset a perennially below-average walk rate. He has a .328 OBP since 2020 (including a .339 mark in 2024) despite carrying a 6.6% walk rate in that span (8.1% in ’24).
While his speed once allowed him to at least handle center field on a part-time basis, the now-32-year-old Hernandez is strictly limited to corner work. He also graded quite poorly there in 2024, though some of that could be playing in left field for the first time since 2021. With the Dodgers, he posted far better marks in his more limited time in right field — his primary position with the Jays and Mariners from 2021-23.
The three-year deal that eluded Hernandez should be there this time around, even though he’s now saddled with a qualifying offer. Hernandez will surely reject — he’s not taking a pay cut after the year he just had — and there are enough teams looking for power bats that he’ll be a coveted name. We’ve marked him down below Santander simply due to the fact that he’ll play next season at 32 to Santander’s 30, but they’re comparable players who’ll have overlapping markets. The Tigers are specifically looking for a big right-handed bat this winter, and the Red Sox — who according to Hernandez himself offered him a two-year, $28MM deal last winter — are also looking to add a righty outfielder to balance out the lineup. The Reds, Blue Jays, Giants, Royals, Nats and Guards all make sense as well.
12. Yusei Kikuchi: Three years, $60MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Orioles
“Mercurial” and “roller coaster” don’t really begin to describe Kikuchi’s big league tenure. The hard-throwing lefty has looked on the cusp of stardom at multiple points since coming to MLB in 2019 after a fine career with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s also lost his rotation spot more than once and saw the Mariners decline a multi-year club option when the first three seasons of his contract came to an end.
Back at the 2021 All-Star break, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about what looked to be a breakout season for Kikuchi. His velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and grounder rate had all taken strides. Kikuchi pitched to a 3.18 ERA with plus rate stats through the season’s first half and looked to suddenly be putting himself in position to see the Mariners exercise a weighty four-year, $66MM club option. He promptly faded, running out of gas as he pitched to a 6.62 ERA and yielded an average of 1.70 HR/9 down the stretch.
Even with that poor finish, Kikuchi declined a $13MM player option, betting that a team would be interested in his blend of velocity, whiffs, grounders and solid command. He and the Boras Corporation were correct. The Jays signed him for three years and $36MM, and his tenure in Toronto had a similar vibe to his time in Seattle. Plenty of high points, but also quite a few lows and even a demotion from the rotation. Kikuchi was a hotly sought-after name on the summer trade market, drawing interest from clubs like the Twins, Cardinals and others. But the Astros blew everyone out of the water to acquire two months of Kikuchi, and while the price they paid was steep, his results in Houston showed why they were so intrigued.
With the Astros, Kikuchi more than doubled the usage of his slider, reducing his four-seam usage and nearly shelving his curveball. The results were eye-popping. In 60 innings, he pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a gaudy 31.8% strikeout rate against an excellent 5.9% walk rate. Kikuchi’s 13.7% swinging-strike rate was well north of the 11.1% league average. His grounder rate increased. The quality of contact against him decreased. Down the stretch, he looked like a clear, playoff-caliber No. 2 type of starter.
Just which version of Kikuchi a new team gets will be an open question. Is he the at-times dominant lefty who can pile up strikeouts in droves and limit walks to the point that an ERA in the low-3.00s or upper-2.00s seems plausible? Or is he the same enigmatic, homer-prone southpaw he’s always been? Kikuchi’s individual skills have impressed for years now, but the sum of those parts has somehow been lesser than those individual components.
That said, Kikuchi can’t receive a qualifying offer and is a hard-throwing lefty who’s posted a plus strikeout rate five years running — including a plus walk rate to match in each of the past two seasons. He’s also been ultra-durable in his MLB career, with his only two IL stints coming due to Covid in 2021 and a neck strain in 2022. Toronto gambled on his upside in the form of a three-year deal when he was coming off a poor finish. The inverse is true now. Kikuchi will turn 34 next June, but his stock is still up relative to his last trip to the market. The Astros would surely love to have him back but have foreshadowed payroll constraints. Other viable suitors include the Tigers, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers and Royals.
Signed with Angels for three years, $63MM.
13. Christian Walker: Three years, $60MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Astros
In April 2020, Steve Adams wrote a piece for the site entitled “The D-backs replaced Paul Goldschmidt with a waiver claim — and it worked.” At the time, Walker had waited five years for an everyday opportunity in the majors, languishing in Triple-A behind names like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto and the titular Goldschmidt while being passed around on waivers. The Snakes even succeeded in passing Walker through waivers unclaimed.
At the time, Walker was coming off one breakout season but had plenty of questions surrounding him. He’d hit 29 home runs but done so in the juiced-ball season of 2019. Was the power legitimate? Yes, he could play defense, but could he sustain his offensive production over a longer period and truly become a starting-caliber first baseman?
Yes. To all of it. And then some.
Walker has been one of the game’s most underrated and overlooked stars for the past several seasons. He’s a premium defender who has emerged as a consistent threat to swat 30 home runs in a given season. He no longer runs that well, but at his best he even had above-average speed. Walker has won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons and will probably win his third in 2024 after posting terrific marks in Outs Above Average (13) and Defensive Runs Saved (7). He made just two errors in 2024, his second straight season with only two on the year.
That defense and a sharp 9.9% walk rate across the past three seasons give Walker a nice floor even in the absence of offensive production, but that hasn’t been an issue for him. The slugger hit .251/.335/.468 with 26 homers in just 130 games this season. Were it not for an oblique strain that resulted in his first IL placement since 2021 (also for an oblique strain), he’d have topped 30 homers for a third straight season. Since Opening Day 2022, Walker is a .250/.332/.481 hitter. He torched lefties in 2022-23 while posting merely above-average numbers against righties, but his 2024 splits (and his career-long splits) are more balanced.
The sole reason that Walker seems limited to a three-year deal is age. He played this past season at 33 and will turn 34 during spring training next year. Were Walker a few years younger, he’d likely rank ahead of Alonso on this list, given his vastly superior defense. Three-year deals for first base/DH types at this age are rare but all generally fall in the same range. Jose Abreu received an ill-fated $58.5MM guarantee beginning in his age-36 season. Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana both signed for three years and $60MM — Encarnacion starting in his age-34 season and Santana in his age-32 season. Walker should follow suit with a three-year guarantee at around $20MM, give or take a million or two. The Astros, Mariners, Yankees, D-backs, Giants and Nats could be involved (as could the Mets, depending where Alonso signs).
Signed with Astros for three years, $60MM.
14. Tanner Scott: Four years, $56MM
Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Yankees
This year’s class doesn’t feature an Edwin Diaz or a Josh Hader — an elite closer who has pitched at an All-Star level for the bulk of their career. Scott, the best reliever in this year’s class, lands in the next tier down. A former Orioles draftee, Scott tantalized with huge arm strength but didn’t have the command necessary to hold a leverage spot in Baltimore. That initially continued when he was traded to the Marlins over the 2021-22 offseason, but the past two seasons have been a different story.
Scott fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball with a career-low 7.8% walk rate in 2023. He picked up 12 saves and 24 holds while working at the back of Skip Schumaker’s bullpen. Scott’s wildness returned early this past season, as he walked 13 of 61 batters faced through the end of April. He dialed back in once the calendar flipped to May, walking a manageable 9.9% of batters faced over the season’s final five months. Scott fanned nearly 31% of opponents while turning in a 1.52 ERA in 59 1/3 innings over that stretch.
The Padres acquired Scott alongside Bryan Hoeing in a deadline deal with the Marlins. The 30-year-old southpaw had an excellent second half and tossed 4 1/3 scoreless postseason innings with seven strikeouts (including a trio of punchouts of Shohei Ohtani in as many at-bats). Scott now has two seasons of elite production. Of the 97 relievers with at least 100 innings since the start of 2023, Scott trails only Emmanuel Clase with a 2.04 earned run average. His 31.3% strikeout rate checks in 15th among that group, while his 50.4% ground-ball percentage ranks 22nd.
Scott has two pitches: a 97 MPH heater and a slider that typically lands in the 88-89 MPH range. Even in an era with a ton of power bullpen arms, he has rare velocity for a southpaw. This year, Scott trailed only Jose A. Ferrer, Gregory Soto, Aroldis Chapman and Rays’ rookie Mason Montgomery in that regard. The arsenal plays against hitters of either handedness.
The Padres can’t make Scott a qualifying offer he was a midseason acquisition. San Diego seems unlikely to bring him back with the other needs on the roster. Scott is better than the relievers who have landed in the three-year, $30MM range (i.e. Robert Stephenson, Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero). He should get four years and has an outside shot at five. The four-year, $58MM deal which Raisel Iglesias signed with the Angels could be a target for his camp.
15. Luis Severino: Three years, $51MM
Tim: Nationals / Anthony: Tigers / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Giants
Somewhat similar to Flaherty, Severino looked the part of an emergent young ace before injuries completely upended his trajectory. A trio of lat strains (2019, 2022, 2023), a rotator cuff strain (2022) and Tommy John surgery (2020) limited Severino to just 209 innings from 2019-23. His 2023 campaign, preceding his first trip into free agency, resulted in a disastrous 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings.
The Mets signed Severino to a one-year, $13MM deal in the hope that he could rediscover some of the prior form that saw him reel off 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA and gaudy strikeout/walk rates from 2017-18 in the Bronx. Severino indeed bounced back, but not as well as the aforementioned Flaherty and not to the same level he showed early in his career. The right-hander logged 31 starts — his most since 2018 — and recorded a solid 3.91 earned run average.
There’s no denying that the 2024 season was a success for Severino. He’s now positioned to land a multi-year deal in free agency and should be coveted by a wide range of teams. However, his 21.2% strikeout rate is nowhere near its 29.4% peak. His 7.9% walk rate, while better than average, is a fair bit worse than the 5.9% mark he posted in his terrific 2018 season. A four-seamer that once averaged 97.6 mph instead sat at 96.2 mph in 2024. Again, that’s a strong mark, but Severino doesn’t have the same power profile he did during his age-23 and age-24 breakout seasons.
Nothing about Severino’s 2024 season was inherently bad. He pitched like a very solid No. 3/4 starter. But while Severino carries plenty of name value from his early days as a Yankee, he’s pitched more like another pair of former New York hurlers — Jameson Taillon (Yankees) and Taijuan Walker (Mets) — did ahead of their trips to free agency. Taillon landed four years and $68MM from the Cubs. Walker landed four years and $72MM from the Phillies.
Without a qualifying offer, we felt it was possible Severino might have gotten into that four-year, $70MM territory of Taillon and Walker. But having received such an offer, we’ve reduced our expectations to a three-year pact in the realm of the Royals’ new deal with Michael Wacha. Severino would improve the vast majority of big league rotations, and teams like the Red Sox, Reds, Giants, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Angels, Padres and Nats could all be in play. A return to Queens, remains a distinct possibility as well, particularly with the issuance of the qualifying offer.
Signed with Athletics for three years, $67MM.
16. Jurickson Profar: Three years, $45MM
Tim: Padres / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Padres
Profar finally turned in the kind of season that most evaluators anticipated a decade ago. The sport’s #1 prospect when he reached the majors with the Rangers in 2012, Profar has had a frustratingly inconsistent career. Throwing woes pushed him from second base to left field. That put more pressure on his bat, which has bounced from decent to poor over the years.
Things hit a new low in 2023. Profar signed with the Rockies for $7.75MM. He had a sub-replacement showing and was released late in the season. He returned to the Padres for the final few games of the season and re-signed on a $1MM pact for 2024. San Diego gave Profar the starting left field job almost by default. Even Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who has acquired the switch-hitter multiple times in his career, wouldn’t have foreseen a season like this.
Profar hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers while playing in 158 games. He set career marks in longballs and in all three slash stats. Profar deservedly earned his first All-Star nod. He finished seventh in MLB (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. The six players above him in OBP: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr.
When a player has this kind of an outlier season, it’s easy to assume it to be luck. That’s not the case here. Profar pushed his average exit velocity up nearly five miles per hour. He raised his hard contact rate (the percentage of batted balls hit 95+ MPH) by a staggering 13 percentage points. In 2023, Profar ranked between Willi Castro and Harrison Bader in hard contact. This year, he slotted between Carlos Correa and Jorge Soler. He got to that power without losing any of the plate discipline or bat-to-ball skills that have always been his best asset. He showed he could maintain that level for one season. Do teams believe he has finally found an All-Star level or view this year as punching above his weight?
The payroll-strapped Padres chose not to issue Profar a qualifying offer, so he’ll reach the market without the burden felt by players like Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.
Profar returns to free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal than he got last winter. He’ll be 32 in February. His camp could look for four years, but that essentially hasn’t been attainable for non-star hitters at that age. Mitch Haniger landed three years and $43.5MM as a corner bat at the same age. Profar’s camp will aim higher than that. The Padres would certainly love to have him back, but it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to make that work with other needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Royals, Reds, Blue Jays, Angels, Pirates, Phillies and Braves could also have interest.
17. Nathan Eovaldi: Two years, $44MM
Tim: Yankees / Anthony: Orioles / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Rangers
This is the fourth free agency trip for Eovaldi, who remains a strong mid-rotation starter. The Rangers benefited handsomely from signing the veteran righty to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2022-23 offseason. Eovaldi logged enough innings to unlock a $20MM player option for 2025 but declined it anyway, as he’s set for a similar or better salary on a multi-year deal.
Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.63 and 3.87 in five consecutive seasons. He misses bats at an above-average level and has excellent command. Over his two years in Arlington, he worked to a 3.72 earned run average with a 23.4% strikeout rate against a 7% walk percentage. His velocity hasn’t tailed off into his mid-30s. The two-time All-Star averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball and 88.4 MPH on the splitter that serves as his best swing-and-miss offering. He also owns a 3.05 ERA in 79 2/3 career postseason innings, including a win in Game 5 of last year’s World Series.
Durability has been a concern in the past. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his medical chart. Shoulder inflammation sidelined him late in the 2022 season, adding uncertainty to his previous free agent trip. His arm held up fairly well over his stint with the Rangers. He missed a month in ’23 with a forearm strain that didn’t require surgery. His only IL stint this past season was a three-week stint for a groin tweak. Eovaldi managed 170 2/3 innings of 3.80 ERA ball across 29 starts in his walk year.
The Rangers could not make him a qualifying offer. The Red Sox made Eovaldi a QO during his last free agent trip, rendering him ineligible. He won’t cost a signing team draft compensation. He turns 35 in February, so he’ll be limited to a short-term commitment. Even three years at that age is a tough sell. Eovaldi is likely looking at a high-AAV, two-year pact that beats the guarantee which he landed from Texas. He should top the $18.5MM AAV that Marcus Stroman landed last winter. Chris Bassitt signed for $21MM per season covering his ages 34-36 campaigns. Eovaldi should get a similar or slightly better salary over two years.
Texas president of baseball operations Chris Young said the Rangers hope to bring Eovaldi back. A return to Boston could make sense, while the Orioles, Rangers, Angels, Mets, Braves, Nationals, Tigers, Dodgers and Cubs are other possibilities.
Signed with Rangers for three years, $75MM.
18. Jeff Hoffman: Four years, $44MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Angels / Steve: Athletics
Hoffman has had a winding career arc. A former top ten pick of the Blue Jays, he was a top prospect who went to the Rockies in the Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster. Hoffman never made good on that promise in Colorado, posting a 6.40 ERA in parts of five seasons. He had a pair of up-and-down years with the Reds before catching on with the Phillies on a minor league deal early in 2023.
By that point, Hoffman looked to be heading into journeyman territory. Things clicked in Philadelphia. Hoffman found an extra three ticks on his fastball and broke out as an elite reliever. He tossed 52 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball while striking out a third of batters faced in 2023. The Phils made the easy call to bring him back for his final year of arbitration. Hoffman had an even better second season, working to a 2.17 ERA while striking out 33.6% of batters faced. He picked up 21 holds and 10 saves while only surrendering three leads in the regular season. While a rough Division Series ended the year on a sour note, Hoffman’s two-year track record is going to generate broad interest.
Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA since the start of 2023. That’s sixth lowest among relievers with 100+ innings. He’s sixth among that group in strikeout rate and seventh in swinging strike percentage, getting whiffs on 16.4% of his offerings. Hoffman has better command than Scott, the top reliever in the class. After struggling with home runs in Colorado, he has avoided the longball since landing in Philadelphia.
There are some similarities between Hoffman and last winter’s breakout free agent reliever, Robert Stephenson. (The two were ironically traded for one another when both were struggling former top prospects in 2020.) Where Stephenson had four months of excellence, Hoffman has multiple seasons. Stephenson’s three-year, $33MM deal feels like the floor. Hoffman could have enough buzz to get four years, though that’s not common for relievers going into their age-32 season. Raisel Iglesias signed for four years and $58MM at the same age, but he was an established closer as opposed to a setup arm.
Any contender could use Hoffman. The Phillies will need to replace him if they don’t bring him back. The Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Giants and Nationals are other potential fits.
19. Tyler O’Neill: Three years, $42MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Pirates / Steve: Pirates
Initially drafted by the Mariners, O’Neill was traded to St. Louis as a prospect in a swap for Marco Gonzales. He spent parts of six seasons with the Cardinals. That tenure was headlined by a brilliant 2021 season in which the chiseled slugger drilled 34 home runs while playing Gold Glove defense in left field. O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP balloting.
The Canadian-born outfielder hasn’t maintained that production with any kind of consistency. Nagging injury concerns and elevated strikeout tallies have made him a high-variance player. The Cards moved on from O’Neill last winter, dealing him to the Red Sox for a minimal return. The trade panned out for Boston, as he rebounded with his best season since the aforementioned ’21 campaign.
O’Neill drilled 31 home runs in just 473 plate appearances across 113 games. He hit .241/.336/.511 while drawing walks at a career-best 11.2% rate. He punched out in more than a third of his trips to the plate, so strikeouts remain a significant red flag. O’Neill has top-of-the-scale raw power, though, and he now has a pair of 30+ homer seasons to his name.
This year’s production skewed heavily in a platoon capacity. The righty-swinging O’Neill absolutely feasted on lefty pitching, tattooing them at a .313/.429/.750 clip with 16 homers in 156 plate appearances. He hit 15 longballs over 317 PAs versus righties, hitting .208/.290/.403 with a near-35% strikeout rate. O’Neill’s career splits aren’t quite that extreme, but it’s true that he’ll do most of his damage against southpaws. He’s a career .270/.376/.547 hitter against lefties. That drops to .239/.305/.446 against right-handed pitching.
The other red flag is the injury history. O’Neill has had 14 IL stints, including three this past season, over his MLB career. They’ve mostly been minor issues — only a 2023 lower back strain cost him more than a month at any one time — but the ’21 season remains the only time he has gotten to 120 games or 500 plate appearances.
O’Neill doesn’t turn 30 until June. He should at least command two years and has a shot at a three-year pact similar to last winter’s Lourdes Gurriel Jr. contract. The lack of a qualifying offer can only help. The Tigers are looking for right-handed bats, while teams like the Phillies, Reds, Braves, Pirates, Blue Jays, Angels and Royals could look for corner outfield help.
Signed with Orioles for three years, $49.5MM.
20. Gleyber Torres: Two years, $36MM
Tim: Royals / Anthony: Mariners / Darragh: Mariners / Steve: Royals
Torres has been a high-profile name for years. He was a top prospect in the Cubs’ system when the Yankees landed him as part of the return for Aroldis Chapman. Torres debuted as a 21-year-old in 2018 and turned in an All-Star season. He followed up with a 38-homer showing in the juiced ball campaign in 2019. Torres looked like one of the most impactful middle infielders in the game.
He hasn’t maintained that level, though he remains a good hitter. Torres topped 20 homers in both 2022-23. The Yankees had long since moved him off shortstop, but he’s one of the sport’s better offensive second basemen. Had he turned in another 25-homer showing in his walk year, he’d likely have been looking at a four- or five-year contract.
That might have been weighing on him, as he began the season in a major slump. Torres hit .220/.295/.254 through the end of April. That terrible start continued to wear down his overall numbers even as he found his stride in May. He posted slightly above-average numbers for the next few months before a huge .292/.361/.419 showing in September. The overall line sits right around league average: .257/.330/.378 with 15 home runs across 665 plate appearances. His production from May 1 onward (.267/.339/.409) is about what we’ve come to expect from Torres. He carried that into the postseason, hitting .241/.348/.397 with more walks than strikeouts in 14 postseason games.
Torres has good strike zone awareness with plus contact skills and the potential for 20-homer power. It’s a well-rounded offensive profile, albeit one that is more good than great. The bat is the calling card. There’s value in being able to play a middle infield position, but Torres is a mediocre defender who is limited to second base. He hasn’t played regularly at any other position in three seasons.
The market has devalued players who only play the keystone. Jean Segura, Brandon Drury and Eduardo Escobar have been limited to two-year deals in the $15-20MM range. Torres is younger and better than everyone in that group, but he’s coming off a similar walk year as those players had.
There’s a wide range of outcomes with his free agency. Torres has youth on his side, as he’ll play all of next season at 28. He’s the best pure second baseman available, and he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached. A three-year contract isn’t unreasonable, and there’s an outside chance he could still nab a four-year deal. At the same time, he’s hitting the market coming off a platform year that wasn’t especially impressive in aggregate. Torres could look for one year or a two-year contract that allows him to opt out and try again at age 29. We’re predicting he’ll sacrifice a bit on the overall guarantee to secure that market flexibility. The Mariners, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants, Rockies, Royals, Angels and Blue Jays could look for second base help.
21. Clay Holmes: Three years, $30MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Royals
Holmes had a rocky showing in leverage situations this past season, blowing an unfathomable 13 saves that more than doubled his career total. He unsurprisingly lost a grip on the closer’s job in the Bronx. Even with those struggles, however, Holmes turned in a tidy 3.14 ERA on the season and still picked up 30 saves. The velocity on his power sinker sat at 96.6 mph, nearly as strong as ever, and he logged better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (25.1% and 8.1%, respectively) for a third straight season. Holmes is one of the game’s preeminent ground-ball pitchers, sitting at 65% in 2024 and 68.7% over the past four seasons.
Holmes will turn 32 just prior to Opening Day next year. Age, paired with an uncharacteristically shaky showing in save settings, won’t do his earning potential any favors. There are some parallels with Taylor Rogers, another closer with a nice track record who experienced some out-of-character struggles in his platform year despite maintaining terrific rate stats. Rogers got three years and $33MM from the Giants (the same figure given to Robert Stephenson based on three quarters of a season of dominance last winter). A three-year pact should still be there for Holmes, though it seems unlikely to come from the Yankees after his tumultuous season. Other big-money clubs with needs in the bullpen will be interested, though.
Signed with Mets for three years, $38MM.
22. Carlos Estevez: Three years, $27MM
Tim: Phillies / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Athletics / Steve: Blue Jays
This is the second career free agent trip for Estevez. Two years ago, he was an intriguing upside play as a power arm who had never put it all together with the Rockies. He’s much more established this time around. Estevez developed into an All-Star closer during his two-year deal with the Angels. He picked up 31 saves with a 3.90 ERA while striking out nearly 28% of opponents in 2023.
In some respects, he’s coming off an even better season. This year’s 2.45 earned run average was a career low by more than a full run. He nearly halved his walk rate from an elevated 11% clip to an excellent 5.7% mark. Estevez locked down 26 of 31 save chances in the regular season. He didn’t allow a single earned run between May 21 and a deadline trade to the Phillies. Estevez was one of the top relievers available over the summer, leading the Phils to relinquish a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects to acquire him.
The right-hander didn’t necessarily pitch poorly in Philadelphia, but it wasn’t the most resounding finish. He managed a 2.57 ERA across 21 innings despite striking out just 20.5% of batters faced. His final appearance couldn’t have gone much worse, as he surrendered a grand slam to Francisco Lindor to put the Phils in a hole in their elimination game in the NLDS. Estevez finished the season with a pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate and 12.6% swinging strike percentage — marks more often seen with a solid setup arm than a star closer.
Despite the dip in swinging strikes, Estevez should do well for himself. He has a 3.22 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage and an 8.7% walk rate across 117 1/3 innings since leaving Colorado. He has proven himself up to the task as a closer. He hasn’t lost any zip off a fastball that checks in around 97 MPH on average. Like former teammate Jeff Hoffman, he’s entering his age-32 season. Hoffman’s superior swing-and-miss numbers give him a better chance of getting to four years, but Estevez should be able to find a three-year contract. The Phillies aren’t likely to bring them both back. There’s a decent chance Estevez lands elsewhere.
23. Matthew Boyd: Two years, $25MM
Tim: Guardians / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Athletics
Boyd underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023 and waited until he was largely healthy to sign a modest one-year deal with the Guardians. Injuries have hit Boyd hard in the past few years. He also required flexor tendon surgery back in 2021 and missed considerable time mending from that procedure. He looked healthy and plenty effective in Cleveland, however, starting eight games and pitching to a 2.72 ERA with a very strong 27.7% strikeout rate and sharp 7.8% walk rate in 39 2/3 innings. Boyd tacked on another 11 2/3 innings of one-run ball with a 14-to-6 K/BB ratio in the postseason as well.
Because of that pair of injuries, Boyd hasn’t topped 88 innings in a season since 2019. Despite that fact and a career 4.85 ERA, there’s a good chance that Boyd will draw substantial interest this winter. His strikeout and walk rates have long been far better than his baseline ERA, but a penchant for home runs has consistently inflated his earned run averages in spite of those intriguing underlying skills. He signed a $10MM guarantee in the 2022-23 offseason after just pitching 13 1/3 innings the year prior (while rehabbing that flexor surgery). His 2024 sample is larger than that and looks largely back in line with pre-injury form. A two-year deal could be there this time around, even with the limited workload in recent seasons.
Signed with Cubs for two years, $29MM.
24. Joc Pederson: Two years, $24MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Diamondbacks / Steve: Blue Jays
Pederson is about as specialized a player as you can find. He’s carved out a niche as an absolute tormentor of right-handed pitching, but he rarely takes at-bats against lefties, doesn’t run well (12th percentile sprint speed) and has become a full-time designated hitter as he heads into his age-33 season. That doesn’t sound like a particularly enthusiastic review, but the one thing Pederson does well — he does very well.
In 407 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2024, Pederson delivered a superlative .281/.392/.531 batting line. He ripped 22 of his 23 homers while holding the platoon advantage, walked at a stout 11.8% pace and fanned at a slightly lower-than-average 21.4% clip. The D-backs only trusted him enough to give him 42 plate appearances against southpaws, and he held his own thanks to a handful of walks (.219/.405/.344). That output isn’t sustainable, though, as Pederson also punched out in 43% of his left-on-left plate appearances. Pederson is a .210/.300/.330 hitter in his career against southpaws.
It’s tough for this profile to get a multi-year deal. Just look at his past trips through free agency. That said, Joc was so good against righties this year — and with elite batted-ball metrics, no less — that he’ll at the very least get a raise on last year’s $12.5MM salary, if not the multi-year deal that’s eluded him in four prior trips to free agency. The fact that there aren’t many other left-handed bats of note on the market will only help him. Clubs like the Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates and Reds could get involved.
Signed with Rangers for two years, $37MM.
25. Andrew Heaney: Two years, $24MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Athletics / Darragh: Rangers / Steve: Nationals
During his last two trips through free agency, Heaney was considered something of an upside play. The Dodgers signed him for a year and $8.5MM on day one of the 2021-22 offseason, setting aside his woeful run-prevention numbers and instead honing in on his strikeout and walk rates. They tweaked his pitch mix and the shape of his slider, ramped up the usage of that breaking pitch to new heights, and watched as Heaney punched out a whopping 35.5% of his hitters against a tiny 6.1% walk rate. Shoulder trouble limited Heaney to 72 2/3 innings, but it was a big enough performance for the Rangers to give him two years and an opt-out the following winter.
Much of that perceived upside has faded, as Heaney has instead settled in as a quality fourth starter. He still possesses interesting strikeout and walk rates, but not to the same extent as in his half-season in L.A. He’ll always be susceptible to homers — he posted a 1.73 HR/9 even in that standout Dodgers showing — but he provided stable innings for two seasons in Texas. In 307 1/3 innings as a Ranger, Heaney logged a 4.22 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. We’ve seen plenty of two-year deals for mid-30s veterans of this caliber in recent seasons (e.g. Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb).
Rangers president Chris Young already said he considers Heaney a “priority,” but if a reunion isn’t in the cards, then the Tigers, Orioles, Braves, Royals, Red Sox and Giants could all shop in this aisle. Heaney probably wouldn’t be the Dodgers’ sole target, but a return could make sense if he’s the second of two arms they bring in this winter.
26. Hyeseong Kim: Three years, $24MM
Tim: Mariners / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: White Sox / Steve: Mariners
A former teammate of fellow free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim in South Korea, the younger Kim (no relation) will be posted by the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes this offseason. Still just 25 (26 in January), he’s coming off a strong season in which he slashed .326/.383/.458 with career-best marks in home runs (11) and strikeout rate (10.9%). While he lacks the power of his former Kiwoom Heroes teammate, Hyeseong Kim is regarded as a plus runner and plus defender at second base. He’s played plenty of shortstop in his KBO career, but the 2024 campaign was his third straight year calling second base his primary home on the diamond.
A second base profile isn’t great for any impending free agent. The MLB market simply doesn’t compensate second basemen at a high rate. Kim will benefit from the fact that he’s still just 26 years old, however, and from athleticism that could lead a club to see how he looks at shortstop. He doesn’t have the same upside Ha-Seong Kim brought to the table, but a plus runner with strong defensive tools and high-end bat-to-ball skills coming off a terrific KBO run ahead of his age-26 season is nevertheless intriguing. Predicting contracts for foreign professionals is always hard, as it takes just one team to love the player and blow industry expectations out of the water (as the Giants did with Jung Hoo Lee and Red Sox did with Masataka Yoshida).
There’s a broad range of outcomes possible with Kim, though it’s tough to see him beating the $28MM in guaranteed money Ha-Seong Kim landed in San Diego unless one or two teams simply love the skill set. That contract could be something of a template here. Multi-year deals ranging from three to five years at sub-premium AAVs seem feasible, to varying extents. Contracts for KBO and NPB stars also often contain opt-outs and multi-year club options that can override those opt-outs. Again, they’re tough to predict. Based on Hyeseong Kim’s defensive/contact/speed-driven floor and his age, we’re going with a three-year deal at a reasonable enough price point to make him a potential flier for teams like the Mariners, Pirates, Royals, A’s and Brewers, to say nothing of bigger-payroll clubs with infield needs (Yankees, Padres, Red Sox, Braves).
27. Frankie Montas: Two years, $22MM
Tim: Athletics / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Guardians / Steve: Padres
There are some parallels between Montas and Heaney. From 2018 to 2022, Montas posted a 3.70 ERA over 545 1/3 innings. He struck out 24.1% of batters faced in that time with a 7.3% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate. Some shoulder problems cropped up in that 2022 season but the Yankees still liked him enough to send four prospects to the A’s in order to acquire him and reliever Lou Trivino.
But shoulder surgery wiped out essentially all of his 2023, making him an unknown quantity coming into 2024. The Reds took a shot on him with a one-year, $16MM deal. They didn’t really get the bounceback they were hoping for, as Montas had a 5.01 ERA in his 19 starts for Cincinnati. His 19% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate were all a bit worse than his previous marks and league-wide averages.
However, he ended the season on a positive note after being traded to the Brewers at the deadline. He made 11 starts with Milwaukee and had a 4.55 ERA in that time. That was only marginally better than his starts with the Reds but his strikeout rate shot up to 28.7% after the deal. He was a bit prone to homers in that time, which is why the extra Ks didn’t improve his ERA much, but his 3.73 SIERA is a reason for more optimism. It’s a small sample but his velocity also improved after the deal, perhaps buttressing his results somewhat. His fastball averaged 95.2 mph with the Reds but 96.3 mph with the Brewers, with slight upticks for his other pitches as well.
As mentioned with Heaney, even solid mid-rotation or back-end guys can get two-year deals in this range. If any club feels the strong second half points to some upside, that could help out Montas. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.
Signed with Mets for two years, $34MM.
28. Nick Pivetta: One year, $21.05MM.
Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Red Sox
Pivetta was an up-and-down starter early in his career with the Phillies. Philadelphia moved him to the Red Sox for a pair of middle relievers in 2020. That trade was a win for the Sox even if Pivetta continued to frustrate with his inconsistency around flashes of upper mid-rotation upside.
The biggest selling points: durability and a strong strikeout and walk profile. Pivetta hadn’t had a single injured list stint in his MLB career (aside from virus-related placements) until this past April. A flexor strain in his elbow shelved him for a month early this year. That’s a concerning injury for an impending free agent, but Pivetta returned in early May and held up for the final five months of the season. Pivetta has topped 130 innings in each of his six full seasons in the big leagues.
The quality of those innings has been more variable. Pivetta has plus stuff and misses a lot of bats. He has a career 26% strikeout rate and has fanned an even 30% of opponents over the past two seasons. Unlike a lot of pitchers with that kind of bat-missing ability, Pivetta doesn’t have an issue throwing strikes consistently. While he has the K/BB profile of a #2 starter, the bottom line results have never matched.
Pivetta’s contact management is subpar. He has allowed home runs at an elevated rate in every season of his career. He is always near the top of the league in allowing hard contact. When hitters make contact, they routinely square him up. Pivetta has never had a season with an ERA below 4.00. He has allowed between 4.04 and 4.56 earned runs per nine in each of the last four years.
Surprisingly, the Red Sox chose to issue Pivetta a qualifying offer. Without one, he seemed like a three-year deal candidate. Given how much a QO could drag down Pivetta’s market as a mid-range starter, he might be wise to accept and return to the market after 2025.
Pivetta presents an interesting evaluation for teams. His repertoire — headlined by a 94 MPH fastball and a low-80s slider — grades very well in models. ERA estimators that emphasize a pitcher’s strikeout and walk profile love Pivetta. Yet he has more than 1000 MLB innings with a career 4.76 ERA because of an annual inability to stay off barrels. He’s at least an innings eater who can fit into the back of a rotation for a team with a spacious ballpark, but Pivetta’s untapped potential might be outweighed by the qualifying offer.
29. Nick Martinez: One year, $21.05MM
Tim: Reds / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: Reds / Steve: Reds
The 34-year-old Martinez hits free agency for a fourth consecutive offseason. He has built opt-out clauses into each of his previous three deals. In each case, Martinez pitched well enough to opt out. That happened again this season after his first (and potentially only) year in Cincinnati. Martinez declined a $12MM player option after collecting a $14MM salary.
Every team has pitchers who bounce between the rotation and long relief. Few perform as well in that swing role as Martinez does. He has turned in three straight seasons with an ERA between 3.10 and 3.47. He had no issue moving to Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, working 142 1/3 innings of 3.10 ball. He fanned 20.4% of opponents with a microscopic 3.2% walk percentage. While he’s unlikely to sustain that level of command, Martinez is a good strike thrower with a real knack for staying off barrels. Martinez has ranked among the league’s best in limiting hard contact and opponents’ exit velocity in consecutive seasons.
Successful as he’s been, he hasn’t gotten a full-time rotation opportunity. The Padres only gave Martinez 19 starts between 2022-23. He started 16 of 42 appearances with Cincinnati. That hasn’t been for a lack of trying. Martinez has spoken a few times about preferring a rotation job, but multiple teams have preferred for him to open the season in the bullpen. He has indeed been more effective in relief, though he excelled in either capacity this year. Martinez posted a 1.86 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate over 53 1/3 frames out of the bullpen; he worked to a 3.84 mark while striking out 19.1% of batters faced from the rotation.
Prior to the Reds’ somewhat surprising decision to tag Martinez with a qualifying offer, we’d penciled him in for a three-year, $39MM contract. The two sides could still work out an extension in that range, but if they can’t hammer out a long-term deal, our expectation is that Martinez accepts that $21.05MM offer.
Accepted one-year, $21.05MM qualifying offer from Reds.
30. Danny Jansen: Two years, $20MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Guardians / Darragh: Braves / Steve: Cubs
Jansen is one of the more difficult players to evaluate right now because his overall track record is quite strong but he’s heading into free agency after the worst three-month stretch of his career. From 2021 to 2023, he hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121. His defense was generally considered to be a bit above average. He was limited by injuries to just 228 games in that three-year period but produced 6.1 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
He came into 2024 strong, hitting .287/.371/.535 for a 157 wRC+ through the end of May. It was a nosedive from there, as Jansen produced a dismal line of .158/.274/.243 over the final four months of the year. His defensive metrics were also uncharacteristically poor for the year. Jansen had eight Defensive Runs Saved in his career coming into 2024 but then was tagged with -11 this year. His framing metrics also seemed to take a step back.
Jansen has cost himself millions of dollars with that awful finish, but should still be able to get a solid deal from a club banking on a bounceback. Atlanta gave Travis d’Arnaud a two-year extension worth $16MM late in 2021, despite d’Arnaud being injured for much of that season and finishing with a line of .220/.284/.388. Omar Narvaez, Yan Gomes and Victor Caratini have also received strong two-year deals recently. Jansen is coming into free agency at a lower point than those guys but has shown more recent upside. Several clubs need catching and there’s no clear standout in free agency this winter, which could work in Jansen’s favor.
Signed with Rays for one year, $8.5MM.
31. Jose Quintana: Two years, $20MM
Tim: Athletics / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Reds / Steve: Tigers
The last time Quintana was a free agent, he got a two-year deal from the Mets worth $26MM. It took a while for the club to get much out of that investment, as Quintana missed most of the first half of 2023 with a left rib fracture. He returned in July and eventually finished the year with 13 starts and a 3.57 ERA.
2024 was far more steady, as Quintana took the ball 31 times and logged 170 1/3 innings with a 3.57 ERA. Under the hood, things were a bit less exciting. His 8.8% walk rate was close to league average and his 47.4% ground ball rate a few ticks better than par, but his 18.8% strikeout rate was on the low side. He had the same K rate last year, which was a drop from his 20.2% mark in 2022.
He’s not the most exciting arm, especially now that he’s turning 36 in January, but reliable veteran starters can still get decent money. Kenta Maeda got two years and $24MM going into his age-36 season last winter. Kyle Gibson only got one year and $13MM but had an ERA above 4.00 in three straight seasons.
32. Michael Conforto: Two years, $18MM
Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Pirates / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Royals
Conforto had an okay year but is coming into free agency with some reasons for optimism. He hit 20 home runs this year and slashed .237/.309/.450, production that leads to a 112 wRC+. However, he did so in up-and-down fashion. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 for a 129 wRC+ until he suffered a right hamstring strain in mid May. He came off the IL a couple of weeks later and struggled, hitting .164/.267/.321 over June and July. He got in a groove from there, slashing .265/.329/.529 over August and September for a 137 wRC+.
The last time Conforto was a free agent, the Giants gave him $36MM over two years, but that was largely an upside play. He had a line of .265/.369/.495 and a 133 wRC+ from 2017 to 2020, but then slumped in 2021 and missed all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery. If he bounced back to his peak form, he would have been a bargain. But he was essentially league average in 2023 before his aforementioned seesaw campaign in 2024.
Conforto will turn 32 in March, meaning clubs won’t view him as having as much upside as two years ago. But he’s a passable defender in a corner outfield spot and is clearly still capable of being an above average left-handed batter. Teams like the Royals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Reds, Phillies, Guardians or Nationals could get involved.
Signed with Dodgers for one year, $17MM.
33. Max Scherzer: One year, $16MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Phillies
Amazingly, Scherzer just had the first real injury-plagued season of his career at the age of 39. In every full season from 2009 to 2023, he tossed at least 145 innings. That included a run of at least 170 innings in each full campaign from 2009 to 2021 and 200-plus in each season from 2013 to 2018.
But in 2024, he hit a series of speed bumps. Offseason back surgery put him on the IL to start the season but he was hoping to be back in May. That didn’t come to pass as Scherzer’s rehab was waylaid thanks to an injury that involved thumb soreness and a nerve issue running down his arm. He eventually got off the IL but also battled shoulder fatigue and missed more time. He finished the season with 43 1/3 innings pitched over just nine starts.
Despite all the health concerns, Scherzer was still good when on the mound. He posted a 3.95 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. He won’t be able to get the massive $43.33MM average annual value he got on his last deal, but plenty of late-career veterans have secured solid one-year deals lately. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals a few years ago to serve as a veteran innings eater. He didn’t have health flags like Scherzer but his effectiveness was waning. Scherzer has an elite track record and can still compete at a high level when on the hill.
34. A.J. Minter: Two years, $16MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Cubs / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Phillies
Minter had a strong run as one of the better left-handed relievers in the game. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 187 innings with a 3.13 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He recorded 15 saves and 78 holds for Atlanta in that time. Among lefty relievers with at least 150 innings pitched in that frame, Minter’s ERA was in the top five, behind Josh Hader, Tim Mayza, Wandy Peralta and Andrew Chafin. His strikeout rate was also fifth, behind Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Taylor Rogers and Tanner Scott.
Unfortunately, he’s not going into free agency on a high note. He went on the IL multiple times in 2024 due to left hip inflammation and eventually underwent surgery in the middle of August, spending the final few weeks of the season on the 60-day IL.
That creates some uncertainty going into the offseason but there’s nothing to suggest his injury will linger into next season. At the time of his surgery, it was still up in the air as to whether it was season-ending or not, which perhaps indicates he could be healed up early in the offseason. Perhaps he will wait until he’s fully rehabbed to showcase his health to clubs as spring training approaches. Guys like Chris Martin, Aaron Loup, Hector Neris, Joe Kelly, Emilio Pagan, Matt Strahm and plenty of others have received two-year deals in this range in recent years. Minter’s health gives him a bit of uncertainty but he’s a southpaw with mid-90s velocity and strong results prior to his injury.
35. Paul Goldschmidt: One year, $15MM
Tim: Astros / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Diamondbacks
Goldschmidt has had a great career and won an MVP award just two years ago, but the big question is what’s left in the tank. He hit .245/.302/.414 in 2024, production that was considered to be exactly league average by wRC+. His 7.2% walk rate was easily the lowest of his career. He’s now 37 years old.
The optimist could point to his strong finish. He slashed .230/.291/.373 through the first half but put up a stronger .271/.319/.480 line in the second half, leading to respective wRC+ marks of 87 and 120. However, even in that improved second half, his 6.8% walk rate was well below his career marks and even league average. For the whole year, 53.7% of pitches thrown to him were in the zone, the highest rate of his career. Perhaps pitchers are less afraid him now and more willing to attack. The fact that he seems to have adjusted is a good sign but he still didn’t get near his previous peak form.
Despite the yellow flags, there’s still a lot to like. His first base defense was still considered around league average and he stole 11 bases. He’s well respected in the game for his veteran presence and leadership qualities. His age will limit him to one year but players like Justin Turner, Nelson Cruz, Michael Brantley and J.D. Martinez have been able to get one-year deals in this range even after pushing through their mid-30s. Teams like the Astros, Mariners, Yankees, D-backs, Giants, Mets and Nats could use some help at first base. Pete Alonso and Christian Walker are also available but Alonso figures to have a big asking price that many clubs won’t want to meet and Walker can only be signed by one club.
Signed with Yankees for one year, $12.5MM.
36. Kyle Higashioka: Two years, $15MM
Tim: Padres / Anthony: Rays / Darragh: Marlins / Steve: Rays
The Yankees packaged Higashioka as the fifth piece of the Juan Soto trade return. He was an affordable glove-first veteran catcher whom the Padres planned to use in a backup role. Higashioka simply outplayed Luis Campusano all season and took over as Mike Shildt’s primary catcher by the postseason.
This was a career year for the 2008 seventh-round pick. Higashioka connected on a personal-best 17 home runs across 263 plate appearances. His .220/.263/.476 slash line was slightly better than league average. Higashioka rarely gets on base, but he’s a legitimate threat to take a pitcher deep anytime he comes to the plate. He popped three more homers in seven playoff games.
The Yankees never viewed Higashioka as a viable starting catcher. He hasn’t reached 300 plate appearances in any MLB season. Yet he rates well as a pitch framer and has a strong reputation for his work with a pitching staff. He’s a limited player, but there’ll be teams that view him as a solid role player even if he doesn’t find a role as a clear #1 option. He’s coming off perhaps the best walk year of anyone in a very weak catching class. Higashioka turns 35 in April. He’ll be limited to two years but could land a total guarantee in the $12-15MM range secured by Victor Caratini and Omar Narvaez in recent offseasons. San Diego could look to bring him back, while teams like the Rays, Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Nationals could also fit.
Signed with Rangers for two years, $13.5MM.
37. Walker Buehler: One year, $15MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Guardians /Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Braves
Much of the 2024 season couldn’t have gone much worse for Buehler. The righty has looked like a shell of his former self since returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Buehler made 16 starts in the regular season and was tagged for a 5.38 earned run average across 75 1/3 innings. He allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings while striking out just 18.6% of batters faced. His 8.2% swinging strike rate was more than three points lower than his career average.
Buehler’s fortunes changed in October. After the Padres rocked him for six runs over five innings in his first start, he tossed consecutive scoreless appearances with 11 strikeouts over nine frames against the Mets and Yankees. As a heavily worked Dodger bullpen threatened to run out of steam in Game 5 of the World Series, Dave Roberts called upon Buehler. He fired a perfect inning with two strikeouts, locking down the title with a strikeout of Alex Verdugo.
That gives Buehler some positive momentum in free agency, but we’re skeptical it’ll dramatically change the market’s perception. Even as his World Series heroics cemented him in Dodger lore, the vast majority of Buehler’s walk year was a struggle. His 95 MPH average fastball velocity is on par with pre-surgery levels, but none of his pitches missed bats at the same rates.
Buehler is perhaps the top reclamation project in this year’s rotation class. It’s a stretch to expect the ace form he showed back in 2021, when he rode a 2.47 ERA to a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Buehler still has arm talent, though, and this was the first time he’s allowed more than 4.02 earned runs per nine (excluding a 9 1/3 inning debut season). It’s not out of the question that’ll lead to enough interest to get a two-year deal with an opt-out. One year feels likelier given the regular season numbers. Buehler will try to follow in the path taken by Severino and Flaherty last winter. If he figures things out, four years could be viable next offseason.
Signed with Red Sox for one year, $21.05MM.
38. Kirby Yates: One year, $14MM
Tim: Yankees / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Phillies
The Rangers took a $4.5MM flier on Yates last offseason. It was one of the best pickups of the offseason. The veteran righty deservedly earned his second All-Star nod amidst a dominant showing at the back of Bruce Bochy’s bullpen. Yates twirled 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball. He locked down 33 saves while blowing just one lead all season. He punched out 35.9% of opponents while generating swinging strikes at a huge 15.2% clip.
Were it not for an all-time season from Emmanuel Clase, Yates probably would’ve been the Reliever of the Year in the American League. Only Clase had a better earned run average among relievers with 50+ innings. Yates ranked seventh in MLB in strikeout rate and landed in the top 25 in whiffs. It was a performance reminiscent of his 2019 season, when he led the majors with 41 saves and posted a 1.19 ERA over 60 2/3 innings for the Padres.
Excellent as Yates was, there are some red flags. Age is the biggest issue. He’ll be 38 in Spring Training. That’s an age at which teams almost never give a reliever a multi-year contract. The only two-year deals for relievers at age 38 over the past decade: a $3.2MM guarantee for Darren O’Day and the Rockies’ ill-advised $19MM Daniel Bard extension. Yates has also undergone two Tommy John surgeries in his career, the second of which came in March 2021 and essentially wiped out his next two seasons.
While there’s not much to nitpick in his performance, it’s worth noting that Yates hasn’t shown pristine command since his most recent surgery. He walked nearly 12% of batters faced with Texas and has handed out free passes at a lofty 13.2% clip over the last two seasons. He also succeeds a bit unconventionally. Yates doesn’t have huge velocity, averaging 93.2 MPH on his four-seam fastball. Opponents have never been able to differentiate the heater from his wipeout split-finger offering. The velocity probably isn’t a huge issue on what’ll likely be a one-year contract. Yates is coming off a better season than Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel were when they signed for $10.5MM and $13MM, respectively, last winter.
39. Michael Soroka: Two years, $14MM
Tim: Astros / Anthony: Brewers / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Dodgers
When Soroka pitched to a 6.39 ERA with as many walks (24) as strikeouts through his first nine starts of the season, projecting him to even land a big league deal would’ve seemed questionable. A multi-year deal would’ve seemed laughable. But when the White Sox dropped Soroka to the bullpen in mid-May, his season quietly took off. It was easy to overlook silver linings on a historically awful team that lost a modern-day-record 121 games, but Soroka’s transformation in the bullpen was legitimately intriguing.
Beginning with a four-inning long relief showing at Yankee Stadium, Soroka punched out seven batters. He went on to fan 15 in 9 1/3 frames over his first three relief outings. From May 18 through season’s end, Soroka pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out a gargantuan 39% of his opponents. That includes a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain, but Soroka returned in late September averaging an improved 94.5 mph on his heater and closed out the season with 7 1/3 shutout innings and a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio. His overall command was an issue, as Soroka walked 13% of opponents even after his move to relief.
Still just 27 years old, Soroka is uncharacteristically young for a free agent. He broke into the majors as a 20-year-old with the 2018 Braves and looked immediately ticketed for stardom, notching a 2.79 ERA over his first 200 1/3 innings. A cavalcade of injuries has derailed Soroka since, including consecutive seasons ruined by a torn right Achilles tendon. Beyond this year’s shoulder strain, he’s had two prior IL stints due to shoulder inflammation.
Health is an obvious concern, but Soroka is a former top prospect who fanned nearly 40% of his opponents following a move to the bullpen and who won’t turn 28 until next August. Some teams might be interested in plugging him back into the rotation. Others could view him as a potential high-end reliever based on the swing-and-miss he’s shown in relief. Whichever role he’s in, Soroka’s pedigree, age and ability to miss bats make him a sneaky candidate for a multi-year deal.
Signed with Nationals for one year, $9MM.
40. Andrew Kittredge: Two years, $14MM
Tim: Athletics / Anthony: Twins / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Rangers
Kittredge doesn’t necessarily stand out in terms of his rate stats, but he has a solid track record and is fresh off a season in which he paced the National League with 37 holds. In 70 2/3 innings with the Cardinals, he worked to a sharp 2.80 ERA. His 23.3% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate were all better than average but something less than elite.
Injuries have limited Kittredge to just 182 innings since Opening Day 2020, but he’s notched a tidy 2.47 ERA in that time and regularly delivered quality rate stats along the way. He’ll turn 35 next spring but is still averaging just under 95 mph on his sinker. This year’s 13.7% swinging-strike rate and huge 39% chase rate also suggest that there could be more in the tank in terms of strikeouts, as we saw in 2021, when Kittredge fanned 27.3% of his opponents with the Rays.
Two-year deals for relievers beginning in their age-35 season aren’t necessarily common, but there’s enough precedent that Kittredge could get there. Adam Ottavino, Chris Martin, Mark Melancon and Ryan Brasier are among the names who’ve done so. Kittredge could join them.
41. Kyle Gibson: One year, $13MM
Tim: Angels / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Nationals / Steve: Blue Jays
Gibson’s mantra may as well be “have innings, will travel.” The only two pitchers with more innings dating back to 2014 are Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. Gibson was a fixture in the rotation for the Twins, who selected him in the first round of the ’09 draft, from 2014-19. He’s since pitched for four different clubs and is now likely to land with a new club yet again after the rebuilding Cardinals began their offseason by declining his 2025 club option.
St. Louis didn’t decline Gibson’s option due to anything performance-related. It was a move solely designed to reduce payroll and open innings for younger arms. Gibson did everything they could’ve asked in 2024, starting 30 games and turning in a solid 4.24 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 44.8% grounder rate. Since breaking in as a full-time starter, Gibson has been a regular source of 29+ starts per year, only falling shy in 2020 (when he started a full slate of 12 games in the shortened schedule) and in 2016, when he started 25 games. If you’re a team looking for league-average innings in bulk and a respected veteran leader in the clubhouse, Gibson’s your guy. He’ll command another one-year deal in the same $10-14MM range he’s resided for several offseasons now.
42. Tommy Kahnle: Two years, $13MM
Tim: Angels / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Nationals / Steve: Rangers
Health has been an issue for Kahnle for much of his career. Effectiveness hasn’t. Since 2019, Kahnle has been limited to just 158 1/3 innings. He’s also logged a tidy 2.90 ERA with a huge 30.9% strikeout rate in that time. It was more of the same in 2024. Kahnle pitched 42 2/3 innings and missed time due to shoulder inflammation. His 94.2 mph average fastball was a career-low. Despite that, Kahnle turned in a 2.11 ERA and fanned nearly 26% of his opponents. His 16.4% swinging-strike rate was tied for 14th among the 402 pitchers who logged at least 40 MLB innings this season.
The Yankees signed Kahnle to a two-year, $11.5MM deal coming off a stretch where he pitched just 13 2/3 innings from 2020-22. He’s older now but also healthier than he was at the time, and he’s missing bats in droves with his at-times almost comedic reliance on his changeup (73% in 2024; 61 consecutive changeups in the postseason). A slightly better two-year deal could be there again this time around, even as he heads into his age-35 season.
43. Ha-Seong Kim: One year, $12MM
Tim: Braves / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: White Sox / Steve: Braves
Were it not for the shoulder injury that required surgery that will delay his start to the 2025 season, Kim would have ranked prominently on this list — likely settling into the top 10. The 29-year-old has proven himself a plus defensive player at three infield spots (shortstop, second base, third base), a plus runner (60-for-74 in steals over the past two seasons, 76th percentile sprint speed) and at least an average hitter at the plate. Kim doesn’t have huge over-the-fence power, topping out with 17 homers and sitting between .132 and .138 with his ISO over the past three seasons. However, he has clear gap power, draws plenty of walks (12.1% since Opening Day 2023) and fanned in a career-low 16.4% of his plate appearances this season.
A healthy Kim would profile as a clear everyday shortstop heading into next year, his age-29 season. It’s certainly possible that if a team feels comfortable with his medical outlook, they’ll largely overlook the rehab process and attempt to sign him long-term anyhow. Kim could also ponder two-year deals with opt-out opportunities, following in the footsteps of fellow Boras clients Michael Conforto and Rhys Hoskins after their own injuries of note. That type of deal would come with significant downside for a signing team, however. Both Conforto and Hoskins were expected to be ready for Opening Day in the first seasons of their two-year deals. Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller recently put forth a rough timeline of “May, June, July” when asked when Kim would be ready for game action.
More than most free agents on this list, Kim has a broad range of contractual outcomes. And, because so much of it depends on how his shoulder progresses in its rehab, it’s impossible to know exactly which path is the likeliest. What’s certain is that on a one-year deal — which could contain incentives based on playing time — could pave the way for a return to the open market next year and a chance at the type of substantial payday he might’ve commanded in absence of his current shoulder injury. The Padres, Braves, Giants and Tigers are among the on-paper landing spots, though Kim’s ability to play multiple positions could make him a fit on the majority of rosters.
44. Shane Bieber: One year, $12MM
Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Orioles / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Orioles
The 2020 AL Cy Young winner, Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April and will likely be out into next summer. In a recent appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, Bieber told host Rob Bradford he’s recently begun throwing weighted balls but added that his doctors have not provided him with a specific timetable for his return to game action.
Even before he had Tommy John surgery, Bieber had been operating at something less than his peak form. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 200 innings during his last full, healthy season (2022) but did so with a fastball averaging 91.5 mph — nowhere close to the 94.3 mph he averaged during his Cy Young campaign. The following season, Bieber averaged 91.6 mph on his heater in 21 starts but missed about one-third of the year due to elbow discomfort.
Bieber will turn 30 next May. Some teams might hope to land him on a two-year deal that pays him more in 2026 with a lesser 2025 salary in what’ll be an injury-shortened season. For Bieber, however, it’s likely more appealing to sign a deal that’ll allow him to get back to market next offseason. A two-year deal would put him back on the market ahead of his age-32 season, and the gap between free agent deals for pitchers starting at age 31 and age 32 is significant. One year versus two years will ultimately come down to personal preference, but Bieber could have a chance at nine figures off a healthy one-year rebound.
Signed with Guardians for two years, $26MM.
45. Justin Verlander: One year, $12MM
Tim: Phillies / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Dodgers
The 2024 season was a nightmare for Verlander, who was delayed early by shoulder troubles and returned to the IL for what wound up being a monthslong stay thanks to a neck strain. Upon returning, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer was hit so hard that the Astros left him off their playoff roster. He finished out the season with a career-worst 5.48 ERA in 17 starts, while his 93.5 mph average heater was his slowest in nearly a decade.
Those struggles notwithstanding, Verlander has enough track record to command a relatively weighty guarantee and name value and aura alone. He’s also only two years removed from his third career Cy Young Award and one season removed from 162 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with the Mets and Astros. Another reunion with the Astros feels unlikely, given GM Dana Brown’s comments foreshadowing some payroll issues. Verlander will prioritize win-now clubs, and he’ll be of interest to teams that can afford to withstand the financial blow if his late-season struggles continue. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets (again), Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Cubs, Orioles and perhaps his old friends in Detroit could all offer an eight-figure guarantee with enough workload-based incentives to push the total closer to $20MM.
46. Tomoyuki Sugano: One year, $12MM
Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Brewers / Steve: Mets
Sugano looked destined to come to MLB in the 2020-21 offseason but wound up receiving a compelling offer to stay in Japan: four years and $40MM with multiple opt-out opportunities with the Yomiuri Giants. He’s now coming to the majors at 35 years old, which won’t help his earning power, but he’ll do so as one of the most successful active pitchers in NPB.
A two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Japan’s Cy Young equivalent — Sugano boasts a sensational 2.43 ERA in a dozen NPB seasons, all coming with the Giants. He’s pitched 1857 innings and gone 136-74 while punching out 21.4% of his opponents against a 4,6% walk rate. His strikeout numbers have dipped to the 17-18% range over the past three seasons, though his command has been sensational: 3.8% walk rate in that time, including just a 2.6% mark in 2024. Sugano pitched 156 2/3 innings this past season and turned in a 1.67 ERA.
While the run-prevention numbers are great, Sugano is 35 years old and missed substantial time with an elbow issue in 2023. Per Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times, Sugano’s 2023 season was delayed until June 11. He came back to make 16 strong starts and followed that with 24 more in 2024, but a recent elbow issue for a pitcher in his mid-30s is something clubs will consider.
Sugano’s age seems like it’ll limit him to shorter-term arrangements. It’s possible he’ll get a two-year contract, but anything longer would register as a surprise. Dating back to 2010, only three pitchers — Scherzer, Rich Hill and Jacob deGrom — have received pacts of at least three years beginning in their age-35 season or later. A one-year deal could allow Sugano the chance to show his ability to handle big league opposition, perhaps setting the stage for a weightier two-year deal next offseason if he can indeed make the transition to North American ball.
An eight-figure guarantee on a one-year deal is something the majority of clubs could stomach. Sugano’s former agent said at the time that six MLB clubs made offers. The Padres and Jays were reportedly among them. Other teams reported to have interest that offseason included the Red Sox, Mets, Giants and Rangers.
Signed with Orioles for one year, $13MM.
47. David Robertson: One year, $11MM
Tim: Pirates: Anthony: Nationals / Darragh: Cardinals / Steve: Dodgers
Robertson will turn 40 in April, but you’d never know it by watching him pitch. It’s hard to believe he was practically out of baseball from 2019-21, because he’s come roaring all the way back as a premium high-leverage arm. In 72 innings with the Rangers this past season, Robertson turned in a flat 3.00 ERA while punching out 33.4% of his opponents against a 9.1% walk rate. His signature cutter sat 93.3 mph, incredibly tied (with 2023!) for the highest mark of his 16-year big league career.
This was arguably Robertson’s best overall showing since 2017. His age is going to prevent him from landing a multi-year deal, but as long as he keeps pitching like this, Robertson will be able to command one-year deals with eight-figure guarantees on them until he decides he wants to hang ’em up. A lot of clubs can’t afford to take that kind of financial risk on a 40-year-old reliever, so a big-payroll club like the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, etc. seems likeliest to sign the veteran late-inning star.
48. Shinnosuke Ogasawara: Two years, $12MM
Tim: Brewers / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: Guardians / Steve: Athletics
Like many NPB and KBO stars who come to the majors, Ogasawara is something of a wild card. He’s not the type of power arm typically coveted by MLB clubs, but he’s quite young, as he’ll pitch next season at 27 years of age. That alone will pique the interest of some clubs. He also has a generally strong track record in NPB, with a career 3.67 ERA that includes a stronger 3.27 mark over the past four seasons and a 3.12 mark in 2024.
Ogasawara is a somewhat confounding player to evaluate, at least based on his platform year. That 3.12 ERA is obviously quite sharp, and he coupled it with elite command, walking just 3.7% of his opponents. However, a strikeout rate that sat a respectable, if unspectacular 22% from 2022-23 plummeted to just 13.7% in 2024. Ogasawara also radically improved his walk rate, which sat at 6.4% in 2022-23. Was this season’s dearth of missed bats due to a conscious focus on improved command and pounding the strike zone early? That’ll be for big league scouts to determine.
From a pure stuff standpoint, Ogasawara doesn’t exactly jump out, but he has enough velocity to succeed in the big leagues. He sits 91-93 mph with his heater and pairs it with a low-70s curveball and low-80s changeup. His 5’11”, 183-pound frame isn’t imposing but is actually slightly larger than countryman Shota Imanaga (5’10”, 175 pounds), who clearly didn’t have any issue carrying his NPB success over to MLB. Imanaga, like Ogasawara, doesn’t have plus velocity, averaging 91.7 mph on his heater with the Cubs this season. However, he had a much better track record in Japan. Imanaga had a career 3.18 ERA in NPB, including three straight sub-3.00 seasons with plus command and much stronger strikeout rates than Ogasawara has shown.
Based on their track records, Ogasawara should come in south of Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee by a fair margin. It only takes one team to come in with a surprising offer, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to learn that a club think Ogasawara’s youth and track record is something that can be molded into a fourth starter against MLB lineups. That said, there’s no real track record for someone coming off a 13-14% strikeout rate getting paid decent money by MLB clubs. Again, these are the hardest contracts to predict every offseason. A two- or three-year deal with a modest AAV feels perfectly plausible, but some clubs may be offput entirely by this year’s drop in punchouts and shy away entirely. Teams like the A’s, White Sox, Angels, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Padres and Cardinals might feel this is a chance to land an Erick Fedde-esque bargain, though.
49. Harrison Bader: One year, $8MM
Tim: Reds / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Athletics / Steve: Marlins
Bader is the top center fielder available in a very weak class at the position. The defensive stalwart signed a $10MM deal with the Mets last offseason and is likely in line for a similar contract this time around. Bader posted a middling .236/.284/.373 slash through 437 plate appearances. His bat cratered after the All-Star Break, leading the Mets to curtail his playing time going into the postseason.
Despite the poor finish, Bader should benefit from market scarcity. He’s a viable low-end regular at a position where essentially no others are available. Bader is a plus runner and a stellar defensive player. The glove makes him a viable bottom-of-the-order option against right-handed pitching. Bader has a bit more juice when he carries the platoon advantage, touting a career .249/.315/.461 batting line versus southpaws. He’s likely looking at a one-year deal, though there’s an outside chance he snags a second year. The Pirates, Phillies, Astros, Angels and Giants are possible fits.
50. Spencer Turnbull: One year, $7MM
Tim: Padres / Anthony: Rockies / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Twins
There are a handful of veterans from the Honorable Mention section to follow who have a decent chance to out-earn Turnbull, but the 50th spot on our list tends to be something of a wild card ranking every year. (In that sense, it could well have gone to Ogasawara as well.) Turnbull is regularly effective when healthy enough to take the mound. He’s pitched 356 2/3 career innings and logged a 4.26 ERA. That’s an unremarkable number but is also skewed by an ugly rookie showing (6.06 ERA) and a 7.26 ERA in 2023 when he was returning from Tommy John surgery.
In two of his past three seasons, Turnbull has an ERA south of 3.00 in a sample of 50 or more innings. He’s sporting an overall 3.79 ERA in that time and has posted a 22.2% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. Early in the season, he looked like one of the best bargain additions of the year for the Phillies, who signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal last winter. In 54 1/3 frames, Turnbull recorded a career-best 2.65 earned run average with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He’s 92-93 mph with his four-seamer and sinker, regularly generating grounders at a plus clip.
Turnbull missed the final three months of the season due to a lat strain. He’s also been shelved by the aforementioned Tommy John procedure, a neck injury and forearm, back and shoulder strains in his career. Durability is not his strong suit, to put it mildly. He’s probably looking at a one-year deal with a fair bit of incentives, though something along the lines of Trevor Williams’ two-year, $13MM deal with the Nationals wouldn’t necessarily be a shock. On a per-inning basis, Turnbull could be one of the better rotation buys of the winter if a team gets lucky and he holds up for 100-plus innings for what would only be the second time in his career.
Honorable Mentions:
- Blake Treinen – signed with Dodgers for two years, $22MM
- Kenley Jansen
- Paul Sewald
- J.D. Martinez
- Charlie Morton
- Clayton Kershaw
- Jose Leclerc
- Carson Kelly – signed with Cubs for two years, $11.5MM
- Justin Turner
- Max Kepler – signed with Phillies for one year, $10MM
- Lance Lynn
- Alex Cobb – signed with Tigers for one year, $15MM
- Aroldis Chapman – signed with Red Sox for one year, $10.75MM
- Chris Martin
- Travis d’Arnaud – signed with Angels for two years, $12MM
- Jakob Junis
- Randal Grichuk
- Trevor Williams
Notable deals for unlisted/non-tendered players:
- Patrick Sandoval – signed with Red Sox for two years, $18.25MM
- Yimi Garcia – signed with Blue Jays for two years, $15MM
- Carlos Santana – signed with Guardians for one year, $12MM
- Gary Sanchez – signed with Orioles for one year, $8.5MM
- Jordan Romano – signed with Phillies for one year, $7.75MM
- Andrew McCutchen – signed with Pirates for one year, $5MM
This list was originally published on 11-4-24.
A portion of Steve’s team picks (Nos. 10-15) were initially listed incorrectly due to a formatting issue on our master spreadsheet. They were updated correctly at 8:55pm on the night of publishing and are now accurate. We apologize for the error. Unless they prove to be correct. In that case, I totally called it.
This is my favorite article every off-season! An
100% agree! Mlbtr is the best! I understand that the staff gets paid for their work but I’d be hard pressed to find a group of people who enjoy and take as much pride in their work as the peeps at MLBTR (and pro football rumors )
Rhino – My favorite article too, but I can’t give you a thumb until I know what the “an” represents?
Great article. Appreciate the insight/predictions from MLBTR.
as a Rays fan I don’t even know why I bother to read this list every year lol. Always a great read though.
Bc it’s a good read !
Preppy – No matter where they end up, if they can’t eventually get back in The Trop their ability to land free agents will be quite challenging.
3/60 on Kikuchi is high imo. Nice to see everyone agreed on Adames landing spot
Yeah, Adames in the order with Judge and Correa… oh, wait!
I’ve heard the Dodgers are really interested in Adames
Yeah, the connection with Friedman and the Dodgers seems obvious, yet all 4 of them predicted the Giants, which I thought was interesting.
Speaking for myself, I don’t find a six-year deal for Adames to be Friedman’s style.
We don’t really know Posey’s approach yet, but I think we’re all assuming something a bit more old school. There were not a lot of great places to put Adames – signing him would be breaking character for Friedman or AA, not that it’s crazy.
Agreed for AA, but he’d be getting someone almost as good defensively as Swanson and the kind of offensive consistency they’d hoped they were getting. I don’t think AA wants to winning a bidding war, but they need a SS and this could be there guy, while LAD has Edman. Kim is nice consolation, says Boras.
I think the Giants would be better suited getting a 2nd baseman and sticking with Tyler Fitzgerald for now.
Fitz is adequate defensively; initially SFG used him as a super utility guy and he settled into SS later in the season. The bat plays and with gold glover Chapman at 3B the team can handle Fitz at SS for at least next season.
Yes, SFG could go after Adames and plug Fitz in at 2nd but it would cost the team 2 draft picks for a player who strikes out a ton. I don’t think anyone outside of Soto will make the Giants give up draft picks when they don’t look quite ready to contend in 2025. I think they go after top flight/non QO players, again with Soto being the exception.
I meant to have this in my first reply:
Zack Minasian was with the Brewers for a long time until he joined the Giants 6 years ago and now he’s the GM. Since the Brewers are not resigning Adames I think Zack will get inside info as to the type of player Adames is, his intangibles.
Posey has said makeup is very important and if there’s any hint Adames isn’t a “team” guy I don’t think there’s anyway he signs with SFG; if it turns out he’s a clubhouse leader and everyone just loves him then forget everything I said.
I don’t disagree, I think it’s possible the Braves make a run at Adames.
Giants writers are putting out pretty strong vibes that the team would prefer Fitzgerald at 2B. Adames comes with a very strong clubhouse rep.
Totally possible the Giants sign HSK or just don’t want Adames, true. And certainly possible that they don’t want to surrender draft picks for a player like him.
@Dave Do you really think anybteam in today’s MLB does not already have that information? The players on MLB rosters have been being scouted for in most cases years.
If it’s true that Friedman has tried to trade for him for at least 2 years, I think the chance to get him for “free” (no prospects parted with), with it only costing money, could appeal to Friedman. In addition, Muncy is only signed through ’25, although there’s a relatively cheap club option for ’26.. If the Dodgers signed Adames, they could have visions of him moving to third base in 2026 or 2027.
Feels like if not for the injury Kim would more likely be the Giants target but the injury might give them pause given their history with signing injured players isn’t great.
Soto surprises and goes to Philly for 655/13, reuniting with Long and bringing another parade down Broad Street.
God forbid.
As a Braves fan it’s funny that the payroll is going up but that you all think that Atlanta will be in the running for no one good. I can see a lot of bias here. Cohen said payroll is going down but how many of the top names are for the Mets. The pay these players want they are going to price themselves right out of baseball. You play a game but in 5 years we will be talking close to a billion dollar player. Greed will ruin baseball.
This wasn’t supposed to be a reply to either of you.
Who do you expect the Braves to be in the running for?
Soroka. Mark it down
When did Cohen say that payroll would go down in 2025? As it stands, the Mets have $155MM committed as far as the CBT, leaving them over $200MM below 2024, so even if it goes down some, that’s why the Mets are in on the top names I guess.
Don’t ever count out philis on a big named free agent ! They are kings
If they get Soto , they will be in the WS
Anthony, think I would barf if the Phillies let Hoffman walk a d replaced him with Holmes.
d’Arnaud seems destined for the Cubs. They need power and an upgrade at catcher, he fits both. They are in a weird situation where they don’t have many unoccupied spots, but also don’t have any much for really good players either. d’Arnaud would at least eliminate a glaring hole in their lineup.
D’Arnaud will more than likely resign with Atlanta on a team friendly deal. He has stated he is interested in remaining with Atlanta in a year or two as a coach.
After they just refused to pay him a meager $8 million? I doubt it.
Harrison Bader back with the Reds? Barf. The man has hit: .239-..284-.360 combined the past 3 seasons. He’s not the bat they should be looking for.
Yeah, I regret that pick. Today was a crazy day…we added Bader late and I should’ve thought a bit more on it.
Bader and O’Neill both heading back to Missouri. In blue this time.
Definitely a prime spot to put an OF or two.
Hey Don. Wondering if you thought it was crazy that Anthony had Matthew Boyd to Cardinals at 2/25. Wouldn’t they have rather just kept the dependable Gibson for 1 year by exercising his option? Much better injury history, known great teammate who loves the area. Boyd is exactly the risk the Cardinals should NOT take, especially if it means multiple years like Matz
Ya, I saw that. I agree with you. I don’t see any upside in rolling the dice on an unknown commodity like Boyd. Gibson would have been a safer play. But ultimately, I’m content with them going with the young pitchers. If they get a chance to buy low on a guy the way Cleveland did with Boyd, I’m fine with that too.
It is great to see the Nationals considered as players in the free agent market again. I hope that comes to pass, because it feels like time to start prying the window of contention open again.
Scherzer was the first deferred contract I ever saw and it came from bats. Might as well match ohtani contract and bring back Soto !
Yes but they need to sign Walker, not Alonzo!
Nats window may be open now that their top prospects are all reaching the bigs… they may be smart about it knowing that they have Wood and Crews for cheap for 3-4 years- so sign deals in that 3-4 year range so they come off the books as their future stars get expensve (lets be fair- the last year of arb for stars is not far from market- but you get them with no risk on a 1 year deal)
James123;
MacKenzie Gore looks like a very good young pitcher. The rest of the starters are so-so. Don’t seem to have a closer. Finished 23’rd in MLB in team ERA.
This is an old story with Rizzo’s Nationals: They just don’t seem to get pitching.
I can see the Nationals going after Alonso as some of the writers noted. But I don’t know that Alonso would go to a team long-term that doesn’t have pitching. On paper it seems best the Nats to go after 3-4 mid-range FA pitchers – one or 2 starters and he rest bullpenners. But the current owner isn’t the old owner, and the Nats have deferred payments for years to players no longer on their roster.
How exactly do they contend in a division with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets?
While I can see the Tigers spending some money, I don’t think they will touch a player with a Q.O. unless its Bregman, and I can see Boras being an obstacle as well.
I think he’s a bad fit there. Tigers need more power imo
I see Bregman the exact same way I saw Bellinger last year.
Agreed. He blocks Jung and will likely be Javy 2.0.
@Stat He will not likely be Baez 2.0. They are polar opposites. Baez is a free swinger who rarely walks and once led MLB in strikeouts. Whereas Bregman has never struck out 100 times in a season and once led MLB in walks.
You’re absolutely right, and even though I hate Bregman (because I’m a Dodger fan), he’d be a fantastic fit for the Tigers. And unlike Cody Bellinger, Bregman has never been the worst hitter in baseball for most of two consecutive seasons.
Totally agree that they won’t touch a QO. No real reason for them to do that until they get a full season of Jung/Sweeney/Meadows/Dingler to see if they improve/maintain last season’s performance. An FA RF would allow them to play Carpenter at 1B with Tork and all 3 rotate DH as needed. An FA 3B blocks out Jung with Keith settled in at 2B.
JV at $12M/yr w/incentives would be interesting. He’d be a solid veteran mentor with great post season experience and a nice homecoming story. Boyd would be a good chemistry fit and seems to have finally found his groove.
Personally, I like Grichuk as a platoon split with Carpenter. He plays solid RF defense and destroys LHP. Hinch could make great use of him and Ibanez.
That wasn’t supposed to be a reply to you. Maybe fix the site so only touching the reply button will make it reply….
13 years for Soto should take him to his age 45 season
I see what you did there :)
As a Braves fan it’s funny that the payroll is going up but that you all think that Atlanta will be in the running for no one good. I can see a lot of bias here. Cohen said payroll is going down but how many of the top names are for the Mets. The pay these players want they are going to price themselves right out of baseball. You play a game but in 5 years we will be talking close to a billion dollar player. Greed will ruin baseball
This site only has a bias towards the Cubs.
The Braves have made numerous cost cutting moves since the offsesson started. That’s reality that’s not an opinion.
The Mets have a TON of money coming off the books. And Cohen said payroll is going down?
This is weird.
@ Drew Waters Bat….. For openers, the Mets had a payroll in the mid 300 million range this year and now have about $165- $170 mil committed to 2025. So they have room to spend big and still bring payroll down.
That said, please… show us the article or press conference where Cohen said payroll is going down tis year, per se. I’m an avid Mets’ fan who thinks they SHOULD try and bring payroll down, and I’m not aware of it.
Payroll is going down but look at how much payroll is coming off the books, plus if you look at how many Mets each of them individually has, it’s not that crazy.
Braves extend their own players so they don’t have to sign free agents. They would always prefer to not have to sign them. If they see value they will go after it. Nothing wrong with not predicting them imo. Make your own list so we can praise or make fun of you.
LAA do not sign pitchers for more than 3 years, and only did that twice since Arte came to town.
Onesies twosies tops for any pitcher that signs in LAA, and none that actually want to win.
LAA probably need a complete tear down.
There isn’t much to tear down. They do have some exciting young guys in O’Hoppe, Neto, and Soriano. But they can’t get rid of Trout or Rendon’s contracts.
Even if the sign all the players linked to them in this prediction article. They go from 99 losses to only maybe 90 losses. Flaherty, is a good pitcher. But he will go back to being constantly injured, the moment he signs a long term contract. Besides that even if he does stay healthy, he really doesn’t improve the Angels pitching staff that much. I’d rather them trade for Manning from the Tigers.
You mean you don’t think that Kyle Hendricks moves the needle? I kid, I kid.
Cubs said they are relying on internal improvements in 2025. They said this folks. You can want and wish all you want why would you ignore what they said?
Why, Blackpink, is it that every time I read here you are obsessed with the Cubs? Of course, the Cubs said that they are relying on internal improvements. They have eight of the top 100 prospect in the game…they have to rely on them and hope one or two make a dent this year.
But, don’t be so shortsighted to take a 20 minute press conference to think that is it in totality.
I am sure that they will make a trade or two and do whatever they can to sign a player or three to help compete at a better level.
I will bet my life and yours that the Cubs do more than just the internal improvements you are fixated on….as a matter of fact, they went outside the organization today…
Yes Cubby I know they have a good system. And even better the top 6 of those guys are all projected to be ready in 2025 so something has to give.
Hey the Cardinals had a 20 minute press conference. Mozeliak said payroll was going to go down surrounded by a lot of other things and this site has repeatedly taken that as gospel. In fact the top 35 trade candidates was loaded with Cardinals.
So let’s play fair. That’s what I want fairness.
I HOPE the Cardinals trade away a lot of their guys. But there is no evidence they are going to actually do that. The Cubs have to do something either trade veterans or prospects. It has nothing to do with money there are simply only so many roster spots available.
@Blackpink
Life’s not fair, princess. Anyone who told you that was selling something!
The Cubs have said they will not add any players from outside the organization? Got a link?
Google Cubs offseason plans there is a press conference from right after the season and I believe it’s Hoyer who says they are in so many words relying on internal improvements.
The contents of that press conference were never shared on this site. Instead about a week later there was an article posted from a Cubs reporter and half of your article was about the CBT as if that was a concern or something relevant.
Check the facts. I have.
Seems like you’re paraphrasing. Paste a link here and I’ll evaluate Hoyer’s comments in full context.
mlb.com/news/cubs-jed-hoyer-discuss-2024-mlb-seaso…
It’s the third bullet point. The comment is in quotations but it’s not an actual quote. I did not listen to the press conference.
It’s this combined with this site taking Mozeliaks comments as to mean the Cardinals are doing a giant sell off is what’s frustrating to me.
As always you have a great site regardless of this or that.
You realize he didn’t say he wouldn’t add from outside the organization right? If anything, they’ve learned from deals like the one with Heyward. You really are stretching with this one.
If you’re talking about this section:
“3. Should the Cubs add more star power?”
And this:
“Asked about potentially seeking more star power to help the offense, Hoyer pointed to players “outperforming projections” as a main goal for ‘25.”
A) That’s in reference to the offense, and I didn’t pick any big bats on the Cubs because their offense is fairly locked in and
B) There’s nothing in there that suggests to me that the Cubs would not make a notable outside addition, particularly to the rotation. Their beat writers expect such an addition.
As for the Cardinals, I guess you could define “giant sell-off,” but I do think all of their expensive players are available and more than one of them will be traded.
@Blackink/Joel Do you not realize the teams are on two separate trajectories? Would you prefer people to fabricate a rosey outlook for the Cards that is a mere fantasy for 2025? The Cubs on the other hand are a few tweaks from contending.
At the end of the day Tim it’s you and your writers reputation that’s on the line here.
The Cardinals never said they are going to rebuild but in this article in the Kyle Gibson comments it says they are. And that’s been said over and over and over on this site for the last month. I will repeat Mozeliak never said rebuild.
That best writers article was nonsense. And the writer who shared that article spent half of their article writing about the CBT and the effects of going over it. That was odd.
We will see what happens. If you listened to the Cardinals press conference Mozeliak said payroll would go down he definitely said that. But older DeWitt repeatedly reminded reporters that the team has a lot of talent. And there is no reason he would do that if they intended to trade it away.
Just play fair. Good gosh it took the Cubs 50 or 60 million more than the Cardinals to finish with the same record in 2024. You really think pouring more money on it while overexaggerating a Cardinals sell off is the way to go here?
@Blackink/Joel enough with the “play fair” the Cubs have more young MLB level talent and a roster more likely to contend. Not sure why any fan feels the need to be coddled and gloss over the fact that barring a bunch of random players stepping up they re likely looking at a season of retooling and 3rd place in 2025.
They are known to be looking for starting and BP pitching. Not a lot of room to change up the lineup. Pitching is about the only place the team can upgrade. Jed knows sitting on his hands again won’t cut it as he needs to make the playoffs to keep his job. His best upgrade last year was also on the starting pitching side (SI). Not a stretch to think the Cubs will be in on the starting pitching market that has several options across the money/term market.
I think the Cubs will sign a closer and a catcher. No Max Fried or someone like that I think thats extremely optimistic.
The Cubs probably need to make some trades. There isn’t room for all the prospects they have coming. They could trade for Crochet that makes far more sense than a big starting pitcher signing.
I agree. I think the team needs an AJ Preller style shakeup via wild trades, but don’t know if Hoyer has the stones for that.
Agree Cubs will be in SP market. Little surprised to see Fried connected to Cubs though. They already have two lefties (Steele/Shota) at top of rotation plus Wicks as a #5 option. Feels like a RH starter would make more sense. Walker Buehler on a pillow deal seems more Jed’s speed.
Are we really certain about Sotos age? He could easily be 28!
My girlfriend is not a baseball fan, but she is a well informed Latina, and when I told her Soto’s age while watching the World Series, she said: “no he’s not, he’s 33 years old…”
Blackpink, instead of your normal retort, since you have checked the facts can you please just simply answer Tim’s request for the link that the Cubs will not add anyone from outside the organization?? He has a very, very simple ask of you.
Always enjoy this piece. Great work to all involved.
I’m going to go against my negative Nancy fellow Twins fans and say they take a run at Walker Buehler or Mathew Boyd and Ha-Seong Kim on 2-year deals with opt outs… They’ve worked with Borras in the past plus it’s easier to sell a team that is completive.
Would a Kim deal go along with moving another infielder? Swallowing hard and asking Correa to waive his no-trade, or making the high risk/reward move of trading Lewis or Lee?
I do agree that some kind of pitching upside play on the open market, like Buehler or Boyd, feels possible – depending on how one wants to read the tea leaves about payroll “not going down” and where on the roster they have room to make moves after this crappy season.
WrongM;
LOL
Kim won’t be able to play at least a part of the year, and maybe large part.
If they get Correa to waive his no-trade they can play Lewis at SS…..so what will they need Kim for? Going a step further, doubt any team in MLB will take Correa’s contract on unless the Twins pay a part of it – and they’re up for sale because they’re already short money with their TV contract issues.
$18 million a year for Gleyber Torres sounds like a horrible idea.
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox are going to spend enough money to get Corbin Burnes needs a reality check
As a Sox fan, unfortunately I have to agree with this. The Sox have given no indication that “this is they year!” they actually have a payroll that reflects the ridiculous amounts of revenue they generate. It’s a shame too as they have some nice young pieces and with a solid rotation could actually make some noise. Oh well, hoping for 87 wins and WC spot…..
I think they are more likely to sign Fried but I wouldn’t be surprised if they signed one or the other. The only reason they wouldn’t is if they pick up an ace by trade. And it’s possible they do both.
Wrong Corbin. Patrick Corbin
Corbin Burnes playing in Boston?
LOL
With his makeup and the way the Boston media and fans respond to any player that has a bad stretch, it’ll be nothing but drama.
The guy is best off in SoCal. Any one of the 3 franchises. Where he can hear: “Have a nice day” no matter how badly he’s pitching.
I thought that was a comical prediction as well. The Sox have outright avoided all top talent since trading Mookie away. In what world do they throw out the highest price for one of the best starters this year?
Reds need to offer home town hero walker buehler a long term deal. 4/75 and they’ll get a ton of value out of that contract !
Good lord, no.
Lots of pressure on Boston this offseason ! Idk if they come through !?
I love these prediction articles not many are free like this
(I’m looking at you ESPN+!)
Is there any way you can ‘pin’ this article to the top of the page? This is always the best article of the offseason
Signing Boyd for that much is laughable
From the predictions from the esteemed group, it seems like the Giants will be replacing half of their team!!! Not like they can’t use the help, but I don’t see it.
dodgers32, What? Maybe you should read article again. The Giants are picked by at least one of the writers for 8 of the FAs.
And it’s funny that you see the Giants predicted to replace half their team when, coincidentally, the Dodgers are also predicted by at least one writer for 8 of the FAs.
Neither team is going to sign half that number, let alone all 8.
Why are some Dodger fans so obsessed by the Giants that they ignore the facts and in order to say something negative about them?
Well, objectively, the Giants need a new 1B, SS, DH, maybe one OF if you believe in Ramos and Lee, at least one SP, and a couple relievers.
The Giants have a few holes, sure, but so do a lot of other teams. So, if we’re striving for objectivity, why single out the Giants? Every team is looking for upgrades. SS is the only really big need, and every team needs pitching.
@Jean M
The Giants are the fourth-best team in a powerhouse division, and can’t find an impact free agent to take their rich-club millions from their garbage-human owner, and have now appointed a franchise icon with ZERO applicable experience to somehow remake everything…all while the three teams ahead of them in the West put more (and more) ground between them and the sad-sack team By The Bay.
At least SF should be better than the Rockies for the foreseeable future.
Obsessed? Nah.
Almost pitied? Almost….
CommentsSectionCommenter,
Thanks for your reply, but it has nothing to do with what I posted. Not that I’m predicting huge success for the Giants, in fact, I’m not. But the point was, they’re just one of plenty of teams that need help.
The original post I responded to derided the Giants as being predicted to replace half the team. This from a Dodger fan. I simply pointed out that both Giants and Dodgers were predicted to sign 8 of the FAs.
My intent was to say this site would be better with some fact-based objectivity, and not looking for unfounded, and biased ways, to dump on other teams
Bregman I don’t think is going to get that much !
I think Soto’s deal will be just as bad as the last guy who got a huge deal because he was just 26, Jason Heyward. Before I get killed for the comp, I do believe Soto is better than Heyward. But Soto is going to make a LOT more and I don’t believe he will live up to the deal…just like Heyward. They are also both better players on the stat sheet than actually on the field. Heyward’s defense and Soto’s walks prop up their WAR a lot higher than actually show up on the field. Walks are useful, but if I am paying someone $600 million, I want HIM to do the damage, not walk and hope the next guy does something.
He hit 41 home runs, how is that not doing the damage?
Yeah, but unless he re-signs with the Yankees he won’t be hitting in a Little League park for a new team. The homers will likely go down
Juan Soto slugged .580 on the road this year
hiflew;
The kids don’t know……
HR’s 5 rows back in the Yankee Stadium RF porch are routine fly balls to RF in most MLB parks.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/juan-soto-665…
Most of Soto’s RF shots were a few more than 5 rows back….
I’m not saying he is not a good player., but people should expect his 28-34 homers from every year he wasn’t a Yankee instead of the 41 he hit in 2024.
And hit one more HR on the road.
So he had 550 PA without a HR. And half his games were in a park with a little league RF distance.
He spent 1/12th of his career hitting at Yankee Stadium. I hope I didn’t ruin your narrative.
No. Gibberish that makes no sense has no effect on my narrative. Where he played in 2019 or 2021 has no effect on how many homers he hit in 2024.
Soto 2024 HR:
Yankee Stadium – 20
Not in Yankee Stadium – 21
I don’t remember Hayward ever getting compared to Ted Williams. Also, Soto’s lowest full season OPS, 2022’s .853, is better than Hayward’s highest full season OPS, .849. No comparison.
I love it when people think they are arguing against me when they really have no idea what I was actually saying. You just saw a name and didn’t read what I said at all.
OPS comparison is not valid at all to my point. I know Soto’s OPS is higher because that stat is highly dependent on walks which I said was his best skill. It does not include defense which I stated was Heyward’s best skill, It’s like comparing apples and pranges, but the only stat you use is orangeness of peel. It’s not a fair comparison.
3 guarantees. The Padres will not sign either Profar or Higashioka for anywhere close to the dollar figures this article seems to think they will get. Kim will not be signed to a 1 year deal. Regardless of where he lands, that team will want another year or two because with the type of injury he suffered to his throwing arm he will miss at least the 1st half of 2025 and he won’t be up to speed until 2026.
Why would Kim want to sign a two or three-year deal with no opt-outs? He was probably an 80-100 mil guy before this injury.
As we said in the article, we could easily see two with an opt-out.
We talked about Kim and his injury a LOT. My stance is that you’re getting him only for the second half, with questions as to how he bounces back. I don’t know why you’d give him, say, 2/30 with an opt-out knowing that he only opts in if things get really ugly. That’d mean paying $15 mil for three months of him.
You seem to be implying a straight two or three-year deal. I’d be really surprised if Kim hired Scott Boras to do that.
That seems like the wrong question Tim.
Why would any team want to sign Kim to a $12 million deal unless they were getting more than 2-3 months of a player that because of the nature of the injury to his throwing arm is almost guaranteed to not be as good in those 2-3 months in 2025 as they were in 2024?
Its not like even before the surgery that Kim was a $30 million AAV type of player. He was looking at a deal similar to or slightly more than Cronenworth’s. 7 years and $84 million are numbers that have been thrown around quite a bit since Kim struggled so much in the 1st half of 2024. After the injury, that much is questionable.
Teams are going to want to be able to recoup some of the investment they made in year one of the deal when lesser version of Kim only plays for a couple of months..
Otherwise teams will wait until he has shown he is healthy. Since we know from comments by Preller that he will not be able to even start throwing until after the season starts, that means no team will know if he is healthy and able to throw with velocity and accuracy necessary to play SS or 3B until well after that.
Maybe teams wait until he is well into his rehab and they know he can throw before they sign him. They are still going to want more than a few months for their money.
So if he is signed during the offseason either they sign him to 2-3 year deal so they CAN recoup some of their lost investment in year one or they sign him long term up front with a lower AAV than he would have received prior to the injury. Possibly they sign him long term with an opt out after 2 years. That has seemed like the most likely outcome since he had to have surgery.
There is practically no chance he is even offered a one year deal knowing that the type of injury he suffered and the surgery will keep him out until June at the very earliest and that he may never throw with the same velocity and accuracy.
If you’re saying a team would like to pay Kim less than $12MM for the second half of 2025, I think that’s possible but he might find a few who think he’s worth that.
If you’re saying teams will wait to sign Kim until he’s further along in his rehab, we agree.
If you’re saying Kim will want one year and teams will only offer two or three sans opt-outs, I disagree.
If you think he’ll get two with an opt-out – sure, we debated that possibility.
If you think his injury will be treated as minor and he’ll get a straight up four or five-year deal – we don’t see that, but we’re not doctors, and I know some forecasters do think that.
“There is practically no chance he is even offered a one year deal”
Strongly disagree on that one
If you think his injury will be treated as minor and he’ll get a straight up four or five-year deal
==========================
That was my point for both Kim and Bieber. It depends on the appetite for both the player and the team, but I see no reason why a player couldn’t take a 4-5 deal now rather than gamble and wait. And no reason why a team couldn’t have some experts examine their medical records and take an educated guess on what they will look like when they return.
I’m not sure the risk profile is any better or worse with a 4-5 contract than it is with a 2-year contract with player options.
That’s cheap for Higgy, especially as a 2 year bridge until Salas comes up. And Profar probably get 40 or so.
That is hugely expensive for a backup catcher with an 86 OPS and average of 0.6 WAR over the last 4 seasons. Higgy made $2.18 million in 2024. A 2/$7.5 million deal would be more in line with his performance.
Say goodbye to Profar if he asks for anything close to that. Profar has been a 1.3 WAR, 105 OPS+ player the last 4 seasons. $8-10 million AAV is market value for that level of player.
I love what Higgy and Profar did for the Padres in 2024 and they are well liked fans and teammates, but emotions are not a method for making sound decisions. You can be sure that Preller will not do so. He has already allowed catchers like Sanchez that had better seasons and Profar himself to walk when they asked for more than Preller felt they were worth.
Preller was smitten with Profar after one good month in 2020 and gave him 3/21 with two opt-outs. Now, Profar just put up the best season of his career.
If you’re saying the Padres let him walk because money is too tight – yes, that seems totally possible. If you’re saying Preller doesn’t think he’s worth 3/45, I disagree, I think Preller loves Profar.
Definitely taking the over on Higgy getting $7.5 mil guaranteed
What did you predict Profar would get after that .278/.343/.428/.771 and 114 OPS+ 2020 season?
If I remember correctly $7 million is exactly what you thought he would get.
Then he got 3/21 with 2 opt outs that broke down as:
$2.5 million signing bonus
2021: $3.5 million in 2021 ($7 million guaranteed)
2022: $6.5 million player option ($1 million buyout)
2023: $7.5 million player option ($1 million buyout)
2024: $10 million mutual option
Hard for you to now say that Preller overpaid when the Padres actually paid a little less than you predicted he would sign for. He opted out after 2022 so the Padres paid Profar $13.5 million for 2 years. $6.75 million per season for a starter in LF.
Preller didn’t “love[s] Profar” well enough to pursue him in FA at all after he opted out. He let him walk without making him an offer according to Profar.
images.app.goo.gl/ArHt8KD6nuUF2cK39
Profar ended up getting $7.75 million from Colorado to be their starter and that worked out poorly.
Somewhere between what Profar was scheduled to make in 2023 and 2024 is where his true value is. I could see another 3 year deal for $8-10 million AAV with opt outs after years 1 and 2. I see no chance the Padres make an offer at $15 million AAV.
If that $15 million number is truly what Profar is requiring, its been nice watching him play for the Padres and I hope he enjoys his time wherever he signs. Best of luck.
Higgy will get his $7.5 million elsewhere. 35 year old career backups typically don’t get close to that. d’Arnaud just got cut instead of paying him $8 million and he was as good or better than Higgy with the bat and glove. Another one of those situations where I have to say it was nice watching him play in a Padre uni and I hope he enjoys wherever he gets signed. Best of luck.
-That is a WILD price prediction for Jack Flaherty. Nothing surprises me about free agent deals in baseball anymore but five years and over $100 million for a guy with only one full season of success out of the last five seems crazy to me.
-If Alonso “only” costs 5/$125 million, I could see him returning to the Mets.
-Man, I really don’t see Burnes signing with the Mets. I just don’t see Stearnes signing him for for 7/$200 million (or whatever). I get that payroll was a concern in Milwaukee, but when did Stearnes ever pay a high price for starting pitching? Not to mention that Burnes K/9, FIP, and EV are all trending in the wrong direction and he’s already 30 years old. He’s a very solid pitcher and he’s durable, but for that kind of contract, he’d better be ace level.
@ rct I also don’t think Burnes is worth the 7 year commitment given his trends. That said, aces are getting $35+ million these days, and this valuation only pays Burnes $28.57….
@geofft – the seven years is what’s getting me. I wouldn’t mind Burnes at even $28.57 million a year but only for 4-5 years. Seven years is far too long. Someone may pay it, though. I just don’t see the Mets doing it.
As a Met fan, I’d like Burnes at 5-170, but I don’t see him doing that… I think he’ll want the years and more guaranteed money, and sacrifice the AAV for it.
I don’t think that’s wild for Flaherty. I was a little lower, personally, but he is good and I didn’t ultimately want to go out on a limb with something sub-100.
Alonso – sure
Burnes/Mets – don’t love the match either. Burnes is a tough guy to place. It’s not a contract any of us would love to do, yet we generally think he can find it.
@Tim – Fair enough on Flaherty, and like I said, nothing surprises me anymore with contracts. I’ll make the case against Flaherty:
2021 – Injuries limited him to 78 effective innings. 122 ERA+, 9.8 K/9, 1.060 WHIP
2022 – bad. Only 36 innings, 4.97 FIP, 1.611 WHIP, K/9 down to 8.3. Injuries certainly affected these numbers
2023 – 4.99 ERA, 87 ERA+, 1.580 WHIP. High BABIP of .352, though. Only 144 innings
2024 – Excellent for Detroit: 3.12 FIP, 11.2 K/9, only 1.6 BB/9, WHIP of 0.956. Came back down to earth a bit in LA, possible fatigue as his 162 innings was his highest total since 2019. Padres rocked him in the playoffs. He shut down the Mets in Game 1 of their series, then got absolutely rocked in Game 5. Repeated that against the Yankees
I just don’t think he’s been as good or as healthy as it takes to warrant anything more than maybe 4/$80MM (and I wouldn’t even do that, personally). There’s a very real possibility of him missing a lot of time or simply not being very good. In the last five seasons, he’s only been great for about a 13 start stretch in Detroit. Aside from that, mixed results. Way too risky for 5/$115MM
I wouldn’t necessarily use the same stats as you but if your point is that Flaherty was basically in the wildnerness for four years, it’s true. And you’re right that some teams are gonna bow out on account of that.
I’d say his health has entered “good enough” status given 60 starts over the last two years. You’re right that he’s going to need a good amount of competition to get five guaranteed years (though he is relatively young) and it’s possible that does not materialize.
That’s interesting, I also don’t see Flaherty getting 5/100+. He never stays healthy a full year, and his performance has always been up and down. After he went to the Dodgers, all his numbers slipped, and the WS and playoffs are a great example of how feast and famine he can be. I just don’t see a team doing that, but we’ll see.
If Alonso signs for $25m/year, and five years, and it’s not with the Mets, fans will be very upset. It’s one thing if they get outbid at some crazy level, but not at such a reasonable price and length (assuming they really want to keep him).
Just thinking:
Snell at $32M seems reasonable. If Cole is looking for $180M/5, then $160M/5 for the younger Snell looks okay.
Flaherty just hasn’t had that many good seasons. He had a 4.42 in his three previous seasons. I’m not a big breakout fan.
I like Walker, but three years is too long at his age. Declining K/W.
Hoffman for $44M/4? No!
I’d bet on Martinez turning down the QO.
I’m not sure why anyone would sign Kim for $12M with an injury. He is no lock to return as a SS. If I were to sign him, I’d want more years, not less.
Bieber is the same as Kim. I wouldn’t pay the guy to rehab, but might sign the guy for 4 years, if I liked his shoulder.
Depending on the lat, I like Turnbull’s versatility. $7M is a steal if he can repeat 2024.
Martin as a H.M.? He had a 50/3 K/W. I’d love to have him back.
Cole?
But why would Kim or Bieber want two or three-year deals? I guess if they have no faith in their own earning power.
Well, as said in my Bieber analysis, four years. And they will sign if it is a fair price. That’s the same reason why anyone extends before the reach free agency.
Bieber will be 30 before he starts pitching again. He’ll be roughly 31 when his next big contract kicks in. He might be looking at 4 years anyway. Why not take it now without the risk?
I’m not sure what you’re saying…that you think a four-year deal is the most likely outcome for Bieber this winter? I don’t agree with that.
I know a lot of people think two years with an opt-out is more likely than one year. We would not find that shocking, but paying, say, $15 mil for three months of post-TJS work plus downside risk of him opting in for 2026 only if there’s a problem, that feels like a bad deal.
So I get back to the idea that Bieber wants to get back to the market in the 2025-26 offseason and signing him for two with an opt-out is unappealing.
I guess that leaves some space where both sides could be open to a straight three or four-year deal, but Bieber would have to be pessimistic about his future to accept that, and we haven’t really gotten into what AAV that’d be.
If I’m the Guards and Bieber says he wants to go four years, I’m thinking “Oh-oh, he doesn’t think his arm is good.”
I agree, I’d view that as a red flag given how unorthodox it’d be.
I’m not saying that four years is the most likely outcome; only that it should be. Just consider the range of possibilities:
One year-This makes perfect sense, but requires a lot of medical insight. If one knew he would be perfectly healthy on 6/30 and pitch to his potential, then take his full-year value and divide by 2.
Two years would be rejected by Bieber since he needs to become a FA sooner rather than later.
A 1+1 should be rejected by the team. If the player under-performs, they lose the current year value, plus the player opts in (Monty/Belli). If they have a good season, they opt out (Snell/Chapman), and Snell didn’t even have a good season.
A 3-year deal is not enough guarantee for the player.
IMO, pending the medicals, Bieber & Kim should be treated like any other FA, but just discounted for missing 3 months. The number should be low enough that the acquiring team is rewarded for the health risk, and high enough that the player foregoes the health premium and health risk. I’d bet that, after last year’s fiasco with the Boras Four, a lot of players will sign the first reasonable offer.
A quick example might be if Bieber comes back strong (75%) (but not vintage) maybe he earns a $125M/5 contract in 2026. And if needs more work on his arm, maybe he is looking at four years of $10M/1.. It’s not that linear, but a estimate of his value would be ($125M * .75) + ($3M * 3 * .25) That argues for $103.75M/4.
JoeBrady;
Disagree with some of the specifics, but overall I think you got it.
Like Ed Koch said, if you agree with me on 6-10, vote for me. If you agree with me on 10-10, you need to have your head examined:)
Firstly, everybody knows MTR is a mouthpiece of Boras; Why the $438M (MLB PA’s valuation of the Ohtani deal) instead of $461M (MLB’s contractually defined rate) or $471M (true market rate, which matters the most to the player)?
Secondly, Soto is probably the most overrated player in baseball right now,
and slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills, exactly the type of player you should avoid.
Age? Chronological age doesn’t matter. You gotta consider his speed, athleticism, etc.. In other words, his biological (true) age.
And he’s nowhere near the levels of players like Ohtani, Trout and Judge in terms of on-field performance, talents, etc..
Ohtani: 26.1 fwar, 28.4 bwar
Trout: 25.0 fwar, 27.3 bwar
Soto: 17.8 fwar, 19.0 bwar
Heck, he’s not even half the player Ohtani is, given Ohtani’s massive off-field value, which you guys don’t even mention (maybe because it doesn’t fit your narrative); Ohtani has brought 12 Japanese sponsors to the Dodgers this year whereas Soto would bring zero Dominican sponsors.
In short, even if we are to look at the chronological age over the biological (true) age, there is absolutely no way that he should get a contract worth more than the present value of Ohtani’s contract.
The $440M Soto and Boras rejected from the Nats is not the floor but the ceiling he shouldn’t reach as, at the time, he was two years younger and the Nats didn’t know for sure the fact that he’s a bat-only player.
Sure, go with 460 or 470 if you like. I’ll take the over by far, which is hardly a controversial stance. There is no “should” here; we are trying to guess what will happen. I think Soto is more likely to get 650 than 450.
Yeah, but anybody with brains knows that the upcoming Soto contract is a disaster waiting to happen for whichever team signs him.
BTW, why not a word about his terrible defense & baserunning, and practically zero off-field value compared with Ohtani?
We should’ve gotten into his defense a bit, yeah. As for exactly how he’ll age, it’s worthy of exploration but beyond the scope of his top 50 blurb. If he just kind of stays like he is now to age 30 or 31, he could return good value.
I remember some analysts saying Soto’s defense was improved this year and it seems it was.
DRS:
2022: -8
2023: -6
2024: 0
He’s obviously not elite, but “terrible” is a stretch. FanGraphs speed score was even up last year.
vtadave
If you watched Soto’s play in right field even a little bit this season, you’d change your mind.
He is a lazy fielder and does not reach those balls that the average fielder can reach without any problems.
I’m not even talking about those balls where the chance of catching is less than 50%.
His participation in the Gold Glove final is a joke.
Winner – W. Abreu (+18 Drs)
Finalist –
J.Soto (0 Drs)
You guys are picking up where you left off last year doubling down on being wrong. This is a 180 degree turn from where you used to be with solid evaluations.
Soto is a 13 year sign for $380 million. He’s a DH.
If you are correct then Mookie Betts contract is way, way above water and he can be dealt for two top twenty prospects on the Top 100 list. Bryce Harper is also well above water and can bring a haul of prospects. You can keep going with Freddie Freeman and even Manny Machado is still plus.
Booo. These guys work hard and you just read this for free. You are the mouthpiece of your 4th point of contact ahaha
I often wonder why writers on sports sites respond to wounded posters.
svetlana;
I like Soto. Have since the week he was called up.
He hit the jackpot when the Padres traded him to the Yankees. The short RF porch gave him HR’s for routine fly balls. The NY media and fans are some o the least knowledgeable in baseball and football (they seem to get basketball and hockey). They understand bullies: HR hitters and fastball pitchers.
Juan Soto is playing his game. He’s truly one of the best hitters in MLB. You are correct – he’s not one of the best players in MLB. And anyone doing decently in pro sports that plays in NYC is going to be blown out of proportion by the national sports media. Always has been. Always will be.
Soto’s agent – Scott Boras (who I admire a lot) is going to play this to the hilt. During his career Mr. Boras has often gotten outrageous contracts for his big name FA’s. Unfortunately, some of those contracts turned out to be so bad that the teams involved were hampered for years. They had to cut corners on payroll elsewhere resulting – at best – in their teams being less competitive; and at worst – having the franchise put up for sale. During those signings there were always media people celebrating the player involved and citing selected statistics saying that MLB had never seen a player like him.
You are totally correct. Juan Soto is not Shohei Ohtani. Mr. Ohtani with his pitching/hitting is simply the greatest player in MLB history. Fans throughout the world are witnessing something exceptional. Mr. Soto is not Ted Williams. He’s not Mel Ott. He is a very good hitter – one of the best in MLB today.
Great points. I don’t know if $440mm is the ceiling due to the many potential bidders but seems outrageous to give him a $600mm contract when he doesn’t do what Ohtani does. I’d be surprised if the contract is much above $500mm, if at all. Unless there are massive deferrals.
Ohtani may never do again what he used to do. Labrum surgery, UCL surgery, he’s 30 years old not getting any younger. The future is uncertain for all these guys but Soto does have youth on his side (if his paperwork is properly validated) and he’s so far very durable. Soto is going to get paid.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
4 hours ago
Ohtani may never do again what he used to do. Labrum surgery, UCL surgery, he’s 30 years old not getting any younger. The future is uncertain for all these guys but Soto does have youth on his side (if his paperwork is properly validated) and he’s so far very durable. Soto is going to get paid.
_________________________________________________
I bet Soto will never do what Ohtani did in the 2024 regular season despite his youth (which is questionable, think Albert Pujols).
svetlana
I hope the Yankees overpay for Soto.
The Red Sox don’t need another future left-handed designated hitter.
The Red Sox should stick to their Golden Field and Anthony’s future prospect.
So, if the Jays were to sign just the players listed above for what they believe they would be asking for, the team would have to add 134 million to the payroll just for players the writers named the Jays as being in the mix. That isn’t including other relievers they could sign without compromising their minors system. That would put the Jays over 320 million a season and 400 Million with the exchange rate, making the team the top spending team in baseball and there are NO guarantees that signing any of the players would make a difference since baseball is a team game.
That’s kind of an unfair take. If it was just one writer’s predictions, that amounted to $134M, then you’d be right. But there are 4 people making predictions, and they don’t agree on most of the 50. I doubt any single writer predicted the Jays to spend that kind of money.
Ashleyr;
LOL
I noticed that as well.
The Jays have far too many players underperforming their contracts. Logic would be that they take a step back and see if they can get someone to take those players and pay what they need to in order to make it happen. Instead, MLBTR’s writers suggest that the Jays continue to do what they’ve done to get them where they are today (last place in the ALE).
Then again, through Mark Shapiro’s efforts they’ve turned the area of Toronto that they play in into a revenue-generating entertainment complex – which is the future of all processional sports, not just in North America but the world.as well. That area generates revenues year-round, not just during the baseball season.
Perhaps the MLBTR writers will prove correct. Shapiro and Atkins keep trying, but they can’t seem to unearth a good amount of young prospects that in turn they develop, bring up to the major leagues, continue to make better, and have a good percentage of their roster under 6 years of control at reasonable salaries. But it’s skinning-a-cat time. We don’t know the revenues that the Jays / Rogers Centre are generating. Just putting a baseball team contending for a playoff spot may be all that’s necessary with their situation. The fact is that come September 1 the leagues usually have 10-11 of their 15 teams in contention for a playoff spot (look at what happened with the Tigers this year!).
Maybe the money IS there for the Jays to sign even more players to contracts that don’t age well.
Carlos Santana can’t even earn an honorable mention?
Seems a lock for more than 5 million. Easy.
$5 mil generally isn’t enough for an HM. But he has a shot at 10, sure.
I’m not complaining. Anyone who does should make their own list. I have no desire to.
However… Number 50 you have at 1 year 7 million. You say Santana has a shot at 10. A shot isn’t a prediction but if 10m is a shot 7m could have a stronger word used. He has name recognition. Just won gold glove. Couldn’t have found the space for 1 more unranked name? I would side with darinc if I took a side. I would guess he gets 6 7 or 8. So if 7 makes top 50 list I would say Santana is worthy of a honorable mention.
We have always given ourselves some flexibility at the end of the list to choose a few specific players.
Frankly, I don’t think we find Santana interesting. HM, sure, he could’ve had a spot there.
Sometimes I wonder if MLBTR should change their name to MLBGeneralManagerPrognosticators
In the wake of the Ohtani contract, Boras told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.”
You guys are serious quoting that conspiracy shit from Boras, which basically implies that Ohtani is some kind of evil mastermind.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=e4nXOTuX53U
reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1bcvvqw/passan_the_…
No it doesn’t. Boras comment implies that MLB said “Hey Dodgers, since you’re one of us and you’d also like AAV records to move forward very slowly, could you try to find a contract formulation that Ohtani likes that barely moves the AAV record forward?” And then the AAV record moves forward by 1.1%.
It’s true that it could be a coincidence that the AAV record went from 43.3 to (arguably) 43.7.
What are you even talking about when the contract structure is Ohtani’s idea?
“As the total guarantee increased, the Dodgers proposed different structures that would allow them payroll flexibility, including the possibility of deferred money, like in Betts’ and Freeman’s deals.”
But I agree: Ohtani didn’t want an outlandish CBT AAV, because it would be bad for the Dodgers. So neither side wanted that.
You have a a superstar player who didn’t care much about moving the AAV record forward despite having that opportunity. But that it moved so very little suggests possible pressure from MLB to keep that down. I don’t think that’s a tinfoil hat idea.
This is kind of getting away from the main point: you believe Soto will get less than 500 mil. If you end up correct you are entitled to all the victory laps.
Ignore Svetlana, they have terrible takes and clearly haven’t watched the players they mention. Soto is a generational talent with the bat. He’s 25. He might get BETTER than this year. He hit 41 home runs and it’s not hard to see him making it to 45 or in a crazy good year 50.
My take is similar to someone I heard on MLB yesterday. Boras will try to get Soto to eclipse Ohtani’s contract in some form (total value, years, or AAV), and define it as Ohtani “setting the market.” But the problem is he’s not Ohtani, doesn’t provide the pitching value, or the marketing revenue value, and the better comp is Bryce Harper. Of course, Boras will bend over backwards trying to refute that, but all team Execs know it’s true. So I’m thinking best case for Soto is 500-550 range.
Tim – that all goes back to MLBPA and MLB using different discount rates, though.
MLB’s discount rate, iirc, is the one that’s used for calculating value of deferred comp for CBT purposes and is a market-ish rate (annual federal mid-term rate). That puts the increase (to $46.1 million) at ~6.5%.
And I think MLBPA uses the flat 5% discount rate that’s applied for fully funding present value of deferred comp? (So that players with deferred comp don’t end up as big $ unsecured creditors of clubs lacking in assets.) That’s somewhat relevant, but I’d argue less so.
From a theoretical corporate finance standpoint, I think I’d go with what it would cost a team each year to buy zero coupon U.S. treasuries in a manner that fully funds – over Ohtani’s 10 years of playing – the deferred comp eventually due to him. That’s the true PV cost of paying his deferred comp. My best guess is the MLB number better approximates that, because it uses a current market (or at least market-ish) interest rate.
Anyway, thanks for the thoughtful and interesting commentary, including interacting with us here.
I mean backup catchers, Spencer Turnbull, unproven 35 yo foreign pitchers on here over HOF Kenley Jansen. What are we doing
I think we considered D-Rob a little better than Kenley right now and didn’t feel the need for both decent old RH relievers to be on there. Not sure why that’s bad
Tim – Fantastic job as always on this, really appreciate your team’s efforts in putting this together.
I can see why some were expecting Kenley to be on the list, based on this statement of yours: “These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power.”
If the list is truly based on earning power, Kenley needs to be on it. He’s earned at least $16M annually every year since 2019 and he’s coming off a very solid year. His next contract should put him at least in the Top 40.
I think we have Kenley in the 12 range. We normally make an exception on the #50 spot on the list and this year we did it for 49 and 50. I agree that doing so warranted an explanation for the various less interesting (to us) 12 mil guys we left off. We also think Carson Kelly can get 12 mil, for example.
I don’t know how you maintain your composure when guys are arguing about who should be #50.
Lots of big market crunchy fans out there over this article. Anxiety over a potential let down must be sky high
Shocked to see the Mariners listed here several times. Surprised the writers haven’t yet learned that spending money on top 50 free agents just isn’t what they do.
But but Robbie Ray.
I love this site and this article every year, but this feels way, way, WAY too rich for Flaherty. I’m extremely confident that the Dodgers would not be giving him 5 years. Also, Treinen will get more than $7MM for the ’25 season, you can mark that down.
I like Treinen more than my colleagues, but 7 isn’t really the bar. We just added Turnbull at the end for being mildly interesting. I can see Treinen getting 10-12.
Agree, I thought Treinen would be top 50 and will be closer to 10M. I feel like the Mets will be in on him.
I feel like there’s a good chance that he’s back with the Dodgers, but if another team threw something like 2/20 at him, then who knows. I feel like a one-year deal with LA for between $8-10MM, perhaps with incentives, is the most likely outcome. At his age and with his postseason usage, the Dodgers are probably aware that it would be best if he were limited to 40-50 regular season innings, and they have the ability to pay him while limiting his workload. That should also appeal to Treinen.
The Braves really don’t know what they are doing. First Freeman, then Swanson, now they let TD go. TD better come back on another deal. Right moves would be trading Ozuna and letting Fried walk.
I don’t think they are bringing back Travis Demeritte, sorry to tell you.
Would like for my Mets to get in on Buehler, Bieber and Treinen, I highly doubt that Washington is going to sign Alonso lol If C.Walker would sign for 2-3 years I would sign him for the Mets, let Alonso go..
So as a Mets fan with $180 mil coming off the books I would sign Soto, C.Walker, Buehler, Bieber, Treinen, than resign Manaea, Winker and Iglesias. Trade McNeil and Marte, no need for either of them.
Who is rolling their dumpster up to the Mets clubhouse for Marte?
Why are the Mets giving up multiple picks and international money to sign QOd players?
Marte for Jordan Montgomery could actually make some sense, scary as that scenario is.
AZ already has four outfielders who are better than Marte. How would Marte make sense?
I’m going off the assumption they want to badly offload montgomery so may be willing to take a year of a contract of a still useful player at a slightly cheaper price. Sadly, marte should mostly be a DH at this point anyway.
Thought Moncada would be mentioned somewhere.
Sadly nothing
I don’t see the A’s dipping that many toes in the high-leverage reliever pool. Even if they converted Miller to SP, their competitive window isn’t in the “beef up the bullpen” stage.
If you are reading this far…I did the inputting of the team picks and was pretty fried and it looks like I made some input errors on the other guys’ picks. We’re working to correct those now and we’ll put a note up when that’s done.
OK, we only had errors on a handful of Steve’s picks (#10-15) plus a lack of D-Rob pick. All of that is fixed now.
Still can’t make a decision. Soto to the Sacramento A’s or Chicago White Sox? Hmm…. tough decision.
Marlins obviously.
Profar is worth more.
Thanks y’all! Appreciate the hard work! Max Fried and Tyler O’Neill to the O’s!
I wonder if teams who are coming off bad seasons with a core of young talent try the Royals approach from last off-season. Teams that come to mind mentioned in this list include the Nationals and Athletics.
Love the article! Today was like Christmas morning but at 4PM CST!
Mariners going to swoop in on Soto like they did with Cano!
I’ll show myself out
I remember last offseason when actual Mariner fans thought they were saving their money to make a run at Ohtani. Hahahahaha!!
Interesting that they have Pivetta and Martinez both accepting the QO (i hope, at least with Pivetta, that they are correct)
How does Spencer Turnbull crack the top 50 over Kenley or Chapman?
I received this answer on Santana so maybe the same reason?
“We have always given ourselves some flexibility at the end of the list to choose a few specific players.
Frankly, I don’t think we find Santana interesting. HM, sure, he could’ve had a spot there.”
If healthy, Turnbull could be a very good player in a RP/#6 role. Philly got killed when he got hurt and they had to put Walker into the rotation.
Thanks so much. One day I will be a subscriber, the off-season planning articles are great.
$30 per year.
Definitely worth it
I would love for the Dodgers to take a chance on Bieber.
If Mike Rizzo or Mark Lerner throw that much money at Pete Alonso, I’ll go down to Nats park and throw myself in the Anacostia.
Seems pretty cheap to me. Please do not throw yourself in a river
The consensus estimate from you and your colleagues is a reasonable guess in a vacuum but I don’t see a Boras client fresh off a deep run settling for less of a raise than he got in arbitration last year.
Alonso’s also on the wrong side of 30, so count me among the detractors, I guess.
Last, and on a tangent, an aging slugger with few or no defensive uses ought to be a cherry and not the sundae for a team emerging from a rebuild with practically no payroll constraints. If this guy winds up our free agent splash for the winter, I won’t be the only Nats fan making his own splash.
I wrote this somewhere else, but Alonso is (I believe) the best in baseball at picking throws from fielders. Which can be valuable especially in that Washington infield. His defensive shortcomings are a bit overstated. He’s overall at an average level now.
Brewers will not go after pitching in FA. If anything they would attempt to land Kim.
Why would the Astros sign Bader? They already have Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers. Signing Bader would just be redundant and they need to address 1B/SP/3B more.
I don’t believe Steve and Darragh have properly compensated what the Yankees will do if they don’t re-sign Soto as it relates to the other free agents. Losing Soto and Gleyber means they will have significant gaps to cover in their offense that already had gaps. Money to spend and significant needs to fill means they’ll be in on more free agents. Can’t replace Soto, but they can’t throw their arms in the air and give up on other free agents.
Would love to see Teoscar come to Cincy – but my “in a perfect world” pick is Santander. Ideally they’d get Santander and just stick him in the DH spot to hit tanks.
Orioles need league level hitting in particular from the rightside. From the FA market get Bregman. If not Bregman, Torres.
On the pitching side, current group available 2 thru 5 is doable. The need is a TOR level guy. Burnes, Snell and Fried seem logical but so pricey. Who’s left? Via trade Gray. Nasty high annual but shorter term makes it work.
Love the article as always.
Was there any talk among you of the Dodgers resigning Buehler? I know a lot of fans want him back.. I personally would hate to see him pitching ace level with another team after all that rehab with the Dodgers.
I was shocked to see Royals next to any of the names of the above listed players. In years past, there wouldn’t have even been sniff of the name Royals. I would love the Royals to get Santander, but he will probably be outside of their payroll flexibilities.
It’s a shame that a team like the Pirates won’t go the extra mile to sign a bigger bat. Not sure that either O’Neil or Conforto is that big bat that makes the big impact they need
But hey, let’s keep calling the franchise “cash strapped” when really, it’s owner greed.
As for a relief arm like Robertson at. $11M, jeez, you must be joking. I don’t think Bednar is out of the picture as closer just yet and doubt the Pirates do, either. Why spend that cash here?
Arte pulls an Arte 12 years between 540 to 600 for Soto. Angels turn around and trade Ward, Reginfo and Detmers for a middle of the rotation starter and an infielder who can’t hit or field
Soto would need a billion to go there.
I will be surprised if Soto matches the $46 million AAV of the Ohtani contract. Soto has neither the marketing value of Ohtani nor the value on the field of Ohtani.
Yankees should look into Christian Walker if 3-60M is the price. He’s an elite defender with three Gold Gloves and a solid hitter (28-90 and 120 OPS+.
The drawbacks are he’s a righty rather than lefty, plus he carries draft compensation (2nd and 5th highest picks plus 1M international bonus money)
No way Buehler is a 1/15 guy. I’m a Giants fan and this guy is the ultimate bulldog. He had a typical post TJ season. I’d take him in a second for 6/120 with opt outs.
A few thoughts.
Soto is going to get $700 million. If that takes going 15 years or even longer, then I think that is his goal. He seems more interested in getting the biggest contract ever than breaking the AAV record. His contract is going to be similar to what Arod got from the Rangers in terms of AAV and much, much longer. The $25.2 million AAV that Arod received has a value of $45.86 million today.
What do you think that looks like?
Me? 16/701.
16 years? That is crazy. Yes, it is. Soto is a unicorn. He is only the 3rd player in the last 30 years that will be a FA going into his age 26 season, his calling card is hitting not defense, and 16 years takes him through his age 40 season. 16 years vs 13 years lowers the AAV for CBT purposes and since players have played through 40, MLB cannot object.
If what Boras said was true about Soto being that close to signing with the Padres, Sheel Seidler and Eric Kutsenda may step up and make a run at him in FA.
Profar will not get more than $12 million AAV. Probably not even that high of a number. No matter how good Profar’s numbers were with the bat in the 2024 season, he is a 1.3 WAR, 105 OPS+, 107 wRC+ player with poor defense from 2021-2024. Down the stretch in 2024 he struggled. He is going into his age 32 season in 2025 and like nearly every non-steroid aided player he is almost guaranteed to regress going forward. Will he regress from 2024 and stay above his numbers as a Padre or will he regress below his averages of the last 4 seasons? That is the multi-million $$ question.
Mitch Haniger is a cautionary tale for Padres fans saying to sign Profar to a contract for whatever he wants. Coming off 2.0 WAR avg and 117 OPS+ from age 28-31, Haniger regressed to -0.2 WAR avg and 80 OPS+ in the 2 seasons after signing a 3/43.5 deal with the Giants.
The Padres will be much more active on big names than this list gives them credit for. They were able to reset the CBT and have a solid core. Other than bench players, they need a middle of the rotation starter, a catcher, and a replacement for Profar when he asks for far too much money like he did last time. Expect them to be in play for big names in FA and trade that they can lock up for multiple years.
I also think there are a few NPB and KBO players the Padres will be in on including LHP Ogasawara and 1B/OF Okamoto.
Guys the Padres will not be in on at the prices being mentioned.
Frankie Montas. The Padres no longer want to play in the bottom of the barrel and that is where Montas has sunk over the last 2 seasons.
Nick Martinez. Been there, done that, have the t-shirt. He is a great wingman, but the Padres need a middle of the rotation starter.
Kyle Higashioka. Like Gary Sanchez after his 2023 season with the Padres, Higashioka seems intent on cashing in after a mediocre season. If he is asking for a 350% raise, take a pass.
Ha-Seong Kim. No one will know if Kim can throw a baseball until after the season begins. Defense is his calling card. He is a mediocre hitter. 37% of players, pitchers and position players, that have the same surgery on their throwing shoulder that Kim had never return to being as good as they were before. If you are the one betting money, would you take those odds to sign him either to a 1-year deal where the most he will play is 3 months or a long-term deal? Maybe he signs a deal late in spring training if he can show he is ahead of schedule in his rehab and has a workout with teams to prove he is able to throw. At this point, I would not take that bet.
One of the lower price guys that I think the Padres should be mentioned in relation to is swingman Jakob Junis. He seems like the Preller type of pitcher that could be signed to another one of those multi-year deals with opt outs after each season.
Another is 35-year-old Travis d’Arnaud, a glove first catcher that hit reasonably well in 2024 (15HR and 103 OPS+), but that the Braves did not feel was worth the $8 million club option. A 2-year, $10 million deal to provide a bridge to Salas for 50% less than Higashioka is projected to get would be a great fit. Like Higashioka, d’Arnaud is a SoCal native. d’Arnaud still lives in SoCal not far from his hometown of Long Beach in the offseason and opened baseball academy there this year.
How is Michael Wacha NOT considered a Top 50 Free Agent and the likes of Harrison Bader, Tommy Kahnle, Kyle Gibson, Walker Buehler, A.J. Minter & Michael Conforto, etc. are?!?!?!?!
Geez!!!! Not even an HONORABLE MENTION for Wacha/!?!?!?!?!
He already signed
My Picks:
1. Ju. Soto – N.Y.M.
2. C. Burnes – S.F.
3. Bregman – Det.
4. Snell – Bal.
5. Adames – Tor.
6. Fried – L.A.D.
7. P. Alonso – N.Y.M.
8. Flaherty – Cle.
9. Santander – Ari.
10. Manaea – Det.
11. T. Hernandez – L.A.D.
12. Y. Kikuchi – Hou.
13. Chri. Walker – Was.
14. T. Scott – N.Y.Y.
15. L. Severino – Phi.
16. J. Profar – S.D.
17. Eovaldi – Bos.
18. J. Hoffman – ChC
19. T. O’Neill – Cin.
20. G. Torres – Sea.
21. Cl. Holmes – K.C.
22. C. Estevez – Tor.
23. Ma. Boyd – Was.
24. J. Pederson – Sea.
25. An. Heaney – Min.
26. Hyesong Kim – N.Y.Y.
27. Fr. Montas – L.A.A.
28. N. Pivetta – Atl.
29. N. Martinez – Mil.
30. Da. Jansen – ChC
31. Jo. Quintana – K.C.
32. Mi. Conforto – Col.
33. M. Scherzer – Det.
34. A.J. Minter – Cin.
35. Goldschmidt – Hou.
36. Higashkioka – Tor.
37. W. Buehler – Bal.
38. K. Yates – S.D.
39. Soroka – Mia.
40. An. Kittredge – Det.
41. K. Gibson – Tex.
42. T. Kahnle – Ari.
43. Ha-S. Kim – Mil.
44. Sh. Bieber – Cle.
45. Ju. Verlander – Bos.
46. T. Sugano – S.F.
47. D. Robertson – Tex.
48. Ogasawara – ChC
49. H. Bader – Phi.
50. Sp. Turnbull – Min.
Only teams I had adding Nobody: T.B., ChW.S., Sac., St.L, Pit., S.D.
Among the H.M.s, I could actually see J.D. Martinez w/ T.B.
I could see Trevor Williams w/ St.L.
I could see Wacha return to the Padres (that or maybe join the Nats that are seeing some fruits of their Rebuild)..
I could see Jak. Junis w/ Sac.
Grichuk to the Royals?
I think where the top 50 is concerned, you’re right about the Pirates. Between moving Cruz to CF and bringing in De la Cruz for RF, it kind of negates the idea of them signing O’Neil and Conforto, as the article predicts. I guess the wild card is them moving Reynolds to 1st which in my mind makes little sense when on one hand, you have no outfielder in waiting to take LF and on the other, have a logjam of guys like Davis, Bart, Endy, and even Triolo, who could move to 1st or at least try
I’d make Reynolds wait 1 more year before moving to 1st, so can capitalize on a veteran power bat like Bell or Santana for a year in which the Pirates could do some damage
Agree with your thought about Reynolds but I’m not sure Bell or Santana move the needle much, at least not unless Bell would have a similar season that he did in his last season here
They have Endy, Bart, Davis and even Triolo as viable candidates to play 1st. One of those first three will be the catcher, too. Why sign either of the guys you mentioned when it’s likely someone you already have can do as well, if not better?
For everyone saying how much they love this article but isn’t a Front Office subscriber, how about throwing $30 their way for this article and everything they do all year long?!?!?
Verlander will be demanding an AARP discount thrown in with any new contract.
This is a great article, but I don’t understand the apparent disconnect between the predictions at the top of each entry and the text below. For example, take Joc Pederson, where two of the four predictions are the Mets, but they’re not even mentioned as potential suitors below.
If Verlander will sign a 12 million deal, the Astros would be stupid not to sign him to that….it would be a 10 million dollar savings for them. It would be a no-brainer.
For the pirate mentions.
Profar at 3/45, I wouldn’t be upset but not really happy. the position flexibility and the often being above average bat in SD seems okay.
O’Neill not at 3/42. For me not interested in him at all
Torres Maybe at 2/36 solid but not spectacular. If you don’t get Profar or Kim….
Kim, for sure. If its an option at 3/24 go for it.
Conforto, if it is a legit option you do it.
Robertson, I lean go for it
Bader no way.
I’d take a legitimate run at Sugano on a 1/2 year deal and Ogasawara on a 3-5 year deal. Pirates look good on near future Rotation but getting a stop gap in Sugano or a long term option with Ogasawara to give trade flexability to bring in a bat would be nice. Both look like they are MLB rotation arms who seem to be inning eaters(?)
I’d also keep tabs on Janson and Chapman again. Robertson being a first choice but picking up another vet pen arm is bonus.
Bats Bats Bats primary goal. Pen secondary. Starter if you can.
Didn’t see this post at first, but I mentioned Josh Bell & Max Kepler on 1 year deals
(probably in the 6-10mil range) for Pirates
One of the more ridiculous encomiums for Soto, imagining a 5 bWAR player in 4 of his 6 full seasons and who has never cracked 8 bWAR is a ‘once every quarter of a century FA.’
Forgetting that foolishness, is Soto a tremendous, tremendous hitter? Of course.he is, but among authentic superstars he’s more bottom of the barrel than he is even mid-tier. Betts, for example, spotted Soto one full and one partial season and even so had a WAR within statistical insignificance through age 25. Betts had also put up a 10.7 WAR season by age 25. Soto’s best? 7.9 WAR. Your value is unpleasantly capped no matter how tremendous a hitter you are (non-Ted Williams division) if you’re a corner OFer, more LFer than RFer, and a poor one at that.
The problem that creates for any team adding Soto at something like a $45m AAV over 13-14 years is that he’s not likely to add much surplus value to the annual cost of his contract __even in his prime.__
Interesting, that the Dodgers have recognized that the largest of the remaining undervalued assets in baseball is the in-prime superstar.
Regarding recent Soto-to-the-Dodgers rumors, with Ohtani on the books for a decade and a crying need to reserve the DH slot for him that only increased with news of labrum surgery, it’s hard to see LA finding room for Soto, particularly given the lack of surplus value they’ll get by paying a 5-6 or 5-7 WAR LFer who rates to be or should be a DH by 29, something like a $45m AAV when Wins are going in FA for $8.5m each.
That contrasts with other of the LAD’s moves where surplus value was the aim and paid off: Freeman, 6.5 WAR in 2023 for $27m. Betts, 8.3 WAR in 2023 for $31m. Ohtani, 9.9 WAR in 2024 for $45m.
It’s fair to describe Soto as having been on average a 6 WAR player / season, pro rating him for partial seasons in 2018 and 2020. That’s not nearly enough, if you’re paying that player a $45m AAV over nearly a decade and a half. Also, fielding is notorious for being the first skill to decline, with decline typically setting in in players’ early 20s. That bodes ill for Soto remaining in the field, further capping his value.
Contrast that with Ohtani, with what will probably turn out to be a similar AAV, but who put up 10, 10, and 9 WAR seasons immediately prior to signing with LA. Granted a team is getting the heart of Soto’s career, but it’s also the case that players with old players’ skills (walks, power, and it ends there for Soto) don’t tend to age well.
Between needing to reserve the DH slot for Ohtani and how Soto’s likely price doesn’t give the acquiring team much benefit during his prime in the matter of $$$ per Win, it’s hard to foresee the Dodgers come anywhere near biting, as Soto’s deal violates the Dodgers’ emphasis on the surplus value likely to accrue in the player’s prime as it has so far with Freeman, Betts, and Ohtani, in compensation for the cost of inevitable decline..
The team simply won’t be getting compensated enough in advance of Soto’s decline phase to fit with their preference for signing premium free agents capable of putting up Win totals in a given year worth twice the going rate for FA $$$ per Win.
Who knew two decades ago that the thinking behind Moneyball, involving the search for undervalued assets, might eventually lead one of the high payroll, huge market teams to treat a certain kind superstar as _the_ most undervalued asset in the game?
WAR is vastly misleading because the differential is based on the next man up for your position.. I’ll give you an example, Mike Trout had a WAR of 10.5 because his backup was Peter Bourjos at CF. Now would he have had the same WAR or such a high WAR if let’s say Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers was his backup. The answer is no to both.
I feel the Pirates would do well to sign Max Kepler and Josh Bell to 1 year deals.
Fill out the lineup
2025 is their year
Dude they’re getting Christian Walker!
I wish
As a Phillies fan this list is depressing as hell.
I used to look forward to the Hot Stove Season every November when I was young. The awards would be held the first week, and then around November 7-8th, we would get right to it. Trades and signings would occur in mid-November through the last week of December or first week of January tops. Then the baseball card and fantasy baseball magazines would get released at the end of January and everyone would know which player went to which team. We would even know who won the MLB Trade Rumors 50 top free agent contest around this time..
But now thanks to Scott Boras, Hot Stove lasts well into April and even early May. The players themselves are ill prepared because they haven’t even had Spring Training yet and have to report to AAA. This sucks! The contest is ruined. By the time Spring Training rolls around, pretty much everyone has moved on and some people have even forgotten about it. Thanks a lot Scott Boras for having your guys stick it out for the drop of every last penny!
Does Sasaki get added into the Top 15 now since he got posted after the list was made?
“Good as Soto was,” “Good as a player as Bregman is,” “successful as he’s been,” and “excellent as Yates was” are ALL NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It isn’t optional, and neither is correct grammar for professional writers. You guys need an editor, badly. You all don’t know basic grammar.
Nor do you get punctuation. There should be no comma before “too” or “either.” When “but” starts a sentence, there shouldn’t be a comma after it. What a complete hack job by these poor excuses for sportswriters.
One thing I’d wish you guys could do is put the “actual deal amount” directly below your EST #’s. You guys are pretty good at your EST. (sometimes) . it would be much easier for us to read instead of scrolling up and down.
Or even a 1 page 100 line recap after F/A is 95% done?
*Hell, I’d even pay a extra $1 a year for that 8-) Thanks.
I think Ha-Seong Kim and Hyeseong Kim should sign with the same team, just to create total confusion.