Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Max Fried (Braves)
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
- Sean Manaea (Mets)
- Luis Severino (Mets)
- Nick Martinez (Reds)
As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.
If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.
Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.
Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.
There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.
Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.
No Walker? Oh oh
he’s there
No he’s not
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
I thought QO could only be used once per team
Once per player
That is the franchise tag in the NFL, as I understand.
Difference is MLB players can decline it
I’m glad we didn’t give Gleyber one, great job on the Yankees.
Ain’t nobody on Earth considering giving Gleyber Torres $21mil, why would you even worry about that?
Unless he played all of his games against the Orioles.
Na Na, Na-Na Na Na, Gley Gley Gley, go-ood BYE!
@mrmackey
Like a good Gleyber, go over there.
Pivetta and Nick Martinez better sit back and be patient because teams aren’t going to give up picks and international money to sign those two.
I think they better thank the stars and accept those offers.
They should take the money
A large market won’t care as their pick wouldn’t be high anyway and could care less about an international market when they can buy players here.
That’s 21 million to spend on other players. Better players.
This is crazy. Manaea and Martinez aren’t quite as bad. I absolutely hate Severino and Pivetta getting the qualifying offer. Especially with the Red Sox not giving one to ONeill that was double dumb.
I’m sure O’Neill is happy not being tagged.
I am the biggest ONeill fan around i am happy for him. But the Red Sox dropped the ball. He wouldn’t have accepted.
We all know this will be the RS big move in the offseason instead of going after the big names they’ve turned into a clown organization now
I like O’Neill but glad Sox didn’t make the QO. He’s an excellent slugger but not a good hitter. It’s like he closes his eyes and swings and runs into one once in a while. Way too much swing and miss. Also, has a challenge staying in the field. A guy in scoring position or on third and less than 2 outs you got to get your bat on the ball much more than he can.
I wish my job would offer me a 21 million QO for 2025.
We know you would turn it down to hit the market.
I’d add Severino to that list too.
Manaea and maybe Teo too imo
Manaea is set for 3/45 at least. If he took 21
and had an off year and a year older, might have trouble getting the balance so go with the bigger total pot.
Yeah but if he has another year like this one he’s back in the market with no QO attached and another solid year under his belt all while making more than he’s ever made
Oh – for starters after 1 year deal he would be going into age 34 year. Also, at 3/45 I’ve seen even 3/55, that IS more money than he has made his entire career!
With his injury history and his recent down years immediately preceding this pretty good year, he most definitely should take a 3 year deal now at 45-55.
If he spends time on IL (not even TJ), or just ticks back up over 4.00 ERA and other stats drop off, his chances at a 2 year 20/25 year deal next year drop drastically.
He would have to have a year like he hasn’t had in a long time, make 30 starts and give everyone the impression that he has found the fountain of youth to do better than 3/55 ish that he is projected to get now.
If I am Nick Martinez I am frantically looking for a pen lol
Surprised the Mets gave them to those two.
Mets have tons of money and need pitching. They’ll likely be able to retain Severino as an overpay but it eliminates one major free agent need.
I’m not surprised about Manaea. Over his last 17 starts (from July 1 on) – 105.1 innings, 3.16 ERA, 108 Ks, 29 BB. He changed his arm angle and had some success. Not ace material but well worth the QO.
I’m a little surprised about Sevy getting it. He was much more of an “average” pitcher. But maybe the Mets feel like since it was his first full season since 2018 that maybe next year he’ll be even better. Would not be surprised if Sevy accepted it.
Plus Polar Bear, that’s a quick $63MM out the window if they all accept! (Doubt Pete will, but still notable…)
What if you could get Josh Naylor for cheaper at 1B? More money to go after others…
Severino, Martinez and Pivetta should accept.
Martinez should accept that offer.
Pivetta the only real surprise here. He and Martinez should sign before I get done typing this.
Mets didn’t want to lose two rotation pieces so they’ll likely overpay for Severino.
I think Hernandez ends up in LA for 3 or 4 years. He might accept the QO if the deal isn’t finalized in time, but and extension is ultimately announced.
Didn’t I read somewhere that the qualifying offer was 21 million? Couldn’t the Reds get someone better than Martinez for that much? Just asking.
they likely can get better than Martinez for $21 million.
The Reds also just hammered his free agent market, though, and pretty much opened an exclusive negotiating window to work out a longer term deal with a lower annual salary.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3 year $40-$45 million type deal ultimately get worked out.
Yea I know inflation is brutal but 21 million for Nick Martinez seems pretty crazy. I’m rooting for Nick to keep pitching well, but he should probably take the money.
I’d like to see the Os keep both Burnes and Santander, but the likelihood of either resigning is pretty small.
Giving the qo doesn’t take that option off the table. They can still negotiate with them during the exclusivity window and once they hit the market.
With all the depth in the outfield, I think Santander is an obvious choice to go somewhere else. My guess? Yankees once they lose out on Soto.
I don’t know he’s barely an 800 ops hitter with all those homers. Not sure they need another guy like that.
If they Jays are somewhat smart, They should pounce quickly on Shane Bieber and Paul Goldschmidt this off season.
It give them a legit Ace once he returns from rehabbing and the flexibility to play Vlad Jr. at 3B when Goldy plays 1B and someone else DH’s in the event of course, that they don’t land Bregman, which is another player that they should highly pursuit as it could help revive Springer’s career with his influence as a Jay and training together.
Goody is showing his age and Bieber hasn’t been healthy for several years. He won’t even be back pitching until mid year, and control is the last thing that comes back. He is a control type pitcher with lower than average speed. Are you sure you want to spend your off season money on a guy like this?
It’s ridiculous IMO that a team that no longer has a contractual claim to a FREE AGENT player should get any compensation for that player signing a new contract as a FREE AGENT.
By definition, a FREE AGENT is free of any contractual control.
The extreme ridiculous example of this was in 1983, when the White Sox lost pitcher Dennis Lamp as a free agent, and he signed with the Blue Jays.
With the free agent compensation system at the time, the Mets were penalized for this when the White Sox were able to take Tom Seaver.
The only thing more ridiculous than free agent compensation is a third team being penalized for another team signing a free agent.
Dude…the qo and draft compensation system is a bargained agreement of policy under the cba. And a couple edge cases from the 1980s are not relevant to present day agreements and policy. You can find it as ridiculous as you want but I’m pretty sure fa compensation has generally been an ownership/mlb “need” or goal in bargaining, and a concession on the part of the mlbpa. So while some individual owners may grumble about it, apparently a strong majority of teams have wanted things to work this way.
This will severely depress Pivetta’s earning power as a FA. Teams are not going to want to sacrifice a draft pick unless they can get him at a bargain rate. I expect he’ll accept, and if he doesn’t I wouldn’t be surprised if he has to settle for less than the QO itself.