Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.
The players who rejected the offer:
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Max Fried (Braves)
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.
All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.
A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.
If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).
The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.
These were all easy decisions.
MLB – For whatever reason, commenters believed guys like Severino and Pivetta would be jumping at the QO because supposedly they aren’t worthy of anything better. Really boggles the mind.
Everyone and their brother knew Pivetta would pass it up. It’s his last payday and 3 x 17 or 18 is more than 21 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.
Gary – Last payday? At age 31?
He’ll be pitching for at least 6 more years.
By “last payday” I mean a good $$ contract. No one’s paying him his 15 to 20 million per season at age 34 or 35. I should have been clearer.
Gary – I think trying to predict his earning power in 3 years is pointless. You could be right, or he could be “fixed” and blossom into a strong half of his career. Never know.
It is a higher AAV than they are likely to get, but half or less the guaranteed money. I was hoping he would accept, as it would have been a good deal for the Red Sox.
tff – I agree with all that, but I’m kinda losing confidence that Bailey & Company can resolve the homerun issue and unlock the next level for Pivetta.
I’d really like to see what a team like the Braves could do to get his ERA under 3.50
Agreed, you only pay for what he is, not what he might be. Part of the problem is that he is an extreme flyball pitcher. There are better parks for him.
Did Pivetta actually decline?
They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract.
He declined. They mean if doesn’t go on to sign a longer deal with the Sox
They get a pick provided he signs with someone else before AS break – is that correct?
I think it’s before the draft.
Bummer…here I was thinking Soto would accept the QO and play for the Yankees for another year. Sigh.
Same. Seemed like such an obvious choice, he will probably regret it for the rest of his life!
Now you’re a philosophizer. Good one Peter La Fleur
Me’Shell!
*snaps fingers*
Nobody makes me bleed my own blood… nobody!
Well done Mr. Breslow! I’d have never considered offering Pivetta a QO. Him right and Joey wrong!
Seems like many on this board misjudged the Pivetta market..nicely done Craig Breslow
Pivetta will be looked into in a lot of places in the offseason. Hopefully Boston can bring him back and continue to develop him.
Pool – They also thought Pivetta was oblivious to the offers he has received. So fans here know more about what he is being offered than the man who actually received said offers? Ridiculous lack of critical thinking.
The thing is that the Red Sox win either way. If he accepts it they have their fifth starter and a guy who eats innings. No problem.
But I think pitching is so tough to find that someone will step up and give Nick 3 years at a pretty nice rate for him.
Still surprised Pivetta and Severino are declining. Not gonna say it’s necessarily a bad move on their part but surprised.
I’m kind of surprised Walker declined but at the same time I’m sure he can get at least a 2 or 3 year deal from anyone who isn’t swimming in Pete Alonso waters
Walker is getting a 3 year deal from someone, as you mentioned anyone that doesn’t want to chase Pete Alonso.
Walker is going to be one of the most sought after free agent position players. He will easily get a three year deal. I’d argue he will have more suitors than Alonso.
With walkers age he needs to get his bag now.. screw 20 mil or whatever.. now is his time to lock in 3 yrs.. say he gets hurt if he took it. Recovering on the market at 35 no beuno.
Rsox
What is your thought regarding the necessity for the Dbacks to make a three year offer to Walker for around $50M just to ensure Walker gets more than $50M when he signs elsewhere? The purpose would be to ensure Walker gets over $50M so the Dbacks get a Compensation Pick after the First Round rather than a pick before the third round,
I think you only offer that if you are comfortable with him accepting it. Though i could see someone offering 3/$60 he might take 3/$50 to stay where he’s comfortable
Rsox
I agree. I think the Dbacks would like to have him back for 2/3/4 years, but don’t want to get into a bidding war. So on the off-chance he wants to return at a price point the Dbacks are comfortable with, then they have done their due diligence. The Dbacks have a need at 1b, but at some point, a draft pick and Pavin Smith at 1b is preferable.
If the Mets lose all the QO free agents, and therefore collect 3 picks after the 4th round, what happens to those 3 picks if the Mets sign 3 different plays that also signed qualifying offers (eg Soto, Burnes and Adames). Are these 3 new picks protected or will those picks be lost as part of the 6 picks they lose?
The picks the Mets give up are earlier. I believe the first pick they would have to give up is their 2nd rounder then 3rd then 4th.
pivetta is going to regret that
I think pre-QO he could have gotten like 3/45, but that’s going to be tougher to get now that he has the additional compensation attached.
IMO his value couldn’t decrease too much through this season. So take the guaranteed 21MM and then next off-season without a QO attached he probably easily gets a 2/30 or 3/45 deal and he makes out in the end.
But hey, good job by Breslow I guess.
Good points Joe and they make a lot of sense. But I’m thinking that pitching is so tough to find today that Nick will make out okay in spite of the compensation for the QO.
No he’s not… He’s a CAA sports client, they’re not known for asking for unreasonable contracts.
Anyone know what Santander is projected to get? He’s basically Dave Kingman.
Way too many Dave Kingman in today’s game
He’s more Rob Deer.
Watch for the Washington Nationals in free agency. Holes at first base and DH and starting pitching needs as well, could potentially spend big this offseason.
Also, it wouldn’t hurt for Mike Rizzo to find a bullpen arm or two. I think he makes a big move to get Christian Walker to come to DC and/or maybe a chance to land Santander as well.
If not Walker they’ll probably offer Alonso a good sized contract as predicted.
Agree on Pivetta. I think he lands somewhere for 3/40-45 type of thing. He’s 31. If he takes the QO, he has to go back to market. He could decline by 10%, get injured, whatever. This way, I think in his mind, getting 2-3 more years and possibly getting double the overall cash is a much better long term result.
I think the Sox should offer something like 2/30 and see what happens.
I think Zach Eflin is a good comp, he got 3 years and $40 million. Eflin was a younger pitcher, but the market for pitching has gone up in the last two years also.
Pivetta is probably hoping for more than that, otherwise he would have taken the QO.
Pivetta isn’t worth the QO. I guess some idiot out there will give him a 3 year $60 million contract though. Looking at you Perry Menasian.
Agree on not being worth $20 mil per, disagree on 3/60.
Someone will give him 2/34 – 3/44 type of thing. For Pivetta, $35 mil is better then $20 even if it takes him 2 years to earn it, it’s still guaranteed.
I hope he’s gone for good. He is to inconsistent to be counted on.
I personally think that Santander would rake as a Tiger. Was hoping for a Santander/Adames signing plus a SP to slot in between Skubal and Olsen with Mize and maybe Manning in the back. But we’ll see if Illitch loosens up the wallet and actually spends some of that pizza cash!
The Cubs should make offers to 1,2,3,4,5 or 11, but will not entertain any of them.
Best of luck to Teo. He did really well with the Dodgers, hope they resign him
It’s so weird that the QO is just a static amount across the board. Soto getting a $21 million QO when he made over $30 million last year is hilarious. They need to make it like the NFL franchise tag where it’s an increase on salary no matter what the player made the previous season so at least it’s interesting. Offering some players a pay cut is just strange.
Changed – The QO amount is the mean salary of the Top 125 MLB salaries because it’s basically a safety net for players whose market doesn’t develop as well as they anticipated. Guys who accept it are pretty confident they can’t do better on the open market. For someone like Nick to accept a QO, it would have to be at least $32M which would convince the Sox to not offer it.
Only 14 of 144 players who have been offered a QO have accepted it, what does that tell you?
It is the cutoff at which a free agent merits draft pick compensation. Soto clearly exceeds that cutoff. Justin Wilson does not. You prove that a FA is worthy of compensation by offering them the QO.
tff – I have more of a problem with the arbitration year salaries.
A player’s 4th thru 6th years is supposed to be under “team control” which should mean well below market value, but the amount teams are forced to pay especially for the 5th and 6th year is often not team friendly and not much of a bargain.
Mookie got $27M for his last year of arbitration, but he’s now getting only $25.5M per year ….. something is definitely wrong when you make more in an arbitration year than you do under a free agent contract.
People often misunderstand FA contracts, and it leads to an awful lot of confusion on these boards. The Dodgers didn’t sign Betts to a 12 year deal because they expect him to be a great player for 12 years. They signed him to a 12 year deal to spread out the money that they would otherwise owe him over the first six years of the deal.
Players are okay with this because the total dollar value matters more to them than when they receive it. Even deferrals aren’t that big a deal. Teams are okay with this because it keeps their AAV down for luxury tax purposes during the years they are contending. The Dodgers are expensive enough on that basis, even spreading the money out.
But on a one-year deal? The bidding would start at $40M and go north from there. His $27 in that final year of arbitration was a bargain, at most 60% of his free agency value for that season.
I know Fangraphs uses $8M/WAR in their valuation, but if you look at the contracts signed by top free agents and estimate their lifetime production, the true valuation is closer to $12M/WAR. At that rate, a +4 WAR player is worth close to $50M.
tff – I totally agree! Players have a choice of opting for longer deals at a lower AAV to take into account declining years as they approach 40, or shorter deals at higher AAV because those are their “prime” years.
But your Mookie analogy doesn’t take into account the market when he was in his final arbitration year (2020).
At that time the best player on the planet was Mike Trout, he earned an AAV of $35.5M in 2020.
The next highest paid position player that year was Arenado who earned $32.5M.
The only other position player in the Top Ten was Machado at $30M.
So there’s zero chance Mookie on a 1-year deal would have gotten $40M+ for 2020 especially after the huge decline in 2019 (I’ll use WAR for you, it dropped from 10.7 to 7.3 which is a steep decline)
Really it’s a moot point anyway, good free agents don’t settle for 1-year contracts unless they are coming off injury plagued or down seasons.
I agree that it is a moot point, but you simply can’t compare a one year deal to a ten year deal.
Teams might have trouble fitting a $40M AAV into their salary structure, but that’s the only reason that a +4 (let alone +7 WAR player) doesn’t get one.
Check out the top signings from the 2015-2016 free agent class. Have to go back that far so that the deals have all expired.
Price: $217M = 11.5 WAR
Greinke $206.5M = 18.6 WAR
Heyward $184M = 9.4 WAR
Davis $161M = (-3.3) WAR
Upton $132.75M = +8.8 WAR
Cueto $130M = +8.3 WAR
Zimmerman $110M = +5 WAR
The Greinke deal at $11M/WAR was the *only* one of those seven contracts that was cheaper than $12M/WAR. If a team is willing to pay $130M for +8 to +9 WAR (the Upton and Cueto contracts were two of the better ones on this list), why wouldn’t they be willing to pay $40M for +4 WAR on a no-risk one year deal?
tff – I agree with you! All I’m saying is Mookie’s 2020 Arb salary of $27M was ridiculously high for a “team controlled” salary when there was only THREE position players making at least $30M, and no position player making more than $35.5M.
The whole purpose of delaying free agency for 6 years is to allow their team to have the player at an affordable price for 6 years. If forced to pay them nearly as much as the highest paid players in the game, that causes the team to trade them which is unfortunate. Hopefully a team like the Pirates won’t be trading Skenes because they can’t afford his arbitration years!
The final year of arbitration can be close to the FA valuation (or even above in some cases), so it isn’t really a promise of six cheap years. I just don’t think Betts is a good example.
The Twins cut Ortiz because they didn’t feel he was worth an arbitration salary.
tff – Because great pitchers are scarcer than great position players.
That’s why of the Top Ten paid players in 2020, only 3 of them were position players ;O)
Look how much Scherzer at Age 37-39 and Verlander at Age 40-41 got paid …. how many position players have been paid that much at those ages?
The aging curve for pitchers is different from hitters. But while Cueto is a pitcher, Justin Upton wasn’t. Nor Heyward.
You tend to see longer deals for position players, shorter/fatter deals for ace pitchers. The top ten contracts by total value are all for hitters (if you consider Ohtani primarily a hitter).
Pivetta to me was one that I think should have taking the bet on himself not to accept the QO. The QO makes him less valuable and his projected market is something like 3 years $40 mil. This QO gets him half way towards his projected money, his history suggested he’s likely going to have at a minimum another year much like he just had. So take out an insurance policy on yourself, go pitch and make half of what is expected, and worst case scenario i betcha you’ll be able to sign for $10 over the next two season after that (even if he gets injured I bet he can come back and make this money), but best case, you get you another actual 3 year deal in the $40 mil range and now he just made $60+ just by banking on himself
braves – Agree with all that, but he’s not betting on himself. He has already received offers, he knows he can get at least $15M more in guaranteed money. There’s no risk involved.
If he had accepted the QO, then he’d be betting that he doesn’t have a bad season or sustain a serious injury … and keep in mind he went on the IL early this year with an elbow strain.
Total surprise. Thought Soto would have accepted for the job security. Tough job market out there unless you’re a pimp