The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.
There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.
Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.
As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.
Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.
Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per
Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.
Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
How will it look in 2025? PRETTY GOOD
kellin
is that your tldr/cliff notes version of this article?
afsooner02
I think it’ll look green….couple of white lines on the sides….some dirt and a wall…..
Warden of the North(acoss13)
Santander mashing in a Mariners uniform next year would boost the offense. Not sure if he’d be too pricey though.
Very Barry
42 years since the Orioles last went to the World Series. Everybody else in the AL East has a ring. Everybody in the AL Cental has a ring. The Washington Nationals moved from Montreal in 2005 …. Yup, they got a ring! Whew!
Last Baltimore Oriole MVP was Cal Ripken …. Let that sink in! ….
cr4
By no means an expert but I’d really love to see Coby Mayo be able to find a spot in the outfield. So that way Basallo once ready could go to 1st/DH regularly
Old York
Looks like it will be:
Colton Cowser
Cedric Mullins
Teoscar Hernández
C Yards Jeff
Cowser, Mullins, Soto. Kjerstad #4 with Bradfield and Beavers getting a look see.
Old York
@C Yards Jeff
But… but… I thought the Mets are signing Soto to $1B?
Are the O’s going to pay him $1.1B?
C Yards Jeff
I feel ya Old York. Here’s my angle. After a 101 win season, the Orioles were onky 19th in home attendance this year. And they didn’t sell out either playoff game. 4000+/- seats short game 1 and 9k game 2. Owners call here. Bring in the proven young star power position player to get fannys in seats.
jbigz12
Soto’s contract won’t be paid for with a couple thousand tickets. Weather was garbage on Tuesday & the games started at 4 on a weekday. If that’s a FRI/SAT game it’s a different story.
Soto will be wearing someone else’s uni next year.
bigdaddyt
Hopefully Santander will be patrolling a corner/DH role for their bird rivals come spring
Butter Biscuits
Mullins should be a trade candidate his splits against lhp makes it questionable for him to get 9 mil from the orioles other teams with higher payrolls would be open to pay for that.
Karensjer
Red flag to whomever signs Santander, he’s going to get popped for roids next year.
Arnoldpsufan
Ķarensjer, you know something we don’t?
SewaldSwansonSwoon
Stupid Karen comment.
King Floch
lol no
kevnames42
Would love to see Santander as the Yankees 1B next year
YankeesBleacherCreature
I’m gonna take a pass on him. He profiles like another Stanton with less batted exit velocity and will require a pricey, long-term commitment. I’d rather give a short-term Goldschmidt a shot to rebound.
Warden of the North(acoss13)
Or if Goldschmidt isn’t an option, you still have DJ to man 1B!
I kid but you know that’s Cashman’s plan in the offseason…
YankeesBleacherCreature
Don’t give Hal any ideas because a $300MM payroll isn’t sustainable for him and the second richest franchise in pro sports.
cooperhill
Pass on O’Hearn,or keep him OUT of the OF.
mrmackey
I would think he’d have some decent trade value at 8 million on a one year deal. So even if they don’t have a spot for him, I think they’d exercise the option and trade him.
sultan of swat
Hoping Kjerstad has a year two like Cowser did.
cooperhill
Cept for the final at bat!
brianjohnso1
Are you talking about the pinch hit at bat with 2 outs in the 9th inning against Lucas Erceg? His first at bat of the game? Dude, Lucas Erceg strikeout Juan Soto and Aaron Judge back-to-back on Saturday night in the 8th inning and those were their fifth at bats of the game. And both of those guys are Top-5 hitters in MLB with tons of postseason experience. Kjerstad’s at bat against Erceg was the first one of his career. LOL.
brianjohnso1
Kjerstad is a significantly better hitter than Cowser and will have a significantly better year two than him if given the same amount of playing time. Even despite being up and down and inconsistent at bats, Kjerstad managed to produce a .351 OBP in 2024, which would rank 25th in MLB amongst Qualified Hitters. And he hits lefties A LOT better than Cowser. Kjerstad hit .375 against vs LHP in 2024 (18 PA). And remember, the one time he got to play regularly, he posted a 1.147 OPS from 6/23 – 7/12 before going on the I.L. with a concussion.
Ben K
Where does Santander sign next year I wonder…
Would be happy for the Mets to add him as an OF/DH.
Rsox
If the season started today it would be Kjerstad/Mullins/Cowser.
I don’t see the Orioles paying for Soto when starting pitching needs to be top priority and Burnes is going to be expensive if they try to keep him
SewaldSwansonSwoon
Why does SP rank over their abysmal 2nd half offense?
King Floch
I’m fine with handing RF to Kjerstad after Santander departs in free agency, but I definitely would like to add a RHB that hits lefties well and can play a solid CF to platoon with Mullins.
Harrison Bader maybe?
brianjohnso1
Totally agree. Plant Kjerstad in RF every day and let him bloom. A RHB that can play a solid CF is a must-add for the Orioles. Somebody better than Austin Hays, but I wouldn’t rule out a reunion if he is non-tendered by the Phillies and the Orioles can get him for a cheap price (e.g., $5M)..
Neither Mullins or Cowser hit lefties well. Bader is a good call.
Can we please get a DH?
O’s could go with a very cheap lineup next year:
C – Rutschmann, 1B – Mayo, 2B – Holiday, 3B – Westburg, SS – Henderson, OF – Cowser, Hjerstad and Mullins, DH – Basallo
It will be interesting to see which, if any, of Santander ($20M+), Mateo ($3.2M), Urias ($3.1M), O’Hearn ($8M) and Mountcastle ($6.6M) they bring back as individually each is rather expensive for a non prominent role on a low budget team.
King Floch
I’m not sure we’re going to be a “low budget team” going forward though- the new ownership has indicated that payroll is going to increase meaningfully from the (thankfully over) John Angelos era, and we got up to around $160-170 million during our last competitive window in the 2010s, which put us in the 10-15th highest payroll range IIRC.
That said, I would look into trading Mountcastle (Pirates or Mariners maybe?) for a couple of pitching prospects that our scouts like and reallocating his arb money towards something else, like a solid platoon partner for Mullins in CF. It would probably be a better use of finite resources and it opens an everyday spot in the lineup for Mayo or a FA bat if there’s someone out there that they really like- Santander, Alonso, Hernandez, Walker, etc.
Can we please get a DH?
As a Mariner’s fan, I’d love to see Mountcastle come in to be the weak side 1B platoon partner for Raley. Maybe an offer around Emerson Hancock or Michael Morales could make sense?
I’d also love to see the O’s spend and really make themselves full blooded contenders. If they went to $150M again, they could easily keep Burnes. However, the fact that they weren’t in the Snell bidding last year makes me skeptical.
hiflew
I think they would be smart to “give” the job to Kjerstad while picking up a veteran 4th OF that could be good enough to work as a decent starter in case Kjerstad fails or humble enough to be a bench outfielder in case he does not. Something like the Rockies did with Jake Cave in 2024. Never going to be a star, but is reliable enough to give you quality ABs and good defense while keeping the seat warm for someone younger. Not sure exactly who would be available to fill that role, but there are always 5-10 guys that available even at the end of spring.
brianjohnso1
I am guessing ….
Santander – receives & rejects Qualified Offer, signs FA deal elsewhere.
Mateo – likely back was a super utility guy with more focus on CF/LF.
Urias – 100% back
O’Hearn – club option picked up, but possibly traded before opening day and replaced by a veteran LHH 1B/DH.
Mountcastle – tendered, but likely traded before opening day and replaced by Mayo.
Thornton Mellon
Santander had a great year at the right time. Another team is going to overpay for him. I don’t see it likely that he will be back.
That leaves Kjerstad to pick up the open position, along with Mullins and Cowser as starting OF.
I think Mayo gets a shot, and either (but not both) Mountcastle and O’Hearn are trade options (O’Hearn a sign-and-trade, Mountcastle tendered). O’Hearn was the better player this year, but Mountcastle continues to be seen as having a higher ceiling. They hedge way too much to let both go.
The DH will be a hodgepodge: O’Hearn/Mountcastle, Adley, Kjerstad, etc. I think a 4th OF who is good against lefties to work into this along with the DH mix too. But not a roster spot occupier. Someone productive who can hit at least solidly league average. Either OF prospect in the minors is probably a year away at least.
Of course Holliday/Westburg/Henderson/Mayo – will be interesting to see if any move after Henderson got the bobbles in the 2nd half. Urias is the UIF, both defensively versatile and can actually hit. Mateo is a non-tender.
I don’t think Basallo gets a look until at least late 2026.
Interested to see what the new ownership group allows once things get going in the offseason.