As the 22 teams that aren’t currently focused on capturing the 2024 World Series title gear up for the coming offseason, many will surely be keeping an eye on the number of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the consensus top arms. It’s a class that’s not entirely dissimilar from last winter’s group of top arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.
Those top free agent arms garnered a combined guarantee of more than $600MM last winter, and the results were generally commensurate with that production. While Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a fairly typical season by his standards with the Phillies this year (albeit with slightly diminished peripherals) and both Snell and Yamamoto fought through injury woes to dominate as expected when healthy. That said, a starter who was looked at more as a mid-rotation type of arm last winter surprised the baseball world by emerging with numbers comparable to those at the very top of the class.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was generally looked at as a tier below the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray. In spite of rumors that Imanaga’s market could top $100MM when all was said and done, the southpaw lingered in free agency into the new year before eventually signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far below expectations. While the deal maxes out at five years and $80MM, just a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over five years, the deal came with a complex structure that only guaranteed Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM total figure.
It’s not hard to see why teams were seemingly bearish on Imanaga. After all, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball at an age that’s roughly in line with a typical MLB free agent rather than the younger age many NPB players such as Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their way to the majors at. Yamamoto was marketing his age-25 season last year, while Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With many of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the risk of providing a hefty sum to a player with no MLB experience without much of the perceived upside that would come with signing a player in their mid-20s.
Even aside from Imanaga’s age, it’s also worth noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew significant questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw especially hard, having averaged just 91.9mph on his heater this year, and some scouting reports (including one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions about his ability to manage home runs at the big league level due to his fly ball-oriented profile. While Imanaga’s deep pitch mix and high-end stuff metrics offered reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, the lefty nevertheless entered his first MLB season with plenty of questions surrounding him.
Fortunately for both Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered those questions in resounding fashion with an excellent rookie campaign. Overall, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% better than league average by ERA+) with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate that was 16th-best among qualified starters this year. He paired that strikeout stuff with excellent control, walking just 4% of opponents faced this year. That’s a figure topped by only George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin among all big leaguers this year and leaves him with a fantastic 21% K-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.
That being said, not everything about Imanaga’s 2024 performance was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is rather pedestrian (just 6% better than league average by FIP-) and more advanced metrics such as xERA and SIERA, while more bullish than FIP on his performance, nonetheless see him as more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the 2.91 figure he actually posted this year. The main culprit for that discrepancy between results and metrics is the very same weakness that drew some skepticism last winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 home runs this year, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most among all qualified starters in 2024.
While that’s certainly not a completely untenable figure, it would certainly be fair to wonder if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into next season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered more homers than Imanaga this year, none came close to his sterling ERA with only Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an figure that was even within a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty home run rate and an above-average 80.2% strand rate this year, it would hardly be a surprise if the emergent ace put up numbers closer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time last year come 2025.
Of course, even a step back that aligns Imanaga’s performance more closely with his advanced metrics would leave the Cubs with an excellent #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they should have no concerns about starting in a hypothetical playoff series. Barring dramatic regression on the part of Imanaga next year, it seems very likely that the Cubs will guarantee the lefty the full $80MM value of his contract rather than risk him opting out following the 2025 campaign, which he would be able to do if the Cubs decline to guarantee the full contract.
Bucket Number Six
Shota did well. Hope he can keep the ball on the park next year to get that option picked up.
DarkSide830
Funny way to say “Reynaldo López”
Goose
Lopez had a good year but was 40+ innings behind. I wonder if he will be a late bloomer? He always had the tools but just couldn’t put it together.
Devlsh
I would easily give this one to Reynaldo Lopez. Sure, there’s an innings difference, but a 137 ERA+ compared to a 208 ERA+???
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
If Reynaldo made 30 starts and 150 innings pitched I’d give it to him but he was basically a platooned pitcher where he would never face batters for a 3rd time
Blackpink in the area
FIP says he’s more like a good number 3 than an ace.
PronounsRUS
Get a life blacky pink
SalaryCapMyth
Did you lose your brain in customs traveling somewhere? Blackpink is right. In addition to FIP, xFIP, SIERRA and BABIP all agree that Imanaga’s performance this year was really more like a no 3. Maybe he has potential but ace is bullish at this point.
pt57
Plus, offense was down at Wrigley last year.
SoCalBrave
Not to brag, but I said that Imanaga was going to have a better year than Yamamoto when he signed with the Cubs.
Admittedly, it was mostly because I figured Yamamoto was going to struggle and get hurt, while Shota would be a serviceable #2/#3 in the Cubs rotation.
Needless to say, Yamamoto pitched pretty good, but got hurt and Imanaga was just outstanding
PronounsRUS
Black pink Joel king of cards tard. Dead fiancé
letitbelowenstein
By all rights, Eduardo Rodriguez should have significantly over 100 wins and 1,500 K’s by now. A strange career.
johnsilver
He’s always been his own worst enemy letit. 1st few seasons, when he had mid 90’s velocity? His knee, every season would become dislocated until finally getting it fixed for good and then, after having the outstanding ’19? he came down with a severe heart issue, which believe may have been related to covid?
His velo is several ticks below what it once was and his command/control was never what one would say all that great, then he opted out of the Tigers contract.. wasn’t sad to see Boston allow him to walk in the 1st place and AZ giving him 80m was a massive overpay. the money they are throwing away on him and Montgomery could have gone a LONG way towards locking up the TRUE Ace they do have in Zac Gallen.
Citizen1
Not surprising on Yamamoto. League hasn’t seen him. There was another pitcher – went 16-5 with a 3.06 era from 2023. Regressed to 5-5 due to injuries. Era still there but…That’s Justin Steele.
So these so called “top of the class “ Montgomery and your Blake snells regress. Neither signing team made it to the playoffs.
barrybonds1994
“That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga… After all, the 30-year-old righty was coming over from…”
Didn’t know he was a switch pitcher?
Ronk325
The title of ace gets thrown around way too loosely these days
PronounsRUS
Nick is a Cubs fan. Of course he’s going to call him an ace.
rondon
Ridiculous. You just don’t wanna see anything good written about the Cubs.
warnbeeb
I said last off season (not that anyone cared or even paid attention) that the Tigers made a huge mistake not singing this guy instead of Kenta Maeda.
DroppedThirdStrike
Zaidi would still have his job if he’d signed him.
Longtimecoming
His primary stats say ace even if it’s year 1 and maybe a guy needs a few years to “earn” the title. Alternatively, maybe he is considered the ace of the Cubs staff because he was their bets pitcher.
In SD, Michael King has been called “the ace of the staff” and it’s his first year of full time starting and well, his stats could be said to be “ace” stuff.
Hard to see either King or Imanaga not being in the top 10 in NL CY voting – with King likely in top 5. So, what is an “ace” might be the better discussion.
Is longevity required? Is it being the best on your staff? What about being the “stopper” when a team needs a win (15-3 for Imanaga suggests he does that.
Not really trying to win an argument but pointing out that each side might consider looking at it differently.