The Cubs missed the postseason for the fourth consecutive season. Chicago finished 83-79 for a second straight year. That’s a frustrating outcome in a down NL Central — especially since Chicago added around $30MM to its Opening Day payroll relative to 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Owner Tom Ricketts spoke with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune about the team’s payroll outlook. Ricketts confirmed that the Cubs narrowly exceeded the $237MM base competitive balance tax threshold — as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested they would in August. Like most owners, Ricketts didn’t provide a clear answer as to whether he’d be willing to pay the tax for a second straight year.
“The penalties on CBT, they grow over time and so you want to be careful when you do it,” Ricketts said. “And so if there’s ever some point in the future where there’s a large financial commitment you want to make midseason, you have to be thoughtful about it.” Ricketts is referencing the escalating penalties for teams that pay the tax in consecutive seasons. The Cubs stayed below the CBT threshold in 2023, so they’re first-time payors this year. That’ll subject them to a 20% tax on their first $20MM in overages. Cot’s estimates that they were only about $300K over the line, so the actual tax payment (roughly $55K) is more or less a rounding error for an MLB team.
Paying at all means the Cubs would be taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages if they surpass the threshold next season. That jumps to 42% for the next $20MM and comes with higher penalties (75% and 90%) for the respective $20MM after that. The penalties would increase if the Cubs paid the tax for a third straight year.
The CBT also includes higher penalties for teams that lose or add a free agent who declined a qualifying offer. The Cubs don’t have any impending free agents who’ll get a QO. If they signed a qualified free agent, they’d forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM. Cot’s projects the Cubs around $150MM in CBT obligations. That assumes Cody Bellinger will not opt out of the final two seasons on his contract but does not include arbitration projections. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the entire arbitration class to cost around $33MM if they were all tendered contracts. Moving on from some or all of Patrick Wisdom, Yency Almonte, Christian Bethancourt, Julian Merryweather, Nick Madrigal, Trey Wingenter, Jimmy Herget and Colten Brewer could knock that down to the $20MM range.
That’d leave approximately $70MM before the lowest threshold, so there’s a lot of payroll room before the tax becomes a concern. Ricketts’ note about the potential for midseason acquisitions could point to a preference to stay below the tax line during the offseason. A team’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season. Salary acquired in midseason pickups counts on a prorated basis in the calculation.
Allocating those resources will be at Hoyer’s discretion. The front office leader is entering the final season of the five-year extension that he signed in 2020. Chicago is still seeking its first playoff appearance since Theo Epstein turned the reins to Hoyer after the ’20 season.
It’s relatively common for teams to sign executives and coaches to extensions before the final year of their deal, thereby preventing from operating in a lame duck situation. Ricketts sidestepped a question regarding a potential Hoyer extension. “He’s under contract, that’s the way I see it,” the owner told Montemurro. “I think he’s motivated. … I think Jed’s going to have a great offseason and put us back in the playoffs next year.”
Moving on from some or all of Patrick Wisdom, Yency Almonte, Christian Bethancourt, Julian Merryweather, Nick Madrigal, Trey Wingenter, Jimmy Herget and Colten Brewer could knock that down to the $20MM range.
Maybe Almonte or Merryweather depending on their health. Hoping a better catcher than Bethancourt. Please keep none of the rest.
Almonte should absolutely be tendered. Merriweather is such an injury risk that they may just move on. Shame he never holds up.
Nick Madrigal isn’t even good enough to make the White Sox.
Padres! Lol!
Exceeding the threshold by $300k is just bad management. There are no “ya but’s” that excuse it. Hoyer is an unimaginative, overmatched clerk.
Ouch!
DonOsbourne;
Maybe.
Or it could be an inexpensive way to provide a built-in future excuse to keep the payroll in a range…..
“We’d really like to be flexible enough to take on a few salaries, but the tax considerations constrain what we can do.”
I’m not a Hoyer/Ricketts fan but seriously, a Cardinal fan talking about “mismanagement”? ok.
He clearly should have consulted with Arte Moreno and Perry Minasian.
I’m never in the fire Jed Hoyer camp, but exceeding the threshold by so little is a fireable offense for a non playoff team.
It’s so irrelevant that it shouldn’t even warrant a gentle scolding.
Irrelevant? So now they begin 2025 in year 2 of penalties if they exceed the threshold again. The non financial penalties are very stiff. Couldn’t be more relevant.
The $300k feels like they had a deadline deal to unload someone and then it fell through.
Brick—I’m pretty sure that it was the impetus of the reports of Smyly going on waivers at the end of August. I’m not going to dive deep into the math but if anyone would have paid the prorated rate for the last month, I’m guessing the Cubs would have ducked back under.
Cubs were a huge disappointment in 2024. With that kind of payroll playing in a weak division they should have won more games.
I mentioned this the other day their top 6 prospects are all due to be ready in 2025. They are going to have to make room for them or trade them for help.
I would not say a huge disappointment, I really only saw that team as built to win maybe 85 games. I thought the Brewers, Reds and Cubs would all be about even and the Cards further back. Brewers did a great job.
They have a 230 million dollar payroll playing in a weak division. That should have been 90 wins easy.
I am looking it from the perspective of what prognosticators thought as of opening day compared to the results.
Most people thought the Cubs were hands down the best team in the division before the season started. Heck I am a Cardinals fan and I thought the Cubs were clearly the best team in the division.
Until the injuries, I thought the Reds were the team to beat. Even the prognosticators who picked the. In’s we’re saying 85 or 86 wins.
The Cubs were as expected just Brewers were better than expected, as were Cards.
Nobody thought the Cubs would only win 83 games. Nobody. The Cubs were a big disappointment their payroll is much larger than any team in the division. They don’t have a bunch of bloated contracts on the books. They made a good trade getting Busch and signing Imanaga was a good decision. No excuses they were a big let down.
26 blown saves, and a 2+ month stretch of an anemic offense was too much for them to overcome.
Yeah from what I saw it looks like a better bullpen would have made a huge difference.
I think most people had em pegged around 86 wins. A fringe WC contender.
Milwaukee was my pickm. I’m not sure who picked the Cubs. There seriously wasn’t TOO much competition going in. Cards looked like they stemmed off stuff adding pitching. Division looked like I thought it would.
Not to mention kicking Ross to curb(your beloved game 7 homering backup Catcher turned manager)for Counsell and the massive 40million you paid him to be the same guy. Too stubborn to play youngsters, (Canario/Vazquez). If for no other reason, than to give guys a 2 days off. 1 on and 1 off the schedule.
I also think he was more like Ross was in 23’ than he had been in all
His previous years combined. There were plenty of opportunities to “piggyback” these guys who can’t hack it as a starter. Whether that be yet(HWez,CKillian), or anymore,(Smyly,Hendricks)3/4 innings from each of these guys(5 if they’re on one of the 3-5 days of the year where they’re going great, which is up to the manager to see and feel those days. You can see it. It’s your job to see it. I also think part of the managerial job is to get your team to peak at the end. You have multiple peaks, and/or mini-peaks, but the talent is there. Health-wise? We need to be stronger. Bring in Arrieta and have him make these guys stronger, yet more
agile. Talking to you S. Suzuki.
The Chicago Tribune quoted Ricketts stating that the ’24 season was his most difficult season to endure while missing the playoffs. It sounds like Hoyer is in the hot seat and won’t be extended until after next season if the Cubs decide to keep him. My take is he wants Hoyer to stay under $241MM for ’25 bc he thinks they should make the postseason while having the ability to outspend all teams in the NL Central.
Ricketts spouted the same BS last offseason. The truth is, he refuses to compete with a large market payroll like the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets do. He refuses to substantially exceed the luxury tax for that high WAR difference maker that lineup desperately needs or an established closer that wouldn’t have blown 17 saves. Yes, Hoyer should’ve gotten more return from the team that he’s paid for, (that’s another conversation), and maybe a kid or two will make that leap from the farm, but that’s just speculation and not really a plan. The difference a “Soto” would’ve made for them this past season would’ve been significant,. but they don’t aggressively pursue those kinds of moves. And that’s how you repeat the same mediocre record two years in a row. With the same mediocre plan.
The truth is, he refuses to compete with a large market payroll like the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets do.
==========================
What’s your point? That NY and LA are bigger markets?
What? No. They are a large market team that doesn’t spend like the others.
No, his point is that the Cubs ARE just as much of a big-market team as the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets, yet they refuse to spend like that and instead insist on spending like a small-market team!
The cubs are set up pretty decently. They need to build out the back out of the bullpen and make some moves around the margins but wouldn’t surprise me to see them win the division next year.
I predict Paredes will be a flop though. Bigge will be the best ML’er in that trade from the time of the trade onward. Cubs have infield prospects on the way though.
It’s hard to think the cubs have that high of a payroll but not many star caliber players
But that’s what happens when belly and Swanson and shota have big contracts
I wouldn’t consider Shota’s contract to be big. He was paid less money than Jameson Taillon. And after the year he had where he might finish top 5-7 in Cy Young and even higher in ROY I think the Cubs are pretty happy to have the affordable options to pick up assuming he can continue to pitch at this level.
Shota made less than $10MM and was a deserving All-Star this season. He’s not a Cubs problem.
I wasn’t saying they’re problems I was saying they weren’t superstars
But above average quality players? Absolutely
I’ve really liked Craig Counsell as a manager. Think he’s one of the best in MLB.
He went from a Brewer organization that played in a small market, to Chicago’s most popular baseball team. Chicago being the 2nd or 3rd largest market in the US, so that even with an owner holding payroll down had almost double the payroll of the Brewers this season…..who went to the playoffs.
The Brewers have a smart front office, even with David Stearns leaving for the Mets. They have approach’s and systems in place to value potential players and to develop many when they acquire them. Hoyer has been the primary baseball guy with the Cubs for 13-14 years. Their approaches and systems are more in line with what a Mark Shapiro does – try this a little bit of something. When it comes up short try whatever the new fad is to buy another 2-4 years.
Mr. Counsell walked into a situation that is not a good one for him. Whether it’s the owner, the GM or both, he’s going to be limited in what he can do. All the people on here that have been bad-rapping him this year are mistaken. He’s a high-quality ML manager that is hardly in a high-quality organization. When Chaim takes over perhaps Craig will head south.
10 million a season. Go find 7 more wins.
Hoyer has made a career of riding Epsteins coattails which his lack of solo success tells you all you need to know. Maybe Ricketts can stop buying up the neighborhood and turn his full attention back to the Chicago Cubs and hire capable front office people. I realize it’s a business, but the bottom line has become more important than wins and losses to Tom.
Tom, you’re printing money @ Wrigley. Pay the tax and tell Hoyer to be more aggressive. There is absolutely no reason for the Cubs not to be serious bidders for Juan Soto. But no, that’s not gonna happen. They are all complacent. Their bellies are full. And so are the coffers.
They don’t even need Soto, they need an elite closer and an all-star catcher. And some pitching depth.
Agreed, absolutely NO need to sign Soto with the glut of OFers the Cubs currently have under contract – and Caissie on the doorstep.
Cubs need a #1 or #2, Starting Pitcher – and one more very reliable reliever. And they have budget space to accommodate those acquisitions. And then sign one more reliable P just for good measure. I don’t care if it’s a SP or RP.
Any ‘bats’ the Cubs need, should first be auditioned from their Minor league system.
You don’t spend like crazy, IF YOUR goal is, sustainable success.
They have a glut of outfielders, but no one in the that WAR range. They have plenty of ‘complementary’ bats but no killer. Yep, they need a #1 starter and a closer, but they need a stud bat in that lineup that’s not just a flavor of the month.
Rondon, you are so dead on!!!
Those complementary bats are exactly what they had in 2016–but the difference now is that there is no Kris Bryant nor Anthony Rizzo.
Zobrist, Fowler, Baez, Russell, etc is Happ, Seiya, Hoerner, Dansby. All very, very good–well above average bats.
In terms of wants and need, in a make believe we can spend someone else’s money it has to be:
1. Juan Soto
2. Pete Alonso
3. One of the above
4. If none of the above, hope 83-85 wins gets you in the playoffs.
Can not, will not be serious, serious contenders when you don’t have a guy on the team that hits more than 25 homers (or at least has the threat to).
Get a superstar—look at the four teams left. And yes—Cleveland has Jose Ramirez.
“You don’t spend like crazy, IF YOUR goal is, sustainable success”
Tell that to the Dodgers and Yankees, who have made the playoffs pretty much every single year for ages and constantly snap up basically ALL the best players with astronomical offers.
Heck, might as well add Vlady to that list too!
“Tell that to the Dodgers and Yankees”.
LOL. Guess what – in the last 20 years, your Dodgers and Yankees have won exactly ONE World Series.
You know who else has won one World Series in that span? The ‘high spending’ White Sox and K C Royals.
Spending helps – only when it’s spent smartly. Good fortune plays a bigger hand then the amount of money spent.
Comon Mike!
Really? Dansby and Hoerner, Happ (and Javy and Russell) – being very good-well above average bats.
And Bellinger sure had a huge year in 2023, and a few others you named had better offensive years in 2023 – and the Cubs had the same number of wins.
It’s Pitching – Pitching – and Pitching.
I’m not exactly sure where that guy is coming up with that 70 million WITH Bellinger is completely accurate. I could go with all those non tenders with them trying to re sign Bethancourt and Wingenter but the rest should already be gone. If that’s true, Then they have more than enough money to get Burnes and a Closer and a bench. Even considering using some of their own farm system for that. If Shaw is up to the task maybe trade Nico at the deadline if you need something anyway they can get creative there. Actually one thing Hoyer had been pretty good at is finding decent rebound Closers and flipping them. How about finding one and KEEPING him? They cannot go into another season counting on a Rookie Closer after 1 good month. They need a veteran guy if for nothing else to maybe show him the way. And they need another LH bullpen guy to go with Little until their own move up. LH bullpen guy is probably the easiest and cheapest deadline thing you can find. Tanner Scott could fill 2 holes with one signing. Aliendo and Ballesteros should be catching in Iowa. if Ballesteros makes some mind blowing leap and makes it to Wrigley Bethancourt would make a solid 3rd option at a fairly cheap price, At least compared to that death knell list of FA C’s I saw. Tim Dierkes said that it was really stupid to go over the Tax by 300,000. That’s completely true. Not sure why Hoyer felt the need to do that but it was really dumb. So now he needs to stay under this year. 70 million? I hope that’s true but IDK.
“The penalties on CBT, they grow over time and so you want to be careful when you do it,” Ricketts said.
—-
Or, you’re the owner of a major market team and you opt to pay the penalty.
Pretty much a very, very bad headline to the article.
“Ricketts discusses Hoyer”…… then in the very LAST sentence of the article we get the dreaded “…” indicating we have no idea what he really discussed about Hoyer.
I already know he’s under contract and wants to make the playoffs.
Please, what did he discuss?
He’s babbling just like Hoyer- Who would not get that last year in Philly, NY or LA- where actual results matter.
I can’t stand listening to these big market owners complain about the luxury tax when they could drop their pants at it. Exorbitantly rich franchises that act broke.
Hoyer is the gm. Is president of baseball operations now the gm and the actual gm does the paperwork? Something that started with Theo Epstein? Hoyer isn’t a good judge of talent. Cubs were expected compete. Probably Craig counsel evaluating talent. Wait til next year
Someone ring? Miss me do ya?
If rickets needs to expand wrigleyville into a further diznee land, rickets will post a comment on mlbtr
Madrigal and Mastrabuoni belong on someome else’s single A team. If Rickets had ANY desire to win, Hoyer and Counsell would have both been gone already. Rickets is in this to make money, NOTHING ELSE and the Cubs fans yould show up for a 40 and 120 team. The Cubs won’t win for a long time and Rickets my write a good letter but winning will not be a priority. Your proof is that Hoyer is still here.
Counsel is on a $25 million contract. Ain’t gonna be cut. Cubs owners have no desire to field a winning team since wrigley field is already a cash cow.
Hawkins has to get permission to refill the toilet paper holder in his bathroom. Then he has to raise his hand to go to the bathroom. He has as much authority in that building as I do.
The Cubs are one of the worse run franchises in MLB. Can you imagine what some of these small market teams would do with Chicagos resources!
Brewers say hi
Marlins are worser, constantly fielding an aaa team
Dumb
But but Pottersville, er Biff Tannens pleasure palace casino, er Ricketsville sure looks schmancey
I think Bethancourt should be tendered. Then you have 3 catchers who have all played 1st base at some point in the last few years. You trade Busch to smaller market. Or to a team full of payroll constraints, and let Belli play first. These guys can backup, if Belli has to play OF, or DH’s, or is off. And Ballesteros’ bat is one of best strokes I’ve ever seen. He will hit enough to be a DH in MLB. And be an alll-star DH.
So backup 1b and 3rd C next year is worth it. Also, some guys just play better in certain cities with certain teams. Bethancourt has been through more trials and whatnot than
the avg. ball player. If he can learn
His staff a little better, and frame better, he should give Miggy 2/3
Days off a week. Or 40/35/25. Miggy is way better when rested. When he’s tired, he does a whole, WHOLE LOT of, (1st pitch-
back-shoulder dropping, and throwing the end of the bat head at pitch down and away for a lazy pop-up. I bet he did it twice as much as the next guy on the team. When he was on for that stretch, he was on. But he. and play 6 days a week. 3/4 C and some
1B sprinkled in. Plus the options with 3 catchers? You have someone to catch the endings of Blowouts? and Balllesteos and is ready to hit big league pitching. His hit tool is the best tool in our system.
Come back in 7-10 years and tell me how right I am.