The Red Sox are nearing a deal to hire Taylor Smith for an unspecified analytics-based role in the club’s front office, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo. Smith could be joining the ranks as an assistant general manager, which would presumably also come with some type of VP title like Boston’s other four assistant GMs under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
Smith had been working with the Rays as Tampa Bay’s director of predictive modeling. He has been with the organization since graduating from the University of Georgia in 2018, and Smith was initially hired as an analyst in Tampa’s research and development team. He’ll now head to a larger role in Boston, becoming the latest in a seemingly endless line of Rays staffers hired by other teams to try and learn from Tampa Bay’s consistent success in player development.
As McAdam wrote in another piece earlier this week, assistant GM Mike Groopman had been considered the “de facto overseer” of Boston’s analytics operations, but Groopman was being shifted into another role “with more of a focus on player acquisition.” It would seem that Smith will now be filling the gap left behind by Groopman’s role change, and it remains to be seen some more shuffling could be on the way.
Paul Toboni, another assistant GM, has been rumored to be the top in-house name to become Breslow’s official top lieutenant as Boston’s general manager, so if Toboni is promoted, the Red Sox would still have four AGMs (Smith, Groopman, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero) in place. McAdam suggests that promoting Toboni might also be a way of keeping him within the organization, and away from GM vacancies with the Giants and Mets. There are some links between Toboni and other those jobs, as McAdam writes that Toboni is from the Bay Area, and he previously worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in the Brewers’ front office.
Good luck Boston. Nothing good comes from hiring Rays analytics unless the team is willing to spend the money like the Dodgers. This usually means teams are looking for cheaper production so owners don’t have to pay up. I know that feeling every season.
Rays – So true! With the Red Sox publicly stating they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026, they are relying on Rays employees to keep them within shouting distance of a Wildcard.
Nowhere has anyone associated with the Sox stated that.
ken – No matter how many times you lie about this, real Sox fans who watched the NESN interviews with Kennedy saying it know you are lying.
Their approach is to have a roster full of team-controlled salaried players, which is certainly possible with CMAT and their current core of young players … not much different than what Baltimore, Milwaukee and Cleveland have going on.
Having so many low-paid team controlled players allows them to allocate resources towards any particular remaining needs, either by signing free agents or trading prospects.
It’s a logical approach ONLY if CMAT becomes what they are projected to be, and ONLY if everything else falls into place. So if everything breaks right, the fans get the winning team they crave and ownership gets the larger net profits they crave.
But in the meantime, ownership focuses on the financials while the fanbase suffers.
Post a link to ONE interview with Sam Kennedy where he says the team isn’t planning to contend until 2026. I dare you.
ken – Your Twitter-length posts are getting really, really boring. I know you probably live on social media, but you think just once you can post something of substance rather than just one or two sentences where you lie and play your childish games?
I already stated it was during NESN broadcasts, pregame show to be specific. I don’t believe they get archived anywhere. And knowing your reputation, you’ll probably just insist that everything he said doesn’t mean not planning to contend. In fact you’d also probably insist he was planning to contend at the trade deadline. So in other words, no matter what I provide it would be a waste of time. Pretty much like responding to your posts.
So that was basically a long winded post to say this is all just your opinion of things and not any actual stated policy of the team whatsoever. If you just stated that to begin with you could have saved boring the rest of us with all the rest of your verbal diarrhea.
Ken – You’re a boring one-trick pony who can’t handle the truth, even after I spelled it out to you for the tenth time.
For once why not act like an adult by responding like one. You don’t like the facts I presented? Then say what it is you disagree with. You never take a position and support it with logic or facts, all you do is crap over other people’s.
Those were Kennedy’s exact words, they are NOT gonna “push in all their chips” or increase spending until the core of CMAT has established themselves. It absolutely is the team policy and it’s been the team policy for years now, obviously. Learn the difference between opinion and fact, he said it and I’m just the messenger because of people like you who don’t follow the team and don’t watch the games or the pre and post game coverage. Look at your posts, you bring nothing to the table …. no information, no insight, nothing.
Wake me up when you can manage to write more than two sentences at a time.
There’s no one individual who helps create the Rays Way. They need to recreate the entire system.
Lord – I agree 100%!
Team philosophy starts at the top, then the chain of command is filled based on said philosophy.
In Boston John Henry is very much into using analytics to find bargains as a substitute to paying market rates for elite players. The philosophy obviously hasn’t changed even with Breslow replacing Bloom. I believe it’s a big reason why so many people refused to interview for the HOBO position.
Dude they said they were going for it beginning this winter. Where ya been? Also we have 5 to 7 kids knocking on the door again. 3 in the top 10 6 in the top 100 of MLB prospects and a team that needs health more than almost anything. Don’t miss the Dynasty coming bruh…
guru – Maybe the Sox changed their mind after this year’s NESN ratings, which is down 42% from 3 years ago?
But you believing everything Kennedy says ….. where ya been? Do the words “Full Throttle” ring a bell? How about “we are going for it at the trade deadline”, did you miss that one too?
Actions speak louder than words, always.
I agree the future looks brighter with the prospects, but they alone can’t make the team a true contender.
sportingnews.com/us/mlb/boston-red-sox/news/red-so…
Fever- They say the building blocks are now in place and they plan on adding to them. This would of been a playoff team if they didn’t trade Sale and Giolito never got hurt so early. I have no doubt Detroit would of been left out. This team isn’t far at all, it’d be nonsense to actually think management doesn’t think they can compete in 2025. Maybe there’s no big free agents they want this year, Soto is great but I wouldn’t sign him to Boston when the outfield is our strength. We need arms….straight up
Rays in the Bay;
Actually, the run on hiring personnel out of the Rays organization has become crazy. Get in there at a low level and one can jump up in their careers. It’s just nuts.
MLBTR might want to do an article detailing all the hires the past 18 or so months. I understand copycats in pro sports, but this is truly something. Have to go back to where more than half the Head Coaches in the NFL were hired because they had some sort of tie to Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense…..no matter how small.
Fever Pitch Guy: the Red Sox publicly stating they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026
====================
False and misleading. The Red Sox have never said this.
Adding FP to my very small list of mutes has paid enormous dividends.
I totally agree!
Rays in the Bay: The Red Sox are significantly outspending the Rays and it looks like Breslow is continuing to overhaul the organization.
@ all. I think you misunderstood. Of course Boston outspends the Rays. Every team does. What I’m saying is that richer teams want to cut payroll while still bring competitive so they poach Rays staff to imitate that.
Rays in the Bay: The Red Sox have been consistently spending around the first luxury tax threshold. I think they will wind up there again this year.
@ Samuel, that’s because as player salaries are set by the likes of the Dodgers and Mets and Yankees, other teams refuse to follow or simply can’t follow. That’s why they want to copy the Rays Way to be competitive without breaking the bank. Unfortunately, being cheap in baseball gets you nowhere. Even the Rangers and Dbacks broke bank last year to get to a single WS and both didn’t make it back to the postseason. For a team like the Rays, it’s disappointingly impossible for them to win the WS, because talent means everything in the postseason and Rays can’t afford it. Boston can, but doesn’t want to keep up with the Dodgers and Mets.
the run on hiring personnel out of the Rays organization has become crazy
=======================
It was the same for the Theo and Tito successors.
This is going to be a wild suggestion, but maybe teams are simply looking for smart people, and not looking to copy the entire MO.
That is very true. It seems like a significant number of GM and PoBO hires tend to come from the TBR and CLE organizations. There’s always some assistant GM or farm director with one of those teams who becomes the new hotshot candidate for front office openings.
Didn’t Chaim Bloom, who traded Mookie Best for nothing, come from Rays?
The main return to the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade was $48M which was half of David Price’s remaining contract. When a team takes on that much money, they don’t need to send back a great group of players.
All = Since Price opted-out the money against the cap in 2020 never happened so if they had kept him, they would still have Mookie and be under the cap and Betts only wanted a $9Million dollar raise to $36Million a year.
That may have seem like a wild suggestion at the time but he’s worth every penny because in the 5 years in LA he’s won a ring and is in the World Series for the second time with LA and his OPS has gone up 9 points and his OPS+ has gone up 11. In his 5 years in the bigger park in LA he’s hit 7 less homers than in 6 years in Fenway and his main drop off is SBs from 21 to 12. He’s finished 2nd twice in the MVP voting, 5th once in the 4 years prior to this year. It’s likely he’ll be 4 for 5 when the MVP voting comes out for 2024.
$9Million dollars and we paid JBJ $11Million to play defense only!! As each year passes the size of the mistake grows. Also, we’ll never know if Price was done because of his heart issue during COVID but we’ve seen what Sale can do when not playing for Cora.
Babe Ruth was the last deal as bad as the Mookie deal because no deal has hurt the organization more. You can try to blame Mookie if you like but he asked for 12 years at $36Million and we are in year 5 and the $36 Million is far less than he’s been worth 5/12ths of the way into the contract.
Neither Price nor Sale nor Mookie had problem contracts. They were large because the players were elite. The organization lost it’s competitiveness because they changed their focus from winning to pretending they needed to rebuild when they already had a champion and a HOF GM.
We’ll never know why they did it but you can rule out money as the reason. I hope someday a sports writer documents the events of 2018 and 2019 so it’s clear why Cora ever got hired, why Dombrowski got fired, why Henry wanted Mookie out of Boston, why Bloom was selected to dismantle the Championship team and why Cora was re-hired after being sentenced to baseball jail for a year.
This era in Red Sox history should be as complex to unravel and as interesting as the JFK shooting. Nobody told the truth, the public was deceived and Boston (like the Government) kept trying to find patsies to blame for the disaster. I can’t wait for the book to come out!!!
Price opted out of 2020 after he was traded to the Dodgers and the Red Sox could not have predicted Covid and related opt outs. I believe Mookie was determined to test free agency in order to get the most money he could get. So, they traded him in order to get something in return for him. He was telling people in 2019 that he was going to be a free agent and that it was just part of the business.
Mookie in 2019: “I’ve loved it here. I love the front office, my teammates, coaches. Everybody. It’s been nothing but amazing here. Just because you go to free agency doesn’t mean you don’t want to be somewhere. It’s just a part of the business.”
masslive.com/redsox/2019/07/mookie-betts-boston-re…
“Since Price opted-out the money against the cap in 2020 never happened so if they had kept him”
Price was traded in February and he. opted out in July for covid reasons.
——————
“We’ll never know why they did it but you can rule out money as the reason.”
The reason was to get under the threshold. The Red Sox dont have a crystal ball and didnt know Price would opt out five months after the trade.
All, fully agree on the Betts deal. We’ve been there done that with Tampa personnel. While I believe Bloom should have gotten a chance to play the team he drafted, this is more of Henry doubling down I not spending in my view. He needs to “show Sox fans” it’s not true in my view.
Dombrowski should have never taken Mookie to arbitration. People forget about that fact when discussing the reasons why Mookie left. .
You signing a blank check? Mookie was always going year to year, letting the arbitrator decide if there was no compromise. Anyway, if there was a chance, do you really think it was DD’s call?
yes I do think it was DD’s call. You don’t have to go to arbitration. That was stupid and Theo was right as policy to not do that with players.
All = I can’t tell what your point is by this response. Yes Price opted out after COVID hit, I didn’t suggest he didn’t. I pointed out that Price would have put the team under the CAP if he stayed in Boston and opted out which was supposedly the reason the trade happened. I also pointed out that Mookie didn’t want out he wanted a fair salary which he trusted he’d get under Dombrowski but realized he wouldn’t under Bloom but that was ok because free agency would get him a fair salary and it did. It seems like you agreed with that point.
Mookie wanted a fair salary and knew he could get it from free agency like every other player in the MLB. He wasn’t the bad guy in the situation, he was the guy following the rules of the sport and trying not be short changed by the greedy owner who had asked for home town discounts for decades.
My point was this never needed to happen, the destruction of the franchise. It was a choice by ownership not the fans, not the players simply the greedy ownership. Apparently four championships was enough or something else happened that changed their direction and that’s what I hope a writer discovers and discloses to the public.
Salvi – The cost of going over the cap with the payroll as it was late in 2019 was going to be less than $10Million since the fee was 50% and they were $20Million over the cap. The owners were making $300Million so I am not buying the financial crisis that has been suggested.
You and I have no idea why all this happened and if you believe the bs you were fed then you are simply naive. Nobody in their right mind releases their franchise player for next to nothing because they refuse to give him a $9Million dollar raise when the penalty for going over is only $10Million. Something else drove the destruction of the franchise and as a long time fan I hope to find out one day what it really was. If you choose to believe the non-sensical rhetoric from the organization that is your choice but don’t expect others to be so trusting of the bizarre behavior exhibited in 2019 and beyond.
“Which he trusted he’d get with Dombrowski”
Contract extensions can be signed at any time. Dombrowski had 3 years ro extend him, but Betts refused to talk extension. How do you not know this? He was as good as gone, long before Bloom arrived.
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Also you intentionally left out the timing and reason for Prices opt-out. So, yes you were being misleading. Especially when you claimed “Well never know why …”
acell10 – We know so little about the arbitration situation that it’s hard to conclude anything. Did ownership tell Dombrowski to take him to arbitration because they were trying to save some money? Did Dombrowski take him to arbitration to allow him a fair market price? We don’t know. We can’t say how Mookie reacted to it because we don’t know. He could have been thankful to Dombrowski for getting a fair price, he could have considered it another indication ownership was going to ask for home town discounts, we simply don’t know. These are things that would be nice to have clarified some day.
acell10 = To NOT go to arbitration would have meant inflating the price higher than the arbitration price. Mookie during his arbitration years was phenomenal. He got paid fairly through arbitration because ownership chose to low ball him. If you have observed anything about Dombrowski is that he doesn’t low ball his stars. That had to come from above. Then there is the black issue with regard to ownership. It’s been suggested many times that the owners had some racist tendencies and short changing the black superstar may have been their motivation but we’ll never know. We do know they dumped their two best black players. That’s a fact. We do know the owners discussed the issue diversity publicly at the end of 2017 and tried to fix it by hiring Cora two weeks later. Did that mask any real underlying issues? Who knows? They still dumped their two top black stars.
I’m not suggesting I know what happened and I don’t believe anyone really knows why this huge change in direction happened when Dombrowski was fired. Three straight division titles and a WS ring was success that far exceeded anything in the franchises history the previous 100 years. Why change direction like they did? It wasn’t because they weren’t making enough money. So what was the real reason? That’s all I want to know and I don’t believe the BS we have been fed. Think about the fact that Dombrowski went out and recreated his success in Philly. He built a perennial winner just like in Boston. The dismantling of Boston had nothing to do with Dombrowski, it’s all on ownership. Too bad we don’t know why.
Sagacity
if you believe the bs you were fed then you are simply naive.
===================================
What is boils down to is whether Betts wanted to stay or not. If he wanted out of Boston, then trading him was the right thing to do. If he wanted to stay at a reasonable price, then keeping him would have correct.
It is not a matter or naive or not naive.
Sagacity:
What are you talking about?
“Financial crisis” who has claimed there was one besides you? The reason to get under the threshold is to reaet the penalties. The lost draft picks, the lost Int Pool money.
“9 million raise” Betts wasnt negotiating, period. So where are you getting a specific 9M when no numbers were revealed.
————
Red Sox were over the threshold in both ‘19 and ‘20. Something you were completely wrong about in the past). They had no minor league talent coming up (30th ranked fram system at the end of 2019).And had several stars reaching free agency. It had nothing to do with a “financial crisis”. It had everything to do with an impending ‘talent crisis’.
none of your hypotheticals really make sense given what we do know about Mookie and the arbitration process in general. GM’s never take players to arbitration to allow them to get market price. They do that deflate their value and thats exactly what DD attempted to do with Mookie. Ownership was perfectly fine allowing Theo to negotiate and not allow things to go to arbitration.
KD/TF/sag: arbitration is all or nothing. By not going to arbitration the team is more likely than not to not pay as much as the player is asking for while at the same time not pissing the player off. it’s not worth it. So by avoiding arbitration you’re doing the opposite of what you’re saying
Salvi = Check Dombrowski’s standard signing policy. He signed extensions prior to the season a player was to be a free agent. I fully expected 2020 to be the year Mookie got a 2021 deal for 12 years at $36Million and I believe Dombrowski got fired because Henry said no and Dombrowski told him he couldn’t do his job without keeping Mookie.
Salvi – Price opted out due to his heart condition. That was never a point of deception. Is that new news to you? I simply said his heart condition related to COVID.
Do you think he opted out for another reason? If so, what?
The problem wasn’t not resigning Betts, but waiting to trade him and attaching Price’s contract. The Sox reportedly offered him $300 in either 2018 or during spring of 2019, which he turned down. By the 2019 deadline it became clear the Sox were unlikely going to make the playoffs. They should have moved him at the deadline. That would have given a team a year and a half of control, which I think would have gotten them 3 top 100 prospects (obviously you don’t attach prices contract). Giving a player a 12 year deal is stupid. A majority of 7 or 8 year deals end up bad, let alone 12. Good luck with the ohtani contract and whatever sucker pays Soto.
Joe – You simplified the decision and I agree with the simple logic you presented. The media presented Mookie as a bad guy in many cases, it suggested that Dombrowski was to blame for spending too much but that wasn’t true because the overage was on Cherington. That’s the type of bs I was referencing. I wish everyone can skinny the noise the way you did!!
Salvi – Sorry to frustrate you but let me be as precise as possible because I only quoted facts.
1 – Betts was paid $27 Million in 2020 before he was traded.
2 – $9 Million added to $27 Million is $36Million which is what Mookie’s agent said in the press. $36M per year or $420 Million for 12 years.
3 – The draft pick not picks you reference were dependent on the final tally at year end so there might not have been any or there could have been as many two fairly insignificant draft picks. You are talking a volume pick not a value pick.
4 – International Pool money wasn’t certain either, just like the draft picks. You assume the year end number was going to be a specific number and there is no way to know that hypothetically as you are suggesting.
5 – The threshold in 2019 was exceeded by the $41 Million in Retained Payroll. Those are costs incurred during Cherington’s era. The penalty for that overage was supposed to be eaten ownership as agreed to when Dumbrowski signed on as GM.
6 – The Red Sox had Houck, Duran and Casas all in the farm system and the talent rating was done by idiots as our Red Sox farm guys have proven. There was no talent crisis and if you think the guys coming now are better than Duran, Casas and Houck you are going to be very disappointed. So far none look to be exceptional with the exception of Campbell. Teel will be an above average catcher, Anthony will be an above average outfielder and Mayer will be an average SS if he can stay healthy and Campbell doesn’t beat him out for the spot.
The talent right now is the best since Mookie left because of the Dombrowski draft choices. If anything comes of Bloom’s it will be a bonus that is unexpected.
There was never a talent crisis, there was a talent dumping by Bloom. The system was loaded in 2018 and the plan was to keep the core group to 2022. Firing Dombrowski changed all that and ended an era. 3 Division Champs was unprecedented. Another world series 5 years after the 2013 series was exceptional. No, your version of what happened isn’t reality. It’s a rationalization of a huge mistake by ownership. The talent from Dombrowski’s era was the best assembled since the early days of Theo. The waiting for Bloom’s crap to clear is the only time there has been an issue of talent and now Breslow is selecting the players. His first round pick, like Dombrowski’s, will be the next major shot in the arm. It also doesn’t hurt that Boston has basically been pushed into a forced tanking by bad ownership. The draft picks in recent years reflect the ineptitude of the organization and should build up the farm system. It’s not like someone is doing something right the MLB team has had a string of bad failures to build their farm system under both Bloom and Breslow. We got Casas, Houck and Duran when the team was winning the division and the world series.
acell10/salvi/all in the suit you wear – I don’t get your game but I’ll play along.
You simply don’t get it. Who told you such nonsense?
If a player wants to know their real value they ask management for the arbitration. That’s logical.
If a player is immature and a hot head, they might get mad about going to arbitration because they will probably lose since they have an over inflated ego. For you to believe most players are ignorant fools is an odd way to look at baseball players. Don’t judge others by what you would do!!!
Seriously, you have an incredibly negative outlook on life no matter who you really are.
soxfan4381 – That’s revisionist history. Dombrowski was on schedule to make Mookie an offer in ST of 2020 just like his other contracts one year prior to him being a free agent in 2021. The $300 Million was a terrible offer for 10 years. He was worth way more than that and based on Red Sox history it sounds like an infamous home town discount offer that cost us many players in the past.
Just because you think 12 years is dumb doesn’t make it so. Look how far above the $36Million a year rate Mookie has played for the last 5 years. If he tails off late in the contract his net value will be higher than his cost. Whether you do it one year at a time or 12 at a time, as long the net value comes out ahead it’s a good deal. Mookie is far more valuable than his annual cost in LA. Thus, an incredible dumb thing to do giving him away like we did.
Now switch to Devers. That is an incredibly bad contract. Why? He kills the team on defense, his offensive skills will fall off long before Mookie and he did nothing great to earn it. Look at Mookie’s achievements and look at Devers. Mookie had an MVP before his LA contract, Devers is lucky to get mentioned occasionally in the MVP race.
Age 22 –
Mookie 19th in MVP voting
Devers 12 in MVP voting
Age 23 –
Mookie 2nd in MVP, SS, GG, AS,
Devers NOTHING
Age 24 –
Mookie 6th in MVP, GG, AS,
Devers 11th in MVP,SS,AS.
Age 25 –
Mookie MVP, GG, SS, AS
Devers MVP 14th, AS
Age 26 –
Mookie 8th in MVP, GG,SS, AS
Devers 18th in MVP, SS
Age 27 – (Mookie and Devers given big contracts)
Mookie (COVID Year) – 2nd in MVP, GG, SS (NO AS in 2020)
Devers – AS
Mookie at 27 had achieved so much more greatness that his contract is NOT outrageous and could end up being a team friendly one in the end.
Devers at 27 achieved very little and can’t field while Mookie has 6 gold gloves. Worst contract ever by far for Boston.
If you want to point to a tremendously bad contract it’s Devers’ not Mookie’s!!!
KD/Saga that’s not how the process arbitration works. Players don’t “ask” for arbitration. They are required to do that if they can’t reach a contract agreement with their respective teams. Players and teams are required to do it. Players don’t need to go arbitration to determine their “market value” either.
Also I never said what I would or wouldn’t do. I don’t judge players or call them lazy. That’s not fair. you projecting your negative views onto me and to the players which you don;’t have to do.
Sagacity
The media presented Mookie as a bad guy in many cases
=========================
The Boston media has a lot of idiots in it. You could look this up, but there were several writers that didn’t think Betts was even tradable at his salary with one year of control.
That said, I never thought there were bad guys. I don’t think Mookie wanted to stay in Boston, and that’s fine with me. Workers bees, even those making $30M, should work wherever they want. I could think if plenty of reasons for players to hate Boston or love Boston.
The talent right now is the best since Mookie left because of the Dombrowski draft choices. If anything comes of Bloom’s it will be a bonus that is unexpected.
================================
We have 4 guys in the top-25, which is pretty rare. Weren’t they all Bloom guys?
Sagacity:
“1 – Betts was paid $27 Million in 2020 before he was traded.”
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What? 2020’s salary was paid entirely by the Dodgers. I have no idea why you think otherwise. The team didnt cut him a check for $27M in January of 2020. Do you think “negotiated” and “paid” mean the same thing?
I couldnt read your long-winded post any further. Im sure its one exaggeration or assumption after another until you reach a conclusion that is ridiculous.
Yes. The Red Sox seem to like hiring from legacies of zero championships.
let – You are 100% correct.
John Henry’s obsession with Tampa’s MO is very similar to his obsession with Oakland’s MO back in the early 2000’s.
Remember how “successful” the Moneyball Athletics were supposedly, which is why Henry tried to sign Billy? They still haven’t won an LCS game (not just series, not even a GAME) since 1992.
Yup, hiring Theo from the Padres was a stroke of genius.
unningred
for nothing
========================
Nonsense. They traded “Best” for 12.9 bWAR, with four more yeas remaining on Wong, projecting our return to be about 20 bWAR, in addition to the anticipated $30M savings on Price.
Joe – To me that’s a half full perspective because it does not take into account opportunity cost.
We lost a massive bWAR stream that would have been Mookie that is now benefitting LAD. We received average and bad players that need to be compared to what we could have had in the roster spots less the actual people we got. Any residual value is the benefit gained from the trade.
For example, ONE player was Jeter Downs. Had he not been included in the deal we would have had another player in our minors that should be assumed to achieve standard league average results. When we subtract Jeter Downs from that player the net result in my opinion would have been a bWAR value that was positive meaning we were technically worse off getting Jeter Downs. During the time Verdugo was in Boston you need to compare his value to the league standard for a starting right fielder in the AL or MLB depending how specific you want to be. That person less Verdugo would give you the net bWAR from adding Verdugo. That too might have been negative. Lastly, Wong needs to be compared to a comparable roster spot being taken up in the minors and majors during the same time frame. The totals need to be subtracted to see if there was a NET gain by getting Wong. Lastly, you must compare Mookies 5 years and his first year to an average right fielder to quantify his positive effect for LA and negative effect for Boston. I believe strongly that when done thoroughly, the bWAR for this deal would show LA winning it counting ONE year of Mookie BUT if you consider the fact that the deal allowed them another decade of Mookie, this deal was a travesty by measuring the 10 year loss of Mookie’s NET bWAR versus an average right fielder.
Opportunity cost is a real cost and the Mookie deal was all about opportunity cost as you watch LA going for their second ring since he moved over.
I don’t believe whether you are trading in real life or in fantasy sports you ignore the opportunity cost of each deal. One roster spot gets replaced by someone new and if you can’t specifically name that person then use an average Joe substitute as the alternative you could have had if the deal didn’t happen. That way you know if you truly improved your team or simply picked up a bunch of guys who total a bWar that is calculated in a vacuum without regard to what you could have had without the deal.
We lost a massive bWAR stream that would have been Mookie that is now benefitting LAD.
========================
1-We only lost that massive bWAR stream if we are sure that Betts would’ve signed in Boston. We don’t know that, and imho, Betts wanted to leave.
2-If Betts was leaving, then we did well. Getting two 5-year starters is a good return for anyone.
I wonder if Theo is involved at all. I know he has a small stake in the larger umbrella Boston Sports. But I haven’t heard that he’s involved in mlb at all. He’s familiar with Breslow from their time in Chicago
Breslow said last season that Theo was watching every pitch of every game and that he consults with him. So, I think Theo is quite involved.
nesn.com/2024/07/red-soxs-craig-breslow-explains-t…
Henry continues to try and follow the Ray’s model of low payroll teams
…and ZERO championships to show for it.
The Red Sox are one of many teams trying to be more like the Rays in terms of talent evaluation and player development which the Rays are great at. However, the Red Sox are not following the Rays model as the Red Sox are significantly outspending the Rays.
be more like the Rays in terms of talent evaluation and player development
============================
Some RS fans are idiots.
Every smart company on the entire planet copies the best-in-industry practices. The idea that the RS shouldn’t have the best scouts, or the best development, or the latest in cutting edge athletic training (or whatever we just hired), is insane.
Except for the fact that we have never had a low payroll.
The Red Sox front office seems quite top heavy with executive leadership & VP personnel. Do any other MLB teams have 4 assistant GMs in their organization? They keep adding to the front office and ignoring the additions needed on the field for this team to be competitive. After the “full throttle” comments from last year, I’m not sure I believe the recent statements that the team will be aggressive in adding players this offseason. Only time will tell, but the Sox need to add/acquire a #1 starting pitcher, add to the bullpen and balance out their lineup this year (more RHH) if they want their fans’ support (and money) in 2025. A lot of fans are growing tired of the “we’re building from within” message from the last 5 years. Adding talent to the front office is fine, but adding talent to the roster should be priority #1 to every executive and the owner as well.
Nice to see you commenting again, D–you’ve always been a voice for sanity. I imagine other teams have “4 assistant GMs” in their org, but probably under different titles. I doubt that the Sox have become truly top-heavy with execs compared to most. The Kyle Boddy situation is very interesting–the one-year charge is to set up a program and then depart (except as a part-time consultant). It’s a lot of interesting movement, but, of course, most Sox followers want to see bigger names on the field. I could go for a #1 myself, although I’ll limit that to Burnes or maybe Flaherty.
Looks like Breslow is continuing to overhaul baseball operations. This can be done at the same time as adding talent to the roster.
This can be done at the same time
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Of course. As I mentioned above, I have no idea why people have any problem with us hiring the best scouts, trainers, beer vendors, etc.
I’d love to see Snell & Roki come here, but paying $150k here and there for trainers and such isn’t even a rounding mistake on Snell and Roki.
“Only time will tell, but the Sox need to add/acquire a #1 starting pitcher, add to the bullpen….”
Dorothy_Mantooth;
Nice to read you again!
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It’ nothing personal, but I read the above here regarding pitchers from fans of more than half the teams in MLB every single year.
Looking over the FA stating pitchers, I see 3 #1 guys:
Corbin Burnes (30 years old, 7.2 WAR)
Gerrit Cole (34, 7.2) — can opt out
Blake Snell (32, 7.2) — can opt out
Those 3 have crackerjack agents that are going to want not just big bucks every year, but want them for multiple years. So they’ll be sort of like Schurzer and deGrom have been the last few years for many years in the future.
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Here are the guys heading the FA relief pitchers:
Tanner Scott (30 years old, 4.5 WAR)
Jeff Hoffman (32, 3.6)
David Robertson (40, 3.1) — mutual option
Aroldis Chapman (37, 2.9)
Clay Holmes (32, 2.8)
They’re older, have track records, and have hardy been consistent – including in 2024.
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Point being that while teams are best to grow their own with position players, they can always sign or trade for them. But pitchers are volatile so it’s best they grow their own. With the epidemic of pitchers injuries in which TJ surgery is now normal – costing a team 12-18 months of salary as well as a hit on their medieval insurance – we can go full circle and understand why teams with no clue about pitching are hiring Rays personnel away hoping the magic fairy dust spreads.
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That leaves trading. But trading for established pitching is just as bad. Teams want multiple quality youngsters with years of control back – which are the largest assets a MLB franchise can have on their 40 man roster.
There is no real alternative to teams growing their own pitchers. And due to injuries and inconsistencies, they have to grow at least 3-4 for every one that’s active and producing at any given time.
Hi Samuel –
I agree with most of what you have to say. Boston now has the prospects to deal for a young, potential ace / solid #1 starter. A package including Casas, one of the big 3 (Mayer, Anthony, Teel) and some additional pieces could be enough to shake free a young, potential #1 starter. (I don’t want them to deal Campbell). The Sox could then sign Alonso to play 1B, helping to balance the lineup. I don’t think they need to spend on a 30 something free agent pitcher to be an ace, but I wouldn’t be upset if they do. The problem with their young talent is that the 3 top prospects I mention + Casas, Duran, Raffy, Abreu & Masa all bat LH. They can’t run a lineup out there with 6-7 LHH most nights, so something needs to be done to even out the lineup and a trade for a big time pitcher would make a lot of sense.
Yup, for all the concern about trading our prospects, if one assumes that Campbell is going to be an outfielder, then we have 5 very good outfielders/prospects, and one pretty decent prospect in Bleis.
Everything is about fit going forward.
Dorothy_Mantooth;
Let’s see if any team is offering a top starting pitcher for trade this year.
Maybe someone in the last year of his contract on a team that’s rebuilding or taking a step back.
C’mon Mark, you know the consistent success with the Rays is teaching the Roger Beshens Football Slider, it all started when Glasnow learned the Roger Beshens Football Slider May 2018 in Pitt and the Rays noticed it in June.
You want to see a picture of Roger Beshens and Strom in the Dbacks clubhouse talking techniques of the RB Football Slider? If you saw that what would that tell you?
The Red Sox should try spending more money on players and less money on executives. They seem to be following the model being adopted by corporate America.
…….and the government.
Bureaucracy be thy name.
To be fair, how many front office execs make more than a desirable free agent these days?
lay – The problem is that under Bloom and now Breslow the admin payroll has soared because so many people are getting paid well to produce data of which 95% is not used and the 5% that is used has often led to the wrong decisions being made.
The Red Sox should try spending more money on players and less money on executives.
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It’s just the opposite, imo. If you added up the entire FO cost for the RS, scouts, etc., it might not be any more the what Giolito cost. The smart money will be on drafting and developing prospects.
Joe – Easier said than done. The hit rate on hiring executives is very low. To me, it’s like spending more money when you are at the tables losing in Vegas. Step away, regroup and come back with a winning strategy for hiring executives, managers and coaches.
From where I am sitting the pitching coaches seem to be the most effective hires in the front office since Dombrowski.
I don’t think any of us know how we got some of our prospects, but 2021-23, we nabbed 4 top-25 prospects, along with some other pieces. That could be 4 different people, but I’d be looking to replicate that process, assuming that it is something more than random.
Joe – That’s a great point. There are hundreds of resources that are within the organization and without more insights into their skills it’s hard to know who talked up the successful prospects versus those not performing as well as they should be. We could have one brilliant skills evaluator who found the group of fast developing players or it may be one prospect for each of 10 or 12 people.
In TB, somebody sat around with Bloom and picked some great players and trades and like in Boston it could have been one or many. All we know is the knowledge didn’t transfer to Bloom because he wasn’t allowed to bring others with him and he didn’t appear to cultivate many while in Boston. Since Breslow arrived, we see improvements in pitching. Whether that’s one person who brought along a group of other pitching coaches to improve the overall program or simply one strong person recruiting a bunch more excellent pitching coaches we don’t know..
Like so many internal facts, we don’t really know where the successes are coming from and the failures. We see a Campbell go from College to dominating all levels in the minors in 2 years. Good scouting? Good Player Development? Good character of the player? All three or some combo? Who knows. Great results, YES. That type of hit doesn’t happen often since we can name on one hand those that flourished during the last 15 years in the Boston system: Pedroia, Bogey, Mookie, Devers and Benny.
So to see the current generation of Duran, Houck, Casas all developing into all-star quality players and the future generation of Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and Teel all advancing quickly it’s clear that somewhere in the organization there is at least one if not many more sources for the talent. Let’s hope the ACTUAL smart ones are the ones with authority to make more wise decisions because the decimation of the roster was very complete by Bloom.
The boost that the program has gotten since the 2018 team was disbanded has been excellent. Lets hope the trend continues by maintaining the good resources and making sure they are the leaders going into the future.
PLAYER AQUISITIONS is the most important area to improve on. This is where they need to focus their attention. QUALITY players with skills. Not retreads, cast-offs or injured players. JEEZ cmon this isn’t rocket science.
Oh & one more area……CHECK WRITING….as in sign some stars. I’m done ranting. Enjoy your day.
Fenwayfrank – Excellent rant!!
It seems like I hear way too much about this guy for him just being an assistant coach. I see articles about who he’s voting for and which NFL team he’s backing. (Chiefs if I recall). What’s with that?
The Red Sox don’t need another nerd in the front office, they need an ace starting pitcher for the staff. Time to spend some cash, Henry.