Shane Bieber’s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health. It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract. Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.
Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians. A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab. From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.
More from around the baseball world…
- Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla’s contract is up now that the season is over, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. It isn’t known if there have been any talks between the two sides, but Acee feels an extension “should be a no-brainer” given how well the Padres’ staff has performed over Niebla’s three seasons on the job. San Diego pitchers have a combined 3.80 ERA over the 2022-24 seasons, ranking ninth in baseball in that span. Manager Mike Shildt is also now entering a walk year since 2025 is the last season of his initial two-year contract, and surely the Padres will also look to give the skipper more security in the wake of his very successful inaugural campaign with the club.
- The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games. As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.” If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload. You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue. How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?” Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.
A healthy Shane Bieber is probably the best free agent pitcher on the market. I would give him a two year deal.
no way, might not be able to break 90 when he returns. had already lost so much velocity before injury/surgery
He might have lost velocity because of the injury. Certainly a big question mark.
Perhaps he’s a pitcher and not a thrower. He’s worth the two years.
stpofsd;
A pitcher losing velocity is often a sign that he has an injury.
Many pitchers come through TJ surgery (including TJ) throwing harder than they ever had. That’s logical as they’ve replaced a worn, defective ligament with a stronger, often little-used – tendon from another area of the body or from a deceased donor.
When the surgery first started many so-so pitchers were worming their way in for surgery in an attempt to increase their velocity.
usually young pitchers come back from tj throwing harder, not so much with 30+ yr old pitchers though
If he struck out 20 in 12 innings on low velocity what’s he going to do with a good arm?
Shane Bieber who has been in decline for 3 years now and is coming off Tommy John surgery? He might not be ready to pitch until the middle of 2025 and it usually takes a year to knock off the rust after TJS. Why on earth would you give a guy in that spot 2 years?
Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, and Gerritt Cole (pending opt-out) are all available this offseason and Bieber is your pick as best available FA starter?
I’m starting to think the cardinals could blow it all up and find a way to trade arenado Contreras and gray (maybe even Gorman too because of the K’s)
Especially since bloom is coming bloom would want to have a lot of prospects
You could probably get two or three rosin bags for Gorman, thrown in a bag of boiled peanuts, and some team would take a chance on him.
That’s entirely too specific.
If you throw in some pine tar to be named later, we got a deal.
Dang, I miss boiled peanuts since I moved to the left coast.
If they think Bloom can fix player development, it would make almost zero sense to trade Gorman. His value is at an all-time low and he’s young so he will be able to benefit from said player development.
Unless someone pays for his potential and not performance, Gorman is staying put.
I’m not sure they understand their responses. If the dude is only worth a bag of peanuts, that is EXACTLY the reason to not trade him.
I wonder how many of these fans wanted to trade O’Neill.
Dont confuse them with facts. They are entitled to their opinions.
Most of the people who wanted O’Neill traded felt the situation was toxic and irredeemable.
I don’t want Gorman traded in a sell very low situation. I’d rather they try to work the still very young man through it.
Tricky part is teaching guys to recognize what is fatigue and what is pain or signs of an injury.
I once heard this past season Brian Cashman mention that there is tech to help track pitcher fatigue.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8711585/
cool paper. Willing to debate whether it’s worth teaching kids how to pitch without going max effort on all pitches. This’d avoid the question. Should really be doing both, but not sure which they’d get more mileage out of. For younger years I’d imagine it’s prep work, while vets might care more about fatigue as they age.
Lord Lord John Henry pick up an injured pitcher again Said this Bargain is gonna be the end of me
Wow Dusty, If your pitchers don’t know how to make adjustments when the arm gets tired, that’s pretty sad! LOL
Tell us Dusty Blake what does a pitcher have to do when he’s getting tired and his breaking ball is high. I learned that in 7th grade. I also learned my adjustment worked on why my fastball was high also. I’m feeling very smart right now.
Can I put an application in for ML pitching coach-Cardinals?
Maybe I will contact Mike Petrellio he has some contacts.
Dback’s and Marlins available 2.
7th grade and pro ball are slightly different things.
And Dusty didn’t know what a 7th grader knew 47 years ago.
That’s sad.
That’s not at all what was said here lol
Brent Strom has his usc cap in Lovullo’s UCLA office.
Rodon was like a robot, it’s like a one piece thing.
Well you shouldn’t have been throwing breaking balls in 7th grade. Moving from little league distances to 60ft 6in and throwing breaking balls is why most kids get bad arms.
Sore arm not a bad arm. 2 weeks don’t touch a ball and it’s fine. Even extreme tendinitis can go away with 3 weeks not touching a ball.
A guy like Walston could have came back EASY in in 21 days, instead PT”S that never pitched destroy the healing process with daily BS. Disaster for Walston, another disaster throwing that cutter and why the heck did he throw so many pitchers in the bullpen session. Missed that Saturday start tinkering with different release with the CU and FSlider.
Bad arms happen with kids cause they spin the curve ball sideways. Pat Kelly of the Yankees hurt his arm in 8th grade pitching curves. He played second cause he had no arm, he had the worst arm on relay throws to the gap. Pat hung out with Clete Boyer in 1989, imagine that!!! LOL Imagine hanging at a bar at age 22 with Clete Boyer, Gallegos even thought it was strange. Pat was adopted, I always thought Clete was his real dad. No way PK makes it without him.
Just a sore arm, recovered, Threw freshman year 60ft 6in and then in summer 50 feet, Also throwing over 150 pitches a game, All the aces did that. I remember hearing pitch 124, so what I feel great. lol I threw until I got tired, which was the game is over.
You are spot on so sick of Ollie and Dusty and their guessing from day today
Brent Strom’s Dbacks won 89 games, 7 losses were with a guy who never was ready for the Major club. Cecconi. You think Strom knows how to make adjustments for tired pitchers?
People with any pitching knowledge know in 7th grade what a pitcher needs to do when his breaking balls are high. Tip, it’s the same adjustment when ANY Pitch is high. The reporter might have caught Dusty hitting the Schlitz a little early.
Tell us, what’s the not-so-secret strategy when breaking balls are high?
You really think telling all the pitchers in the minors how to make an adjustment when they are tired is the reason they are better? LOL
Dusty hit’s the Schlitz way too early sometimes.
I would hope he also told them to make adjustments when they aren’t tired also!!! LOL
Little league coaches know the top 5 reasons, It’s embarrassing when a Pro pitching coach mentions that helped his minor league teams. What the heck is a pro pitching coach even bringing up something so stupid. Are other pitching coaches supposed to Google the answer or get AI to help out. Dusty get away from the bottles of Schlitz move up to Busch, 12 pack at Wawa on sale through the World Series. I hope he’s enjoying his early vacation again. What’s next when a pitcher lifts his leg higher and brings it down faster he throws harder? LOL
The secret is to throw the Roger Breshens Football Slider
That’s obvious, especially when you watch the 48 minute video of Strom and Roger talking Football Slider in the Dbacks Clubhouse.
Now that I think about that might have got him and the boys fired. That’s sanctuary ground. If Nelson threw all football sliders instead of that cutter he could have been big time elite. That confliction just may have hurt him and the team making the playoffs. If D’backs won 84 and got in playoffs, Hazen would have been happy.
There’s techniques to that Roger Beshens Football Slider in there that hundreds of ML pitchers would love to know. On the video Strom even says, Nelson wasn’t doing that!
It’s embarrassing. He’s a major league pitching coach.
Every pro pitcher should know exactly what they did wrong when misfiring on a pitch. The problem is command, if you don’t got it your hosed. The stupid teams can’t identify that soon enough and they don’t teach that special slider, Roger Beshens Football Slider, the correct way, they golf early.
Bieber couldn’t avg over 10 K’s a game until 2018 we all know what kind of special slider he learned. Matter of fact over 50 guys couldn’t avg over a K an IP until 2018. First yr in MLB more Strikeouts than K’s. Roger Beshens Football Slider persuaded them to launch his slider and they did in numbers. Every year more teams picked up on it. Late May Roger was in the Dbacks Clubhouse showing a future HOF pitching coach certain techniques some missed on. Nelson looked pretty good in June. All Nelson has to do is cut out the cutter.
We do. He learned a Spider Tack slider. That’s banned now. Good luck with him in the future.
People could read pitching books by Tom Seaver
(Taking care of your whole body year round and emphasizing good location, changing speeds, pitch movement, using the strength of your lower body, different arm angles, release points etc. (you still have to be able to execute consistently.) Even the best pitchers occasionally miss their target and a pitch gets hit hard. Give your defense a chance to make a play
Having a strategy/plan to get a hitter out and being a good observer of what the batter is doing during the at bat.
Cat and mouse game. Adjust and Re- Adjust
An analysis of pitchers who succeed without an over reliance on velocity like Greg Maddux would be helpful.
eg. Frank Tanana early in his career was a flamethrower and he sort of reinvented himself and had a long career. Adding a new pitch, (splitter, sinker) some new grips (2 seam, 4 seam, cross seams etc.)
Given current MLB salaries it seems the time investment is probably worth if even if it only adds another 3 years. You have to be disciplined to put in the work, takes some time.
The Tanana story is one method Mr. Noah Syndergaard aka Thor could emulate to continue his career.
LGM!!! Ya Gotta Believe!!!
Why was Bryce Jarvis throwing high sliders most of the time in 2024? Same for Cecconi. Why didn’t Dusty Blake fix that at Duke? Shows you how weak some minor league systems are. Jarvis really screwed up throwing the Cutter, that pitch injured him. Bad Tilt. Just throw the Roger Beshens Football Slider, no reason to morph off of it.
If a coach gets fired after one year on a two year deal. Does the team pay the 2nd? Asking for a friend.
Come up for air, Roger.
Yes. Yes, he does get paid. Even Manager contracts are guaranteed.
Welcome to the Graberitz thread!
I feel like grabbing me some Ritz crackers now.
@inkstain—I was thinking the same thing
It’s time Cleveland brings back franchise hero and adopted son Trevor Bauer before Detroit scoops him up.
Dusty Blake, I’m on pitch #80 my Roger Beshens Football Slider is d#ck high now it was around Freddy Patek’s ball sack around pitch #37 what adjustment do I make? Do I call the Roger Beshens Hotline? Can you help me? I’m not dropping my elbow, I learned that one in 4th grade. How did Jarvis and Cecconi get to the Major club throwing d$ck high sliders? I can’t get over that. That’s a deep in Sh#t minor league system.
What happens if you throw a Roger Beshens Football Slider at less than max effort? What kind of pitch is that then? Slow Slider? I don’t think savant knows what that is.
30% of cutters are Roger Beshens Football Sliders. Mets Reed Garrett proved that yesterday. That’s been going on for years now.
The Slutter, the whirly those are all RBFS.
For the handful of responses on Bieber, there is no reason to speculate until you know the number. For $10M/2, you’ll have 30 interested teams. For $30M/2, you might have -0- interested teams.
Mahle got 2/22 in a similar situation. I would think Bieber gets more
Yeah I think Bieber gets 2/25 w/ incentives to push it up higher.
Ruben niebla is the laughing stock of pitching coaches. Why pay him? Plenty of them out there you can get to do the same thing.
Funniest joke in this entire thread! Almost got me to chuck some coffee through the nose, good on ya
I wish every team used that approach of developing starters to go deeper in games. It will also help get them have a full workload when they get to the majors, new rule or not.
The issue might be more about the 3rd time through, rather than the innings.
The difference in OPS between 51-75 pitches, and 76-100 pitches is non-existent. But the difference between the 2nd time thru the lineup and the 3rd time thru the lineup, is 34 points.
Or put another way, the average SP the 3rd time thru the lineup has a .761 OPS. The average RP has a .697. That’s a huge difference. You have to watch your innings, but you are usually better off with an RP than having an SP face the lineup a 3rd time.
Thanks, Joe. There is definitely some validity to that. I do think more research needs to be done comparing OPS against, by position in the batting order.
Most of the statistics for third time thru the order comes from the best hitters in the lineup.
I expect that if you look at individual spots in the lineup 1st 2nd and 3rd time through, the effect is not nearly so different.
Not to mention, as with the original approach mentioned in the post, the only way pitchers will learn to make adjustments is by having to do it on a regular basis.
More will be revealed.
Oh, I forgot to mention that the earlier the starter comes out, the more low-leverage relievers will be used.
Take the SP out in the 5th and you lower the overall effectiveness of the relievers you use, plus you wear them out having to use them all more innings and more games.
Take out the SP in the 7th and you only have to use 2-3 RPs.
the only way pitchers will learn to make adjustments is by having to do it on a regular basis.
=========================
I remember going to a Doc Gooden game early in his career. He was getting hit, and I wondered out loud why he wasn’t pulled. My friend, who knows a ton of baseball, told me that the only way to learn how to pitch when you don’t have your best stuff, is to pitch when you don’t have your best stuff.
As to your very valid point about the 3rd time thru being the top of the lineup, excellent point. I’m sure someone out there has studied it, and I’d be curious about the results.
the more low-leverage relievers will be used.
========================
That part I took into consideration. I had a couple of reasons for ignoring it.
1-You can tailor your 6th inning guy to the team you face. If you started a righty against my RS, and the top-3 batters are Duran, Yoshida & Devers, for example, I’d be real happy to bring in a lefty to face them.
2-The second issue is that, even if you are bringing in your #4/5/6 RP, you are saving the SP some innings. Again, with my RS, if I use Booser for an extra 15 innings over the course of the season, then that is 5 innings I save for Houck, Crawford, and Bello.
Strategic adjustments should be easy but for some reason we see RHP’s on the left side of rubber getting shelled consistently. That’s on the analytic people who never pitched before and the Front Office allowed it to rule over the PC.
There’s mechanical adjustments like when a pitch is high or low, inside, outside a pitcher must know what he’s doing wrong. There are pitchers out there getting shelled missing spots badly. Some don’t have the command and won’t last long others immediately after the pitch know the adjustment. to make.
Rusty, dusty Blake, our in-house guru, team coach, as a cardinal pitching coach. Please please someone relieve us of this so-called expert expert.
Time to MoveOn and get somebody who actually ever pitched on the mound
This is how inept the Cardinals are since 2018. They never understood teach all your pitchers or select ones the Roger Beshens Football Slider. Roger Beshens could literally in ONE MONTH have pitchers throwing his football slider with all the adjustments needed to help their effectiveness be at elite status.
Calm down Roger!
The Cardinals really do need to try trading as many over 30 players as possible. They need a rebuild and it’s going to be a few years.
I’m very happy they are ramping up player development.
I swear I changed got to going in an edit.
The human arm was not designed to throw a baseball. Let alone doing it for 3 hours at a time. At a 100 MPH.