The qualifying offer in the 2024-25 offseason will be officially set at $21.05MM, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in August that the QO value was expected to land in the vicinity of $21.2MM but would not be finalized until October. This year’s QO value represents an increase of $725K over last year’s mark of $20.325MM. The QO value, which is determined by calculating the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players, has risen nearly every season since being implemented under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a look at the history of the QO value:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
For those in need of a refresher or new to the QO system entirely, it was implemented as a competitive balance measure in an effort to ensure clubs would receive compensation in the following year’s draft if their top players depart and sign elsewhere in free agency. Any team can issue a qualifying offer to an impending free agent at the beginning of the offseason, so long as that player A) has never received a QO in the past and B) spent the entire season on that club’s roster. (In other words: players can only receive one QO in their career, and traded players cannot receive a QO — a measure put in place to prevent big-market clubs from acquiring/claiming expensive players from small-market teams who couldn’t afford the risk of a QO themselves.)
Five days after the end of the World Series, teams must decide whether to issue a QO to any of their impending free agents. Those players will have a week to then survey the market to determine what sort of interest is present in free agency before deciding whether to accept a one-year deal at the QO value or reject it in pursuit of a larger contract. Players who accept the QO are considered signed in the same manner as any free agent, meaning they cannot be traded prior to June 15 of the following season without their consent. Players who reject a qualifying offer are then tied to draft compensation, potentially complicating their market in some cases.
In order to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer, teams must surrender at least one pick — two, in some cases — in the next year’s draft. Some clubs are also required to surrender space from their bonus pool in international amateur free agency.
Any club that pays the luxury tax must surrender its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next year’s draft and forfeit $1MM of international pool space. (Signing a second qualified free agent means surrendering the second- and fifth-highest of their remaining picks, and so forth.) Non-luxury clubs that do not receive revenue sharing must surrender their second-highest pick and $500K of international pool space to sign a qualified free agent. (Again, signing a second such free agent means forfeiting their second-highest remaining pick.) Non-luxury teams who also receive revenue sharing are required to forfeit their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent (and their remaining third-highest pick for additional qualified free agents).
There are similar structures in place for the team losing the free agent in question. A revenue-sharing club receives a compensatory pick either at the end of the first round (if the player signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money) between Competitive Balance Round B and round three (if he signs for under $50MM) in the following year’s draft. Non-luxury clubs who do not receive revenue sharing receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Luxury tax payors receive a compensatory pick between rounds four and five of the draft.
The relatively steep nature of the one-year offer and the risk of being “saddled” with a player that the club perhaps did not want to retain (but for whom they’d hoped to net a draft pick) typically lead to only a handful of players receiving the QO. Last year saw just seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Josh Hader — receive qualifying offers. All seven rejected them. The most recent examples of players accepting the one-year QO came on the heels of the 2022 season, when Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepted their $19.65MM qualifying offers from the Giants and Rangers, respectively.
There are a handful of slam-dunk QO candidates among this year’s crop of free agents. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will all assuredly receive a QO and are all overwhelmingly likely to reject in search of a multi-year deal. Other candidates to receive a QO include Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Walker, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim, and Nick Martinez, though not everyone from that group will ultimately receive one. Manaea, Wacha and Martinez all have opt-outs in their contracts they’re widely expected to exercise this offseason. Kim has an $8MM mutual option on his contract that he won’t exercise, although whether he receives a QO could hinge in part on the recovery timetable from his recent shoulder surgery, which is still not known.
Cave
There’s no way that Hoffman is considered for a QO, right?
Steve Adams
I doubt it. I briefly included him on the list of candidates since I do expect he’ll be the highest or second-highest paid reliever in free agency this winter, but it still feels like a reach to put down a one-year of this magnitude for him so I cut him like a minute after publish, ha. Wondered if I’d still get a quick comment on that though — kudos! Heh.
This one belongs to the Reds
I will be interested to see if Nick Martinez gets a QO after he opts out.
I think we all know the answer.
Steve Adams
I imagine he’d accept, but he pitched well enough this season to at least merit some light consideration. I think he’s less likely to get one than any of the other names I mentioned at the end there.
Armaments216
The Reds’ decision to extend a QO might also hinge on whether they think Martinez may ultimately sign elsewhere for less than $50M. As a team that receives revenue sharing, that has a big impact on the potential compensatory pick Cincy would receive.
TerryTurnbuckle
Soto is the only one worth 21.5. The others should feel lucky to get 20 especially Adames.
Steve Adams
If you feel that way, I think you’re going to do a spit-take when Adames eventually signs this winter.
This one belongs to the Reds
Agreed, Adames probably one of the few who will, most likely from a top eight revenue team.
Note: I would like the Reds to sign him just to keep him from killing us, though I know it will never happen. Elly, welcome to the outfield!
william-2
Adames is a nice piece to have. I think you are right about the state of the game and contracts these days, however. I think a nice piece is probably worth 20+ million in a world where the elite guys are making 30+ mill and more soon.
It is a nice time to be a player that can stick in the league a few years past FA.
Travis’ Wood
Adames is about to be so overpaid, he’s average at best going forward
Tom the ray fan
Top 8 names he said are almost a guarantee to get it, be dumb for a club not to offer. You get compensation if they leave and even if they accept its ultimately only a 1 year deal anyway.
Rally Goose
Why is it guaranteed? Isn’t giving the player a QO even a little bit disrespectful? That’s why the Dodgers didn’t QO Kershaw. I can see Soto going elsewhere if the Yankees tag him with a QO.
JoeBrady
Isn’t leaving more disrespectful than a team saying it wants to retain your services?
MacGromit
@TT
There’s a wide chasm between the words “should” and “will”.
I can’t see any of the top 8 player *not* getting $20M next year next year unless some extended deferred contract shenanigans happen.
Do you really think that Burnes isn’t worth $20M though at his age and with his consistency?
holecamels35
I think any of those potential candidates listed should take the offer immediately. I could see Kim declining possibly, I don’t think he’ll be worth his future contract, but someone will still offer it. Both sides should be pleased though if he just stays there for one more year on the QO. Do they have the money to pay him and Profar though?? Discount Profar is great, but full price? Not so much.
Same with those starting pitchers. Nice guys to get on one year deals, but quickly can go south on a multi year deal. I’d just keep trying the one year deals for pitchers because the’re a coin flip seemingly.
Rally Goose
Kim was a slam dunk before the injury but now I’m not so sure. Profar they might do it just because they like him so much and with Preller gutting the farm at the deadline having another draft pick in-hand to rebuild it with if he declines would be huge.
Old York
I think the QO should be somewhat linked to the WAR of a player as well. Teams could issue offers that reflect how much value the player has contributed, making the QO less risky for both the team and the player. It could also prevent situations where clubs are reluctant to extend a QO because they fear overpaying for marginal talent, while at the same time ensuring top-tier free agents are rewarded for their performance.
CardsFan57
The QO was intended to ensure that draft choices were only given for top players leaving through free agency.
Old York
@CardsFan57
That’s exactly why tying it to a player’s WAR could be beneficial. WAR is one of the best metrics we have for measuring overall player value. By adjusting the QO based on a player’s WAR, it would ensure that only the most impactful players—the ones who truly perform above replacement level—get a qualifying offer. It maintains the system’s original intent but makes it even more precise by linking compensation to actual on-field contributions.
This way, teams aren’t pressured into extending a QO to a player who doesn’t provide top-tier value, and at the same time, it better rewards truly elite players who deserve it. So, in a sense, this could actually refine and enhance the existing structure, still protecting the spirit of the QO system.
jbigz12
That’s nonsense. The elite players get QO’d already.
Old York
@jbigz12
So, you’d classify Joc Pederson & Martín Pérez were elite?
Okay…
CardsFan57
What is not nonsense is the fact that before the QO all teams losing a player to free agency received a draft pick. Yes, only elite players get a draft pick linked to them if they receive a QO. It’s also a one time deal. Players never get a second QO.
Again, the entire point of inventing the QO was to make sure only top players were linked to draft picks.
Old York
It’s not only elite players that get a draft pick linked to them. It’s any player that has not already received a qualifying offer previously in his career and That player spent the entire season on that team’s roster.
So, my point remains, do you think Joc & Martin were elite players?
CardsFan57
Name a player who had a draft pick attached to them without receiving a qualifying offer. As far as who deserves a qualifying offer, that’s for the team to decide. No one else gets a vote. We’re devolving into semantics here.
The fact still remains that the process was intended, not guaranteed, to make sure only top players had a draft pick attached to them.
jbigz12
So what your proposal is to not make Pérez and Pederson able to be QO’d for the full freight?
Top guys will get QO’d every time. Your system doesn’t help the top guys at all. It further hurts middle guys like Joc. The team didn’t have to extend that offer. They did and paid up. Why would the MLBPA want to give another concession to free agency for something that does not help the player. It makes their free agency less “free”.
CardsFan57
I don’t have a proposal. I’m simply pointing out the fact that the QO is working exactly they way it was intended to work.
Old York
Full freight? I literally said, it should be tied to their WAR, so if it’s low, they shouldn’t be linked to $21M if the team decides to do so.
Old York
I don’t see it that way but whatever…
CardsFan57
The point is your original proposal creates the possibility of any player receiving a qualifying offer. That’s exactly why the union negotiated the QO system. They don’t want that possibility.
Old York
@CardsFan57
I did not.
CardsFan57
I now think you meant a single WAR value to decide QO eligibility. I don’t like that. I’d rather teams keep the ability to decide who deserves a QO.
Non Roster Invitee
Fear or Bwar?
Old York
@Non Roster Invitee
Fear sounds intriguing.
Non Roster Invitee
LOL. Fwar or Bwar or maybe a combo of both.
Rally Goose
@Old York jbigz said all the elite players get QO’d. He did not say that all the players that get QO’d are elite.
Crash_n_burn
If San Diego offers Profar the qualifying offer he would be out of his mind to reject it.
Unless someone offers a long term deal before the deadline to accept or reject it.
harrycarey
Inflation is great for this but how many will it take it? Funny how just a few years ago it was $17M and that was considered a bit too much to pull the trigger.
CardsFan57
They are doing it by formula. The only way it doesn’t rise is if the average salary of the top 125 players stagnates.
rct
I think Manaea at this point is a lock to receive the QO. Mets would gladly bring him back if he accepted, so there’s no reason not to offer it. Severino probably not, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they worked out a short term deal with him.
StudWinfield
Even though a Severino QO is, in general, a borderline decision, the Mets needs to even field a rotation in ’25 makes him a more acceptable gamble to the them. 1/21 for Sevy won’t get in the way of them pursuing a Burnes, Fried or Snell and it will guarantee them depth.
BigV
I appreciate the education. I didn’t know how it worked
JoeBrady
I think Kim and O’Neill are near locks.
Kim should automatically get a 4-year offer, unless there is reason to believe the injury is career threatening. As a RS fan, I’d gladly give him $70M (3.5 years * $20M).
O’Neill is not nearly as talented, but the downside is very low for the RS. Despite the OF depth and prospects, we are still short on RH hitters. If he accepts, I would not be bothered at all.
Brooklyn1953
I’ll take it!
Blah blah blah
Roughly a 50% increase in a decade. At this rate will be $30 million in 2034…