Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
The service time figures included are not official. Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.
The projections:
Angels (12)
- Griffin Canning (5.075): $5.1MM
- Luis Rengifo (5.043): $5.8MM
- Taylor Ward (4.164): $9.2MM
- Patrick Sandoval (4.149): $5.9MM
- Jose Quijada (4.046): $1.1MM
- Brock Burke (4.045): $1.2MM
- Jose Suarez (4.022): $1.2MM
- Carson Fulmer (3.108): $1MM
- Jo Adell (3.085): $2.1MM
- Matt Thaiss (3.038): $1.3MM
- Mickey Moniak (3.027): $1.8MM
- Reid Detmers (2.159): $1.9MM
Astros (10)
- Framber Valdez (5.163): $17.8MM
- Kyle Tucker (5.079): $15.8MM
- Jose Urquidy (5.049): $3.75MM
- Mauricio Dubon (4.162): $4.6MM
- Luis Garcia (4.083): $1.875MM
- Bryan Abreu (4.022): $3.7MM
- Chas McCormick (4.000): $3.3MM
- Jake Meyers (3.044): $2.2MM
- Jeremy Pena (3.000): $4.4MM
- Penn Murfee (2.169): $800K
Athletics (5)
- Austin Adams (5.150): $1.7MM
- Miguel Andujar (5.053): $2.8MM
- Seth Brown (4.096): $3.8MM
- Brent Rooker (3.059): $5.1MM
- Dany Jimenez (2.162): $1MM
Blue Jays (10)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM
- Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM
- Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM
- Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM
- Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM
- Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM
- Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM
- Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM
- Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM
- Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM
Braves (6)
- Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
- Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
- Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
- Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
- Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
- Eli White (2.140): $800K
Brewers (10)
- Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM
- Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM
- Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout)
- Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM
- Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM
- Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM
- Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM
- William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM
- Nick Mears (3.022): $900K
- Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM
Cardinals (6)
- Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
- JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
- John King (3.145): $1.5MM
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
- Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
Cubs (14)
- Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
- Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
- Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
- Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
- Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
- Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
- Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
- Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
- Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
- Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
- Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
- Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
- Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Zac Gallen (5.100): $14.1MM
- A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.3MM
- Joe Mantiply (4.029): $1.6MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.076): $800K
- Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.1MM
- Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.6MM
Dodgers (9)
- Dustin May (5.059): $2.135MM
- Michael Kopech (5.041): $5.2MM
- Brusdar Graterol (4.167): $2.7MM
- Tony Gonsolin (4.152): $5.4MM
- Evan Phillips (4.136): $6.2MM
- Gavin Lux (4.114): $2.7MM
- Alex Vesia (4.078): $1.9MM
- Connor Brogdon (3.139): $800K
- Anthony Banda (3.135): $1.1MM
Giants (4)
- Mike Yastrzemski (5.128): $9.5MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (5.035): $4.7MM
- Tyler Rogers (5.034): $5.5MM
- Camilo Doval (3.071): $4.6MM
Guardians (9)
- Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
- Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
- James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
- Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
- Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
- Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
- Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
- Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM
Marlins (6)
- Jesus Luzardo (4.165): $6MM
- Anthony Bender (3.153): $1.4MM
- Jesus Sanchez (3.118): $3.2MM
- Braxton Garrett (2.168): $1.8MM
- Nick Fortes (2.149): $1.6MM
- Edward Cabrera (2.147): $2.2MM
Mariners (12)
- Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
- JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
- Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
- Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
- Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
- Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
- Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
- Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
- George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
Mets (8)
- Joey Lucchesi (5.112): $1.8MM
- Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
- Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
- Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
- David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
- Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
- Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
- Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM
Nationals (9)
- Tanner Rainey (5.127): $1.9MM
- Derek Law (5.081): $3MM
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.007): $1.8MM
- Kyle Finnegan (5.000): $8.6MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (3.142): $4.8MM
- Josiah Gray (3.075): $1.4MM
- Mason Thompson (3.046): $800K
- Riley Adams (3.005): $1.1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (3.000): $3.5MM
Orioles (15)
- Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
- Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
- Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
- Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option)
- Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
- Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
- Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
- Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
- Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
- Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
- Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
- Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Padres (8)
- Luis Arraez (5.121): $14.6MM
- Dylan Cease (5.089): $13.7MM
- Tyler Wade (5.058): $900K
- Michael King (5.004): $7.9MM
- Adrian Morejon (4.140): $1.8MM
- Jason Adam (4.132): $5.3MM
- Luis Patino (3.061): $800K
- Luis Campusano (2.144): $1.7MM
Phillies (9)
- Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
Pirates (9)
- Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
- David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
- Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
- Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
- Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
- Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
- Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
Rangers (5)
- Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): $10.7MM
- Jonah Heim (4.097): $4.8MM
- Dane Dunning (4.078): $4.4MM
- Josh Sborz (4.055): $1.3MM
- Leody Taveras (3.124): $4.3MM
Rays (12)
- Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
- Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
- Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
- Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
- Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
- Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
- Taylor Walls (3.092): $1.3MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
- Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
- Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
- Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM
Red Sox (3)
- Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
- Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
- Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM
Reds (10)
- Ty France (5.089): $8.6MM
- Tejay Antone (5.000): $1.1MM
- Santiago Espinal (4.149): 4MM
- Jake Fraley (4.097): $3.3MM
- Tyler Stephenson (4.056): $5.2MM
- Austin Wynns (4.017): $1.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (3.077): $800K
- Sam Moll (3.075): $1.1MM
- Alexis Diaz (3.000): $4.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (3.000): $2.2MM
Rockies (10)
- Dakota Hudson (5.141): $2.3MM
- Cal Quantrill (5.132): $9MM
- Austin Gomber (5.111): $5.6MM
- Brendan Rodgers (5.075): $5.5MM
- Jake Cave (5.071): $1.8MM
- Peter Lambert (4.083): $1.5MM
- Sam Hilliard (4.023): $1.7MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (3.148): $900K
- Justin Lawrence (2.167): $1MM
- Ryan Feltner (2.143): $2.6MM
Royals (10)
- Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
- Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
- Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
- Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
- Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM
- John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
- Carlos Hernandez (3.099): $1.2MM
- Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
- MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
- Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM
Tigers (11)
- Tarik Skubal (4.114): $8MM
- Casey Mize (4.111): $2MM (Tigers hold $3.1MM club option/$10K buyout)
- Jake Rogers (4.040): $2.5MM
- Will Vest (3.100): $1.4MM
- Zach McKinstry (3.099): $1.3MM
- Jason Foley (3.033): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (3.026): $3MM
- Akil Baddoo (3.003): $1.6MM
- Alex Lange (3.003): $1.3MM
- Andy Ibanez (2.170): $1.5MM
- Beau Brieske (2.134): $1.3MM
Twins (13)
- Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
- Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
- Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
- Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
- Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
- Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
- Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
- Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
- Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
- Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
White Sox (9)
- Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
- Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
- Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
- Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
- Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
- Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
- Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
Yankees (10)
- Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
- Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
- Nestor Cortes (5.094): $7.7MM
- Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
- Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
- JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
- Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
- Scott Effross (2.156): $900K
Our automatic Baseball-Reference linking tool isn’t working on this post at present, but we’ll keep trying or figure something else out.
Is Austin Warren of the Giants not eligible for arbitration yet?
Warren finished out the season with 2.127 years of service (by my count). There’s a decent chance that’ll qualify him, and he’d be a late addition to the list in that instance, as Matt alluded to in the intro:
“Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list.”
Given his limited workload in the majors — much of that service time was accrued on the injured list — he’ll probably be projected south of $1MM if he does reach S2 status.
I believe the cutoff will be 2.132
Thank you Steve. I missed that part of the article.
This really should be behind a paywall tbh.
You’re leaving literally DOZENS of dollars on the table.
King Floch is coming in hot on the paywall topic today! As I mentioned elsewhere, send me an email if you’d like to discuss, as the one attached to your account is not functional.
mlbtraderumors.com/contact
Evan Philips 6.2M and Alex Vesia 1.9M? Nah, thats crazy
Phillips has a 2.28 ERA/2.79 FIP/180 ERA+ in almost 200 appearances as a Dodger since 2021.
He’d easily get more than 1/$6.2 million on the open market.
Just skimming through the numbers Skubal at 8 million seems low especially for a Cy Young winner
They are paid exactly what their union agreed upon.
No. It’s exactly. When they signed their major league contract they had a pretty good idea what they would be paid until they reached 6 years of service time. No one forced them to sign. They could have found employment elsewhere. No one with free will is underpaid. Teachers and military seem like they aren’t paid enough to me but apparently people are willing to do the job so they are paid enough I guess. But those teachers and military are paid exactly what they agreed too. If not then you file complaints to get the $ that was agreed upon.
The system isn’t fixed. They could refuse to play. Players strike. Refuse to come back until they get everything they want. Or meet in the middle. If they didn’t get anything they found acceptable why are they playing? They could be replaced but if they are so underpaid oh well.
You are worth what someone is willing to pay you. No one is overpaid or underpaid. If there is it’s a mistake. Generally you are paid exactly what you agreed to accept for your work.
I’m not fanboy of anything either. If the owners feel like they aren’t getting enough $ they could not sign a labor agreement as well. Gotta think about them being underpaid.
Both parties agreed though. No one is over or under. It’s a very detailed agreement. Pretty clearly laid out and agreed upon by both sides.
No he’s not by my definition. Are you started? Owners and players both agreed that players can’t be free agents until 6 years of service time. He can’t be a free agent.
Hypothetical there is no service time. Paul Skenes is a free agent even. Players will be getting the same amount of $. Teams spend whatever they want. Skenes would get 40 50 60 million a year instead of league minimum. But the league minimum guys would be getting paid a lot less. The 35 year old would be getting paid a lot less. The pie would be the same size right? Just divided differently right? No. Wrong. Pittsburgh etc couldn’t outbid NY etc. All the good players would be in the largest cities. The pie would shrink because the number of consumers would shrink. Only 10 cities would have baseball teams. Rest of the country wouldn’t care. That’s why there is service time, arbitration, drafts etc. Without these the pie is much smaller. And both owners and players will always agree on 1 thing. The bigger the pie the better.
“Do you agree that Skubal would get much more on the open market?”
Obviously. I just replied saying as much. Skubal would get much more. Just numerous others would get less.
If Detroit planned to spend 50 million in free agency but they had to outbid every other team to get Skubal at 40 million a year. They would only spend 10. Skubal gets paid much more. But players in general get paid exactly the same. With current agreement Skubal gets 8 someone or 3 6 whatever summons get 42 million instead of 10.
The agreement isn’t to limit Skubals income this year. It’s so when he is a free agent he could get 200 300 whatever million. If you eliminate the small and mid markets he would only get who knows 60 100 million no idea but it wouldn’t be close to what it would be in our current agreement.
I did the best I could. If you don’t get it take some economics classes or watch some YouTube videos or something.
Like I said. I’m not a fanboy. Skubal could bake $5 dollars a game playing just because he loves baseball or 500 million. I don’t care what he makes. I got my own life to worry about.
“So, he’s currently underpaid relative to his market value. Correct? Teams would very happily pay more for Skenes than the $800K he’s making.”
No. He’s not on the market. He agreed not to be on the market until he has reached 6 years of service time. He will be paid exactly what he agreed upon.
Hypothetical there was no service time needed and he was a free agent he would be paid much more. But Soto Judge Harper etc etc would be paid much less because instead of 30 teams and markets of fans there would only be say 10. Less fans equals less revenue. Less revenue equals players making less $. Skenes would get more but average player salary would be much less. Skenes lifetime earnings assuming he stays healthy would be much less. More this year and next year. Much less over his career. Much much much less.
Yes players are underpaid in the first 6 years typically but that is by design and for purpose.
If it was a free market at that stage, teams would not be willing to invest in signing bonuses, development, minor league facilities, strength and training etc
It’s a moot point because that’s not how their salaries and contracts work. I get both sides though. Bad athletes are overpaid, ones who are constantly injured are, but like he said, less people can excel in their profession than more important and life saving ones.
If every player in the league was just open to auction, more than half the teams would fold because the rich teams would scoop everyone up and leave table scraps. Has to be a way for teams to keep players for a bit without paying out the nose for them.
Dusty and Hole have a solid understanding of it. Can’t help you anymore Dasha. I feel like I did alright job. Certainly put in the effort. Nothing more I can do. Try reading it again maybe?
Best example. 1 last try. Nfl rookies used to get huge signing bonuses. New labor agreement limited the rookie signing bonuses. Why? Because union members aren’t college football players they are nfl veterans. Rookie signing bonuses aren’t benefiting a single current union players. So rookie signing bonuses plummeted. NFL teams paid players just as much just the kids drafted out of college where no longer getting as much. Those kids weren’t underpaid though. They got paid exactly what the agreed upon. But the kids the year before got paid much much more. They weren’t overpaid though. Got exactly what they signed for in their contract.
No further discussion. I agree in a free for all market Skenes Skubal would be underpaid. Current market they aren’t. So you want other players to get paid less so they can get paid more. Ok that’s fine. I just don’t care who gets paid what. Very boring discussion imo.
And sure if revenue was shared equally so the Yankees and Pirates had the same exact amount of $ to compete with then they can have whatever system they want. Good luck getting the mega cities to share their $. Why would they want to do that.
Please don’t take things personally. I didn’t say you were boring. I shared how I view things. That’s simply all I have to say. I don’t have a argument to make. Pay Skubal 80 thousand or 80 million. I simply don’t care. I only replied to 1 person this entire article. Most members are thrilled to have YourDreamGM reply to them even once in their lifetime. What I have given you today is something you can tell your children and grandchildren about. You are welcome my new friend.
I never said I think player salaries are boring. I said the discussion with you about it was boring.
Unfortunately I entered it willingly. I must now contemplate my life.
Your view of the economics is skewed… Definitely agree that some economics classes are in order to better understand the complexities of the situation.
In an open market, where all players are free agents, the overall spending would clearly be higher. Premier League Football is closer to that model, and player wages are over 60% of revenues. In MLB that is under 50%. I doubt Skubal would be getting $40M, however, as the supply of talent would be much greater. Instead of a third of the talent pool getting the lions share of the total, it would be shared according to talent across the entire talent pool. Not clear to me that the bottom salaries would change dramatically, but even if they did they are a small fraction of the total.
Skubal did not negotiate his employment conditions, he was handed a “take it or leave it” deal that was negotiated between the union (in which he had just one vote) and the owners. The deal is ultimately in his favor, even if he is underpaid for now, as he is likely to reach free agency and get his share of the pie at that time. Lesser players with shorter careers never cash in – think Refsnyder for example. But even a bad deal can still beat the alternatives.
If a business offers uncompetitive wages, then the best talent will find jobs elsewhere. There are concerns that MLB is losing talent to other sports, though I doubt the salary structure is the major driver of that. Just making the point that it is possible to underpay your workers even if you find people to accept the jobs of their own free will.
@YourDream MLB players don’t have free will in their chosen profession for at least 6 years. As for when they reach free agency, yes by all means they are worth whatever someone is willing to pay them.
Prior to free agency though, these players rights are universally owned by one single franchise for many years. They do not have the right to seek employment with competing franchises in their chosen profession. To try and speak of MLB as tho it entirely a free market driven by supply and demand for player talent is unequivocally not true.
Yes they have collectively bargained and they have made a ton of gains since Curt Flood. The vast majority of those gains have been for veterans. The league has also shown a few times they re willing to go just about nuclear once they are entrenched in a position, the sport or the fans be damned if they re innocent casualties.
That said I do think the veterans have compromised at the expense of the young talent currently in the game and those to come time and time again. The pay structure is horribly skewed towards veterans aside from first and second round draft picks signing bonuses.
Do you agree that Skubal would get much more on the open market?
===============================
The players as a whole get exactly what they bargained for. That doesn’t mean that each individual player gets exactly what they should get paid.
I would think that goes without saying, and it is like that with every job in the world. You have old geezers making retirement plans on healthy salaries, and you have young college graduates rewiring your entire network at minimum wage.
So, some players are underpaid compared to their market value and others are overpaid compared to their market value. Correct?……… The unfair system is self-perpetuating.
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It took a long time, but that’s exactly right. The “players” are paid fairly, but some are overpaid and some are underpaid.
But the system is not unfair. Once you join a union, you are obliged to follow their rules. The players are going to get x%, and how they chop it up is largely up to them. The union could easily agree to say, having a max length on contracts of 5 years, in exchange for free agency after 5 years. That would create less disparity.
But they won’t do it.
I’d be in favor of
1) no draft. Everyone is a free agent
2) massively increased revenue sharing
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The union wouldn’t agree. FWIW, this is the same in a lot of unions. The long-time members will generally throw the newbies under the bus.
@Dasha, Yes, I agree, the current setup favors the stars who last long enough to still be strong when they cash in. It comes at the expense of those who have injury shortened careers, or lesser lights who have a few good years but fade before they hit free agency. I’m assuming Skubal will eventually cash in, but you are correct that isn’t a sure thing.
In an open market the valuations would come down a bit, though. Teams are happy to pay $10M+ per WAR for free agent talent, but your average team adds up to 35 WAR more or less. There isn’t enough money in the game for the average team to run a $350M payroll! Thus the cost of talent would drop significantly (and those $350M payrolls would be 100+ win teams as the money would go much farther).
as the supply of talent would be much greater.
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Sot on correct.
At the end of the day, the RS have a budget of $xxx. If they spent $40M on Skubal, that is $40M less they will spend on other players.
Or taking one step back, a guy like Monty gets paid $25M or so because of a very limited supply, not because of talent. If there were suddenly 25 guys like Money on the market, he wouldn’t get close to that.
Agreed. Based on comparisons between professional sports leagues, past and present, I believe that a “normal” fraction of revenues to spend on player payroll is around 60%. MLB holds that down through revenue sharing, luxury taxes, and the arbitration system. The players union has pushed on some of these points but has ultimately accepted the current system as preferable to an extended strike. And as others have noted, it is favorable to the geezers, who are the ones running things.
Joe, I think there needs to be some mechanism like a draft but I get your point. Absolutely on revenue sharing but I’d like to see two new rules about franchises:
1. If a team has 5 straight losing records and loses a total of over 450 games in those 5 seasons combined, the owners are out.
2. If a team fails to draw 1 million fans to their home stadium for 5 straight seasons, the team is moved to another city.
3. If both happen, the franchise is collapsed and a new team expansion team is started.
Details are sketchy here but you get the idea.
Dasha that lacks all business sense and reason
He only made $2.65M this year, which is a key reference point. I think he’ll be under $10M. Arbitration is great for teams.
Pop and Tate look like the only non-tenders for the Jays.
And 14 years doing this! Man I feel old.
Cubs have quite a few middling arb players that need to be moved or let go if they want to make a jump forward
Vladdy is getting pretty heavy… both in terms on salary and physique
Crochet’s injuries have kept his salary in the steal range, if he keeps up his health
I sure as hell hope the cubs aren’t dumb enough to give Patrick Wisdom 3mil dollars. They need to non tender him and let him sign with KBO or NPB. Or honestly the Savannah Banana league. He can he a vendor. I didn’t even know Colten Brewer was still with the cubs. Thought they fired him back in July.
Cards pick up all six. Good value for 5 solid+ players and a great closer in Helsley..
Luis Arraez is like Tony Gwynn, but remove the speed and defense. Very similar numbers through the same age. But, Gwynn had the speed to get extra base hits and play defense. Not to mention steal bases.
It’s a shame Arraez is lacking in those aspects of his game. I don’t see why he couldn’t be an average runner with passable defense at second. And I don’t accept padres roster build, he’s always been a poor 2b. Him at 1b or DH is a shame
Why doesn’t he simply run faster?
What I mean is that I think he could be a decent defender and acceptable runner with better conditioning.
Players add rpm, break, and velocity through specific offseason regimens, he could spend time focusing on his speed and defense.
His OAA prior to 2023 were around average. And the increased speed was based on an article about his routine.
“In the offseason, he hits for three hours each morning, then drinks a protein shake, lifts weights, eats some food, takes a siesta, and hits again until sundown. He learned this “self-optimization” routine from Nelson Cruz, one of the most feared hitters of the 2010s.”
Like pitcher focusing on upping velocity or rpm, I think he would do well with more workouts to increase speed.
But who knows maybe he’s just made slow
Unusual to add speed at his age. Typically that progression goes just one way.
Arraez is a serious non-tender candidate.
Jose Siri hit .187 and had more value than Arraez. Sometimes batting average is just an empty number. I can’t imagine anyone wanting Arraez on their team more than $10m per season.
Devin Williams signed a contract last off season which includes a 2025 team option for 10.5m w a 2.5m buyout.
Can’t see them triggering the opt out, just thought it was interesting how close the difference is.
Think they offer a counter with an extension before the option decision?
I’d be surprised if they have a similar projection to this. Looking at 300k in savings, maybe you could convince Devin he’d get slightly less, but it’s not much savings regardless.
Don’t think MA is eager to take that PR hit. I think they’re trading him anyway, and a few hundred k isn’t going to meaningfully change the return.
Isn’t it a $250k Buyout option?
Kelenic’s Arb number is very low, so I can’t image the Braves would consider non-tendering. That said, another extremely disappointing season for him. 2025 will be a make-or-break year for him, as the Arb increases will price him out if he struggles again.
I dunno. I could see them cutting loose everyone on that list other than Laureano and Lee. Laureano found whatever he lost once the Braves brought him up.
There’s a huge sunk cost in dumping Kelenic, but he was a terrible fit in that offense. A LHH version of Duvall.
As is, ATL has a crowded OF heading into 2025. harris, soler, kelenic, and at some point Acuna. With Ozuna getting the reps in at DH, I just dont see room for Laureano unless soler gets moved or kelenic gets optioned to AAA to start next season. Depending with the Braves decide to do with Minter, LHP Lee might be the only person that gets tendered besides Kelenic.
Nominate your favorite non-tender candidate.
Brendan Rogers? Andrew Vaughn?
I don’t mind the spirit of that comment. As a fan of a team (Blue Jays) that says it’s trying to win this year and might have a hard time attracting free agents and doesn’t have a lot of prospects to trade for help, I’m looking through this list for guys who might have uncomfortable salaries for their prospective teams that could motivate a trade or be available o. A bounce back pillow contract after a non tender.
For me, Bednar maybe? Willi Castro? I’d need to hear from fans of those teams about the feeling around those teams and players.
I don’t think I like the nonsense of this reply. In fact I am sure I don’t. As you should know, a lot of players on this list won’t be offered contracts. If you don’t care to guess which ones, that’s your privilege, but it is very much in the spirit of baseball fandom to pose the question if only because the non-tenders will become free agents.
I did not read this story as I refuse to read about money. Everything else, play on the field-roster moves, etc., I will read.
Have zero interest or time to read about salaries.
Not to say you shouldn’t like what you like. That’s totally fine. But for me, these projections help me understand the roster moves that are made or look forward to potential moves.
My favorite interest is reading people comment on things they claim to not care about.
Vlad Jr. is projected to make essentially the same amount as the other guys combined.
Can’t see Dylan Lee taking a million dollar hit. He was very effective as multiple Braves’ lefties went down.
Now I know why Pirates did not trade for Taylor Ward. Nutting was not going to pay that much in arbitration.
Has any agent (or GM for that matter) ever called Matt Swartz and asked for a more detailed description of his model?
If not, I find that strange unless they have and he doesn’t want to admit it. I know I wouldn’t unless my boss told me I had to be a more transparent member of the press. lol
Reds Fan….NO on France and Espinal
How can the Angels roll Canning out to pitch every five days? Got to know when to cut bait and move on. Maybe he would be more effective in another role???
Orioles platoon too much. Whenever Mouncastle settles, find a trade partner. Also, cut ties with O’Hearn.
Gunnar Henderson’s position is Hitter not SS. Too overly aggressive at SS. Before he physically disables himself, get him a 1b mitt. Immediately eliminates 1b platoon strategy. Mateo goes back to SS with Holliday getting reps to get acclimated before taking over fulltime.
Houck is a bargain at 4.5 mil!
Red Sox $13m projected for an entire class (of good players too) seems like a good place to be in when that’s added to only $105m payroll commitments next year ($138m CBT) and a good farm system. Seems like a lot of flexibility. Even with a few contributors departing. I know Red Sox fans typically live in the now and were probably disappointed in the season, but it looks like the team is set up well to make the next several years pretty good.
If Padres ownership wants to stay below CBT next season. And why would they want to exceed it after doing all they could this season to get under it, they probably trade Cease and Arraez.
There is a big difference between going over 3+ straight times then going over it once. Especially if they don’t go that far over it.
I don’t see the padres trading either of these dudes unless they aren’t in it at next year deadline.
Cease would be a priority keep. But both will test FA after next season. Maybe if they can move Matsui and W. Peralta. King they should lock up with extension.
Yeah I expect them both to go to free agency, and bough I could see the padres extending Arraez. His arb number is pretty close to what I think his value is.
I do agree king should be the top priority to extend.
His arb number is way ABOVE what I think his value is. The guy produced 1.0 WAR this year.
I’m curious where the 3.003 numbers for Lange and Baddoo came from. I have them below 3 years, and since they did not get 86 days of service this year, not eligible for arbitration. I’ve double and triple checked that and gotten second hand confirmation from somebody in the know that this is correct.
Also, the Super 2 Cutoff looks to be 2.132.
Surprised you never mentioned Paul Skenes in this. He is a Super Two player since he won the RoY. Or is it next year he qualifies for arbitration early? The rules can be confusing, but since he played more than 22% of the games and won RoY this year, I figured he’d see arbitration. Maybe I misunderstood the Super Two status guidelines. Someone explain it in dummy terms so maybe I can understand what I am missing here.
All but Biggio the Braves should pick up in my opinion. I don’t love Kelenic, but it’s cheap and he’s perfectly fine as a bench bat. Plus we technically spent insane cash to acquire him, so he owes us that. That said, if we did sign all this, our outfield would be a bit crowded, so I can see RL being let go more cost related than anything. I’d hate that but I’d tender him an offer. In fact, I’d try to offer him a 2 year deal with a lower AAV. Like 2 years $10.
Luis Arraez for $14.6MM, why would anyone do that?
Is this algorithm free for consult/use? Like a spreadsheet or something?
No, I like that being proprietary to MLBTR.