Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
The service time figures included are not official. Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.
The projections:
Angels (12)
- Griffin Canning (5.075): $5.1MM
- Luis Rengifo (5.043): $5.8MM
- Taylor Ward (4.164): $9.2MM
- Patrick Sandoval (4.149): $5.9MM
- Jose Quijada (4.046): $1.1MM
- Brock Burke (4.045): $1.2MM
- Jose Suarez (4.022): $1.2MM
- Carson Fulmer (3.108): $1MM
- Jo Adell (3.085): $2.1MM
- Matt Thaiss (3.038): $1.3MM
- Mickey Moniak (3.027): $1.8MM
- Reid Detmers (2.159): $1.9MM
Astros (10)
- Framber Valdez (5.163): $17.8MM
- Kyle Tucker (5.079): $15.8MM
- Jose Urquidy (5.049): $3.75MM
- Mauricio Dubon (4.162): $4.6MM
- Luis Garcia (4.083): $1.875MM
- Bryan Abreu (4.022): $3.7MM
- Chas McCormick (4.000): $3.3MM
- Jake Meyers (3.044): $2.2MM
- Jeremy Pena (3.000): $4.4MM
- Penn Murfee (2.169): $800K
Athletics (5)
- Austin Adams (5.150): $1.7MM
- Miguel Andujar (5.053): $2.8MM
- Seth Brown (4.096): $3.8MM
- Brent Rooker (3.059): $5.1MM
- Dany Jimenez (2.162): $1MM
Blue Jays (10)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM
- Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM
- Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM
- Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM
- Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM
- Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM
- Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM
- Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM
- Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM
- Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM
Braves (6)
- Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
- Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
- Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
- Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
- Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
- Eli White (2.140): $800K
Brewers (10)
- Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM
- Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM
- Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM
- Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM
- Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM
- Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM
- Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM
- William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM
- Nick Mears (3.022): $900K
- Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM
Cardinals (6)
- Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
- JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
- John King (3.145): $1.5MM
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
- Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
Cubs (14)
- Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
- Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
- Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
- Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
- Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
- Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
- Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
- Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
- Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
- Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
- Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
- Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
- Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Zac Gallen (5.100): $14.1MM
- A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.3MM
- Joe Mantiply (4.029): $1.6MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.076): $800K
- Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.1MM
- Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.6MM
Dodgers (9)
- Dustin May (5.059): $2.135MM
- Michael Kopech (5.041): $5.2MM
- Brusdar Graterol (4.167): $2.7MM
- Tony Gonsolin (4.152): $5.4MM
- Evan Phillips (4.136): $6.2MM
- Gavin Lux (4.114): $2.7MM
- Alex Vesia (4.078): $1.9MM
- Connor Brogdon (3.139): $800K
- Anthony Banda (3.135): $1.1MM
Giants (4)
- Mike Yastrzemski (5.128): $9.5MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (5.035): $4.7MM
- Tyler Rogers (5.034): $5.5MM
- Camilo Doval (3.071): $4.6MM
Guardians (9)
- Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
- Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
- James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
- Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
- Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
- Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
- Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
- Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM
Marlins (6)
- Jesus Luzardo (4.165): $6MM
- Anthony Bender (3.153): $1.4MM
- Jesus Sanchez (3.118): $3.2MM
- Braxton Garrett (2.168): $1.8MM
- Nick Fortes (2.149): $1.6MM
- Edward Cabrera (2.147): $2.2MM
Mariners (12)
- Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
- JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
- Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
- Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
- Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
- Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
- Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
- Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
- George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
Mets (8)
- Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
- Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
- Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
- David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
- Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
- Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
- Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM
Nationals (9)
- Tanner Rainey (5.127): $1.9MM
- Derek Law (5.081): $3MM
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.007): $1.8MM
- Kyle Finnegan (5.000): $8.6MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (3.142): $4.8MM
- Josiah Gray (3.075): $1.4MM
- Mason Thompson (3.046): $800K
- Riley Adams (3.005): $1.1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (3.000): $3.5MM
Orioles (15)
- Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
- Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
- Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
- Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM
- Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
- Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
- Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
- Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
- Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
- Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
- Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
- Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Padres (8)
- Luis Arraez (5.121): $14.6MM
- Dylan Cease (5.089): $13.7MM
- Tyler Wade (5.058): $900K
- Michael King (5.004): $7.9MM
- Adrian Morejon (4.140): $1.8MM
- Jason Adam (4.132): $5.3MM
- Luis Patino (3.061): $800K
- Luis Campusano (2.144): $1.7MM
Phillies (9)
- Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
Pirates (9)
- Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
- David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
- Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
- Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
- Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
- Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
- Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
Rangers (5)
- Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): $10.7MM
- Jonah Heim (4.097): $4.8MM
- Dane Dunning (4.078): $4.4MM
- Josh Sborz (4.055): $1.3MM
- Leody Taveras (3.124): $4.3MM
Rays (12)
- Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
- Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
- Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
- Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
- Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
- Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
- Taylor Walls (3.092): $1.3MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
- Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
- Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
- Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM
Red Sox (3)
- Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
- Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
- Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM
Reds (10)
- Ty France (5.089): $8.6MM
- Tejay Antone (5.000): $1.1MM
- Santiago Espinal (4.149): 4MM
- Jake Fraley (4.097): $3.3MM
- Tyler Stephenson (4.056): $5.2MM
- Austin Wynns (4.017): $1.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (3.077): $800K
- Sam Moll (3.075): $1.1MM
- Alexis Diaz (3.000): $4.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (3.000): $2.2MM
Rockies (10)
- Dakota Hudson (5.141): $2.3MM
- Cal Quantrill (5.132): $9MM
- Austin Gomber (5.111): $5.6MM
- Brendan Rodgers (5.075): $5.5MM
- Jake Cave (5.071): $1.8MM
- Peter Lambert (4.083): $1.5MM
- Sam Hilliard (4.023): $1.7MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (3.148): $900K
- Justin Lawrence (2.167): $1MM
- Ryan Feltner (2.143): $2.6MM
Royals (10)
- Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
- Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
- Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
- Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
- Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM
- John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
- Carlos Hernandez (3.099): $1.2MM
- Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
- MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
- Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM
Tigers (11)
- Tarik Skubal (4.114): $8MM
- Casey Mize (4.111): $2MM
- Jake Rogers (4.040): $2.5MM
- Will Vest (3.100): $1.4MM
- Zach McKinstry (3.099): $1.3MM
- Jason Foley (3.033): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (3.026): $3MM
- Akil Baddoo (3.003): $1.6MM
- Alex Lange (3.003): $1.3MM
- Andy Ibanez (2.170): $1.5MM
- Beau Brieske (2.134): $1.3MM
Twins (14)
- Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
- Diego Castillo (5.001): $1MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM
- Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
- Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
- Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
- Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
- Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
- Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
- Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
- Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
- Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
White Sox (9)
- Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
- Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
- Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
- Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
- Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
- Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
- Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
Yankees (10)
- Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
- Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
- Nestor Cortes (5.094): $7.7MM
- Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
- Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
- JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
- Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
- Scott Effross (2.156): $900K
Tim Dierkes
Our automatic Baseball-Reference linking tool isn’t working on this post at present, but we’ll keep trying or figure something else out.
King Floch
This really should be behind a paywall tbh.
You’re leaving literally DOZENS of dollars on the table.
Tim Dierkes
King Floch is coming in hot on the paywall topic today! As I mentioned elsewhere, send me an email if you’d like to discuss, as the one attached to your account is not functional.
mlbtraderumors.com/contact
niel.marshal
Evan Philips 6.2M and Alex Vesia 1.9M? Nah, thats crazy
DashaToushu
@Niel
Chump change for LA. I’d expect them to retain both.
King Floch
Phillips has a 2.28 ERA/2.79 FIP/180 ERA+ in almost 200 appearances as a Dodger since 2021.
He’d easily get more than 1/$6.2 million on the open market.
DashaToushu
@KingFloch
Phillips struggled a bit this year – BB% up, K% down. But, yeah, easily worth more on the open market
geotheo
Just skimming through the numbers Skubal at 8 million seems low especially for a Cy Young winner
DashaToushu
@geo
Because, despite all the grumbling about players being overpaid. They are, for the most part, massively underpaid
YourDreamGM
They are paid exactly what their union agreed upon.
DashaToushu
@DGM
And they are vastly underpaid
The system began fixed against them. The union can’t just magically reverse a century of history.
YourDreamGM
No. It’s exactly. When they signed their major league contract they had a pretty good idea what they would be paid until they reached 6 years of service time. No one forced them to sign. They could have found employment elsewhere. No one with free will is underpaid. Teachers and military seem like they aren’t paid enough to me but apparently people are willing to do the job so they are paid enough I guess. But those teachers and military are paid exactly what they agreed too. If not then you file complaints to get the $ that was agreed upon.
The system isn’t fixed. They could refuse to play. Players strike. Refuse to come back until they get everything they want. Or meet in the middle. If they didn’t get anything they found acceptable why are they playing? They could be replaced but if they are so underpaid oh well.
You are worth what someone is willing to pay you. No one is overpaid or underpaid. If there is it’s a mistake. Generally you are paid exactly what you agreed to accept for your work.
DashaToushu
@DGM
“You are worth what someone is willing to pay you”
Teams would absolutely be willing to pay Skubal more than $8 million next year. He’d get, at absolute minimum, 3 times that.
He’s underpaid
He’s underpaid per YOUR definition.
YourDreamGM
I’m not fanboy of anything either. If the owners feel like they aren’t getting enough $ they could not sign a labor agreement as well. Gotta think about them being underpaid.
Both parties agreed though. No one is over or under. It’s a very detailed agreement. Pretty clearly laid out and agreed upon by both sides.
DashaToushu
@DGM
Do you agree that Skubal would get much more on the open market?
YourDreamGM
No he’s not by my definition. Are you started? Owners and players both agreed that players can’t be free agents until 6 years of service time. He can’t be a free agent.
DashaToushu
@Dream
If the Tigers released him and he were a free agent in 2025, how much do you think he would get?
YourDreamGM
Hypothetical there is no service time. Paul Skenes is a free agent even. Players will be getting the same amount of $. Teams spend whatever they want. Skenes would get 40 50 60 million a year instead of league minimum. But the league minimum guys would be getting paid a lot less. The 35 year old would be getting paid a lot less. The pie would be the same size right? Just divided differently right? No. Wrong. Pittsburgh etc couldn’t outbid NY etc. All the good players would be in the largest cities. The pie would shrink because the number of consumers would shrink. Only 10 cities would have baseball teams. Rest of the country wouldn’t care. That’s why there is service time, arbitration, drafts etc. Without these the pie is much smaller. And both owners and players will always agree on 1 thing. The bigger the pie the better.
DashaToushu
@DGM
“Skenes would get 40 50 60 million a year instead of league minimum”
So, he’s currently underpaid relative to his market value. Correct? Teams would very happily pay more for Skenes than the $800K he’s making.
The rest of your comment is conflating too many things.
YourDreamGM
“Do you agree that Skubal would get much more on the open market?”
Obviously. I just replied saying as much. Skubal would get much more. Just numerous others would get less.
If Detroit planned to spend 50 million in free agency but they had to outbid every other team to get Skubal at 40 million a year. They would only spend 10. Skubal gets paid much more. But players in general get paid exactly the same. With current agreement Skubal gets 8 someone or 3 6 whatever summons get 42 million instead of 10.
The agreement isn’t to limit Skubals income this year. It’s so when he is a free agent he could get 200 300 whatever million. If you eliminate the small and mid markets he would only get who knows 60 100 million no idea but it wouldn’t be close to what it would be in our current agreement.
I did the best I could. If you don’t get it take some economics classes or watch some YouTube videos or something.
Like I said. I’m not a fanboy. Skubal could bake $5 dollars a game playing just because he loves baseball or 500 million. I don’t care what he makes. I got my own life to worry about.
YourDreamGM
“So, he’s currently underpaid relative to his market value. Correct? Teams would very happily pay more for Skenes than the $800K he’s making.”
No. He’s not on the market. He agreed not to be on the market until he has reached 6 years of service time. He will be paid exactly what he agreed upon.
Hypothetical there was no service time needed and he was a free agent he would be paid much more. But Soto Judge Harper etc etc would be paid much less because instead of 30 teams and markets of fans there would only be say 10. Less fans equals less revenue. Less revenue equals players making less $. Skenes would get more but average player salary would be much less. Skenes lifetime earnings assuming he stays healthy would be much less. More this year and next year. Much less over his career. Much much much less.
DashaToushu
@Dream
“Obviously. I just replied saying as much. Skubal would get much more. Just numerous others would get less.”
So, some players are underpaid compared to their market value and others are overpaid compared to their market value. Correct?
“If you don’t get it take some economics classes or watch some YouTube videos or something.”
Don’t worry. I get it
That’s a big part of the reason that so many players are underpaid.
Since players like, I dunno, Adames was underpaid for 6 years, he’s not going to be willing to take less now that’s he’s a free agent so that Skenes can be paid fairly. The unfair system is self-perpetuating.
Dustyslambchops23
Yes players are underpaid in the first 6 years typically but that is by design and for purpose.
If it was a free market at that stage, teams would not be willing to invest in signing bonuses, development, minor league facilities, strength and training etc
holecamels35
It’s a moot point because that’s not how their salaries and contracts work. I get both sides though. Bad athletes are overpaid, ones who are constantly injured are, but like he said, less people can excel in their profession than more important and life saving ones.
If every player in the league was just open to auction, more than half the teams would fold because the rich teams would scoop everyone up and leave table scraps. Has to be a way for teams to keep players for a bit without paying out the nose for them.
YourDreamGM
Dusty and Hole have a solid understanding of it. Can’t help you anymore Dasha. I feel like I did alright job. Certainly put in the effort. Nothing more I can do. Try reading it again maybe?
NoSaint
Pop and Tate look like the only non-tenders for the Jays.
And 14 years doing this! Man I feel old.
Butter Biscuits
Cubs have quite a few middling arb players that need to be moved or let go if they want to make a jump forward
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Vladdy is getting pretty heavy… both in terms on salary and physique
The Convoluted Universe
Crochet’s injuries have kept his salary in the steal range, if he keeps up his health
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
I sure as hell hope the cubs aren’t dumb enough to give Patrick Wisdom 3mil dollars. They need to non tender him and let him sign with KBO or NPB. Or honestly the Savannah Banana league. He can he a vendor. I didn’t even know Colten Brewer was still with the cubs. Thought they fired him back in July.