While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
No-Doubters
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.
Likely Recipients
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.
The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.
Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.
The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.
Long Shots
- Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)
- Ha-Seong Kim (Padres)
- Tyler O’Neill (Red Sox)
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
- Gleyber Torres (Yankees)
It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.
Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.
O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.
Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.
At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.
Ineligible
Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.
BlueSkies_LA
I’d rate Teo Hernandez as a QO lock. The downside is practically nonexistent.
'Tang It
Right, unless I’m wrong, they could just trade him if he accepts too. I don’t know why they would, but it seems illogical to not make the offer.
johnsilver
Well, I’d say the downside would be his glove and he has to maintain the offense to have the value, same if/when he signs a LT deal elsewhere.
As I was reminded before by Dodger fans.. Ohtani will continue to have a lock on DH for years in LA when not pitching, so won’t be anyplace to hide teoscar.
BlueSkies_LA
Granted he isn’t the most graceful outfielder, but isn’t like he’s a fencepost with a glove.
CleaverGreene
And I would say that Christian Walker is not a lock. It’s probable and the threat of getting tagged with it might force a 3 year extension, but it’s not a lock IMO..
JoeBrady
I assume TON will get one. It would be more borderline if he were a lefty, but we already need more righty hitting. If he leaves, we’d still have to acquire a righty bat. And I think someone will offer him in the neighborhood of $45M/3.
KingKen
I don’t see him being offered one. He simply doesn’t bring enough to the table to warrant chancing him accepting.
Salvi
“chancing him accepting”
That would be fine for the Red Sox. A one year contract for a team that desperately needs his profile in the lineup. I think he will get offered the QO, simply because of the perfect match.
KingKen
No it wouldn’t be fine. They’re already vastly overpaying their DH for what they’re getting. They don’t need another such overpay. Just because they can spend money doesn’t mean they should piss it away just for the hell of it.
O’Neill doesn’t provide all that much. The 3 separate weeks of insane production when he mashes a ton of solo HRs doesn’t offset the rest of the season where he does nothing much of value offensively.
Lanidrac
How is it possible to rack up a 131 wRC+ with 31 HRs by doing most of his offensive damage in just 3 weeks?! Not to mention his speed and defense. The guy is a true 5-tool player!
It’s just that he’s injury prone, although that could very well be the reason that he doesn’t get a QO.
Inside Out
No chance
Pads Fans
Profar will sign for a total over a 3 year deal for about the QO amount.
solaris602
Profar and the Padres are like Liz Taylor and Richard Burton. There will be some posturing, but when all is said and done he’ll return.
Brew’88
except on a deserted island, AJ would pick Jurickson over Liz
bravesfan79
Max Fried??
bravesfan79
Position players.. oops
norcalblue
For multiple reasons, the Dodgers will happily give Teo a qualifying offer. Some team is going to give him 3-4 years, close to the AAV he is seeking. And that might be an underestimation of what he will get. It’s my sense that the Dodgers, at the very most, would give him two years. Of course, if they win the World Series, there could be a rosy glow/Thank you offer that would surprise everyone. I doubt it though.
jbigz12
Doubt they bring him back if/when he declines the QO. Feels like Rushing is going to get a look along with their usual shuffle of multi-position players.
Old York
None of them seem to be a lock for a QO. Mostly overvalued.
pepenas34
Teo is a locked QO, he earned more this year. while Santander has earned less than 25MM in 8 seasons. Plus I think he wants to stay one more year with this very good team and don’t have attached the QO on the back that could limit his market. (the down side is he had a good platform year)
Teo can also accept the QO just to stay with the team.
TerryTurnbuckle
What a weak class. Soto is the only difference maker and he will fall off the cliff in less than 3 years.
Chicken In Philly?
Yes, at the ripe age of 28, Soto will cease to be an amazing ball player. Great take…
jbigz12
Santander will immediately decline. He can get $21MM for next year and get himself some downside risk for another year or two if he opts out. I don’t see a way Hernández or Santander doesn’t decline.
l9ydodger
Offer Teo the QO. If he accepts and hopefully Rushing shows he’s ready to play left field in spring training, then the outfield is Rushing in left, Edman in center and Teo in right. Keep Pages’ as 4th outfielder along with K. Hernandez as a utility man. That lets Betts return to 2B. Lux, and some combo of another player on the 40 man roster and a prospect for a S.P. or a young & promising third baseman.
C Yards Jeff
Orioles need a RH bat. Torres tempting? Right side of 30, tons of playoff run, respectable K rate. But oh that defense or lack there of.
Mikenmn
At a good price, he’s useful. The question is $+Length. I don’t see the Yankees doing a QO–and I don’t see Torres cashing in over it. Maybe a team offers 3/$36 figuring he’s only 27, so at least they don’t get age-related decline
sultan of swat
Where would u put him though?
C Yards Jeff
He’s an everyday player who plays 2b so plays 2b everyday. Holliday on the move? Westburg stays as do inexpensive back ups Mateo and Urias.
Brew’88
The narrative by writers about the Padres lacking spending power in 2025 given that they reset the CBT in 2024 is a curious thing.
Gary R
Is it me or does anybody else think that a person who hits .240 is a great player? I referred to Mr. O’Neill.
Lanidrac
Considering his wRC+ was 131 while also being fast and playing good defense, then yes, he is. He just needs to stay on the field more often.
CP77
No Max Fried?!
Lanidrac
Even if the Cardinals weren’t cutting payroll and didn’t have in-house options ready to replace him at 1B, there’s no way they’d give Goldschmidt a QO. Nobody thinks he’s going to be worth $21M next year! I suppose it’s possible for him to rebound that much, but it’s extremely unlikely at his age.