While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
No-Doubters
- Willy Adames (Brewers)
- Pete Alonso (Mets)
- Alex Bregman (Astros)
- Anthony Santander (Orioles)
- Juan Soto (Yankees)
There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.
Likely Recipients
- Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.
The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.
Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.
The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.
Long Shots
- Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)
- Ha-Seong Kim (Padres)
- Tyler O’Neill (Red Sox)
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
- Gleyber Torres (Yankees)
It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.
Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.
O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.
Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.
At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.
Ineligible
Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.
I’d rate Teo Hernandez as a QO lock. The downside is practically nonexistent.
Right, unless I’m wrong, they could just trade him if he accepts too. I don’t know why they would, but it seems illogical to not make the offer.
Well, I’d say the downside would be his glove and he has to maintain the offense to have the value, same if/when he signs a LT deal elsewhere.
As I was reminded before by Dodger fans.. Ohtani will continue to have a lock on DH for years in LA when not pitching, so won’t be anyplace to hide teoscar.
Granted he isn’t the most graceful outfielder, but isn’t like he’s a fencepost with a glove.
Zero chance Teoscar accepts the QO.
Exactly. If the Dodgers want him back on a longer term contract the QO gives them the inside track. If not they get the comp pick. Worst case (and least likely scenario) they hold onto a real contributor and great teammate for another year at below market,
And I would say that Christian Walker is not a lock. It’s probable and the threat of getting tagged with it might force a 3 year extension, but it’s not a lock IMO..
4.3 bWAR season, hasn’t been worse than 2.1 bWAR since 2019, nothing especially lucky happened in the context of his career in 2024, he’s still pretty fast. Terrible year in the OF, though, after 5 very average years acc to Statcast.
An absolute lock to sign somewhere for more, given where the Dodgers would get the pick if he leaves. After the 4th round, iirc, so that won’t stop anyone interested.
4/60m isn’t out of the question for TH. 3/60m, maybe. Ozuna got 4/64m after three seasons not as good, albeit an important 2 years younger.
TH should be able to do much better than 4/60.
I assume TON will get one. It would be more borderline if he were a lefty, but we already need more righty hitting. If he leaves, we’d still have to acquire a righty bat. And I think someone will offer him in the neighborhood of $45M/3.
I don’t see him being offered one. He simply doesn’t bring enough to the table to warrant chancing him accepting.
“chancing him accepting”
That would be fine for the Red Sox. A one year contract for a team that desperately needs his profile in the lineup. I think he will get offered the QO, simply because of the perfect match.
No it wouldn’t be fine. They’re already vastly overpaying their DH for what they’re getting. They don’t need another such overpay. Just because they can spend money doesn’t mean they should piss it away just for the hell of it.
O’Neill doesn’t provide all that much. The 3 separate weeks of insane production when he mashes a ton of solo HRs doesn’t offset the rest of the season where he does nothing much of value offensively.
How is it possible to rack up a 131 wRC+ with 31 HRs by doing most of his offensive damage in just 3 weeks?! Not to mention his speed and defense. The guy is a true 5-tool player!
It’s just that he’s injury prone, although that could very well be the reason that he doesn’t get a QO.
TON had 4 months of 5 or more HRs, so 4 months >>> 3 weeks.
I’d be hesitant to give a guy 21M$ when he hit .209 this past season against righties (a sub .700 OPS in 70% of his PA’s) and was playing on a ~6M$ contract. Could just as easily see a year over year drop like he had in ’21/’22.
No chance
The Red Sox aren’t going to spend all their available money anyways. O’Neill would likely replace Refsnyder on the roster (with Anthony coming up), but could also make it easier for them to trade Abreu.
$21M is a lot of money, but he clearly makes them a better team. And it is a lot less money than it would cost to sign Teoscar.
Profar will sign for a total over a 3 year deal for about the QO amount.
Profar and the Padres are like Liz Taylor and Richard Burton. There will be some posturing, but when all is said and done he’ll return.
except on a deserted island, AJ would pick Jurickson over Liz
3 years and about 9M$ per would be my guess – maybe a player opt out after the first season (if he repeats can make a lot more money).
Maybe 2 years at a slightly higher AAV. Or a player opt out after the first season too.
For a player turning 32 with a 3 and 4 WAR season out of his last three seasons?
He’ll get twice that.
I highly doubt it, you’re talking about a guy who had to settle for a 1M$ contract last off-season.
Max Fried??
Position players.. oops
braves – Yeah if it was all inclusive I definitely would have said where is Pivetta.
For multiple reasons, the Dodgers will happily give Teo a qualifying offer. Some team is going to give him 3-4 years, close to the AAV he is seeking. And that might be an underestimation of what he will get. It’s my sense that the Dodgers, at the very most, would give him two years. Of course, if they win the World Series, there could be a rosy glow/Thank you offer that would surprise everyone. I doubt it though.
Doubt they bring him back if/when he declines the QO. Feels like Rushing is going to get a look along with their usual shuffle of multi-position players.
None of them seem to be a lock for a QO. Mostly overvalued.
Teo is a locked QO, he earned more this year. while Santander has earned less than 25MM in 8 seasons. Plus I think he wants to stay one more year with this very good team and don’t have attached the QO on the back that could limit his market. (the down side is he had a good platform year)
Teo can also accept the QO just to stay with the team.
QO isn’t going to limit Santander or Teo’s market.
What a weak class. Soto is the only difference maker and he will fall off the cliff in less than 3 years.
Yes, at the ripe age of 28, Soto will cease to be an amazing ball player. Great take…
Philly – He posts ridiculous negative stuff like that all the time, attention seeker.
Santander will immediately decline. He can get $21MM for next year and get himself some downside risk for another year or two if he opts out. I don’t see a way Hernández or Santander doesn’t decline.
Offer Teo the QO. If he accepts and hopefully Rushing shows he’s ready to play left field in spring training, then the outfield is Rushing in left, Edman in center and Teo in right. Keep Pages’ as 4th outfielder along with K. Hernandez as a utility man. That lets Betts return to 2B. Lux, and some combo of another player on the 40 man roster and a prospect for a S.P. or a young & promising third baseman.
Orioles need a RH bat. Torres tempting? Right side of 30, tons of playoff run, respectable K rate. But oh that defense or lack there of.
At a good price, he’s useful. The question is $+Length. I don’t see the Yankees doing a QO–and I don’t see Torres cashing in over it. Maybe a team offers 3/$36 figuring he’s only 27, so at least they don’t get age-related decline
Where would u put him though?
He’s an everyday player who plays 2b so plays 2b everyday. Holliday on the move? Westburg stays as do inexpensive back ups Mateo and Urias.
Or Holliday stays if Gunnar moves to 1st. Mateo goes back to SS until Holliday is ready to take over. Goal. Consistent play. No more platooning around the infield.
O’s don’t need another infielder except maybe a first baseman if they trade Mountcastle and dont like Mayo there. Tyler O’Neill or someone similar as a platoon player in the outfield makes more sense. Or they could go after Teoscar instead, though that seems unlikely. It’ll be interesting to see what they do since I think they are going to try to compete to keep Corbin Burnes or maybe bid on another top line starter.
I like Tyler and Teoscar options. Both those vets wouldn’t have an issue with LF wall when hitting. Only drawback is that they are 30% k rate guys. I’m on the fence here.
I’d cut ties with Mouncastle and O’Hearn in favor of an everyday guy at 1b. To me, that’s Gunnar. FO is getting too cute with all this platooning action. Time is now to commit to everyday infielders. Westburg at 3rd, Torres at 2b, Gunnar at 1b and Mateo bridges Birds to Holliday at SS. It’s quite the gamble defensively but these guys will hut in pressure situations.
I like keeping Burnes. TOR guy. 2 thru 5 starters Birds are OK and will get even stronger when TJ guys get back. Bullpen is a crap shoot every year for every team.
41 YEARs since my Os have even had a sniff at WS play. Let’s go.
The narrative by writers about the Padres lacking spending power in 2025 given that they reset the CBT in 2024 is a curious thing.
I think it’s due to the loss of owner Peter Seidler that might be why they think so.
Is it me or does anybody else think that a person who hits .240 is a great player? I referred to Mr. O’Neill.
Considering his wRC+ was 131 while also being fast and playing good defense, then yes, he is. He just needs to stay on the field more often.
think that a person who hits .240 is a great player?
=======================
The question makes no sense, since no one ever referred to O’Neill as a great player
Is it me or does anybody else think that a person who hits .240 is a great player?
_______________
Um…huh?
No Max Fried?!
This was for position players only
Even if the Cardinals weren’t cutting payroll and didn’t have in-house options ready to replace him at 1B, there’s no way they’d give Goldschmidt a QO. Nobody thinks he’s going to be worth $21M next year! I suppose it’s possible for him to rebound that much, but it’s extremely unlikely at his age.
Alonso has a 150 million offer from the Mets. Getting 9 figures isn’t a question.
@metsin4 Currently, on the table?
He really doesn’t.
Alonso is probably going to have the more intriguing free agent situations this offseason. Soto will blow everyone away in his deal, but not much intrigue other than which big market team pays him. But Alonso could easily be open for a lot of teams if the Mets try to lowball him.
If the Mets try to lowball, I think everyone has to keep an eye on the Astros (1B/DH) or the scary to think about Braves (DH). Reason is due to regional closeness to Pete’s home, consistent winning, and potential need/mutual match.
Ozuna is going to be the Braves DH. No need for Alonso there.
Sean Manea will also receive a QO from the Mets. I’m guessing he wasn’t included because of his player option but he’s certainly gonna decline that.
this article was position-player only.
Oh duh lol, I read the entire thing and somehow overlooked that completely
Profar had a great season, it wouldn’t shock me to see him get a QO. It’s just a 1 year deal, another team, including the padres will try to sign him to a multi year deal. Hes prob worth 2/40 right now anyways as crazy as that sounds
After seeing Gleyber Torres surge in August and September hitting .306/.375/.418 and now through the playoffs with .297/.400/.432, I think the Yankees should Q.O. him. He’ll get more guaranteed money in free agency but will it be enough for him after a down year? If he accepts, that buys the Yankees more time until Peraza or Vivas is ready to take over 2B duties.
Torres’ early season struggles were mental yet if he finds the same consistency like he’s having for the past several months for next season, it may be worth the gamble for $21MM for a team like the Yankees. The heavy–lifting can then focus on resigning Soto, a new first baseman, and some relievers.
This favors the Yankees, but why would Gleyber settle for essentially a 1-year deal for higher AAV than he can get, when he could secure a multi-year deal from someone? Gleyber is in the business of taking care of himself – not voluntarily being a stopgap for replacements when he can be more valued to another team.
Even if the Yankees offer the QO, if Gleyber and his agent see the opportunity to secure a multi-year deal elsewhere, they will pursue that…and should do so.
Agree with everything you said. Offer him the Q.O. and take the draft pick. Anthony labeled Gleyber as a Q.O. longshot but I’m not so sure that he is.
They wouldn’t get a draft pick. His contract wouldn’t be over 50 million in total.
He’s 27, healthy, and survived playing in NY. I’ll put good money on his deal being way over $50MM.
Why won’t his contract be over 50M$?
Minimum 4 years and 15M$ per…could be a lot more.
He’s projected to get a 3 year 22 million contract. Do you really want to make that bet?
What are you talking about? He made 14M$ this season, do you think he’s going to only get half that amount as a FA?
If you’re going off Sport Trac’s figures….you’ve already made your first mistake. They’re ridiculous. Do you think Ty France, a guy who might very well be nontendered by the Reds in a couple of weeks, would get a 5 year 70M$ contract this winter (their projection)? NOT HARDLY. And his and Torres’ figures are just 2 of many absurd evaluations.
@metsin4 Yes. Over/under at $50MM if Gleyber signs with another team?
Yes
For one of the worst fielding second baseman in the league that came off a league average hitting line. I don’t know you to make a bet but if I did I would gladly do opening day tickets to Yankees or Mets on a foolish bet like that.
Fair enough. I appreciate your conviction. How about a new account/username change (formerly known as YBC or metsin4) for a week on Opening Day? Winner decides on new name. I’ve been on MLBTR now for several years with the same name.
I would do that. The bet is only if he signs elsewhere. I will add that I also lose the bet if the Yankees give him a qualifying offer. Loser changes their name for one week.
I would take the qualifying offer and go to free agency next year without it being attached. Why is everyone so afraid to bet on themselves?
Because you could lose tens of millions of dollars from one injury. The QO does not hurt free agent status nearly as much as some people think.
See in your mind you would bet against yourself. A really good season and it could make you tens of millions of dollars.
The average mlb career is 2.2 years….only 25% of those who debut ever reach 6 years of service necessary to enter free agency. Only 1 in 10 will reach 10 years of service. Sticking around another year, in the hopes of having an even better season, is betting against the odds.
I’m sure all these players getting qualifying offers don’t think they are average. The odds of anyone ever receiving a qualifying offer and only playing one more season is astronomically low.
Whatever you say man, I don’t care anymore….earlier in the post you questioned him getting 50M$….not worth me arguing about.
If you think he’s only making 7M$ per in FA then of course you’d take the QO if offered. No one but you and that dumb sports trac algorithm thinks he’s only getting 7M$ per in FA.
For one of the worst fielding second baseman in the game coming off a league average hitting line. What do you think average second baseman make? He had a 1.8 WAR. Not screaming pay me.
1.8 bWAR ranked 12th best in the majors at secondbase.
IF Gleyber could work harder to improve his defense and maybe steal some more bases he would improve his value and potential salary easily by 30%. Not sure if its a lack of want to, lack of discipline or like an ADHD issue. No meant as a joke.
Besides the coaches you would think his teammates would/could encourage him to work harder on his defense.
Up the middle defense IS SO Important. ((C, P, SS, 2B, CF))
Turning doubles play and range
the astros trading hernandez is one of their biggest blunders in the past 7 years
In 2024 47 players made more than the 2025 Qualifying Offer. I think fans will be surprised at how many free agents WON’T get a QO. A prime example is Tyler O’Neill. A high risk player who is lucky to play 120 games per year. Nice to have when healthy but not healthy enough to justify $20 Million.