While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.
No-Doubters
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Max Fried (Braves)
These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.
As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.
Likely
- Sean Manaea (Mets)
Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.
The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.
Borderline Calls
- Luis Severino (Mets)
Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.
The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.
New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.
The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.
- Michael Wacha (Royals)
Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.
It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.
An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.
This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.
Long Shots
- Shane Bieber (Guardians)
Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.
- Jeff Hoffman (Phillies)
Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).
- Nick Martinez (Reds)
Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.
Ineligible
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers)
- Jack Flaherty (Dodgers)
- Yusei Kikuchi (Astros)
- Max Scherzer (Rangers)
- Tanner Scott (Padres)
- Blake Snell (Giants)
Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.
The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.
yankees500
Why does it seem like the goal of the QO is so the player declines? So what if Wacha comes back at $21 million? Thats not a totally outrageous price to pay for the royals
angryyankeesfan1
They want the draft pick
HatlessPete
It’s what the qo is there for, to compensate teams who are priced out of retaining higher end talent when free agency comes. It’s a feature, not a bug. Cases like wacha’s are relatively infrequent and situational. Depends on the royals’ internal evaluation of wacha, offseason roster plan and budget, but if they do give him a qo, it probably means they see it as a win-win move. Nothing wrong with that!
Rsox
Sometimes it’s used that way and some times it’s a head scratcher like when the Red Sox used it on Stephen Drew or the Astros on Colby Rasmus…
johnsilver
It was much better when all the team had to do was offer up arbitration and FA’s were classified into type A, or B. How the MLBPA conned owners into doing away with that setup should have been filed into “save for a rainy day” file to use again tactic. During those times? Tampa used to rake in 1st-2nd round picks that way, they had believe it was 11 of the 1st 100 picks during the ’11 draft, mostly due to allowing tons of “A” relievers walk.
Nobody will ever accuse either side of having the best negotiators working for them, so rotten deals have emerged mostly every time for both sides. Why in many ways there are so many awful umpires at the mlb level, non fireable and many other issues with the game.
HatlessPete
RSox, well sometimes orgs are just gonna make poor decisions!
Johnsilver, there’s no such thing as a perfect system. I think it’s a stretch to say that the mlbpa “conned” the owners into overhauling the draft compensation system. I don’t really consider it a loss that the rays aren’t able to game the system into harvesting loads of draft picks on the reg anymore. Offering arb, which is a process that suppresses player earnings isn’t exactly appealing to the mlbpa for understandable reasons and I’d venture to guess that some on the non-rays ownership side weren’t too keen on how Tampa was getting over on them.
In collective bargaining both sides have ample opportunity to discuss and reach compromise on the issues on the table. Apparently the owners did not feel as a group that maintaining the old comp system was a hill worth dying on and they may well have used that concession as a bargaining chip at that time. I don’t see a case here for the overhaul to fa compensation being a big or concerning issue.
FartPocket
If Giolito was healthy and pitched well enough to opt out this offseason; Giolito, Flaherty, and Fried would be three of the top free agent pitchers that all went to the same high school. With Fried and Giolito drafted the same year.
Thats my ESPN useless fact.
Rsox
If Giolito was healthy and pitched well the Red Sox probably make the playoffs…
FartPocket
True. But, it doesn’t change my fact.
braveshomer
So long Fried, you will be missed. …Hopefully the Braves make some meaningful FA additions with a fair amount of money coming off the books, but sadly I doubt it.
Rsox
Don’t worry, AA will pull off some ridiculous trade that no one sees coming to shore up his needs.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Logan Gilbert to Atlanta
Jk mariners never trade starters
Bucsfan4ever
As long as Liberty Media owns the Braves the team will not be signing any big time free agents. But the Braves do have some really good pitchers coming up through the minors. Unless AA makes some moronic trades and gives up the young pitchers. If the Braves hold on to the young pitchers, and they get a manager who actually knows how to handle a pitching staff, they will not miss Fried at all.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
They extended Matt Olsen, which was pretty much like signing a big free agent.
When they get back R. Acuna, A. Riley and Albies all on the same game, they will be in the wild card mix even without Fried. Would be great if Atlanta could trade Ozuna for a solid pitcher in last year of deal and then plug Soler into Ozuna’s spot. Trading Soler probably could not yield that same pitcher.
avenger65
MLB Top 100…: I’ll never understand the thinking that says, trade away a player who basically carried a team’s offense (Ozuna) or had a great season and was instrumental in a team’s success (Santander). If the player is that good and has been for more than one season, why not just extend their contract? Maybe you can get a good player or two for them, but you don’t know what the new player(s) will do in a new setting (see Jordan Montgomery) while you already know what the player you have can do.
Samuel
Amazing how good Fried was with a manager that
doesn’t know how to handle pitchers……at least a
dozen other pitchers as well.
NerdSurfer
Bieber will be fresh of TJ and only available for half a season? Sounds like he’s heading to the Dodgers. That’s their jam.
Samuel
Believe Guardians and Padres are the top candidates.
The same system of working with pitchers. Coaches Bieber is familiar with.
Rsox
As the article states Burnes and Fried are guaranteed to get the QO and decline it. Manaea and Wacha could both end up accepting the offer as I’m not sure either could top the AAV. The Mets would have to be certain they want Severino back because tagging him with QO probably guarantees he accepts. If I’m the Sox i roll the dice on Pivetta and give him the offer hoping he accepts but expecting him to decline. The Phillies would set a terrible precedent giving Hoffman the QO as a reliever that isn’t even a Closer, let alone an elite Closer
KingKen
Why give Pivetta a QO. He’s not worth the price at all. If the Sox played in a large park like some of the NL West ones maybe but he simply gives up too many HRs to be worth that price even for one year. Use the money on a better pitcher.
920falcon
Perhaps, Max will finish his HOF career back in Washington.
pjmcnu
Are those Manaea/Severino luxury tax numbers taking into account money coming off the books?
Rational_Mets_Fan
I’ve seen two articles now talk about the Luxury Tax they will owe when they will be ~$75m under the tax threshold. Regardless of the success they had this year, that’s still the goal to reset back.
johnsilver
If the non cheap owners had any guts? They would insist any team not spending some sort of mininum on salary.. Say between 125-150m each year gets stripped of any and all extras bequeathed to teams included as “payees” of Luxury tax redistribution, from freebie bonus picks to any money shoveled to them. It would be the only way I know of to force them to spend, or move and not maintain status quo as pretty much useless organizations.. Sounds harsh, but it’s cold hard truth.
Samuel
john;
11 of the 30 teams had payrolls under $125m this year.
16 of the 30 teams had payrolls under $150m this year.
Do you have any idea of the expense a MLB franchise has to incur to run for one year? I can only estimate their insurance premiums after the claims they make for all the injured players that go to the hospitals for tests and surgeries.
Unless there’s pretty much total revenue sharing as in the NFL and NBA, MLB is a mess. It’s just a screwed up system. Go on the Internet and see what like positions / jobs pay in different markets. In my profession I was getting 30-40% more in a major market doing the same work. The reason is the cost of living. I was also playing outrageous amounts of money for my mortgage / rent, home. auto, and medical insurance. The same food. Clothes. Education. Cost of tickets to go to a ML baseball game (and refreshments / souvenirs). You name it…..
And here comes MLB with an arbitration system that demands the A’s, Guardians, and Rays pay a player with similar years of service and similar statistics the same salary as players from the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.
This has nothing to do with “cheap” owners. When arbitration was agreed upon A’s owner Charlie Finley called his fellow owners the “biggest a-holes in the world” for agreeing to it. Asked where he was going to get the revenue to pay his players what the Yankees paid theirs.
Who comes up with a system whereby revenue streams are so unequal, then mandates demands that the players get equal pay?
Of course the A’s, Guardians, and Rays (and Brewers…and Pirates…and Marlins…and Reds….and 10 other teams are forced to trade or lose veteran players because they can’t afford their salaries. It’s even now gotten to mid-market teams such as the Tigers, Mariners, DBacks..
I haven’t watched a game of the playoffs after the first WC day. The entire concept is rigged. It’s a joke.
Blackpink in the area
No way i would offer it to Manaea, Severino or Wacha. All 3 are far too inconsistent.
FartPocket
2/32 for wacha or Manaea is a good deal (around what their contracts were last year, generally). I think most would agree. So why would 1/21 not be a good deal after the 2024 season? It’s like once people see the “2” at the start of the salary they get upset.
Maybe the question should be do you think think wacha and Manaea earned a $5-8 million/year raise? I think they did, so the QO is worth it.
Blackpink in the area
Manaea wasn’t that good I believe in FIP and his was not too impressive. Wacha I just don’t trust to stay healthy.
FartPocket
So, you’re saying they don’t deserve a raise based on their 2024 performance?
Blackpink in the area
Wacha maybe a small one. No on Manaea.
FartPocket
Fair enough. I think wacha has proven to be consistent over the past three years. 3/60 maybe but because of lack of innings, so 3/54 which makes 1/21 reasonable. Manaea should easily get 3/57 so 1/21 isn’t bad. But Manaea on the Mets makes it 1/44 so obviously not.
Jeremy320
Mets are below the 2025 cbt atm. There is no tax.
Flyby
Isnt Verlander also a free agent as well? I believe he will be ineligible but still a top pitcher.
Joe says...
JV will be 42 years old next season and has a 5.48 ERA this season. He’s no longer a top pitcher.
OhioDodger
What about Teoscar Hernandez???
avenger65
Ohio: Last time I looked Teoscar is an outfielder, not a pitcher.
Butter Biscuits
This list is just for pitchers.
bhambrave
Where does Jose Quintana fall in the QO mix? Ineligible, Long shot or unlikely?