Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.
There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.
Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.
The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.
But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.
It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.
His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.
But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.
Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.
A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.
The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.
There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.
However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.
In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.
That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.
Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.
The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.
That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.
Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.
There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.
What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!
It’s a no brainer pick up the option. They will do that.
If the prospects play well and show they’re ready they can easily trade the guy and that contract later.
“If the prospects play well and show they’re ready they can easily trade the guy and that contract.”
Not if his 2025 first half mirrors his 2024 first half.
I’m happy Geno bounced back in the second half, but he’s 33 with declining bat speed and bad chase, whiff, and K rates. Those are things that only get worse with time. The declining bat speed with likely soon lead to fewer hard hit balls, therefore fewer HR or XBH in general for that matter. He may still be worth a net $13M gamble, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he craters and doesn’t rebound in the second half this time around.
Ridiculous article. How do you not mention the financial impact on what they are willing to spend and what their financial opportunities could be out slide of Suarez ? Thats the largest determining factor.
That included into factoring and it’s still a no brainer. A second season in the dessert should create more. Consistency
It depends what type of dessert the big fella is given. A light dessert like Jello might help offset the normal decline due to aging. A heavier dessert would slow him down. Sorry. I couldn’t help myself!
Maybe gelato?
@BigWhiffa Could you try that one more time? I think there was a semblance of a good point in there amidst the typos and formatting issues.
Arizona will have enough financial flexibility that a net $13M shouldn’t be an issue.
It shouldn’t be a no-brainer. A second season won’t automatically create more consistency at age 33, turning 34 during the season when he’s already showing a regression in the skills needed to be a plus offensively and maintain that consistency you’re hoping for. It wasn’t a change of scenery that got him off to a slow start. It was declining skills.
Either way it’s on a 13mil gamble. I’d keep him.
They can easily trade him because they won’t be getting anything good back in return lol.
Yes, they pick up the option and part ways at the end of the season. Lawlar does not appear ready.
Still, it will be interesting to see if they know the fate of Christian Walker by the deadline for picking up the option. Shouldn’t change anything though.
How does Lawlar not appear ready? He’s the most ready minor leaguer out there.
Watch tape of his most recent MILB and MLB at-bats.
The at bats were he had a .900 OPS in the minors? Or do you seriously want to look at the minimum MLB at bats from over a year ago?
Both
Well .900 OPS isn’t remotely agreeing with you. I can put a video together of any MLB player and make them look like they are horrible but a .900 OPS doesn’t lie. meanwhile he’s hitting really well in the Dominican Winter League.
.900 OPS isn’t remotely agreeing with you.
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I have no dog in this race, but Lawlar’s 2023 AA numbers project to 153 Ks per 600 ABs.
His very limited 2024 AAA numbers project to 208 Ks per 600 ABs.
To me, that screams out “not ready”. In addition, at age 22, there is no reason to promote him. He also has 45 errors in 1768 IPs. It’s not a huge amount, but it is not tiny either.
Yes I think they basically have to pick up the option. Not enough reason to have confidence in the in-house candidates as yet and there’s not a clear oe comparable alternative out there for them externally that I can see. If lawlar or Alexander force the issue in 2025 and Suarez remains playable they can move him at the deadline. Worst case scenario, there’s virtually no such thing as a crippling one year deal at this price. They can stash him on the bench or even release him if they have to.
Just as long as he plays somewhere full time. He’s currently my front-runner to break Reggie Jackson’s career whiff record.
full- time for about six more years? he’ll be pushing 40. not that he doesnt k a ton, but i think harper might have a better shot due to age and trajectory, simply because harper should play for a while longer than geno
Harper’s too injury-prone. I originally had my heart set on Chris Davis, then Giancarlo Stanton. Suarez is all I have left until someone begins his career at age 19 or 20 and puts up consistent .310, 35 HR, 110 RBI years with 175-190 K’s a year.
Maybe Adam Dunn has a kid?
Mark Vientos is your guy. 30% k rate
They will pick up his option. What happens before the trade deadline depends on him. There, I shortened the article.
The option is a no brainer, and I’d be shocked if they declined it. Suarez has value to them, so they shouldn’t be dead set on trading him, but teams should listen on everyone and I’d be surprised if they don’t get an offer they like.
Conventional wisdom is they pick up the option and keep him at 3B. My intuition tells me he’s gonna make them regret it.
Automatic pickup, imo. The dude’s a consistent 30-HR+ hitter who won’t embarrass you with the glove. Lawler is only 22, so another year in AAA won’t damage him. And it’s a small sample, but 17 Ks in 49 ABs suggests that improvements can be made.
And solid veteran third basemen are not that easy to find either.
Jordan Lawlar needs to be in the majors next year. Good thing Lawlar is a shortstop and will be pushing Perdomo somewhere else.
These kinds of questions have a way of sorting themselves out. If lawlar is healthy and playing reasonably well when the time comes, one injury that opens a roster spot where lawlar fits can open that opportunity for him.
Given the paucity of impact bats at third base in the NL, they’ve gotta re-sign him. Full stop.
I thought it was spelled “PawCity” and it’s the name of a boutique pet food chain on the West Coast?
I went there! They actually didn’t have pet food and just put 10,10,10, and 20 on my tiddies. Then called me the b-word
That happens sometimes.
Some of Suárez’s 2nd half production seems highly unlikely to continue in 2025. In the 2H last year he ran a:
.341 BABIP (career .302)
23.3% HR/FB (career 18.1%)
.394 wOBA (.376 xwOBA)
.602 SLG (.565 xSLG)
He could still be worth a $13M investment so I think they pick up the option. But for a team with a $140-150M payroll that’s not an insignificant amount to eat if he stinks.
I try to account for some of the outliers, but I also figure he had a .942 OPS in the 2nd half. Even if I took 100 points off of that, that’s still a pretty good stretch.
For sure, the D’backs would absolutely take an .842 OPS from Suárez next year.
Using FanGraphs’ player graphs I looked at his rolling average wRC+ over 65 game stretches and the last time he ran one as high as he did in this year’s 2H was… never. So, when Suárez turned 33 years old in July this year he was the best version of himself he’s ever been.
I think in that context the D’backs should be prepared for a drop-off larger than .100 OPS and the question becomes how big a drop are they comfortable with. Capably playing 3B gives him a good floor IMO and if he’s a 100-105 wRC+ hitter then his $13M salary is totally worth it.
@Rollie
You also have to look at how bad his first stretch of the year was. He’s not as good as the 2nd half and not nearly as bad as he was in the first.
If he’s an 800 OPS guy with his fine glove at 3B then that’ll be well worth picking it up. I wouldn’t want Suarez on anything but a 1 year deal but luckily that’s the option they have.
Confession: I do not watch Suarez on a routine basis. He, like many other players, seems like a product of modern metrics. The modern system of metrics is so beneficial in so many ways, but none really address the “when” element of baseball. The timing of hits/ hr/ sb, etc is crucial to WINNING. (i.e. Give me Pat Tabler at the plate with the bases loaded). I feel like this is where managers might/ should have some say in the “business” decisions.
$15 mil for 30 Home Runs and 100 RBI’s isn’t going to break anyone’s bank. With the possibility of losing Christian Walker in free agency this should be an easy choice
Eduardo Escobar says I got this.
I’m the next Candelita and I will hit .337 for your team.
Eugenio became one of the best hitters in the 2nd half. I don’t see why the DBacks don’t pick up the option.
If Arizona doesn’t pick up the option (or decides to trade him), I can see a team like the Cardinals getting him to replace Goldy.
In his first 27 plate appearances in the Dominican League this winter, Lawler slashed .409/.481/.773! Very small sample, but…maybe he’s closer to MLB ready than his brief 2023 appearances suggest?
He’s the power insurance so they don’t have to give Walker 70 million (which they should not do).
If Lawlar impresses in the Spring they should slide Perdomo to 2B often and have Marte DH to keep him healthy. KM’s bat is crucial. Lawlar is the best option for a long term answer at SS.
Pick up Suarez option one that is a gimme, he does have some trade value depending on injuries during ST if they want to trade him.
I do think the D”Backs could end up losing over 40 HR’s this off season, if Suarez gets traded after picking up option and don’t see Walker signing anything less than 3 years plus a player option year @ 75mil with 25mil signing bonus. This could cause some stress for the D’Back front office. May have to use they’re minor league top prospects to get a solid replacement(s). to replace the power that is lost.
I don’t Walker will get that much at his age. I like him, but he is slowing down. I’m thinking more like $40M/2. AZ should be thinking in terms of Suarez instead of Walker if the price is any higher.
Had the M’s kept him and Teoscar last season, they probably squeak into the playoffs.
I would love to see the M’s re-sign Saurez as there is a gaping hole at 3B. and getting Teoscar for DH would be awesome too.
Add them to Julio, Robles, Raleigh, Arozarena, Crawford and Raley. Only thing left would be a decent 2B. Spend some damn money, Stanton!
Pick up the option 3.8 WAR is worth 15 million. You trade Lawlar, prospects fail more often than they succeed and see if ya can get someone proven.
That’s ridiculous. Trade an elite prospect to keep an aging player that is inconsistent.
No trade the “elite” prospect for a proven stud. It will cost money but you know what ya got. Do you understand the amount of “elite” prospects get called up and suck? Why diminish Lawlar’s value when you have someone giving ya 4 WAR a season already at the position? Use Lawlar to get some pitching depth….
Let’s say Arizona declined their option on Suarez. As the clear number two third-baseman on the market he’d almost definitely command more than a 1 year contract. With an AAV arguably around the range of the net $13M cost of exercising the option.
Dbacks should pick the option up and then immediately trade him.
Seattle made a mistake when they traded him. He may strike out too much, but you knew that he was going to produce. Arizona should keep him until the wheels fall off. Geno is the true definition of a ballplayer.
If the Mariners have no other options they should bring back Geno.
No 3B on free agent market that are decent except Bregman, and I would rather lose than have him or Altuve on my team.
He’s a better value than Jeimer Candelario, who got 15 million a year.
On the open market, that is a 20+ mil bat.
FanGraphs values his production this past season at like $30 mil. This seems like a no brainer of a decision. That said, if it were my team, the frustration of his ups and downs, I’d not want him. And that’s just cause I hate guys who go in huge slumps and strikeout at a stupid rate. I would know.. Braves are no stranger to those guys over the last decade or so. It’s much more fun to watch the consistent guy even if over 162 they literally produce at a similar lvl. K rate excluded