Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.
There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.
Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.
The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.
But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.
It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.
His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.
But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.
Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.
A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.
The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.
There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.
However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.
In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.
That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.
Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.
The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.
That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.
Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.
There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.
What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!
roob
It’s a no brainer pick up the option. They will do that.
If the prospects play well and show they’re ready they can easily trade the guy and that contract later.
myaccount2
“If the prospects play well and show they’re ready they can easily trade the guy and that contract.”
Not if his 2025 first half mirrors his 2024 first half.
I’m happy Geno bounced back in the second half, but he’s 33 with declining bat speed and bad chase, whiff, and K rates. Those are things that only get worse with time. The declining bat speed with likely soon lead to fewer hard hit balls, therefore fewer HR or XBH in general for that matter. He may still be worth a net $13M gamble, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he craters and doesn’t rebound in the second half this time around.
Big whiffa
Ridiculous article. How do you not mention the financial impact on what they are willing to spend and what their financial opportunities could be out slide of Suarez ? Thats the largest determining factor.
That included into factoring and it’s still a no brainer. A second season in the dessert should create more. Consistency
For Love of the Game
It depends what type of dessert the big fella is given. A light dessert like Jello might help offset the normal decline due to aging. A heavier dessert would slow him down. Sorry. I couldn’t help myself!
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
@BigWhiffa Could you try that one more time? I think there was a semblance of a good point in there amidst the typos and formatting issues.
myaccount2
Arizona will have enough financial flexibility that a net $13M shouldn’t be an issue.
It shouldn’t be a no-brainer. A second season won’t automatically create more consistency at age 33, turning 34 during the season when he’s already showing a regression in the skills needed to be a plus offensively and maintain that consistency you’re hoping for. It wasn’t a change of scenery that got him off to a slow start. It was declining skills.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Yes, they pick up the option and part ways at the end of the season. Lawlar does not appear ready.
Still, it will be interesting to see if they know the fate of Christian Walker by the deadline for picking up the option. Shouldn’t change anything though.
letitbelowenstein
Just as long as he plays somewhere full time. He’s currently my front-runner to break Reggie Jackson’s career whiff record.
pohle
full- time for about six more years? he’ll be pushing 40. not that he doesnt k a ton, but i think harper might have a better shot due to age and trajectory, simply because harper should play for a while longer than geno
letitbelowenstein
Harper’s too injury-prone. I originally had my heart set on Chris Davis, then Giancarlo Stanton. Suarez is all I have left until someone begins his career at age 19 or 20 and puts up consistent .310, 35 HR, 110 RBI years with 175-190 K’s a year.
sufferforsnakes
They will pick up his option. What happens before the trade deadline depends on him. There, I shortened the article.
Steve E.
Russell Branyan
The option is a no brainer, and I’d be shocked if they declined it. Suarez has value to them, so they shouldn’t be dead set on trading him, but teams should listen on everyone and I’d be surprised if they don’t get an offer they like.
solaris602
Conventional wisdom is they pick up the option and keep him at 3B. My intuition tells me he’s gonna make them regret it.
JoeBrady
Automatic pickup, imo. The dude’s a consistent 30-HR+ hitter who won’t embarrass you with the glove. Lawler is only 22, so another year in AAA won’t damage him. And it’s a small sample, but 17 Ks in 49 ABs suggests that improvements can be made.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
And solid veteran third basemen are not that easy to find either.
Steve E.
Given the paucity of impact bats at third base in the NL, they’ve gotta re-sign him. Full stop.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I thought it was spelled “PawCity” and it’s the name of a boutique pet food chain on the West Coast?
Rollie's Mustache
Some of Suárez’s 2nd half production seems highly unlikely to continue in 2025. In the 2H last year he ran a:
.341 BABIP (career .302)
23.3% HR/FB (career 18.1%)
.394 wOBA (.376 xwOBA)
.602 SLG (.565 xSLG)
He could still be worth a $13M investment so I think they pick up the option. But for a team with a $140-150M payroll that’s not an insignificant amount to eat if he stinks.
Lofton4daHOF
Confession: I do not watch Suarez on a routine basis. He, like many other players, seems like a product of modern metrics. The modern system of metrics is so beneficial in so many ways, but none really address the “when” element of baseball. The timing of hits/ hr/ sb, etc is crucial to WINNING. (i.e. Give me Pat Tabler at the plate with the bases loaded). I feel like this is where managers might/ should have some say in the “business” decisions.
Rsox
$15 mil for 30 Home Runs and 100 RBI’s isn’t going to break anyone’s bank. With the possibility of losing Christian Walker in free agency this should be an easy choice
Lindor's Bodyguard
Eduardo Escobar says I got this.
I’m the next Candelita and I will hit .337 for your team.
Clofreesz
Eugenio became one of the best hitters in the 2nd half. I don’t see why the DBacks don’t pick up the option.
Stlhomers
If Arizona doesn’t pick up the option (or decides to trade him), I can see a team like the Cardinals getting him to replace Goldy.
scottaz
In his first 27 plate appearances in the Dominican League this winter, Lawler slashed .409/.481/.773! Very small sample, but…maybe he’s closer to MLB ready than his brief 2023 appearances suggest?
Wagner>Cobb
He’s the power insurance so they don’t have to give Walker 70 million (which they should not do).
If Lawlar impresses in the Spring they should slide Perdomo to 2B often and have Marte DH to keep him healthy. KM’s bat is crucial. Lawlar is the best option for a long term answer at SS.