Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.
Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 Also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.
Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premiere first basemen.
Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.
Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.
As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.
That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.
That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.
Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.
cinredsfan
Someone will overpay.
larkraxm
The QO is an overpay.
Blackpink in the area
1 year deals are worth overpaying for. Then factor in the fact he probably won’t accept it. Gotta make the offer.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Lark
QO is not an overpay. If I owned a team needing a 1B, I would pay Walker 2025 $23 2026 $18 2027 $15 2028 $12 or four years for $68 million.
RunDMC
A mid-order bat for 21.05M for GG defense and 25+ HR averaging 3.6 WAR/season over last 3 years, when the downside is a comp pick…sounds pretty easy to me. They could move Joc to 1B, at the very least, if he bolts.
DarkSide830
Easy yes.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Super easy yes!
Lets Go DBacks
Absolutely a no brainer here. A QO and he’ll decline. He deserves the pay check, he has been an excellent defensive piece at 1B with pop. Too streaky in my opinion, but still a terrific replacement for Goldy.
DroppedThirdStrike
Not if they QO him. It’ll reduce his price tag even more. 3/$55m
Moonlight Graham
He’ll be 34 at the start of next season. If Arizona thinks it’s worth keeping him around for another season, then I guess it’s okay to QO him. But it’s probably a bit risky.
I find it hard to believe anyone will sign him for more than 3 years, and I don’t see his contract reaching $60 million—especially if it means losing a draft pick.
Maybe they QO him, then negotiate a 3-year deal worth $45-$50 million.
Can we please get a DH?
You 100% offer the QO. Last year Rhys Hoskins received a 2yr/$34M deal coming off significant injury and worse production.
If he signs, you are happy to pay $21M next year for a likely 3-4 WAR season and you don’t take long term deterioration risk.
If he declines, you get a favorable negotiation position where you either get an extra pick or you resign him for slightly more than what another team offers (which will be lowered by the cost of giving up a pick).
I think likely he ends up coming back for a deal between 3yr/$60-75M. Personally, I’d rather have Walker on a high AAV 2 to 3 year deal over a long 5-7 year deal for Alonso.
Samuel
Alonso impacts a teams tenacity and turns games around.
Walker seems like nice transitional player for a young, small or mid-market team such as the Pirates. He’s a consistent player and a professional. His play at 1B could settle the infield. O’S might be interested for 2 years if they can move Mountcastle and the new owner increases the payroll. Don’t think Walker wants to go to a rebuilding team or a screwed up one like the White Sox or Angels.
Rhys Hoskins was just what I wrote – a transitional big bat for a young team that’s starting to contend. In his case the Brewers knew he would primarily be a DH. In 2 years he’ll
be gone….maybe even at the trade deadline in 2025.
Large market and bigger mid-market teams usually have
a big bat at 1B or are discussing moving another position player there that makes a nice salary.
Mike56
Yea I would definetely extend QO. Really nothing to lose. I don’t know if I’d pay more than 3yr/$60 mil because of age. Solid player though
Blackpink in the area
Gotta make him an offer. 1 year deal are always tolerable and he’s been very consistent over the last few years. He probably won’t accept.
Mike56
You could sign Goldy back cheaper would be another option
gbs42
Goldy would be cheaper and worse.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Lol Pete Alonso isn’t in the top 4 in war by 1st basemen
Old York
Yes. Given Walker’s consistent production, defensive value, and the fact that the QO is a short-term commitment, it makes sense to extend the QO, especially since it provides flexibility (either retaining Walker or getting draft compensation). However, his age and injury history make it a bit of a gamble.
Niekro floater
He’ll decline QO. Although his yearly avg will be less than QO hes looking for years n total amount. This is his last chance to get biggest piece of pie he can cause he’s only getn older. Dude wrecks the Dodgers.
positively_broad_st
Walker is worth a one year/$21M risk. He won’t accept it. He’ll get a little less per year on a multi-year contract, but he’ll have more guaranteed money. He’ll be in good demand (but age tempers his interest), so he’s probably looking at a three year deal at $17M-$19M per season. Can add a little to the guarantee with a fourth year option with a buyout…
Domingo111
Definitely risk giving him the QO. If he takes it it probably is a slight overpay as he probably is a 110-120 wrc+ bat but it is only one year and the dbacks don’t have any mlb ready Alternative in the minors.
Also if he rejects it you get the extra pick which is great.
This is a no brainer for me, the chance you get the pick if he rejects plus the chance you get a slightly above average 1b man if he takes it is probably worth overpaying him by 5 millions. And any Alternatives you can get in a 1 year deal is likely worse than walker.
The only reason you don’t offer him and save the money if you plan to either sign a high profile 1b or you do a Blockbuster trade for a 1b. But saving the 20 mil for walker to sign a worse Alternative like Carlos Santana or rowdy tellez for a year and 10 mil doesn’t really make sense unless you plan to “tank” 1b and just put a bad player there and hope the saved money makes the team better in another place. But I don’t like to do that, you rarely see a good playoff team completely tanking 1b, that’s where you want some production.
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
I really think the Rangers will sign Paul Goldschmidt he would be a really good DH and Righty bat for Texas.