The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.
Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.
Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.
The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.
Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.
Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.
If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.
A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.
After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.
Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.
Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”
Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.
I’m still too gobsmacked to even comment on the contents of the article.
I think the Reds would gladly take Cast back in a trade assuming PHI ate some of that salary.
That does make some sense. Reds could use him as much as anyone could and he did have success there.
Why? He’s become little more than a league average bat with a horrendous chase rate. Toss in his bad defense and the Reds should stay away. He has 2.4 bWAR (only 1.4 fWAR) over the last three seasons combined.
Castellanos showed his worth in the playoffs as a hitter. Clutch as long as he’s not THE GUY. Schwarber and Turner are why their season is done (along with failed bullpen). How about a one for one swap, Castellanos for Yoshida? I still think Yoshida can win a batting title but the Sox need a righty bat and he balances the lineup better.
That isn’t changing your situation. Yoshida is DH type as well.
I’m a Sox fan and from their perspective, it balances the line up better. From Philly, they’re getting a lefty that would crush in that ballpark. It doesn’t improve the defense but it shakes up the lineup.
deweybelongsinthehall
Castellanos showed his worth in the playoffs as a hitter.
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Castellanos has a career .685 OPS in the playoffs.
Castellanos’ team makes it into the playoffs in spite of his replacement level performances during the regular season.
Talking about specifically this past series against the Mets. That said, I didn’t realize it was that low. Joe, each team has basically an immovable DH yet it works for both sides.
@dewey: good points. Mets, though, apparently didn’t get the memo that Castellanos will swing at almost anything. A few of his clutch hits were fastballs in the zone. One was a changeup in the zone. Castellanos does feast on those and took advantage. Yoshida is not a bad trade match up, considering their salary and disappointing production.
He was 1-24 v AZ last year. Better fit, but Yoshi is a better hitter.
Why, you ask. Because he’d be the 4th best hitter on the team, he performed well with them not that long ago, and they have a terrible time getting anyone good to come play with them. That suffice?
For that type of money, why not sign Christian Walker? His 3-yeay bWAR is 11.4 v Nick’s 2.4. Walker’s 3-year OPS+ is 123 v Nick’s 105. Walker is a GG 1B, which you need.
First of all Walker has to want to sign with CIN. Secondly, Walker isn’t an OF’er. and Thirdly, go back and look at my comment – I explicitly said PHI would have to eat salary.
The Reds biggest hole is OF. They have a half dozen guys who can play 1B.
Cincy was 29th in OPS at 1st last year.
What’s your point Joe? They have CES, Candy, Steer, India, etc….can all play there. RF…they have no one.
mrkinsm
What’s your point Joe?
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My point is that they have no one to play 1st, Candy is your 3B and India is your 2B. CES is not a write-off yet, but he’s been really bad.
Y’a’ll need an everyday 1B.
They’re a perennial sub .500 team Joe, they need a lot of things. Right now, OF is the most pressing need. Candelario can’t defensively play 3B anymore and is the most expensive player on the team – he’s playing 1B or DH. They aren’t going to give up on CES based on one month of poor performance with a hand injury. Etc.
Trade proposal
Aiden Miller
Mick Abel
For
Lars Nootbaar
Ryan Helsley
ericm25
how convenient that he retires the day after the rangers win the world series that could have been their 2nd world series if he could have caught that ball in the 2011 series…he will be known for that missed catch or miss played easy catch. probably not a HOFer.
no way to trading Miller…he’ll be in Philly by 2025 late or 2026 and he’ll be in left field 2b or 3b or ss depending on what the phillies do with those positions…stott or bohm could be gone soon or they could put Miller in left..
phillies can’t buy players, they need to develop players. Crawford will be in Philly by 2026. marsh schwarber and casty will be gone by then or sooner.
trading Miller is not goo g to happen.
“Phillies can’t buy players”
That’s kinda what they are best at. The window is closing either trade the young guys or watch it close even sooner.
That’s kinda what they are best at.
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They’re best buys are? Turner, Casty, Schwarber, Walker, Merrifield, Strahm, Soto for ~ $115M for a 9.1 bWAR.
If you had to pick one major signing by the Phillies which would it be?
The Harper signing was a good one. Wheeler another good one. My point was the Phillies spend money they don’t rely on young talent they go buy talent.
That part is true. Once your payroll gets close to $300M, that’s the equivalent of 15 $20M players. You don’t really need much of a farm if you spend that type of money.
It’s interesting, but the Phillies might be better off buying a closer than giving up a good prospect for one year.
As far as fans are concerned the team is always better off spending money rather than trading prospects. But the money isn’t unlimited that’s why teams make trades like the one proposed here.
But you haven’t done a whole lot to solve the problem. Helsley is only there for one year, and then you need to replace him, and now you have even less depth coming up from the farm.
Helsley is one of the best closers in baseball who’s gonna make far far less than his market value. That solves a problem for 2025. Also you get 3 years of Nootbaar at salaries that are far below his market value. That’s perhaps the Phillies 2 biggest needs and they will cost about 10 million in 2025 as opposed to 30 or so if they signed free agents. This is how this stuff works.
If Hays is cyt loose, hoping Baltimore brings him back.
Plays a decent LF and there’s an unspoken natural communication he has with Mullins. Winning tandem.
His offense is predictable. But I like that. Seems unaffected/not intimidated by new LF wall dimensions. Os need RH batters.
Downside. Seems every year he misses time due to various injury and/or illness
IMO, worth every bit of 6 plus mil when comparing him with what’s out there. .
Hays, IMO, never really got a shot to actually get established here, and I agree that $6-$7 is a great gamble for him. That said, the Phillies might be wanting to ho with someone completely new there rather than a Hays/Marsh platoon next year, and looking at the market, it’s the easiest position to upgrade. I almost actually wonder if they would tender him and trade him. (maybe even back to Baltimore for Dominguez?)
Thompson is a below avg manager, was awful previous two postseasons but not pinning this last disaster on him. But would be thrilled if they moved on. OF obvious area to improve but should look at (gulp) C as well. Great D and leader but a ton of money to pay for 47 RBI’s and no dh/1b landing spot for him on the roster.
mike92psu;
LOL
Mr. Thompson is as good a manager as there is in MLB.
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“…but should look at (gulp) C as well.”
J.T. Realmuto is recognized by just about everyone in MLB as the best overall catcher in the sport. Nothing he doesn’t do.
What are you talking about? Realmuto isn’t even close to the best catcher in baseball anymore. Your 3 years long past that take.
Focusing on RBIs, a counting stat, when Realmuto played in only 99 games (his lowest ever in a full season by a LOT) doesn’t make sense. No reason to think he’s injury prone at this point either.
Probably not injury-prone, but he is 33+.
The Phillies biggest concern should be changing the culture in the locker room. Rob Thomson is hardly fit to manage a lemonade stand let alone a team with championship aspirations. Perpetual losers like Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott should be shipped out while they still have trade value. Fixing those issues would go a long way towards improving a team that played with no urgency since July
Ronk325;
Ridiculous.
Watch a lot of the Phillies games.
From what I saw the back-end of the bullpen was messing up again.
Hoffman was great till around July. Then he became wild at times and had to groove pitchers that were clobbered (what happens to many bullpenners). That’s when the team began to hit a wall. They brought in Estévez at the deadline. He may have put up nice numbers with an Angels team that was going nowhere (statistics lie), but he didn’t have it very often pitching for the Phillies in a pennant race.
It was the bullpen. Again. Kimbrael didn’t have it as a closer anymore and Dominguez was OK as a set-up guy, but couldn’t close. Alvarado and Strahm were inconsistent this year.
The back-end of a bullpen blowing games that should have been won weighs on a team – rips them apart. A back-end bullpen that’s consistent has the players confident that if
they get into even the 6th inning with a lead they’ve got that game won.
As a Philly native, I also saw a lot of them this year. The bullpen failed them against the Mets but it was far from their only problem. Schwarber and Harper look like the only members of the lineup who have any fight in them. They need a manager who will hold the players accountable
There was zero reason to send Hoffman back out in the 6th. He finished the 5th, sat for a while. He should have been done. It was do or die, not…let’s hope he gets through this inning. Christopher Sanchez should have pitched the 6th and 7th.
Castellanos showed fight. Turner was the biggest problem. I was watching the game with my son, and literally said when seeing who was coming up…”Well, Turner’s up first so he’s going to strike out. Then we’ll see.” And that’s exactly what happened. Looked at a strike down the middle, next pitch swings at one by his shoes.
It was the bullpen. Again.
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It was also the hitting. They only scored 11 runs in 4 games, and in the three losses, they totaled only 5 runs, and only 14 hits. And the NYM aren’t known for having shutdown aces.
Castellanos is too inconsistent and seems to shut down while he’s slumping. Turner was bad down the stretch but he still has the tools to be a very good player. Bohm and Stott have the ugly combination of mediocrity and complacency. You can’t have guys like that if you’re expecting to win
I hear a lot of criticism of Thomson but nothing specific. What is the actual problem with him? Is he too laid back? Too passive in his decision making?
I’m not usually a fierce critic of Thomson, but he screwed up in the series, especially game 4.
The biggest criticisms I have of Thomson—in Game 4, sending Hoffman back out in the 6th. No need for it when there were other pitchers—specifically Christopher Sanchez—who should have pitched the 6th and maybe the 7th. Letting Hoffman go back out was idiotic from the start.
Overall…his obsessive need for “matchups” or left/right tandems. He did it all year, never letting Marsh or Stott bat against left-handed pitching. Yes, they struggle but they’re never going to improve if they don’t have the chance, and with such a big division lead (that they were squandering anyway) there was no reason not to let them get some reps in.
And then his overall lineup construction. I’ve never been a fan of Schwarber as a leadoff guy…he strikes out too much, and although he walks a lot, he doesn’t get on base nearly enough because he’s not that great of a hitter—outside of the occasional home run. But fine, whatever. However, in the playoffs this year it was obviously that Turner was cooked. He could not hit. The only guys hitting were Harper and Castellanos. The lineup would have done much better had it be Schwarber, Castellanos, Harper to start…Turner should have buried down in the lineup.
I don’t think Thomson will be replaced yet, and they’ll run it back next year. they do need another offensive piece, but I don’t know who or where it’s coming from. (I don’t see Soto signing with the Phillies, and there’s not much else out there. Bregman would be a nice get on a shorter-term deal, but I don’t see that happening either.)
Kyle had an OBP of .366
That’s 15the best in all of MLB for 2024; not just for leadoff hitters, but all hitters.
And other than one year, that’s his career high. Overall, his Phillies career OBP is 34%…decent, but not elite.
Schwarber’s probably taken his last at-bat in a Phillies uniform as he’ll likely be moved this offseason, and it’s probably the right decision.
Making a play for Soto isn’t the worst idea. Soto-Judge is scary. So is Soto-Harper.
Going after Soto probably puts them in the 110% tax bracket. That’ll get real expensive.
So is Soto-Ohtani and Betts.
Forget Bellinger being an everyday CF! He is but an average OF at this point in his career and has become a 1B and DH due to his numerous injuries. The Cubs would have a wonderful Christmas in November, five days after the end of the World Series, if Bellinger was foolish enough to opt-out of that terrible contract the Cubs gave him that still has two year left on it and two opt-outs.
Bellinger would have played a lot more CF for the Cubs in 2024 if not for elite PCA. The article mentioned how terrible the CF options are. I could absolutely see him opting out as the far and away best CF in FA. If Philly can get a taker for Castey, I can absolutely see them bringing in Belly.
Hofmann might want to rethink his desire to return. I have to think that the notorious Philly fans would not treat him well after he was such a major culprit in their early exit from the playoffs.
What, the notorious 3.3 million fans that cheered the Phillies this past season? Silly comment.
I even heard mention of a possibility (though not likely) of a qualifying offer for Hoffman. Career 4.82 ERA. Sure he’s had two good years, but let’s not get silly.
I think no chance. The Phillies are getting expensive and maybe need a #5, depending on how Painter looks, probably an OF, probably 2 RPs.
They are at ~ $240M (Cots). Their arb class, even without Hays, is at ~ $30M. At $270M, they are already at the 62% marginally tax rate. Almost any signing takes them to the 95% rate.
They won’t commit $21M to Hoffman.
Hoffman gave up 10 ERs in one series and 16 in an entire season. Not sure I’m backing up the brinks truck for a guy that folded that bad under pressure.
Look if I was GM for a day, I could fix the Phillies.
Move Turner to LF. Sign Adames (half the errors, hits dingers, is 29).
Bolster the Bullpen.
CF… well probably platoon. Make a deal at the deadline if that fails.
Painter has to pitch in the Majors.
Taijuan… well if I must, I’d use him if Painter isn’t available at the start of the season. I would have to transition him to long relief if I can’t trade him. 18M really isn’t a lot for what he is.. and I think they might find someone to take him if they are 8M a year.
Agree completely with the Turner to left, and signing Aames.
Disagree with Taijuan. He’s done, and probably won’t pitch in the majors again. Phillies will hold onto him over winter and into spring, hoping someone makes any king of offer, but likely he’s just cut toward the end of spring.
Painter won’t be in the majors to start the year. He’ll go to AAA where they can monitor his innings more, and then he’ll be up in June/July as the 5th starter.
There’s no real upgrades available in CF, so it’ll probably be a Marsh/Rojas platoon until Crawford is ready—hopefully by late next season.
I seriously doubt Alec Bohm can play another game in Philly unless he is a visitor. The fans will eat him alive. Next up: Captain Caveman shave and cut your hair. Act is tired. Remember everyone said Stott will win a batting title he’s gets another year. Gotta go get a CF that can actually play. Sorry Rojas you gotta go too. Bohm and Rojas for Trout and a ton of money to pay that down. And put the savior Mick Abel in too on that trade
Why won’t Bohm play another game in Philly? Lots of other players performed far worse.
Don’t think the Angels would do a deal like that—and I wouldn’t include Abel in a trade for Trout. Not because I value Abel as a front-line starter…even if he ends up becoming a below-average receiver, I think that’s more than what Trout will be capable of producing over the life of his contract. Also, why would the Angels give away Trout and pay the contract? If they’re going to pay the contract, they might as well just keep him.
And finally, why would Trout agree to a trade to Philly? He said before that it was easier not playing in front of his hometown, friends, and family and that was when he was a superstar. Would he really want to come home to play in front of those people everyday when he’s on the downside of his career?
The most important question to be asking here is who is running the Phillies? It’s hard to believe Thomson is. It’s also hard to believe a better manager wouldn’t have used the hand he was dealt and maximized the potential of his roster by going with Hays/Marsh in left, Turner in center, Castellanos in right, Bohm at third, Sosa at short, Stott at second, Harper at first, Realmuto catching, Schwarber at DH, and a much more intelligent use of his starting rotation and bullpen. When Harper was interviewed after the last game, he stated unequivocally that changes would be made in the locker room this offseason. Who died and made Harper the Phillies decision maker and official spokesman? And will the inevitable changes in the locker room require Harper’s approval? Castellanos is a much better defensive outfielder than some allege. He was one of the most consistent hitters and defenders in the second half of the season. Bohm played the last month of the year with a significant hand injury. Before that, he performed well enough to be the NL All-Star starter at third base. Marsh has not been given the time, instruction or confidence he needs to become an every day player, but he has the potential Realmuto’s best days as a catcher are over and, with Schwarber hogging the DH position, there are not many places he will be able to be used in the future. Turner is inconsistent at the plate and a poor defensive shortstop. Harper is all about Harper and, remember where you heard it, he will not retire in a Phillies uniform. Did you ever wonder why Harper never won a championship with the Nationals, who won a championship immediately after Harper left the team? Also remember where you heard that the Phils will never win a championship with Thomson managing or Schwarber as their full time DH. The Phils will undoubtedly make many changes this offseason but, if the past is prologue, they will trade away the wrong guys and acquire more wrong ones. In truth, the Phils won’t get much for the players they plan to trade. However, they could acquire players who could actually help this team by trading Schwarber and Nola. Schwarber had a better year at the plate in 2024, but he is still an inconsistent strikeout artist who can’t play any defensive position and who only hits home runs in games against weak or inexperienced pitching where everyone else on the team is also hitting well. His performance in the final series against the Mets shows how good he is against good pitching and in the clutch. The Phils need to free up the DH position and use it as DH by committee to give the older players the chance to keep hitting on days they need a rest from playing defense. Nola is a valuable pitcher for 5 innings. Period. The Phils could trade Schwarber and Nola who both still have trade value for a legitimate center fielder, a lights-out closer, a quality catcher who could share time with Realmuto behind the plate, and more consistent pitching. Finally, the Phils need a new manager who can control his team rather than pamper its so-called stars. The team also has to start looking and acting like ballplayers. A good place to start would be getting rid of the long hair and beards and stopping the bubble gum walk-up music. If these guys looked and acted like ballplayers, they might start playing like ballplayers who could finally win a championship. Then, things might finally be A-O-A-O-K in Philadelphia. The Phils were great during the first half of the season because they played, almost exclusively, teams with losing records. Their suboptimal performance against winning teams in the second half of the season, and especially the playoffs, showed that the Phils have a long way to go before they are good enough to become champions. I said the Phils wouldn’t go to the world series as far back as spring training. What the Phils need and don’t need are that obvious.
Bro congratulations you have broken the record for the longest typed post in MLBTR history. Face it the Phillies will not win another World Series until 2080
highpitch, Thanks for the belated congrats. The Guinness Book of World Records already contacted me about my post! To wit, the Phils will win their next world series before 2080, but I can’t see it happening with Thomson or Schwarber on board. The Phils need a manager who can control things and not give in to the individual preferences of his high-priced players. The Phils also need to open up the DH to guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, Turner, Harper and Bohm who need to be hitting every day, but also need the ability to take a day off from playing defense once a week. I know Schwarber is popular, but the Phils have gotten rid of players who had much more popularity and success than him. Guys like Hamels, Rollins and Utley were among the greatest who ever played in Philly and were also heavily invested in community causes and affairs. Still, the Phils managed to let them go when the opportunity presented itself. By the way, Schwarber becomes a free agent after 2025 which could influence the Phils decision to keep or trade him. The Phils could have dramatically changed the landscape this year by picking up Chisolm and Arraez when they had the chance. The next time around, guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Santander, Tucker and Roberts Jr may be what the Phils need to bolster their outfield. The Phils also need to either trade Realmuto who will become a free agent after 2025 or add a quality catcher to share time with him. Acquiring someone like closers MIller or Helsley, plus a few extra bullpen pieces would help, as would adding a dependable #3 starter, especially if Nola is traded. I’m not sure the Phils will bring back Walker, but I suspect he would probably pitch better under a different manager.. I would not bring back Esteves and I would not make a play for Juan Soto. The Phils already have too may stars and lack a manager who can control them, which may be the Phils biggest problem. Finally, I think Harper will jump ship in Philly and become the face of the A’s when they finally land in Las Vegas.
Move on bro. They are awful. Look at 2008. World Series win. Next year loss in WS. They regress as the years go on. Only shot at winning the World Series was 2022. Now the rebuild will begin again. Window closed fast. Move on to trade rumors football and fire Sirriani chants
highpitch, The Phils had the NL East to themselves this year because the Braves were seriously injured and the Mets just started playing good ball late in the season. What’s more, the schedule dramatically favored the Phils because they played mainly losing teams throughout the entire first half of 2024. Watch the Braves and Mets next season. They should be healthy and significantly improved. The Phils missed a golden opportunity this season. Another year like this – a year without much NL East competition, probably won’t come along again anytime soon. I doubt if the Phils will get rid of most of their older, high-priced players and start a dedicated rebuild in 2025, but they should realize their youth is the future of this team, and use their younger players accordingly.
The Phils could trade Schwarber and Nola who both still have trade value for a legitimate center fielder, a lights-out closer, a quality catcher who could share time with Realmuto behind the plate, and more consistent pitching.
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You’re overrating both players. Maybe you’ll get someone to bite on Schwarber’s okay for $20M, but teams seldom trade for DH’s.
But Nola’s K/9 has decreased 4 years straight. And did you know his ERA+ over the past four seasons is only 104? I still like him, but as a RS fan, no way I’d pick up the remaining $148M/6.
brady, I agree Schwarber and Nola are overrated. Still, they probably have the greatest trade value on the Phils team. Leadoff power hitters are now in vogue. So, a team looking for such a player would probably offer a lot for Schwarber. I posted a year ago that Schwarber would be much more valuable to the Phils if he hit .250 to .275, had between 35 and 40 home runs, and dramatically cut down on his strikeouts. He did that this year, well – sort of, but his age points toward fewer homers in future years. Many teams would probably offer a lot for Nola, despite his inability to reliably get past the 5th inning. Many teams would probably also pay a hefty price for Realmuto who, like Schwarber, becomes a free agent after the 2025 season. Realmuto is the highest paid catcher in baseball, but he is getting older, requiring more time off, and not as sharp or athletic as he used to be. To be sure, he still has plenty of gas left in the tank and would be attractive to many teams. The Phils would be better poised to keep him through 2025 if they could give him significant time as a DH and add a quality catcher to share time with him behind the plate. The Phils need to resist the temptation of mortgaging the farm to acquire Juan Soto or several of the marquis starters who will become available this offseason. The Phils don’t need any more expensive stars. They need hustlers who look, act and play like real professionals.
If a team really wanted Nola that much-they could have just signed him in the off-season.
dark, Few teams could have afforded Nola last offseason.
Not true. $25mm a year for (at worst) a number three starter is not out of reach for most MLB clubs.
Nola is a 2
The star player pampering is going nowhere. I really don’t know how much decision making the managers have. I’m a Braves fan that has watched the Phillies team go further than the Braves the last few years. The Phillies are a good team. I don’t understand the Stott hate. When that guy’s on he grinds out great at bats, something that you don’t see much of anymore with all of the swing and miss stuff. I still think Manfred and his new playoff format doesn’t reward division winners.
kyn, Stott is a good player with a bright future. His bat still needs to become more consistent, but his defense is as good as there is at 2B in the NL, and he is a premier base runner. No one in baseball has gotten on base more in one game against Max Scherzer than Stott. Thomson misused Stott and Marsh when he relegated them to platooning. They would have performed much better in 2024 and the Phils may have gone farther if Stott and Marsh played with the extra confidence everyday starters seem to have. My only problem with Stott is his AOAOK walk-up song. It makes him look like a character in the Barbie movie more than the hard-nosed ball player he has the potential to become. AOAOK makes Stott seem more like Ryan Gosling than Chase Utley, and the Phils need more players like Utley if they’re going to progress to the championship level. I know this is a minor dig, but players that look and act like real ball players start playing like them.
I don’t understand the Stott hate.
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Hate? no. But certainly you can understand that this was a disappointing season for Stott?
Part of my following of the game is via rotisserie, so certainly 2024 was a bad season.
Philly fans are emotional. I am one. They are stuck with bad contracts and players nit living up to them. They need bullpen help. All the jt hate is dumb. He’s getting older and declining but pitchers like pitching to him and catcher is important for that. Chooch couldn’t hit but called a great game. Fix the pen. Try for Santander.
2024 playoff team records against teams with winning records:
NYY 0.591
Atl 0.559
Mil 0.559
LAD 0.554
Phi 0.544
SD 0.532
Bal 0.516
Cle 0.515
NYM 0.505
Hou 0.488
Det 0.485
KC 0.455
And not a single non-playoff team had a winning record against >.500 teams. Phils had the fifth best record against winning teams.
Marsh to the Angels for Joe Adell
No
I will take the weaker outfield for upgrading pitching. Rojas could become an elite defender and Casty is a good defender. He also showed he is capable of putting up numbers. My worthless opinion is to keep what we have on the field for one more year and get at least 2 starters and a closer plus some pen help. That’s just my wishlist.
And I get the counter argument – if we don’t score, pitching does not matter.
marc, As the great baseball philosopher, Casey Stengel, once said: “Good pitching beats good hitting every time…….and vice versa.” The Phils already disproved your argument when they couldn’t win a championship with a starting rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswald and Blanton. The Phils are not as good a team as too many people have suggested. Their hitters are great against mediocre or inexperienced pitchers that throw batting practice to them during games but, as the second half of the season and playoffs clearly showed, the team, with the exception of Harper and Castellanos cannot hit good pitching. Dombrowski made a big mistake by npt grabbing Arraez and Chisolm when they were available. Even if the Phils trade Nola and Walker, they are still in good shape with their starting rotation. A lot of talented pitching has almost ripened in the minors and the Phils have the trade assets to pursue a quality starter and closer.
Actually, I think that theory was proven quite correct in that series, and especially the pivotal game five, against the Cardinals. I vividly remember watching that game with my wife…first two Cardinals got on with extra-base hits, scored a run and then went to the bottom of the first. It was 1-0 and I saw how Carpenter was pitching and I turned to her said, “The Phillies are in trouble..” She laughed, saying it was only 1-0 in the first inning. I knew that that’s all it would take because Chris Carpenter had something special—great pitching—in that game. So yes, good pitching does beat good hitting, especially when it matters most.
Prediction: the Phillies will find a clever way to include Taijuan Walker in a bad contract swap for either Mike Trout or Kris Bryant.
Angels get:
Taijuan Walker, Cal Stevenson, Carlos de la Cruz, Michael Mercado, Griff McGarry, Andrew Walling
Phillies get:
Mike Trout, Reid Detmers
They also find a clever way to acquire a closer.
The Phillies take back Myles Straw, who was paid 7 million to bat .200 at AAA, and is owed 14 million of the next two seasons as well.
Guardians get:
Johan Rojas, Max Lazar, Mick Abel, Jean Cabrera
Phillies get: Emmanuel Clase & Myles Straw
No way the Phillies are getting Trout, nor should they. Doubt that Trout would waive his no-trade to come to Philly. (He’s stated in the past that playing away from home was appealing due to the separation and the was when he was a superstar. Do you really think he wants to come home and play in front of his family, friends, and everyone who knows him when he’s on the downside of his career?)
Don’t see that trade with Cleveland working as it doesn’t match up. Ironically, I think it’s too much for the Phillies to give up AND too little for the Guardians to take back.
A suggestion of Kris Bryant should worry fans, but it is intriguing depending on costs (package & money). He still has talent and might stay healthier outside of Colorado climate. I’d look at Bryant more than Trout.
6, Emmanuel Clase is the best closer in baseball. He could do wonders for the Phils but I doubt Cleveland has any plans to trade him in the foreseeable future. The Phils have potential trade chips all through their farm system but to get someone like Clase or a legitimate star, the Phils are going to have to be willing to part with the likes of Schwarber, Nola, Turner and Realmuto. For various reasons, the Phils would actually be wise to see what kind of returns they could get for a few of these guys. Schwarber is the kind of home run hitter / strikeout king teams don’t win championships with – especially when the player can’t play any defensive position. Nola is among the best starters in baseball for 5 or less innings. Turner is overrated defensively and an inconsistent hitter. Realmuto is no longer capable of catching every day or reliably hitting as he once did. Now is the time for the Phils to see how much they could improve their team by trading a few of these expensive players.
I don’t disagree that Clase is baseball’s best closer or that the Phillies have the pieces to get him if they wanted. However, using the necessary chips to get a guy like Clase isn’t their best play or use for them because they have other, more important needs. Closers (and relief pitching in general) is fickle.
The Phillies likely will make some dramatic moves this winter but I don’t see them being able to move on from the likes of Realmuto or Turner, and moving Nola would be a bad move (he’s durable, provide innings, and is a quality pitcher). I would not be surprised if they move Schwarber…and it’s probably the right thing to do. He still has value, and with only one year, I can see teams interested.
The player I do think the Phillies should use their pieces to go get is Fernando Tatis. It’d be expensive both in terms of prospect cost (likely Painter & Miller in the package) & financial commitment (about $31mmAAV) but he’s young, an above-average to excellent offensive player, and a standout defensive outfielder.
Dombrowski isn’t a trade guru he signs with high bankroll.