The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.
In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”
After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.
That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.
Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.
That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.
With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.
What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.
Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.
Brew’88
I think only Acee believes that the Padres believe DeVries and Salas will break camp for Pads in 2025. But Salas and DeVries are as inevitable as it gets, so it doesn’t make sense to sign Higgy or Kim to a longer term deals.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
In California, 17 year-olds can only work four hours on school days. Would you like De Fries with that?
scarfish
One of the best comments I’ve ever seen on here
Longtimecoming
Brew, I’m hoping due to his age and desire to stay, maybe a 2 year deal with Higgy in 6/year?
I think Kim is gone but that surgery thing could allow a 2 year deal (affordable year 1 with player opt out) essentially giving him 2025 (part year) to prove his shoulder is good. Otherwise, a defensive first SS with shoulder surgery is going to have a limited ceiling in FA.
Pro – just depends on his market. 1 year out of 10 doesn’t make me think teams are lining up with long term deals. Maybe another 4 year multi-opt out contract at 7 / year like the first one?
Neither may play out but these are valid scenarios as of early October.
seamaholic 2
Salas was so highly thought of mostly because of his incredibly young age. Which remains the case. But he wasn’t a good player last year on either offense or defense, and is a year or so from being about the same age as other phenoms. He’s not inevitable in any way shape or form and the actual chances of him being the #1 catcher on a competitive MLB team in 2025 are about zero.
Brew88
Salas is already elite on defense. His offense will come
Samuel
“I think only Acee believes that the Padres believe DeVries and Salas will break camp for Pads in 2025?”
Just read the article. He didn’t write anything like that.
Brew88
Read the article, also listened to the Acee interview
Samuel
He hedged. Wrote that the FO could go any number of ways, including bringing in stop-gap players for a few years. Ended saying there was a good chance that Bogaerts stays at SS.
Brew88
There is no scenario where the teens break camp with team, so hard to imagine what was being implied. Non story.
Brew88
Acee commented on Jon and Jim podcast a couple days ago about potentially losing Higgy and what SD might do, and he specifically mentioned that Salas was not considered by FO to be a solution in 2025, but that he (Acee) wouldn’t discount it as a possibility.
Samuel
Brew88;
Please. You went from “I think only Acee believes that the Padres believe DeVries and Salas will break camp for Pads in 2025.” to “was being implied”.
He’s a writer doing a preliminary article on possible moves the Padres may make going into opening day. He wrote that
2 teenagers are held in high regard by the FO (last year he wrote the same about Jackson Merrill*. So.
What irks me here at MLBTR is that a teams FO holds a brainstorming meeting. The object is to get things on the table – usually written on a board – no matter how unrealistic they seem to be at face value. Then some low
level staffer talks to a reporter hoping to create a bond with him/her, and says the team is considering [fill in blank]. Reporter tweets it out of context, MLBTR picks the tweet up, embellishes the possibilities, and posters argue over nothing.
Acee did a similar thing. A day after the Padres were eliminated he wrote possibilities for the Padres in 2025
AT THIS TIME. Of course that’s going to change. The FO hasn’t had end of year meetings to go over departments
and how people in them and players performed. They
haven’t talked to players agents about 2025. Acee just
threw stuff up on the board that will be skinned down
within the next few weeks.
From past posts I thought yo had some perspective.
Samuel
So how is that:
““I think only Acee believes that the Padres believe DeVries and Salas will break camp for Pads in 2025”?
Brew88
All I can do is provide my perspective, of course I don’t know. What I meant by being implied is that interpretation by this article is involved, Acee is never quoting a source, and in the podcast I listened to he waged a personal opinion that was contrary to FO that this article perpetuates. Finally, I don’t see how this is a story, but it doesn’t take much deep thought to realize the odds of Salas or DeVries breaking camp on Pads next season is improbable at best. But people will run with it I guess.
Brew88
Merrill was far closer to MLB than Salas and DeVries, but I think both teens have a chance to be MLers at the age Merrill did (20.8 yrs old). But that’s 2026 and 2027.
TerryTurnbuckle
Heads will roll this offseason with the way their season ended. Kutsenda will right the ship. Coaching, managing, and talent evaluation all need to be scrutinized and major changes are needed
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Shildt’s the best manager in baseball and their pitching coach isn’t going anywhere so not sure what yer goin on about. Preller is more than safe. He will probably be running the ship 10 years from now as well.
Acoss1331
Preller did a bunch of maneuvering this offseason that really paid off. No one in that organization is going anywhere, that team is going to be competitive next year too.
El Niño
Tell me you know nothing about the padres without telling me you know nothing about the padres.
Rsox
No heads will be rolling.
Gwynning
Y’all got trolled from the top rope turnbuckle, she’s just a giddy Dodger fan with nothing better to do I guess…
Samuel
As I noted under the other articles on MLBTR-Padres Day…..
The way to balance the generous, far-too-many long-term contracts
is to sprinkle in some cheap youngsters.
Also look for them to being in some more underdoped and inexpensive pitchers for Ruben Niebla to work with. He’s been a coaching star.
Texas Outlaw
I think Profar will show major regression.
seamaholic 2
There’s nothing in his numbers, no matter how deep you go, that suggests 2024 was a fluke.
Rsox
He may be a late bloomer but i would be wary of anything over 3 years and even that seems high.
DarkSide830
Track record.
Brew88
Track record. He was great in SD late last year, and very good in 2022. Don’t expect him to be an AS again though.
Longtimecoming
Seam – the previous 10 years of numbers suggest otherwise. Also, can’t overlook the last 8-9 weeks of 2024 where his stats declined steadily (some may say “regressed”).
I’ve been a Profar fan since his first year in SD but there is no way to expect him to replicate 2024.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@seamaholic
I felt as you do a month ago.
Unfortunately, Profar spent that month and the playoffs hitting like pre-24 Profar.
I think he is important to this organization. But they just can’t overpay.
I’d probably shoot for contract length over annual dollar amount. 4/32, maybe even with inventives. Beats the 7 million he used to get, and guarantees him 4 more years of salary. Just depends on if something like that would be good enough, or if he wants All Star money. Also, depends if someone else is willing to pay him All Star money.
I Believe We Can Win
Unpopular opinion.
I’d deal one or both of King and Cease for some young controllable pitching in an effort to retool not rebuild. Sell high.
Save an estimated 20 mill in arb money
Most likely won’t happen but getting back some young controllable pitching cheap would help the books the next couple years.
dmp13
I would try to trade Cease but definitely not King
Samuel
dmp13;;
Cease is interesting to me.
When he’s on, he’s ON. Other times he scuffles through.
In his late 20’s. He could well wind up being another Verlander / Scherzer that became consistent and accelerated into HOF’ers in their 30s. Or he could be what is is now, oscillates from game to game, year to year.
Some FO is going to pay a lot of money in a few years for a front row view.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
King still comes cheap in arbitration owing to being a converted reliever.
Agreed on Cease. Pads should listen on offers.
wvsteve
Salas hit 204 in high A. How is he major league ready?
DarkSide830
Salas is 18 and had a .599 OPS in A+ this past season. Chill out Padres.
Rsox
Cease won’t bring back the same return as they gave up for him with only one season left before free agency. At the trade deadline is a different story.
This is still a contending team and you dont just dump 364 innings and hope to stay that way
Reynaldo's
It looks so bad that Salas was foolishly promoted to AA last season but couldn’t make it past A+ this year.
Blackpink in the area
The Padres are simply not built to last. I was rooting for them against the Dodgers but they needed it more than the Dodgers did. The Padres do a good job drafting and with international prospects but you gotta keep some of those guys. Their system took a big hit with all the trades they made.
Brew88
They look even stronger next year? Simply
Blackpink in the area
I don’t see why the Padres would be better next year.
Brew88
I can see it. Bullpen will be better from the start. They had a lot of injuries this year to key players. Darvish and Tatis likely to play more, hopefully Machado and Bogey are healthier. Merrill only better. Reset on CBT so maybe more spending flexibility. There aren’t a lot of losses, but there will be adds.
HiredGun23
Contradictory writng aside, I think this article miraculously brings up a valid point. Who stays and who goes? I have a feeling that Cease will be talked about more than King but, depending on what players may be offered, think he is back for 2025. Salas and DeVries are still 2 or maybe 3 seasons away from possibly becoming regulars. And as for the payroll, didn’t alot of y’all whine about this to start 2024 and saw that it was a non-issue?
Blackpink in the area
Payroll was definitely an issue for the 2024 Padres that’s the entire reason why they traded Soto.
HiredGun23
They maneuvered just fine. There is plenty of money in the bank account. They just don’t want to go over that tax threshold again.
Gwynning
The only payroll issue was resetting the CBT. The Soto deal made sense in more ways than one.
HiredGun23
Gwynning…I’d do that trade everytime. It worked out well for both sides.
Blackpink in the area
The Soto deal worked out because of the signing of Profar. But resetting the CBT? That’s a bit of an optimistic take on things. The owner died. Maybe they have a big payroll in 2025 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
I was rooting for the Padres. They have a window and it’s already starting to close.
Longtimecoming
Gwynning, absolutely.
Considering, how many innings were pitched by Cease, King and Vásquez and caught by Higgy. Add in the Pro signing for 1 mil + incentives (because a LFer was needed), and the combined productivity was well more than Soto could have provided as a LFer batting in 2 or 3 spot in order for 33 mil.
Ironically, all of those players salaries were even less than Soto.
Yankees aren’t complaining either though! Trade made both teams better in 2024 and Padres have a really good chance of getting a lot out of Cease, King, Vásquez and Brito in 2025 as well.
Gwynning
And I would retort that the window is stuck wide open, to each their own!
Blackpink in the area
You can’t trade all the young talent away the Padres have these last few years and expect it all to work out long term. I understand why they did it and again I was rooting for them.
beersy
So sad as a Padre fan that these Padre related articles are “already” on the site. Was hoping these articles were going to be coming out in early November. I truly thought this was “their year”.
Gwynning
I got caught up in the emotion of the hearts and the PS reminder everywhere… would have been quite the story to “win it for Pete!”
Here’s to next year, beersy. Cheers
#keepthefaith