The Padres saw their season come to an end last night at the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, but despite that disappointing end the 2024 campaign was nonetheless littered with plenty of bright spots for fans in San Diego. Perhaps the most significant among those was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Training as a shortstop prospect with just 46 games at the Double-A level under his belt and turned a surprise Opening Day assignment in center field into a phenomenal rookie season.
Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.
That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position would make Merrill figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.
While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.
For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.
Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
Gwynning
AJ playin’ CBT games, wouldn’t surprise me to see them elevate back above in ’25. Bringing back Ha-Seong might be priority one, but extending Merrill would be HUGE too!
Simm
Yeah that’s my thoughts. If they signed him to extension last offseason they would have nearly certainly went over the tax line. Good news is they should be able to get a deal done this offseason.
Gwynning
I’ll take it one step further- the offer presented would have kept the Pads under, but Merrill chose to bet on himself. Smart kid, he definitely balled out! Keep the faith, Simm!
Simm
Reports are that if the padres offered a fair deal he would sign it today. So I’m not worried one minute about getting a deal done with him.
metsin4
His fair deal and the Padres fair deal could be miles apart.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@Gwynning
I like Ha-Seong, but he ain’t priority number one.
Priority number one is bolstering the starting pitching in the wake of Musgrove’s Tommy John. Priority number two is figuring out Profar’s price and whether or not he is still worth it. Priority number three is sorting out extensions for King, Cease, Arraez, and Merrill, Merrill’s being the top long-term priority. The organization almost certainly will not move Cease or King if they can’t come to terms on extensions for them, and just ride out each pitcher’s last respective year of arbitration. Trading either of them would call into question the viability of still being in “win now” mode.
Ha-Seong Kim is probably not going to be a Padre anymore. I don’t see them breaking the bank for him given the other needs at hand.
Gwynning
I digress after an overstatement; an arm is P1, you’re absolutely right. Retaining signed players is important too, but HSK has more of a ticking clock aspect. I’d QO him and suspect he walks, then pivot to your extensions.
Simm
Starting pitching is definitely item one and each one of them is as a ticking clock as Kim. I just don’t see Kim back unless it’s a team friendly deal.
Gwynning
You still have 12 months to work on extending King and Arraez. I suspect Cease is walking, but I’m sure he’d listen to an offer. Ditto your thoughts on Kim; I don’t see us breaking the bank for him but we would welcome him back at “our” price.
Simm
Yeah I don’t see cease being extended. Hell if the padres didn’t need pitching so bad that would probably trade him this offseason. They might anyways for the right deal.
Rally Goose
Kim probably accepts the QO if it is extended but I’d be tempted to extend it anyway. Letting him walk for nothing after rebuffing countless opportunities to capitalize on his trade value would be more than just a little embarrassing.
Rally Goose
Why would the Padres trade Cease after giving up all that to get him when they have two rotation spots to fill? (three if they trade him)
Simm
Why I said they probably won’t trade cease. After his postseason performance I could see some wild possibility that they would and then back fill his spot. I don’t see it likely but I also could see the padres thinking they need a guy performs better in the postseason.
Rally Goose
Good chance they don’t MAKE the postseason without Cease, even if his postseason performance was a bummer.
Simm
True that’s why they would only do so if they can get prospects back to help them replace him. Once again highly unlikely they deal him but between the arb money and the prospects they could look at trying to upgrade him this offseason.
Rally Goose
Would have to be better prospects than Samuel Zavala and friends otherwise it’s just a waste.
Simm
Not necessarily because they did get a useful year from him already. Plus prospects failure rates are so high who know if a lesser prospect becomes more than Zavala.
I don’t see it likely but there is a chance after watching two postseason starts from Cease that the padres say let’s get back what we can and use the money/prospects to bring in someone’s else. Once again not likely but who knows.
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Trade him for Bo Bichette and George Springer
Gwynning
One of us is a giant Blue Jay fan, huh?
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Who wouldn’t want 1 year of a good shortstop with an injury history and 2 years of the remains of a right fielder
Gwynning
Me if the price is ROTY Merrill!
MysteryWhiteBoy13
What if the Jays add in Manoah?
Gwynning
We’ll have to weigh that offer… nope, the scales are still imbalanced.
davemlaw
The Padres will probably receive an extra draft pick since Merrill was with the team the whole year and should finish Top 2 in the ROY.
If SDP had signed him to an extension before the season started they wouldn’t get that extra pick. They ended up doing well.
Missouri, America’s toilet.
Feel bad for the brewers and cubs. I feel like Merrill and Skenes will get top 2 but chourio and imanaga would be streets ahead of most other ROY picks outside of this year.
Rally Goose
Brewers can’t get a PPI pick for Chourio because they extended him before he debuted.
Missouri, America’s toilet.
I know. But, it sucks for a rookie like him or imanaga to have such a great debut, that would be head and shoulders ROY in prior years, only to be third or fourth.
holecamels35
I wonder if these rules or incentives made it so that team were more willing to play these guys early who were up to the task?
Imanaga not included because he was an international signing.
It was still a gamble to say these 20 year olds were ready but they sure as hell performed as such. Holliday was in the same boat and didn’t do as well. There’s no exact science to it. Padres promote their guys earlier than everyone, sometimes to pump their trade value, other times just because they want them to play.
Rally Goose
Preller has never manipulated service time. He got the most attention for doing it with Tatis but there was also Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Lucchesi, Jake Cronenworth, Ryan Weathers, CJ Abrams, etc.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
On the one hand, they have Merrill under team control for five more seasons, no matter what they do now.
On the other hand, they cannot let the first truly homegrown superstar of the Preller era slip through the organization’s fingers (Tatis notwithstanding; I still think Tatis counts since they traded for him before he had ever played an out of pro ball).
Merrill played more games in his rookie season than Tatis has ever made it through in one campaign, on top of his stellar numbers. He can justifiably ask for Tatis money.
Whatever it takes, get it done.
Simm
Yeah Merrill is t going anywhere anytime soon…they will get a deal done with him.
Rally Goose
Tatis fails to qualify as homegrown. Still a great asset to the team regardless.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Tatis, Jr. has been in the Padres’ system since he was 17. I think that does qualify.
baseballpurist
I wouldn’t have that conversation until the end of next season if I’m SD.
YankeesBleacherCreature
And that conversation would get more expensive as he inches closer towards arb.
Simm
Exactly
metsin4
Why are teams wanting to lock players up with 5 or 6 years of control?A lot can happen in that time.
Simm
Because they can get them at a lower aav pre-arb. Gives team price clarity towards the tax.
metsin4
Great and if it goes the other way they have a long bad contract. Bad contracts seem to outnumber good contracts in baseball. Merrill will probably be great for years but we thought that about others who got hurt or just regressed. Long contracts should be avoided except for extreme circumstances.
holecamels35
I’m not sure the exact numbers, some have failed, but not that many at a huge dollar amount, but I’d take the bet on a long term deal to a young guy rather than a 28-30 year old vet who you may only get 2-3 good years out of. Bryant and Rendon were very steady players who were useless form day one of their deals, that scares me from ever signing someone for over 3 years.
Simm
Xander is on his way to being an example of why you don’t sign guys at or near 30 for production of years past. Now with Merrill if they can at least buy out a couple of years of free agency it drastically reduces the risk.
Gwynning
It’s a gamble that the player is great for an extended period of time and therefore you cover a few FA years “on the cheap”
Gwynning
Too
metsin4
That’s the point. It’s a gamble. Why gamble?
Gwynning
Sometimes you win!
Simm
Like tatis, he oleoild be a free agent after next year if they didn’t extend him. Do you think he signs a deal as a free agent for less than 24m aav the padres have him for.
There is always risk but that’s why you take that risk.
Rally Goose
Funny how people tossed up a bunch of roadblocks when Preller didn’t get the extra year of Tatis but the suspension would have pushed his FA back by a year anyway had the extension not made the discussion null and void.
C Yards Jeff
Where’s the money coming from to extend him? 12 months ago a story or 2 here said the Pads had to take out a 50 mil loan to cover payroll. And when they tried to borrow another 100 mil, MLB prevented it.
Gwynning
It was a whole lotta hot media air. The loan was real but earmarked for a planned enhancement.
(Gallagher Square)
2023 payroll had actually been paid in full long before the loan, but everyone kept repeating the “cover payroll” myth. Anyway, 56 sellouts and 4th in attendance speak to the popularity of the team in greater SD, yet also portends the immense fiscal strength of the squad… and the CBT is reset.
Rally Goose
The loan wasn’t to cover payroll. It was taken out after all players received their last paychecks for 2023.
Simm
Literally an article the other day that the padres said they are in good financial condition going forward.
What that means as far as increasing payroll again who knows but for now they are in good shape. Most of money is coming in from continued ticket price increase and drawing record crowds.
Rally Goose
Article should also note that if they had extended him before his debut they would not receive an extra draft pick in the 2025 MLB draft but now they will.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
They would’ve been set if they signed him to an extension