The Padres saw their season come to an end last night at the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, but despite that disappointing end the 2024 campaign was nonetheless littered with plenty of bright spots for fans in San Diego. Perhaps the most significant among those was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Training as a shortstop prospect with just 46 games at the Double-A level under his belt and turned a surprise Opening Day assignment in center field into a phenomenal rookie season.
Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.
That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.
While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.
For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.
Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
AJ playin’ CBT games, wouldn’t surprise me to see them elevate back above in ’25. Bringing back Ha-Seong might be priority one, but extending Merrill would be HUGE too!
Yeah that’s my thoughts. If they signed him to extension last offseason they would have nearly certainly went over the tax line. Good news is they should be able to get a deal done this offseason.
I’ll take it one step further- the offer presented would have kept the Pads under, but Merrill chose to bet on himself. Smart kid, he definitely balled out! Keep the faith, Simm!
Reports are that if the padres offered a fair deal he would sign it today. So I’m not worried one minute about getting a deal done with him.
His fair deal and the Padres fair deal could be miles apart.
@Gwynning
I like Ha-Seong, but he ain’t priority number one.
Priority number one is bolstering the starting pitching in the wake of Musgrove’s Tommy John. Priority number two is figuring out Profar’s price and whether or not he is still worth it. Priority number three is sorting out extensions for King, Cease, Arraez, and Merrill, Merrill’s being the top long-term priority. The organization almost certainly will not move Cease or King if they can’t come to terms on extensions for them, and just ride out each pitcher’s last respective year of arbitration. Trading either of them would call into question the viability of still being in “win now” mode.
Ha-Seong Kim is probably not going to be a Padre anymore. I don’t see them breaking the bank for him given the other needs at hand.
I digress after an overstatement; an arm is P1, you’re absolutely right. Retaining signed players is important too, but HSK has more of a ticking clock aspect. I’d QO him and suspect he walks, then pivot to your extensions.
Starting pitching is definitely item one and each one of them is as a ticking clock as Kim. I just don’t see Kim back unless it’s a team friendly deal.
You still have 12 months to work on extending King and Arraez. I suspect Cease is walking, but I’m sure he’d listen to an offer. Ditto your thoughts on Kim; I don’t see us breaking the bank for him but we would welcome him back at “our” price.
Yeah I don’t see cease being extended. Hell if the padres didn’t need pitching so bad that would probably trade him this offseason. They might anyways for the right deal.
Kim probably accepts the QO if it is extended but I’d be tempted to extend it anyway. Letting him walk for nothing after rebuffing countless opportunities to capitalize on his trade value would be more than just a little embarrassing.
Why would the Padres trade Cease after giving up all that to get him when they have two rotation spots to fill? (three if they trade him)
Why I said they probably won’t trade cease. After his postseason performance I could see some wild possibility that they would and then back fill his spot. I don’t see it likely but I also could see the padres thinking they need a guy performs better in the postseason.
Good chance they don’t MAKE the postseason without Cease, even if his postseason performance was a bummer.
True that’s why they would only do so if they can get prospects back to help them replace him. Once again highly unlikely they deal him but between the arb money and the prospects they could look at trying to upgrade him this offseason.
Would have to be better prospects than Samuel Zavala and friends otherwise it’s just a waste.
Not necessarily because they did get a useful year from him already. Plus prospects failure rates are so high who know if a lesser prospect becomes more than Zavala.
I don’t see it likely but there is a chance after watching two postseason starts from Cease that the padres say let’s get back what we can and use the money/prospects to bring in someone’s else. Once again not likely but who knows.
Yes necessarily. You don’t trade for a guy to flip him for less.
Aloha bradduh, I’m still upset by SD’s departure! Yu-san was the only pitcher on either team with a quality start x2 in the series vs LA. As a Cubs fan I’m sorry about Cease! What the heck was wrong with him?! He gave up 8 earned runs in what 6 2/3 innings between 2 starts. 5 in the first game! I think your team needs to stabilize the rotation. I definitely would lock up Merrill. BTW up in the SF Bay Area, there was talk about signing Ha-Seong. With Buster as president now, not sure they still pursue him. Wish your team the best. Good pitching exposed LA’s holes/weaknesses. Your hitters just need to produce, not like my Cubs this past May-June, lol! Mahalo
I think Cease was just plain tired. Never an excuse out of the guy, he’s gritty af! Cheers kg, enjoy the offseason amigo! Aloha kamaaina
Trade him for Bo Bichette and George Springer
One of us is a giant Blue Jay fan, huh?
Who wouldn’t want 1 year of a good shortstop with an injury history and 2 years of the remains of a right fielder
Me if the price is ROTY Merrill!
What if the Jays add in Manoah?
We’ll have to weigh that offer… nope, the scales are still imbalanced.
MWB- You left out 2 words in that post.. Highly overpaid..
The Padres will probably receive an extra draft pick since Merrill was with the team the whole year and should finish Top 2 in the ROY.
If SDP had signed him to an extension before the season started they wouldn’t get that extra pick. They ended up doing well.
Brewers can’t get a PPI pick for Chourio because they extended him before he debuted.
I wonder if these rules or incentives made it so that team were more willing to play these guys early who were up to the task?
Imanaga not included because he was an international signing.
It was still a gamble to say these 20 year olds were ready but they sure as hell performed as such. Holliday was in the same boat and didn’t do as well. There’s no exact science to it. Padres promote their guys earlier than everyone, sometimes to pump their trade value, other times just because they want them to play.
Preller has never manipulated service time. He got the most attention for doing it with Tatis but there was also Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Lucchesi, Jake Cronenworth, Ryan Weathers, CJ Abrams, etc.
I don’t feel too bad for the Brewers considering they already have Chourio under contract for ten years for probably less than half of what it’s going to take the Padres to extend Merrill.
If SDP had signed him to an extension before the season started they wouldn’t get that extra pick.
===========================
The extra pick won’t make up for the amount of salary they now have to pay. In the pre-season, Merrill would’ve been lucky to get the Chourio package ($82M/8 with two team options). Now he might be looking at something closer to the Tatis package.
They should have agreed in principle on an extension before the season started but waited until the day after the season started to announce it.
On the one hand, they have Merrill under team control for five more seasons, no matter what they do now.
On the other hand, they cannot let the first truly homegrown superstar of the Preller era slip through the organization’s fingers (Tatis notwithstanding; I still think Tatis counts since they traded for him before he had ever played an out of pro ball).
Merrill played more games in his rookie season than Tatis has ever made it through in one campaign, on top of his stellar numbers. He can justifiably ask for Tatis money.
Whatever it takes, get it done.
Yeah Merrill is t going anywhere anytime soon…they will get a deal done with him.
Tatis fails to qualify as homegrown. Still a great asset to the team regardless.
Tatis, Jr. has been in the Padres’ system since he was 17. I think that does qualify.
@YankeesBleacherCreature Nope!
Lol. Whatever floats your boat.
Tatis only had a cup of coffee with the White Sox minors…he went up and got cooked through all minor league levels of SD.
He should be considered and rightfully is SD’s homegrown…if the White Sox let him cook even just a lil within their system…there very likely would’ve been no deal, as they would’ve seen the talent they were actually trading away and thought twice about even thinking about giving him up.
@Sharocko That’s… not what homegrown means.
When you look at a guys baseball reference page and he doesn’t have a single PA or IP for another team it does make them feel homegrown even if the team they play for didn’t technically draft or sign him.
They 100% get credit for developing him. Saying he isn’t homegrown while factoring in the above seems like splitting hairs.
@padrepapi Still not what homegrown means.
@padrepapi It really is indeed a technicality.
I would amend the definition of “homegrown” to include “players for whose rights you traded for before they had ever played any pro ball”.
It wouldn’t be functionally different if MLB had NFL-style draft day trading, and the Pads had traded for Tatis after he had been drafted by another team (like the Chargers traded Eli for Rivers, et al).
But, people are going to plant their flags on the “draftee” definition, for better or worse.
I think you and everyone else has demonstrated that there is no agreed upon definition for “homegrown”.
Is homegrown only draft and develop? Does it include international signings or NDFAs? Does it disallow low minors or developmental league lottery ticket trades? Draft and develop seems unnecessarily narrow unless one is writing a puff piece during the offseason.
For example, Colin Rea was drafted by the Padres, came up through their minor league system, made his debut with the Padres in late 2015, was traded to the Marlins at the deadline the following year, got injured in his first start as a Marlin and got traded back to the Padres 3 days later. He was technically homegrown before the two trades but not after.
A cautionary tale for you. In 2022 Jeremy Pena took over from Carlos Correa as the Astros’ shortstop – big shoes to fill – , and promptly had an outstanding year, winning a gold glove and World Series MVP.
Since then, he has been very ordinary and I would not be surprised to see him traded.
One year does not a career make.
Well let’s look at Pena, who was 24 when he debuted. His xBA, xwOBA & xSLG that season were .252/.304/.402, a tick under his actual numbers, but basically on par with his actual production, which he’s mirrored the 2 years after, though has seen declining defense
Compared to Merrill debuting at 21 with advanced Xpected stats of .308/.376/.547 …. Yes, he underperformed on what the advanced metrics predict. Meaning that even if he does take a step back or fail to progress further, it wouldn’t be outlandish to expect a repeat season or close to it
I wouldn’t have that conversation until the end of next season if I’m SD.
And that conversation would get more expensive as he inches closer towards arb.
Exactly
Not if he falls off next year.
Not necessarily. If he plays well, sure. But otherwise, waiting a year to see if he’s the real deal might be a gamble worth taking.
Take Merrill’s teammate Cronenworth for example. Padres extended him 7/$80 million prior to 2023. If they’d waited until after 2023, that price would have gone down. They’re at different points in their young career but the principle is the same.
@rct It’s an apples and oranges comp. Crowenworth wasn’t extended until he was 29. Merrill just played his age 21 season.
I completely understand the strategy and trying to lock up what seems to be a young superstar. But we’ve also seen guys like Rodriguez and Carroll hit a wall. Doesn’t mean they won’t rebound, but it’s a big gamble to take on someone that has only been very good for one season.
I’m just saying that San Diego has several years of control. If he does it again next season and we’re all convinced he’s going to be a stud for years to come, then you have several more years to work out a long-term contract with him.
If SD is worried about regression, they can shoot for an option/incentive contract like Julio Rodriguez
But Merrill is not going to get less expensive, assuming this year is his baseline performance. The price tag will go up every year they wait.
You want to give him 209 million guaranteed? Julio Rodriguez shows how a player can regress. 37 extra base hits isn’t great for that contract
@metsin4
Yes. That would be a bargain. Decent chance Merrill would not take that low of a guarantee right now, but it is completely off the table if his 2025 as good as his 2024.
If the Pads can somehow sign Merril for at or less than what they paid to sign Tatis, they will have come away winners.
Merrill won’t sniff Tatis money in an extension at this point and likely ever. And no, I don’t agree that there is a decent chance he turns down 209m.
Tatis signed his deal after he had 2 years of service. He missed around half the season in his first year but played the entirety of his 2nd year, but that was the 60 game season so even with 2 years of service he only played in 144 games, 12 less than Merrill played in 2024.
Merrill had a 130 wRC+, 24 HR’s in 156 games.
Tatis had a 151 wRC+ both years with 39 HR’s in 144 games.
Merrill having an additional year of control and not having the sophomore year under his belt to match or exceed his rookie year like Tatis did make it out of reach IMO. Tatis had a historic start to his career. Merrill’s was excellent, just not to that degree.
I think a deal more like Corbin Carroll’s 8/111m with a 25m option is a better comp. He secures a big bag, the team gets additional years of control and he gets to hit free agency at 29 or 30. Carroll only had 30 mlb games under his belt, with the same 130 wRC+ as Merrill, but he was a more highly ranked prospect (#1 or 2 depending on the source). Merrill might get a bump since he did it for a full season, but I think 1hat is more the range of what it would look like.
Yeah Carroll comp is pretty good. I would expect Merrill to get more than Carroll because of his full season and prices generally only go up.
@padrepapi Merrill is at 1st or 2nd for Padre rookies in franchise history for all major offensive categories. The start to his career has been excellent and historic, and he made it through the whole season. He led his team in WAR on top of it.
Merrill should, at a bare minimum, settle for no less than $200 million, but I still think he can justifiably shoot for Tatis money. It will be great for us if he settles for less, but clearly Merrill is not itching to sign a contract just to get paid immediately. He’s already bet on himself once and won by not signing an extension prior to the start of 2024.
Why are teams wanting to lock players up with 5 or 6 years of control?A lot can happen in that time.
Because they can get them at a lower aav pre-arb. Gives team price clarity towards the tax.
Great and if it goes the other way they have a long bad contract. Bad contracts seem to outnumber good contracts in baseball. Merrill will probably be great for years but we thought that about others who got hurt or just regressed. Long contracts should be avoided except for extreme circumstances.
I’m not sure the exact numbers, some have failed, but not that many at a huge dollar amount, but I’d take the bet on a long term deal to a young guy rather than a 28-30 year old vet who you may only get 2-3 good years out of. Bryant and Rendon were very steady players who were useless form day one of their deals, that scares me from ever signing someone for over 3 years.
Xander is on his way to being an example of why you don’t sign guys at or near 30 for production of years past. Now with Merrill if they can at least buy out a couple of years of free agency it drastically reduces the risk.
Xander is on his way to being an example of why you don’t sign guys at or near 30 for production of years past.
======================
You want as many prime years as sub-prime. With Xander, SD was only getting 2-3 good years and 8-9 declining years. OTOH, with Tatis, you still get another 5++ prime years, and only 3-4 sub-prime years.
That’s the way to do it.
It’s a gamble that the player is great for an extended period of time and therefore you cover a few FA years “on the cheap”
Too
That’s the point. It’s a gamble. Why gamble?
Sometimes you win!
Like tatis, he oleoild be a free agent after next year if they didn’t extend him. Do you think he signs a deal as a free agent for less than 24m aav the padres have him for.
There is always risk but that’s why you take that risk.
Funny how people tossed up a bunch of roadblocks when Preller didn’t get the extra year of Tatis but the suspension would have pushed his FA back by a year anyway had the extension not made the discussion null and void.
I wouldn’t use Tatis as an example. He hasn’t come close to living up to that contract. Moved off short. Suspended for performance enhancing drugs. Hurt all the time.
Often you lose. One really bad long term contract is hard to come back from. Not worth the risk. That’s why all these young players are jumping on them. Their not betting on themselves and know the odds are long for sustained longevity at a high level.
@metsin4 Moved off short to become a platinum glove weapon in right field.
There is no discounting Tatis needs to stop getting hurt/suspended. But the jury is still a long way out on the contract. Tatis is still a force when he is able to play.
The Pads at least didn’t have to pay him while he was suspended.
All 29 teams would trade for Tatis without the Padres eating any money if they had the chance.
LOL
Come ‘on
LOL I don’t know if there’s even one team that would.
I have no doubt that every team that spends money would take tatis and his entire contract right now.
He is a great right fielder and has a career ops+ of 140.
He has mad some injuries and made some dumb decisions that have kept him from being a top 5 players in baseball but he is still a monster on the field and hopefully has learned some lessons. He is also only 25 years old.
How much money do you think teams would give to someone who was suspended for performance enhancing drugs for a season and his OPS dropped significantly by around 200 points in the two years returning. Not to mention the player having significant injury history to go along with it. His value is in line with Cody Bellinger.
He had wrist surgery and a torn labrum. Usually takes a year or two to fully recover from shoulder surgery. His ops+ was down pretty badly his first year back but it has started to rebound last year especially the second after the first two months of the 24 season.
Tatis had a 198 wrc+ in June and missed 2 months with basically a broken leg. Came back in sept with without a minor league stint and had a 140 wrc+ in Sept. Plus had a great postseason.
Will he have a 160 wrc+ next year who knows but I wouldn’t rule it out. I feel very confident it will greater than 140 next year.
Even with his bad 2023 season he still had a 5 war. Once again he is 25 years old. If he was a free agent in a year from now at 26 and had even an avg season he would get paid more than he is even making now.
@metsin4 Nonsense. Three years younger, better numbers than Bellinger across the board in fewer games played.
The only knock on Tatis remaining is the health. He’ll put up 5 WAR seasons easily for the next five years if he can finally get that square.
Moving on.
Simm;
Even “every team that spends money” has a budget, as well as can face penalties for overspending.
Mr. Tatis, Jr. has a guaranteed contract for THE NEXT 10 YEARS!
How many teams will have the same manager for the next
10 years? The same FO Baseball heads? Even the same ownership group?
Then we factor in the mans’ history of injuries and questionable behavior.
This is not rotisserie league. This is a billion dollar business that’s constantly changing on thee field and off. A bad decision on this can cost numerous people their careers.
I doubt 2-3 teams would take on the contract. And that’s before we consider what sort of influence he’ll have with
his teammates.
We each have our opinions but I disagree with yours.
He is a great right fielder and has a career ops+ of 140
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You probably shouldn’t count the PEDs years. He’s at 118 over the past two years,
You have no idea if he used peds pre suspension. He technically never played a game before being suspended since he was injured to start that season. It’s likely he took them while recovering from his surgeries.
Saying he was on peds his first few seasons when I’m sure he was being tested is just speculation at best.
Yes his numbers hitting wise were down in 2023 he was also coming back from two major surgeries.
Because they stand to make more money from keeping a marketable young star around for the long haul than they will spend on keeping them.
Where’s the money coming from to extend him? 12 months ago a story or 2 here said the Pads had to take out a 50 mil loan to cover payroll. And when they tried to borrow another 100 mil, MLB prevented it.
It was a whole lotta hot media air. The loan was real but earmarked for a planned enhancement.
(Gallagher Square)
2023 payroll had actually been paid in full long before the loan, but everyone kept repeating the “cover payroll” myth. Anyway, 56 sellouts and 4th in attendance speak to the popularity of the team in greater SD, yet also portends the immense fiscal strength of the squad… and the CBT is reset.
The loan wasn’t to cover payroll. It was taken out after all players received their last paychecks for 2023.
Literally an article the other day that the padres said they are in good financial condition going forward.
What that means as far as increasing payroll again who knows but for now they are in good shape. Most of money is coming in from continued ticket price increase and drawing record crowds.
Padres had the credit-worthiness from the lender to borrow up to $100M. They wanted the whole sum but MLB nixed it down to $50MM. There was never a second loan request. This is really a non-story which was leaked and spun by the media. Every MLB team has/will borrow(ed) money at some point if the loan terms are favorable. The wealthy don’t spend their own money if they don’t need to.
Article should also note that if they had extended him before his debut they would not receive an extra draft pick in the 2025 MLB draft but now they will.
They would’ve been set if they signed him to an extension
Merrill had a great rookie season but Skenes was flat out dominant. Very good chance he would have gotten 200 strikeouts if he had made 2 or 3 more starts. I don’t see how Skenes doesn’t win the NL ROY award this year
Merrill, as a rookie, led his team in WAR, and contributed many game tying or go ahead hits to a playoff run.
Skenes was great. Maybe they should have a pitching and position player award for rookies.
But no rookie in the NL impacted his team like Merrill impacted his.
No denying skenes is great and worthy of winning the award. At the same time it’s just harder for a pitcher especially one that didn’t start the season with the club and was limited down the stretch to have the value that Merrill had. Playing everyday offensively and defensively at a high level has a greater impact. Skenes had a greater impact on the days he pitched but the other 4-5 games between starts and the month he missed to begin with makes Merrill the more impact rookie.
I don’t see how Skenes doesn’t win the NL ROY award this year
=========================
Skenes should be a lock. He should be #3 in C.Y. voting as well.
Merrill is worthy of a 4-6 even 7 year deal. He is the genuine article. SD might be paying a bit more after his stellar rookie season but he’s earned a good pay day.
If Jackson wins ROTY, which is very likely, Padres get rewarded with an extra pick no? I think AJ gets a deal done with this young man, he’s worth it.
His odds of winning rookie of the year are very low. Skenes has that locked up. They will get compensation for him finishing 2.
@metsin4
foxsports.com/stories/mlb/2024-mlb-odds-al-nl-rook…
nola.com/sports/betting/nl-rookie-of-the-year-odds…
Skenes might still win, but there is no way he has it locked. Merrill’s very strong second half more than moved the needle.
As a betting man, I’m taking Merill’s 5.3 fWAR over Skenes’ 4.3 fWAR. bWAR has their value inversed. The edge goes to Merill helping his make the playoffs narrative. Both are deserving.
There is more too it then WAR. Especially when they are both completely opposite of each other. It should tell you how random and biased the WAR stat is. Skenes has a superstar expectation and exceeded that. MLB had him start the all star game for a reason. The talk of Merrill winning rookie of the year was the same as Lindor winning MVP. It was fun but had no reality to it whatsoever.
@metsin4 Merrill literally was the favorite for over a month, from the end of August through September. Some pundits still have him as the favorite.
It is important to acknowledge reality.
It is important to acknowledge reality.
============================
1-Skenes gets more publicity.
2-While Merrill gets credit for playing the entire season, no in the world would trade Skenes straight-up for Merrill. Skenes is one of the best rookies I’ve ever seen.
It’s if he places top 3 which I can almost guarantee he will even if the hardware ultimately goes to Paul Skenes.
It would have to be extremely backloaded. Padres caught lightning in a bottle this year with Profar and Merrill earning peanuts.
But they really hamstrung themselves financially with their aging roster. Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Darvish alone are owed $57MM in 2025.
It would be backloaded since his next two years he would be getting league minimum. What you can’t backload is the aav which would raise their tax dollars instantly. The padres are already up against the tax for line for the 2025 season.
Simm;
I get that Pellers’ plan seems to be that he’ll unload players with bad contracts and play youngsters that he drafts in
their place. However, to do so he’s going to have to give up something(s) of value to get teams to take those contacts on.
Not saying it can’t be done, but at some point things will explode. However, in the meantime: Enjoy!
The contracts of Xander and cronenworth would be tough to offload. Especially when you add in full or partial no trade clauses. The padres would have to eat a ton of money on those deals and or give away high end prospects. So it’s hard to see them doing so.
It will definitely be an interesting offseason for the padres.
As Simm said, backloading the cash component is fairly meaningless. This is, imo, a flaw in the CBA. Teams are penalized by locking in kids.
Without extension, Merrill will count maybe $1M against the cap next year. With an extension, it could be more like $15M. For contracts under control years, they should have a different amortization schedule.
These type of extensions hurt teams near or above the tax line the first few years. They help usually on the backend of the deals.
They could just use that year’s contract as the tax hit. All the money is guaranteed anyways.
Not sure why they don’t do that. If I remember correctly if a player is traded the team acquiring the player takes a tax hit of the aav left on the deal. Which makes trading player who has a backloaded deal harder to move. For example a player like tatis who has an aav of 24m on his deal if he is traded the last 5 years of his deal the acquiring team would have a tax hit well into the 30’s.
“interim control person”
That’s a new one
Late to comment. To clarify on compensation pick for rookie of the year. Your team does not get a comp pick for finishing second. Only first. If your top 100 rookie finishes top 3 in MVP or cy young next 3 seasons, you can also get a comp pick (only one). But, if player signs extension, or is traded, they are no longer eligible. As someone else mentioned, Chourio is excluded due to contract. Side note, Chourio was a beast for final 3/4 of the season.
Is he not represented by Scott Boras? I’d imagine that’s the case. Boras would be highly against an extension like this. Jackson Merrill is a smart kid not hiring Boras
LOL at the luxury tax. Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M and what’s their hit on that? It’s an accounting device at best, and a shield for the team owners to spend less in reality.