The Orioles enter the 2024-25 offseason on the heels of a disappointing end to their season where they fell out of the AL East race late in the year before failing to win a playoff game against the Royals during the Wild Card Series. While that disappointing end to the season in conjunction with the impending free agencies of key pieces like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander is surely worrisome for fans in Baltimore, there is one major silver lining regarding the club’s 2025 outlook: the impending return of closer Felix Bautista
Bautista, 29, was perhaps the single most dominant bullpen arm on the planet in 2023 when he made his first career All-Star appearance and pitched to a jaw-dropping 1.48 ERA with a 1.88 FIP with a ridiculous 46.4% strikeout rate in 61 innings of work. Unfortunately, the dominant closer underwent Tommy John surgery in early October of last year and missed not only the 2023 postseason but all of 2024, as well. He figures to be back on the mound for Baltimore in 2025, though, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko relayed earlier today that Bautista is currently on track to be “full-go” in time for Spring Training in February. That’s a great sign for the Orioles, particularly given the fact that their bullpen took a major step back this past year as they tried to replace Bautista in the closer role with veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who pitched quite well in the first half of the season but fell apart in mid-July, surrendering an 11.50 ERA with a 7.44 FIP in his final 18 innings of work before being designated for assignment in September.
Bautista may not be the only boost the club’s bullpen gets entering next year, either. The Orioles paid a hefty price to acquire lefty Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, surrendering well-regarded youngsters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to seal the deal. Rogers struggled badly in his first taste of action with the Orioles, however, surrendering 16 runs (15 earned) in 19 innings of work across four starts with the team before being demoted to Triple-A. That brutal stint in the club’s rotation raised some questions about the club’s future plans for Rogers, who is under control via arbitration through the end of the 2026 season. Kubatko offered some insight on the club’s thinking, noting that while the Orioles have not yet given up on the possibility that Rogers can pitch in the rotation the club also figures to weigh the value he could bring to the club as a long reliever.
That makes Rogers one of a handful of potential rotation options who will be fighting for a role with the big league club next spring. Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer all seem like to be part of the club’s rotation on Opening Day 2025, leaving two spots up for grabs. It seems likely that the Orioles will pursue an external addition either via free agency or on the trade market to fill at least one of those spots, but the club does have a handful of internal options for the back of their rotation even beyond Rogers. Albert Suarez enjoyed something of a breakout season in a swing role with the club at age-34, pitching to a solid 3.70 ERA in 133 2/3 innings of work this year while drawing 24 starts and making an additional eight relief appearances.
Other factors in the club’s rotation mix, if not out of Spring Training then at some point in 2025, figure to be youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, both of whom made their big league debuts in 2024 to somewhat lackluster results. McDermott surrendered three runs on five hits (including a homer) and two walks while striking out three in four innings of work during his lone big league appearance this year, while Povich surrendered a 5.20 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in sixteen starts with the Orioles this year. Despite those bumpy debuts, however, the youngsters could still be utilized either as depth in the rotation or as long relief options out of the bullpen should they fail to earn a spot in the rotation out of camp this spring.
One other potential bullpen arm Kubatko suggests could be worth keeping an eye on is veteran right-hander Nick Anderson. Anderson, 34, was once a highly-regarded hurler for the Rays but missed time in recent years due to elbow surgery, plantar fasciitis, and shoulder issues. He pitched 35 2/3 innings for the Royals this year with a middling 4.04 ERA but a worrisome 5.06 FIP before being released by the Royals in late July. Anderson joined the Orioles on a minor league deal in the final days of August, but made just two appearances at the Triple-A level before being sidelined due to an injury and ultimately failed to make the big league club. While Anderson is currently scheduled to reach free agency following the World Series, Kubatko suggests that the club could look to re-sign him, presumably on a fresh minor league deal.
Imagine where the orioles would be if they traded for someone like yusei kikuchi or even Frankie Montas instead of Rogers
We’d probably be exactly where we already are now: eliminated.
Burnes and Eflin gave us 2 shots at winning a ballgame but the bats completely ghosted them.
If they had another good starter in the regular season they could’ve won the AL east and never had to go against the royals in a short series
The starting pitching was not the reason for our late season swoon, it was primarily the offense.
Doesn’t matter. You would just be delaying the inevitable. You still need to generate runs to win ball games. Our lack of hitting and scoring runs was a bigger factor by the end of the year than our pitching.
Losing GRod to that lat thinger for the last 2 months was huge. That said; hitting was atrocious.
@King and @sad M’s fan
I shudder to think how we’d have matched up against Cleveland’s bullpen too with the mental state of our bats season end.
Doesn’t have to be one or the other, between add’l rotation help and trustworthy bat. Let’s get *both*, hopefully we’re no longer on the fixed income of a retiree. lol
Possibly/probably losing both Burnes and Taters might mean we need TWO of each. 🙂
O’s were 6th in wRC+ in 2nd half. Pitching sank to 18th after being 6th in 1st half.
O’s hitting was trash in the second half, and the postseason. That is fact. Don’t get it twisted. The pitching held up, the hitting didn’t. WRC+ doesn’t paint a meaningful pitcher – anyone with eyes could see the O’s offense sucked post-ASB.
Picture, not pitcher. If you can’t even spell the word, your opinion is moot.
Anything other than the stats is mistaken opinion.
Baseballislife – ever heard of autocorrect? Sue me.
The facts of the matter is the O’s blew it because their offense sucked. All they could do was hit solo shots. Zero situational hitting for HALF the year.
It is starkly apparent that you have no clue what you’re talking about 🙂
The stats show clearly that the offense didn’t suck. I can post more but apparently you think you know more than what reality shows is true. I’m sorry that you are so delusional.
The stats are buoyed by solo home runs.
The offense did, in fact, suck.
The only delusional one in this comment thread is you bud.
Keep displaying your lack of awareness, it’s precious and good entertainment.
Yes because the pitching trades are the reason they scored 1 run in 18 innings.
The Eflin trade was the single best of the season. Just stop – pleas
@tuck
I agree with you.
People are so pissy about the Rogers deal that they’ll shoehorn any hot take into their own narrative. Stowers was never going to get a PT and we did not know at the time that the IF was going to all go to the IL at the same time for Norby.
The Maryland state lotto’s tag line for years was: “you gotta play, to win”. I think both the Rogers and Irvine trades were reasonable risks and picked up controllable pieces. Not every pick up pays immediate dividends.
Armchair GMs and their huberis…
Add Hangnail and Dandruff to Nick Anderson’s woes…but he went to Dr. Vinny Boom Botz…Anderson was inteally rough shape….but he is okay now and ready to roll in 2025
Bautista, Dominguez, Coulombe, Cano, and Soto could make for a pretty gnarly bullpen next year.
Soto is a liability, not a strength
Soto was pitching like a strength after he spent a couple weeks with the O’s pitching coaches.
Firmly believe Rogers could regain his early career form with a trip to the famed “Driveline.” He doesn’t look like he relies upon huge 2 seam movement and he is consistently missing spots with his 91/92 mph heater. If he could regain some velo and get up to 94/95 that could make a big difference to him. He’s still at best a 4/5 starter even if they don’t resign Burnes.
Wanted to shout out Soto as well at end of season. Really righted the ship after early struggles in orange and black. Obviously bullpen arms are very hit or miss but he has potential to be a big piece next year if they keep him.
Yeah, I also hope we don’t non-tender Soto this offseason. I think it is worth the modest investment to see if the guy we saw after his initial struggles after the trade was the real deal, because that guy would be a nice weapon in the late innings next year.
The Orioles need to show more of a sense of urgency in 2025 and I mean both the higher ups as well as the players. The talent is there but 2024 was a step back. Winning a playoff series would have went a long way towards their legitimacy but they couldn’t get it done in 2024. Either spend money or make some more big trades they gotta do something.
If any non-NY/LA/other big market team was going to swoop in and hijack the Soto sweepstakes, the Orioles are probably the team that makes the most sense- zero long-term contract commitments; tons of cheap, cost-controlled, high end talent; a vacancy in RF (and a snug home RF for a guy with fairly poor range); the need for an elite professional hitter in the 3 hole to keep the entire offensive engine pumping and purring; very few obvious places to upgrade; tons of money (hypothetically) available.
It won’t happen of course, but if Dave plans to flex at all as an owner, Soto is probably the guy to target.
I agree he’s a great fit but the Yankees are going to sign Soto.
I have the Mets on my bingo card but I agree that it isn’t going to happen.
It just shouldn’t be for lack of effort, IMO.
Pitching, Pitching!! Trade for some. Pirates loaded with young mlb ready pitchers. Trade a couple bat’s for some.
Mayo and Kjerstad for Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller.
Hancock stinks.
Pirates can put together better than that!
That might get Mayo alone but probably not
Dice – just shut up. Hitting is the O’s problem.
They will sign FA pitchers. Zero question. Fried, Snell, Evoaldi, etc. They’ll be in on all of them.
Dealing with the offensive collapse is the tricky part. 80% of the collapse was Adley, 20% Mountcastle and injuries.
Nothing can be done about Adley. He’s either an All Star C or he’s below average. That was the first half/second half gap. Figuring out what they can expect out of Mayo, Mountcastle and Kjerstad and finding some veteran bat insurance is the challenge. Teoscar is definitely a possibility, but so is a trade for a Castro, Yelich, etc. Elias will make big moves and money won’t be a problem.
Money has been a problem for years. Last offseason they should have spent and they didn’t. I will believe money is not a problem when I see it.
Another stupid Blackpink comment that ignores that past years effectively do not matter – that was the Angelos era and the team was for sale last offseason. This is the first postseason under Rubenstein.
That doesn’t mean everything is going to change and the team will suddenly start to spend. Yoh hope it does but it doesn’t make it true.
First postseason? That’s a funny way of wording that……
First offseason, whatever. Postseason was not inaccurate either. New ownership has the potential to change literally everything. But go on pretending it didn’t happen and that it’s just Angelos business as usual.
I have explained this to you several times already, BITA.
Last offseason, John Angelos was in control of the organization and he was an unabashed, unapologetic penny pincher. This offseason, Dave Rubenstein is the man in charge, and he has repeatedly indicated that he is going to increase spending because he’s an old man and wants a WS championship ASAP.
Stubbornly ignoring that to continue pushing a dead narrative about the Orioles that was only ever actually true under the greedy a**hole who is now gone (John Angelos) is really bizarre.
You believe what you want. I will believe they will spend big when it happens no sooner.
It’s not a matter of belief. The data exists.
The only time in the last 30 years when the Orioles did not spend on free agents was when John Angelos was in charge for the 5 years prior to this offseason, and he has no say whatsoever in the Orioles’ affairs now.
The Orioles spent around $170 million on payroll within the last decade, in 2018, which was good for top 10 or just outside of it, so there’s no real reason to think that they can’t at least regularly spend in the 10-20 range with a new billionaire owner who is also a lifelong fan of the club and wants a WS trophy ASAP.
I hope they do spend. Let’s leave it at that.
Okay, but I will still call it out if I see it again, and next time I will bring a fairly exhaustive list of notable Orioles free agent expenditures from the early-mid 1990s through John Angelos assuming control after the 2018 season to further bury the false narrative of the Orioles never spending.
I never said the Orioles never spend. You said that then argued against it. I said they haven’t spent the last couple years when they should have. Particularly last offseason they should have spent and they didn’t do it. If they do this offseason good for you.
At bare minimum, you’re riffing on that narrative to suit your own purposes.
The bottom line is that the reason the Orioles weren’t spending the last few years was because of John Angelos using the franchise as his own personal piggy bank and preparing for the sale. Period. His father Peter spent all through the 90s, 00s, and 10s, and Rubenstein has flatly said that he is going to spend in pursuit of a WS, and since there is about $80 million between our current projected 2025 payroll and our franchise record payroll from 2018, I fully expect the Orioles to be in on some of the bigger names in free agency this winter, particularly on the pitching side.
What purpose would I have to say that? I have no other motive here. I am a Cardinals fan I have no bias towards the Orioles one way or the other.
Hopefully for your sake they start spending.
“Money has been a problem for years. Last offseason they should have spent and they didn’t. I will believe money is not a problem when I see it.”
The specific reason for this has been explained to you multiple times by multiple people, and yet you still act as if it is some kind of mystery or that it is somehow preposterous to say that the Orioles are going to go back to spending like they did for the last few decades now that the cheapskate that was in control is gone. It’s very strange behavior and suggests that you have some kind of angle or axe to grind, but maybe not. I will have to take your word for that.
You keep acting like you know the team is going to spend when you don’t. And how much is the right amount? I don’t think either one of us knows that nobody does. I know they should have spent the last 2 offseasons and they didn’t. I know that I said it at the time and with the benefit of hindsight it’s true. If they spend this offseason again good for you.
Who do you think the Orioles will sign this offseason? How much do you think they add to the payroll? Burnes and Santander are 2 of the biggest free agents they need to sign both of them just to get back to last year. What do you think they will do? Say so and we will see if it happens.
There it is again. Very odd.
And of course I don’t know what the specific number will be, but I do know that we are about $80 million below our franchise record payroll from 2018 and that the *sole* reason we weren’t spending in recent years is now completely gone from the organization, and that the new billionaire Orioles fan who took his place wants a trophy and has *explicitly* said that payroll capacity is going back up in pursuit of that trophy.
But somehow that isn’t enough data for you to conclude that spending is probably going back up. Bizarre.
Hoping for the best this off-season… love this kind of answer from Rubenstein when it comes to the balance between the business and fandom of ownership. Later in the interview, he notes that he’s 75 and isn’t likely to have 20 more years to field a champion team so he may have to “speed up” the process.
The man doesn’t make stupid business decisions but he understands that running a team like Fisher and Reinsdorf, who are trying to maximize their rate of return, isn’t really the best way to go either.
Hoping for a solid offseason even if not spectacular (Burnes re-signing would be spectacular).
Heading into the offseason, this is so refreshing versus John Angelos’ verbal diarrhea in the past.
—
From a recent NPR interview:
“RUBENSTEIN: Well, it is a business and has been in business since the time that professional baseball was created, but it’s not a business that is as profitable as other things that you could do with your money. If I wanted to maximize the amount of money that I was going to put into this kind of venture, I could put that amount of money into venture capital or private equity and probably make a higher rate of return. So the highest rate of return isn’t what you do when you’re looking to invest in a baseball team. There’s psychic benefits. You enjoy being a fan.”
That is one of the most encouraging things a fan could hear from an owner. The other is that they will let the baseball people do there jobs and not interfere. Rubenstein has said both.
“ I could put that amount of money into venture capital or private equity and probably make a higher rate of return”
Exactly this. I’ve been saying that. Rubinstein doesn’t need the orioles to make money like John Angelos did. The law firm wasn’t making anywhere near the amount of money it used to from the class action asbestos suits. He ran the O’s to make more money.
I doubt Elias will go stupid and I don’t think he should but Rubinstein can spend and plug holes. Welcome change for sure.
Rubenstein has been hosting a Bloomberg financial show for years and one of the biggest philanthropists around. He didn’t buy the O’s for the sake of making money. Fwiw, I know one of his family members and have met him and his family on several occasions. All really down-to-earth people.
John Angelos never worked in the law firm.
if that’s correct, that might be because he never passed the bar after law school.
Correct but he wasn’t the only Angelos who owned the team. The law firm made all their money on class actions suits. Largely driven by the asbestos poor working quality suits. Those have largely dried up.
The Orioles and MASN were the primary profit centers for the family. Rubinstein has way more money and a business that makes far more money outside of the O’s.
When he died, Peter Angelos’ estate was valued at $3.1 billion according to court records. About $1.7 billion of that was the Orioles and MASN. $140 million of that was his partnership share in the law firm. The rest was real estate holdings.
Link that article then. That’s at least $1B higher than anything I’ve seen. Angelos’ RE holdings consisted of a ton of declining value office buildings.
Look at the court filings.
Same jbigz, the system being how it is the position he seems to be taking here is about as encouraging as one could hope to hear from a new team owner. If I had that kind of money and could buy a team, I wouldn’t be the least bit concerned about throwing a few mill extra on a giant pile of money. Would try and basically run the team like a nonprofit and put as much revenue as possible back into the fan experience and building as good of a team as I could.
Dude seems to know he can’t take it with him and that he’s not gonna be around long enough to turn a profit on the acquisition cost anyway. If I was an o’s fan I’d be pretty pleased by how he’s messaging rn.
Baltimore finds a way to ruin everything, Their futility continues with the Red Sox and Blue Jays both dramatically improving leaving them to battle the Traveling Rays for the cellar.
That was a stupendous troll job, haha, yikes
How is Anderson worth keeping an eye on? He’s 34 and not likely to discover how to pitch now. Maybe Kubatko’s brother-in-law has a last name of Anderson?
A big nothing article.
Povich was good for the stretch run.
People overlook how good he was and miss that Young and McDermott were better than Povich in MILB. They have 3 potentially solid young starters that they don’t even need to count on if they add 2 mid to top tier FA pitchers.
That’s because most of these writers only have awareness of the stat line and not actual performance.
People have to stop saying the pose paid a “hefty price“ for Rogers.
Norby has a chance to be a solid role player, but his defense is limited and there was no spot for him in the Orioles lineup.
Stowers on the other hand, is not a major-league player, he’s 26 already, and he’s a lifetime to 40 hitter in AAA. These are the kind of guys that get traded at the deadline.
We’ll see what Rogers can do over the next two years, but either way this is an inconsequential trade for the Orioles.
I am ok with Anderson if on a cheap minor league deal. I’m ok with finding out this year if Rogers can be a workable MLB starter on projected 2.8M but he should be competing for a #5 starter role.
Those complaining about the post ASB hitting let me be more specific – TIMELY hitting was the issue. The O’s ranks in average, slugging, OPS and OPS+ were nearly the same at the end as they were in July (I remember seeing OPS+ at 120 at one point, it ended at 118 – by comparison, last year was 107, the 1983 club finished at 111). Too many solo home runs, not enough ability to hit with RISP, couldn’t get on base, couldn’t drive guys in. The big slugging innings kind of got scattered around. Can’t find it but willing to bet average guys left on base per game shot up. I think also instead of a bunch of wins 8-5 and 7-2 it was 11-1 then losing 3-2, 4-3. Same amount of runs, just in a distribution that resulted in less wins.
Pitching took a dump after the injuries. The Orioles were at one point #2 in the AL in pitching and finished 8th in ERA and a sub 100 ERA+ when it was around 110 earlier). Can’t go from Bradish-GrayRod-Means to Suarez-Kremer-Irvin/Povich without a drop off and without frying the pen. Eflin was a good move. I also felt very good about winning (except in August) whenever Burnes had the ball. Need 2 more Eflin or above guys. Bautista coming back plus the team’s ability to find effective bullpen arms, they should be fine.
It’ll be an interesting offseason.