Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

Seems like there’s enough on the major league team that adding to it should be the goal rather than trading good major leaguers with several more years of control to collect even more prospects that the organization has plenty of. Why not use some of those prospects to target good players from larger market teams that have poor farm systems and ask them to pay the freight on the contract? That keeps you within whatever budget restrictions you have.

Cubs maybe? Blue Jays? I think we also draw too many rigid boxes around teams sometimes. Maybe there are competitive teams with enough financial security that would be willing to give the farm system a boost using money. Maybe they have an internal replacement at a position and could make the more established player available in the right trade.
I’m a Toronto fan and they are declaring that they intend to contend, but they have sold while in that position before. The Teo trade to your Mariners as an example. Their farm system is not good and they have preached sustainability. They may as well have been the front office to make the 54% comment. It’s recently been reported that they actively shopped Bichette last offseason. You’d have to believe he’s healthy and ready for a bounce back, but I think he’d fit that park as he’s more of a hard sprayed line drive hitter than a fly ball guy. But if the Jays paid his $17.5m salary and you paid that value in prospects, there’s also the upside that he’d be QO eligible and could recoup a decent prospect. It sounds like these two teams couldn’t come together on Guerrero and certainly there’s less value in Guerrero now so it would look like a misstep for Toronto if they made it this offseason, but maybe Toronto still wanted the chance to come together on an extension. If that looks unlikely as the offseason goes on and they aren’t able to add meaningfully in other moves this offseason, their calculus on contention and holding him could change. He’s projected for $30m in arbitration. If they move Vlad, I see no reason why they would do anything other than retain the salary to get premium returns.
Or you could just use those prospects to get good players with multiple arb years left from the smaller-mid market teams. It doesn’t feel to me like the Mariners need to be trading away core pieces of the team to add more to the farm system.

There’s no rule that you can’t make multiple moves in an offseason. If the Cubs wanted pitching, they don’t have to get it in any one particular move. Maybe they move some prospects for pitching in one move, and then want to make way to graduate a prospect or two onto the major league team and could move a good major leaguer off the roster to create more flexibility and would like to replenish the system after trading and graduating the other prospects. You can be more than just a simple buyer or seller in the market.
In terms of not trading premium prospects for one year of control, you might not have to trade premium prospects. Seattle has plenty of good prospects beyond the very top of their system that would be valued by other teams. And whatever value you surrender is the value you receive. There comes a point where you’d like that to be condensed into more immediate impact. Wouldn’t you want a 6 win player for a year instead of a 2 win player for three years if you are giving up your better prospects? When you are trying to leverage a roster full of prime aged talent and you have a budget limitation and can afford to trade good prospects and still have an excellent farm system, I think you should be open to the Corbin Burnes trade over the Trevor Rogers one once in a while. You don’t only have to do one type of thing.
I don’t know. Maybe the grass is always greener on the other side, but that roster is full of guys in their prime. I wouldn’t weaken the major league team just to try to turn some depth in your area of strength to address a need. You have more value in prospects than you were probably forecasting to have, maybe trading some of that gets you to 59% this year while still being able to project 54% in subsequent years.

Bichette’s a tough sell and the deadline presents an opportunity for a better return. But even if he had a similar season to the previous one, I don’t think he’d have been worth elite prospects. I guess that depends on your definition of elite. I consider that the top tier of the prospect lists (60 for most of them right now). I think he’d be worth a tier below that and some secondary pieces. Now? Less than that, but if a team believed in a bounce back, they might still convince the Jays to just take what’s on offer rather than play it out until the deadline. Depends if there are multiple teams that believe in him more than the Jays do.
I understand why teams like the Rays, Brewers, and Guardians do what they do. It doesn’t feel like Seattle should be there right now. The revenue uncertainty is a factor but they can add still and it’s a roster worth adding to.