The Padres won 93 games and went into October as a trendy pick for a long playoff run. Their bats stalled out in the final two games against the Dodgers, sending them into an offseason that could see a decent amount of turnover with a handful of important free agents.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Manny Machado, 3B: $314MM through 2033 (including $35MM in remaining signing bonus payments)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $306MM through 2034
- Xander Bogaerts, 2B: $225MM through 2033
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $71MM through 2030
- Yu Darvish, RHP: $63MM through 2028
- Joe Musgrove, RHP: $60MM through 2027
- Robert Suarez, RHP: $26MM through 2027 (can opt out after '25)
- Yuki Matsui, LHP: $24.75MM through 2028 (can opt out after '26 barring intervening Tommy John surgery)
- Wandy Peralta, LHP: $13.15MM through 2027 (can opt out after '24, '25 and '26)
Option Decisions
- LHP Wandy Peralta can opt out of final three years and $13.15MM on his deal
- Team, SS Ha-Seong Kim hold $8MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $12.24MM to Red Sox as condition of Eric Hosmer trade
2025 financial commitments: $138MM
Total future commitments: $1.117 billion
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Luis Arraez (5.121): $14.6MM
- Dylan Cease (5.089): $13.7MM
- Tyler Wade (5.058): $900K
- Michael King (5.004): $7.9MM
- Adrian Morejon (4.140): $1.8MM
- Jason Adam (4.132): $5.3MM
- Luis Patiño (3.061): $800K
- Luis Campusano (2.144): $1.7MM
Non-tender candidates: Wade, Patiño
Free Agents
- Tanner Scott, Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Higashioka, Donovan Solano, David Peralta, Martín Pérez, Elias Díaz, Nick Ahmed
It seems like every offseason in San Diego results in a significant shakeup. This winter will probably be no exception, even if the Padres aren't going to make a single move that is as impactful as last winter's Juan Soto/Michael King blockbuster. Between a hefty arbitration class, a number of free agents who played key roles in 2024, and a late-season injury that dealt a hit to their rotation, there's a lot for the front office to address.
The offseason kicks off with option and qualifying offer decisions. There's not much intrigue with San Diego's pair of option calls. Wandy Peralta will forego his chance to opt out of the remaining $13.15MM on his free agent deal. Ha-Seong Kim will collect a $2MM buyout on his mutual option and test the market.
San Diego probably won't issue a QO to any of their free agents. The midseason trade renders Tanner Scott ineligible, not that the Friars were likely to offer a $21.05MM commitment to a reliever anyhow. Kim once seemed like an easy call for the QO, but his late-season labrum surgery makes that too risky. The only other candidate would be Jurickson Profar, who'll be one of the tougher free agents to value after a career year. If the Padres expect Profar to repeat this year's production, he'd be worth the QO price. Profar's career has been wildly inconsistent, though, and there's probably not enough payroll space to offer the first-time All-Star more than $21MM while addressing multiple holes on the roster.
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I Believe We Can Win
Replace Profar, NO QO
Trade Cease, sell high, clear 14 mill off payroll
Bring back Perez, possibly sign Kikuchi?
Bogaerts at SS, cronenworth at 2B, Arraez at 1B.
Bring in a bat DH. Ozuna? Turner? Pederson? Martinez?
Call it an off season.
Blackpink in the area
I would put Arraez at DH and go get a 1b there are a lot of 1b available this offseason. And they gotta find a catcher. Can’t trade Cease. Wouldn’t bring back Perez. Kikuchi might make sense sure.
Gwynning
No QOs this year, I (almost) guarantee it.
I’d keep Cease- you’re not going to find a TOR for less, and a TOR guy is needed beyond King and Yu. Add on the margins, bring back Perez to be a 5/6 like Waldron and Vasquez and the depth should be fine. I’d look to add Springs from Tampa- AJ picks their pocket more often than not. Bring Wade back for Utility again and everything should be peachy.
padrepapi
Keeping Cease seems like an easy decision. His 224 k’s and 1.07 whip were only matched by Peavy once or twice as a Padre. One of the games most durable arms when they really need a bankable 30+ start. Getting a great 4 or 5 win season out of him for 14m and a being almost a sure thing QO recipient providing a quality prospect after he leaves seems great to me.
Only way I’d trade him would be for a package that included an arm like Musgrove when they got him that has 2-3 years of control and has already proven to be a quality starter with upside for more.
Brew’88
Baez is ready I think (maybe?). Make him #6 in rotation see how it goes
I Believe We Can Win
I think it was mlbtr that said padres are projected to be about 243.
Idk if ownership wants to break tax barriers
Roster resource has them at 231 I think
Anyways 2025 the cbt is 241. So padres being 10 mill under doesn’t leave much room.
They got cease at a good cost but can sell high and clear 14 mill to address other areas of need.
Only way is trade cease is if you got pitching back.
Definitely agree with bringing back Perez and taking a shot at kikuchi- I’d offer 7-10 mill a year for 2-3.
Replacing Profar, finding a DH/1B, bringing back Higgy idk if you can do it that in 10 mill and leave room for in season additions. Maybe they cut fat elsewhere but where is the question.
Simm
My guess is Kikuchi will sign a deal worth 14m aav or more.
I don’t think they will bring in a dh only player. When you do that it doesn’t allow you to use the dh to give guys days off without not playing you dh bat. While they will need to bring in someone my guess is it’s someone who can actually play the field. They already have a risky guy playing the field in Arraez.
If I’m the padres I leave pitching as is and add another quality pitcher to the mix if not two (one being a Perez type that shouldn’t cost much). Doing so will raise them a decent amount obive the tax line bite they can easily fall back below the following year with Cease, King, Arraez being free agents and hosmers money falling off. Plus in 2026 they will have Musgrove back.
They will need to add a catcher perhaps that’s higgy.
They will also need to find a new left fielder. They can look for a low cost player here.
Keep in mind this is preller and he will likely find a way to make a trade or 10.
Bottom line if they add some payroll this year they can do so while freeing up payroll in 2026.
padrepapi
Has anyone looked at how all the hitting prospects performed after being traded last year?
Jacob Marsee, Samuel Zavala, Nathan Martorela, Graham Pauley, J.D. Gonzalez all stunk. Dillon Head got hurt after 3 games. I think only Homer Bush Jr. did well and he just matched his pre-trade performance.
Preller will definitely be making some trades.
Brew’88
Higgy will forego salary for more Delong guitars, he’ll play for free
A trade will happen to address SP need
Blackpink in the area
I think the Padres should trade Salas if they can get a good offer. The team is in win now mode. I think the Padres crushed it in last years draft they got some really exciting young guys in the system and they will probably draft well again next year. Might as well keep trading them away for now.
Gwynning
Salas and Leo aren’t being shopped and won’t be moved for less than an almost immeasurable haul.
padrepapi
I’d keep Salas. He’s off to a good start at the AFL, good bet to have a bounceback year in ’25 and having him as their every day catcher making near league minimum in 2026-2028 will be a welcome addition to the vet heavy roster.
Blackpink in the area
Counting on Salas as yout everyday catcher in 2026 seems ridiculous.
Padres are in win now mode.
Salas for Garret Crochet. That’s probably about right. Padres would be fools not to do that deal.
padrepapi
Are the Sox making that 1-1 trade today? Seems like they have a big asking price for their stud lefty and I’m not sure Salas alone after his 2024 season would accomplish that. I think Preller would consider that.
I wouldn’t put it past the team being content having Salas be their every day catcher in 2026 batting 9th. They are baseball’s most aggressive team when it comes to promoting prospects.
Blackpink in the area
I think the value is fair but catcher isn’t the White Sox biggest need.
If Salas is the starter in 2026 then so be it. But counting on it seems silly st this point. He didn’t have a good 2024.
Rays would probably want Salas. Jays and Twins need long term catching help.
The Padres window is already closing. They are going to have to make some trades to keep it going just like they have done recently. Last year Padres fans said Snelling and Lesko weren’t going to be dealt. Then they were.
padrepapi
You can’t tell me that a team with a 25 year old Tatis and a 21 year old Merrill window is closing. Two of the best young talents in the game that will Padres for a long long time.
Having the 2nd best attendance in baseball will go a long way to keep the sky is falling thoughts astray.
Blackpink in the area
Tatis is well paid. Merrill is cheap for a bit but some of these contracts are going to age poorly. The Soto trade last year worked out. They made numerous trades at the deadline. I would expect more trades in order to keep the window open as long as possible.
Longtimecoming
Black, I think all Padres fans will acknowledge that some contracts may age poorly. That said, it’s the nature of the game if you want to compete. I submit that most of not all playoff teams have such contracts – Cleveland maybe not, but all of the higher end payroll teams in mlb have them.
Philly is taking about not even have Realmuto as an every day catcher if the posts on here are accurate. Stanton? Mookie? Ohtani – paying him how much at age 50?; maybe even Freeman, Kershaw.
It’s just the way it is. The goal being to get better than you pay a few years up front to average it.
I’d never count Preller out of the trade market that is one thing for sure.
JoeBrady
He’s off to a good start at the AFL
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Salas has a 9/1 K/W in just 28 PAs. SSS and all, but that’s horrible.
My prediction is that he gets traded.
rizdakc99
I wouldn’t mind seeing them package Salas together with Bogaerts as a salary dump.
Longtimecoming
I think all Padres fans would mind.
Gwynning
Old friend Tommy Pham?
With friends like Tommy Pham, who needs enemies!
DarrenDreifortsContract
No team is ever winning a world series with Manny Machado as their best player.
Simm
Good thing manny isn’t their best player.
highflyballintorightfield
The problem isn’t so much that he’s the best player, it’s that he’s the dominant personality, so the team are loudmouth showboats when it goes well but meek chokers when the opposition fights back. That said, the Padres have made improvements in culture lately–getting rid of the laughable Grisham, acquiring Arraez who provides professionalism at the plate and who should absolutely be kept, and I like what I heard from Merrill in the face of losing–he’s a gamer. Machado is a very useful player but the team should not take its character from him, and hopefully offseason adjustments can help with that.
jbryant0693
Man, those are some bad contracts waiting to happen starting in about 3 years til 2033. Bogaerts may already be there.