Despite end-of-season promises of a "full-throttle" approach to the 2023-24 offseason, things were fairly quiet for the Red Sox during their first year under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's guidance as the club prioritized short-term commitments in free agency and on the trade market without making a major splash. That led to another disappointing season at Fenway where the club posted a lackluster 81-81 record that landed them third place in the AL East and four games out of an AL Wild Card spot. After a season that saw a number of youngsters take steps forward and with more prospect talent nearing the majors, Breslow's second winter at the helm figures to be more active than his first.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Rafael Devers, 3B: $284MM through 2033
- Trevor Story, SS: $77.5MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout on 2028 club option)
- Masataka Yoshida, DH: $55.8MM through 2027
- Brayan Bello, SP: $53.33MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on 2030 club option)
- Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS: $48.75MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on 2032 club option)
- Liam Hendriks, RP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option)
- Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $14MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)
Option Decisions
- Lucas Giolito, SP: Exercised $19MM player option
- Rob Refsnyder, OF: Team holds $2.1MM club option with $150K buyout
2025 financial commitments: $105.93MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $562.79MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
- Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
- Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM
Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
Disappointing as the 2024 season was for the Red Sox in terms of their record, one major silver lining for the club this winter is that the majority of their key contributors remain under long-term team control, meaning they'll be able to focus more on upgrading the roster than patching holes created by departing veterans. In particular, they're extremely well set-up in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all currently locked in at the major league level, not to mention the presence of Masataka Yoshida and (assuming his club option is picked up as expected) Rob Refsnyder.
With top prospect Roman Anthony knocking on the door of the majors and even getting some buzz as Baseball America's #1 prospect, the Red Sox remain flush in outfield talent even as they watch Tyler O'Neill and his 30-homer power depart for free agency. Of course, that's not to say O'Neill's bat won't be sorely missed in the Red Sox lineup. As a team, their 104 wRC+ was a hair above average, placing them in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Mariners for the tenth-best figure in the majors. While that's certainly a respectable number, even a prospect as talented as Anthony can't be expected to seamlessly replace the 131 wRC+ O'Neill provided to the club in a resurgent 2024 season.
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Focus on solutions. Burnes should be priority #1. The Sox sorely lack an ace, and someone like Burnes only comes along once in a great while. Sign him for what it costs because you can afford it, and then trade from your outfield depth, perhaps Abreu for Sonny Gray (and salary).
Sonny Gray in Fenway is a terrible idea as is for the most part throwing a lot of money at pitchers over the age of 30. The sox would be better served using that outfield depth to acquire a younger pitcher and perhaps saving money to throw at Sasaki whenever he becomes available.
if sasaki comes, there is undoubtedly going to be TJ within the first or second season. He throws very hard and he’s not much of an innings eater. His max is 129.1IP. Would like to watch him but I foresee agony waiting for him to pitch
I’m not ready to say he’s an injury waiting to happen and with seeing him pitch on a regular basis it’d be very hard to say he’s on his way to a Tommy John operation. regardless I’d take my chances on a 23 year old entering his prime as compared to a 30 year old commanding a similar salary.
I say hard No on Burnes. Look at his peripheral numbers…trending down every year. (Like K%) Also 30 years old and hasn’t had a major arm surgery yet. You almost have to assume he will miss 1.5 years at some point with arm trouble. I wouldn’t sign any free agent pitcher longer than 3 seasons.
Hopefully we don’t become this revolving door where we shuffle talent around without postseason success
The Red Sox are going to win the East next year.
How?
I don’t think you can reliably say that until the offseason happens.
A lot depends on Juan Soto- where is he going to sign? Him alone can tip the Yankees’ success in any direction.
I’d like them to go for Crochet and give him an extension. Then add some like Sonny Gray. Capitalize on some logjams and extra middle infielders so we can get Campbell and Anthony OD spots.
As much as a salary dump Gray will unfairly be, I don’t think you’d have the capital after a Crochet trade. Pitching is in such high demand. I’d love to see both these moves made, but I think it’s overrating our system.
Idk Crochet isn’t as pricey because there is no extension. I figure he’d be for a top 100 prospect with a couple Top 15 org prospects.
What type of deal do you think is necessary for Gray?
Sonny Gray has a NTC and I don’t think he would like playing for Boston. Just my opinion not a fact.
Mock trade
Cardinals get
Mayer
Red Sox get
Helsley
Romero
Luzardo
Bender
Marlins get
Ivan Herrera
Cardinals could add a small amount to the deal if needed.
Oh didn’t know about the NTC. Kinda heavy deal. How much money would the Sox add bring those 4 guys in?
Less than 20 million for those 4 guys. Probably cost 50 or so on the open market. Hey maybe the Red Sox have 50 million to spend this offseason i really dont know.
it’s highly unlikely any of those teams would make that trade. from the sox perspective I don’t they’d want Helsley because he’s in a walk year. Also if the sox do move Mayer (which they shouldn’t) it would be a for number a legit 1/2 not a player like Luzardo with his injury concerns. I’m sure from the Marlins perspective they’d expect more than Ivan Herrera in return for Luzardo.
The Red Sox need a top of the rotation lefty starter. They need to trade a lefty hitter or 3 and they also need back of the pen help. If they trade Mayer they can solve some of those issues for sure.
I don’t know why people are so quick to push Mayer out the door (outside of KD17 because of his weird anti Mayer bias.) The red sox have much better depth to trade from in their outfield which would make more sense to move someone from there.
I am a Cardinals fan. The Cardinals need a long term 3b. I don’t think Mayer is the first guy the Red Sox would want to trade but he’s the guy the Cardinals would want imo.
I’m not sure the Cardinals have anything the sox want unless the cards plan to move Hence
I agree that better OF trade depth. Mayer is currently becoming an injury concern to avid bosox wizards. To the point, its swallowable to part with him if they get some one they like. The team does have decent replacements for SS, and the lower minors has some decent middle infield guys too.
Decent middle infielders yes but Mayer is a top ten prospect for a reason. I’m not as overly concerned as the wizards (?) regarding his injury history and while there is some decent middle infield depth there isn’t a SS with as high a ceiling last Mayer in the system. The sox are better off moving from their OF then Mayer
They should trade Mookie for Verdugo.
No insight here whatsoever. Red Sox five (5) superstars knocking at the door and need to clear roster spots for them. So that means one or two of the current roster spots need to be cleared. No room for Tyler McRenfroe and his strikeout show. Pitchers are needed.
They should sign a guy named Mookie Verdugo.
Verdugo’s free agency will be intriguing. For a relatively young player, he’s burned many bridges with his perceived attitude and under-performance. He’s got a lot to prove.