The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $18MM through 2025
- Félix Bautista, RHP: $1MM through 2025 (arbitration-eligible in 2026 and ‘27)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025
Total 2025 commitments: $20.2MM
Total future commitments: $20.2MM
Option Decisions
- Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
- Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
- Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
- Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
- Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
- Burch Smith (5.086): $1.6MM
- Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
- Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
- Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option)
- Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
- Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
- Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
- Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
- Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
- Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
- Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
- Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera
Free Agents
The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.) In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team.
If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.
It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”
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Thornton Mellon
Agreed on the non-tender candidates.
Of the free agents, of course go after Burnes (though I think the chances of them keeping him are low, someone’s going to give him 7 years and big bucks and it won’t be the Orioles).
Pick up options on Coloumbe and Perez (and the latter just because he is cheap, not necessarily because he’s that good). Dominguez is way too much with Bautista coming back. O’Hearn maybe a sign-and-trade.
They need to improve on the low OBP/high K aspect of the lineup, and trading Mountcastle/O’Hearn /letting Santander go will help as well as reserve funds for McCann I could be OK with for one more year pending a decision on what to do with Rutschman/Basallo further down the road.
Rotation spending is needed. As I said on another post: Burnes/someone on that level plus a top half of the rotation guy, or two Eflin caliber or above.
Also, if seriously contending, roster spots should not be occupied by guys like Mateo, Slater, McKenna, Kemp.
Samuel
I can think of at least 8-10 playoff contending teams that would be in much better shape if they had Meteo to play SS.
Squeeze32
please enlighten us with those 8-10 teams.
Samuel
“please enlighten us with those 8-10 teamd”
“Squeeze32;
Sure.
Start with the Baltimore Orioles.
Thornton Mellon
Who could use a guy with a .267 OBP, who still K’s a lot, defensive #’s just barely above average?
Yankees – Volpe – hits better, more power, slightly better defensive #’s.
CLE – Rocchio – gets on base better despite lower avg, better defensive #’s
KC – Witt – uh, no
DET – Baez/Sweeney – Mateo would be slightly less of a hole but I think they could do a lot better. Let’s make that #1
HOU – Pena – far better hitter, slightly better fielder
PHI – Turner – uh, no
ATL – Arcia – similar OBP, can’t run, much more power. Probably a wash but I’ll make that #2.
NYM – LIndor – uh, no
MIL – Adames – uh, no
LAD – Rojas – hits better, bit better fielder
SD – Kim – league average hitter who can also run (the other thing Mateo can supposedly do). Mateo is a bit better fielder but not by a whole lot. Can’t give it here
ARI – Perdomo – already hitting a bit better and fields the same, and has upside at 24
SEA – Crawford – similar hitter (higher OBP ), better fielder. A wash at best
I took it down almost to the .500 teams and I count 2 teams where Mateo stands at least a decent chance to be a marginal upgrade over their current SS. 2 where at best he’s a wash.
Samuel
Thornton Mellon;
With both his defense and his speed Mateo turns games around. Try watching some.
BYW – How did your rotisserie league team do this year?
Big Hurt
Thornton – you’re trying to hard for the wrong crowd although I agree completely – Mateo is an 80 OPS+ career guy who’s defense has trailed off. Unless you want to weep softly in the corner of your room, don’t look at his baseball savant page where he is below average in every single category other than running. He’s basically a glorified pinch runner at this point.
Samuel will simply reply with “I WATCH ALL THE GAMES AND YOU DON’T. I’ve been watching since 1938 so your opinion (and supporting data) doesn’t matter!” So yeah – not worth the effort and good post.
jbigz12
You have to get on base to impact the game. Though I want Mateo back. He has value as a D replacement and pinch runner. He’s a better SS than Gunnar late in a game.
Big Hurt
Hey Jbigz – Why do you say that he’s better late in the game than Gunnar? Fewer errors? Wouldn’t you consider Gunnar a better overall defensive shortstop right now? In the games I’ve seen, Henderson has looked really strong (other than the propensity for errors at this young age).
jbigz12
Gunnar could get there but he made some really bad gaffes this season. He’ll need to put in some offseason work.
-1 OAA is what they pegged Gunnar at. D metrics aren’t perfect but I feel his was a little below average as a SS. I believe Mateo is still an above average defensive SS. He can’t hit and never will but having 80 grade speed on the bench is very nice to have in the playoffs. Add in his versatility and plus glove at SS and I think he’s worth a bench spot.
skinsfandfw
Thornton I think Seranthony comes back. Two reasons, one of which you stated.
Felix is just coming back off TJ and some additional procedures. What if he’s not right, slow in his build up or god forbid gets injured again? Dominguez is a great insurance policy.
Secondly, we’ve seen firsthand the importance of having multiple high leverage arms in your pen. All of the top teams have this. The Orioles skirted by with a very shaky pen in ‘24.
In either case, not my money of course, but 8MM is not that much in today’s market. Dominguez was really good post trade minus a couple solo home runs allowed.
Samuel
skinsfandfw;
Explain to the guy that the O’s had multiple injuries in their bullpen (and with starters) in 2024. Caused them major problems they had to work around.
It’s October 16. The schedules for the 2025 season haven’t even been released yet. But this guy wants to freeze the bullpen…..the most volatile component of a ML team…..not to mention that Cliché #1 in building a baseball team is: “You can never have enough pitching”.
Big Hurt
Sammy still thinks the Os hit the lottery with the Trevor Rogers trade, so his opinion doesn’t really add much value here.
I still think they need additional pitching before hitting (and yes Samuel, hitting fell off in the 2nd half but I have much more confidence that Rutschman and Holliday have good 2025 seasons than Rogers or Suarez, sorry).
Bottom line is the Os need to sign a big starter or 2 as mentioned in the article, or trade for someone like Crochet and deal with the fact that Mayo and/or Kjerstad may play for someone else. The Os have been incredible at developing hitters, not so much pitchers recently, so might as well trade from that strength.
jbigz12
I’d say we’ve been fine at developing pitchers. The problem is that we don’t draft and retain pitchers to develop.
Big Hurt
Jbigz – thanks for the reasonable replies. I know I come off a bit rough with Os fans because most of them on this site don’t really want to interact in an adult manner. Your takes are welcomed!
jbigz12
I think either Soto or Dominguez is let go. I’m not sure which one goes.
Blackpink in the area
Trade Mayo for Crochet. Sign another high end starter. That makes them legit contenders imo no matter what else they do.
skinsfandfw
The thought of this makes me want to puke since I’m a huge Coby believer, but depending on how the offseason shakes out and SP we sign vs not, this might be a move that has to be made.
Blackpink in the area
I think Mayo is gonna figure it out but he doesn’t exactly have a place to play in Baltimore. His greatest value is as a 3b and the Orioles don’t need him for that so I think he’s worth more to another team.
letitbelowenstein
Mayo hasn’t proven anything at the major league level. The Orioles have had way too many “future superstars” who turned out to be huge disappointments.
TerryTurnbuckle
Kyle Hendricks is the move to fill out that rotation. If he’d take a pay cut they could also try him out as closer I know they tried to get him at the deadline but the Cubs were still in it so obviously there is interest
skinsfandfw
Umm, Orioles don’t really need a closer with Felix Bautista coming back plus they have the option year on Seranthony if they want it.
Either way, pass on Hendricks anyway.
NYCityRiddler
I can save you the $30 bucks. The outlook is the same as it was the last two years, high hopes & an early departure in October IF they even get there. They’re not only prospect huggin maroons they hid the checkbook from Elias again, meanwhile back in the Bronx…Ahahahaha!
cooperhill
Pass on “mr walks” Perez.
hoof hearted
How does Adley project at 5.8 and Cal R at 5.5?
Atloriolesfan
Insanity. Rutsch should be about 60% of Raleigh. And I’m an Os fan.
Roidville Slugger
Cal Ripken???