The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $18MM through 2025
- Félix Bautista, RHP: $1MM through 2025 (arbitration-eligible in 2026 and ‘27)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025
Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM
Option Decisions
- Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
- Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
- Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
- Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
- Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
- Burch Smith (5.086): $1.6MM
- Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
- Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
- Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option)
- Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
- Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
- Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
- Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
- Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
- Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
- Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
- Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera
Free Agents
The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.) In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team.
If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.
It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”
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Agreed on the non-tender candidates.
Of the free agents, of course go after Burnes (though I think the chances of them keeping him are low, someone’s going to give him 7 years and big bucks and it won’t be the Orioles).
Pick up options on Coloumbe and Perez (and the latter just because he is cheap, not necessarily because he’s that good). Dominguez is way too much with Bautista coming back. O’Hearn maybe a sign-and-trade.
They need to improve on the low OBP/high K aspect of the lineup, and trading Mountcastle/O’Hearn /letting Santander go will help as well as reserve funds for McCann I could be OK with for one more year pending a decision on what to do with Rutschman/Basallo further down the road.
Rotation spending is needed. As I said on another post: Burnes/someone on that level plus a top half of the rotation guy, or two Eflin caliber or above.
Also, if seriously contending, roster spots should not be occupied by guys like Mateo, Slater, McKenna, Kemp.
I can think of at least 8-10 playoff contending teams that would be in much better shape if they had Meteo to play SS.
please enlighten us with those 8-10 teams.
“please enlighten us with those 8-10 teamd”
“Squeeze32;
Sure.
Start with the Baltimore Orioles.
Who could use a guy with a .267 OBP, who still K’s a lot, defensive #’s just barely above average?
Yankees – Volpe – hits better, more power, slightly better defensive #’s.
CLE – Rocchio – gets on base better despite lower avg, better defensive #’s
KC – Witt – uh, no
DET – Baez/Sweeney – Mateo would be slightly less of a hole but I think they could do a lot better. Let’s make that #1
HOU – Pena – far better hitter, slightly better fielder
PHI – Turner – uh, no
ATL – Arcia – similar OBP, can’t run, much more power. Probably a wash but I’ll make that #2.
NYM – LIndor – uh, no
MIL – Adames – uh, no
LAD – Rojas – hits better, bit better fielder
SD – Kim – league average hitter who can also run (the other thing Mateo can supposedly do). Mateo is a bit better fielder but not by a whole lot. Can’t give it here
ARI – Perdomo – already hitting a bit better and fields the same, and has upside at 24
SEA – Crawford – similar hitter (higher OBP ), better fielder. A wash at best
I took it down almost to the .500 teams and I count 2 teams where Mateo stands at least a decent chance to be a marginal upgrade over their current SS. 2 where at best he’s a wash.
Thornton Mellon;
With both his defense and his speed Mateo turns games around. Try watching some.
BYW – How did your rotisserie league team do this year?
Thornton – you’re trying to hard for the wrong crowd although I agree completely – Mateo is an 80 OPS+ career guy who’s defense has trailed off. Unless you want to weep softly in the corner of your room, don’t look at his baseball savant page where he is below average in every single category other than running. He’s basically a glorified pinch runner at this point.
Samuel will simply reply with “I WATCH ALL THE GAMES AND YOU DON’T. I’ve been watching since 1938 so your opinion (and supporting data) doesn’t matter!” So yeah – not worth the effort and good post.
You have to get on base to impact the game. Though I want Mateo back. He has value as a D replacement and pinch runner. He’s a better SS than Gunnar late in a game.
Hey Jbigz – Why do you say that he’s better late in the game than Gunnar? Fewer errors? Wouldn’t you consider Gunnar a better overall defensive shortstop right now? In the games I’ve seen, Henderson has looked really strong (other than the propensity for errors at this young age).
Gunnar could get there but he made some really bad gaffes this season. He’ll need to put in some offseason work.
-1 OAA is what they pegged Gunnar at. D metrics aren’t perfect but I feel his was a little below average as a SS. I believe Mateo is still an above average defensive SS. He can’t hit and never will but having 80 grade speed on the bench is very nice to have in the playoffs. Add in his versatility and plus glove at SS and I think he’s worth a bench spot.
Agree Mateo is a good bench player if you can afford him. As for defensive metrics, agree completely that they can be tricky, illustrated as well by the fact that while Henderson is negative on Outs above average as you noted, his dWAR is +1.5 while Mateo was negative this year. But yeah, not perfect so that’s why I’m asking.
Mateo.
Played out of position at 2b in 2024 and played second fiddle at SS in 23 to get Henderson more reps. And IMO the only reason why he played as much as he did in 24 at 2b was because young guns like Holliday weren’t ready to. Last man standing at 2b.
Both he and Urias are invaluable and cheap. Give 100% even though playing time is based on accommodation of getting others up to speed … expect more the same in 25. Keep them.
Offensively, Jorge is a tease. Just when I’m fed with him, he shows up … and when it counts. IE had a nice post season when those that were suppose to didn’t show up.
Dude, I watch plenty. I also had to watch Cesar Izturis, who was signed for bigger money (for the era) and installed as primary SS. In fact, Izturis OBP was slightly less low – I can’t say higher – than Mateo’s and his fielding followed a similar arc’s as Mateo’s the last 3 years – excellent 2 seasons ago, very good last year, barely above average this year.
I had excellent speed and couldn’t get on base either so I ran track in high school. With his inability to hit and get on base, Mateo kills rallies.
ThorntonM; love the Cesar Izturis comparison. Like Mateo, brought in as a place holder to get to better times.
Andy MacPhail was GM back then. Cesar disappeared because Andy brought in JJ Hardy. Elias had the same plan. Only difference; Andy went outside the org to get his SS, Elias, in his mind, thinks he has it in Henderson.
What happened? Orioles were gosh darn awful when Cesar was SS. Orioles were winners with Mateo at SS in 22 and he got the majority reps in there 2023 101 season. He’s a winner. Plays to his ability honestly. Not intimated playing in big moments. Os FO knows this. Even better, looks like he has accepted the reality of utility role guy. Samuel is right. To appreciate him you’ve got watch him play more than relying on his stats.
Jeff – you know me and I’m not a smart aleck here, but I can only state what I don’t see with Mateo – I don’t see him getting on base much, I don’t see him hitting for much power, I don’t see him adding a whole lot of defensive value anymore (2022, yes). But you pointed out what I had in mind, when the Orioles were ready to contend, they went and got better personnel in JJ Hardy.. (In contending last year-until Henderson suddenly got the bobbles later in the summer, he was clearly the better defender too.)
In 2025, we would hope Holliday develops into an everyday guy. That would leave Urias as UIF/injury replacement and Mateo would only be useful as a pinch runner in the 8th or 9th (he’s guaranteed to get on base that way!). $3.2M is awfully expensive for that.
So I will redirect and say they would get much more production out of that roster spot from another reliever or find an outfielder/1B mix guy who can run who provides more offensive value – assuming Santander departs?
Maybe how long he sticks around in February and March will be the barometer of how highly they think of Holliday turning into another young star.
Were they to let Mateo walk, I don’t see him getting more than a UIF job. As I went through yesterday, he’s not an upgrade for anyone over the .500 mark as a starter.
@thornton
With Bradfield likely to be ready for D replacement/Pinch running duty by October I can actually see the argument to wave goodbye to Mateo.
I think what he provides is valuable though. He just shouldn’t be in the lineup as frequently as he was prior to injury.
Do you think they split Bradfield AA/AAA this year and if he hangs at AAA he’s up late in the year then? (I’m not as up on MILB).
What I’ve liked in following him as that he continues to be able to take walks as he advances.
I always can’t help think of Corey Patterson with fast outfielders, used to frustrate the F out of me. Fast as anything, 5 tools. Except you’d see only 2 tools at a time, 3 tops. First year in Baltimore he threw guys out, defended well. Then figured out why the Cubs dumped him. Take some walks for gosh sakes! It’s like he had “I hit 24 HR one year at Wrigley” stuck in his head like Willie Mays Hays in Major League 2.
Then they picked him up again in 2010 so they could pair him up with a 2nd Cubs failed castoff to have 2 fast guys who couldn’t get on base enough to bat leadoff. That’s the 2010 team right there, along with DT sitting all starters on Sundays.
I think he’s up at some point this year. If he really plays well it could be before the deadline. I figure if they let Mateo go that he’ll be on the 40 man by the end of August regardless. Brad field has 0 power. He’s more of a Juan Pierre type OF. He should be able to run balls down and steal a ton of bases. We’ll see if there’s enough hitting in his profile to make it because like I said, the only XBH he’s going to be getting are ones that he legs out
He’s also injured and who knows how he will be after he returns.
Thornton I think Seranthony comes back. Two reasons, one of which you stated.
Felix is just coming back off TJ and some additional procedures. What if he’s not right, slow in his build up or god forbid gets injured again? Dominguez is a great insurance policy.
Secondly, we’ve seen firsthand the importance of having multiple high leverage arms in your pen. All of the top teams have this. The Orioles skirted by with a very shaky pen in ‘24.
In either case, not my money of course, but 8MM is not that much in today’s market. Dominguez was really good post trade minus a couple solo home runs allowed.
skinsfandfw;
Explain to the guy that the O’s had multiple injuries in their bullpen (and with starters) in 2024. Caused them major problems they had to work around.
It’s October 16. The schedules for the 2025 season haven’t even been released yet. But this guy wants to freeze the bullpen…..the most volatile component of a ML team…..not to mention that Cliché #1 in building a baseball team is: “You can never have enough pitching”.
Sammy still thinks the Os hit the lottery with the Trevor Rogers trade, so his opinion doesn’t really add much value here.
I still think they need additional pitching before hitting (and yes Samuel, hitting fell off in the 2nd half but I have much more confidence that Rutschman and Holliday have good 2025 seasons than Rogers or Suarez, sorry).
Bottom line is the Os need to sign a big starter or 2 as mentioned in the article, or trade for someone like Crochet and deal with the fact that Mayo and/or Kjerstad may play for someone else. The Os have been incredible at developing hitters, not so much pitchers recently, so might as well trade from that strength.
I’d say we’ve been fine at developing pitchers. The problem is that we don’t draft and retain pitchers to develop.
Jbigz – thanks for the reasonable replies. I know I come off a bit rough with Os fans because most of them on this site don’t really want to interact in an adult manner. Your takes are welcomed!
I’d keep Rogers, but start him off in AAA if he has options.
Agreed – you can’t get rid of Rogers as he has shown some ability in the past. But he’s got to be on a short leash with how poorly he’s pitched the last 3 years.
Fact…..
The day the trade was made I wrote that they gave up too much for him, but that was the going rate.
I’ve been consistent for 2 years pointing out that the O’s under Elias / Sig seldom draft pitchers, rather they trade or sign undervalued pitchers that they can rework. They fact that you think Rodgers is a bust shows that you don’t comprehend what the O’s are doing. The FO and coaching staff have hardly written him off. I believe they fully expect him to be up with the parent team making a contribution at some point in 2025 unless he’s injured. Maybe as a starter, maybe in the bullpen.
The O’s do with pitchers what the Rays, Guardians and some other small market team’s do – they find undervalued pitchers and coach them up. (Tell me where those teams have ever batched up multiple quality prospects to get a name pitcher…..in fact, in those sorts of trades they do the opposite.) Giving up prospects they spent money and years to find and develop, then trading them for a hot pitcher that either has or wants a large multi-year contract is a no go. Too much risk, especially if the guy goes down with an injury.
Please don’t slam me biggie – I’ve forgotten more about baseball than you’ll ever know. MLB franchises are multi-billion dollar businesses. It’s not rotisserie league. Baseball Ops departments have short, medium and long-term plans like any large business. They may alter them some as real-world issues occur. But the good ones don’t abandon their processes. The O’s are set-up to be a sustainable contender for the next 8-10 years. They’re not going to endanger that.
TL:DR, other than your continued self-aggrandizing phrase of ‘forgetting about baseball’ or whatever.
Bro – your opinion is just like your ahole, you have one and so does every other person on this site. Get over yourself and open your mind – you might actually learn from someone like jbigz.
There was no reason to buy Rogers in July for a pennant race if you couldn’t rework him in 2024. I’m not writing him off by any means but he better be pretty damn good to pay up at the deadline for 2025 and beyond. Little easier and cheaper to get a project in the offseason
Samuel-
Its too bad that you have this need to constantly stick out your chest and pontificate so much because you do have some facts…though you don’t know any more baseball than me and I have a friend I consult when I’m not 100% who certainly could wipe the floor with you.
Cole Irvin – you thought he would play well here with the wall being moved back and the great Austin Hays running down everything. (My initial take was under the assumption this would be a supporting move and he could be maybe average and didn’t cost much – then I saw increased hype and nothing in his actual play that inspired hope, got into some arguments when I pointed out how poorly he pitched away from Oakland…and we all see the results).
Blake Snell – 2 years ago you argued against a proposition to deal JORDAN LYLES for Blake Snell because of an additional $5 million, because Lyles was consuming innings (this “taking up space” attraction must be why….) I’m pretty sure Snell would have been a net plus for 2023 and 2024 Orioles.
Jorge Mateo – You argued against the majority of the group sentiment wanting to trade Mateo, comparing him to Byron Buxton AND saying he was younger. Because he “adds value that people don’t see”. What? I don’t see him get on base much. I don’t see him hit for much power. I don’t see him post amazing defensive results.. I always compared him to Cesar Izturis, who the Orioles didn’t hesitate to push over the side for JJ Hardy when they became more competitive.
Unlike you I will admit when I’m wrong – I’ve been more wrong than right about Bradish, for example (durability being the only remaining issue).given comments I came across from 2 years ago. BStrowman, I owe you an apology for him.
As for “set up to be a sustainable contender for the next 8-10 years” I have repeatedly said I am waiting to see what the new ownership group does before passing too much judgement. Current status.
1. Zero of young core signed to long term extensions, so no one’s under team control past 3-5 years, not 8-10.
2. No projected MLB caliber top half of the rotation starting pitching in AA or AAA at the moment – so they have not developed or salvaged. (not counting Rogers – my take is 2.8M not much to find out if he can turn into something – its less than Kremer’s projection).
3. That means they need to spend serious money or make trades to get top half starting pitching. They did that with Burnes – for 1 year. Eflin – for 1+ years.. This is the biggest one, given the fact that when the injuries hit the rotation, the Orioles were exposed as a .500 team without Rodriguez, Means, and Bradish – and the pitching went from #2 in the AL at the time to below avg.
The window has been open for 2 years and they have 192 regular season wins and 0 playoff wins to show for it. They have a full wallet to acquire missing pieces and a wealth of young players they can lock up. But sitting on the fence won’t get it done. I will take a 4 year window versus an 8 year one if a WS title is within it. I don’t want 8 years of 0 playoff wins.
Thornton-
I agree with just about all of this.
I really wish Samuel would realize that 90% of his comments on this site are replies to others where he spends 3 paragraphs saying that the OP has it all wrong and Samuel’s opinion is always correct. It is always a “This isn’t rotisserie league” or “I’m smarter than you” or “I know more than you.” Not to mention that he thinks that he’s the only remaining baseball fan who actually watches baseball games.
It’s sad because he does actually have some fact based opinions but because he refuses to ever admit that an opinion other than his own can even be valid, let alone true, he has turned off most of the commenter base here.
I wish he would choose to post his opinions as posts on their own instead of just attacking others in replies.
I think either Soto or Dominguez is let go. I’m not sure which one goes.
8M seems kind of steep for a very average reliever last year (decent 2023, very good 2022) especially for a team that – until the new ownership group proves otherwise – doesn’t pay premium money and is adept at finding low cost, effective relievers other teams miss.
For Rogers 2.8M isn’t too much to find out if he’s an effective starter in 2025.
skins – the $8M is killing me, maybe it would be helpful if I tie that amount to who else gets that or should get that around the league to help me. I seem to be in the minority on this one ATM.
Soto and Dominguez should both be kept before Perez, and Mateo is a great bench piece/backup, so he should be kept as well.
Trade Mayo for Crochet. Sign another high end starter. That makes them legit contenders imo no matter what else they do.
The thought of this makes me want to puke since I’m a huge Coby believer, but depending on how the offseason shakes out and SP we sign vs not, this might be a move that has to be made.
I think Mayo is gonna figure it out but he doesn’t exactly have a place to play in Baltimore. His greatest value is as a 3b and the Orioles don’t need him for that so I think he’s worth more to another team.
Mayo hasn’t proven anything at the major league level. The Orioles have had way too many “future superstars” who turned out to be huge disappointments.
There is still absolutely no good reason for the Orioles to do this trade, no matter how many times you post it.
Mayo isn’t blocked either, as has been explained to you several times already. He could get everyday ABs next year without getting rid of anyone under 2025 control.
Mayo is a 3b. 3b is blocked in Baltimore. Using Mayo at a lesser defensive position takes away some of his value. And he doesn’t have a path to everyday at bats at 1b either. That’s the truth.
You keep telling me how great the Orioles prospects are. Windows open and then they close. You don’t seem to understand this.
Mayo sucks at 3B right now and is probably ticketed for 1B or RF ultimately, and he could get everyday ABs at 1B next year by platooning O’Hearn (FA after 2025, if even kept) and Mountcastle (FA after 2026, if even kept), which is their best usage anyway.
He simply is not blocked, no matter how many times you say he’s blocked.
He’s blocked by OHearn and Mountcastle. You just said so yourself. And Basallo needs a place to play.
Huh? O’Hearn and Mountcastle platoon at either 1B or DH and Mayo plays everyday at the other position. How exactly is that “blocked?”
And finding playing time for Basallo is a problem for 2026 or 2027, and since O’Hearn is gone after 2025 and Mountcastle is gone after 2026 (if they are not traded before that), that isn’t even actually a problem.
The Orioles are not going to platoon OHearn and Mountcastle. There is no reason to do that, especially when Mayo might not actually be ready to perform.
There are reasons why contending teams trade young talent. I don’t think you understand this.
The fact that O’Hearn is basically helpless against lefties is a pretty good reason to platoon him (.555 career OPS vs. lefties), and it’s probably the reason he has been already platooned by the Orioles for basically his entire tenure here in Baltimore.
There is simply zero reason to trade Mayo. He isn’t blocked at all and he’s likely our 1B of the future after O’Hearn and Mountcastle depart in the next 2 years, and we have a wide open payroll picture and money to spend, and very few areas in need of major upgrades. Pretty much just a good SP (or two) and a solid RHH OF.
If Mayo is the 1b of the future then where is Basallo playing?
If the team was going to buy a Frontline starter why didnt they do that last year instead of trading for a year of Burnes?
The Orioles probably need 2 more starters.
Playing Mayo against lefties only at DH and not 3b is a total waste of his talent. He’s worth more to another team than he is to the Orioles. This is why trades happen.
Basallo will split time between C, 1B, and DH until Adley leaves after 2027, then most likely become the everyday C. If Adley stays, then he will continue getting starts at a mix of those positions.
We didn’t buy any big time free agents last year because John Angelos was still the acting owner and he viewed the team as his personal piggy bank. He’s gone now (thank God) and both Rubenstein and Elias have indicated that payroll is going to go up.
And again, Mayo sucks at 3B and has not really been getting better. He’s probably going to see most of his future playing time at 1B and DH, with maybe some COF occasionally.
Kyle Hendricks is the move to fill out that rotation. If he’d take a pay cut they could also try him out as closer I know they tried to get him at the deadline but the Cubs were still in it so obviously there is interest
Umm, Orioles don’t really need a closer with Felix Bautista coming back plus they have the option year on Seranthony if they want it.
Either way, pass on Hendricks anyway.
No team in baseball is going to try the soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks out as a closer, much less a contender with multiple in-house power arms (Bautista, Dominguez, Soto, etc.) like the Orioles.
I can save you the $30 bucks. The outlook is the same as it was the last two years, high hopes & an early departure in October IF they even get there. They’re not only prospect huggin maroons they hid the checkbook from Elias again, meanwhile back in the Bronx…Ahahahaha!
Pass on “mr walks” Perez.
How does Adley project at 5.8 and Cal R at 5.5?
Insanity. Rutsch should be about 60% of Raleigh. And I’m an Os fan.
Cal Ripken???
Keep Dominguez and turn the TV off. Dump Eloy.
Find it hard to believe someone doesn’t pay Kirby Yates to be a closer. I’d be surprised to see the O’s sign an expensive reliever. The issue with the bullpen is going to be flexibility next season. The relievers aren’t optionable. We’ve been able to send some guys up and down in the past but that’s going to be hard to do with this current group.
Uh, what is this?
“All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they’re planning to improve the roster over the winter.
It’s a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he’ll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past.”
First of all, “all that to say” is not proper English. You need “is.” Basic stuff. And “then” unnecessarily obfuscates the sentence. Just start it with “therefore” or “thus” and avoid splitting up subjects. Clunky writing.