The Cubs announced that infielder Nico Hoerner underwent right flexor tendon surgery on October 11, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay the news on X. The club hasn’t yet provided an estimated timeline for his recovery.
The news comes out of nowhere, as there was no prior indication there was anything wrong with Hoerner’s throwing arm. He didn’t go on the injured list at any point in 2024, playing in 151 games. He did miss a bit of time with hamstring tightness in May and he also suffered a hand fracture from a hit-by-pitch in June, but was back in the lineup after a few days off.
His arm strength has tailed off in recent years, however, which was perhaps a warning sign. In the 2020-22 seasons, he averaged between 81 and 83 miles per hour on his throws from second base. That dropped to 78.1 mph last year and 75.1 mph in 2024.
Hoerner is coming off his third straight season of fairly consistent production, with above-average contributions on offense, defense and on the basepaths. At the plate, he doesn’t provide a lot of power but is very tough to strike out and gets on-base enough to get above par overall. In each of the past three seasons, his home run total has finished between seven and ten while his wRC+ has been between 103 and 108.
In 2022, he stole 20 bases in 22 tries. That seems to have prompted a more aggressive approach, which led to a few more steals but also a few more outs. In 2023, he made 50 steal attempts, succeeding 43 times. In 2024, it was 31 steals in 37 tries.
Defensively, he has received strong grades at his primary position of second base, as well as filling in at shortstop. If it weren’t for the presence of Dansby Swanson on the roster, Hoerner likely could have provided strong glovework at short on a regular basis. FanGraphs has considered Hoerner to be worth between 3.9 and 4.6 wins above replacement in each of those three campaigns, reflecting his steady performance.
Prior to this news, there was a speculative case for the Cubs to make Hoerner available in trades. He and the Cubs signed an extension in 2023, a three-year pact that guaranteed him $35MM over the 2024-26 seasons. There are still two years remaining on that deal, with Hoerner to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026.
This winter’s shortstop free agent class is pretty thin. Willy Adames is the top guy and he was to be followed by Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim recently underwent shoulder surgery and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Opening Day 2025. For clubs that miss out on Adames, their best bets will be guys who are likely viewed as a tier below an everyday option, with names like Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Kyle Farmer in this group.
There likely would have been some clubs interested in acquiring Hoerner and moving him back to shortstop. The Cubs could have entertained the idea since they have a strong farm system. The current top 100 list at MLB Pipeline features eight Cubs, including six that have reached the Triple-A level. Two of those are infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, both of whom are capable of playing second base.
There are only so many ways that the Cubs can open space for those prospects, as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Swanson all have full no-trade protection. Hoerner doesn’t have such a clause. Making him available in trades could have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their pitching staff in a trade, with Shaw and/or Triantos filling the void.
Perhaps that plan will now be less viable with the news of this surgery, as clubs will naturally have some hesitation about acquiring Hoerner until his prognosis is more clear. If Hoerner ends up staying with the Cubs and missing some of the 2025 season, perhaps guys like Shaw or Triantos will have a path to Opening Day roles. Third baseman Isaac Paredes also has second base experience and could slide over, opening up the hot corner.
RunDMC
Man, anyone ATL is interested in for SS upgrade is undergoing the knife. First, Kim. Now, Nico.
Oh no, Willy! Watch out for the knife, Willy!
youtube.com/watch?v=qKIZ5olUexs
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I think that puts any trade talk for Hoerner or Swanson on hold. Swanson’s contract would be hard to move anyway.
rememberthecoop
There was never any talk about moving Dansby. He had a rough year offensively, but he is as good as any SS with the glove. And as you pointed out, they couldn’t move that contract anyway.
As for Shaw, I don’t want him playing 3B because his arm is too fringy.
rondon
Swanson actually had a much better second half at the plate and was dealing with a knee injury in the first half that Counsell didn’t really talk about til after the season… btw.. It’s funny how they kind of downplay Hoerner on here all the time. I would say that a career WAR of 3.9-4.6 is better than “fairly consistent”.
cplwhite
There is the excuse of why he had zero power i mean beside the fact that he sucked all year until the end..
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Cpl
Hoerner had a good season
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
He was also snubbed as a gold glove finalist.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Hoerner has never been a power hitter even in the minors.
harrycarey
Well now there is a solution to why he is not in the gold glove running.
Also great to see the media jump on the 10 day old news.
Lindor's Bodyguard
You needed to know this sooner?
I would be curious to know how this affects your life. I will wait all day. Please inform us!
JoeBrady
Lindor’s Bodyguard
I would be curious to know how this affects your life.
=========================
I think one might infer, from his user name, that he is a Cubs fan.
Kind of straightforward.
mike127
Joe—-Harry Carey was an actor. Really don’t see any straight forward connection to that user name being linked to a Cub fan at all.
Blackpink in the area
Lindors mad because his team got knocked out last night. Or maybe it’s just who he is who knows.
Blackpink in the area
Mike
Figure it out……
mike127
Blackpink–I did figure it out. Harry Carey was an actor. Harry Caray was the Cubs announcer. Two separate persons.
The highest form of respect is to remember and call someone by name. If they are spelled differently, they are two different people.
I will respect harrycarey and assume his username is connected to something a little less straight forward than being a Cub fan.
Blackpink in the area
So given that this is a baseball site do you think it’s more likely that he’s a fan of the actor or he simply spelled the name wrong?
Moron
mike127
Dude (so much less harsh than “Moron”)—it was a minor jab at my pal Joe–who said it was straight forward. Tongue in cheek–that’s all. Joe wanted to have fun with Harry—I wanted to have fun with Joe. He’s one of the better posters here.
I don’t think he spelled the name wrong at all. For all I know, his name may actually be Harry Carey.
But, per usual, always good to see you visit a Cubs story. Think about all the rent you could be collecting from them for living in your head.
Unclemike1525
mike- LMAO. Well known troll acting the fool. Anyway this news did come out of nowhere as it wasn’t reported at anytime this season. I wonder if Pinkie knows that players usually get routine exit physicals sometimes also. Maybe they were keeping track of MRI’s and noticed a problem getting worse and decided to take care of it now which makes complete sense which Pinkie never really does. Better now than going to ST and having get worse. Be more interested to see if it was torn or partially torn which might affect recovery time. Don’t really see how this would affect his trade value in any way.
Unclemike1525
Joe just mute that TTurnbuckle dude and save time. I did. That’s time you’ll never get back.
RunDMC
@harrycarey — Do you think they’re sitting on this for 10 days? They’re not privvied to someone’s medical records unless they offer it up to them. Not a big deal. I’d also imagine most teams are being courteous of the playoffs and not releasing any non-pertinent information. Notice it was released the morning after the World Series was set.
TerryTurnbuckle
Who?
Bucket Number Six
Stfu
TerryTurnbuckle
No one has heard of this dude. Might as well play for the Rockies. We only keep up with MVPs and all stars here. Take your AAA player and go away
JoeBrady
TerryTurnbuckle
No one has heard of this dude.
==========================
All real baseball fans have heard of him.
Unclemike1525
Joe just mute this fool and move on. I did.
BarNone
This news is really not helpful. Which extensor tendon? If it is his pinky NBD. If it is in his thumb, index, or middle finger, bigger deal because that is what you primarily use to grip a ball. On top of that, a flexor tendon surgery is typically that big of a surgery. In season, yeah because you can’t really turn to game action, but in the offseason, you can take the 6-8 weeks to rest that finger and let it heal and then work your way back into full activities. I went back and looked at pics from last season, nothing really showing any glaring issue. A couple pics showed his pinky out, which may just be the way he throws the ball, or it could be the injured finger.
mike127
Bar—I really can’t imagine this being a huge issue. I think we can assume that this injury did NOT occur between October 1 and October 10 leading to a surgery on the 11th.
This is obviously played with/through a portion of the season, if not a majority of it.
Seems to me that both Nico and the Cubs were content with this being addressed after the season and perhaps after some rest or quick vacation.
Probably has 14-15 weeks before spring training. No cause to read too much into this unless he isn’t able to report (whether with the Cubs or somewhere else).
BarNone
I agree. Sorry if my point didn’t come across clear enough. I was trying to say it isn’t really a big deal and should have a quick recovery, but if it were the pinky it would be even less of a deal. Anticipate 10-12 weeks to be back to regular work.
mike127
and to clear up my point as well—if it were serious enough that he couldn’t have gripped a ball, it would have been known to the public fan base by now.
Wasn’t exactly implying that it not a “huge” issue—more along the lines if he couldn’t grip the ball or was making throws to the tarp, the bells would have sounded in June or July.
Unclemike1525
It says on the Cubs site that it was his forearm.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Mike
Notwithstanding the hairy care nonsense, on this your take may be spot on. Nico should be playing by May 1 if not sooner.
Unclemike1525
He’s got 4 months before ST starts. I think he’ll be fine by Opening Day. I’d let him skip Japan for sure. If he was a P, It might be different.
Acoss1331
Considering how he’s getting the surgery now, hopefully he’s good to go for the start of spring training.
Pads Fans
If Hoerner has produced 3.9-4.6 WAR each of the last 3 seasons and will only make $11.5-12.0 million the next 2 seasons, why would the Cubs WANT to trade him?
Pads Fans
3.7 to 5.1 WAR via the link this website supplied for Hoerner. That is 3rd best among 2B over the past 3 seasons. Why would the Cubs WANT to trade that kind of performance?
MLB Top 100 Commenter
They don’t but pundits reason Swanson and Paredes are hard to move and Shaw will be ready mid-season. Silly to speculate before Belli opts in or out.
TerryTurnbuckle
Wrigley field is a dump and filled with drunks
BarNone
Your mom is Wrigley Field?
MLB Top 100 Commenter
T stands for troll