Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway. Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures. However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is finished.
The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.
Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller. Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.
To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top $700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around $438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.
There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of $700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual value is the only AAV north of $44MM.
No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.
Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason, perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty much the entirety of the player universe.”
Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in international bonus pool space to sign him.
That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.
NY Post? Maybe there are 40-159 teams if it’s Heyman. Potential intergalactic league offers, Space Jam style.
Long Island Ducks are in pursuit.
My son’s T-ball team also checked in with the Soto camp.
Nonsense! I heard he’s on a flight to Toronto as we speak.
To sign with the Maple Leafs.
Word has it that Lrrrrr of Omicron Persei 8 reached out to offer 500 over 10 and a veiled threat that he will eat soto if he says no.
@Hatless Heyman was reporting Dogdoo8 was interested, but the universe ends right after Dogdoo7
Soto is a joy to watch with the stick. One of the top 2-3 hitters in MLB. There is no way anyone is paying him 14 years at 50mil per with no deferrals. He is not worth anywhere near that. I have have no idea, maybe 12/480-500mil gets it done?
I don’t think I’d even be agreeable to an 8 year contract for Soto. And I agree that he’s one of the best hitters in baseball.
The length of these contracts has gotten ridiculous. The owners need to reevaluate at what point does the greed involved, begin to hurt the fan’s desire to support it.
To me, the inability of so many teams to be true contenders will lead to a fatal blow to many franchises. It’s already happening with cities wanting no part in letting tax money be used to build new parks. See: Chi White Sox.
The White Sox choose not to be contenders. I have difficulty looking at a team from Chicago as anything but a large market franchise.
“The inability of so many teams to be true contenders” has been a factor throughout the history of baseball. And no, it hasn’t been a fatal blow to anyone. The Yankees dominated the entire sport from the 1920’s to the mid-1960’s and all the franchises survived. Baseball has always been about the haves and the have-nots, and it will continue to thrive with payrolls large and small.
Hannerin’: RIP the St Louis Browns, the Philadelphia A’s, the Washington Senators times 2, the Boston Braves, the Milwaukee Braves, the Kansas City A’s, the Brooklyn Dodgers, the New York Giants.
If you were a fan of any of those teams you had your heart broken not only by the Yankees winning World Series after World Series but also by your team moving out of your town to stay alive.
Baseball survives, but not without a path of fandom destruction along the way.
And I am talking the pre-divisional split expansion of 1969.
Know your history. Consider the consequences of “all the franchises survived”. Technically yes, but millions of people who were fans have felt the “blows”.
One last commentary: the TV rights Debacle has already set baseball up for the second coming of a larger Have’s and Have Not’s situation. Teams with smaller revenue streams will not be in the mix for any star players in the off-season. The real gaps will evolve to be be between players like Soto and Harper and Ohtani and the like and their other teammates who aren’t finding multi-year, multi-digited contracts available anymore.
Worst take I’ve seen on MLB comments close to ever.
imissjoebuzas: The Dodgers and Giants didn’t need to move to stay alive, but they chose to.
For the Dodgers at least, it was a brilliant business decision.
Forgot about the Expos.
The money that doesn’t go to the players stays in the owners pockets, that’s not greed?
No. That’s business.
And so is being a sports agent and getting the most money for your client.
There’s a certain perspective that says if the overall $ flowing through baseball supports these types of contracts, it may as well go to the talented players who create the $. Owners aren’t losing money.
However over time this does run the risk of creating too great of an inequity between young new talent and the big Soto, Ohtani, Trout, Judge, etc. contracts. Not every team is going to go full farm system like Tampa Bay, but over time the risk is that more teams increase their mix/percentage of farm system/rookie players to “balance their budget”. This is already happening to a small extent, although if it becomes more prevalent – it’s potentially not good for baseball’s middle class of players.
casualfan: You have no basis for saying what he is or isn’t worth.
In the real world and a free market, he actually is worth whatever the high bidder is willing to pay.
So there is “no way anyone is paying him 14 years at 50 per” but 12 years at 40 to 45M per “gets it done”? Those two contracts aren’t really THAT different.
I cannot stand watching him hit. The head shaking and jawing at the pitcher is grating.
luckyh: Who’s forcing you to watch?
Obviously no one. Just stating my opinion which happened to be contrary to someone else’s. That’s how this works.
No shlitz, Sherlock. But if you can’t stand watching something, then don’t watch it.
THATS how life works.
This is about where he lands. If the team I watch signs him just saying it’s not my preference. Not sure why you are so miffed. Is that you Juan?
You’re the one complaining about watching a baseball player hit. Not sure why you’re so miffed, Clark.
I’m not. I can assure you. Complaining? I made one statement in response to another. You are the one who is riled up about a benign comment.
Whatever you say, Kevin.
What’s the draft pick comp if the Mets sign Soto and Burnes??
6 months in jail.
Keep smoking
Soto isn’t worth over 300 million and even then I wouldn’t give him that much.
The league wants him to be a superstar so badly and he just isn’t.
Hes a generational hitter that has an approach (health withstanding) that makes him a potential lineup threat up until he’s 40. He’s a HOF talent. You’re out of pocket.
But that’s the thing. He’s not a generational hitter. He’s pretty darn great but he just played with a guy who is better at hitting then he is. He’s essentially Edgar Martinez with more walks(less singles) and more homers but a lot less doubles. OBP and SLG are quite similar, More BB then K’s. Now Edgar really raked in his 30’s and if Soto is like that, well that’s about 5.5-6 WAR a season, so that’s worth $40mil or so a season.
@casual. I do not have the patience to type out a response to your beyond terrible take. I hope other comments in response will piecemeal my thoughts.
Your comment collapses by saying Soto isn’t generational then comparing him to Edgar. Thats all I’ll say.
At least your call handle is apt. It is nowhere near a “beyond terrible take”. OBP and SLG are similar, OPS+; advantage Soto, but not dramatically so. If you read my post you will see I mentioned Soto is great, just not generational. Both Ohtani and Judge hit better then he did this year. Trout was always better. These are the generational players. If Soto has Edgar’s 30’s that would be an awesome 10 years. You are underestimating how good Edgar was in his 30’s.
You’re underestimating how good Soto has been up until 25. He’s been HOF caliber until now and he’s barely in his prime. Judge and Trout are like 6 years older than Soto at least. And Soto career through this age takes a steaming dump on judges. Since Judge has like 2 season at the same age.
Soto may not have peaked. Who’s to say he won’t have a better later career than judge? With his skill set it’s easy to see
Pretending Soto is not a generational hitter is actually crazy. Hes never posted an OPS+ under 140 to end a season and has posted one over 200. Thats pretty generational. Mike Trout for example has not posted an OPS+ over 200 to end a season. You should be embarrassed that you not only have these thoughts but somehow felt confident enough to share it with the rest of us
People also underestimate the skill part of his game. Hitting is indeed a skill. It’s about knowing which pitches to swing and which ones to take. And it’s about putting solid wood on the ball when you swing. Soto does that about as well as anyone I’ve seen in 57 years of watching the game. He doesn’t give away at-bats. He gets results.
That’s my Soto dilemma as a Dodger fan. On one hand, they don’t “need” him. But on the other, he’s precisely the type of hitter they look for. I won’t mind if he lands somewhere else. But if no one else ponies up and he winds up in Los Angeles, I will enjoy watching him in Dodger Blue until I’m 80. With no guilty feelings.
Yeah, it’s a Beyond Terrible Take. Soto is like a modern-day Ted Williams. If he’s not a generational hitter then who is?
Had free agency existed after Williams’ sixth season in 1947, people would have said the same thing about Ted: He’s slow, unathletic, and a bat-only player. Then they would have complained when the Yankees signed him to bat ahead of or behind Joe DiMaggio.
No he’s not
@casual – Edgar Martinez? That’s your compassion for him?
Comparison *
Edgar Martinez posted
.318/.418/.515 in his career. Taking into account the juices offense era he played in that only translated to a 147 OPS+
Soto has so far posted
.288/.421/.532 which compared to all the other offense during his tenure is OPS+ of 178
Sotos definitely a generational hitter.
Also, the “batter protection” thing is a myth and has been debunked many times.
blogs.fangraphs.com/players-view-does-lineup-prote…
Soto has more power and more walks than Edgar did. A 13% higher OPS+.
Edgar was a HOF player and if he continues to hit like this, even if he moves to DH, so is Soto.
Don’t forget, in Edgar’s age 25 season he played 14 games and was a negative WAR player. Soto played 157 games and put up a 7.9 WAR.
Soto is without a doubt a better player than Edgar was.
It’s a beyond terrible take. Edgar was a HOF player and Soto is much better at a much younger age.
If he’s not a generational hitter then who is?
========================
You’re not a generational hitter unless you are the best hitter of your generation. And you aren’t the best hitter of your generation if you aren’t the best hitter on your team.
That’s false
You can have multiple generational hitters happen simultaneously.
Ruth, Warner, Gehrig, Hornsby
Mayes Aaron
It’s possible to have a couple generational hitters occur right around the same time.
Generational hitter =\= best hitter of your generation
Generational hitter = significantly above the rest of your generation by comparison.
+West Coast
Joe is clearly not the brightest. Hes one of the many regulars who will make giant leaps of logic to reach a position they think justifies downplaying accomplishments of players. Its weird honestly
I find it weird that “knowledgeable” fans think there’s just one best hitter of a generation when if you look at multiple lists of “best mlb hitters ever” and cross reference there’s certainly guys that played during the same era.
And those lists aren’t talking just generational hitters we are talking all time greats across every generation like an all star team of generational hitters.
That article tells me that hitters and pitchers do pitch differently when there’s a better hitter on deck. Maybe not always, but absolutely in big spots. Anyone who plays knows it of course matters, and having to work harder get outs on consecutive batters matters too.
When will people knowledge that “old school” and more contemporary factors, data, and analytics all have some validity and some flaws. That article doesn’t debunk lineup protection as a myth at all.
@El Kabong Fortunately we have a good comp for Soto—he’s Bryce Harper through their age 25 seasons if Harper took an additional 25 BB per season, another several HR / season, while conceding that Harper, not a great fielder by any means, not even average, really, is still noticeably better than Soto. Faster, a better baserunner, and so on.
Also, Soto’s comparative durability adds a hefty bonus to his side of the scale.
Would a sane GM double Harper’s contract or close to it for improvements that are fairly modest at the far end of the scale? Would you want to pay another 25m to get, let’s call him Harper+, when for that 25m you can add a near-ace, or a yearly All-Star elsewhere on the diamond, and with the luxury of not paying one of the latter two players guys until he’s 40?
There’s a significant cost to adding Soto in how his contract dramatically cuts into a good GM’s flexibility year to year.
You might decide it’s worth it, but I’d rather have Harper as of age 26 plus a #1-2 starter, than just Soto, who only rates about 1.3 or 1.4 bWAR better per year than Harper alone from age 19 through 25.
“Lineup threat until he’s 40”..Yes, because things like body mass, reflexes, weight and general health and conditioning never change between age 26 and age 40, right? Soto’s a very good hitter, but it’s quite a stretch to suggest that a very unathletic body type(at age 26) like his will age any better than anyone else.
Unathletic? What makes you say that??
Have you watched him in the outfield ?
Justin Turner is 39 and still lineup threat.
Nelson Cruz was still one at 40
Took a freak accident where Miguel Cabrera ruptured his bicep swinging a bat in 2018 and Miguel playing thru injuries over the years that resulted in chronic knee issues which sapped his power otherwise he’d had been a threat still.
Things you mentioned will definitely impact his ability to play OF long term and may need shifting to 1B and eventually DH
But long as Soto is taking care of himself and treating his body right he will be a lineup threat till 40.
He’s a generational walker, he’s a lifetime .285 hitter who averages 35/100. What separates him is his OBP cause he walks so much. The knock on Soto is that while that’s all good for the stat sheet he seems too eager to walk and not as eager to drive runs in. And as a middle of the order bat that’s what everyone expects and wants him to do. He should sacrifice some of his walks for more runs producing production. He’s gonna be signed to be the big bat in a big situation and more often than not when that moment comes he’s gonna take the walk and leave it to the guy behind him to come through in the big moment.
Not hardly
His 2022 season is more likely what we will see as he gets into his thirties. Just like Alonso pass
LOL! He isn’t even the best hitter on his team, but he is the best hitter in this generation?
lol is right. He’s much younger than Judge so he’s going to get a lot more money. But he’s not as good offensively or defensively right now.
“Until he’s 40” when he’s already one of the slower OFers in the game is wildly optimistic.
He’s slow, a poor baserunner, a bad OFer (albeit with a good arm).
His BA is .269 since 2022 (important bc it’s the baseline on which the tremendous number of BB’s sit). There’s a lot Soto does that is NOT elite. It’s the walks and power, really—old players’ skills.
If he follows typical baselines by age, he’ll be a DH at 28 and catcher-slow at 30, if not earlier.
Can he maintain power, walks, and BA (meaning OBP) for another 15 years? If anything, his limitations don’t just tell us ‘no,’ they tell us ‘he!! no,’ and that his decline in his early 30s won’t just be slow, it will be unpleasant.
Still, very few players come onto the market who will do as much as Soto over the next 4-5 seasons to drive you to the postseason. Even so, he’s no Mookie Betts.in Betts’ prime. He’s no Trout, no Pujols. The idea of paying him record setting money is distinctly odd.
Terrific player, though. I’d be interested in seeing closest comps with old players skills at this young an age, with other star contracts adjusted for baseball inflation.
Career 162-game averages of 35 HR, 102 RBI, and 133 walks.
Career line of .285/.421/.532.
Headed for his fifth Silver Slugger and fifth Top-10 MVP finish.
These are through his age-25 season. How is that not a superstar-level performance?
At the plate, the cat-and-mouse game Soto plays with the pitcher reminds me of George Brett. Like Brett, he always seems like he’s in control of the at-bat, even when he’s behind in the count.
As a Dodger fan, I would love to have him. However, my hunch is that Soto joins his old Nats teammates Harper and Turner and his hitting guru Kevin Long in Philadelphia. The Dodgers could use Soto, but the Phillies need him. Middleton must put his money where his mouth is and not be outbid for Soto’s services. Otherwise, he’ll essentially be trotting out the same team.
It would be good for baseball if Middleton signed Soto to play for the Phiillies. Imagine all the high scoring games where the Phillies would score multiple runs per game with a batting order that featured Soto, Harper, Schwarber, Turner, and Castellanos, and then the opponent would score multiple runs by hitting the balls into the outfield with Soto in center flanked by Schwarber and Castellanos.
@GO1962
Your reputation speaks for itself.
It’s a fair take in my opinion, and one of many reasons that Soto won’t be in Philly. Beyond the potential of creating the worst defense on MLB history, albeit offset by one of the best offenses, the Phillies have more money spoken for in 2025 than any other team in baseball and are loaded down with massive contracts that will extend far beyond next season. They’ll have some important contracts up at the end of next season, so I won’t say it’s completely impossible, but still highly unlikely. Trading for Trout, if he could ever stay healthy, seems like a more likely scenario.
Isn’t it the Dombrowski way, to pass out the massive contracts – followed by someone else having to clean up the mess.
Kinda like the current g o p nominee.
Averages don’t mean anything and playing in that Yankees lineup helps more than you think.
Top 10 in MVP doesn’t mean anything.
He played for the Yankees for one year.
And how did that Yankees lineup get so good this season? By adding Juan Soto, that’s how. Not worth $300 million? Come on.
You’re right. I forgot about him playing with Machado/Tatis/Bogarts.
Also for 1 season lol
And lol to Bogaerts, yah pitchers quivered with fear with him on deck
Absolutely bs comment, with zero facts to back it up. Soto has been a consistent star on all 3 teams he’s suited up for, and the Yankees lineup this year was probably the worst offensive team he’s been on. So how exactly did the 7 regulars with OPS’ under .800 help Soto?
DarrenDreifortsContract: Like casualfan, you have no basis for picking a random number out of the air and saying he’s not worth that much.
If a given owner is willing to pay him X amount, then it makes business sense for that owner and the player is worth X amount by definition.
I so agree with you.
It must be nice to be a fan of a team who spends money. My Mariners will be dumpster diving as usual.
Sorry, but that 1st dumpster your team happens to find is already occupied by my Red Sox. They have been staking claims to the dumpsters for years now. Top 5 income generating revenue team be d*mned!
Yet you have won three World Series’ in the last 20yrs, so…
Phil253: Actually four in the last 21 years.
I guess your big spending ended when Dombrowski left the organization, with a mess of big money, long term contracts.
When ya owner has to consider the Penguins in the NHL…Liverpool in soccer….Rousch/Fenway racing….oh and getting it handed to him in commercial real estate right now…his wallet is kinda tapped…I think he took heavy losses during covid he still hasn’t recovered from quite yet….
Imagine being a Rays fan… Ultimate dumpster divers
Cleveland has entered the chat.
I mean no disrespect, but they certainly do their bargain bin/dumpster diving as well.
soto will go to the pirates and PAY bob nutting to play there…
Only to dwell in the seasons of the abyss
Soto can be Slayer of any team.
you guys think you’re so funny huh
Soto will Show No Mercy when signed.
Bora$ boy doing his job. No way 11 teams think they have a snowballs chance in Miami.
Give Boras credit, he’s being extremely proactive. Probably doesn’t want his agents lingering past January on the market.
I bet Robby the robot was behind the mention of small market teams interested in Soto. Not way that can happen, it would cripple one of those franchises.
Soto is a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills, exactly the type of player you should avoid.
Age? Chronological age doesn’t matter. You gotta consider his speed, athleticism, etc.. In other words, his biological (true) age.
And he’s nowhere near the levels of players like Ohtani, Trout and Judge in terms of on-field performance, talent, etc..
Heck, he’s not even half the player Ohtani is, given Ohtani’s massive off-field value; Ohtani has brought 12 Japanese sponsorships to the Dodgers this year whereas Soto would bring zero Dominican sponsorships.
Lastly, everybody knows MTR is a mouthpiece of Boras.
“Soto is a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills,”
Yeah, like that bum Ted Williams.
But Ted Williams did not have a 10 year contract for $40,000,000 per year. Within a couple of years, managers will no longer want to play Soto in the field because of the lack of speed and athleticism, and Soto will then become a $40,000,000 DH.
These big contracts tend to pay for themselves early. And why do you assume managers won’t want to play him in the field?
“And why do you assume managers won’t want to play him”…How about because he’s a brutal OF defender who takes probably the worst routes in the game. And that’s playing the easiest RF in the game, at Yankee stadium.
Can you imagine him playing RF in Fenway?..Or in Dodger stadium? Being an elite hitter(which he clearly is)and a good defender are two completely separate things.
GO1962: There’s no telling how underpaid and how much greats like Ted Williams were and would have been worth if the reserve system wasn’t being illegally exploited by owners at that time.
If only he and others could have had the basic right to become free agents and change employers if they chose.
Williams first made $100,000 a year in 1949. that is equivalent to $1,319,618 in 2024 dollars. Joe DiMaggio also signed for $100,000 that season, making them the first two to get that much for a season.
Williams would be worth at least $35m per year as a free agent today.
Williams was the highest paid player in 1949 by $32k. That would be like Soto making around $60 million in today’s market.
After Williams earned $90k in 1948 while Dimaggio earned only $68k, DiMaggio demanded the same pay as Williams in 1949. I have found several newspaper articles saying that the Yankees had agreed to pay him that, but no confirmed reports of him making more than $68K until 1951. I have to believe that they did pay him or that whiny beotch would have probably sat out the year.
You also have to realize that players of that era could not become free agents. When FA started with the 1971 season the highest paid player in baseball was Yaz with a $166k salary.
Free agency didn’t start until after Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally had their arbitration rulings after the 1974 season.
Ted Wiliams was coming off consecutive 10+ WAR seasons when he went to fight in WWII after his age 23 season. He didn’t return to MLB until his age 27 season when he again put up a 10+ WAR season.
10 WAR is worth $90+ million in FA today. I doubt Williams would have been paid that much, but he would have crushed the $46.1 million AAV that Ohtani got. By how much is speculation, but a fun mental exercise.
Another one of those fun mental exercises is how much would Trout have made if he was a FA after the 2016 season? As it was Trout got an extension before the 2019 season that will pay him $426.5 million over 12 years. When he retires Trout will have been paid S504.8 million with no deferrals that I know of.
Thanks. You are right about that.
“Free agency in MLB has existed since the 1972 Flood v. Kuhn Supreme Court case. One of the landmark decisions in the aftermath was the Messersmith/McNally Arbitration, also known as the Seitz Decision, which effectively destroyed the “reserve clause” in baseball.”
I think 1974’s highest paid player was Tom Seaver at $174k..
By 1977 Reggie Jackson was making $3.5 million for 5 years.
Then I hope he signs an albatross deal that cripples a team for half a decade. I’d love for it to be the Yankees, as they are probably the only realistic AL bidder.
Why the negativity? You’re rooting for an individual and an organization to fail.
That’s what sports is all about. I don’t care about the players, but I do want to see the Yankees fail.
Sports are about wanting others to fail.
The problem is that deal still wouldn’t cripple the Yankees or dodgers
astros_fan_84: Are you seriously that bitter that your team has stopped winning as much as it was?
I’m not bitter at all. Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano destroyed their franchises prospects of making the playoffs. It’s self inflicted.
I felt bad for Prince Fielder that his career cut short, but his contract hurt the Rangers so badly.
What’s wrong with cheering on dumb moves? I love it when the AL West makes bad trades too.
astros_fan: Maybe you would enjoy Bregman re-signing in Houston and crippling the Astros for 5-7 years. That would be fun for you, wouldn’t it?
That’s actually what I’m afraid of.
Unfortunately, the Dominican Republic is known for primarily agricultural goods, so Soto will not attract the sponsors that Ohtani or Yamamoto can. Maybe Soto can attract a banana grower or cigar producer as sponsors.
Let me guess. You also think they’re eating the cats and dogs.
Jesus christ. The casual racism comes out huh. Surely thats not part of the reason you root against the guy, right?
And here come the cries of (fake) racism. Pathetic.
With almost 80% of the total land area suitable for crop production and about 17% of the labor force engaged in farming, agriculture remains the primary occupation, accounting for 11% of GDP in 2001.
========================
I am trying to figure out what is racist about what he said. If I were to say that the DR was the #2 producer of avocados, is that racist?
Like paying top money for a DH-only player (Ohtani)
Ohtani can pitch. And don’t worry. His employer is happy with the arrangement and doesn’t feel ripped off.
Trout can’t even stay on the field, man. Soto has way more value.
Totally agree.
Remind me to avoid looking at the comments section. Lots of flippant comments by teenagers, waste of time.
Congratulations svet boy, you’ve just earned a one way ticket to the Enchanted Kingdom, you & your little buddies. Ahahahahaha!
I also don’t care for him not hustling to first base after every time at the plate, nothing like Nimmo there. I also have been hearing he’s not greatest in the clubhouse. I’d rather see us get better starting pitching and bullpen help. Stern’s did well with what he provided for us last season, It will be fun to just sit back and see what he does this offseason.
This is a none story we all know he’s going to the White Sox
Jerry is already getting the bobble heads and merchandise ready!
I love the buyers remorse of baseball contracts. Teams get their man and two years in ask, “what have we done?”
See: Padres/Hosmer
The Padres were regretting that one before they signed him.
It took a couple of years to regret the signing. Hope springs eternal
Soto is not worth anywhere close to shohei. I’m sorry, he’s great at what he does, but what he does is at best half of what shohei does.
Hit tool, on base tool, power tool. Not so much fielding, throwing or running. In a couple years, a superstar DH. If I was a wealthy owner of a high budget team, I would pay no more than four years at 50 per year, the next four years at 40 per year, and the last two years at 20 per year. That would be ten years at 400 million. But I do think he will get more than I would pay.
A wealthy owner wants to up the value of their franchise. Having great players and winning is the best way to do that.
It’s really not though. Team valuations are not based heavily on whether the team is good. It has more to do with the balance sheet and what other revenue streams are present.
El Kab
I mostly agree. But putting so many next eggs in a guy who will soon become a DH is not the way to go. Soto is a great hitter more than he is a great athlete, which somewhat offets that he is still very young. When you compare Soto to quality all-around players, I would rather build around Witt, Henderson, Lindor Tatis, Betts. Soto for me is just a hair ahead of Yordan Alvarez and behind Ohtani even if Ohtani stopped pitching. That I could see $400 million is respect, but not seeing him as the very best in baseball.
But his age is a huge factor. On the Phillies, as an example, he will be 30 when Harper is 36. Extend the window. If a team will pay Wheeler $42 million for each of the next three years, they must go all-in. It’s a lot of money to bring him in, but you adjust by managing the payroll when young players come up to replace the likes of Schwarber, Castellanos, Walker, and Realmuto on the payroll. Yes, it’s a lot of eggs in one basket, But you’ve also got to be smart about maintaining the rest of the team.
If a team will pay Wheeler $42 million for each of the next three years, they must go all-in.
=========================
Aren’t the Phillies already all-in? They need a closer, and probably a setup guy, and maybe a #5 SP. They are a pretty good bet to hit the $300M threshold even without Soto.
Ahh, yes. Boras. Heyman.
11 teams? Let’s see; Possible: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, and Padres, Tigers or Orioles.
Doubtful: Braves, Cardinals, White Sox, A’s, Rays, Marlins, Rangers, Astros, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays.
When pigs fly: Pirates, Reds, Guardians, Royals, Brewers, Twins.
You did an excellent job of identifying the probable suspects.
Now’s the hard part: Create a list of teams that might be interested in chronic disappointer Alex Verdugo. Man, did I miss the boat on him.
It’s almost like no one should ever trade with the Dodgers, at least not for prospects close to or with MLB time. I’m convinced they saw that Verdugo just wasn’t the personality fit with their club, that he wasn’t going to buy in to their brand of baseball and clubhouse culture.
When they traded him I didn’t think this. I thought they gave up a valuable piece in an outfielder who had great hit tools and a plus defender. Seems like they knew even if that is the case, he’d never humble himself enough to be what the Dodgers needed in a teammate.
As a red Sox fan, I love that he made the last out
I can’t think of a team where he’d be a good fit.
Could you imagine him the Orioles lineup?
A potentially expensive but devastating core that can grow and win together.
It’s NEVER going to happen, but Soto would look pretty damn great in orange and black, and it would be super cool to see a tippy-top free agent superstar sign somewhere that isn’t NY or LA.
He’s probably going to be wearing orange and blue next year though.
Or KC?
Blue Jays are in on Soto though.
Bucsfan4ever: You obviously haven’t seen the Geico commercial with Maxwell the pig sitting on the airplane.
I’d love to see him as a Mariner, but they would only check in to scare themselves of his price.
No chance on the RS. We already have 3 outfielders, plus two in the minors, and definitely don’t need another another lefty. And if we have $40M to spend, please let it be on pitching.
The Angels won’t be spending. And Soto still wouldn’t put them in the playoffs.
The Orioles need pitching a lot more than hitting.
If Soto were right handed I’d consider us to be a dark horse.
Don’t think the O’s will be in on Soto.
jbigz-
He’s Juan freakin’ Soto, bro. Which side he hits from is utterly irrelevant.
Obviously a RHB makes more sense for the O’s right now due to Cowser, Mullins, and Kjerstad all being LHBs, but if the Orioles can afford him and he’s willing to sign in Baltimore (both are pretty unlikely, but let’s set that aside for now), you absolutely sign him.
O’Neill is a FA. So only Abreu is in a corner OF spot on the Red Sox in 2025. If you are counting Rafaela as an OF, his 85 OPS+ wouldn’t block them from signing Soto. If O’Neill was coming back, there still would not be anyone that would be blocking Soto.
If they are interested, and I am 100% sure they are, no prospect would keep them from signing Soto.
You put Abreu or Rafaela or Anthony on the trading block to fill other holes and put Soto in a corner OF spot.
Soto, Durran, Abreu would be one of the best OF in baseball. Last season the 3 combined for 20 WAR.
Not only that, but signing Soto takes 7 WAR off the Yankees.
The contract length is just to lower the AAV. I would not be shocked if it’s 600M/15. I don’t think he will get Otani money.
My guess is he ends up on one of the NY teams the Yankees seem the most logical but Cohen is capable of saying whatever the highest bid is bid more. I think he’s learned to pick the players he makes these huge investments in wisely but Soto is one of only a handful of players that make sense to do it for. I’ve heard and commented on the Dodgers link which I think is a bad look for baseball given how much they’ve spent on free agents in recent memory and coming off a WS title without Soto but even though I don’t think he’ll ultimately wind up there they’ve definitely shown they’ll open their deep pockets for the top free agents of the class can’t rule them out ever.
He’s going to the Marlins. Book it.
2025 field guide to playing Yankees. Walk Judge 4 times.
Huge Yankees fan and would love to have him back but for what price? It would blowup their payroll.Great player but does not have all tools!
$700 million
HAHAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA
I reached out to Jisoo and Lisa a while back. Still waiting for a reply…….
Lots of teams will check in, that’s just being responsible. There’s really only like 5 teams truly in on Soto. Mets, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, and the ever-present “mystery team”, which is also the Yankees by the way.
SF Giants
Don’t rule out Washington. Likely won’t happen, but they’ve spent big before.
Please stay far away AJ. Just because the piece fits, doesn’t mean it’s the right piece.
Question, by definition if it fits, doesn’t it make it the right piece?
In what dream world would Soto be worth more to any club than Ohtani ?
He isn’t. He isn’t worth more than Judge, either, for that matter, but his contract is going to dwarf the Judge contract. His age is the big thing.
In a real world where Soto was in his age 25 season in 2024 and Ohtani.was in his age 29 season.
4 seasons of baseball is a lifetime. Position players as a whole begin to decline in their age 31 season. For Ohtani, that is 2025. For Soto that is 2030.
Yes, there are exceptions to that rule where a player extends their peak for a year or two, but time is undefeated and later on that decline catches up. Before Soto starts to decline, Ohtani will be in steep decline as a hitter.
In 2024, for players 35 and older, the highest WAR was Carlos Santana at 2.5. Next up was Turner at 1.5 WAR Then Goldy at 1.3 WAR. No one else was over 0.8 WAR. In 2023 that range was 3.4 WAR to -0.2 WAR. In 2022 that range was 3.4 WAR to -0.2 WAR.
In 2030, that range is the level of performance to expect from Ohtani. About 60% lower than in his age 30 season.
In 2030 Soto can be expected to be peaking. If that peak is no higher than the 7.9 WAR he put up this season, that is still much higher than what to expect from Ohtani in his age 35 season.
It’ll come down to Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers. I doubt the Mets signed him though, they seem to miss out on signing the big boy talent, and it’s probably for the better.
Im curious why they would say Ohtani is the only player to eclipse a contract over $400 million, when Trout signed a 12-year / $426 Million extension with the Angels a couple years ago….
Upvote that!
I wonder the same.
I think they are talking about luxury tax value, so net vs gross, maybe?
I believe they are talking about a FA contract. As you said, Trout was signing an extension. You can only wonder what Trout would have gotten if he was able to be a FA after the 2016 season?
Heyman is a boras bot so anything he says should come with an *.
My guess is the Guardians will sign him. Having witnessed their neighbors losing LeBron and hence not getting Bronny James, the Guards will sign Soto, ensuring the inside track to Juanny Soto, a 160/215/212 career hitter renowned for his defense.
Soto isn’t going to the Yankees, imho. They will be involved up to a point and then appeal to him with “legacy.” But, Soto is more interested in taking the highest price tag (so long as it’s a competitive team).
The Yankees missed out on so many players because they were unwilling to move the price beyond a “reasonable market price” that they created their own problems. Coincidentally, they then overpay for lesser talent that doesn’t achieve the intended results.
How about they not focus so much on Soto, and instead focus on fielding a fly ball, catching a ball from the OF, throwing the ball fifteen feet to the arm side in the air, not missing middle-middle pitches, covering 1B from the mound (PIPs), and not making excuses…. Just an idea.
Lol. Mandatory winterball!
And may I include– hitting the cutoff man with throws from the outfield, backing up infielders on stolen base attempts, and taking control of pop flies instead of forcing the infielders to attempt catching them while running backwards. And how about immediately punishing ballplayers when they do something stupid on the field? The Yankees win because of their overall talent level, not because of how they manifest their prowess on the field. They are maddening to watch.
Fangraphs has them rated as the worst baserunning team.
I doubt Yanks will end up re-signing him unless they are prepared to pay him well over what Judge got. Don’t think he ends up beating Ohtanis contract also. My prediction is he ends up getting a deal with the Mets at a super high AAV. Something like 10 years 500-600 mil with multiple opt outs and no deferred money.
He’s 100% going to get over what Judge got.
Let see how greedy Boras wants to be?
I am guessing that the Orioles were one of the 2 smaller market teams that checked in on him. New Orioles owner Dave Rubenstein recently said that he wants to speed up the process of winning a World Series due to his age (75) and that payroll is going to go up to facilitate that pursuit, and RF in Baltimore is now open with Anthony Santander reaching free agency (plus his spot in the heart of the lineup).
It will be April or May before this question is answered.
Only teams willing to live in the luxury tax can sign Soto and field a competive team. Dodgers don’t need him. They need pitching. So that leaves the Mets and Yankmes as likely and maybe the nats, giants and maybe a surprise team. Plus he’s a boras client. I don’t think so to gets what he thinks he’s getting. Maybe if he Freddie the ws instead of freeman. Maybe.
Hey Borasshole, what are you asking for Soto’s services ?….oh really, LOL, click.
I’m guessing he’ll get another 1 year deal.
I don’t think the guy who sent the Yankees to the WS is settling* for a 1 year deal
*Unless someone pays him $100 mil for 1 year
Soto/Harris/Acuna sounds nice.
Can you please stop using MM for Million???. Just use M like everyone else. T for thousand. B for billion.
Sorry, K for Thousand, T is Trillion. I can’t be the only one annoyed by the MM
You are the only one.
One quibble: T is for trillions and K is for thousands.
Seeing players of this caliber in the market makes me sad to be a pirates fan
Don’t be. Some sucker owner is going to give him some ridiculous contract in yrs and $ and they will live to regret it. You can count on one hand how many massive, long-term contracts were actually worth the money.
As a Yankees fan, I’m really hoping Cohen outbids Hal or Hal just simply draws a line in the sand. Soto is an average player outside of his bat, and I – and others – have doubts about him being 26.
Assuming his age is correct then a longer term deal isn’t a horrible thing, but yeah someone will over pay
More than 50% of all 7+ year contracts have at least broken even for the team. It’s sad that people diss long term deals without actually looking it up.
Just remember the billionaires and the Ivy League people they are hiring, people much smarter than you or I, say that the deals are worth it to the team. But somehow you think they are not. Who is right? Tough one. NOT!
I love “a dozen teams” reached out to Soto. We know Mets and Yankees are to be involved. We know the athletics, Marlins, and Angels won’t be involved. Name them all! Otherwise what’s the point of the story?
And, name the “mystery team(s)” that refuse to identify them selves
and, oftentimes, turn out to just be a ploy to drive up free agent prices.
“Some sucker owner is going to give him some ridiculous contract in yrs and $ and they will live to regret it. ”
People said the same thing about Bryce Harper, who has proven to be a goldmine for the Phillies. Today, that contract looks like a bargain.
Most people seem to me to base their opinion on the last year or two of long-term contracts and completely forget the first few.
I predict Soto will have a wonderful time on his Free Agency Tour, and then sign with the Yankees
Soto is a very good player who, when having a good year, can help his team get to the playoffs
(if your team is already loaded with talented players).
But, again, as with Soto’s time with the Padres, Soto IS NOT THE PLAYER WHO WILL PUT THE TEAM ON HIS BACK AND CARRY YOUR TEAM TO A CHAMPIONSHIP. Soto failed to even come close to that with the Padres in 2 pennant races.
And, for the Yankees in the just completed World Series, when the Yankees needed a big jolt and some big game changing extra base hits like home runs or at least doubles, Soto, as what happened during Soto’s time with the pennant contending Padres, Soto’s big bat was AWOL.
Soto played on a Championship team with the Nationals. But, as we have seen with Soto’s time both the Padres and the Yankees, Soto IS NO FREDDIE FREEMAN. Soto DOES NOT RISE TO THE OCCASION AND CARRY YOUR TEAM TO A CHAMPIONSHIP!
Even the TV announcers in the World Series saw the exact same thing that I saw with Soto in his 2 pennant races with the Padres:
Soto WAS NOT THE BIG CLUTCH GAME BREAKING, SERIES WINNING POWER HITTER AND RBI GUY.
SOTO WAS NOT THAT GUY IN SAN DIEGO IN 2 PENNANT RACES.
SOTO WAS NOT THAT GUY FOR THE YANKEES IN THE WORLD SERIES (UNLIKE FREDDIE FREEMAN FOR THE DODGERS).
Even the World Series TV announcers echoed my comments about
Soto letting fastballs right down the middle of the plate go by unchallenged in the World Series. The Yankees desperately needed the power hitting Juan Soto to show up. He did not. The Soto looking for walks and to pad his personal stats.
Many in MLB have gone too far down the stats rabbit hole and cannot see the forest when they are standing right in the trees.
Stats obsessed teams has lead to selfish stats obsessed players primarily worried about maximizing their next big fat contract.
Winning has become a secondary concern with some players obsessed about stats and how big of a contract that they can land off their personal stats.
Agents also play a big part in this attitude to pump their client’s stats and line him up for the next huge, record breaking contract.
Walks and on base percentage appear to rule over going for the aggressive home run and/or clutch doubles in the playoffs and World Series.
Instead, the Yankees got the selfish, personal stats obsessed left handed hitting Soto staring at a RF porch with only 314 feed from home plate that a player with Soto’s immense power and talent should have owned that right field porch in the World Series with multiple home runs in the World Series.
Freddie Freeman a 25M per year player hit a home run in just about every game and completely outclassed Soto in the World Series.
This kind of timidity of players and complete surrender to the “stats gods” is frustrating to fans seeking offensive production from star players in the season, playoffs and World Series.
And, the TV announcers also criticized Soto for taking such a short lead when he did get to 1st base and putting the Yankees in danger of a force out or a double play and not scoring his run.
Soto was not aggressive enough at the plate and on the bases when he did get on.
In the playoffs and in the World Series, Soto should own that right field porch in Yankee Stadium.
Soto should be parking at least 1 homer per game in the World Series in that short RF @ Yankee stadium. Soto should be mashing doubles to the which he did not do with any consistency.
And, the way the Dodgers were turning just about every game into a bullpen game, the Yankees hitters were seeing all the Dodgers relievers very frequently so, NO EXCUSES for professional star players like Soto not producing at a very high level.
If I was the team president or GM of the Yankees, Mets of other teams, then I am looking for the next Freddie Freeman for 25M per year and PASSING ON SOTO.
Some fool team will VASTLY OVERPAY FOR SOTO in the 400M-600M range for 10-14 years and not get Freddie Freeman like Elite production from Soto in future playoffs and World Series(s).
Soto is the latest free agent “shiny object”‘.
And, someone with stupid money will pay Soto
and then complain about that bad contract for the last 7-10 years of that deal
Next up, Soto’s agent’s employee trolls will attack me and try to make excuses for Soto not doing what their team paid him to do which is carry the Yankees to a World Series Championship with his bat.
Stop looking for so many walks. Stop letting fastballs right down the middle go by without swinging. When you get to 1st base, stop being so timid. Your leads looked like you were playing 1st base and not a runner trying to get into position to score a run. Be in the moment. Your team and your fans want you to be like Freddie Freeman in the playoffs and World Series and not concede your offensive team leadership role to minimum pay hitters and 5 million dollar players.
This is Giancarlo Stanton 2.0 just waiting to happen and clog up the Yankees payroll for the next 10-14 years,
No offense to Giancarlo Stanton he is a great hitter, just injured too much.
Yes, there is a very good chance that Soto makes the Hall of Fame if he can put up individual stats that are even in the ballpark of what he put up this year in the regular season.
But, baseball is a “team game”.
If the Yankees or Mets pay Soto 500M or 600M they expect “Freddie Freeman” MVP performances in the playoffs and the World Series.
If not, any team signing Soto is wasting their money and would be better off spreading that 500-600M among multiple free agent players, plugging multiple holes on their team.
Excellent post I hope Hal is paying attention
In 2023, the Dodgers didn’t get Freddie Freeman-like production in the post-season. But over time, you’d still want him in the middle of your lineup..
Saying an elite bat such as Soto doesn’t contribute to his team winning is ludicrous. He’s been to the World Series twice. Take him away, and neither of those teams would have come close to making it that far. If Soto signs with the Dodgers, I will welcome him with open arms.
By the way, no team pays one player to carry them.
No one said that Soto did not contribute to his team winning in the regular season. But, Soto was just one of many talented bats in DC, San Diego and NYC.
Curtis Granderson was hitting 41 and 43 home runs as a Yankee into that short RF porch at Yankee Stadium
Aaron Judge has hit 52 home runs, 62 home runs and 58 home runs as a Yankee.
The NYY are paying Aaron Judge 40M per year.
You are not going to tell me that Soto should make 10M-20m per year more than Aaron Judge?!
That is financial insanity!
And those Nationals and Yankees teams were both loaded with star players so you cannot say that the Nats or the Yankees don’t make the Series without Soto.
.
Maybe, they plug in 2-3 hitters and a starter or 2 that gives the NYY
more overall production and chances to win than just paying/playing 1 juan Soto to play RF and hit 1 time through the batting order?!
I so hope that Hal is smart enough to let Soto go
He is so over rated
Terrific player but, yeah, he’s somewhat overrated.
In addition, whoever gets him will be paying a premium of at least $50m and probably $100m thanks to his career year, which didn’t really show a new level for the player.
Still, if you’re an average team looking in one shot to be in a regular contest for the 2nd or 3rd wildcard, Soto will do that for the next 4-5 years. He’s also good enough to carry a team through a postseason—-that matters, a lot.
11/517 or 12/564 are my predictions. I already think that’s too high in my personal opinion, but as many say… not my money. I think anything more than that is a mistake. I’d rather see something more like a 4/220 deal and let him hit FA at 30 again.
Steve Cohen WILL NOT !!! be out bidded by anyone . Take that to the bank
If Cohen wants him that bad he will get him
Stearns is apparently too smart to sign Soto to a deal like 14/$550m.
Soto’s value is capped by his poor fielding and weak, limited skills outside walks and power. Not to say those aren’t great skills to have, but it’s also why his best year clocked in at 7.9 bWAR, and not 10+ as with Betts, Judge, Ohtani… He’s much more in Freddie Freeman’s tier than he is one of those three, AND he’s going to be paid like Ohtani, but without being the gate attraction.
Soto was also stuck at 5 bWAR for the majority of his full seasons. That’s likely to continue with just two more prime age seasons before the decline begins.
Would you rather have, say, Freeman plus Corbin Burnes, or Juan Soto? That’s just one of the many framings that suggest there are far better ways to spread out your payroll.