Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway. Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures. However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is finished.
The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.
Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller. Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.
To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top $700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around $438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.
There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of $700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual value is the only AAV north of $44MM.
No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.
Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason, perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty much the entirety of the player universe.”
Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in international bonus pool space to sign him.
That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.
NY Post? Maybe there are 40-159 teams if it’s Heyman. Potential intergalactic league offers, Space Jam style.
Long Island Ducks are in pursuit.
My son’s T-ball team also checked in with the Soto camp.
Nonsense! I heard he’s on a flight to Toronto as we speak.
Soto is a joy to watch with the stick. One of the top 2-3 hitters in MLB. There is no way anyone is paying him 14 years at 50mil per with no deferrals. He is not worth anywhere near that. I have have no idea, maybe 12/480-500mil gets it done?
I don’t think I’d even be agreeable to an 8 year contract for Soto. And I agree that he’s one of the best hitters in baseball.
The length of these contracts has gotten ridiculous. The owners need to reevaluate at what point does the greed involved, begin to hurt the fan’s desire to support it.
To me, the inability of so many teams to be true contenders will lead to a fatal blow to many franchises. It’s already happening with cities wanting no part in letting tax money be used to build new parks. See: Chi White Sox.
The White Sox choose not to be contenders. I have difficulty looking at a team from Chicago as anything but a large market franchise.
casualfan: You have no basis for saying what he is or isn’t worth.
In the real world and a free market, he actually is worth whatever the high bidder is willing to pay.
What’s the draft pick comp if the Mets sign Soto and Burnes??
Soto isn’t worth over 300 million and even then I wouldn’t give him that much.
The league wants him to be a superstar so badly and he just isn’t.
Hes a generational hitter that has an approach (health withstanding) that makes him a potential lineup threat up until he’s 40. He’s a HOF talent. You’re out of pocket.
But that’s the thing. He’s not a generational hitter. He’s pretty darn great but he just played with a guy who is better at hitting then he is. He’s essentially Edgar Martinez with more walks(less singles) and more homers but a lot less doubles. OBP and SLG are quite similar, More BB then K’s. Now Edgar really raked in his 30’s and if Soto is like that, well that’s about 5.5-6 WAR a season, so that’s worth $40mil or so a season.
@casual. I do not have the patience to type out a response to your beyond terrible take. I hope other comments in response will piecemeal my thoughts.
Your comment collapses by saying Soto isn’t generational then comparing him to Edgar. Thats all I’ll say.
At least your call handle is apt. It is nowhere near a “beyond terrible take”. OBP and SLG are similar, OPS+; advantage Soto, but not dramatically so. If you read my post you will see I mentioned Soto is great, just not generational. Both Ohtani and Judge hit better then he did this year. Trout was always better. These are the generational players. If Soto has Edgar’s 30’s that would be an awesome 10 years. You are underestimating how good Edgar was in his 30’s.
You’re underestimating how good Soto has been up until 25. He’s been HOF caliber until now and he’s barely in his prime. Judge and Trout are like 6 years older than Soto at least. And Soto career through this age takes a steaming dump on judges. Since Judge has like 2 season at the same age.
Soto may not have peaked. Who’s to say he won’t have a better later career than judge? With his skill set it’s easy to see
Pretending Soto is not a generational hitter is actually crazy. Hes never posted an OPS+ under 140 to end a season and has posted one over 200. Thats pretty generational. Mike Trout for example has not posted an OPS+ over 200 to end a season. You should be embarrassed that you not only have these thoughts but somehow felt confident enough to share it with the rest of us
“Lineup threat until he’s 40”..Yes, because things like body mass, reflexes, weight and general health and conditioning never change between age 26 and age 40, right? Soto’s a very good hitter, but it’s quite a stretch to suggest that a very unathletic body type(at age 26) like his will age any better than anyone else.
Unathletic? What makes you say that??
Career 162-game averages of 35 HR, 102 RBI, and 133 walks.
Career line of .285/.421/.532.
Headed for his fifth Silver Slugger and fifth Top-10 MVP finish.
These are through his age-25 season. How is that not a superstar-level performance?
At the plate, the cat-and-mouse game Soto plays with the pitcher reminds me of George Brett. Like Brett, he always seems like he’s in control of the at-bat, even when he’s behind in the count.
As a Dodger fan, I would love to have him. However, my hunch is that Soto joins his old Nats teammates Harper and Turner and his hitting guru Kevin Long in Philadelphia. The Dodgers could use Soto, but the Phillies need him. Middleton must put his money where his mouth is and not be outbid for Soto’s services. Otherwise, he’ll essentially be trotting out the same team.
It would be good for baseball if Middleton signed Soto to play for the Phiillies. Imagine all the high scoring games where the Phillies would score multiple runs per game with a batting order that featured Soto, Harper, Schwarber, Turner, and Castellanos, and then the opponent would score multiple runs by hitting the balls into the outfield with Soto in center flanked by Schwarber and Castellanos.
@GO1962
Your reputation speaks for itself.
Averages don’t mean anything and playing in that Yankees lineup helps more than you think.
Top 10 in MVP doesn’t mean anything.
He played for the Yankees for one year.
DarrenDreifortsContract: Like casualfan, you have no basis for picking a random number out of the air and saying he’s not worth that much.
If a given owner is willing to pay him X amount, then it makes business sense for that owner and the player is worth X amount by definition.
It must be nice to be a fan of a team who spends money. My Mariners will be dumpster diving as usual.
Sorry, but that 1st dumpster your team happens to find is already occupied by my Red Sox. They have been staking claims to the dumpsters for years now. Top 5 income generating revenue team be d*mned!
Yet you have won three World Series’ in the last 20yrs, so…
Phil253: Actually four in the last 21 years.
I guess your big spending ended when Dombrowski left the organization, with a mess of big money, long term contracts.
Imagine being a Rays fan… Ultimate dumpster divers
Cleveland has entered the chat.
I mean no disrespect, but they certainly do their bargain bin/dumpster diving as well.
soto will go to the pirates and PAY bob nutting to play there…
Only to dwell in the seasons of the abyss
Soto can be Slayer of any team.
Bora$ boy doing his job. No way 11 teams think they have a snowballs chance in Miami.
Give Boras credit, he’s being extremely proactive. Probably doesn’t want his agents lingering past January on the market.
Soto is a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills, exactly the type of player you should avoid.
Age? Chronological age doesn’t matter. You gotta consider his speed, athleticism, etc.. In other words, his biological (true) age.
And he’s nowhere near the levels of players like Ohtani, Trout and Judge in terms of on-field performance, talent, etc..
Heck, he’s not even half the player Ohtani is, given Ohtani’s massive off-field value; Ohtani has brought 12 Japanese sponsorships to the Dodgers this year whereas Soto would bring zero Dominican sponsorships.
Lastly, everybody knows MTR is a mouthpiece of Boras.
“Soto is a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills,”
Yeah, like that bum Ted Williams.
But Ted Williams did not have a 10 year contract for $40,000,000 per year. Within a couple of years, managers will no longer want to play Soto in the field because of the lack of speed and athleticism, and Soto will then become a $40,000,000 DH.
These big contracts tend to pay for themselves early. And why do you assume managers won’t want to play him in the field?
“And why do you assume managers won’t want to play him”…How about because he’s a brutal OF defender who takes probably the worst routes in the game. And that’s playing the easiest RF in the game, at Yankee stadium.
Can you imagine him playing RF in Fenway?..Or in Dodger stadium? Being an elite hitter(which he clearly is)and a good defender are two completely separate things.
GO1962: There’s no telling how underpaid and how much greats like Ted Williams were and would have been worth if the reserve system wasn’t being illegally exploited by owners at that time.
If only he and others could have had the basic right to become free agents and change employers if they chose.
Then I hope he signs an albatross deal that cripples a team for half a decade. I’d love for it to be the Yankees, as they are probably the only realistic AL bidder.
Why the negativity? You’re rooting for an individual and an organization to fail.
The problem is that deal still wouldn’t cripple the Yankees or dodgers
astros_fan_84: Are you seriously that bitter that your team has stopped winning as much as it was?
Unfortunately, the Dominican Republic is known for primarily agricultural goods, so Soto will not attract the sponsors that Ohtani or Yamamoto can. Maybe Soto can attract a banana grower or cigar producer as sponsors.
Let me guess. You also think they’re eating the cats and dogs.
Jesus christ. The casual racism comes out huh. Surely thats not part of the reason you root against the guy, right?
Like paying top money for a DH-only player (Ohtani)
Ohtani can pitch. And don’t worry. His employer is happy with the arrangement and doesn’t feel ripped off.
This is a none story we all know he’s going to the White Sox
Jerry is already getting the bobble heads and merchandise ready!
I love the buyers remorse of baseball contracts. Teams get their man and two years in ask, “what have we done?”
Soto is not worth anywhere close to shohei. I’m sorry, he’s great at what he does, but what he does is at best half of what shohei does.
Hit tool, on base tool, power tool. Not so much fielding, throwing or running. In a couple years, a superstar DH. If I was a wealthy owner of a high budget team, I would pay no more than four years at 50 per year, the next four years at 40 per year, and the last two years at 20 per year. That would be ten years at 400 million. But I do think he will get more than I would pay.
A wealthy owner wants to up the value of their franchise. Having great players and winning is the best way to do that.
It’s really not though. Team valuations are not based heavily on whether the team is good. It has more to do with the balance sheet and what other revenue streams are present.
El Kab
I mostly agree. But putting so many next eggs in a guy who will soon become a DH is not the way to go. Soto is a great hitter more than he is a great athlete, which somewhat offets that he is still very young. When you compare Soto to quality all-around players, I would rather build around Witt, Henderson, Lindor Tatis, Betts. Soto for me is just a hair ahead of Yordan Alvarez and behind Ohtani even if Ohtani stopped pitching. That I could see $400 million is respect, but not seeing him as the very best in baseball.
Ahh, yes. Boras. Heyman.
11 teams? Let’s see; Possible: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, and Padres, Tigers or Orioles.
Doubtful: Braves, Cardinals, White Sox, A’s, Rays, Marlins, Rangers, Astros, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays.
When pigs fly: Pirates, Reds, Guardians, Royals, Brewers, Twins.
You did an excellent job of identifying the probable suspects.
Now’s the hard part: Create a list of teams that might be interested in chronic disappointer Alex Verdugo. Man, did I miss the boat on him.
Could you imagine him the Orioles lineup?
Blue Jays are in on Soto though.
Bucsfan4ever: You obviously haven’t seen the Geico commercial with Maxwell the pig sitting on the airplane.
The contract length is just to lower the AAV. I would not be shocked if it’s 600M/15. I don’t think he will get Otani money.
My guess is he ends up on one of the NY teams the Yankees seem the most logical but Cohen is capable of saying whatever the highest bid is bid more. I think he’s learned to pick the players he makes these huge investments in wisely but Soto is one of only a handful of players that make sense to do it for. I’ve heard and commented on the Dodgers link which I think is a bad look for baseball given how much they’ve spent on free agents in recent memory and coming off a WS title without Soto but even though I don’t think he’ll ultimately wind up there they’ve definitely shown they’ll open their deep pockets for the top free agents of the class can’t rule them out ever.