The Mariners missed qualifying for the postseason by just one game — a heartbreaking outcome for a club that held a commanding 10-game lead in the American League West back in June. Seattle’s offense floundered all year on the heels of a 2023-24 offseason punctuated by payroll restrictions and a series of salary-driven trades to help balance the lineup while adhering to a budget that was tighter than most anticipated.
Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times have some relatively good news for frustrated M’s fans on that front, reporting that ownership expects payroll to increase in 2025. That’s a breath of fresh air after it became clear almost immediately last offseason that payroll had minimal room to grow. On the other hand, the Times duo adds that a major free agent splash is not expected, thus suggesting that any uptick in payroll could be fairly modest in nature.
Seattle’s roster is overwhelmingly cost controlled, as the bulk of its core is either signed long-term or in the early stages of arbitration. As is the case with all teams fitting that description, there are some natural payroll increases that should be baked into the offseason.
Julio Rodriguez will see his salary jump from $10MM to $18MM under the terms of his long-term extension, for example. Victor Robles only cost the Mariners the prorated league minimum this year after being released by the Nationals, but he’ll earn $3.5MM next year on the two-year extension he signed in August. Dylan Moore, Andres Munoz and Mitch Garver will also see small salary increases on their guaranteed multi-year deals, all of which are slightly backloaded. It’s not all increases, however. Mitch Haniger’s deal is frontloaded, and he’ll actually see his salary drop from this year’s $20MM mark to the $15.5MM level on a player option he’s sure to exercise.
The bigger area for increase lies within the Mariners’ arbitration class. First-time candidates include Cal Raleigh and George Kirby, both of whom should command significant raises and could go from costing the club a combined $1.5MM to somewhere in the combined $10MM range. Randy Arozarena ($8.1MM in 2024), Logan Gilbert ($4.05MM) and Josh Rojas ($3.1MM) are in line for the most notable raises among the rest of the group, though relievers like Trent Thornton ($1.2MM in ’24), Austin Voth ($1.25MM), JT Chargois ($1.285MM), Gabe Speier (pre-arb) and Tayler Saucedo (pre-arb) could all get boosts as well. Luis Urias is all but a surefire non-tender candidate, and injured utilityman Sam Haggerty isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be tendered.
Assuming the Mariners decline Jorge Polanco’s $12MM option after a disappointing 2024 season — Divish and Jude unsurprisingly write that they’re likely to do so — and tender contracts to Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert, Rojas, Thornton, and Saucedo, they’ll land somewhere in the $140MM payroll range before making a single move this offseason (including a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). This year’s payroll was finished just shy of $145MM, per RosterResource.
An increased payroll, then, doesn’t necessarily signify the looming addition of any large salaries to be acquired via free agency or trade. That said, word of an increasing payroll also does lend some insight into the direction the team will take. For instance, we’ve already seen the Cardinals plainly state that next year’s payroll will decrease. It became clear almost immediately in the Twins’ offseason last year that payroll would decline from 2023 to 2024. We’re five years removed (to the day) from Rockies ownership kicking off the winter by saying they lacked flexibility for additions of note. With Jerry Dipoto returning as president of baseball operations, there’s always a “never say never” caveat attached to virtually any player’s trade candidacy, as he’s among the game’s most active executives on that market. Still, there’s no reason to anticipate sweeping changes among the team’s excellent young core.
Rather, the focus once again seems likely to be on reinventing an offense that has been continually stagnant despite repeated personnel changes. The M’s would no doubt welcome the opportunity to get out from some or all of their commitments to Haniger and Garver, but that’ll be no small feat. They’ll again be looking to upgrade at third and/or second base after last year’s pickups of Polanco and Urias didn’t yield the intended results. First base is an open question, though the hope is that young Tyler Locklear can solidify the position.
The outfield/designated hitter mix — Arozarena, Rodriguez, Robles and Luke Raley — is largely set, and the Mariners don’t figure to be major players in the starting pitching market. Gilbert and Kirby will be rejoined by Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, comprising a brilliant rotation. Other clubs will surely try to pry some of those young, cost-controlled arms away from the Mariners while dangling promising young hitters in return. However, Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander opted not to deal from that rotation stock last year and would surely be reluctant to do so this coming offseason, given the near-unmatched blend of excellent results and affordable price tags they have throughout the starting staff.
Divish and Jude write that Dipoto spoke of ways to “address our holes that maybe don’t include [trading away] the players that are here” — a potential nod to dealing from a deep farm rather than subtracting from the big league roster. Prospects like Locklear, catcher/outfielder Harry Ford, right-hander Logan Evans, outfielders Jonny Farmelo and Lazaro Montes, and infielders Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Felnin Celesten have all garnered fanfare among the game’s top-100 prospects since midseason. More broadly, the Mariners rank 11th or better on the midseason farm system rankings from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (11th), MLB.com (ninth) and Baseball America (seventh). Dipoto and Hollander will have no shortage of coveted young talent to peddle on the market if the goal is to augment the lineup without heavily subtracting from the current big league roster.
sadMariner
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Mariners have a great rotation, every reason to see them in next year’s mix.
Tom Price
Problem they have is no one wants to go to the Siberia of MLB.
mlb fan
“No one wants to go to”…That’s the same, tired excuse often used by Farhan Zaidi and you saw what happened to him. There’s no market in MLB that cannot attract premium players with the right amount of money.
If players will go to Detroit, players will go anywhere. Only the most ineffectual front offices even try to use that same old very tired excuse.
James123
even the worst cities have enough going on that they are not a terrible place to be if you have some cash. Players also are working a lot during the season, and offseason whereever they want to (for the 3-4 months they get off). So a lot of players at best have a place in the nicer burbs of the city they play in, and their offseason home in the south.
myaccount2
None of the big free agents, sure, but none of the big free agents are in play anyway, so that’s irrelevant. M’s don’t have trouble attracting mid-market guys or getting players to commit after trades. It was no issue getting Castillo to extend at a below-market rate.
Bob Sacamano 310
They can trade for guys with higher salaries (Luis Robert comes to mind).
Bnickles127
Just gotta find that IF that compares to L Robert cuz they shouldn’t focus on OF unless that’s their only way to upgrade
Stevil
Seattle doesn’t need a regular outfielder. Someone like Robert just doesn’t make sense.
But I agree that trading for a someone with a significant contract could make sense. I can think of a few teams with budget limitations and solid players with high AAV, long(er)-term contracts that might make sense if Seattle could move Haniger and Garver in the returns.
C Yards Jeff
@Tom Price; agree to an extent. Definitely dank and cold in places like Seattle and San Fran.
Hitters. Agree. From personal experience, not fun to hit in those conditions.
Pitchers. Disagree. A teammate pitcher back in the day loved throwing in those conditions.
NYCityRiddler
“On the other hand, the Times duo adds that a major free agent splash is not expected, thus suggesting that any uptick in payroll could be fairly modest in nature.” WTH does that mean, they’re throwing an extra couple hundred bucks? They REALLY just don’t get it. Ahahaha!
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
I don’t believe you
Salvi
Craig Breslow is on the line from Boston, wondering if you want to part with Kirby or Gilbert for Triston Casas and a prospect.
Old York
@Salvi
That’s a terrible trade. Would make more sense trade for Vlad Jr., given he would provide them with actual offensive production that you can rely upon from a 1B player.
Salvi
@ Old York
Trading for Vlad is a terrible trade. Youre going to give up a pitcher that has 3 or 4 years control for a first baseman that will need to be signed to mega contract in a year, or he walks? Lol.
Old York
@Salvi
My point is that the M’s need offensive production and what you’re proposing for top pitchers is quite little and doesn’t resolve the offensive production the M’s need.
Sure, trading all those guys for 1 year of Vlad is too much but trading all those pitchers for Casas is not worth it.
Salvi
“all those pitchers”
How many pitchers do you think “Kirby or Gilbert” totals? I count ONE.
Old York
Both!
Salvi
Do you understand the conjunction “or” and what it does. You normally have much more intelligent things to say than this.
Old York
@Salvi
You’re proposing either one and I’m saying it’s too much. Reading comprehension usually starts in grade 1.
Salvi
“trading all those pitchers for Casas” is not “either one”
Its not what you said. Writing clearly is a challenge for you. Goodbye.
Old York
@Salvi
Good. Get out of here with your ridiculous trade ideas.
James123
i doubt they trade the headliner pitchers they currently have, but some of those prospects like Emmerson or Montes should land them a MLB ready bat where they need it. as an os fan the 2 that come to mind are Basallo and Kjerstad- as very good players who are odd men out right now….. the Os get younger prospects (the Ms may need to throw something else in) and the Ms get impact hitters now with years of control left.
Canuckleball
Casas and prospects gets you Emerson Hancock… maybe.
Any trade for a top Mariners pitcher starts with Jarren Duran.
Salvi
Emerson Hancock? Lol. You means Fitts and a prospect right?
James123
i was thinking that Hancock has some upside but looks like a 5th starter right now. With lots of team control- that is basically an upper minors hitting prospect that gets a little love at the back end of top 100 prospect lists.
S_man_2014
That may still be too much for Hancock, depending on who the prospect is.
mlb fan
“Kirby or Gilbert”…crickets…Substitute Duran or Rafaela for Casas and a TOP prospect if you want to initiate anything other than a dial tone.
Salvi
1) Casas is a much better value than Rafaela. Its not even close.
2) And prospect was always intended to be a “TOP” prospect. I just didnt want to commit any names.
Casas and Mayer (3rd ranked prospect in baseball) should be plenty for Gilbert.
Salvi
Trade Simulator Value:
Casas and Mayer = 81.80
Kirby = 79.50
Vlad G = 10.5
People are ridiculous here.
James123
yep- people forget that what is traded is contracts (and rights to contracts) and not the player. Vlad is a better player than Casas, but there is a higher price tag on Vlad and a lot less years of control. Honestly i am not even sure if Vlad is all that much better than a healthy Casas.
myaccount2
The Trade Simulator is constantly bashed for being wildly inconsistent. No one follows it like gospel nor should they.
myaccount2
Dipoto has already came out and stated the M’s aren’t subtracting from their rotation.
mlb fan
“Dipoto has already come out”..Please don’t remind me. The truth is often very depressing.
A pitching trade is the most efficient way for the Mariners to solve their offensive woes.
myaccount2
I still don’t believe it’s the most efficient way. Gaining a 4 WAR offensive player at the expense of a 4 WAR pitcher isn’t efficient, it’s neutral. It makes us different but not better.
The best course of action, IMO, is to trade from our top 10 farm system or sign a guy so we aren’t negatively impacting the big league roster. It doesn’t seem like the latter will happen, so hopefully the former does.
James123
you also have to factor in the replacements. A 4 war pitcher that you can give the playing time to Hancock (if you think he is a 2 war starter) vs. a 4 war hitter you are bumping a below replacment level hitter out of the lineup. So it all depends.
Seamaholic
Heh. Kirby and Gilbert are among the most valuable assets in baseball.
Ferpad
I imagine any trade for either of those guys has to BEGIN with Jarren Duran….and more.
Salvi
1) Mariners dont need a CF
2) Casas and Mayer is plenty of value and it fills 2 needs SS and 1B.
myaccount2
You don’t settle for “plenty of value” when moving a controllable ace.
This is irrelevant anyway. Why would Dipoto say we aren’t subtracting from the rotation then turn around and trade from it?
Salvi
1) “no intention of dealing from the rotation” is what he said. Things change.
2) Every trade is based on value.
3) Since its simply about “control”. It would 3 years (Gilbert) of control for 9 years of control (Mayer 5 + Casas 4)
4) The two teams match up perfectly in a trade.
myaccount2
1) He called it Plan Z. That’s as good as saying it isn’t going to happen UNLESS they are absolutely blown away. Casas and Meyer should not blow them away. Duran+ might, so I’m with the other guys.
2) Whats your point? Obviously every trade is based on value. Teams don’t settle for “plenty of value” when moving an ace. They would need “lots of value.” Especially a competitive team.
3) Why is it simply about control? There are a ton of factors when a competing team trades one of its top players.
4) Relevant to the possibility of trade, irrelevant to whether they are able to line up and agree on value.
Bonus: the likelihood that another team is willing to give up what it would take to land Gilbert or Kirby makes “Plan Z” more like “Plan ZZ.” So not only is he not looking to do it, teams would have up come with an insane offer to make it happens. That’s as good as saying it’s simply not going to.
Can we please get a DH?
You are overvaluing Casas. He is a strong, but not elite 1B who grades out as one of the worst defenders in the league. I’m also not sure why the Red Sox would move him, unless they went and signed Pete Alonso (and if they do that they might as well just sign Snell, Burnes or Fried instead).
Additionally, Meyer doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Mariners who have several top IF prospects of their own already (Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Michael Arroyo, and Felnin Celestin) who are scheduled to debut in the next 2 to 3 years.
To be honest, I’m not sure Duran would move the needle much given our OF is our strength with Julio, Randy and Victor and none of them have as much value in the DH role (and Duran would lose value moving into a corner).
Salvi
1) If Im overvaluing Casas then youre undervaluing Mayer.
2) Every IF prospect you listed are Double A and below including Celestin who isnt even out of rookie ball. A Young/Mayer middle infield would be excellent.
3) Duran was never a fit. And a Duran and Mayer combo would be a
huge overpay.
myaccount2
1) If the M’s were rebuilding, I think Meyer would make a lot of sense in a package; however, in a hypothetical trade in which the M’s move a top 10 SP AND still want to compete, it would be a huge gamble. Given that he’s an unknown quantity at the big league level makes him less valuable to a contending team than, say, Miami. Value isn’t one-size-fits-all. Contending status, talent, contact, controllability, ballpark fit, clubhouse fit, etc. all carry weight. Duran would comfortably fill one of the nine lineup spots at an MVP-quality level for the M’s. Casas is not quite that. I like him a decent amount, but a 1B with questionable defense is not enough when packaged with a question mark for an ace, IMO.
2) I wasn’t the one to bring up the prospects so maybe you weren’t replying to me, but Cole Young will 100% debut this season.
3) GMs will make MVP-level players fit on any team with maybe the exception of the Dodgers or Phillies. The M’s wouldn’t deny the chance to add Duran just because he doesn’t have a clear spot. They would make it work. He could play RF given his arm, could be rotated through CF on Julio off days, and play some LF and DH.
On the surface, I don’t think Casas + Meyer for Kirby is a terrible suggestion, I just don’t think it makes sense as constructed given the state of the two teams. That’s why I doubt the M’s trade from their rotation. It’s too difficult to find something that makes sense for them while also making sense for a trade partner.
Can we please get a DH?
True the M’s IF prospects are likely not breaking camp in the Majors (although Young going straight from AA to MLB wouldn’t be abnormal for the M’s who don’t like their prospects to spend much time at AAA). However, the team has JP on a reasonable contract for two more years for SS, a decent 3B platoon in Rojas/Moore option for next year and several short term 2B options if needed to give Young a bit more time.
Mayer looks like a bright prospect, but holds much more value to Red Sox as their SS/2B for the next 6 years than to the Mariners.
It’s just not a fit for the M’s to trade from their staff generally. The drop off from the current rotation to Hancock is considerable. They’d be better off looking to package Hancock or Evans in a trade for a smaller bat or player with less team control (e.g. Josh Naylor or Yandy Diaz).
Can we please get a DH?
I agree with this take generally. However, to crystallize the issue with this general trade concept of Kirby/Gilbert to Red Sox is that Duran playing CF for Boston is more valuable than playing RF for Seattle where it pushes Arrozarena to DH (sure as a whole it strengthens Seattle’s lineup and OF defense, but the gain would be more than offset by the fall off with Hancock pitching). The same goes for Casas/Meyer. In the abstract it may be fair (although Casas as a solid hitting 1B/DH isn’t super valuable), but when applied to current and future rosters it doesn’t add-up. The M’s are likely to have a Raley led 1B platoon next year which pushes Casas to almost exclusively DH and although Meyer may be able to help 2B or 3B this year (although far from certain) it would come at the cost of crowding an already crowded prospect group (meaning the team likely then needs to go and make another trade).
hoof hearted
I would expect Cal and George to get about 4m, which is what Logan got in his 1st year of arb
James123
Cal may get more at a premium position and back to back great seasons. But yes, first time through 5-8m is basically the soft cap.
Mike56
Arenado is probably available from Cards. He’s a west coast guy. With Cards “reset”
He may jump at chance. Might get Goldy his buddy cheap too.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
Arenado whining his way out of St Louis will be an interesting storyline to follow this offseason
Seamaholic
Arenado makes $35m (Rockies contribution is down to the low single millions). Ain’t no way they’re going there. Might as well at that point add a few million and go after Soto. Arenado is a league average player now anyway and is basically untradeable. Betcha the M’s do look into Goldy though.
bloomquist4hof
Goldy is high on my list of 1B options I’d like to see them pursue.
bloomquist4hof
I’d love both of them on the team but don’t see it happening.
NYCityRiddler
Goldy already bought a new razor, is catching a shave & heading to the Bronx. Ahahaha!
Zippy the Pinhead
Trading bad contracts might be the way to go if there are no immediate takers on Arenado. Ford, Garver, and Hancock for Arenado and cash?
Oh, and ffs, move the fences in again.
Smokey the bear
I used to be a sucker and believed in ownership. NO MORE!!
NYCityRiddler
I’m glad you woke up & smelled the power steering fluid, now wake Jerry up & tell him he’s fired. Ahahaha!
Mikenmn
One game. I wonder what they could have done with, say, $7M to get that one game. I realize it’s not necessarily linear, but…
Fenway 1
They would be in if they won there precious 54 percent of games
Diggerydoo
This is what happens when you post “ANY” news without any refelcting
M’s said they would raise salary to meet arbitration, THE END…So why blow smoke with all of those walls of BS ?
YankeesBleacherCreature
The Seattle Times article indicates Dipoto doesn’t not plan on adding a big bat and they’ll make trades per usual.
“But our team is as sustainable as it gets, and with very few exceptions, it’s the same way in 2026.” – DiPoto
yukz
what they really need to do is hire a base running coach… They didn’t make this year’s playoffs because of dumb base running plays
kylek58
I feel like they say this every year and then don’t make any big signings
myaccount2
Well the article says payroll isn’t increasing for big signings, it’s increasing for arb raises. I wouldn’t expect more than a mid-tier move. The good news is we aren’t going to lose any of our top contributors. Hopefully we trade from the farm.
bloomquist4hof
Too many starts the likes of Raley, Rojas, Canzone, Bliss, Rivas, Locklear etc and they are probably not a playoff team even if those guys are all potentially fine even in some starting roles. The most they’ll likely get out of the minors is some spot starts or bullpen appearances from someone like Evans or Garcia and maybe a cup of coffee for Cole Young later in the season unless Locklear or Hancock steo forward. I’m sure they’ll dangle Ford due to Raleigh’s presence and players like Arroyo maybe but can’t see Dipoto getting to wheely and dealy with the farm. They need that farm to produce to be more than a couple year window with such low payrolls. I’m sure they won’t extend Polanco, look for ways to dump Haniger and Garver’s contracts and possibly ship Castillo off and trade Rojas to decrease payroll. Haniger and Garver will require them to attach value to dump so that’ll cost some of their trade capitol but and dumping Castillo creates a hole in the rotation. Without a sizable boost in payroll and willingness to part with prospects I think they run a team that is more likely to miss the playoffs than make it. I hope I’m wrong, Jerry is creative and there’s ways to do it.
BPax
DiPoto is eying Brandon Drury for a bounce back season.
Also trying Tommy LaStella one more time is possible.
He’s been in contact with Chone Figgins agent.
Nellie Cruz is interested.
He wonders if there’s some hits in Dustin Ackley’s bat still.
Justin Smoak is on line 2.
NYCityRiddler
I forgot about Justin Smoak, that’s funny! Ahahaha!
James123
I would love to see Montez for Kjerstad (Os). Almost makes too much sense IMO. Upside is higher in montes but we are talking about a 1-2 year wait, while Kjerstad gives them a middle of the lineup guy right now with 5-6 years of control (he has been up and down enough i am not sure where his service time currently is). Kjerstad has not real place in the Os lineup right now, so take the guy who will be ready when you need new cost controlled guys
Can we please get a DH?
1B: Raley will strong side a platoon. Potential in-house weak side options include Garver and Locklear. They could also look to resign Turner.
2B: Several angles available here. In FA, they could look to bring in either Torres or Kim. In trade, they could target Lowe, Hoerner or Donovan. Or they could look internal and give Bliss or Young a chance to run with it.
3B: Rojas/Moore is an underwhelming offensive platoon, but provides solid defense. If they could replace Rojas that would be worth targeting, but for the combined $8M they cost, it will be hard to find a better value for dollar (and I imagine the team is hoping that Colt Emerson can push to take 3B in 2026).
DH: Black hole. The team needs to address this. In FA, there are several high value targets: Santander, Alonso and Hernandez being the most appealing. Via trade, the team could look to acquire Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, or Brent Rooker.
Can we please get a DH?
Within budget, I could see the team decide to keep Rojas/Moore at 3B, trade Cole Young for Brandon Donovan to address 2B and trade Logan Evans for Josh Naylor.
Lineup:
1. Robles – LF
2. Rodríguez – CF
3. Naylor – DH/1B
4. Arrozarena – RF
5. Raley/Locklear – 1B/DH
6. Raleigh – C
7. Crawford – SS
8. Donovan – 2B
9. Rojas/Moore – 3B
Bench – Garver (C), Canzone (OF)
Stevil
The sales pitch we heard for the ‘step back’ was that money saved would be paid forward. We’ve heard it again and again when needs were clear and free agency had answers, but saw the exact opposite happen every time.
This could be the tale of the Little Billionaire Owner Who Cried Wolf. I’ll believe it when I see it.
That said, they absolutely should be pushing in their chips. Their window is open and limited with this core in place.