Logan Gilbert is coming off his best season yet, posting a 3.23 ERA and outstanding strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-leading 208 2/3 innings. The former 14th overall pick has lived up to the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and while he has cemented his place in the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t yet a lock for the team’s future plans. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that “there has been little discussion about a long-term deal” between the two sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”
There are several reasons why the lack of talks shouldn’t raise an alarm for M’s fans. Gilbert is only entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he is under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player. Gilbert and the Mariners avoided a hearing last winter by agreeing to a $4.05MM salary for 2024, and the right-hander’s big performance this year has put him in line for a projected $8.1MM salary in 2025.
Those numbers will keep rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert keeps pitching well in his remaining arb years, but that would still represent a relative bargain for the Mariners to have ace-level production in their rotation. Signing Gilbert to an extension prior to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty through the rest of his arbitration years and beyond, and such a deal might still end up being a bargain since Gilbert might just be getting better.
The 2024 season saw Gilbert post a career-best 27.4% strikeout rate and 31.7% whiff rate, in addition to his usual excellent control. His 39.3% hard-hit ball rate was also the best of his four Major League seasons, and while this only ranked in the 44th percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had never topped the 11th percentile in any of his prior three years.
As a whole, Seattle’s rotation is not only perhaps the best in baseball but also the most cost-effective. Luis Castillo has the big contract of the bunch in the form of the five-year, $108MM extension he signed in September 2022, but Gilbert is entering his second arb year, George Kirby is projected for $5.5MM in his first arb year, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are still in their pre-arbitration years. Former sixth overall pick Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much over his 72 2/3 career MLB innings, but he is another promising young arm that would’ve gotten a longer look in pretty much any rotation that didn’t have such quality and durability.
This abundance of pitching talent is great for the Mariners in many ways, including the level of flexibility it gives the team in approaching extension talks. With a nod to the “you can never have enough pitching” credo, the M’s don’t necessarily need to lock up Gilbert as soon as possible since so many other talented hurlers are on hand. All of the remaining team control for the non-Castillo pitchers gives the Mariners extra time to weigh their options about which of the younger arms (if any) can be long-term cornerstones. For instance, if the M’s have already seen enough from Miller or Woo, signing either to an extension earlier in their careers would come at a lower cost than an extension for Gilbert.
If any of these starters aren’t really in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a trade is always possible, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the idea that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, though Dipoto’s stance could soften if another team makes a strong enough offer. Specifically, if that offer contains a comparatively talented young hitter with extra years of team control, moving a starter for this hitter would help a Seattle club in sore need of offensive help.
This isn’t to say that Gilbert would necessarily be the pitcher traded, escalating salary notwithstanding. One NL scout told Jude that “if they have to trade someone, Miller would make the most sense,” though the scout also felt “it would be ridiculous for them to trade any of their starters.” As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic home/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that other teams may be wary that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. Castillo is the least-likely trade candidate, according to one source, due to his larger contract and the fact that he’s entering his age-32 season.
Champ world champion Texas Rangers
Adolis for Gilbert lol. That would be wild and never happen but if Randy has a say it would.
redsox for_life
Duran, Yoshida plus 15millions for Gilbert or Kurby or Woo or Miller;)
Blackpink in the area
A deal involving Castillo and Yoshida is what makes sense.
Blackpink in the area
Unlike many of the other Mariners starters Gilbert doesn’t have big home road splits.
zoinksscoob
I think there’s an important point being left out here. It could very well be that Gilbert himself is not that interested in pursuing an extension at this time. He may be waiting for the team to actually invest in the offense before deciding to make Seattle his “forever home”. Given how ownership and the front office haven’t come up with a viable plan for the hitters, I know I wouldn’t want to go the Felix Hernandez route and have losing records year after year despite pitching well (which probably killed King Felix’s HOF chances.) I think the same can be said of Raleigh and Kirby at this point. I wouldn’t be in a rush to sign long-term with a team where the reputations up top are toward the bottom of the league. The money is there; the owners just don’t want to spend it. I would expect those three players to all be traded within the next 2-3 years after the M’s miss the playoffs again and again, barring a complete change of course by ownership.
Stevil
I’ve said as much myself, but I think they could feasibly start selling after next season.
I don’t want to see that, but they haven’t chosen, or revealed, a new direction. We only know they changed course.
This one belongs to the Reds
Surely you can’t be serious?
No, I didn’t call him Shirley.
chrisjaybecker
The White Zone is for loading and unloading only…
ClevelandSteelEngines
Mariners know who they can pay and understand they can’t pay everyone. Gilbert is there now, don’t get too bogged down by a future beyond next three seasons.
Samuel
ClevelandSteelEngines;
Jerry is known as a trader.
But traders in he stock market have one rule they never lose sight of:
“Don’t fall in love with any of your stocks”.
If Jerry were a smart trader he’d be looking to sell high RIGHT NOW on one of his starters. It seems like he’s scared. Might figure the one he moves will go onto greatness and one or two of the other ones he has will regress – opening him up for criticism….or something. As I wrote under anther article: If his staffs so good at developing pitchers, what’s the problem with trading one in a package to get a couple of position players that can hit? Truth be told, the park makes his pitchers appear better than they are….and it hurts Mariners hitters.
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This love of players extends to J-Rod. He couldn’t wait to lock him into a long-term contract. Sorry, but while the young man is a fine defender with loads of natural talent, unfortunately he’s closer to Jarred Kelenic than he is to Junior.
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Jerry is poor at 2 things: 1) realistically evaluating talent; and 2) developing it.
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Go talk about WAR and how the owners don’t spend more money on player salaries. Hope you all feel better.
mlb1225
Impressive how the Mariners have been able to develop so many pitchers that not only can throw relatively hard, but with such good control. Their starters had a combined 4.9% walk rate, the 11th lowest rate in baseball history since walks started to be tracked, and they did it while striking out 23.6% of opponents.
Fireballs
Trade bait. The Red Sox would love him. Casas as a starting point.
redsox for_life
Casas plus Yoshida and 15m for Gilbert
Stevil
Ye Gods…
Can we please get a DH?
Mariners don’t want two DHs for Gilbert. You’d need to keep Yoshida out of the deal and add in someone like Mayer to peak their interest.
Stevil
Seattle isn’t trading their ace this offseason for anyone—especially not a first baseman and/or DH, and an infield prospect that’s a good year out wouldn’t change that
Can we please get a DH?
I agree which is why I just said peak their interest, not get a deal done.
Mayer is not a year out. He was promoted to AAA, but then due to injury wasn’t able to play. He, more likely than not, is in the majors by the All Star break. He is also not just an ‘infield prospect’, but a top 15 prospect in the minors. Not that I would want to see the Mariners trade an All Star pitcher for a 1B and star prospect.
McGrundle
If I were him, or any decent player, I’d want out of Seattle as quickly as the market allows.
chrisjaybecker
Remember when the A’s had their much heralded “Three Aces” in Hudson, Mulder, and Zito? We’re very close to having FIVE legitimate Aces. But then, in the Old West when someone drew a fifth Ace… somebody got shot. But I digress..
Monkey’s Uncle
Have they had “un-serious” talks? Facetious talks?
deepseamonster32
Would like to keep our 5 starters. The first extension I’d do is give Bryan Woo a 15-year contract. The rest can wait.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Why woo? He gets injured and can’t throw a ton of pitches
The best guy to give an extension to is either Kirby or Gilbert
Stevil
Since the beginning of July, Miller only had one bad road start, and one short, but not terrible, start. The other five starts on the road in that same stretch were quality starts.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
They won’t trade anyone because no team will give them the huge offer they would take
Musical chairs are only allowed to happen on offense not pitching!
CCDD
Mariners need to seriously consider trading Castillo for a true clean-up rbi machine with high average and some power like 20 homers a season, someone like Edgar Martinez in his prime. Castillo is expendable, but still in his prime and should get a lot of interests from top teams, such as Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, .. etc.. Mariners certainly can use balance of his big salary to pay for un-coming guys like Logan, Kirby and Raleigh. Next, Mariners really need to get its bullpen up to the top level again with at least 2 high caliber lefties. Bullpen was a major reason why Mariners didn’t get into playoffs 2 years in a row.
Can we please get a DH?
I’d love to see long term deals reached for Gilbert and Kirby, but the team should feel no pressure to trade them if extension negotiations aren’t going well given they have 3 and 4 years of control left.
If the team fails again next year, then there will be more pressure on if they keep Castillo (whose NTC will expire) or Gilbert who will be entering his final two years of arbitration.
muskie73
That “Seattle club in sore need of offensive help” posted a team wRC+ of 104 this season, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15. The resurgence was fueled by the additions of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles, who are expected to flank Julio Rodriguez in the Seattle outfield next season.
Every team would welcome better hitting but the Mariners are not starting at the bottom of the barrel.