After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.
“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”
Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.
Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.
If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.
Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasize San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.
CenterWingPolitics
The Padres long term contract situation is actually quite terrible. Bogaerts looks like a failure of a deal and they have what 8 more years!? Darvish is extended for a while longer and same for Machado. Last thing they need to do is sign another aging player to an extended deal.
hiflew
What players aren’t aging? For that matter, what human beings aren’t aging?
Informed Sportsball Discussion
Darvish just handled the best offense in the National League in the playoffs twice. Manny was back to team MVP caliber numbers once his shoulder healed in June.
The Bogaerts contract looks bad. So? The team plays him, hopes he turns it around and otherwise stops worrying about it. What’s done is done.
The Padres are going to need to continue to draft and scout well to be successful. Even Preller’s critics have to admit him and his team do that well. They’ll be fine.
Simm
Xander and manny both have 9 years left on their deals. Plus tatis has I believe 11 more years left. They also have cronenworth who has a bunch of years left.
Peter Seidler was fully committed to a large payroll going forward. The question that we will see answered this offseason is how committed the ownership group is without Peter.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@Simm It looks like they are committed at best to not breaking the luxury tax anymore, at worst having a “real” payroll of $160 million ish. Middle of the league type numbers.
If that is true, they may want to consider how badly they want King and Cease around for 2025. It might be time to cash one of them in for more pitching depth. You’re not going to re-sign both of them, and even one of them might pose a challenge.
Knowing Preller, he figures it out as best as possible for 2025 with riding everyone’s last year out, and keeps counting on his drafts and scouting for post-2025.
At least Hosmer’s money comes off the books after next season.
Simm
Kings arb number isn’t too bad because it was held down previous years.
I do think they may trade Cease. The issue with that is they already need starting pitching next year with Musgrove being out. Plus who knows what they can actually get back for one year of cease.
The padres as is being projected to have a payroll of 207m would mean they would have to unload a number of guys to get anywhere near 160m. Though I expect it to be above that number and closer to 200m if not more.
Samuel
“Xander and manny both have 9 years left on their deals. Plus tatis has I believe 11 more years left. They also have cronenworth who has a bunch of years left.”
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Simm;
I asked under another story: “How many teams will have the same manager for the next 10 years? The same FO Baseball heads? Even the same ownership group?”
–
Your posts are coming off like those of Cardinals fans when people like me were talking about the long-term contracts they took on with Goldschmidt and Arenado.
Simm
Not sure how that is relevant but most teams will not have the same manager or front office 10 years from now.
I was just listing how long some of these deals were.
Both Xander and cronenworth’s extension look bad as of now and likely only to get worse.
Gwynning
I beg to differ and opine that Cronie’s contract is fine. The only real albatross is Xander, and even that is manageable at worst.
rct
@Gwynning: I agree about Cronenworth. His play might not be up to what was expected of him when he signed (just 3.0 WAR the last two seasons) but his deal is $12-13 million a year. Not good if he continues this lower level of production but hardly an albatross.
amk1920
Cronenworth is a mediocre hitting 1B/DH who was under contract for 2 more years without an extension. Would have been fine to let it play out. Instead they lined up a declining player until he is 36. That contract is awful
I Believe We Can Win
11 mill is right around the going price for a utility player that can play multiple positions including 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, possibly CF in an emergency and offers above average offense.
Kike Hernandez got 10 mill from the Red Sox. Marwin Gonzalez got 10.5 from the twins back in the day. Chris Taylor got 15 mill a year from the dodgers. Tommy Edman got 9.5 mill from the Cardinals.
amk1920
Hernandez can actually play those positions. CT3 and Marwin contracted aged horribly. But hey if 12 million a year for a mediocre hitting corner infielder is your cup of tea go for it
I Believe We Can Win
So can cronenworth. He played 2B before 1B. He’s also been put at ss and 3b and in the OF.
But hey. Facts have never been your thing. Why start now.
Simm
Cronenworth has barely played ss in years. I don’t think he has played 3rd at all as a pro if so nearly never. He has never plays the outfield.
He basically a 2b/1b player. Not saying he couldn’t play those other positions in a pinch but he really never does.
amk1920
He can play below average 2B defense if they need it. He has played 1 game at 3B and that was in 2020. He has never played the outfield. Beyond that it is hilarious to think he can play the outfield or adequate SS in the majors. Padres fans are down bad trying to justify locking him up until the 2029 season. He is just one of many on the bad contract pile for them so he does fly under the radar. Hey there is always the 2022 hit off Vesia.
I Believe We Can Win
He played around the diamond back in 2020 and 2021. Of in 2021. It was during Tatis Jr suspension cronenworth and Frazier saw time in the OF.
Simm
Tatis was suspended in 2022, Frazier wasn’t even on the team.
I Believe We Can Win
Well that’s one way to admit you were wrong and 11 mill is the going rate for a super utility player.
Why even comment if you’re just going to prove yourself wrong with your responses?
I Believe We Can Win
Bogaerts first year his posted 4.4 war while playing thru a wrist injury
Idk if he ever got it corrected over the off season but he was obviously dealing with some injury first half before his should injury
Bogaerts came back and in 61 games in the second half posted .292/.333/.429
Long as he’s healthy he’s easily capable of 2-3 war.
Thats hardly a failure of a deal. Not the best deal ever but certainly not the worst if he’s productive when healthy.
Simm
It’s not so much what he has down the last two years. It’s the next 9 years. When they signed him to that deal you are hoping to get very very good years the first 4-5 seasons aka Xander Red Sox last year.
Now that you have received okay production the first two years means the last 5 years or so are looking rough.
letitbelowenstein
Bogaerts, Darvish, Tatis and Machado. They’re on the cuff for a spit-ton of money already. And only Darvish (who’s injury-prone) didn’t see his production drop off in 2024. Machado’s 32 now and, along with a poor attitude and frequent lack of hustle, has slowly been dropping stat-wise. Tatis is a documented cheater. I’d 86 the long-term stuff for awhile and focus on 2-3 year deals if they could.
I Believe We Can Win
Documented cheater because he used an over the counter ointment in his native Dominican Republic for ring worm that contained a banned substance called clostebol by the mlb but is a known ingredient in medication to treat ringworm in different countries? USA and Canada don’t put steroids in ringworm medication. Other countries are known to put steroids in ringworm medication.
You do realize drug laws are different by country right? That in some countries you’ll find drugs available at a 711 that the USA says you need prescription for. Drug laws differ between countries.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@letitbelowenstein
The same Manny Machado who gets blasted for making legal slides taking out a fielder (another one happened this season, totally legal, even had players on Twitter confirming it), made his own running lane (again legal) in NLDS Game 2 causing Freeman to blow the throw, whose stats improved in 2024 compared to 2023, and showed his leadership in bringing the team together in a hostile environment?
Also, Darvish is still an ace when healthy. He just proved that unequivocally.
Tatis would have improved on his 2023 numbers in 2024 if he hadn’t missed 2 and a half months. Only knock on him anymore is he needs to stay healthy. It’s only people like you who can’t accept he served his punishment and move on, for whatever reason. I hope your sins are similarly never forgiven.
Garbage comment and not even accurate.
bbatardo
Bogaerts is the obvious poor contract, but even with missing several months, Darvish has been worth the money.
Not sure if Arraez would take it, but multiple years with an AAV of 10M seems pretty fair. Could even give him a no trade clause as a sweetener.
Card AG
He’s 27
Travis’ Wood
Would be a terrible decision by San Diego. One more year of Arraez is plenty. He will fall off quick as he ages, very limited skillset and already not super valuable
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Why would he fall off?
Travis’ Wood
Because he has one of the most limited skillsets in the league, he’s not athletic, and has zero power. He’s also not even that good now. Any drop in production and he’s no longer a major league caliber player
Simm
I don’t think his production will drop off anytime soon.
He is already not a good fielder or a good runner. He also has no power. Those are the things that usually drop off first. He has the shortest swing in baseball and his ability to make contact should be sustainable for awhile.
The issue is what is his skill set worth. His war says not that much.
chiefnocahoma1
These contact only guys can stick for a long time if they are fast, play excellent defense, or both. He provides neither.
Travis’ Wood
Hand eye coordination and bat speed absolutely do drop off. Batting average goes down as people age…. With one of the slowest bat speeds already, Arraez is in danger of becoming completely obsolete within a few short years
Travis’ Wood
Ummm which contact guys have stayed around a long time? Ichiro? That’s about it lol
stymeedone
He is one of the best hitters in the league and is solidly a major league caliber player. He’s just not a fantasy league caliber player. Please don’t confuse the two.
robw5555
He can fit for certain teams. If you have big bats behind him. He is alow and his defense is way below average. If he was average at second base, there would be more demand for him. Three batting titles , yet as a free agent how many teams would be chasing him? If you use him at DH , he takes up a spot usually reservered for power bats? Even at first base, he is really bad. For people into stats he is 1.1 in 2024. I know he is looking for bucks ASAP. He doesnt even want to go to free agency. If he wont a 4th title, does his value grow?
stymeedone
@travis wood
You’re young or have a short memory. Pete Rose? Rod Carew, Placido Polanco, Ken Griffey Sr, Willie Randolph, Tito Fuentes, Jeff McNeil, Stephen Kwan, Ralph Garr, Mickey Rivers.
Travis’ Wood
LOL. So players who are completely irrelevant to modern day baseball. Got it. That’s hilarious you’re bringing up dudes from the 70s. Stephen Kwan?? Ummm he’s 27 years old…. And mcNeil looks like a massive overpay. You might wanna delete that comment lol
rct
“I don’t think his production will drop off anytime soon.”
imo, it already is. Career OPS+ of 118, had 106 this year. Career worst OBP and his walk rate has been dropping every year since 2021, when it was 9% (now a paltry 3.6%). Lowest EV (86.1) of his career, nearly 2 mph slower than his previous combined three seasons. And his poor defense has gotten worse, to the point where he’s only playable at 1B or DH. A long term deal with Arraez would be a bad idea. There’s a reason Minnesota and Florida were so willing to trade him.
rct
@stymeedone: “He is one of the best hitters in the league”
No, he isn’t. He had the same OPS+ (106) as Mike Tauchmann.
Simm
He was also playing most of the season with a torn ligament on his thumb. If you watch him play nearly every at swing he was grimacing from the pain.
Even says in this article he may need surgery to repair it. So I wouldn’t put too much stock into his numbers declining last year. Will see what he does next year.
rct
@Travis’ Wood: “And mcNeil looks like a massive overpay.”
Agree with everything you’re saying except this. He only has two years and ~$33 million left (includes the $2 million buyout). Accumulated 4 WAR so far over the first two years of the deal. Great? No. But far from a massive overpay. Plus he was on fire in the second half (.923 OPS) prior to his injury. The kicker there is that his resurrection coincided with changing is approach and *not* being a slap hitter anymore, but trying to hit it hard and drive it.
I’m rambling but I think the Mets are fine with the McNeil deal.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
It’s only a terrible decision if they overpay.
Sign 27 year old Arraez to 3 years at $10-12 million a year? That would be fine.
Travis’ Wood
Simply no reason to do that. Ride out the year you have left and then find someone else. No need to lock in a sub 2 WAR player for the next 3 years
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@Travis Wood
I guess this is the one time I am not a WAR guy.
Two years with an option year, to save money on what they would otherwise pay in arbitration for this year. Should be eminently doable if Arraez’s market is going to be as cool as this post’s thread thinks it is. (Yes, I realize other teams can’t negotiate with Arraez unless they non-tender him.)
Preller never takes his guys to arbitration. This might be the first time. It really depends on how hard their payroll ceiling is.
Travis’ Wood
Sure, if he’s willing to take a team friendly extension because he recognizes that he has zero market. I could see that
YankeesBleacherCreature
If he’s projected to make $14.5MM via arb, there’s no way he’ll accept a $12MM AAV unless it’s a long extension through his mid-30s. Once his bat speed slips a little, it’s tough to see him bring any value to a team.
robw5555
10-12 a yr? He is not taking small money like that. The guy can get (estimated) 14-15 in arbitration. Bogarts makes 25 a yr signed to 2033 (age 40) and you think at age 27 Arraez will take 10-12? There are total scrubs making that kind of money.
Travis’ Wood
Nobody is willingly paying a scrub 10-12 mil lol
Informed Sportsball Discussion
@robw5555 If it gets him multiple years.
This thread thinks Arraez is a total scrub, and the MLB clubs may yet agree. Arraez would be foolish to turn down multiple years, if offered. He’s not going to make $15 million in one year again, not without adding another tool in his arsenal beyond batting average.
The Bogaerts overpay (a colossal one as stands) is not relevant to this discussion.
FanDan
That is an overpay.
bbatardo
4 years at around 40M would be a reasonable offer without hurting the team.
CaseyAbell
Gotta admit, I was a little surprised that bWAR and fWAR both pegged Arraez as barely above replacement level in 2024, I thought he was overrated because of what Bill James used to call the “batting average illusion,” but I didn’t think he was that bad. An arbitration raise to $14 million is onerous enough for the Padres, but a long-term extension? Not such a great idea.
Travis’ Wood
Most overrated player in baseball and it’s not particularly close
I Believe We Can Win
You spelled Jazz Chisholm Jr wrong
Travis’ Wood
Chisholm is way better than Arraez lol
I Believe We Can Win
Not even close. Dude is vastly overrated.
Arraez is arraez.
But chisholms always been overrated
Informed Sportsball Discussion
Even WAR had Arraez at 2.7 and 3.3 in 2022 and 2023. You could chalk up his 1.1 WAR this year to the bad thumb.
Still not worth $14 million. I can’t argue with that. Worth an extension based on what the team thinks his batting average can do for them? Worth it.
Samuel
CaseyAbell;
WAR is for rotisserie league along with salary negotiations and arbitration.
It does not corollate to wins.
Depends what a persons priorities are.
robw5555
Watching hi on the Marlins we were excitied about a guy to root for. But then you see the bigger picture. He would be worth more if more power-even 20 Hr power, more speed (ability to get 35-45 doubles, More walks, and average fielding at the least. He would only need one of those. He tried to get the Marlins to go for a big deal at the end of 2023. They have no money and are cheap. But what did Arraez ask? I think he wanted many yrs. Is is not taking small money, and not going for a short deal. I have a feeling he is talkign abotu some crazy 10 yr deal like most.
wallabeechamp
AJ is not only going to extend Arraez with an overpay, he’s going to offer a QO to Profar too!
Whole bunch of faithful will love it. lol
Simm
I think neither of those things are going to happen.
If the padres are committed to a payroll closer to 2024 vs 2023 then there really isn’t any space to do either of those moves.
257m 2023, 169m 2024 and are currently projected with the team they have to be at 207m in 2025. That’s basically right in the middle of 23’-24’.
Preller will need to be very creative again this offseason.
Informed Sportsball Discussion
I don’t see a QO to Profar. The team can’t afford it.
Travis’ Wood
Should be fired if he QOs Profar
myaccount2
I want him to hit free agency just because I’m very curious how he would be valued on the open market. I wouldn’t pay him a ton and I could see the league agreeing, but it only takes one team.
Simm
Yeah I agree. I really have no idea what he is worth. His one skill set is hitting singles.
If the dude would stop swinging at balls his walk rate would be much higher. Therefore so would his obp, making him very valuable even with his other shortcomings.
Travis’ Wood
Yeah he has way too many wasted at bats, he needs a much higher OBP to be a good player
robw5555
When the Marlins moved him, I thoguht this guy would be great fr the Yankees. Gets on base, then big sluggers drive him in. But he does have a very lowe OBP and zero speed.
FanDan
Trade him. A 1.1 WAR DH can be improved upon.
LFGMets (Metsin7) #BannedForBeingABaseballExpert
Arraez is extremely underated. People act like winning a battle title is meaningless. Hes won it 3 times in a row, best average hitter out of all the best players in the world. War undervalues him just like how it does Salvy Perez. 3 years ago, Myles Straw had a WAR of 3 while batting around .240 with zero homeruns. Arraez had a BA of .350 with 10hrs and barely scraped by to a 3 WAR. Awful stat
Blackpink in the area
He does nothing else except hit for average. He has no power. He isn’t fast. He can’t play defense. He’s got one exceptional skill but his weaknesses in other areas are why his WAR is so low.
robw5555
He is definitely a rare t situation in MLB as far as his value. One thing I believe, he wants a long deal with nice money. Would he be a guy teams would fight for in free agency. I really doubt it. The guy can win a 4th batting title in 2025 and his value remains the same.
Simm
War definitely doesn’t like Arraez. Which is why it makes valuing him so hard.
amk1920
A batting title is meaningless if you are a DH/mediocre 1B with no power. All he does is hit lame ducks all over the field. He barley won the batting title over Ohtani while sitting out the last few games of the year. He is not the best of anything
Simm
Just for the record he sat out one game the last weekend of the season. He didn’t hide from anything like you suggested. He has an injury he was playing with and the padres didn’t want him playing at all those last few games but he wanted to.
KingZeke8
When he learns to take pitches and try not to get a hit every time, he’ll be dangerous as hell
hiflew
I know what you meant, but it is just weird to see someone say it is better to take a pitch than to try and get a hit.
Drasco0366
I don’t think a lot of teams will be looking/willing to lock up DH for a guy like Arraez for multiple years.
JayRyder
Uh yes please, give me 14 years at 300 million dollars too !!!
hiflew
He is great simply because he puts the ball in play. I am not saying this as some mathematician that would rather look at a spreadsheet than watch a baseball game. I am saying this as a fan that is so damn tired of seeing nothing but walks and strikeouts in games. I don’t watch games to see pitches looked at. I watch to see pitches hit and put in play regardless of their outcome. That entertains me and entertaining the fans should be the goal of every MLB team. Because without the fans, those trophies are meaningless.
stymeedone
When asked, (insert player’s name here) stated that of course he would be happy to sign for more money with his current team, especially if it would provide a long term guarantee of massive wealth, regardless of performance.
LordD99
Maybe a 4/48.
TerryTurnbuckle
He’s the Venezuelan Ichiro. Lock him up long term before someone else does. He’s just coming into his prime at 27. People don’t know generational talent anymore.
Ski to Coors
Ichiro was a no doubt, first ballot Hall of Famer. Arraez belongs to the hall of irrelevant in 10 years.
Dock_Elvis
I can spot trolls now, though. He’s not even the Venezuelan Ozzie Guillen.
Bozzmania
Wouldn’t be surprised if traded and possibly non-tendered the Pads have other needs than paying him 14 mill. Just not enough production
99socalfrc
Shocking how many people miss the point of a possible extension. Arraez is due $14m via arbitration in 2025. If he is willing to forego that for a longer deal both sides could win. I like Arraez but I think $14m for one season of him is a stretch. He makes contact like noone else but he needs to improve his walk numbers in order to really get the most from his game.
The Padres have several of these middle of the road ability type guys, I think they need to be open to keeping Profar, Kim & Arraez but ultimately go with whoever is the most reasonable about the $$$. Profar had a good year, but realistically he will not repeat it (he was already falling off late season). Arraez is amazing to watch every day, but in the end he is like a 109OPS+ guy. Kim is solid but might have peaked in 2023 and now the surgery. Getting above $10m annually for any of those three is risky IMO
Ski to Coors
Getting lots of singles with no power or defense just isn’t that valuable in today’s game. Luis entered the league 20 years too late.