After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.
“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”
Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.
Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.
If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.
Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasized San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.
The Padres long term contract situation is actually quite terrible. Bogaerts looks like a failure of a deal and they have what 8 more years!? Darvish is extended for a while longer and same for Machado. Last thing they need to do is sign another aging player to an extended deal.
What players aren’t aging? For that matter, what human beings aren’t aging?
Paul Rudd.
True statement.
Darvish just handled the best offense in the National League in the playoffs twice. Manny was back to team MVP caliber numbers once his shoulder healed in June.
The Bogaerts contract looks bad. So? The team plays him, hopes he turns it around and otherwise stops worrying about it. What’s done is done.
The Padres are going to need to continue to draft and scout well to be successful. Even Preller’s critics have to admit him and his team do that well. They’ll be fine.
One thing you have to say about Preller is he always has his farm stocked. Part of the reason he is in on practically every player. Lovr him or hate him he always keeps the Madres interesting. Nothing static.
Love
One thing you have to say about Preller is he always has his farm stocked.
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I’ve seen plenty of stocked farms over the years, but never one as consistently as what Preller does.
Xander and manny both have 9 years left on their deals. Plus tatis has I believe 11 more years left. They also have cronenworth who has a bunch of years left.
Peter Seidler was fully committed to a large payroll going forward. The question that we will see answered this offseason is how committed the ownership group is without Peter.
@Simm It looks like they are committed at best to not breaking the luxury tax anymore, at worst having a “real” payroll of $160 million ish. Middle of the league type numbers.
If that is true, they may want to consider how badly they want King and Cease around for 2025. It might be time to cash one of them in for more pitching depth. You’re not going to re-sign both of them, and even one of them might pose a challenge.
Knowing Preller, he figures it out as best as possible for 2025 with riding everyone’s last year out, and keeps counting on his drafts and scouting for post-2025.
At least Hosmer’s money comes off the books after next season.
Kings arb number isn’t too bad because it was held down previous years.
I do think they may trade Cease. The issue with that is they already need starting pitching next year with Musgrove being out. Plus who knows what they can actually get back for one year of cease.
The padres as is being projected to have a payroll of 207m would mean they would have to unload a number of guys to get anywhere near 160m. Though I expect it to be above that number and closer to 200m if not more.
@informed. So glad to see that Hosmer $ off the books! But can you refer me to a reliable source claiming the team is committed to staying under the CBT tax every year?
Brew- still one year left on hosmers money.
As far as spending the only info so far about padres payroll for next year was in Kevin Acee article. He didn’t say they want to be under the tax again next year. Just that the team is committed to being closer to this years payroll then the 2023 payroll.
May not leave much room for signing guys with their current payroll projected to be at 207m next year.
We shall see as there was an article earlier this month from the padres saying they are in a good financial situation going forward. Time will tell.
@Brew88
I cannot. That is my supposition. The team has made no form pronouncement on that, nor do they typically comment on their luxury tax stance. The last time I heard Erik Greupner interview prior to the 2024 season, he firmly said they won’t comment on luxury tax strategy.
I would love to be wrong.
The team has said that they need to promote more talent from the minor leagues going forward. Extrapolating from that.
@Simm
I said Hosmer’s money comes off the books after next season. After 2025.
Peter’s wife Sheel, said that even though they were disappointed with the result this year, their intent was to fulfill Peter’s dream of a parade, meaning WS win, in San Diego. She is the owner now and it didn’t sound like cutting or limiting payroll was a consideration. Eric Kutsenda said earlier this season that they were not worried about exceeding the CBT threshold in 2025 for the right player or players. That having ducked, his word, under in 2024 that they have no set payroll for 2025.
As of today, the Padres have $193.85 million on the books including all the arbitration raises if Kim opts out and Wandy Peralta opts in. That leaves them $47 million under the CBT threshold.
They have Profar, Solano. Higashioka, and Scott to possibly bring back. I am assuming the Padres allow Martin Perez, David Peralta, Nick Ahmed, and Elias Diaz to walk.
Preller is one of the best in the league and I am quite sure that he will figure out how to make additions like Arraez that actually lowered the team’s payroll for 2025.
If the projections from actual sportswriters, not Acee, for the 27-year-old Arraez demands for an extension are real then they could lower payroll by $4.6 million in 2025 by extending him.
While I was really disappointed at the collapse of the hitting, I trust in Preller to make sure that the Padres have a solid team on the field that can contend in 2025.
Padres payroll after signing all the arb eligible players to the projected raises, Kim opting out, and Wandy Peralta opting in is $193.85 million.
Those numbers are bot close to what Fangraphs says. Which site are you getting them from?
You did.
Cots = $186.3M
MLB-R arb = .46.7
So the Padres are in for $233M without Kim, but with Peralta. And arb list looks solid with no one to non-tender. So the Padres have $8M to spend.
But, FWIW, putting Preller on a budget last year yielded his best work to date. I’d place him maybe #5 in GM of the year category.
dammn you Simm with your facts 🙂
Cease choked in the playoffs. I would keep King in a heartbeat over Cease.
dammn you Simm with your facts
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I find the discussions more interesting when folks start with a good database. Already we see that SD cannot make a move without busting the first cap.
There is no doubt in my mind that they are competitive without even a single move, but they’d be hard-put to stay under the cap, if that’s what ownership wants.
Still, a l/t contract for Arraez might be cheaper than the $14 in arb, and Preller isn’t shy about trade prospects, and SD still has some good ones.
dammn you Simm with your facts
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Cots was nice enough to update their schedule. They have SD already being over the cap for 2025 at $242.9M (with Arraez, but without Kim).
Preller will likely make some more trades. Think the only ones he will keep off the table are Salas and DeVries. Everyone else is probably on the table.
What will be interesting to watch is if he tries to move anyone on the current roster. Of all them I think Cease is the most likely and he isn’t very likely. That will largely depend on if he has to free up some money.
Musgrove being out all of next season really hurts. Otherwise they wouldn’t really need to spend much.
And without a SS, LF, the C is Campusano, Waldron and Vasquez are two of your starters and a AAA bench. I suspect changes are a comin.
They will likely use Xander at shortstop.
They can get serviceable catcher for cheap enough. LF and starting pitching are the two biggest concerns atm.
Heck the left fielder maybe David Peralta who played well for them a year ago.
Tirso wi get a shot at LF in ST. Finally developed his bat in AAA last year. If they don’t resign JP.
Yeah that’s possible, was surprised a little he didn’t get a look this season. Makes me wonder if there is something about his game the padres don’t like.
I think he started slow and then JP was way hot and then Peralta signing and then Nando came back from IL.
I plan to be in Peoria the first week of March thinking I’ll see him in camp getting some AB’s.
I’m looking forward to seeing what Reynolds can do next year. Seems like a late bloomin’ breakout. Heard on a talk show that Pads might re-think Morejon as a SP, since they need a lefty there – but I doubt it since they’re losing Scott as L in pen.
This biggest issue with morejon as a starter is his injury history. Think that would be asking a lot.
Think Reynolds could be a dark horse for getting stretched out?
Morejon def stays in pen if Peralta opts out. Maybe a stretch out candidate if Cosgrove rebounds and Peralta stays and if Matsui develops.
That is actual salaries, not CBT payroll which includes money not on the major league payroll like $17 million to benefits and $1.66 on the MLB 0-3 year bonuses.
Pretty much only look at Fangraphs for stats, not salaries.
Which is CBT payroll, not actual salaries.
With the buyout for Kim and with Wandy Peralta opting in.
Bogaerts is the shortstop. If Profar doesn’t return, and there is a 90+% chance he does, the Padres have Ornelas on the 40 man. Campusano is one of 2 of the Padres catchers no matter what and backup catchers like Higgy are cheap. Waldron and Vasquez were starters at the back of the rotation in 2024, making 46 starts.
I think a dark horse for making the Padres staff in 2025 is Henry Baez. Maybe not out of camp, but when injuries hit.
I think Omar Cruz has a good shot at getting stretched back out to start for El Paso to be available if needed.
Ryan Bergert was on pace to be part of the 2025 rotation prior to an injury in June that cost him a month in 2024 with the Missions. After returning from the IL, he put up a 2.89 ERA as a starter in his final 10 starts. I would not at all be surprised to see him return to form and a clear path to the majors.
There is always Johnny Brito, who was thought of as a possible starter when the Padres asked for him in the Soto trade and who made 6 starts in El Paso after Peralta returned from his injury. Brito’s 4.12 ERA as a Padre was roughly league average. Can that translate into starts?
We are also talking about Preller so there is a better than average chance that more than one of those players is traded for a proven MLB starter.
I saw Baez throw a few games in 2023, Impressive fastball and mix of pitches. His 2024 season was a big success with the Missions, showing excellent control (low walk rate). Agree that he could crack the ML team at some point in 2025.
Another darkhorse to watch as a potential addition to the 2025 bullpen is Tyson Neighbors. Though I think the Pads pen in 25 already looks really deep especially if Reynolds and Jacob stick
“Xander and manny both have 9 years left on their deals. Plus tatis has I believe 11 more years left. They also have cronenworth who has a bunch of years left.”
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Simm;
I asked under another story: “How many teams will have the same manager for the next 10 years? The same FO Baseball heads? Even the same ownership group?”
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Your posts are coming off like those of Cardinals fans when people like me were talking about the long-term contracts they took on with Goldschmidt and Arenado.
Not sure how that is relevant but most teams will not have the same manager or front office 10 years from now.
I was just listing how long some of these deals were.
Both Xander and cronenworth’s extension look bad as of now and likely only to get worse.
I beg to differ and opine that Cronie’s contract is fine. The only real albatross is Xander, and even that is manageable at worst.
@Gwynning: I agree about Cronenworth. His play might not be up to what was expected of him when he signed (just 3.0 WAR the last two seasons) but his deal is $12-13 million a year. Not good if he continues this lower level of production but hardly an albatross.
Cronenworth is a mediocre hitting 1B/DH who was under contract for 2 more years without an extension. Would have been fine to let it play out. Instead they lined up a declining player until he is 36. That contract is awful
11 mill is right around the going price for a utility player that can play multiple positions including 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, possibly CF in an emergency and offers above average offense.
Kike Hernandez got 10 mill from the Red Sox. Marwin Gonzalez got 10.5 from the twins back in the day. Chris Taylor got 15 mill a year from the dodgers. Tommy Edman got 9.5 mill from the Cardinals.
Hernandez can actually play those positions. CT3 and Marwin contracted aged horribly. But hey if 12 million a year for a mediocre hitting corner infielder is your cup of tea go for it
So can cronenworth. He played 2B before 1B. He’s also been put at ss and 3b and in the OF.
But hey. Facts have never been your thing. Why start now.
Cronenworth has barely played ss in years. I don’t think he has played 3rd at all as a pro if so nearly never. He has never plays the outfield.
He basically a 2b/1b player. Not saying he couldn’t play those other positions in a pinch but he really never does.
He can play below average 2B defense if they need it. He has played 1 game at 3B and that was in 2020. He has never played the outfield. Beyond that it is hilarious to think he can play the outfield or adequate SS in the majors. Padres fans are down bad trying to justify locking him up until the 2029 season. He is just one of many on the bad contract pile for them so he does fly under the radar. Hey there is always the 2022 hit off Vesia.
He played around the diamond back in 2020 and 2021. Of in 2021. It was during Tatis Jr suspension cronenworth and Frazier saw time in the OF.
Tatis was suspended in 2022, Frazier wasn’t even on the team.
Well that’s one way to admit you were wrong and 11 mill is the going rate for a super utility player.
Why even comment if you’re just going to prove yourself wrong with your responses?
This Pad fan has no qualms whatsoever with Cronnie’s D at 2b. Great instincts, range, accurate arm, etc. etc. Wasn’t he a multi-time 4 win 2b? Love how he is so great at diving for liners to either side of him. Former hockey player that plays like it, not afraid to get off his feet.
He cooled off a ton with the bat mid way in September that lasted through the playoffs, but personally I thought it was a good season for him and put me at ease that he wasn’t going to be a sliver of the player he was previously.
Gentlemen;
You’re comparing Padres players salaries to players on other teams that overpay players as well. That’s fine.
Smart teams can get just as much production from many players for a fraction of the cost.
This is nothing new. In all professions there are plum jobs that pay extremely well, while people that are just as good and producing elsewhere get paid less in salary.
I enjoy following MLB FO’s that make smart moves. The same way I enjoy players on teams that play smart baseball. I’ve found watching MLB that in many cases teams can win even if they don’t play smart baseball – by throwing money at talent.
2024 is an interesting year. The 3 top payroll spending teams are in the LCS, along with a team that ranks 23rd. Naturally I’m rooting for them. Their FO has made smart moves and their players execute smart, fundamental play on the field of play. The Guardians are one of the 7-8 teams I watched a lot of this year. I wish the Brewers, O’s, Phillies, Tigers, Braves, Padres and Rays had done better, but following MLB in 2024 hassss bean gooood toooo meeeee.
Really wanted the Padres in the WS. Mike Schilt stands up for doing things the right way and got through to his players this year. I don’t care what moves the Padres make, I’d be happy if they got to the WS in 2025. He deserves it and it’ll set an example for other teams that try to shortcut things. .
If Croney plays 2B, it’s a fine contract because his power at that position is a plus, and his defense shines. The contract doesn’t look so good if he’s their primary 1bman
Agree, Xander until he is 40. He is already questionable. Well, lets see a full year of him healthy.
Samuel, you forgot to mention anything about Rotisserie Baseball. I really want to know where it fits in here.
2030. That untradeable contract goes out thru 2030.
@amk1920: While what you’re saying is mostly true (not sure if you can call him ‘declining’ yet), the AAV is low enough that he only needs to average 1-2 WAR to make the deal worth it (on paper at least) for the Padres.
Bogaerts is the real albatross, and in a couple of years Machado might join him. Going to be paying $40 million a year for Machado’s age 34-40 seasons. About 3 WAR per season over the last two years with 9 years and over $300 million left.
I hope you realize Tommy Edman got that very reasonable extension after a 6.2 WAR season.
Arraez has never been near that kind of value.
Gwynning
I beg to differ and opine that Cronie’s contract is fine.
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I’d suggest ‘overpaid but manageable’. $12M a year for any type of everyday player won’t bankrupt anyone. My issue was always that he was locked into SD thru 2026, making him 33 when his first FA contract would start. I don’t think they needed to extend him.
Just tossing this out: Bogaerts hasnt been healthy most of his time in SD. And while the contract was a gift from Seidler wishes, it looked better at the time of his signing than what has resulted based on performance. But injuries should be considered in looking at the WAR values.
Long-term contracts are gambles and a player’s health can destroy the hoped for value. For example, Musgrove’s contract looked really good as he was a perennial AS (when healthy) in his prime when the contract was signed. But they will now never get the 5 yr/$100M value from him due to his failing arm. Bad contract? Sure, in retrospect. But the reality is, just bad luck.
Bad contract? Sure, in retrospect. But the reality is, just bad luck.
==========================
Unless Musgrove suspected he would have arm issues, that was a very cheap contract at the time. But it’s kind of like Sale with the RS. There is no loss of talent.
Cronenworth’s 2.0 bWAR = an $18.5 million value in the FA market. He is being paid $11.42 million AAV.
Personally, I would not have extended him, but Preller and Seidler wanted a group of guys together for the long term, so they extended him.
The 3 full seasons before the Padres signed Bogaerts he had put up 6.3, 5.0, and 5.9 WAR. There was no reason to believe that the Padres would get anything less than the bottom of that string of seasons at least for the first 3 or 4 years of his deal.
2023 was a season that Bogaerts actually was worth what he was paid and then some. 4.4 WAR was worth roughly $40 million on the 2023-2024 FA market while the Padres paid him $25.45 million. The 2024 season was an unmitigated disaster for Bogaerts.
Musgrove was coming off a 30 start, 2.93 ERA season in 2022 and 61 starts and a 3.06 ERA over the previous two seasons. There was no reason or hints that 2023 would be any different. And then it was.
As you said, bad luck.
Bogaerts first year his posted 4.4 war while playing thru a wrist injury
Idk if he ever got it corrected over the off season but he was obviously dealing with some injury first half before his should injury
Bogaerts came back and in 61 games in the second half posted .292/.333/.429
Long as he’s healthy he’s easily capable of 2-3 war.
Thats hardly a failure of a deal. Not the best deal ever but certainly not the worst if he’s productive when healthy.
It’s not so much what he has down the last two years. It’s the next 9 years. When they signed him to that deal you are hoping to get very very good years the first 4-5 seasons aka Xander Red Sox last year.
Now that you have received okay production the first two years means the last 5 years or so are looking rough.
I had the same discussion last year with SD fans. Virtually every long FA contract looks good for the first 2-3 years.. No team would sign a guy for a 7, 8, 9 year contract if they weren’t still really good.
Wait until I blow up the internet with my suggestion that Machado is a terrible contract.
Bogaerts, Darvish, Tatis and Machado. They’re on the cuff for a spit-ton of money already. And only Darvish (who’s injury-prone) didn’t see his production drop off in 2024. Machado’s 32 now and, along with a poor attitude and frequent lack of hustle, has slowly been dropping stat-wise. Tatis is a documented cheater. I’d 86 the long-term stuff for awhile and focus on 2-3 year deals if they could.
Documented cheater because he used an over the counter ointment in his native Dominican Republic for ring worm that contained a banned substance called clostebol by the mlb but is a known ingredient in medication to treat ringworm in different countries? USA and Canada don’t put steroids in ringworm medication. Other countries are known to put steroids in ringworm medication.
You do realize drug laws are different by country right? That in some countries you’ll find drugs available at a 711 that the USA says you need prescription for. Drug laws differ between countries.
I believe
Rather than the silly defense of Tatis, I would go on the offensive and say that if he gets his act together, Tatis can be a top 5 player in all of baseball. He is also one of the most fun players to watch because he has fun and is invested in the outcome.
Silly defense being the truth?
Ny times sent down a reporter and found the exact medication Tatis jr said he used and it did in fact contain the banned substance and he was able for purchase it over the counter no Dr note or anything.
Tramadol is a controlled substance in the USA. I can hop on down to Mexico and buy it over the counter and bring it back across the border.
Other countries have different drug laws.
IBWCW – coming from a long time Padres fan, I think the best thing to do is just let this die quietly. Regardless of any countries drug laws or any cultural differences or even a mistake being made, if it’s banned by mlb then that ends it. Players have full access to the banned drugs. They have vast resources available. There are millions of dollars at stake (both sides). Rules are the rules. If you play the game follow the rules until they change them.
Just let it go and wish Tatis the best in staying injury free for the next 10 years and being a top 5 guy every year.
@letitbelowenstein
The same Manny Machado who gets blasted for making legal slides taking out a fielder (another one happened this season, totally legal, even had players on Twitter confirming it), made his own running lane (again legal) in NLDS Game 2 causing Freeman to blow the throw, whose stats improved in 2024 compared to 2023, and showed his leadership in bringing the team together in a hostile environment?
Also, Darvish is still an ace when healthy. He just proved that unequivocally.
Tatis would have improved on his 2023 numbers in 2024 if he hadn’t missed 2 and a half months. Only knock on him anymore is he needs to stay healthy. It’s only people like you who can’t accept he served his punishment and move on, for whatever reason. I hope your sins are similarly never forgiven.
Garbage comment and not even accurate.
Tatis numbers this year were excellent enough that he made the AS team. But they would have been much better (while he played) if not for playing on a broken leg for two+ months. A healthy Tatis is something I’d like to see. He’s a 50-50 candidate in 162 games, though I doubt the team ever allows him to steal bases at will ever again.
Informed
Tatis is one of my favorite players and I think he can be a top 5 player on the MLB, but I have no problem with the posters who constantly bring up his past stupidity. Tatis needs to own that. Hope it deters future young kids from stupid mistakes. His at bats are fun to watch, and he plays great defense as well.
Garbage comment and not even accurate.
======================
Too much homerism.
On Tatis, I agree. It’s only rotisserie, but I have Tatis being my last pick in the 1st round. That counts SBs, but doesn’t count defense. That to me is a very valua ble player.
But Machado, imo, is a horrible contract. It is not quite a steep decline, but he is definitely on a decline. Even if you get two more good years, you have a lot of tail-end to account for
Darvish is still a good pitcher, but again, declining.
@MLB Top 100
“I have no problem with the posters who constantly bring up his past stupidity.”
Noted.
I do.
It is as tired as still going after the Astros as a franchise. Tatis can’t undo what he did, and he has served his punishment. Like I said, none of the people trolling with that are saints, and I hope they fast similar unyielding slings ans arrows for their mistakes.
@JoeBrady
Manny did not decline this year. Not homerism to note that.
If he declines in two years instead of five, that is whatever. Outside of the scope of that discussion.
K/W, speed, and GB/FB all declined. That’s where it starts. It happens to every player.
Machado’s WAR, BA, OBP, SL, OPS, OPS+ all increased over 2023 and other than WAR were in line with his career averages prior to this season.
Playing 33 games at DH and a slight drop in his defense due his injury accounts for the drop in WAR.
Bogaerts is the obvious poor contract, but even with missing several months, Darvish has been worth the money.
Not sure if Arraez would take it, but multiple years with an AAV of 10M seems pretty fair. Could even give him a no trade clause as a sweetener.
He’s 27
Back-to-back-to-back batting titles is hard not to want to keep. A 4 year deal wouldn’t be horrible but i probably wouldn’t do more than that
The Bogaerts deal looked/was terrible before the ink was dry. What was supposedly being negotiated between bogaerts/boras and boston towards returning after he opted out was bad enough (6/180m) what he got out of SD was an anchor type deal, which will hold spending for years, not to mention resigning machado when he opted out.
Those 2 now will take up 60m+ another 9 years, past the age of 40. Hard to understand what drove them to do 1 of the deals, but both at virtually the same time.
Funding for people coming up must be done lightning quick, like they attempted in the article with merril yesterday to keep costs down and Tatis with his massive deal, What about Cease, is he to be gone after ’25. So much money burned with the Bogaerts/machado contracts and I like this team, it’s an honest critique from my part.
Silver- those deals (Manny and X) were done at the behest and will of Mr. Peter Seidler. Who are we to care what some rich owner wants to spend his money on? The Pads will surely survive the cap hit.
Bogaerts was a complete failure of a deal and Machado’s most recent deal while ok now will surely not age well. The deal for Tatis will age well if he stays away from motorcycles and PEDs. The emergence of Merrill largely makes up for Bogaerts. Padres are just like Ken, in any other division they would be a 10.
Yeah I gotta bandwagon dog pile on this-
I’ve always found it fascinating how baseball fans froth at the mouth for their team to sign high profile high leverage players to competitive extensions or free agency contracts- and then almost immediately gripe/denote that the player is getting older with so many years left on that deal.
So basically: spend money on proven talent with a long track record of success, but once you do that you’re a reckless front office that hands out bloated contracts to players who are only going to eventually, inevitably decline.
The beauty of the game is that as every bloated aging contract scuffles to the end of its era, a) the deal value is starting to look quaint and b) there’s some young Grade A talented player about to hit free agency or on your team, under club control, going through arbitration.
There’s this thing in fascism where they try to convince the masses that their enemy/target of hatred is both strong and weak, both dumb and clever, etc.
And that’s how some people seem to view baseball economics: teams are owned by ultra wealthy people who should be spending money to win, but every mega contract that was necessary in order to land that player and every player on a long term deal is now a sunk cost liability that is effectively burning money and roster space.
Sports is gambling. Gotta play to win. Gotta place your bets to play and to win: that means handing out potentially bloated contracts.
and then almost immediately gripe/denote that the player is getting older with so many years left on that deal.
=======================
I agree that’s about half the fans. But there is also a middle ground where you sign guys with at least a few prime years left to offset the eventually decline.
The original Machado contract might be the prime example of both. SD got some very nice production out of him for five years (ages 26-30). That’s what you want. If he went into a slow decline in the second five years, you still probably get good value overall.
OTOH, the second contract, they likely only get 2, maybe 3, prime years, and 7-8 declining years.
Gotta admit, I was a little surprised that bWAR and fWAR both pegged Arraez as barely above replacement level in 2024, I thought he was overrated because of what Bill James used to call the “batting average illusion,” but I didn’t think he was that bad. An arbitration raise to $14 million is onerous enough for the Padres, but a long-term extension? Not such a great idea.
Even WAR had Arraez at 2.7 and 3.3 in 2022 and 2023. You could chalk up his 1.1 WAR this year to the bad thumb.
Still not worth $14 million. I can’t argue with that. Worth an extension based on what the team thinks his batting average can do for them? Worth it.
CaseyAbell;
WAR is for rotisserie league along with salary negotiations and arbitration.
It does not corollate to wins.
Depends what a persons priorities are.
WAR is for rotisserie league
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It’s not. Fielding is too big a component of WAR to make it relevant to rotisserie.
Joe;
Which WAR?
fWAR uses fielding more that bWAR.
And as someone that’s never played rotisserie league, why wouldn’t fielding be a component of rotisserie league? Isn’t what a position player does on D a component of how he’s producing. Furthermore, I believe that defensive stats are even more misleading than offensive stats are.
–
What rotisserie league reminds me of is statements I’ve heard from good guitar musicians:
“When I play an acoustic guitar I’m playing the instrument. When I play an electric guitar I’m playing the speakers.”
why wouldn’t fielding be a component of rotisserie league?
============================
Only position counts. There are very few catchers, and not a lot of 2Bs or 3Bs that can hit. But if best-fielding catcher and the worst fielder makes no difference.
It’s not meant to be real baseball, but I do to keep me sharp. It makes you keep track of guys like Skenes last year and maybe Painter this year. And injuries, like gambling on guys like Cole last year, or McClanahan this year.
And extrapolating injuries, like trying to figure out what Tatis would’ve looked like without the injury.
Watching hi on the Marlins we were excitied about a guy to root for. But then you see the bigger picture. He would be worth more if more power-even 20 Hr power, more speed (ability to get 35-45 doubles, More walks, and average fielding at the least. He would only need one of those. He tried to get the Marlins to go for a big deal at the end of 2023. They have no money and are cheap. But what did Arraez ask? I think he wanted many yrs. Is is not taking small money, and not going for a short deal. I have a feeling he is talkign abotu some crazy 10 yr deal like most.
You spelled Jazz Chisholm Jr wrong
Not even close. Dude is vastly overrated.
Arraez is arraez.
But chisholms always been overrated
Stay on topic special needs. The topic is most overrated player in mlb. Not who’s better than who. Most overrated player is Chisholm by a light year.
He’s completely overrated. Being better than other players doesn’t mean you’re not overrated lmao. So you don’t know what overrated means. Got it. Words are hard for you I know.
Chisholm is the most overrated player in the entire mlb. He’s had one good season the last 5 (this past year) and wasn’t really anything special considering he has the tools to be better defensively and has a better offensive profile than he’s produced. He’s overrated.
Arraez does what he does and does it well. Gets on base.
Chisholm does things subpar
Dodgers didn’t have any motivation against the padres.
Which is why they changed the lineup inserting Taylor and Kiki Hernandez in game 4. Lmao. They needed a spark down 2-1 and got the spark inserting known high effort high energy players in Taylor and Hernandez.
My god how limited are you intellectually? Cause just when I think you can’t be any slower you prove me wrong and out do yourself.
Responded to everything you said. Just because I use big words you don’t understand well that is a you issue.
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 special needs?
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 mentally challenged?
They tried other options before inserting them into game 4 and 5. So your reason is debunked by the sheer fact dodgers tried other players moving edman to ss and pages to cf to replace edman in game 3. Pay attention.
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 special needs?
I’m enjoying the fact you can throw insults around to people but can’t take them very well. It’s great watching you lose your cool when you’re proven wrong every step of the way. Weak minded you are.
LOL awfully quiet now. Guess you didn’t realize they used other options to replace injured guys before turning to Taylor and Hernandez in games 4 and 5. Oooooooooooooooooooof big whiffer.
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 single digit iq?
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 smooth brain? Avoiding the question cause you got debunked. Nice look. Typical response from cowards who are afraid to admit they’re wrong even when facts prove you being wrong. You’re like a scared animal backed into a corner lmao.
You mean the Homer where betts just automatically ran back to the dugout cause he thought Profar caught it again
Hahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahah lololololoooooolololooolololololoooooololololol
Yeah that was a prime example of lack of motivation way to further debunk your own examples. Betts literally gave up and ran back to the dugout automatically out of instinct like why bother lmao. Jesus you’re bad at this. Proving my own points for me. Thanks.
Betta hits a homer
Immediately gives up on it
Runs back to the dugout
And you think that’s a sign of motivation and leadership?
Lmmmmmmmmaaaaaaaaooooooooo
Hahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahah
Lolololololololololloloololo
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 glue sniffer?
You’re literally proving my points for me. Betts literally gave up on a home run and you think that’s a prime example of motivation lmao no no it was not and that was game 3
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 special k?
Who hits a home run and immediately runs back to the dugout without checking first? Lmao like didn’t event check betts ran back to the dugout like oh well here we go again.
And you think that’s a sign of motivation and leadership?
Lmmmmmmmmmaooooooooooo
Hahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha
Lolololololololololololololo
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 special ed?
Your argument injuries led to changes was wrong cause they used other guys before Taylor and Hernandez.
You provide a prime example of lack of motivation in game 3 where betts immediately heads to the dugout didn’t even wait to confirm out or home run just headed straight for the dugout as an example of motivation
And you somehow think adding guys who didn’t play games 1-3 into games 4 and 5 wasn’t to add a spark or add energy into a lineup.
Lmao you’re dumber than a box of rocks. I’m not sure if you’re born this way or an accident caused you to develop significant brain damage but you’ve got the lowest iq points on this entire site. Like how do you manage to be this dumb? It’s sad that you’re this mentally challenged. Cause I’ve met people with Down syndrome that can function better than you can.
Motivation: putting your head down running back to the dugout without waiting to confirm out or home run lmao
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 brain damage?
Until you give me a legit reason I’ll keep asking.
“Injuries” nope they used other players besides Taylor and Hernandez in game 3.
Motivation: just head back to the dugout don’t wait to find out if it’s an out or home run just assume it’s an out
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 Forrest Gump?
Injuries: nope they used other options before Taylor and Hernandez in game 3.
Motivation: I’m just gonna call it ump I’m out- Mookie betts 2024
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 Helen Keller?
Still waiting for an actual reason I haven’t debunked already
So you still think motivation is calling yourself out before checking?
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 extra 23rd chromosome?
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 under developed frontal lobe?
Still refusing to answer why lineup changes were made for games 4 and 5 after your injury argument was debunked lmao. Got you stuck between a rock and hard place.
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 king nothing?
Still refusing to answer why lineup changes were made
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 offspring of sibling parents?
Still refusing to answer why lineup changes were made
Why’d the dodgers put Taylor and Kiki Hernandez into the starting line up in game 4 and game 5 and not stick with the original options in games 1 2 3 broken record?
Good boy. You’re a lot more calmer now. Good thing I beat that attitude out of you. It was for your own good.
Omg you said the line twice in the same discussion?
Maybe with the marlins. Chisholm improved greatly once he went to the Yankees
If his best year was the one that just happened then maybe it’s time to put the argument to rest
The moment someone uses the line “and it’s not even close” they lose their credibility
And the term literal or literally
Arraez was top 10 among leadoff hitters in WAR and he did that while being a DH most of the season, which cuts your potential WAR.
AJ is not only going to extend Arraez with an overpay, he’s going to offer a QO to Profar too!
Whole bunch of faithful will love it. lol
I think neither of those things are going to happen.
If the padres are committed to a payroll closer to 2024 vs 2023 then there really isn’t any space to do either of those moves.
257m 2023, 169m 2024 and are currently projected with the team they have to be at 207m in 2025. That’s basically right in the middle of 23’-24’.
Preller will need to be very creative again this offseason.
I don’t see a QO to Profar. The team can’t afford it.
I want him to hit free agency just because I’m very curious how he would be valued on the open market. I wouldn’t pay him a ton and I could see the league agreeing, but it only takes one team.
Yeah I agree. I really have no idea what he is worth. His one skill set is hitting singles.
If the dude would stop swinging at balls his walk rate would be much higher. Therefore so would his obp, making him very valuable even with his other shortcomings.
When the Marlins moved him, I thoguht this guy would be great fr the Yankees. Gets on base, then big sluggers drive him in. But he does have a very lowe OBP and zero speed.
Robw, as a yankee fan I think we definitely acquired the better player from the marlins this year. Jazz is better than arraez in literally every other facet of the game other than hitting singles.
@robw- Also not a valuable defender!
Over the last 4 seasons, post-COVID, he is #2 in OBP in MLB among leadoff hitters.
His ability to not swing when he has two strikes is probably my least favorite thing about his game.
I don’t love that he is limited to 1b even though I think his defense is good enough to play there, nor that his xbh’s are so far and few between, or that he is a slow leadoff hitter. But swinging at balls with 2 strikes is brutal when how far out of the zone a lot of them are. He could easily be a legit .400 OBP guy if he wasn’t so damn swing happy with 2 strikes.
I don’t think they’ll extend him. In fact I would be pretty shocked if they did. With Cronenworth and Boegarts both pegged for the right side of the infield and signed long term, I don’t think you want to lock up a player like this to be your DH.
I won’t be surprised if the Padres don’t tender him a contract offer for next season.
I would be floored if they didn’t tender Arraez a contract.
Trade him. A 1.1 WAR DH can be improved upon.
A 1.1 WAR DH man puts him in the top 10 in the game last season. His 3.4 WAR average over the past 4 seasons puts him top 5 as a leadoff man.
Including all arbitration raises, $17.24 million for Hosmer, $6.4 million for pre-arb players (Roster Resource has this wrong), $2.6 million for minor league players on the 40 man roster, $1.67 million for 0-3 year bonus players, and $17 million for estimated player benefits, the Padres are at $242 million in CBT payroll without adding Profar, Higgy, Scott, or anyone else.
As usual Acee was wrong this season as the Padres ended at $231 million in CBT payroll, not the $200 million he insisted they had to stay under. They also ended the season having spent just over $200 million in actual salaries, far above the $169 million listed in his article and on this site.
Arraez is extremely underated. People act like winning a battle title is meaningless. Hes won it 3 times in a row, best average hitter out of all the best players in the world. War undervalues him just like how it does Salvy Perez. 3 years ago, Myles Straw had a WAR of 3 while batting around .240 with zero homeruns. Arraez had a BA of .350 with 10hrs and barely scraped by to a 3 WAR. Awful stat
He does nothing else except hit for average. He has no power. He isn’t fast. He can’t play defense. He’s got one exceptional skill but his weaknesses in other areas are why his WAR is so low.
He is definitely a rare t situation in MLB as far as his value. One thing I believe, he wants a long deal with nice money. Would he be a guy teams would fight for in free agency. I really doubt it. The guy can win a 4th batting title in 2025 and his value remains the same.
War definitely doesn’t like Arraez. Which is why it makes valuing him so hard.
A batting title is meaningless if you are a DH/mediocre 1B with no power. All he does is hit lame ducks all over the field. He barley won the batting title over Ohtani while sitting out the last few games of the year. He is not the best of anything
Just for the record he sat out one game the last weekend of the season. He didn’t hide from anything like you suggested. He has an injury he was playing with and the padres didn’t want him playing at all those last few games but he wanted to.
Yeah he played the last game of the season which he could have easily sat out and pretty much had the batting title in the bag doing that. Heaven forbid a team rests a player playing through an injury that has already clinched a playoff spot.
“BaseballExpert”
ROFLMAO!!
When he learns to take pitches and try not to get a hit every time, he’ll be dangerous as hell
I know what you meant, but it is just weird to see someone say it is better to take a pitch than to try and get a hit.
Not weird when you see the kind of pitches he swings at with 2 strikes. Balls a foot out of the zone are swung at numerous times every game. Yes, its impressive that he can make contact on probably 90% of them, but it’s hurting him being so damn swing happy late in the count. He usually takes the first pitch of the at bat, a quality strike to put a mediocre pitch in play later in the at bat which I can’t wrap my head around.
It’s called the Soto Syndrome. Guessing fans in San Diego are well acquainted with this phenomenon…
I don’t think a lot of teams will be looking/willing to lock up DH for a guy like Arraez for multiple years.
Uh yes please, give me 14 years at 300 million dollars too !!!
He is great simply because he puts the ball in play. I am not saying this as some mathematician that would rather look at a spreadsheet than watch a baseball game. I am saying this as a fan that is so damn tired of seeing nothing but walks and strikeouts in games. I don’t watch games to see pitches looked at. I watch to see pitches hit and put in play regardless of their outcome. That entertains me and entertaining the fans should be the goal of every MLB team. Because without the fans, those trophies are meaningless.
Wins are the best entertainment teams can provide, and Arraez contributes to them only marginally despite the superficial benefit his BA seems to provide.
I’d rather watch my team lose an entertaining game than win a boring one. Because eventually you will get tired of watching boring games and move on.
Rockies will lose a lot! Hope it’s entertaining!
Wow! I do not ever recall going home after a game thinking “Sure, we lost, but we lost in an exciting fashion”. I don’t even know how to process that statement.
Was there even a single Red Sox fan in the entire planet that turned off the 2004 WS, even though we swept in easy and boring fashion?
When asked, (insert player’s name here) stated that of course he would be happy to sign for more money with his current team, especially if it would provide a long term guarantee of massive wealth, regardless of performance.
Maybe a 4/48.
Feels about right. I was thinking 4/55 with a couple of option years.
He’s the Venezuelan Ichiro. Lock him up long term before someone else does. He’s just coming into his prime at 27. People don’t know generational talent anymore.
Ichiro was a no doubt, first ballot Hall of Famer. Arraez belongs to the hall of irrelevant in 10 years.
I can spot trolls now, though. He’s not even the Venezuelan Ozzie Guillen.
He’s almost exactly like Ichiro… when he was 36. Only slower.
In 2023-2024 Arraez was almost exactly like a 2002-2003 Ichiro.
I thought Ichiro was so good that you had to be full of it, so I looked it up, and when it comes to the hitting part they are pretty close.
Ichiro – .317 BA, .800 OPS, 116 OPS+
Arraez – .333 BA, .797 OPS, 117 OPS+
On WAR Ichiro had the better stats, 9.2 vs 6.0. Most of that can be attributed to Arraez 107 games at 1B/DH in San Diego. Even as a league average defensive 2B he would have put up a similar WAR to Ichiro after a 4.9 WAR in 2023.
He is Rod Carew when Carew was 38 and at the end of his career.
He’s the Venezuelan Ichiro.
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LOL! Ichiro was a 10x GG winner, and Arraez is a DH. And Ichiro was lightening fast while Arraez is glacial slow.
Otherwise they are identical.
Arraez is a league average defensive player and was league average in most measures of baserunning including stolen bases and XBT%.
Leave the Hyperbole to Nick Deeds and Kevin Acee
DRS, OAA, and FRV all post negative numbers for Arraez’ fielding.
-12 OAA. Arraez is and always has been a poor defensive player. Leave the hyperbole to websoulsurfer or alias!
Wouldn’t be surprised if traded and possibly non-tendered the Pads have other needs than paying him 14 mill. Just not enough production
The lunacy never stops
Shocking how many people miss the point of a possible extension. Arraez is due $14m via arbitration in 2025. If he is willing to forego that for a longer deal both sides could win. I like Arraez but I think $14m for one season of him is a stretch. He makes contact like noone else but he needs to improve his walk numbers in order to really get the most from his game.
The Padres have several of these middle of the road ability type guys, I think they need to be open to keeping Profar, Kim & Arraez but ultimately go with whoever is the most reasonable about the $$$. Profar had a good year, but realistically he will not repeat it (he was already falling off late season). Arraez is amazing to watch every day, but in the end he is like a 109OPS+ guy. Kim is solid but might have peaked in 2023 and now the surgery. Getting above $10m annually for any of those three is risky IMO
Not only are none of these guys coming back, they will trade Cease and extend King.
Cease will be a Padre in 2025 and at least of those guys will be coming back. Probably not Kim.
Why on Earth would they trade Cease after giving up ALL THAT, like, ALL THAT to acquire him in the first place?
Because his arbitration salary at near $15M will take up too much of the remaining payroll budget they have. He coupled with Arraez would be around $30M of the $50M they are expected to spend on adding to the 9 contracts totaling around $160M in payroll. They have to squeeze about 25 plus players into that $50M. Need a SS, C, LF, and add pitching and depth. They will probably keep King at around $8M.
Correction: 9 contracts totaling $150M. This includes paying Hosmer one last year. This was Preller going all in for one last shot at a WS this season when he emptied the farm system.
Maybe they should have thought of that before they traded for him! Preller made his bed with that trade, now sleep in it!
It’s not like Dylan Cease doesn’t fill a need for the Padres anyway.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Cease is a Boras guy. Almost zero chance he signs an extension. They will test FA after next season. So probably get a better return if they move him this offseason
Should have thought of that before they traded for him/you never trade for a player so you can try to extend him.
They gave up ALL THAT and more for Soto then turned around and traded him the next year
And how is the first Soto trade looking for them right now?
Getting lots of singles with no power or defense just isn’t that valuable in today’s game. Luis entered the league 20 years too late.
It’s exactly as valuable as it has always been. The only difference is the way people look at it now.
You let kim walk irrelevant walk and keep arraez 1 more year and that’s it
Arraez on a 4 year $32 million extension would be big win for Padres.
I think you hit the numbers on the head. If he will sign for that, the Padres will absolutely sign him. It lowers their CBT number for him and gives them a .350 OBP at the top of the order that is an extremely hard out.
I think account #1 agrees with account #2!
Project much Ryan? You even liked your comment with all your other accounts. Awwwww
There is one of Ryan’s other accounts. How many do you have now Ryan? Do you get upset when people pick them out so quickly and easily? Only wish I had caught it first.
And there’s account #3. Not even trying to be subtle about it anymore!
Nope. You get two more tries.
The hilarious part is that jbigz12 and Ryan hate each other.
Arraez is about to get 14-15m in arb which nearly half that amount. There is a zero % chance he signs for 8m a year. The padres aren’t going to non tender him which means they feel he is worth at least 14-15m next year. Perhaps they don’t think he is worth 15×4 but nobody knows.
My guess is Arraez either this year or next will sign a deal that pays him 15-20m per season. It just takes one team to value his skill set.
I wonder what Gwynn would get on a 4 year deal at same age as Arraez?
Gwynn was coming off a 1987 season in which he hit .370, had a .958 OPS and a 158 OPS+. Not quite apples to apples.
Gwynn was not yet a FA and wouldn’t be until the 88-89 offseason, but if that was today, he would likely be looking at $25+ million AAV over 12+ years.
I wasn’t comparing Gwynn to Arraez, just curious what his AAV might be. Tony was grossly under paid in my opinion.
$15-$20M per year? Ozuna is $16M. Schwarber is just under $20M per. You are putting Arraez in that class? I don’t think so. The arbitration number he gets this season would probably, on an AAV basis, be higher than what he would get in FA. I would not be surprised if they can’t trade him or think they can trade him, that they non-tender him. He is not a $14M player.
A 4 year extension, not a deal that vacates 2025. I’m talking about a deal around $46 million over 5 years. $32 million in additional guaranteed money.
If you think Arraez is going to get $15-20 million AAV for a 106 OPS+ you are not very smart.
If he bounces back to his 22/23 seasons of 128 ops+ then yeah I think he will get 15+.
If he has another 106 then it becomes doubtful. I’m sure he would bet on himself best year before he signs a 8m a year deal.
He won’t get that to DH.
I think that is the key thing. If Arraez is a DH, then he is not getting the $15 million AAV deal. If he plays mostly 2B for the Padres in 2025, then there is a good chance that he does. The difference in a league average defensive 2B that hits .320/128 OPS+ and a DH with the same numbers is humongous.
I doubt the padres play Arraez at second all that often. Some starts prob, they seem to like him at 1b over 2b. He doesn’t profile at a typical 1b. Though as a free agent who knows where some other team would play him.
Padres will need to add another infielder this offseason. That will help free up the dh spot to be moved around. The good news it doesn’t have to be at a particular spot. I could see them having Eguy Rosario as a bench piece/spot starter. He crushes lefties. He was also getting some looks in the outfield in aaa at the end of the season. He maybe becomes a super utility guy if his glove holds up.
Not if his arb number is $14.6M. The remaining 3 years is only $17.4M/3. I’m an agnostic on Arraez, but the numbers don’t work. He won’t be worth both $14.6M for one season, and only $8M per for four seasons.
Totally get the comments to ditch Arraez because his defense is suspect, doesn’t have great speed and little power. Dude gets on base and can hit singles. Gets driven in but does little driving himself. For this current team, is his potential best spot in the 7-9 lineup range to extend innings and get driven in by the 1-2-3 guys? Possibly. Is he the prototypical leadoff guy? Absolutely not. So how much do you pay him to be a 7-9 hitter? Can’t give him the dedicated DH spot when you would be looking to rotate the X-Man, Manny or Tati into that on a decent basis. Love watching the guy spray the field but thinking Preller ditches him at some point.
Unsure as to exactly what it says about baseball when the leader for the last three seasons in batting average (for three different teams!!!!!) has difficulty finding consistent employment.
With Kim possibly leaving in FA and Profar now spending more time in the OF, a reunion between the Pads and Luis would be good business for both.
I’ve followed Arraez since he broke in (Twins fan). He is a unicorn in the current MLB world of power and strikeouts. He might win ten batting championships, but he has limited defensive value and lacks speed and power. That is a lot of negatives to overcome. It appears “the book” on him is to challenge him with strikes, because the worst that can happen (essentially) is a single. His walk and OBP rate shrank dramatically last year to the point where he is barely a plus as a hitter (106 OPS+).
When he recovers from the thumb injury, maybe he’ll hit with more exit velocity and power and pitchers will have to respect that, but getting on at a .346 clip with little power and speed doesn’t justify the money he will earn or an extension.
People can say what they want but when AJ got Arraez, who might be the best contact hitter in baseball right now, it changed the Padres batting order for the good in my opinion
Having an everyday lead off hitter is very hard to find…he set the table for Tatis, Profar, Machado etc and he stabilized the lineup for the rest of the season.He is not as bad defensively or running the bases as people make him out to be and defense can be taught and improved but the ability to hit consistently is a god given talent. I’m hoping the Padres can get something done in the two to three year range…
Low ceiling guy that is reliant on BA. Hard pass. Eventual drop off will be sharp and swift.
The padres can definitely afford a 235 million payroll, petco park is sold out most games.