Latest On The Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

As the postseason nears its conclusion, we’re rapidly nearing the proper start of the offseason for all thirty clubs. Among the first decisions to be made for any club during the offseason is whether or not they’ll exercise club options for the following season. Those decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series, but clubs generally have an idea of where they stand before then. The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed the Cardinals’ plans for the three club options they hold for 2025 this morning, and noted that the club is “not expected” to exercise its $12MM option ($1MM buyout) on veteran righty Lance Lynn or its $6MM option ($1MM buyout) on reliever Keynan Middleton.

Neither of those decisions are necessarily a surprise. Previous reporting indicated that Middleton was expected to land elsewhere this winter, and while Lynn’s status was more up in the air it’s long appeared that the club may prefer to retain right-hander Kyle Gibson on his team option, which comes with identical terms to Lynn’s, in 2025. That said, Woo makes clear that even Gibson’s option being picked up isn’t a guarantee. Instead, Woo suggests that the club would be “almost guaranteed” to trade either right-hander Miles Mikolas or southpaw Steven Matz this winter if Gibson’s option does end up getting picked up. Woo notes that the odds of Gibson’s option being picked up will “increase” if the Cardinals feel confident they’ll be able to move one of the two this winter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Matz is surely the more tradable of the duo, even as he’s coming off a largely lost season on the mound that saw him pitch to a lackluster 5.08 ERA amid injuries that limited him to just 44 1/3 innings of work on the mound. While that production is unlikely to entice much in return on the trade market, the increasing price of starting pitching in recent years makes the remaining one year and $12.5MM on Matz’s contract a bit more palatable than it otherwise would be. Overall, the southpaw has been roughly league average (95 ERA+) while swinging between the bullpen and rotation for the Cardinals and figures to be a generally solid serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in 2025. It’s also possible a club could look to convert him to full-time relief work after the lefty posted sub-3.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in each of his last three seasons, albeit in small sample sizes that total just 33 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball.

Mikolas, however, figures to be quite difficult for the club to move. Woo notes that the 36-year-old is among the club’s many veterans (including Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado) who holds a no-trade clause that will restrict their availability to be dealt this winter. The Cardinals will need to have conversations with all of those players about their futures, but even if Mikolas agrees to waive his no-trade rights to play elsewhere its unclear how interested rival clubs would be in his services. Mikolas just endured the worst season of his Cardinals career in 2024 as he pitched to a subpar 5.35 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work.

A hurler who will turn 37 in August with three below average seasons by ERA+ over the last four years and a $17.67MM salary for 2025 seems unlikely to garner much interest on the trade market unless St. Louis is willing to pay down a significant portion of his salary. That being said, there are some silver linings in Mikolas’s profile. The veteran’s 4.24 FIP and 4.28 SIERA in 2024 were far better than his actual on-field results, and he remains one of the most durable starters in the game today. Over the past three seasons, Mikolas has made 100 appearances (99 starts) and thrown 575 1/3 innings. That’s good for the sixth-most innings in baseball over that time, behind only Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. If the Cardinals were willing to pay down a portion of Mikolas’s salary, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of innings could take a flier on the veteran in hopes of a bounce-back.