On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.
The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.
What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.
Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.
Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.
With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.
Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.
Elder should not even be remotely in the equation.
Anybody but Bryce “Nuclear Meltdown” Elder
Elder is still quite young. Look at the years of Glavine and Maddox. They weren’t so great either. No one is giving Elder any time to mature. His ERA is better than Hall of Famers like Glavine and maddux in the first two years.
Elder is 25. Maddux and Glavine both had top 3 CY Young seasons by that age.
Well you draft all these pitchers with top picks for so many years it’s time some of them show up and take a rotation spot. Otherwise then why did you draft them in the 1st place and continue to neglect middle infield a position that has needed attention for 4 years. When we knew Dansby was more than likely going to leave and Arcia was a band-aid that overachieved in the 1st half of 2023. But he have nothing at SS really.
I love AA but the long-term handling of the SS position and trading away William Contreras are his worst moves/ decisions as GM.
How has middle infield needed attention for years with Albies giving you about 10% better than league average production, Swanson giving them league average offense with good defense, Arcia giving them league average offense last 2 years before cratering this year.
Middle infield isn’t really the Braves issues all this time. The OF. Different story. acuna injury troubles constantly replacing guys. Really no stability in the OF last 3-4 years
They have filled almost every position internally for years. These pitchers he speaks of are very young. He makes it sound like none of those pitching prospects have showed up and that the ones remaining are 25 or something. Arcia has filled in admirably defensively. You can’t be above average everywhere. They draft pitching so they don’t have to add expensive free agents. It’s hard to draft a quality SS with low picks and expect for sure that it will pan out anyway. I also disagree on the Contreras trade. It’s one bad offensive season from Murphy with elite defense and game calling. He is one of the reasons everyone in this rotation and bullpen has outperformed what you would expect.
I didn’t say any of these pitchers are going to be busts but some will be that’s the percentages but at some point you got to go to the future and quit giving Charlie Morton 20 mil a season for 12 million worth of production. And Fried isn’t resigning someone will pay him $150 mil so yea it’s time we get something out of these young out here we have drafted so far Schwellenbach has paid off and Strider before him but there’s 2 spots that will be open and possibly 3 if Strider takes longer than expected and this team doesn’t pay for big name free agents so it’s either trade or some prospects will have to step up.
@Braves Butt-head: Didn’t see this comment before I replied to the one above. We basically agree on the young pitching. Don’t see why the Braves would have drafted a SS if they didn’t see one they liked and also preferred the pitchers available to them.
Word on the playground is that my O’s are going to be huge sellers as they enter their next rebuild. Does Dean Kremer and his 4.32 FIP interest you? The powerhouse Orioles are overflowing with #4/#5 starters!
@FF Big L said it best
“To be sittin clean, in the mean beams is every teams dream
Big L’s a (Dean)Kreme(r) Fiend, with more green than Springsteen”
@Braves Butt-head: Strider and Schwellenbach are 2 recent draftees that seem likely to be long term significant rotation stalwarts. Not all young pitchers experience immediate MLB success. AJSS, Waldrep, Hackenburg, and Burkhalter all seem close to being contributors over the next 2 years.
@Braves Butt-Head
You also have to remember the Braves have traded away a lot of the top prospects who were top draft picks.
2015 Kolby Allard – traded
2016 Ian Anderson – still hope coming off Tommy John and has had post season success
2016 Joey Wentz – traded
2017 Kyle Wright – traded
2018 Carter Stewart – didn’t sign
2019 Shea Langliers – traded
2020 Jared Schuster – traded
2021 Ryan Cusick- traded
2022 Owen Murphy – only 21 coming off Tommy John
2022 JR Ritchie – also only 21 coming off Tommy John
2023 Hursten Waldrep
2024 Cam caminiti
So it isn’t like the Braves have a ton of top draft picks left to use
What ever happened to Ian Anderson and huascar ynoa?
Ian was actually decent in the minors, Ynoa , I just looked up, had a 6.27 ERA in 29 innings…
Ynoa really working his way back from injury. I wouldn’t look at this years numbers to mean much of anything.
That said he was always a surprise success when he did have his good season. Hard to know which way he will break. Most likely see him in the bullpen in the future.
You know he wouldn’t be pitching if he wasn’t healthy enough to though, right?
Fried injured before last years playoff and Braves lose. Fried in playoffs and Braves still lose. Hunscar Noah was injured rehabbing in the minors as was Anderson. I expected both to be called up this year but didn’t happen. Noah has a bargain 850k arbitration price. Braves don’t really need a lot of rotation pieces if these guys can pitch.
Don’t give up on Allan Winans!
Why would we have Spencer Strider early next year? this was his 2nd TJ…people don’t come back from those as quickly…DeGrom only made 3 starts this year. ( I know he’s older, but still)
Strider didn’t have Tommy John surgery, rather he had internal brace surgery in mid-April this year, which typically doesn’t take as long to recover from compared to TJ surgery. deGrom had TJ surgery and it was in mid-June.
I think this year showed just how important elite pitching is for an organization and how you can’t have too much of it. If it wasn’t for a few gambles that turned into gold and depth, the Braves would have been in huge trouble with all the injuries and disappearance of the offense. That said, Braves need to go get at least 1 proven strong starter in my humble opinion. Fried is my choice but I’d love them to spend for Burnes. BOTH in my fantasy land. But I’d love them to go get another gamble also. Regardless… have to replace max to some degree and absolutely must find a glove that can actually hit at short
” If it wasn’t for a few gambles that turned into gold and depth, the Braves would have been in huge trouble with all the injuries and disappearance of the offense.”
bravesfan;
The Braves have one of the top-tier pitching coaching departments in MLB, led by Rick Kranitz. The O’s took their head pitching coach – Drew French – from the Braves last off-season.
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They also have one of the best catchers in MLB – Sean Murphy – running that staff. (Backup catcher Travis d’Arnaud is OK working with pitchers, although not topnotch. He hits well though.)
The Braves make a high percentage of pitchers they bring in much better than they were previously.
They won’t spend for Fried or Burnes. Wacha would be a good choice. If Strider comes back anywhere near his 2023 form and Sale can stay healthy, a 2025 rotation of Strider, Sale, Schwellenbach, and Wacha would be strong. I think Lopez should go back to the bullpen and be a power arm there. Waldrep, Anderson, Smith-Shawver, and Drue Hackenberg all could be the other starter.
Fried is gone.
Braves offered 200M to try to pry Aaron Nola from the Phillies this past off season. He chose to stay in Philly for less. Offer Max what Nola received or offer it to Burnes.
Braves didn’t offer $200 million. They offered 6/162. He signed for 7/172. Not too hard to pick the team you’ve played with since the beginning when you get an extra year and 10 million.
Braves should sign neither Burnes or Fried. They should trade Ozuna and use the $16 million from that and the $20 million from Morton to sign Tomoyuki and Kim.
Bring back Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, and Rocker.
If the Cardinals do a full tear down Sonny Gray makes a lot of sense for the Braves. He grew up not far from Atlanta and he would be a great top of the rotation guy to go along with Sale and Strider. I imagine Gray has negative value given his contract so Cardinals could pay some and get a prospect back.
Gray has a no trade clause, but I cannot imagine him blocking a trade to the Braves.
Gray, Sale, Strider, Lopez and Schwellenbach would be great
Please no more Fried. He is far from an ace and not worth another investment. Don’t bring back Morton either. Time for a makeover. This includes trading Albies as well, and letting go Arcia, Kelenic, and Duvall. Trade your overrated young pitchers other than SS.
Bring back Urshela and keep Soler. Please bring back TD.
Speaking of Albies, really amazes me how no one talks about how ****y he is as a hitter and a baserunner.
You’d rather keep Urshela than Albies? Yikes. Urshela won’t be tendered—and shouldn’t be. No need for a makeover. Just a tweaking and good health from the core regulars.
Albies and Fried are great bro. I do think it’s unnecessary for the Braves to bring Fried back but I would like them to do it. Most likely they won’t but I get the logic
You’re on crack thinking they should trade Albies. One of the most team friendly contracts in the history of baseball. Albies is quite frankly getting hosed with what he signed.
They do need to replace Arcia. I was saying this before Swanson left that they had no replacement for him. They got lucky with Arcia having his great year last year but he’s regressed into the player he truly is. I don’t even mean that as an insult. He’s a great defensive player and backup infielder. The Braves have forced him into a role he doesn’t belong in because they were too cheap to grab a SS when a bunch of them were on the market in Swanson FA year.
They also need an OF, which should preferably be a big bat.
Do those 2 things and they should be good. I don’t know what to do about Murphy. He’s garbage like I said he would be but they’re stuck with that choice. Same with Olson who doesn’t suck like Murphy. He’s more mediocre who will absolutely age horribly with his swing mechanics. But again no one wanted to listen when Freeman hit the market. Everyone praised getting a younger 1B. But the Braves made their bed with those 2 trades and extensions so here we are.
They have 2 moves to make though. Get a real SS and a big bat for the corner OF. Bonus points if retaining Fried. How much of this will they do? None of it…. Mark my words.
Doubt Strider is back next season and even if he is, he won’t be nearly as good after multiple arm injuries. Right now its basically Sale, Lopez, and Schwellenbach and the first 2 guys are huge injury risks. They need to bring in 2 SP.
Strider will be back as soon as April according to him.
Add another good starter. Would love for it to be Fried but he’s Dodgers bound. Never know what the health will be of Sale and potentially Strider coming off surgery. Waldrep and Anderson etc are depth.
Fried can go. We are good on pitching. Bring Back Ian Anderson next year to replace him. Save the money and go after Willy Adames to help strengthen our lineup. With a healthy lineup and Adames in place or Arcia, Could easily have the best team in baseball next season.
Anderson hasn’t had a successful MLB start in 3 years. AJSS, Waldrep, Hackenburg, and Burkhalter probably have as good if not a better chance to claim the 5th and 6th rotation spots.
Max will get an offer from the Braves I am sure, whether Max accepts the offer is up to Max. I can certainly seeing this play out like Swanson and Freeman.
Having seen Drue Hackenberg, I have high hopes that he’s going to be very very good, Waldrep can also be good. AJSS seems to be still refining the art, as he was tipping his pitches unfortunately by flaring the glove on his change, and Padres scouts had noted that in their ‘cheat sheets’ and Padres hitters were all over it. I still would’ve given Anderson the ball, he had the most experience and also a 1.59 era v Padres.
I am unsure what they’ll do with Laureano and Kelenic, and then there’s Merrifield and Urshela to think about as back up infield depth.
Jackson’s option won’t be picked up, but they might re-sign him on lesser money. I believe Charlie may retire, and it will be interesting to see what Jesse does. Daysbel did very well out of the pen, and Holmes was reasonably solid when called upon. Hopefully Baldwin sees some game time or some looks in 25. I believe things are looking up as long as the Braves see nothing like they did this year. You have to say it was a huge accomplishment to make the post season given the fact that no other MLB team has ever made the playoffs in a year where 3 of their Opening Day starters missed the final 35+ regular-season games (plus the playoffs) on the IL. Acuna, Riley, Strider, plus significant IL’s from Albies and Murphy. If they contemplate getting rid of Arcia the only guy I’d go for is probably Ha Seong Kim, excellent defender and can hit probably as well as Arcia with a better approach and discipline at the plate, along with being an excellent base runner and base stealer, and Seitzer could probably get more out of him, but I doubt it will happen due to the Boras factor..
They won’t sign a replacement for Fried. They will give a prospect or 2 a shot and they will be fine. The Braves know how to develop starting pitchers as good as anyone. Ask my Metsies.
Gray is available for. St Louis
The Braves have a real payroll problem blocking them from any reliable set of options. Subtracting Fried and Morton (plus the lesser amounts spent this year of on guys like Duvall) still leaves them near the CBT line if they exercise the options on Ozuna, D’Arnaud and Bummer. They still have an OF holes, 2 new starter holes. Yes, they could sign a FA or two, but if it’s for more than a year, move forward to 2026, when they’ve got fairly expensive options for Sale, Bummer, Johnson, Albies and Arcia and Ozuna is a FA. And a 3 year FA bumps them into 2027, when they have the third largest committed budget of any MLB team and Sale, Albies, Lopez and Acuna are all FAs or gone, as well as every reliever.
Replacing Morton and Fried with even mid tier FA pitchers commanding 2 or 3 year contracts creates the same payroll problem as extending Fried at his market price (probably 4/$100m or so). All of the long, high price extensions (Riley, Olson, Strider. Murphy, Harris and Acuna), combined with the age of Sale and Lopez, simply leaves them with no options in even the mid tier of the FA market when multiple teams are ready to offer those guys 3 or 4 year contracts at a $15-$20 AV.
Gerrit Cole has an opt out after this season with 4 yrs @36 each. If he does opt out, maybe AA could get creative and offer extra year to him 5 yrs total for 200m, BUT see if he’d be willing to take 20 a yr over 5 while the other 100m is deferred over the following 10yrs. May have to add a signing bonus of 10m over his first 2 years with us due each spring.
Burnes is probably looking for 7-8 years and I can’t blame him, I don’t see the braves giving a pitcher that kind of length. Snell could be an option if Fried walks for maybe a 5 yr deal at 26-27m per yr.
Cole isn’t leaving New York.
Let someone else sign Fried and his postseason failures with him. I’m grateful for g6 of the WS, but outside of that and a couple of other starts he’s been terrible. His ERA is now over 5 in 67 playoff innings. I’ve always thought he was going back to his homeland in the west coast. Dodgers, Padres, Giants? Maybe Angels if there aren’t any top tier bats available to sign monster contracts to.