On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.
The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.
What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.
Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.
Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.
With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.
Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.
getrealgone2
Elder should not even be remotely in the equation.
Bucsfan4ever
Anybody but Bryce “Nuclear Meltdown” Elder
Braves Butt-Head
Well you draft all these pitchers with top picks for so many years it’s time some of them show up and take a rotation spot. Otherwise then why did you draft them in the 1st place and continue to neglect middle infield a position that has needed attention for 4 years. When we knew Dansby was more than likely going to leave and Arcia was a band-aid that overachieved in the 1st half of 2023. But he have nothing at SS really.
I love AA but the long-term handling of the SS position and trading away William Contreras are his worst moves/ decisions as GM.
I Believe We Can Win
How has middle infield needed attention for years with Albies giving you about 10% better than league average production, Swanson giving them league average offense with good defense, Arcia giving them league average offense last 2 years before cratering this year.
Middle infield isn’t really the Braves issues all this time. The OF. Different story. acuna injury troubles constantly replacing guys. Really no stability in the OF last 3-4 years
Rishi
They have filled almost every position internally for years. These pitchers he speaks of are very young. He makes it sound like none of those pitching prospects have showed up and that the ones remaining are 25 or something. Arcia has filled in admirably defensively. You can’t be above average everywhere. They draft pitching so they don’t have to add expensive free agents. It’s hard to draft a quality SS with low picks and expect for sure that it will pan out anyway. I also disagree on the Contreras trade. It’s one bad offensive season from Murphy with elite defense and game calling. He is one of the reasons everyone in this rotation and bullpen has outperformed what you would expect.
Braves Butt-Head
I didn’t say any of these pitchers are going to be busts but some will be that’s the percentages but at some point you got to go to the future and quit giving Charlie Morton 20 mil a season for 12 million worth of production. And Fried isn’t resigning someone will pay him $150 mil so yea it’s time we get something out of these young out here we have drafted so far Schwellenbach has paid off and Strider before him but there’s 2 spots that will be open and possibly 3 if Strider takes longer than expected and this team doesn’t pay for big name free agents so it’s either trade or some prospects will have to step up.
FletcherFan
Word on the playground is that my O’s are going to be huge sellers as they enter their next rebuild. Does Dean Kremer and his 4.32 FIP interest you? The powerhouse Orioles are overflowing with #4/#5 starters!
₩arkMohlers
@FF Big L said it best
“To be sittin clean, in the mean beams is every teams dream
Big L’s a (Dean)Kreme(r) Fiend, with more green than Springsteen”
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
What ever happened to Ian Anderson and huascar ynoa?
billw-2
Ian was actually decent in the minors, Ynoa , I just looked up, had a 6.27 ERA in 29 innings…
Citizen1
Fried injured before last years playoff and Braves lose. Fried in playoffs and Braves still lose. Hunscar Noah was injured rehabbing in the minors as was Anderson. I expected both to be called up this year but didn’t happen. Noah has a bargain 850k arbitration price. Braves don’t really need a lot of rotation pieces if these guys can pitch.
₩arkMohlers
Don’t give up on Allan Winans!
billw-2
Why would we have Spencer Strider early next year? this was his 2nd TJ…people don’t come back from those as quickly…DeGrom only made 3 starts this year. ( I know he’s older, but still)
mlb1225
Strider didn’t have Tommy John surgery, rather he had internal brace surgery in mid-April this year, which typically doesn’t take as long to recover from compared to TJ surgery. deGrom had TJ surgery and it was in mid-June.
bravesfan
I think this year showed just how important elite pitching is for an organization and how you can’t have too much of it. If it wasn’t for a few gambles that turned into gold and depth, the Braves would have been in huge trouble with all the injuries and disappearance of the offense. That said, Braves need to go get at least 1 proven strong starter in my humble opinion. Fried is my choice but I’d love them to spend for Burnes. BOTH in my fantasy land. But I’d love them to go get another gamble also. Regardless… have to replace max to some degree and absolutely must find a glove that can actually hit at short
Samuel
” If it wasn’t for a few gambles that turned into gold and depth, the Braves would have been in huge trouble with all the injuries and disappearance of the offense.”
bravesfan;
The Braves have one of the top-tier pitching coaching departments in MLB, led by Rick Kranitz. The O’s took their head pitching coach – Drew French – from the Braves last off-season.
–
They also have one of the best catchers in MLB – Sean Murphy – running that staff. (Backup catcher Travis d’Arnaud is OK working with pitchers, although not topnotch. He hits well though.)
The Braves make a high percentage of pitchers they bring in much better than they were previously.
Bucsfan4ever
They won’t spend for Fried or Burnes. Wacha would be a good choice. If Strider comes back anywhere near his 2023 form and Sale can stay healthy, a 2025 rotation of Strider, Sale, Schwellenbach, and Wacha would be strong. I think Lopez should go back to the bullpen and be a power arm there. Waldrep, Anderson, Smith-Shawver, and Drue Hackenberg all could be the other starter.
oscar gamble
Fried is gone.
D-Money
Bring back Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, and Rocker.
Blackpink in the area
If the Cardinals do a full tear down Sonny Gray makes a lot of sense for the Braves. He grew up not far from Atlanta and he would be a great top of the rotation guy to go along with Sale and Strider. I imagine Gray has negative value given his contract so Cardinals could pay some and get a prospect back.
TradeAcuna
Please no more Fried. He is far from an ace and not worth another investment. Don’t bring back Morton either. Time for a makeover. This includes trading Albies as well, and letting go Arcia, Kelenic, and Duvall. Trade your overrated young pitchers other than SS.
Bring back Urshela and keep Soler. Please bring back TD.
Speaking of Albies, really amazes me how no one talks about how ****y he is as a hitter and a baserunner.