The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.
While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.
With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.
Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.
That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).
While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.
How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
Very Barry
The faster everyone including the Cardinals admit that they are headed into a rebuild, the faster the path to this organization getting back on track. Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson should all be dumped to get the salary relief. You won’t get great kids back, but you will begin the first step in the process of having a depth of talent. Free agent signings should be all turnaround candidates that you are looking to flip at the deadline. More kids. Same with bats. Turnaround candidates. Eloy Jimenez?? Yoan Moncada??? League minimum salary guys???
bloomquist4hof
I think they could get a decent haul this off-season if they went that route and waiting a year could reduce hat but do think there’s enough talent to surprise next year and get that with the modern playoff format even a mediocre win team has a chance to luck into a playoff spot. That has made the old fashioned tear down and rebuild far less popular.
Wizcards
I agree with bloom, they might be able to surprise the league kind of like the Mets this season that originally weren’t prioritizing contention heading into 2024. It’s a big maybe but depends on how much they trade away this offseason and if there can be internal improvement from the offense and if young starters can be competitive
Big whiffa
Reds will take Gray off yalls hands !
letitbelowenstein
Gibson and Lynn should share the nickname “Pins and Needles”. Those are two guys who, when they’re announced as starters, I never feel like “Well, this one’s in the bag”. They need a frontline starter, though I doubt they’ll be in on Burnes. Maybe a guy like Pivetta could help them.
A'sfaninLondonUK
Erm, doesn’t Sonny Gray have a no trade agreement? And given the backloaded contract, a lot of teams aren’t going to think $32.5 million offers value even though he is very good. I do think the Cards might have to eat money and/or prospects…
Blackpink in the area
I was thinking Cardinals eat 20 million he goes to the Braves and Cardinals get Shawver or Waldrep back.
Blackpink in the area
Stop letting the Cubs fan write articles about the Cardinals. Please.
Lynn and Gibson suck. The team is trying to get younger the last thing they need is Lynn and Gibson around blocking the young pitchers that have earned a shot. Mikolas and Matz also suck but the team is stuck with them.
I would like to see Gray or Fedde traded.
Gray/Fedde
Mikolas
Pallante
Matz
McGreevy
With Liberatore still deserving of a shot and Kloffenstein and Graceffo ready soon.
2025 isn’t going to be a good year. The team needs to accept at least that and start planning for the future. No more old veterans blocking young players.
SewaldSwansonSwoon
Gibby is an excellent mentor and enthusiastic clubhouse presence for young teams.
Blackpink in the area
The Cardinals have Mikolas and Matz around as mentors. It’s time to let the kids play.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Gray
Pallante
Fedde
Mikolas
McGreevy
Matthews
No reason to pick up options for Gibson or Lynn. Matz needs to go, too.
Burleson is the strong side platoon 1B
Contreras is the full time DH
Herrera and Pages split catching load
Trade Helsley for two top 100 prospects at mid-season if out of contention. Trade Gorman to Angels.
Blackpink in the area
Matz and Mikolas both need to go but they can pitch until July when Matthews and someone else is ready.
Contreras needs to catch. I would be OK trading him but not a lot of good fit out there.
startinglineup
They should call up tink hence and quinn mat
thews.
Use hence in brief stints, up to 5 ip or maybe as a reliever. Use quinn as a starter
That would solidify a lot. And make figuring out the rest easier
Blackpink in the area
Hence isn’t ready yet. Matthews will be up around July i imagine. Matthews replaces Matz or Mikolas that’s really simple. Hence is probably looking at mid 2026.
startinglineup
Hmm im not disagreeing with you he may not be ready
But hence started in aa this year. Was dominant. Then had arm troubles in the summer
Had he not had arm troubles i think he would have at least gotten a taste this year
Question to me is whether matthews leap frogs him. Looks likely now as a sp
But maybe not as a reliever. Hence could be a good reliever now but im not sure they want another cmart or hicks. Probably want a definitive role to stick him in
Blackpink in the area
If Hence had a healthy season in 2024 I think he would be called up in mid 2025. But with his health problems I think he gets pushed back another year. They don’t want to use him as a reliever at all and I am happy about that.
StlSwifty
As a cards fan, I’d like to see us give all our youngsters a chance this year. Let em learn through having consistent playing time. Stock the farm by trading Helsley and co. and let go of anyone that’s older than Oli Marmol lol. I think the fans are ready for the transition.
Also, it would be a true test of Oli Marmols managing ability.
Ol’ Uncle Charlie
Keep Sonny
Re-sign Gibson
Start Pallante
Start MCGreevey
Keep Fedde as insurance to hopefully/probably trade him if another young starter emerges.
Carry three catchers. Keep Contreras. Give Hererra a start per week while also converting him to a low-buck DH/1B. Pagès as primary second catcher.
Trade Gorman or keep him at triple A (does he still have options?) to try to get him going as possible DH, but not hopeful. Saggesse is everyday 2nd baseman.
Keep Burleson in left, Nootbarr in center and Walker in right.
Keep Arenado at third, but definitely looking to trade him, although that doesn’t look like it’s going to give the team much in return, given his age, contract and diminished power.
Keep Donovan and Siani on the bench.
Need a legit 3-hole hitter/1B, but seems inevitable the Cards aren’t going to shop for a good player, unfortunately.
All that would still give a good number of young/cheap guys a good look and reduce payroll, while still giving the team a decent chance to win.
Buffett
There payroll is going to get cut in half by 2026.
Ol’ Uncle Charlie
@Buffet
Last year’s payroll was $175m. My guess is the payroll will get slashed to $140m, not $87m, as you suggest. Letting Goldy, Lynn and Kittredge go would get payroll down by about $40m. Some players will get bumps up in arbitration, but that cost should be fairly minimal.
Buffett
Key word, by 2026
Ol’ Uncle Charlie
There’s zero chance the Cardinal payroll is $87m for 2026.
DarkSide830
This team is badly in need of a rebuild.
Blackpink in the area
Not really. I am fine if they want to do that but there are plenty of teams that are worse off.
Mike56
Keep Donovan on the bench? He’s their best player. Evidently you haven’t watch Cards much. He plays everyday somewhere
Ol’ Uncle Charlie
@mike56
Donovan is an incredibly valuable, versatile player on the bench who will get a lot of playing time, most likely.
But at the end of the day, his league average range, glove, speed, and subpar arm make him most suited for the bench. He’s under club control and has substantially less upside than Saggesse, who is likely to play every day at second base.
If Burleson and Nootbarr can stay on the field/produce, Donovan isn’t likely to start at any one position next year. But he will get a lot of playing time as he’s moved around the field.
Masyn Winn is our best player, not Donovan.
Blackpink in the area
Here is a mock trade i was working on last night.
Helsley
Romero
Arenado
For
LeMahieu
Dominguez
Yankees turn LeMahieu into a legit 3b and get 2 big pieces for the pen. Cardinals get a top prospect who hopefully is as good as the hype around him is.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Uhh no. In ’25, Jazz is very affordable and stays at 3B. Ditto for Luke Weaver for $2.5MM who replaces All-Star Clay Holmes. Middle relievers are easy to find in free agency and the Yankees have a great pitching coach to help pick them out. Trade Dominguez for a one-year rental stud closer? What in world would the Cards do with DJL for two more years??
T-Bone22
Keep Gray as a mentor and leader.
Do not re sign Gibson and Lynn.
Play Gray, Feddle, Mikolas, Pallante, Mc Greevy (or Liberatore or Matz)
Trade Arenado for whatever we can and try Gorman at third (he has no trade value for now)
Trade Hesley.
Try to trade for Jake Burger (St Louis Native) to play 1st base (or 3B and DH) and bring some RH pop.
Play Donovan 2B, Wynn SS, Herrera and Pages C, Contreras DH (and occasionnaly catching), Burleson LF/1B/DH, Nootbar CF, RF, LF, Walker RF,LF
Have Saggese as utility player and Ciani as OF insurance
Fill the relief corp with young pitchers and have Matz as closer.
Not great but not awfull easer. Less expansive and give to the young pitchers and player like Scott to get experience at AAA
CardsFan57
Decline both options if saving money is the goal. There are plenty of rotation options available. Try to trade as many over 30 players as possible then start rebuilding the team for 2026.
anotherdamncardinalfan
Hence? Mathews? Hello?
Mike56
Uncle Charlie- yea Winn probably has better upside and very good athlete . I’m just saying keep Donny in lineup somewhere. He can handle anything defensively and he’s a grinder . Gives you great at bats .
Blackpink mentioned Dominguez . A lot of hype over his bat. May be a great power hitter in time. His defense is scary. Saw couple games he played kinda looked lost in LF. Him in LF and Walker in RF probably wouldn’t work