Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.
If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.
It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.
Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.
Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.
Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.
The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.
Leave Merrill in Cf
Leave Bogaerts at ss
Leave cronenworth at 2B
Arraez as primary DH
Option 1
Trade for O Hearn and Mateo of the Orioles. Put O Hearn at 1B, Mateo can play utility role.
Option 2
Sign Goldschmidt to play 1B. Sign or trade for a back up ss.
I’d bring back Peralta and Solano and let them platoon LF. Profar may want too much money
Do the Pads Q.O. Profar? He may accept and I don’t see anything in his peripherals that says he can’t repeat his performance.
No on Pro for QO. Can’t risk at 21 M 2023 Profar.
I’d be good with a creative – the opt outs again – deal to bring him back though at 8-10 AAV.
I never complained about his last contract but I’d complain if they go overboard after 1 solid year out of 10 and he started regressing the last 2 months even.
Profar might get the QO amount of money, just over 3 years.
@ yankee bleacher creature
Do you see anything in his actual history that this wasn’t his career year and he won’t be turning back into a pumpkin at midnite?
IBWCW – I’ve been on the Goldie signing for about 2 years now. The Arreaz trade may impact that as having both of them on 2025 roster isn’t ideal use of money.
All about a cheap deal for Peralta and/or Solano.
Go for Adames or Kim on a 2 year opt out contract.
I’ve seen Mateo in SD – no thanks.
Cupboard is almost bare (except for untouchable 2) for much trading –
Save what we got for deadline.
I agree with keeping Merrill in CF but may be easier said than done depending on Adames and Kim decisions.
Adames is NOT signing a 2-year contract, so strike that from your list. I doubt Kim will sign that kind of contract but maybe with his injury and questionable start date. However, the two cannot be compared. Kim is not a productive bat.
I guess I should have paused between the 2. Sign Adames at what he commands or Kim on the 2 year.
BTW, I wasn’t comparing them so get off it.
They are the 2 best options for SS in FA and if not one then the other is the point.
Relax Francis.
There is a zero % chance adames signs a 2 year opt out deal. Perhaps Kim would if he can’t secure a long term deal. Given the lack of shortstops available Kim will still likely find a 4-5 year deal. The big questions for the padres is will Kim be offered a deal of 50m+ on say 4 years. The second big question is would they be okay with him back if he accepted the QO which I don’t think they would be. So there is risk in offering Kim a QO which leans me to them not QO’ing Kim. He could still be brought back if he doesn’t demand a high price.
So I expect Kim to be gone and for Xander to stay at shortstop until DeVries is ready.
If that happens the padres will likely look at 1b/dh as a target asking with LF. Though the padres biggest need will be starting pitching with Musgrove out all year.
I think we all said that about Snell, Chapman, and others last year.
I cant think of any top healthy free agent take a 2 year deal at 29 … before 30 compared to even 30 makes a huge difference on the years that will be offered.
Roll – you should realize that Kim isn’t “healthy” as indicated by the article on his surgery where he may not even be available until May.
The entire premise is he might take a 2 year deal with an opt out because the 4 year higher AAV offers may not materialize.
Of course if they do, then he will take one.
Yeah it’s definitely well within the possibility that Kim could do a two year deal with an opt out after one. Even has a boras client for several of his guys have done this.
Adames is definitely getting a long term deal unless boras overplays his hand is unsigned in late March.
@longtime
“Go for Adames OR Kim on a 2 year opt out contract”
Why yes i do hence why which is one reason why i said HEALTHY. You should realized the word the word OR means applying to both in the same sentence, ie adames on a 2 year opt out contract or kim on a 2 year opt out contract.
guess you should realize it doesnt take a long time to understand how the word or works <3
You should also realize people read through multiple comments and type replies so they dont see replies as they are typing and not refreshing the board after each letter typed
Funny – guy that can’t use punctuation marks or proper capitalization giving English grammar lessons!
Cronenworth platoon incoming he’ weak against lefties . .203/ .276/ .255 showed in playoffs dodgers brought in leftie to face Merrill and crone .
Goldy is done, I’d rather platoon Arraez and Solano at 1B.
Cronenworth has not done enough to earn a starting role. I get that he has a long term contract but he’s OPS+ 89 and 99 the past two seasons with 3.0 total WAR. Platoon with Kim depending on price?
And Arraez at DH severely diminishes his value. 106 OPS+ with no power seems like a bad idea for your everyday DH on a contender. But I don’t know where else you put him.
They better hope Bogaerts turns it around, too, because that contract is quickly turning into one of the worst in the league.
Rct, Kim is not a platoon candidate. Your points on Cro and Arraez are valid but Cro has great defense so, he plays somewhere on right side, and like you said, no where else to put Arraez so, DH or 1b if Cro is at 2b.
Hope they can get Cro a little fix in off-season for his splits to get a boost to his stats and all is well. He doesn’t need much.
Anywhere around 2.0 WAR / 105 Wrc+. He has a long term deal but not really a high AAV.
Seems to me Kim was most valuable as a utility player. Once he became the Padres everyday SS his production fell.
Mateo ain’t coming back not would I want to come back and play anywhere full-time for the Friars…
Tim Anderson is the call. A middle infield of Anderson and Bogaerts could be the best in the NL next year.
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little… yup, I did. TA can kick rocks!
I think what Terry Turnbuckle meant to say is that, “alphabetically,” a middle infield of Anderson and Bogaerts could be best in NL next year. That would hinge on whether Atlanta has Arcia and Albies. And Anderson, talent-wise, is even below Arcia.
“Straight A’s & B’s, Dad!”
As a player you should always say you are accepting the QO. Just to avoid the borderline players from getting one, you stay with the team you know, must cases make a very nice one year contract you are not getting on the open market, bet on yourself and take away the QO. This is for players not making what the QO is in arbitration.
Besides you have 5 days to make up your mind,.Pocker face.
Kim wouldn’t have hired Boras if he didn’t want to get paid. That being said I think the Padres need to let him walk. Bogaerts can hold down SS for a year with a defense first backup.
Cronenworth is too good at 2B to waste him at 1B IMO. Arraez can handle it part time with an off season signing or even Profar taking some starts there too.
Re-signing Profar would be nice but only if he takes reasonable $$$. Just like the team likes his production, he needs to remember his best work has always come in San Diego. the last time he tried bailing it did not go well at all.
Agree. Agree. Agree.
Defensive Runs Saved
2023 – 2B – 4/1B – -2
2024 – 2B – 0/1B- -2
2023 – 2B – 1/1B – 1
2024 – 2B – 0/1B – 0
Which is Crone and which is Arraez?
I don’t care, I’ve watched both of them play defense and for anyone with two eyes and a brain that should be all it takes. Cronenworth’s ceiling is a gold glove, Arraez’s is not. The End.
99, eyes lie. Stats don’t. Cronenworth hasn’t been close to Gold Glove quality defense at 2B or 1B. It isn’t about what they do occasionally, its about what they do consistently.
Did the paychecks from the signings away from SD not cash?
Sure they did. They also lead to him getting DFA’d and having to take a near league minimum salary for 2024. Just throwing this out there, Kim joined the Boras camp, Profar has left it. Signing with the same agency as Machado and Tatis. Might be that he is ready to take reasonable $$$ to play where he is happy and successful.
If Kim is willing to take a two-year deal, he could be Milwaukee’s solution to losing Willy Adames. The Brewers would value his defense in their three-shortstop infield, would make better use of his pull power with a shorter left-field wall and would showcase him for a longer free-agent contract starting in 2027.
I think they should QO him. 4.3fWAR last year. He had a bad year and missed some time and still put up 2.6 this year. When he’s recovered he’s going to be about 3-4 WAR player per year and he’s going into his age 29 season so he’s still in his prime. Elite defender at a premium position.
I think him and Boras will turn down a QO to test the open market. Also I don’t get the Hoskins/Conforto deal comps. Hoskins best year was 2.4fWAR, HSK put up more than that in an off year. I think his worst case scenario is still a lot better than what Conforto and Hoskins got.
Yes, I QO HSK for sure if for no other reason than he hired Boras indicating he doesn’t plan to accept it.
Agree with QO’ing HSK. Crazy thought I had… he might actually accept it, “rehab” half the year and then put up some numbers before his “real” FA walk.
The timing is the key. He isn’t likely to accept it that early in the FA process with Boras as his rep.
That change strongly suggests that he wants to see the offers come in.
If QO deadline to accept ran into Spring training then couldn’t risk it.
Like most business decisions, there are risks for both sides.
Either way, I’d put the QO ball in Kim’s court. He has until mid-ish November to accept, and he may decline just to hit FA now. His prerogative and he’s earned it; I strongly suspect the Pads are “happy” with either answer and move forward with him in uniform or with an extra pick or they forgo the pick route entirely and summon up their own “winning” FA offer for him. He loves us, we love him… he might lean our direction when all the wine-ing and dining is done.
Yep that is the play. I think the window from offer to deadline is like a week. Anyone yearning for FA isn’t going to take it in that short window is my thought.
Maybe it was all a tactic to get the QO on table because he wants to stay at 21 m and then try FA – gonna find out.
I agree with a QO for Kim but for a different reason, because Boras will convince Kim to reject it.
I’m not sure that is a different reason. I’m saying he is already convinced that he will reject it so just get the draft pick.
It’s all cheese from the same wheel! That’s the likeliest outcome, I just wouldn’t be uber-surprised if he accepts.
Not really, Kim is going to get some “cheddar”, but you don’t want him sampling from the “blue”. Too cheesy?
Cheese Louise… well, I gouda take the good with the bad I guess!
Last off-season Acee and other media tied Padres to prove-a-loan cheese but their analysis was filled with holes bigger than in Swiss cheese. Smelled like Brie, a Muenster controversy!
If the Padres QO Kim he will absolutely accept it. He will not play in the majors until June and then next offseason he comes back with a half season of showing he is healthy and can throw under his belt and the QO not hanging over his head and lowering his price in FA.
The Padres likely won’t take the chance of paying $21 million for 3 months of Kim by tendering a QO.
Kim can want to return any time he wants, but I think saying late April or May to game action, meaning a rehab assignment, is more his agent speaking than his doctor. A typical time frame for a grade 3 SLAP labrum tear in the shoulder would put him in a return to baseball related activities in 30-32 weeks, so beginning of May to mid-May, and a rehab assignment in mid to late-June with a return to MLB game action around the ASG.
Interesting and seems more likely. I have him on my fantasy team for $6. I like him but also depends on where he signs and situation if I keep.
Yup, right now, I have him as ‘late”. I’d be surprised at a return prior to July, but he’s a pretty good gamble, imho.
For the record I would prefer Kim to Adames
I think HSK’s time in SD is done.
The one thing I don’t get is, why Kim waited so long to get the surgery??? He’s been out for a couple of months already
No way I would sign Kim unless it’s on a one year low base deal with incentives.
1) No one knows for sure how long he’ll be out. Of COURSE as a free agent he’s going to say he’s targeting a return as soon as possible and I’m sure Boras will give “updates’ in the offseason about how good he looks and how well his recovery is proceeding. Don’t believe a word of it.
2) No one knows what shape his arm will be when he returns. Not only does shortstop require a strong throwing arm, but they make off balance throws from different angles; that’s a recipe for trouble coming off shoulder surgery. And if his arm doesn’t play and you sign the player to an expensive contract, what do you do? Unless you have the luxury of moving him to 2B, you’re stuck. These two year pillow contacts are rarely appealing since the club takes all the risk, and the player has even LESS incentive come back early.
3) Kim’s bat wasn’t that spectacular this season, and now coming off shoulder surgery, AGAIN, you don’t know what you’re getting. Bellinger certainly tanked after a shoulder problem, Story has had his issues as well.
Quite frankly, I think Kim is going to have trouble finding a deal to his liking, and he may linger on the market until after Opening Day and he can show he’s 100% healthy.
Profar likely stays put in a reasonable 2-3 year deal.
Kim is gone.
Sign Solana and Peralta.
Move Bogaerts, chip in money.
Profar loves San Diego and its mutual. He accepted a $1 million deal to return in 2024. I doubt he tries to get every penny he can and more likely will want the longest deal possible. His one year of great play is not going to net him big bucks when the previous 3 were below league average with a 93 OPS+/1.7 WAR total.
Imho he will get something around 3/21 with an option year.
Pads Fan
Your valuation seems reasonable to me, but I believe some team, Padres or otherwise, will slightly overpay Profar based on 2024. So, if the dollars are as low as you suggest (and I think they’ll be a little higher than that) then I think Profar gets an opt out every year if he wants it. I am thinking three years at $9 million per year, with an opt out after each year, and back to the Friars.
Padres have shown they are willing to give players with questionable history a longer deal with opt outs every year to lower AAV. That seems like a reasonable thing for them to do. 4/24 with annual opt outs.
I think it will be a little higher, but we are pretty close to being on the same page.
There should not be a comma before “as well.”