Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.
If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.
It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.
Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.
Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.
Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.
The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.
I Believe We Can Win
Leave Merrill in Cf
Leave Bogaerts at ss
Leave cronenworth at 2B
Arraez as primary DH
Option 1
Trade for O Hearn and Mateo of the Orioles. Put O Hearn at 1B, Mateo can play utility role.
Option 2
Sign Goldschmidt to play 1B. Sign or trade for a back up ss.
I’d bring back Peralta and Solano and let them platoon LF. Profar may want too much money
YankeesBleacherCreature
Do the Pads Q.O. Profar? He may accept and I don’t see anything in his peripherals that says he can’t repeat his performance.
Longtimecoming
No on Pro for QO. Can’t risk at 21 M 2023 Profar.
I’d be good with a creative – the opt outs again – deal to bring him back though at 8-10 AAV.
I never complained about his last contract but I’d complain if they go overboard after 1 solid year out of 10 and he started regressing the last 2 months even.
BaseballisLife
Profar might get the QO amount of money, just over 3 years.
Longtimecoming
IBWCW – I’ve been on the Goldie signing for about 2 years now. The Arreaz trade may impact that as having both of them on 2025 roster isn’t ideal use of money.
All about a cheap deal for Peralta and/or Solano.
Go for Adames or Kim on a 2 year opt out contract.
I’ve seen Mateo in SD – no thanks.
Cupboard is almost bare (except for untouchable 2) for much trading –
Save what we got for deadline.
I agree with keeping Merrill in CF but may be easier said than done depending on Adames and Kim decisions.
Pete'sView
Adames is NOT signing a 2-year contract, so strike that from your list. I doubt Kim will sign that kind of contract but maybe with his injury and questionable start date. However, the two cannot be compared. Kim is not a productive bat.
Longtimecoming
I guess I should have paused between the 2. Sign Adames at what he commands or Kim on the 2 year.
BTW, I wasn’t comparing them so get off it.
They are the 2 best options for SS in FA and if not one then the other is the point.
Relax Francis.
Simm
There is a zero % chance adames signs a 2 year opt out deal. Perhaps Kim would if he can’t secure a long term deal. Given the lack of shortstops available Kim will still likely find a 4-5 year deal. The big questions for the padres is will Kim be offered a deal of 50m+ on say 4 years. The second big question is would they be okay with him back if he accepted the QO which I don’t think they would be. So there is risk in offering Kim a QO which leans me to them not QO’ing Kim. He could still be brought back if he doesn’t demand a high price.
So I expect Kim to be gone and for Xander to stay at shortstop until DeVries is ready.
If that happens the padres will likely look at 1b/dh as a target asking with LF. Though the padres biggest need will be starting pitching with Musgrove out all year.
Roll
I cant think of any top healthy free agent take a 2 year deal at 29 … before 30 compared to even 30 makes a huge difference on the years that will be offered.
Longtimecoming
Roll – you should realize that Kim isn’t “healthy” as indicated by the article on his surgery where he may not even be available until May.
The entire premise is he might take a 2 year deal with an opt out because the 4 year higher AAV offers may not materialize.
Of course if they do, then he will take one.
Simm
Yeah it’s definitely well within the possibility that Kim could do a two year deal with an opt out after one. Even has a boras client for several of his guys have done this.
Adames is definitely getting a long term deal unless boras overplays his hand is unsigned in late March.
Roll
@longtime
“Go for Adames OR Kim on a 2 year opt out contract”
Why yes i do hence why which is one reason why i said HEALTHY. You should realized the word the word OR means applying to both in the same sentence, ie adames on a 2 year opt out contract or kim on a 2 year opt out contract.
guess you should realize it doesnt take a long time to understand how the word or works <3
You should also realize people read through multiple comments and type replies so they dont see replies as they are typing and not refreshing the board after each letter typed
oldguyG
Cronenworth platoon incoming he’ weak against lefties . .203/ .276/ .255 showed in playoffs dodgers brought in leftie to face Merrill and crone .
Reynaldo's
Goldy is done, I’d rather platoon Arraez and Solano at 1B.
rct
Cronenworth has not done enough to earn a starting role. I get that he has a long term contract but he’s OPS+ 89 and 99 the past two seasons with 3.0 total WAR. Platoon with Kim depending on price?
And Arraez at DH severely diminishes his value. 106 OPS+ with no power seems like a bad idea for your everyday DH on a contender. But I don’t know where else you put him.
They better hope Bogaerts turns it around, too, because that contract is quickly turning into one of the worst in the league.
HiredGun23
Mateo ain’t coming back not would I want to come back and play anywhere full-time for the Friars…
TerryTurnbuckle
Tim Anderson is the call. A middle infield of Anderson and Bogaerts could be the best in the NL next year.
Gwynning
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little… yup, I did. TA can kick rocks!
pepenas34
As a player you should always say you are accepting the QO. Just to avoid the borderline players from getting one, you stay with the team you know, must cases make a very nice one year contract you are not getting on the open market, bet on yourself and take away the QO. This is for players not making what the QO is in arbitration.
Besides you have 5 days to make up your mind,.Pocker face.
99socalfrc
Kim wouldn’t have hired Boras if he didn’t want to get paid. That being said I think the Padres need to let him walk. Bogaerts can hold down SS for a year with a defense first backup.
Cronenworth is too good at 2B to waste him at 1B IMO. Arraez can handle it part time with an off season signing or even Profar taking some starts there too.
Re-signing Profar would be nice but only if he takes reasonable $$$. Just like the team likes his production, he needs to remember his best work has always come in San Diego. the last time he tried bailing it did not go well at all.
no soup for you
Agree. Agree. Agree.
JimOToole
If Kim is willing to take a two-year deal, he could be Milwaukee’s solution to losing Willy Adames. The Brewers would value his defense in their three-shortstop infield, would make better use of his pull power with a shorter left-field wall and would showcase him for a longer free-agent contract starting in 2027.
CNichols
I think they should QO him. 4.3fWAR last year. He had a bad year and missed some time and still put up 2.6 this year. When he’s recovered he’s going to be about 3-4 WAR player per year and he’s going into his age 29 season so he’s still in his prime. Elite defender at a premium position.
I think him and Boras will turn down a QO to test the open market. Also I don’t get the Hoskins/Conforto deal comps. Hoskins best year was 2.4fWAR, HSK put up more than that in an off year. I think his worst case scenario is still a lot better than what Conforto and Hoskins got.
Longtimecoming
Yes, I QO HSK for sure if for no other reason than he hired Boras indicating he doesn’t plan to accept it.
Gwynning
Agree with QO’ing HSK. Crazy thought I had… he might actually accept it, “rehab” half the year and then put up some numbers before his “real” FA walk.
Longtimecoming
The timing is the key. He isn’t likely to accept it that early in the FA process with Boras as his rep.
That change strongly suggests that he wants to see the offers come in.
If QO deadline to accept ran into Spring training then couldn’t risk it.
Like most business decisions, there are risks for both sides.
Gwynning
Either way, I’d put the QO ball in Kim’s court. He has until mid-ish November to accept, and he may decline just to hit FA now. His prerogative and he’s earned it; I strongly suspect the Pads are “happy” with either answer and move forward with him in uniform or with an extra pick or they forgo the pick route entirely and summon up their own “winning” FA offer for him. He loves us, we love him… he might lean our direction when all the wine-ing and dining is done.
BaseballisLife
Kim can want to return any time he wants, but I think saying late April or May to game action, meaning a rehab assignment, is more his agent speaking than his doctor. A typical time frame for a grade 3 SLAP labrum tear in the shoulder would put him in a return to baseball related activities in 30-32 weeks, so beginning of May to mid-May, and a rehab assignment in mid to late-June with a return to MLB game action around the ASG.
Perksy
Interesting and seems more likely. I have him on my fantasy team for $6. I like him but also depends on where he signs and situation if I keep.
chemfinancing
For the record I would prefer Kim to Adames
no soup for you
I think HSK’s time in SD is done.