The Guardians had a strong season in 2024 but came up just shy of the ultimate goal, falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. They now head into offseason mode with some questions to be answered. Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed a few interesting notes on X today, arguably with the most notable detail being that David Fry is going to see Dr. Keith Meister about his injured elbow. On top of that, Meisel also says that the entire coaching staff will be back unless someone gets a promotion with another club, and that the Guards have some degree of mutual interest in reunions with free agents Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and Austin Hedges.
Fry had a strong season in 2024, hitting 14 home runs in just 392 plate appearances and drawing walks at a 10.7% clip. That led to a .263/.356/.448 batting line and 129 wRC+. Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching, as the righty hitter had a massive 18.2% walk rate with the platoon advantage but just 5.3% without it, while nine of his 14 long balls were against southpaws. That created lopsided platoon splits with Fry slashing .287/.430/.566 against lefties for a 179 wRC+, while those numbers were .248/.302/.374 and a 94 wRC+ against righties.
While Fry was limited by those splits this year, he was also limited in another way. He is capable of playing various spots on the diamond, with some past experience at catcher and in the four corner spots. But in late June, he was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, as Meisel relayed on X at that time. In the latter half of the season, he mostly served as a designated hitter or pinch hitter, only rarely taking the field. He didn’t play a position other than first base after the month of July.
This left manager Stephen Vogt a little bit hamstrung down the stretch and into the postseason, as he couldn’t but Fry behind the plate. That left the Guards with a catching tandem of Bo Naylor and Hedges. Naylor had a strong year defensively but didn’t hit much. As for Hedges, he’s been on the extreme edge of that profile for a long time, having spent a decade in the big leagues as one of the worst hitters but one of the best backstops when the gear is on.
Fry’s elbow issue was manageable enough that he could hit through it, but it seems he might do a deeper dive now that the season is done. Meister is an elbow specialist who has performed dozens of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures. The fact that Fry is going to see him doesn’t mean that surgery is inevitable, as it will obviously depend on the condition of his elbow, but the meeting is notable nonetheless.
If surgery is required, he’d naturally be in line for a lengthy rehab. Position players can generally return from major elbow surgeries a bit quicker than pitchers, with hitting a possibility before throwing. Bryce Harper was one extreme example, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2022 and then being reinstated in May of 2023, less than six months later. Harper served as a DH for a while and then started playing some first base in July.
Of course, each case is unique and it’s not even a guarantee that going under the knife will be necessary, but that provides a rough guideline of something that could be considered. However, if such a scenario does come to pass, then it makes sense that Guardians would have some interest in bringing back Hedges.
As mentioned, Hedges is an extreme case of a glove-first backstop, which he showed again in 2024 by putting up a line of .152/.203/.220 in his 146 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 20 was the worst in the majors among guys with that many trips to the plate, except for Martín Maldonado’s 11 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances.
But Hedges has consistently been atop defensive leaderboards for catchers. He has 91 Defensive Runs Saved from 2015 to the present, easily the most in baseball with Roberto Pérez second with 75. He’s also tops in terms of Statcast Fielding Run Value for that stretch and second only to Yasmani Grandal in terms of FanGraphs’ framing metric. If Fry is set to miss some time next year, it would make sense to have Hedges come back and share the catching duties with Naylor, at least until Fry is once again an option behind the plate. Hedges signed for $4MM coming into this year and is likely in line for a pay cut, as his hitting in 2024 was below even his own low standards.
As for the other free agents, it’s understandable that Cleveland would be interested in bringing them back as they are all starting pitchers. The Guardians have long been known for their ability to grow rotation options on trees but struggled in that department in 2024. Bieber required Tommy John surgery while pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and others struggled to post decent results.
That led to the club in the unusual position of having to find midseason additions. They signed Boyd, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, to a major league deal in June. He was still on the injured list at the trade deadline when they acquired Cobb and added him into the mix.
Both of those two and Bieber are now heading into free agency. The Cleveland rotation for 2025 projects to be fronted by Tanner Bibee with plenty of question marks after that. Ben Lively posted a 3.81 earned run average in 2024 but that was despite a low strikeout rate of 18.7%. He may have been helped by a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side. His 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest he may have difficulty repeating that ERA. Gavin Williams is a bit of the inverse, as he had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 but with a low 66.9% strand rate, leading to a 3.67 FIP and 4.19 SIERA.
Beyond those three, it gets real murky. Joey Cantillo had a 4.89 ERA in his first major league action but did so with a 9.2% walk rate around league average. Since he’s walked 13.4% of minor leagues faced since the start of 2021 and was at 15% on the farm in 2024, it might not be wise to expect him to keep up that level of control. McKenzie and Allen had ERAs above 5.00 both in the majors and minors this year.
In short, bringing in starting pitching is a logical plan for this offseason. Mutual interest between the pitchers and the club is nice but a fair price will likely be required in each case. Boyd has been injured a lot in recent years but is going into free agency on a high note. He posted a 2.72 ERA with the Guards down the stretch, along with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate, then had a 0.77 ERA in his three playoff outings. He could perhaps parlay that strong finish into a solid two-year deal in free agency and will likely be looking to maximize his guarantee after so many injury absences in his career.
Bieber and Cobb will have less momentum in terms of their earning power. As mentioned, Bieber had Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season and will be slated to miss at least the early parts of the 2025 season. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John sometimes sign two-year deals, but those guys are usually on a path to miss most or all of the first season in those cases. Since Bieber went under the knife in April, he could perhaps play a significant role in 2025 and might try to return to the open market a year from now, either by signing a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out.
Cobb is coming off an injury-marred season that saw him throw just 22 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He came into 2024 recovering from hip surgery and eventually battled through shoulder discomfort as well as fingernail/blister issues on his pitching hand before his season was ended by a lower back strain. Now 37 years old and coming off that year, he’ll have to settle for a fairly modest deal, perhaps heavy with incentives.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $95MM payroll in 2025, which is less than $10MM shy of their 2024 number. That might not leave them a lot to work with this winter unless they’re planning on a notable spending increase. With the club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group now done and MLB taking over in that department, they may have less TV money coming and may not have much appetite for a big bump in the budget.
However, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas are each slated for notable salaries in their respective final seasons of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Naylor for $12MM and Thomas for $8.3MM. The Guardians often trade notable players before they reach free agency, with Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer being some recent examples. Perhaps they would consider the same with Naylor and/or Thomas as a way of freeing up money while also perhaps bolstering the rotation that way. Any free agent pursuits might also hinge on how that market plays out for them.
The Guardians are a fun team to watch. It’d be nice to see them try to get better instead of going backwards.
I was not aware that Bieber was a FA. The RS would have to check the medicals, but assuming everything is reasonable, they should invite him to Fenway.
I wonder what Bieber would want for four years, in his less-than-ideal bargaining position.
Give it to him. Four years is short for a good pitcher entering FA. A plus, if confirmation of his recover was as expected, is that TJS isn’t hanging over him. Often when a player follows through that surgery, they revitalize themselves with mental, physical, and baseball prep they wouldn’t otherwise have had during the grind of the season. Obviously there are others who fail, I think being injury prone candidates can be identified by set-backs or other litnany of injuries. Bieber doesn’t have a track record like that.
Bieber doesn’t have a track record like that.
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I also like the fact that CL didn’t trade him. They trade everyone, as the article mentions. My guess is that they like Beiber a lot more than some of the others, and I trust their judgement.
They didn’t trade him because he got hurt before they had the opportunity. If he had been healthy he’d be on another team right now signed to a long term cintract
I think Cleveland recognized that they didn’t have the same pitching depth this year and really needed to hang on. His value was down a bit at last years deadline too. They cashed out on Civale.
I’d like the O’s to grab Bieber though. His price will be depressed coming off injury and the upside is high.
There is going to be some delay in Bieber’s return that will make his value tied to the later seasons in the contract. Orioles will prefer an option without delays, hence why Red Sox have been floated more directly as they are more project than compete now. Long term it may be an ideal contract for the Orioles but with the owner’s recent comments of urgency, it hard to imagine him paying someone who he waits for to play.
O’s need long term starters. They aren’t going to solely push chips in for next year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see interest in Bieber.
Eflin is a FA after next season. Beyond that it’s G-Rod, Kremer, and Bradish. There’s not much minor league pitching depth. If they think Bieber could contribute late next season—wouldn’t shock me.
The Mets are going to sign Bieber. They have no problem overpaying a player coming off injury a little extra money or an extra year.
Jake Rogers had TJ a few years ago and missed a whole year plus trying to get his throwing arm in shape. It turns out that catchers throw at all sorts of weird angles necessitating a longer recovery than other position players. As a bat-first C-DH-1B, maybe fry doesn’t catch next year and rehabs his throwing during the 2025-26 offseason.
Whenever a player talks to Neal elattrache or Keith meister then they probably have no more elbow
See ya in mid 2025 or 2026! (Unless your name is Bryce Harper)
A certain Game 1 starter would like to have a word with you.
Fry might not be a catcher again. At least not until 2026 if he goes under the knife. Lane Thomas is gone. No way they pay him. Naylor probably traded. I don’t see them going over 100m considering the current broadcasting situation.
Trading away Naylor and Thomas aka half of your already lacking offense makes sense…
Then again it is Cleveland. This is coming from a Cleveland fan
Rays do the same thing.
At least Cleveland kept j-ram, but who else? He’s had no co-star since lindor
Reminds me of the Red Sox and how they chose devers and not mookie
JoRam took a huge discount to stay with CLE. I can’t think of many examples similar to him aside from Tony Gwynn. Both gave up huge sums of $ to stay where they were. For Gwynn it was his hometown and likely Mr Padre will always be player most synonymous with the franchise. For JoRam this isn’t even his home country let alone CLE not his hometown. Truly amazing for both sacrificing that kind of $. Just amazing in JoRam’s situation as he did not have the connection to his teams city that Gwynn had. I hope he’s rewarded decades from now with a generation of adult CLE and MLB baseball fans who find JoRam synonymous with the franchise.
With the RS, it was more a matter of choosing Devers over Bogaerts. Betts left after 2020, while Devers was extended for 2024-
Trading guys is part of the cycle. There are some interesting young guys like Martinez, Noel, and DeLauter. I’l; be curious how they proceed, and then there are all those 35/40 grade guys they throw out there to gamble on break outs or soak up innings.
They’re off season to do list? Sign Corbin Burns and Juan Soto to long term contracts. Oh wait. Looking at wrong teams list. They try to trade Naylor and Clase like they did last season and sign Austin Hedges and then see what they have
The Clase trade rumors were probably overblown. He’s not going anywhere
Trade Proposal –
Mariners receive: Stephen Kwan
Guardians receive: Bryce Miller & Dominic Canzone
Mariners slot Kwan into their OF and lead off spot. DH becomes a rotating role led primarily by Arozarena with the other OFs and Cal taking the rest of the reps. The Mariners OF defense with Kwan, Rodriguez and Robles would rival the Jays for best in baseball. Mariners call up Hancock to take the 5th slot with Evans, Morales and Garcia fighting to be the next in line.
Guardians slot Miller at the top of their rotation and Canzone offers a potential LF replacement with tons of power.
overrating kwan by a mile.
For the M’s he’d be an ideal fit. A high contact lefty with a career .359 OBP and sub 10% k rate. He doesn’t still a ton of bases, but is efficient on the base paths and likely could/should push to get more steals. Defensively he is likely to receive his 3rd straight gold glove in left field.
Giving up Miller would obviously hurt a lot given the extra 2 years of team control. However, the Mariners window is now and it’s easier to get pitchers to go there than hitters. Also, Kwan wouldn’t add too much to their payroll this year in Arb 1, so they’d still have flexibility to address 2B
No, he’s not ideal. Low K% means he relies on beating BABIP (which is why he had such a bad second half in ’24). The biggest issue that players had in TMobile was the suppression of singles and doubles. These factors are not ideal together.
Ignoring the field factors limitations, the team has Arozarena and Robles in the corners. It makes adding Kwan not a priority to improving the team. They’d be better off addressing 2B directly but that doesn’t mean they need to trade out of the rotation.
It’s just lazy to trade using the Mariner’s young players in the rotation. DiPoto is usually way more creative with his actual moves.
Randy is a lackluster defender. If he moves to DHing more that is beneficial to the team.
As a Mariners fan, I’d prefer not to deal from the rotation. However, Kwan is one of very few who I think would be worth it.
Also, Kwan, unlike Arraez, still walks a lot and has immense value outside of his bat. Also, someone who drags ABs to be 6+ pitches consistently is valuable, even if not in the final product.
True, Arozarena’s defense is trash. And maybe Kwan works against pitch counts, plus more total bases.
However, its small potatoes to the structural issues Kwan would create to the lineup. As of the now they’re unbalanced, Kwan would push it further from ideal balance, despite his positives.
Miller might also be overrated. He has huge H/A splits.
As much as I like a hometown kid like Canzone, I don’t see the Guardians trading Kwan
They’d be better trading for Canzone with a prospect or a reliever.
I’m not sure the M’s would give him up for that. If they don’t bring in another OFer in trade, he is likely their 4th OFer on Opening Day.
He’s a 40 grade valued prospect, what’s the hold up? Obviously the two sides need to find benefits, but that assumption was implied.
The Mariner’s don’t have anyone else in their system to be that 4th/5th OFer and Canzone is still on the minimum and has an option, so no rush to dump him for someone to add to the bullpen pile.