The Braves announced their roster for the Wild Card series today and it does not include left-hander Chris Sale. The club is going with an even split of 13 pitchers and position players, the latter group including two catchers, five infielders and six outfielders.
Sale had an excellent bounceback season in 2024 and could be awarded a Cy Young trophy in a few weeks, but the campaign ended on a frustrating note. He hasn’t taken the mound since September 19 against the Reds. In that outing, Sale’s velocity was down and he hasn’t pitched since. Up until yesterday, it seemed as though the club was just holding Sale to see if they would need him for a do-or-die game, otherwise hoping to hold him back for the first game of the Wild Card round.
Going into yesterday’s double-header, which was necessitated after two midweek games between the Mets and Atlanta were delayed by Hurricane Helene, both clubs needed a victory to secure a playoff spot. Spencer Schwellenbach started Game 1, which the Mets went on to win 8-7. It was expected that Sale would take the ball for the second contest but the club then announced that Sale had been scratched with back spasms. The issue had flared up during that start against the Reds and he kept hoping to be able to return to the mound but it didn’t improve and then worsened on Sunday night, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X links).
Based on Sale being left off the Wild Card roster, it can be assumed that the club doesn’t expect him to be game ready in the next few days. As mentioned, he is having a great season and undoubtedly would have been a part of their plans if he were healthy. He made 29 starts this year with a 2.38 earned run average, 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.
Without Sale, the club will have to get creative to survive against the Padres. Due to the aforementioned double-header situation, they used a lot of arms yesterday. Schwellenbach started the first game and Grant Holmes the second. Neither of those pitchers are on the roster either, which makes sense since they probably wouldn’t be available for a few days anyway.
Max Fried and Reynaldo López will likely start game two and three respectively, as they would be on normal rest for those contests following their last regular season outings. Charlie Morton started on Sunday and might not be available early in the series, though he is on the roster.
For today, the club may be looking to get some innings out of Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver. Neither has been a huge part of the club’s performance of late but they may need to step up while the bullpen is taxed and the club can’t turn to Sale, Schwellenbach or Holmes. Elder posted a 6.52 ERA in the big leagues this year while frequently being optioned to the minors. He had a solid 3.73 ERA in Triple-A this year but hasn’t pitched for the big league club since August 6.
Smith-Shawver only pitched once in the majors this year, a spot start of 4 1/3 innings in May. He has a 4.85 ERA in Triple-A on the year, though he finished somewhat strong with a 3.68 ERA over his last seven starts.
In addition to Elder and Smith-Shawver, Atlanta’s playoff roster consists of Fried, Lopez, Morton, Aaron Bummer, Jesse Chavez, Daysbel Hernández, Raisel Iglesias, Luke Jackson, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee. On the position player side, they have catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud, infielders Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Whit Merrifield, Matt Olson and Gio Urshela, as well as outfielders Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Ramón Laureano, Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler and Eli White.
TigerCam05
what
Skyrider123
He’s got back spasms he should be back if the Braves advance to the NLDS
letitbelowenstein
“Should” meaning “hopefully”. I’ve suffered from back spasms for decades. The mild ones can clear up in 3-4 days. But I’ve had bad ones that took nearly a month before I was even 80%. Wishing a speedy recovery for Chris.
Astros2017&22Champs
That’s a tall order. The Padres look World Series bound to me
DashaToushu
@Astros
“The Padres look World Series bound to me”
Why?
You mean the team that lost more games than the Dodgers this season and 2 out of 3 when they had a chance to tie them for the division lead?
fred-3
@DashaToushu they have 4 aces and a great bullpen. their offense is good and clutch as well. i say this as an a’s fan who lives in la and have gravitated towards the dodgers since moving here. they also have good karma, as it seems like they’re playing for the death of their owner, if you believe in stuff like that.
Astros2017&22Champs
Dodgers are a regular season team. I dont trust their rotation whatsoever. Ohtani is gonna have to carry them. My guy says the padres go on a run. But who knows
DashaToushu
@fred
So why did they lose 2 of 3 when they had a chance to win the division?
DashaToushu
@Astros
Why did the Padres lose 2 of 3 when they had a chance to win the division?
Fever Pitch Guy
fred – Postseason is a whole different ballgame.
Some players excel in the limelight, others choke. Other than Xander, not a whole lot of postseason experience on the Padres. Anything can happen.
DashaToushu
@Fever
“Postseason is a whole different ballgame.”
It’s largely the same ballgame.
If you take 2 to 7 game samples of the regular season you’ll also find great players who “choke” and poor players who are “clutch”.
fred-3
@dashatoshu those weren’t do or die games, both teams were in the playoffs. they were just playing for the division and sweeping three games at dodger stadium is nearly an impossible task.
Fever Pitch Guy
Dash – Do you EVER agree with anyone? LOL!
I have done many studies over the years to support my findings, which are also widely supported by players and coaching staffs.
Here’s the thing, players are HUMAN ….. and HUMANS react differently directly based on many factors especially pressure and stress. Those who can handle pressure the best, like David Ortiz and Curt Schilling and Jon Lester, perform better than expected in the postseason. Not every postseason game, but over a decent sample size.
Are you really gonna try to dispute that now? ;O)
websoulsurfer
Why did the Dodgers lose 8 of 13 against the Padres this season?
DashaToushu
@fred
“those weren’t do or die games”.
So, these games weren’t important enough for the Padres to win?
Is that the argument?
DashaToushu
@Fever
“I have done many studies over the years to support my findings”
I LOVE studies. Let’s see them.
“Here’s the thing, players are HUMAN ….. and HUMANS react differently directly based on many factors especially pressure and stress. Those who can handle pressure the best, like David Ortiz and Curt Schilling and Jon Lester, perform better than expected in the postseason. Not every postseason game, but over a decent sample size.
Are you really gonna try to dispute that now?”
Nope
I’ll just say I don’t think these is a way for you to know which players can and can’t handle the heat.
How do you separate the signal from the noise?
Can’t wait for the studies.
DashaToushu
@web
Why did the Padres lose 69 of 162 and the Dodgers just 64 of 162?
And why did the Padres lose 2 if 3 when they could have tied for the division?
Because the Padres are actually better?
99socalfrc
@Fever Pitch Guy
Like 75% of the Padres team was also the Padres team the last time they beat the Dodgers in the playoffs. You forgot that I guess when posting your “not much postseason experience beyond Xander” comment???
johnsilver
Never know. Some play thru it, some don’t. No 2 players are alike, different thresholds. Yaz played tad over 10y with his back jacked up, but only season really missed time was the “hamate” season (72). He struggled thru rest of the time, even won few more GG’s.
NYCityRiddler
As long as he can still sit in the dugout & do the “tomahawk chop” they’ll be fine. Ahahaha!
BravesFan2024
Should have just let the DBacks in. This will be an embarrassing postseason display yet again from Atlanta.
At least it will be quick and finished by Wednesday night.
Bill M
I think the Braves will be competitive. But yeah, 2 & out
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Boston knew he couldn’t make it through an entire season, he just chose the worst time to prove them right
Dustyslambchops23
Braves aren’t in the postseason with out him
MysteryWhiteBoy13
They squeaked in the final game of the year because the Mets weren’t playing their regulars
YankeesBleacherCreature
Every single team would’ve taken Sale’s
performance and accompanying salary this season playoffs or not – even the White Sox.
ChipperChop
@mystery you can push that narrative. The Braves also “squeaked in” because the d-backs played horrible when they needed it most including blowing an 8-0 lead in a game against the Brewers while the Braves won 6 of their last 8 games.
Salvi
‘Not making the Playoffs’ vs ‘Eliminated in the First Round’
Is it that big of a win?
Dustyslambchops23
lol be serious man
DashaToushu
@Salvi
“Is it that big of a win?”
Absolutely
Also, playoffs haven’t started yet. Let alone finished.
mrmackey
The Injury Gods frowned upon the Braves in 2024. Otherwise they would have been a powerhouse.
BravesFan2024
A powerhouse without the injuries?
Don’t kid yourself. Everyone was playing mediocre baseball before their injuries. Strider maybe the only exception but the pitching has been fine without Strider.
Don’t believe me just go take one look at Acuna’s numbers, Riley’s numbers, Murphy’s numbers, etc. They’ve been bad, or at least incredibly mediocre. I get that the injuries prevented them from ever having a chance to turn it around, but the ship was heading in the wrong direction before the injuries. Blaming the injuries is serious cope.
MysteryWhiteBoy13
Sure, I wasn’t talking about the Mets, but they were also having a soft rebuild year, so there’s that
MysteryWhiteBoy13
No it’s not, just ask Jays fans
mrmackey
No Strider, no Acuna, limited Riley, Murphy and Albies.
They could have easily have had a better record than the Phillies but for being bitten hard by the injury bug swarm.
Astros2017&22Champs
Boston traded him for a replacement level hitter. John henry needs to sell the team. MLB is better with boston a juggernaut
avenger65
Dusty: Very true. And, Mystery, Sale DID make it through the season.
MysteryWhiteBoy13
@ dusty obviously not
letitbelowenstein
Yeah, they were much better off with the sub-.200 hitting Grissom.
mrmackey
Yeah Boston really dodged a bullet, they could have had a triple crown quality SP. Instead Grissom really tore it up for them!
jeffreybecker77
yup they were right to trade the triple crown winner and cy young for a minor league shortstop
Jerry Hairston Jr's Toupee
So much for saving Sale for the playoffs. The injury is real….
vacommish
This is unfortunate. The Braves SP was to be a playoff strength. Because MLB didn’t move the Mets series up to last Monday with a doubleheader on Tuesday (pre-hurricane) the Braves, and Mets to a degree, pitching has been exhausted before the playoffs. I Hope Sale will be available for another series should the Braves survive the Wildcard round.
Dustyslambchops23
Isn’t that by design though? There has to be some incentive to win a division or locking up early. Setting your playoff roster is one of those perks
Onefiver
The Braves refused to move the games. They get to suffer the consequences now. The Mets got shafted by this decision. Sunday in Milwaukee, then off to Atlanta for a double header, then back to Milwaukee for a three game elimination series. F*** the Braves, they are complicit in their own demise if this affects their pitching.
Idosteroids
Tell me you’re an idiot without telling me you’re an idiot.
Dustyslambchops23
The Mets could have won more games at any point of the season to avoid that situation
Old York
Terrible to see another star not in the playoffs.
E.D Murray
Sale and Glasnow picking the worst time to live up to their reputations.
avenger65
I’ll enjoy watching Cease, Sale (hopefully) and Lopez – all former White Sox pitchers – compete in the postseason. They all deserve better than being on the worst team in the modern day history of baseball (Look out, 1899 Spiders! We’re coming after you next season!)
Clofreesz
Dang! Terrible news for Atlanta facing San Diego.
bcjd
Hindsight is 20/20. It’s clear the Red Sox would have loved to have had Sale’s production on the roster this year, even if he just barely pushed them into the postseason and couldn’t pitch in October. I’m confident the Braves have no regrets, and I’m skeptical the next three years of What’s-his-name playing second in Wooster is going to change that. Nonetheless, the trade made sense for Boston at the time.
Anyhow, with Verlander, Scherzer and Kershaw all sidelined for the first round of the playoffs just like Sale, it made me wonder what would it take for Sale to punch his ticket to the HoF? Would five more years like 2024 be enough to get him in? What are the chances he’ll be able to perform at a high level until he’s 40?
YankeesBleacherCreature
Probably three more productive seasons plus this season’s CYA gets him in. Roy Halladay is a good comp.
bcjd
Through their first 14 seasons, Halladay pitched 600 more innings than Sale, and accumulated 11.6 more WAR. Sale is more of a strikeout pitcher, but his results on average are only marginally better — 140 ERA+ to 138 ERA+.
Halladay’s last two seasons were dreadful, with a negative 0.6 WAR and a 5.15 ERA. So I suppose Sale just needs 600 innings and an additional 11 WAR, which should be possible with three more seasons.
But Halladay got a boost for having his career cut short. His career WAR, JAWS and other advanced metrics fall below the average for the Hall. Voters gave him a little extra credit for the seasons he didn’t get to pitch. His best full-career comps are Adam Wainwright and Dwight Gooden. His best comps through age 36, when he died, are Tim Hudson and Mike Mussina.
I don’t see Sale getting that bump. Particularly since he had a five lost seasons in Boston.
Compare them both with Kershaw. Through 14 seasons, Kershaw accumulated nearly 20 WAR more than Sale, in slightly fewer innings than Halladay. Here’s a link to all three filtered for their first 14 years:
stathead.com/tiny/Jxm5F
To catch up to Kershaw over three more seasons, Sale will need 800 innings and 25 WAR. That seems improbable given his health.
Sale might finish somewhat close to Halladay, but that leaves him as a bubble candidate at best. And that requires three years of 200 innings each, a tall order for someone with his injury history.
Dustyslambchops23
Good analysis bcjd, one comment though Doc died at 40, 4 years after retiring not his age 36 season
Troy Percival's iPad
There is no universe where that trade ever makes sense. Sale was still throwing hard enough to be dominant. He was overdue for a healthy(-er) season. He’s now winning a CYA. That trade should be a fire-able offense for Breslow last July
bcjd
“Overdue for a healthier season” requires a crystal ball. There was no good reason to think he was going to pitch 30 starts, much less with a sub-3.00 ERA. It’s only possible to say that with hindsight.
Joemo
Troy – what in the past 4 years of Chris Sale’s career gave you any indication that he’d be healthy this year? If it wasn’t an issue due to pitching mechanics (TJ, the rib injury), Sale hurt himself in the most random ways (falling off the bike, broken finger on a comebacker).
If Sale was still in Boston and hurt, which is the most likely outcome, then the Fo gets crucified for getting literally no value out of his massive deal. Now do I agree that Grissom was a good return? No but that’s a different discussion.
This way, there’s a chance that Grissom contributed to the major league team and they at least get some value out of Chris Sale’s massive extension.
jeffreybecker77
then how did braves know to get him?
Joemo
Jeff – the Braves got Sale for essentially nothing. The Sox paid all of his salary, or very near all of it and the Braves traded a guy with a 79 Ops+ last year and spent most of the year in the minors.
Low risk high reward move by the Braves. If Sale got hurt, they were not actually on the hook for his salary and they only gave up a guy who wouldn’t have cracked the major league team this year and probably didn’t factor in at all to their long term plans with their young talent locked up at those positions.
If someone offered you a free lotto ticket, you take it.
TradeAcuna
Braves will likely win this series just because.
Sale and Spencer Sw are the only two interesting and exciting assets on the team. Can’t wait for the latter to make a name for himself on the big stage.
Still bitter the Mutts won game 1. Didn’t even watch the game and yet despite the lack of investment and anxiety inert if actively watching it, I’m still pissed.
jdgoat
But but but the Mets and Braves had a hand shake agreement to split yesterday so Sale would be fresh for the playoffs?!?!?
bhambrave
Those two rainouts really hurt the Braves. Winning just one of them when they were originally scheduled would have helped save their rotation.
websoulsurfer
Padres get to miss the NL Triple Crown leader and CY Young favorite in the Wild Card series. That has to be a good thing for them.
bcjd
@dustyslambchops — thanks for the correction. Given that, it’s hard to see why Halladay got a boost from the voters. Yes, he was among the best of his era, but he’s definitely a marginal candidate for the HoF. His best seven years are just a hair above the average for a HoF starter. Everything else is below average.