12:45 pm: The Cardinals have formally announced their decision to decline all three club options.
12:22 pm: The Cardinals will not pick up their 2025 team options for right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, or Keynan Middleton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club could have retained Gibson and Lynn for $12MM each, while Middleton’s option was valued at $6MM. Instead, the Cardinals will pay all three pitchers a $1MM buyout and send them back onto the free agent market. They will be eligible to sign with any of the other 29 teams as of Monday.
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote that the team was “not expected” to keep Lynn or Middleton, but the news about Gibson comes as a bit more of a surprise. The durable veteran came exactly as advertised in 2024, giving the Cardinals 30 starts and 169 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA. However, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that he is prioritizing “maximum flexibility” this offseason, hence his decision to clear as much money from the books as possible.
Gibson has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game throughout his career. Dating back to his first full season in 2014, he has made 314 starts. No other pitcher has made as many 300 starts in that time. He has never pitched like an ace, but there is good value in a starter who can consistently pitch a full season’s worth of innings with an ERA close to league average. That’s why Gibson earned a $10MM deal from the Orioles two offseasons ago and a $13MM guarantee from the Cardinals last winter. That’s also why he would have been well worth a net value of $11MM in 2025. It seems as if the Cardinals understand as much but simply prefer to use that money elsewhere. Woo noted they might have picked up Gibson’s option if they felt confident they could offload Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz in a trade. Her report suggests the front office liked Gibson at that $11MM value but ultimately decided they had too much money tied up in other veteran starting pitchers.
Goold mentions that Gibson has “expressed an interest” in returning to St. Louis next season, and for what it’s worth, Mozeliak suggested the team could still consider reunions with all three pitchers. Presumably, however, the Cardinals will wait and see if they can trade any of their other veteran starters before possibly picking up negotiations with Gibson.
Lynn pitched well over the first four months of the 2024 season, bouncing back from a difficult 2023 campaign to produce a respectable 4.06 ERA and 4.47 SIERA across his first 21 starts. Unfortunately, right knee inflammation limited him to just two starts over the final two months of the year. They were both good outings, lowering his full-season ERA to 3.84, but considering Lynn’s age (he’ll turn 38 next year) and his recent history of right knee problems (he missed more than two months after knee surgery in 2022), it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals were wary of bringing him back on an eight-figure salary in 2025.
The 2024 season was a lost year for Middleton, who could not return to the mound after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. He ultimately underwent flexor tendon surgery in June, formally ending his season. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ decision not to pick up his option is the least surprising of the three. It’s possible he’ll be back to full health by next spring, but his value is certainly lower than it was at this time last year. Wherever he signs this offseason, it’s likely to be for significantly less than $6MM.
In addition to Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, three more Cardinals veterans will be free agents this winter: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Andrew Kittredge. Even with a handful of players eligible to earn raises in arbitration and Sonny Gray’s forthcoming $15MM salary bump (the deal he signed last winter was heavily backloaded), RosterResource estimates the Cardinals 2025 payroll to be $147MM, well below their estimated $183MM payroll this past season. If they had chosen to pick up the options on Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, that would have increased next year’s payroll projection to $174MM.
This was what I expected and had hoped they would do.
As long as they let the young guys come and prove themselves this year and not hold them back! Heck ya, let’s see how a young core builds!
Liberatore
Mcgreevy
Robberse
Graceffo
Kloffenstein
Those guys are all ready for an opportunity today right now.
Quinn Mathews!
Tink Hence
Yeah Matthews will be ready mod season. Hence i think we are talking 2026. The team has a lot of pitching talent in the minors.
Wow that might be worse pitching staff in baseball.
Well it’s a good thing that isn’t the starting rotation then right?
Good gosh dude
If Gibson was truly with his contract ($1m underwater), he should have been able to fetch a very low return. My guess is his next contract will be half of that as otherwise why not keep him, add a couple of $m and get a decent prospect that might help you in a few years when you expect to compete?
This is good news for Cardinal fans in that it means they may keep Sonny Gray and Ryan Helsley.
They will trade both Gray and Helsley even if they have to eat some salary on a Gray trade. This will not be a competitive year for the Cardinals unless some young guys have great breakout years.
Not a Cards fan, but sorry to hear that.
should have happened 2 yrs ago when goldy and Arenado where at maximum return
I was all for it at the 2023 deadline to get back good pitching prospects.
When both were MVP candidates? Should have just traded them away???
Yes, the writing was already on the wall about where the team was headed.
After 2022? The heck it was thats hindsight bs.
Comedians everywhere
I’m sure others here can verify the fact that Donovan Osborne and I both wanted the team to start a rebuild at the 2023 deadline because the writing was already on the wall. Many people refused to see it. Why was there a mass exodus of the coaching staff prior to 2023? Did they see what was coming? It was obvious by the 2023 deadline. Arenado certainly regrets not opting out after the 2022 season.
End of 2022 and 2023 deadline are two different periods of time. And at the 2023 deadline what value did either Arenado or Goldschmidt actually have? They both had huge contracts and weren’t playing particularly well.
I suggested trading Goldschmidt at the 2023 deadline but not for a legit return just for salary relief. But that would have only benefited ownership it wouldn’t have made the team any better off than it is now.
The Dodgers wanted Arenado at the 2023 deadline. Goldschmidt was heating up after his 2022 MVP year on a short contract. He would have approved a trade to a contender and he still had good value.
Goldschmidt was making 26 million a year. Arenado perhaps had some trade value but I wouldn’t have traded him. The return for Goldschmidt wouldn’t have been much at all.
I can verify that. I was about even before that. Stopped renewing my season tickets after 2016 when this was all clearly destined to happen.
Good. People kept saying the team should bring back Gibson but he’s not needed. The team is loaded with back end major league ready starters.
That’s about all they’re loaded with. Ahahahaha!
Truth.
Sounds like Cardinals going the total rebuild route with their starters, live and die with a group of young starters, lower payroll for a couple of seasons. it could work out.
They don’t have to go total rebuild because they let Lynn and Gibson go. That’s simply false. Frankly they shouldn’t have signed either last year. There are guys in AAA ready to pitch.
Letting Gibson go is a little bit surprising, much like the new Tribulation album being a letdown
Gibson has Boston written all over him.
Stupid to let Gibson go for nothing. They could have picked up the option and immediately trade him or hold him until the trade deadline and trade him Mike they should have last year. He pitched to a $12mm level last year. I’m sure a team would have traded something for him if they would have picked up the option. Another Mozaliak fail and lack of planing for the future.
They may try to resign him to a more team friendly contract. He lives in the Lou and wants to finish his career there.
12 million is a team friendly deal based off his 2024 success. It’s also very trade able. He would have fetched the highest return of any pitcher traded in July. Probably would get much less if signed and traded before the season started, but the Cardinals farm system is beyond empty. Getting anything back would be a plus.
Farm system is empty?
Ok…
It might not be empty but I think their farm system is rated around 20. Not exactly top tier
their minor leage pitching was ranked top 5 by one of the publications
Not entirely empty. There is some talent in A and AA, pitchers anyway. So at best 2 years from seeing if the talent is legit. Oh yeah, and lots of Catchers, signed 3 this past draft. Still we are not overflowing with young talent.
Most of those pictures are A and AA. So there a few years to see how that plays out. Hence and Matthews are two nearly MLB ready pitchers. Most of the other high minors pitchers have issues or injury problems and inconsistentcy.
Don’t underestimate how quickly MO can make it a lost season. I think he is trying to dump for the next FO to have a clean(er) slate. Does that make ’27 the next contention year?
Just read article saying Arenado could go straight to the Dodgers, moderate return.
(pitchers) oops.
It’s got depth, but with Walker, Gorman, Winn all up in the majors it’s definitely missing some top end talent, especially among position players.
I like the idea. He had a solid year, but at 37, does it make sense to offer him a two-year deal? Maybe as a reliever option after next year? Seems like a stretch?
Gibson has a no trade clause. It would be risky assuming he can be traded somewhere he wants to go.
I think 40 man roster considerations complicate that idea.
Gibson has maybe a bit of trade value, but probably pretty minimal. Think his contract is basically in-line with what he’d get as a free agent.
So, in terms of trading Gibson, one question is if what the Cardinals could get for him is better than the player they could otherwise protect from the Rule 5 draft. Or, alternately, a player they could take in the Rule 5 draft, if they have a 40-man roster spot open (instead of Gibson).
The Cardinals farm system is terrible. It’s full of guys 25+ years old. Whoever Gibson would be saving from the rule 5 is probably not long for the org anyway. Or at least wouldn’t be with most of the other clubs. Matthew’s looks promising, but the Cardinals will not bring him up until the change everything about him. Hence’s ceiling is a closer. The rest of the minor league pitchers are all 5th starters or more likely bullpen arms. I like Davis, Crooks and Weatherholt. Then it’s a bunch of not going to make its and more of the same barely league average utility guys.
I’m just curious if they end up trading the more intriguing players on the roster. Helsey, Arenado or Contreras. Maybe a package deal?
Helsley for sure. No point in keeping one of the best closers in MLB for a lost year, and a good few teams will compete for him.
Arenado they will trade if they can, but it won’t hurt so much to keep him, he’s still good if no longer elite.
They probably need to keep Contreras given their lousy RH hitting.
It won’t necessarily be a lost year, and even with a nice arbitration raise, Helsley’s salary can easily fit into their budget. The Cardinals are cutting payroll but still trying to compete next year on that lower payroll.
It makes no sense to trade Arenado, since they’d have to eat money to do it, which goes against their goal of cutting payroll, Plus Arenado, like Contreras, has a full no trade clause, still has three years left on his contract, and is still a good right-handed hitter (who also plays good defense). By 2027, they’ll still want both of those guys in their lineup.
Disagree on every point, but it’s a free country
Rather have Gibson than Mikolas, so I’m guessing they are keeping Mikolas.
They know Mikolas can’t be traded.
Yeah, Mikolas will need a good Spring Training just to avoid a DFA.
Will the Cardinals do that to an 18 MM player? MO sèems to be sweet on Mikolas.
With a guy in his mid-30s in the last year of his contract who has declined past the point of being a useful pitcher over the last two years? Absolutely, they could DFA him.
Then are trying to get older lol
They*
The they should draft me. I’m older than dirt.
They aren’t going to beat the value of Gibson’s option on the free agent market, so now I really hope the Cardinals don’t trade Sonny Gray.
A rotation of Gray, Fedde, Pallante, McGreevey, and one of Matz/Mikolas/Thompson/Roby/etc. is respectable with decent depth. If Gray is taken out of the equation, then the rotation looks dicey in terms of both quality and depth.
What you said 🙂
Doesn’t it just make you shudder to see Mikolas’ name in a starting 5 list.
That’s why I only put him as an option for the 5th starter. More likely, he gets DFAed at some point early next season.
I doubt Mikolas get’s DFA’d unless he’s significantly worse (including peripherals) than he was in 2024.
The team is paying him for 2025 either way, at best saving a few hundred k for the pro-rated minimum.
But I also think the team is going to cut pretty deep this offseason, with Contreras, Helsey, and at least one of Arenado/Gray traded away.
It would be hard for Mikolas to be significantly worse than he was last year. Peripherals don’t matter much compared to actual results. Yes, they might suggest a small bounceback for next year, but he’s been heavily declining for two years in a row while in his mid-30s.
Yes, the Cardinals will have to pay him either way, but if Mikolas can’t do better than a replacement pitcher from AAA,, then he’s actively hurting the team and needs to be cut no matter how much he makes. The team still wants to compete next year as well as they can on their lower budget, and it’s not like Mikolas has any trade value right now.
In any case, we’ll see how he does in Spring Training and maybe early next season before the decision is possibly made.
There’s no certainly that any of thy guys you listed will be traded and likely not more than one or two of them given Helsley’s relatively cheap projected salary, the no trade clauses for the other three, Arenado’s partially underwater contract, and that the latter two should still be useful at worst on the next good Cardinals team(s) while still under contract for three.more years.
Maybe you’re correct that I’m overestimating just how much the team will step back in 2025.
The counter, though, is that I think *not* doing so would position the team to keep pushing along in the “mushy middle”: an OK-ish record, but a low probability of making the playoffs.
With Helsley, the issue isn’t his $ cost for 2025. It’s the opportunity cost of not getting a trade return for him, and instead having him walk after he secures the team a handful of incremental 2025 wins. When those handful of additional 2025 wins don’t really matter for a team that doesn’t contend for the playoffs.
Analysis for keeping Fedde in 2025 is similar to Helsley.
As for Arenado and Contreras, the counter is that their 2027 salaries are still likely to be inefficient spending – relative to their 2027 production – even if they are still playable then as useful players. In other words, if 2027 (and later) is a more realistic playoff contention window, then the 2027 salary budget would be better spent on moves made closer to 2027, either free agents or taking on salary in trades.
The other reality is that veterans like Arenado and Contreras are going to play as long as they’re healthy and reasonably productive. So their presence complicates going to a youth movement, playing younger guys, and seeing what they can do.
I’m less concerned about that on the starting pitching side. A team needs a full rotation, more than 5 pitchers per year typically get a significant number of starts due to injuries, and innings limitations make it tough to push a bunch of young starters into the majors at one time. But sure, there’s obviously some limit to the leash that Mikolas gets if his results continue to be bad and there are AAA pitchers who look like better major league options.
With them all gone, hopefully this means they won’t trade Gray. With Gray, Polanco, McGreevy, Mikolas and some sort of 5th starter, this rotation COULD be okay-ish. But a lot of things have to fall into place for team success…which seems unlikely, at this point.
Forgot they still have Fedde under contract.
I agree. Getting rid of the dead weight won’t hurt this pitching staff at all.
Think another year of Gibson at $12m would be solid, if you’re serious about winning. Just not sure to what depth of the Cardinals rebuild is going to be.
I like Gibson. There’s value in consistency and durability.
I wouldn’t start my wish list with him, but would be happy to slot him into the back of my rotation.
Good move! load the wagon and speed up the rebuild.
I think there is a big difference between back and major league starters and rookie starters. That is a reason you usually don’t see more than a single rookie pitcher starting unless on a have-to need basis. Teams don’t start their seasons with 3-5 rookies for the starting 5.
We’re looking at a rotation of Gray, Mikolas, Fedde, Pallante, Matz. Even on a rebuilding team its hard for rookies to break in as a starting pitcher. I suppose we can assume Gray gets traded, and Matz gets hurt, so then maybe we see Graceffo and McGreevy break in.
I truthfully think the Dewitts are cutting costs to sell. I don’t think it’s a bad idea. Ballpark village is not doing well because people are petrified to go downtown and they don’t want to invest to improve the big league club. Selling off assets and nominal investment in the minors.
#1 I haven’t been in STL in 5 years, so is downtown that bad?
#2 DeWitt’s actions do have a bad smell/taste to them but nothing said yet ??
Downtown is bad in some areas, but Ballpark Village has definitely been a success and the area surrounding is doing well, but kind of at the expense of Wash Ave.
I don’t think they’re selling, I think it is mostly Mo saying to let him fall on the sword for this season, that way Chaim gets a clean slate, and the new manager would have a clean slate as well.
These moves are fine, allows them to cut costs and see what they’re working with once the streaming gets going as well.