The Brewers still have business to attend to here in 2024, as they won the National League Central. They naturally still have aspirations of continuing to win through October and nabbing a World Series title. But the offseason is going to start in a few weeks regardless of what happens in the playoffs and plans have to be made. Owner Mark Attanasio was asked about some of the questions facing the club with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting on his responses. Most notably, Attanasio didn’t offer much insight on the club’s planned payroll for next year while downplaying the chances of the club re-signing shortstop Willy Adames.
On the payroll side of things, Attanasio didn’t really tip his hand. While the club’s strong performance this year has led to increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner suggested that it may end up a wash with the club receiving less revenue sharing.
“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue isn’t just ticket revenue; it (includes) beverage and sponsorships, all of which are strong. (There’s) also revenue sharing, which we’ve talked about a lot. The way that the revenue sharing model works, everybody puts their money in the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you make on a comparative basis, the less revenue sharing you get.”
Attanasio also went on to highlight that the club will face some uncertainty in terms of their TV revenues. “We’ve got local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally’s. If you look to the medium term and not just the short term, I look at that as opportunities because of the ability to control our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that may occasion a step back next year.” Per Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a step back” meant less TV revenue coming in, not necessarily less money going out to the player payroll.
Diamond has been in a limbo state for quite some time now. Reports emerged in the 2022-23 offseason that the company, which owns Bally Sports networks, was in a bad financial position. The company filed for bankruptcy just before the 2023 season kicked off but has since tried to stay afloat. It’s not yet clear if their efforts to continue operating will ultimately be successful.
Though the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their total portfolio has shifted. They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have been fairly untouched so far but Hogg’s piece notes that their deal with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their 2025 TV revenue a big unknown at this point.
There are many moving parts between the gate revenue, uncertainty with the broadcast situation and the revenue sharing. Since the club continues to perform well on the field but is facing those questions about the business side of things, perhaps it’s fair to expect that the payroll won’t be wildly shifting in either direction.
The club’s payroll has generally fallen in the middle of the league, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Attanasio purchased the club in 2005 and the club has never been higher than 13th in terms of player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers have been in the range of 19th to 22nd among the 30 clubs in the majors. This year, they were 22nd with an Opening Day budget of $104MM.
Despite those financial limitations, there has been a lot of on-field success. This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Milwaukee has cracked the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.
Per RosterResource, the club only has $39MM committed to next year’s roster, though that number doesn’t really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18MM player option that he will surely trigger on the heels of a down year. There’s a $4MM buyout, so he’ll add $14MM to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will surely pick up club options on Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Colin Rea, adding another $21.25MM.
That would get the total number up to the $75MM range, before accounting for arbitration raises. Aaron Civale is making $4.9MM this year and should get a bump of a few million. Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps each made around $2MM this year and will get bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to get a notable raise with his strong career to date. Players like Jake Bauers, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill and Nick Mears are also in line for arb raises.
Depending on which of those players are tendered contracts and where the salaries ultimately end up, the Brewers could wind up fairly close to this year’s $104MM payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some cash, but the club might not have a lot of powder dry to bring back Adames, which Attanasio was frank about.
“He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”
Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has had a strong bounce back this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line translated to a 119 wRC+, indicating he was 19% above league average at the plate overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries. His defensive reviews weren’t as strong as previous years, with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average, though his career tallies are still positive in both of those metrics. Even with the diminished grades for his glovework, FanGraphs still considered him to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement on the year.
As a solidly above average shortstop going into his age-29 season, his free agency has a lot of comparables to Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. All three of them were in similar positions as they hit the open market. Báez and Story each got $140MM over six years while Swanson got $177MM over seven.
The Brewers have only once given out a contract anywhere near that range, with the extension for Christian Yelich getting to $188.5MM. Apart from that, the largest contract in franchise history was $105MM for Ryan Braun back in 2011, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.
Given the club’s track record and current budgetary question marks, and Attanasio’s straightforward comments, the odds of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem to be quite low. Assuming that comes to pass, they will recoup draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he will reject.
The club has a couple of in-house options to cover for Adames, as both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz came up as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive grades primarily at second and third base this year respectively and either could be a candidate to move back to short going forward. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a low-cost solution to Adames’ departure if the club goes that route. They would then have to address either second or third base but could find internal solutions for that issue as well. The club has toyed with Sal Frelick being moved to third as a solution to its crowded outfield picture, though injuries have allowed him to stay in the outfield for now. Prospect Tyler Black is also a possibility at the hot corner going forward.
There will be many questions to be answered in the weeks and months to come. For now, the club will be focused on winning the games in front of them, which could also impact the upcoming winter. A lengthy playoff run would lead to more gate and TV revenue, which could perhaps impact how the front office and ownership answer some of these questions.
Very Barry
Nothing but respect for Milwaukee as a baseball organization. They play good, solid baseball. They should be in the A.L. Central. They are built and play like our squads.
tangerinepony
Well, once upon a time time before 1998 they were in the AL central
Ezpkns34
Hope the Brewers continue to carry the NL Central crown, nice change from the Cardinals
Dice 66
They are a 4th place club in any other division!! NL Central terrible! Rather see Pirates playing this game with all the young pitching! They finished last! Skenes would shut these bums down!!
Samuel
Dice 66;
Nonsense.
Dice 66
Wake up! You have a false sense of illusion! Understand your a fan, but your owner got rid of your 2 best pitchers! Really!!?
brewsingblue82
Their record says otherwise. And you can’t even say “well they play lower tier clubs.” The cubs, cardinals, and even the reds to an extent put up fairly competitive teams. With the cardinals and cubs often in the picture to take the division. Not to mention they don’t play as many games against their division anymore.
Simm
The brewers are obviously a well ran team. They compete in years even when people don’t think they will.
Was an interesting comment about how they made more money so they received less money and it being somewhat of a wash. Basically saying the further ahead they get the more things stay the same financially.
Not sure what baseball can do fix the income disparity in the league. It really hurts competitive balance though.
Very Barry
Baseball is not interested in fixing a system that has the Yankees (New York) and the Dodgers (Los Angeles) in a significantly better financial position than anyone else. They will both be feasting on “juiced” balls in the Playoffs as they try to deliver the media market monster New York vs. L.A. and Judge vs. Ohtani Super Match-Up.
Warden of the North(acoss13)
With a payroll just over 100 million and coming out on top on what seems to be a yearly basis, as a Cubs fan, all I can do is applaud the front office and coaching staff. This is how you run a baseball team.
C Yards Jeff
They are well run. Looks like it starts with the owner. Like “We have a budget every year”.
Samuel
You played ball Jeff.
The other day a poster here rapped Sal Frelick because he plays RF and doesn’t have power numbers offensively. I responded that the Brewers are doing the Whitey Herzog thing and playing 3 CF’s in the OF (the Cardinals won a championship that way).
I was listening to the game tonight, and the broadcaster referred to Frelick as “a winning player”……which he is. Anyone watching games (or playing them) and understanding the sport can see that. Most posters here cannot…and the writers just look at stats and regurgitate them selectively to fit their articles goals.
The other day I read the stupid: “The Yankees would nave been better off with A-Rod at SS then Jeter” comments. They look at spreadsheets and demean the most influential player in MLB over the past 30-40 years…because they don’t understand the game and never played it (even Red Sox fans at the time respected him for the way he played ball). How many WS’s and championships was A-Rod a part of when Jeter wasn’t on his team?
Am really losing it. I think there may be 2-3 dozen posters that understand the sport of baseball. I don’t think any of the writers do. These people look at spreadsheets and maybe watch some highlights. It’s sad. Then again, I was reading some ESPN MLB articles this weekend for the first time in at least months. They were previewing the playoffs. Multiple writers. They were sensational! None of this “every team that doesn’t win is due to the owners not spending more money” crap that goes on here. Like if every owner spent a lot of money and took a loss, all the teams would win the WS.
Short timer here. Find me Astros Hot Takes to start a blog.
DashaToushu
@Samuel
“the broadcaster referred to Frelick as “a winning player”……which he is. Anyone watching games (or playing them) and understanding the sport can see that. ”
You weren’t watching the game, right?
Anyway, Frelick was 2 for 8 last year in the playoffs with 3 K’s. Including a first inning bases loaded K and a Game-Endung fly out in game 1. In game 2 he hit a sac fly with runners on 2nd and 3rd, had an inning ending double play, a an 8th inning force out at home with the basses loaded.
In all, he was the second least productive hitter for the Brewers in the 2023 playoffs with a -.22 WPA
What’d I miss?
jbigz12
Adames feels like a guy who ends up with a Javy Baez contract and the signing team regrets it.
Warden of the North(acoss13)
He’s a streaky guy, so I can see the comparison to Baez. Baez completely cratered as soon as he joined the Tigers. If the Brewers don’t re-sign Willy, it won’t be the end of the world that’s for sure.
Very Barry
Cubs won a ring and then managed to NOT pay Baez (Tigers), Contreras (Cardinals), Bryant (Rockies) and Schwarber (Phillies).
rememberthecoop
And all of those shortstop contracts were regrettable