Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.
Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”
Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.
That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.
The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.
A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.
Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.
While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.
RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.
Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.
The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.
ATinz
#cheaters
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Incoming angry astros fans calling you a bum
DashaToushu
@AT
“#cheaters”
Like many teams at that time.
ATinz
@Dasha Proof?
DashaToushu
@AT
You know about the Red Sox, presumably
Also here’s one article on the topic
theringer.com/mlb/2020/1/14/21066585/alex-cora-bos…
“hours after Monday’s report, veteran infielder Logan Morrison named the Yankees and Dodgers, in addition to the Red Sox and Astros, as teams that have used cameras to steal signs. An October article on electronic espionage in baseball by Scott Miller of Bleacher Report cites league sources who also think the Diamondbacks, Indians, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Nationals have dabbled in the electronic dark arts. Belleville News-Democrat and MLB.com reporter Jeff Jones added the Brewers to that list shortly after Miller’s piece.”
Links to the source articles are in the link
FletcherFan
Maybe if the Astros had bought low on Stowers and Norby they would have scored more than 3 runs…
Ronk325
He gone
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
Bregman to the Cubs is a done deal Bob Nightingale said so
Warden of the North(acoss13)
No thank you to that deal.
CardsFan57
Gonna be an interesting offseason with so many teams up in the air on media income. Take it if they make you a decent offer Alex. Soto is going to get paid. Everyone else will be holding their breath and hoping to get paid.
Warden of the North(acoss13)
I’d throw in Corbin Burnes as well. He and Soto won’t struggle to get offers, everyone else, I agree with you about teams being hesitant this offseason.
Can we please get a DH?
I think Snell has reclaimed #1 SP on the market, but outside of those 3 I’d be surprised to see anyone pass $200M.
I think there is a deep class that could/should surpass $100M though: Bregman, Alonso, Fried, and Adames with Santander, Flaherty possibly getting there too.
Several other names who could get $20M+ AAV, but just might lack the years: Walker, Hernandez, Torres, Scherzer, Montgomery, Eovaldi, Morton, Watcha, and Severino.
WSnotAstros2017
I truly think he may be gone. Then Houston is stuck for third base.
Curious what options they will take for first. Seager, Alonso or is their someone else
Outfield: Chas and Meyers need to go. IF they do non tender Urquidy and Chas which I think they should either trade or non tender. Not sure if would get anything good in a trade so would non tender be better.
Starters why not look at Kikuchi. Is he going to be looking at a lot of money
I know Bullpen no mention but myself Dump Pressley. I wish could dump McCullers. Doubt he will be good. Maybe a long man out of bullpen
Curious even on Montero is he still with the team or is he considered Minor League as think still owed on him.
Also curious with Salazar the catcher. Is he not going to see future with Houston. He has been up with team
I am sure Espada will be back. Not sure on what his contract is or was he just for the year. Wish would find new hitting/pitching coaches and maybe medical staff. I never liked Espada being picked. I know drew interest but guess didn’t interview great or just he really didn’t want elsewhere but Houston but myself don’t have that feel with him like Hinch or even Dusty. Especially with his lineups this season.
I dread next season if with team and Bregman gone and whomever we have at first or outfield.
But some things curious on and such
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Whether he stays or goes. It’ll be an overpay.
₩arkMohlers
How was this guy Juan Soto in 2018 and 2019? Similar K rate but nearly half the bb rate compared to the years after? Crazy. Shocking.
The world may never know.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I think Bregman is the exact kind of player at the stage of career where he has managed to play his way into a 4 year/$130M to 6 year/$225M deal and any other variation in that level of deal.
And whatever it winds up being, it’s gonna be an albatross, where he’s a big shiny new contract and by year two they’re already talking about how they’re gonna platoon him and get him as much rest time as possible and switch him to less taxing, less vital positions and by year 3 or 4 some other player will have unofficially replaced his role entirely on that team, while he gets paid $35M a year to be irrelevant or a bench player “veteran clubhouse presence” for 2-4 years and $70-$150M in sunk cost.
mrkinsm
6 years and 200 million $
Ma4170
I’m just not seeing a contract for bregman that some are projecting. I cant see more than 6-160, but maybe im way off.