After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.
The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).
Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.
Let's take a look at the reasons for that.
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I’m tired of seeing all of those Dylan Carlson 2025 all star articles, it’s a broken record at this point
LOL… I’d like to see one of those articles. I need a good laugh.
A+ reload. Didn’t lose anything significant. Brought back a lot of young talent. They are set up nicely for the rest of the decade.
I’m not sure, I think they’ll be fighting with the Blue Jays for last place in that division. Lately, they are starting to lose a bit of that Rays magic when it comes to their moves. Their lineup has too many below average players still and I don’t see that changing yet. They totally ignore catcher. Not sure what’s going on at first. Morel and Carlson are meh, Siri is ok but they have way too many poor average guys who don’t make up for it with enough pop.
I don’t think they will be last next year but it will be an another somewhat down year before 2026. I think Aranda and Misner will be able to figure it out better than Carlson and Morel. Plus the Rays will probably call Chandler Simpson up at some point next year. Between him and Misner CF should be fine. I could see them shopping Siri next trade deadline
The Rays pitching will be really good next year, and that will keep them in the .500 range. I don’t know where that places them in the ALE, but it’s probably not last. In any event, Aranda will make the OD roster next year at 1B/DH. Misner will be long gone by then, and Carlson and Morel might be too. None of those 3 are long term players. They are placeholders until better options arrive from the minors.
Sure, they have holes in the lineup today, 2 months after they completed 1/2 their rebuild. However, they just promoted the #1 prospect in baseball to man 3B for the next half decade.. Their AAA squad next year will include 3 top 50 prospects in C.Williams (SS), B.Taylor (2B) and X.Isaac (1B), plus other top prospects like T.Morgan (1B) and C.Simpson (CF). All these guys have good bats. At the catcher position they just promoted L.Driscoll to the Show and they have catchers at every level they are excited about, including Keegan (AAA next year) and 2024 3rd round draft pick (Nathan Flewelling). Rays will be an entirely different team in 2026. Morel and Carlson are not part of that future though. They should both be gone by then.
A lot of teams are so so at catcher. 2025 Rotation will have…..
Sugar
Springs
Baz
Little
Pepiot
Bradley
With other options pitching in the minors. The prospects they added at the deadline were A & AA level. The Rays have AAA level prospects that will need opportunities. The Rays can go a number of ways in the offseason to add to their roster. If their 2024 offense was middle of the pack they would have been in a WC spot this year.
I have a feeling Littel will be moved this offseason and the Rays will sign another journeyman to take his spot.
They will probably ease Rasmussen into the rotation as well.
They may sign a journeyman but he’ll be in the minors. Rays OD rotation will be McClanny, Springs, Ras, Baz, and Bradley, with Pep starting in the minors. That isn’t my preferred rotation, but Cash/Neander have said Ras will be moved back to the rotation next year and there’s only 5 spots for those 6 guys. Littell will definitely be traded this offseason because he’s in the final year of control.
Rays are going to have a shot at having a complete staff with McClanahan, Springs, Pepiot, Baz, and Bradley, and Rasmussen maybe as a closer or fill-in. Let’s just hope they don’t get injured trying to out spin-rate each other.
The problem is the cheap ass owner won’t spend money to improve the lineup.
Caminiero can be a franchise 2b, Carson Williams could handle SS, and Josh Lowe can play right, but other than that, the lineup is suspect with old guys or .200 hitters.
I don’t trust Morel to hit over .220, although he can hit 30-40 bombs. Diaz is getting up there in age, as is Brandon Lowe. Siri either has his head in the game or he doesn’t and has a little too much attitude to fulfill his potential. I would try to flip B Lowe, Yandy, Morel, and Siri while they still have some value, try Basabe and Carson Williams at short, put Caminiero full time at 2b, and try to pry either Langliers or Soderstrom from Oakland to be the best catcher in franchise history. If there is anyone else you acquire after trading the 4 and getting the Oakland catcher, make sure you get a 3b or 1b, and hopefully DeLuca can maybe play CF, Mead can play RF, and let maybe Aranda could DH and be a backup infielder. In a year or 2, Chandler Simpson and Xavier Isaac could be ready, and maybe the Rays have something. Get Pennybags $ternberg to sign a big name free agent for whatever position needs an upgrade, and maybe he will get people to fill his new unnecessary stadium. It’s gonna be a few years, Rays fans. Let’s hope the pitching staff stays healthy and competes until the lineup can catch up and $tu decides that he’s saved enough $$$ and goes after a top tier free agent.
I like the Langeliers idea, but only if it’s a quantity over quality trade like the As seem to enjoy. Toss morel in with some superfluous pieces like Brayden Taylor. If not, I think Rortvedt and Dom Keegan could be a solid pairing behind the dish.
I wouldn’t call B.Taylor a superfluous piece. The dude can play SS reasonably well and is hitting about as well as X.Isaac. He’s probably the everyday starting 2B in two years.
Superfluous meaning surplus not unnecessary. He’s solid, but the Rays have a good amount of infielders to deal from. I just meant he’s a good player to use in a trade to get MLB ready talent without it being a too much of a hit to their future plans.
I guess I’m showing my true feelings on everyone else in the system. B.Lowe will be gone in 2 years, Cabby sucks at the plate, Walls is atrocious at the plate, Morel is simply atrocious, I like Palacious best as a utility, and I have zero expectations for guys like Simon and Basabe, so that leaves Taylor (a top 50 prospect) for 2B. I think he’s important to the team’s future.
Please take langliers, don’t care for his hitting approach. Despite the homeruns. He does hit much better on the road so a team might view that as a good thing. Also he’s a bad pitcher framers even though strong arm. A’s don’t have any other catchers ready, maybe Daniel Susac in late 2025. So they might mot be open to dealing langeliers yet
I don’t follow the A’s that close, but isn’t Tyler Soderstrom a catcher for them, or did they move him to another position?
Karen – Caminero plays 3B. C.Williams is an elite defensive SS who has hit above .800 OPS at every level. He’s the future at SS. Basabe is depth, at best. Basabe and C.Williams are not in the same league as prospects go.
CLE has developed quite a bit of pitching. But DET has produced the most pitching in the division the last 20 years.
MIN has developed Berrios and Ober. Other than that Ryan developed in TB’s system.
As for White Sox they ve developed Sale and Cease recently. Unless you want to hang your hat on a half season of Crochet. Giolito was brought up in Nats system.
As a lifer Rays fan, everyone kept saying “just wait until our staff is back at full strength.” When it happened, we’d still lose 2-1, 3-2, 2-0, etc. The lack of hitting this year has been remarkable. We have to grab some hitting FAs to provide leadership and direction. Way too many holes in our offense. Being said, I can’t wait to continue to watch Jr develop and the youth in Durham. Just gotta hope it translates when they get promoted. The RISP and lack of rbi guys has turned this offense into one of the worst in our history.
Bingo! We could have a rotation of all stars and still lose. The hitting has been the problem every since their shortened WS run. Embarrassed in the playoffs when they have to face good pitching too. They didn’t fix that problem… They STILL didn’t fix that problem. They will be equally mediocre next year unless they make some big moves for some big bats. Is that gonna happen? Nope! It’ll be the same lineup as now.
There is no defensible excuse for not signing Juan Soto. He will pay for himself. Scared money don’t make money.
The Rays seem to be in complete control of their destiny. They appear to always have a plan, and their plans usually work out.
In other words, they are polar opposites of the Cardinals.
portent? for the Rays? not
Can’t win every game 1-0. Jays for a month have been throwing out a lineup of Vlad Springer and Buffalo boys.
Ray’s have no offence.
I mean yeah, awesome. Pitching is awesome IF they’re healthy. They are all always not healthy. I expect 1-2 of them to go down in ST or beginning of the season.
But th Rays will continue to use reclamation projects in the lineup. It’s poorly constructed and I’d say just from the eye test they are worse than the Blue Jays and As and White Sox. I don’t care about defense if the guy can’t even make contact with the ball at the plate (Siri/Walls/Caballero). But they’re cheap so let’s trudge out another lineup with half the guys hitting under . 220. They need a big purge on offense and need to change direction.
A big purge on offense… What do you think they are in the process of doing? They traded two of their best bats in Aroz and Paredes and will probably trade one of B.Lowe or Diaz (or both) this offseason. Then in 2026 they’ll have an almost entirely new lineup from the guys who will be in AAA next year (i.e., C.Williams, X.Isaac, B.Taylor, C.Simpson, T.Morgan and others).
Great but I don’t know if I want to wait 2-3 more years to see that happen. Basically I want most of the lineup to be cut or traded. Cut bait with Morel so we don’t need to see half a season of him to determine he’s probably not gonna be fixed. Trade Siri while his value is still decent enough. Basically I want a clear direction either way. 1 is to go for it and actually acquire or pay decent FAs who can hit. Yes I know it’s not easy but they gotta get creative. The other (more likely) option is to tear it down and allow the younger players to get experience. Maybe they’ll suck… But it’d be better than watching half-competive baseball knowing that they’ll get blown out by good teams.
I can guarantee that some of these pitchers will get hurt, but they have AT LEAST 8 starters to choose from, and some excess can be shopped (littell), bullpen role (Rass), or on Taxi Squad (Alexander), and this is barring prospects or acquisition. As long as Cash or Snider are in charge, I will NEVER be worried about the Rays bullpen. Point is that if/when the pitching injuries flood in, the rays have infinite depth to pull from (because of course).
Of course the concern was never that, but the ability for the offense to produce. I am quite sure that Jlowe will bounce back and Jr will have a breakout campaign. Blowe may not be a super long term solution at 2B, but he is still in his prime years and a top 3 hitter on the team atm. Yandy is a really solid 1B, but he is getting old and there are many better options out there (free agent or riding Arranda’s breakout), he may get traded already, or if not, 2025 will be the end of his tenure for the sake of veteran presence (this whole essay is written with the knowledge that the Rays have LEGIONS of position players arriving in 27/28). Vedt is solidly AVERAGE at catcher, and the rest at C aren’t cutting it, so maybe add a veteran catcher to hold it down with vedt until Keegan arrives.
Here is where it gets tricky, at SS (special thanks to a certain diddler that ruined a potential dynasty) and OF. I have Faith in DeLuca to steadily improve, so have him at least temporarily in CF, Jlowe is gonna be an all star next year, you heard it here first. But the gap that Randy left in left? This is where ownership should suck it up and upgrade with a free agent (maybe Soto, but it could even be less drastic with someone like Teoscar, Santander, or even Pham if you are fine with the lofty age). Palacios is ok for a backup OF, Carlson is a low risk, high reward makeover candidate, and the 5th spot can develop all of the prospects overtime. Then there is the Jose Siri problem, he is a great defender, and a power/speed combo that the franchise hasn’t seen since BJ Upton (I like to call players like these “leopards”), but he is completely undisciplined on and off the field. I say in a year or two, DeLuca will surpass him anyways, so if Siri can bring home a Gold Glove, try shopping him to create room for new talent and clubhouse stability. Most of the previous statement also applies to Cabby at SS, he is SUPER fast and an underrated defender, but he is a bit gutsy and always getting into fights with Siri and Yandy (not to mention his undesirable batting average), and Carson Williams will end up replacing him in a year or two. Then of course we have Morel sitting at DH/2B.
C: Rotvedt/Langeliers or Free Agent
1B: Arranda
2B: Brandon Lowe through 2026
SS: FA or utility until CW develops
3B: Junior
LF: FA/carlson
RF: Josh Lowe/misner/carlson
CF: DeLuca/misner/Basabe
DH: Morel (id say give him a shot, he has potential despite the risk)
UT: Cabby
Trade: Yandy, Siri, Walls, Palacios, maybe cabby
Get: Catcher, Soto, SS, veteran of ANY kind to act as leadership
Do all this for 2025 and the rays will be at least a 1st or 2nd wild card, and will be set 2027 onward regardless (and they better keep some guys around for once when the new stadium opens or istg). Thanks for attending my ted talk
BA was saying the last week or so that the Rays were 5th of 15 in AL getting guys into scoring position, but last in getting them in…A team, barring extra innings gets 27 outs a game, over 4300 outs during a 162 game season….the Rays lack PRODUCTIVE outs….Think of how many games they lost by close scores…
Siri hit .146 with RISP, striking out 49 times in 103 at bats….47% K rate with RISP? That is untenable…How many times did we see bases loaded and a strikeout, then a pop up… but a soft grounder scores one, a fly ball another….
Josh Lowe hit .241 for the season, but .172 with RISP… with bases loaded he was 0/8 with 6 strikeouts! With RISP overall he struck out 39 of 87 AB’s, a 45% K rate!
Take 30 of the Rays 4300 outs and turn them to fly balls and groundballs instead of whiffs, scatter them across varied games and Rays are in playoffs…it’s that close!