As the 2024 regular season winds down, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Yamamoto to return:
Prized right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched for the Dodgers back in June. A rotator cuff strain sidelined the $325MM rookie 14 starts into his big league career, but he’ll return to the roster to take on the Cubs in L.A. at 7:10pm local time with another former NPB ace, left-hander Shota Imanaga (2.99 ERA), on the mound for Chicago. Prior to his injury, Yamamoto had pitched to a sterling 2.94 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in 74 innings of work while striking out 27.9% of opponents.
The 26-year-old hurler’s return to action is a welcome development for a Dodgers rotation that has recently lost Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Gavin Stone to the injured list. Yamamoto will spend the next couple weeks preparing for his first stateside playoff run as the Dodgers look to fend off the Padres and Diamondbacks in the NL West. Corresponding moves will be necessary on both the active and 40-man rosters to accommodate Yamamoto, who is returning from the 60-day injured list.
2. Series Preview: Padres @ Mariners
After dominating the AL West for the first half of the season, the Mariners have stumbled to a 21-25 record in the second half that’s allowed the Astros to run them down and take possession of the division crown. With less than three weeks to go until the regular season concludes, Seattle’s playoff hopes are looking unlikely but not impossible, as FanGraphs gives the club a 7.7% chance to make the postseason, highest of all AL clubs not currently in playoff position.
In order to make it to October for just the second time since 2001, the Mariners will have to take down a Padres club that’s firmly in playoff contention itself. San Diego is 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but has a firm grasp on the top NL Wild Card spot with an 81-64 record that leaves them just a half game in front of Arizona but well ahead of the Braves and Mets as the two clubs battle for the third spot. The two-game set kicks off at 6:40pm local time this evening and will feature a pair of exciting pitching matchups, with veteran righty Yu Darvish (3.51 ERA) facing Mariners righty George Kirby (3.61 ERA) tonight. Tomorrow’s matchup will pit Michael King (3.10 ERA) against breakout youngster Bryan Woo (2.36 ERA).
3. MLBTR Chat Today:
With the calendar now flipped to September, all eyes are on the push to the postseason, where the Mets have recently pushed their way into the race with a torrid stretch and now sit just one game ahead of the Braves in the NL Wild Card standings. If you’re wondering about your team’s hopes of a World Series championship this fall or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
The Padres have a firm grasp on WC and well ahead of Braves and Mets? Apparently the MLB standings disagree. 4 teams are vying for 3 WC spots and are within 2.5 games of each other.
Padres are 92% to make the playoffs per FG
Dbacks 84
Braves 62
Mets 59
All 3 of those teams would have to pass the Padres.
Impossible? Of course not
Likely? Of course not
“Firm grasp” and “well ahead” have a 1% chance of accurately describing the situation.
Brew – I thought the same when within 3 lines it was a “firm grasp on top NL wildcard spot” to be followed by “just a half game ahead of Arizona”.
I think he meant to say they have a firm grasp on a wildcard spot, currently holding the top NL wildcard spot with a half game lead over Arizona.
I think the standings would agree with that because SD would have to crater over last 3 weeks to miss out entirely. Stranger things have happed!
“I think he meant to say they have a firm grasp on a wildcard spot,…”
There’s a lot of “I think he meant to say” in Opener writing.
@LT. The They don’t have to crater to miss the playoffs if the other teams play well. The way the Mets are playing and given that the Braves have the 2nd easiest schedule in NL ROS, the Pads could go 9-8 and not get into playoffs. Thats not cratering that’s playing very well against the tough schedule that remains ( LAD, AZ, Astros, Seattle, SF ). No margin for error at this point.
Just stay hot Pads, and don’t worry about scoreboard watchin’
The They don’t have to crater to miss the playoffs
============================
I don’t think it is remotely close to ‘crater’. They have 6 at home and 11 on the road. The 11 road games include Seattle, SF, LAD and AZ. 3 of their home games includes Houston.
It probably won’t happen, but it is pretty easy to go 8-9. That’s not cratering and might well be enough to miss the playoffs.
Just win the next game. And then win the next game, etc….
This playoff race has me stressed. It’s definitely a good thing to actually be in it at all, of course.
But I swear, this org is gonna lead me to take up smoking one of these days. Maybe I just need a trip to Pacers to calm down.
There is a good chance 1 of the 4 teams if not all of them play around .500 ball the rest of the way. Now crater to me means going like 6-11 maybe 7-12 is cratering. So they don’t have to crater to miss the playoffs.
Now the padres have a 2.5 game lead over the Braves plus they own the tiebreaker vs them. So the braves would have to be a game ahead of the padres in a head to head matchup. Making the difference more like 3.5 games.
I think a week from today the playoff picture at least for the padres maybe a little clearer. After the next two games the Mets play the Phillies 3 games and the Braves play the dodgers 4 games. The padres have a chance to expand their lead if they play well.
It’s baseball though so you never really know.
I might be at Pacer’s for 4 hours but the only song I hear is “We Are Phamily” over and over
Don’t get stabbed on your way out.
To paraphrase Deadpool, good thing Tommy wore his red pants that day!
Hey Gwynny and my other peeps who like the Pads, okay can we come to an understanding that Seattle’s less than ideal chances mean we really need these two wins, and that you guys could kindly rollover for us, and then go ahead and win out the rest of your games?? I could also throw in a Jay Buhner bobble-head and Eugenio Suarez bottle opener if that could sweeten the deal?? Please???
We might be delirious from the heatwave but last time you begged we let you win the series, Iggy… maybe it’s time for payback, right? C’mon, it’s not like you guys are gaining ground!
😉
@Ig. Interesting proposal, but in looking at the schedule I see another option. Just go belly up for us tonight and tomorrow, and we’ll sweep the Astros for ya, AND, have AJ pull some strings with his TX Rangers connection to ensure Seattle will win all 6 games.
Fine, I’ll toss in a Ha-Seong Kim game worn jock. League Certified. No guarantee he was the last to wear it though…
A.k.a. Handle your biznassss, Brewer!
Steinlagers today, cheers bud
What if we win these next two to split the Vedder Cup, then you go ’07 Phillies on the ‘Stros and take the AL West on the last day of the season?
OK Guys, Counter-Proposal: You let us win the four games in 2024 , we will let you win the four games in 2025. Love The Vedder Cup, that’s awesome. I met him at a Sonics game way back in the day just as Ten was getting big. Vedder loves his hoops.
Damn there’s a lot Padres fans at the game!!!! You guys have an awesome fanbase. Cool to see the support.
Okay…okay, okay,we’re down 2-0 already. Here’s the deal. Let’s split the series, and unify as sister cities to bring back the Sonics, annd the Pilots if you will, and Rockets to our exceptional beach communities. It’s time. But let’s understand, e.F the Chargers
It’s sad that we need to translate what Nick Deeds says to make sense in nearly every article he writes.
But it’s nice to know we are needed
Woo 3.84 xFIP
King 3.47 xFIP
Kirby 3.56 xFIP
Darvish 3.93 xFIP
Guessing that Ramirez gets the DFA for Yamamoto.
Or Honeywell
Or both with Bazooka coming back as well
Without Honeywell there’s really no one that can take down multiple innings. And with Buehler and Miller in the rotation, they’ll need distance from a middle reliever. Unless I’m forgetting someone the rest are 1 inning guys. You saw what happened to Joe Kelly when he went 1 2/3 when Kershaw went down. Needed 15 days to recover.
would not be surprised to see Grove optioned again. Though Honeywell is no star I agree LAD needs a long man.
I don’t think the multiple innings really matter because now October is coming and that’s when relievers double their pitch count
Probably more than one as Yamamoto, Glasow, Kershaw, and Stone will be on short pitch counts when they return. Relievers will probably cover the majority of the innings the rest of the way. If it was me, I’d drop Banda or other worse performing one inning guy to keep a couple of the bumped starters (Knack, Buehler) just to cover innings.
@sad
it’s not about October quite yet. It’s about getting there. As you pointed out below, with the returning starters on limited innings for a week or two, a long man might be all the more needed.
There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place – and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what’s possible.
Is that supposed to be depressing or uplifting?
The prophecy is in the eye of the beholder.
1.5 games ahead of the Mets isn’t well ahead
2 game lead in loss column over the Braves isn’t well ahead either
They’re lead over the Mets is actually 0.5 games since the Mets own the tie-breaker
I went to the fangraphs link you provided and it shows the M’s have an 8.3% chance of making the playoffs not 7.7. That’s a 7.8% difference.
These playoff probability percentages are pretty volatile… something so simple as a 3 game losing streak and everything goes haywire. You can go from 70% to 30% in like 3 days because all of these teams are so tightly bunched together.
runs
“These playoff probability percentages are pretty volatile… something so simple as a 3 game losing streak”
Well, that depends on the chances of a the game losing streak.
The Padres have played 145 games. So, 143 sets of 3 games. They have lost 3 games in a row 12 times – so there’s a roughly 1/12 chance they will lose 3 of 3 at any point
Dodgersbro Seattle had a 92% chance in June then 3 weeks later had a 9.6% chance. If and it is a HUGE if Seattle can play 80-90% ball when they go into the series with Houston and sweep it the chance greatly improves. Now the truth of it Seattle has that breakout game. You think maybe it clicked. Like so many times this season they score double digit runs or close they score 0-2 next handful of games.
Seattle will tread water the rest of the the season. Stanton will use the ROOT Sports excuse again. This time though might be true. They lost the Kraken and Trailblazers. 2 of their biggest deals. That will really hurt the bottom line. What once seemed like a great investment is coming back to bite them hard. Next 3-5 years almost every sport will be like MLS will have to buy the games through a streaming service. Not sure how much that will increase or decrease profits but it will cost fans. MLB and NFL have already started moving that way. Games on Peacock Hulu Apple+ and a few others show us that. Seattle needs to be rescued from ownership. Maybe Jody Allen could buy the team. Seems to be slow walking the sell of the Seahawks. Maybe she likes being a team owner.
You just described what will probably happen! God I hope that doesn’t
If my local team goes to a streaming service like apple+ or peacock I will just quit mlb all together
Given that 4 teams are just 2 games apart in the loss column with about 17-18 games to go, I think “tightly bunched together” better describes the situation and no teams is “well ahead” of the other..
After watching firsthand the Pads take 2 of 3 from the Orioles at OPACY in late July, I started following them in earnest. Hey. That’s a nice squad. Got some sheckles on ’em as League winner and WS winner. Nice odds.
@Jeff. I recall that series, it was at the beginning of the Pads 19-3 run that turned their season around. If Cease can get back on track and Yu can work into shape, and with their excellent bullpen, they would be tough team to take down in the playoffs. One of the 4 teams in the NL vying for the 3 WC spots isn’t going to make it despite playing really well. Hope that’s not the Pads.
Hilarious
Why get on a troll a guy because he makes a statement you don’t like or agree with? I have had trouble with the season not because of rules but because we have an owner that promised different results than the previous owner. Then sit and watch a 10 game lead evaporate in record time. Problem is I told my son it would happen. You can’t have the offense we do make no improvements over the offseason and expect to do better. Agree or disagree this be respectful. If you disagree shut up and say nothing. Your maturity level tells me you will attack me. Well I have been attacked by much smarter and better people so go ahead bring it on.
proton:
Way to throw down the gauntlet !
But maybe no one cares….
Why reply then? Seems you care. Funny thing is I don’t care what you think. I have officiated HS and up to semi pro sports for over 25 years. I have been called names that would surprise you by all sorts of people. I have never let their ignorance affect me nor your idiotic comment. Have a good day I have already forgotten you.
It’s 71 degrees in the NE, the heatwave has broken in SW, the sun is shining nearly everywhere and there is a full slate of ball games tonight. Rejoice.
no debating that
As long as grandkids are enjoying the game MLB is in good shape. Old folks don’t matter much in these things. Rightly so. The time when stuff was all about them is over. They had their turn at that.
Us old folks are the ones paying the bills in baseball. We are the long time season ticket holders in expensive seats that make it possible for teams to offer cheap seats. We are the ones bringing our grandkids to games. We are the ones that still subscribe to cable and satellite TV so teams have steady income. We are the ones getting our grandkids excited about baseball.
Yep. You are also the ones that are too selfish to let the game evolve and move forward. You are almost there. Just got to keep doing what you are doing but drop the “all about me” attitude to how it’s played.
very true. Our kids (early teens), and most of our guests, could never afford to attend the games, but are lucky their parents have season tickets. When I was 13 my paperboy job provided enough $ for me to pay my own way to games.
I miss the $10 outfield at the Murph/Q. Was an easy ticket, even as young teen. Had RF with Tony, CF with Finley and LF with Klesko, Vaughn, Rickey… good times!
I go back to the 17 ft wall, 330 down the line and 420 dead center. Only guys like Colbert, Kingman and Schmidt could clear it. Pre-game the chicken would launch golf balls over it with a 9-iron, sans liability insurance.
Had tickets like that at Shea back in the day.
The Padres are a good club, but the M’s always do well against them. It’s going to be a good series for sure.
Nick Deeds, how is being a half game up having a “firm grip” on the top spot in the NL Wild Card?