With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. AL Central showdowns:
The races for the American League Central and the American League Wild Card slots are heavily intertwined, and the first portion of this week will be pivotal in both. The Twins, who’ve been reeling of late and played at disappointing 7-13 pace over their past 20 games, will head to Cleveland for a four-game set against the division-leading Guardians. Cleveland is up four games on the Royals and 6.5 games on the Twins, so barring a sweep by Minnesota, the series isn’t likely to wildly alter the complexion of the division race.
That said, the Twins hold the third Wild Card spot in the AL at present. Minnesota is 2.5 games behind the Royals for the second Wild Card position, with the surging Tigers (13-7 in their past 20) suddenly just 2.5 games out of the final postseason spot. As fate would have it, the Tigers are in Kansas City for a three-game set that kicks off tonight. The top four teams in the AL Central are all either in possession of a playoff spot (Cleveland, K.C., Minnesota) or within 2.5 games of claiming one (Detroit). This pair of series should have massive playoff implications, both in terms of who qualifies and how the seeding plays out.
The Twins are set to send Pablo Lopez, Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound in Cleveland, where they’ll be respectively countered by Matthew Boyd, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo. In Kansas City, the three games will feature matchups of a TBD Tigers starter versus Seth Lugo;Â Casey Mize versus Cole Ragans;Â and Tarik Skubal versus Alec Marsh.
2. Series Preview: Phillies @ Brewers
A preview of a potential postseason series is set to begin today when the Phillies head to Milwaukee for a three-game set against the Brewers. The two clubs lead their respective divisions by all but insurmountable margins at this point, with the Phillies seeming poised to cruise into the playoffs with a bye through the Wild Card series and the Brewers currently sitting two games back of the Dodgers for the opportunity to do the same.
The series begins at 6:40pm local time this evening with lefty Ranger Suarez (3.05 ERA) on the mound for Philly against Brewers hurler Aaron Civale, who has pitched to a 4.57 ERA overall this year but boasts a tidy 3.84 figure in 11 starts since joining the club in July. Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (2.60 ERA) will be on the mound for Game 2 opposite fellow mid-season acquisition Frankie Montas, who sports a 4.49 ERA over all this year but has posted a 3.40 ERA in eight starts with the Brewers. The series wraps up on Monday with righty Aaron Nola (3.62 ERA) squaring off against Brewers staff ace Freddy Peralta (3.75 ERA).
3. Refsnyder nursing wrist injury:
The Red Sox have been without outfielder Rob Refsnyder since he was scratched from the lineup on Friday, and as noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive there remains a distinct possibility that he could wind up requiring a trip to the injured list due to the issue. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Cotillo) that while they hope that today’s day off will help to alleviate the soreness, the 33-year-old could go on the injured list if he isn’t feeling up to playing during the series against the Rays that starts tomorrow.
An injury to Refsnyder could be something of a final blow to a Red Sox club that, with a 75-75 record and playoff odds of just 2.6% per Fangraphs need things to go just about perfectly in order to squeeze into the playoffs. Looking ahead to 2025, Boston holds a $2MM club option of Refsnyder’s services for next year. His injury won’t impact what should be an easy decision to exercise that option, given the fact that the journeyman has slashed an excellent .284/.361/.472 with 11 homers in 306 trips to the plate this year.
Go Cleveland & Go Detroit!!!!!
And the end of this week it is Baltimore who will have a large effect on the final Wild Card spot. They play Detroit this weekend & end the season against Minnesota!!!!
@Dogs
O’s suck. Can’t beat garbage teams like the Rays, RSox, Tigers and got blown up by the WSox in that final game of the series.
O’s are cooked…
Tigers use to suck. Not the last 6 weeks. It’s how you’re playing TODAY.
Poor O’s. They are the opposite. Looks like they will exit the playoffs early.
Old York, not sure why you think Detroit is a garbage team. I believe their team ERA is best in baseball since the All Star break and they have the best record since August 11. They have a positive run differential on the year too, so I think they’re pretty solid.
The AL Central is garbage until they prove in the playoffs they deserve not to be labeled as garbage. Long overdue for two expansion teams to eliminate both Central divisions.
I guess the same can be said for the NL West.
The NL West had the finalist in 2023 and a WS winner in 2020. When was the last time the AL Central reached the World Series? 2016? AL Central hasn’t reached the ALCS since 2016.
AL West has been weak this year.
@its_happening, wow you are so stunning and brave!
You ok there?
Sounds like a bitter Yanks fan. Yeah, you guys have been killing it in the playoffs lately too! Lmao, typical. Can’t wait to see what they have to say when Soto leaves for more $$$ this offseason!
I don’t know if that means the ALC teams are garbage this year just because they haven’t made it to the ALCS in so long. That is two different things entirely. One individual season vs almost a decade of seasons, but wow I didn’t realize it had been that long.
Orange, the Central is still below .500 collectively against the East. It’s been that way for a long time. The AL West took a step backward this year.
But it paints a picture whether it’s now or the last decade, or even the last 30 years. The East in the AL has been the best, top to bottom. Both Centrals have not. I think it would be best for baseball to have 32 teams and have 8 team divisions, eliminate the Central.
That would be pretty interesting, how would you structure the Postseason?
If kept at 6 teams…top 2 records in AL and NL get a bye regardless of the division. The 4 teams in each league play Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, then play the top 2 teams Thursday. No days off, no break unless you win 2-0.
First place team gets 4 home games instead of 3 in the ALDS. Make the best record mean something. Top team gets home field Games 2-5.
If the playoffs were to be Top 16 teams (8 and 8), I would have the bottom 16 teams playing afternoon elimination-style games to play for the #1 draft pick.
Wow, it seems like you’ve given that a lot of thought and I think I’m on board with you. I like your PS format and the #1 draft pick idea a lot, as that would keep all of the fan bases involved even longer alongside the Postseason. Thanks for the conversation!
Thanks Orange. I appreciate the conversation too. Looking forward to more.
DTown if that’s directed at me, not a Yankees fan. AL East has reached the World Series more than the Central, with 9 World Series wins coming from Boston and New York. Your Tigers have had it easy and still can’t reach the postseason in a decade.
Even taking out the White Sox, the AL Central is still below .500 against the AL East. There is no way to say this except that the AL Central is nowhere near the best division in baseball. That belongs to the AL East, and the Central should be commended for no longer being the very worst division in baseball this year. They are 4th ahead of the NL central and AL west.
Very quietly Seattle has crept to within 2.5 games of the wild card. If you can pitch, you can win.
Aaaand no mention that Refsnyder is considering retiring after this. season.
He needs to start reading the articles written by his colleagues! LOL
mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/al-east-notes-refsnyder…
Hey fever, a player whose career earnings are at roughly 4 Million gets offered 2 mil for 1 final season probably does not retire, He may decide to retire if Boston does not exercise that option.
Yeah at this point I don’t think rob will retire because having an extra 2 million in todays economy is a huge difference
He still has a lot of money compared to the average American but is it enough money to retire at the young age of 34?
Well, actually his career earnings are now up to about five and half million. But what they hey, a million here, a million there, pretty soon it adds up to real money. I also think he’ll stick around if Boston exercises the option.
If you count next year’s exercised option which is an easy decision.
jays – I honestly have no idea what Ref’s motives are.
I think he either:
a) Truly wants to spend family time before becoming a coach/manager
or
b) With the great season he’s having, he knows he is worth a lot more than $2M and this is just a negotiating ploy
Impossible to predict how this works out, but I’m anticipating a resolution shortly after the season. I think Boston’s decision on a QO for TO will also be impacted by the Ref outcome.
@FPG Ref doesn’t haven’t any leverage being a career journeyman. He’s not in the position to demand a trade if the option is exercised.
YBC – True, but with an .833 OPS and much improved performance against RHP he has leverage to potentially force the Red Sox to renegotiate or trade him.
I know you’re probably remembering Ref’s days as a .643 OPS hitter with the Yankees, but he’s not that guy anymore.
He may retire and may not Fever. It is rare in today’s game with all the money thrown about to see guys retire for mostly personal reasons.
I don’t see O’Neil’s QO as a way of Boston deciding how to move forward. It’s a given now he gets 1 with Boras as O’Neil’s agent.. It’ll be quickly declined and 2 free draft picks 4 Boston, then on Boras and O’Neil to find how to make up for monies declined.. The Boras way u know.
Agreed Fever. I think two teams with a need for a RH outfield bat will start bidding.
john – Agree with you about being rare, but there’s always the exceptions. It’s like if my contract with my employer was up and they wanted to renew at a 20% paycut, I wouldn’t stay. How many star athletes would give it all up to join the US military? Tillman did. Always exceptions.
Industry insiders are saying TO would get around $36/3 in free agency. That’s because he’s a one-dimensional player now, he hits homeruns. The high number of strikeouts, the drop in speed, the decline in defense, that all makes him a perfect candidate for a $21M pillow contract. It’s not a sure thing he’d decline.
Fever- I get u there and see like 0 chance he gets 20m+ AAV over 3+ seasons. It’s that Boras factor in play.. Look for every 5c under the cushions and blame everyone else when anything goes wrong (market, collusion etc)
If O’neil was rep’d by just hard agencies.. Wasserman for example would have thoughts on the QO, but can already see the boras hype machine..”30HR! cannon arm! plays all over OF!. it will be those silk covered books of his of olden times, spouted out of a forked tongue instead and O’neil isn’t the quality o player to benefit from the bs he spouts, rather get financially hurt.
Phillies and Brewers have their magic numbers down to low single digits. Barring a collapse from either side, both teams should wrap up the NL East and NL Central by next Sunday.
Brew crew’s magic number is 4. but seem to have a tougher schedule than the Cubs.
Not many games are actually lost by manager. Last night Murphy did just that for the Brewers. Not helpful trying to run down Dodgers or Phillies for that bye!
Well, Dodgers blew up the Braves in that last inning. 7 runs!
R. Iglesias: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 1 BB
Not helpful to my Padres either, letting Dbacks get a comeback win, but you need a 10 run lead on them to feel comfortable. But beggars cant be choosers, I appreciated the Friday and Saturday wins.
Some Tiger fans will beg to differ. The Tigers have lost many, many 1 run games and Hinch, in his brilliance, shifts second baseman up the middle. Good hitters just punch an RBI through the right side…….happens all the time.
Yes. Managers do lose games. We have experienced it.
Even tougher when their manager blows games like last night…..
Its 3 now. I cant imagine that being blown, schedule difficulty or not.
The Cubs are 10 games back right now with 23 games left. That is not going to be overcome. Even if the Cubs went 15-8 , they would need the Brewers to go 4-19
That would be the biggest choke in mlb regular season history
Stop it.
– Gene Mauch
The 2007 Mets had an even worse collapse … to the benefit of the Phillies.
Would that be forever known as the amazin collapse?
FWIW. Boston held down 1st place, I’m going to throw out half dozen times on 9/1 during the 1970’s, then would promptly go on a month long collapse, all but 1975 and partial ’78 seasons. It became so consistent that O’s manager Earl Weaver would make jokes about it before September ever arriving, saying his Orioles could count on Boston’s collapse come September, which they always did.
There are a few elder Sox fans here who remember that decade of futility and collapses, 1 yr.. 77, maybe 78 they entered September with around a 10g lead and collapsed.
Old Sox fans know a thing or 2 regarding failing, ditto seeing them lose a WS in 7g 3 times.
@johnnyrealtime – Closer to 13 games left, but your point is well taken.
Good call, bad math on my part
Hopefully the Phillies get the good Aaron Nola when the Brewers series wraps up on Wednesday (not Monday, as stated above). Could really use a good Ranger Suarez start tonight as well. Cristopher Sanchez is pitching so well, especially at home, that it’s up for debate whether or not he should be moved up in the potential postseason rotation.
I hope the opposite! I’m just hoping for a good series.
Christopher Sanchez is the most underrated pitcher in baseball, by far.
I don’t need to provide you ratings, do you see people talking about how good cris Sanchez is everyday like they do ohtani acuna ETC.?
@frogger,
Show us your ratings first.
Good luck, Detroit! But not too much luck! I’d rather see you in the Postseason than Minnesota.
Being a Tigers fan, that 2.5 games back looks good (especially with MIN going against CLE) but it’s actually 3.5 with the tie breaker. We own the tie breaker against BOS and SEA but not with the Twinkies. Hoping CLE can take atleast 3 outta 4 this week!
Yes! Go Tigers! It’s exciting they are still relevant in mid September!