The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.
It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.
Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.
Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.
The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.
Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.
The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.
Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.
Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.
Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.
Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.
Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.
Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.
Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.
Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.
Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.
All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.
Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.
It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.
DodgersBro
A chart is worth a thousand words
pmollan
Vaunted Brewer pitching lab strikes again!
Very Barry
Nothing but respect for the Brewers as an organization. Sad how jacked up the economics of baseball has become. Competing against Dodgers, Yankees, etc., who have deep pockets, with 2 hands tied behind their backs financially.
gbs42
The owners could increase revenue sharing…
JimOToole
Chris Hook is the rare pitching coach who can translate biomechanics into language that pitchers can relate to. He is the stud of that organization.
bpskelly
Im a Cardinals fan, and as much as I hate what the Cardinals have become, I actually love what the Brewers have become.
While they DO have some high end prospects producing, what they have mostly is an organization that does the the right way and produces major league players.
Superstars, MLB starters, bench players. They produce guys who can produce and bring positive production to the roster.
The Cardinals used to do that. All the time. Bill Murray’s “Cardinals Devil Magic” was just that. No more. We’re a rudderless ship.
The Brew Crew are most certainly not. They don’t get enough credit for how they’re run because they’re not on the coasts or a major media market. But they are the real deal.
Very Barry
Rebuild should have started at the trade deadline. Cardinals fans do not like mediocre. This current group is very, very mediocre. No reason to discuss an extension for Goldschmidt unless he is willing to take 1-year at a number south of $10 million. Clean house. Start with whoever is in charge of developing minor league talent. Lack of viable trade chips is gonna make this hard. It must be done.
UWPSUPERFAN77
TO VB: Goldy worth no more than what you say. He needs a new environment. Still Good, not a Star anymore.
BigV
Agree
wrich
A great organization , I wish the Reds could learn from this franchise
920kodiak
Reds are going to do Reds things.
case
If the city is extra good maybe Santa will bring you a GM that values starting pitching.
sphenreckson
Challenges of pitching at Miller Park (American Family Field as it’s called now)? It’s been playing pretty much neutral for several years
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
The brewers are the most out of nowhere team this year, even more surprising than Cleveland
afsooner02
Maybe to some but not to real Brewers fans who knew the preseason hype of Chicago, Cinci and StL was just that.
Larry Brown's crank
bull….100% garbage
afsooner02
Correct, your takes are just that
twisted laces
Pretty solid clubhouse
Ben Kouchnerkavich
Great breakdown Anthony!
Bucket Number Six
Title should be The Brewers’ Rotation Is Held Up By Its Defense.
stevewpants
The great Brewers defense should have at least been mentioned when discussing the improvements of Civale and Montas since their arrivals.
UWPSUPERFAN77
To BN6 A big factor! Thank You!
lowtalker1
Teams that worth their grains they haven’t been that great
gbs42
“worth their grains”
Wheat are you saying? You oat to be more clear. I can barley guess what this might mean.
Samuel
It figures that a coaching staff that can make veteran catchers that they acquire better then they’ve ever been, would understand how to work with pitchers (and most of these catchers regress quite a bit after the Brewers let them go and another team picks them up).
For years here I rapped Gary Sanchez when he was catching for the Yankees. Kept writing that he was killing their pitching staff, and if they wanted to DH him or play him at 1B, that was fine, but he wasn’t a great bat either. When the Yankees dumped him Sanchez bounced from the Twins to the Mets to the Padres in 2-1/2 years – and was terrible catching with all of them. This year the Brewers got him and worked with him. I was stunned watching him catch for them. He’s centered, balanced, doesn’t lunge at balls or try to catch them stabbing like an infielder. Best yet, the guy actually throws to 2B on steal attempts accurately and hard. It’s night and day. Watch a Brewers game that he’s catching in.
–
Along those lines I wrote earlier this year that the Brewers were in a state of transformation and that fans calling for them to get to the WS 2024 were a bit premature – give them year or two to develop some starting pitchers. After watching at least part of 25-30 Brewers games the past 2 months, it would not surprise me if they represent the NL in the WS this year. They’re a strong fundamental-based team. Any of the Brewers, D-Backs, Padres, Dodgers or Phillies can get to the WS this year. Both the NL and AL playoffs in 2024 are going to be the best in years.
–
Can quote all the individual baseball statistics. But the reality is this; Teams that have great coaching staffs at this time in MLB history make all the difference in the world. Coaches matter. The manager matters. Most of all – the organization matters. The best ones get the most out of the players they have under contract…and the ML team wins.
JimOToole
The Brewers have had the best catching instructor in the majors for a long time in Charlie Greene, who now carries the title of bullpen coach. Greene was the coach behind Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado’s success behind the plate.
UWPSUPERFAN77
To Samuel: You give out a lot of good information.
SkenesandSlopes
11-13 against the NL East and 9-12 against the NL West (3 games remaining with Colorado). The league is due for two new expansion teams and should split the divisions back to East and West. Brew Crew can take a top two spot in the NL side of the postseason despite perhaps not being a top 5 team in the NL arguably.
Old York
Might be the Brewers year to get the monkey off their back and move onto the NLCS.
jbeerj
Thank you for calling it Miller Park!
JimOToole
You can add lefty DL Hall to the Brewers’ rotation now that he’s over his injuries. Hall came from Baltimore along with Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade. Both the rotation and bullpen will be strengthened for the postseason from what the Brewers have had to work with all season. Credit is long overdue to pitching coach Chris Hook, who is every bit as valuable to the Brewers’ success as Pat Murphy. Hook is on the same level as Dave Duncan, former Cardinals and A’s pitching coach, and he deserves some national notoriety.
UWPSUPERFAN77
I am as critical of the brew as any fan on this site. I am amazed how this season has turned out. I love the team and baseball, Good article, accept Fastball Freddie is not a Star. He is good. Colin Rea is the best on our staff. We are making steak out of pork burger Just great. No logical explanation other than our Development of the Young guy’s and the Ham And Egger, Never Weres, and projects on our pitching staff. I can live with it for 2 more months
Jose Tattoo-vay
And yet they still won’t win a WS.
SharksFan91
I was generally wrong about this team before the season. While winning the NL Central is an achievement despite being one of the weaker divisions. I doubt Milwaukee will make it to the WS. In saying that, I believe there’s more optimism to change that this fall if they stay healthy.
For a change, this team is fun to watch in comparison to the recent past. The biggest difference in this year’s team versus the past decade of Brewer teams is more ATHLETES!! Despite Murphy and Lane.
MLBTR needs to hire editors
This is a transactions news site, not a Brewers fan blog. There is nothing in here about transactional news. No rumors about someone getting an extension, none of them are free agents after the year, nothing. Just here to try and make the team or players look good. All in all, another puff piece for a dying site trying to remain relevant by being a discount Fangraphs.
Why on earth would I pay for this when the writers at Fangraphs analyze on-field things much better and for free than the hack writers (Polishuk excepted) here? Stop this nonsense.
Also “Effective as Rea and Myers had been” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. It’s “AS effective as Rea and Myers had been.” You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It isn’t optional, just like correct grammar isn’t optional for professional writers. And there’s no reason to use passive voice here. Just say ”as effective as Rea and Myers were.” Stop being wordy. Hire editors.