A lot has gone wrong for Atlanta this year. They came into the year as one of the best on-paper clubs. Prior to any regular season games being played, the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 25.3% chance of winning the World Series and a 98.5% chance of making the postseason, both of those figures being the highest in the league.
It appears we may be living in one of the 1.5% of alternate universes where they don’t make the playoffs, as their season is currently on the brink. They are two games behind the Mets and 1.5 behind the Diamondbacks for the final two National League Wild Card spots with less than a week to play. They could still squeak in, especially as they’re hosting the Mets for three this week, but it’s going to be tight. That’s thanks to a combination of factors, as several players on the roster have either underperformed or missed significant time due to injury.
Things may have been even worse if not for a handful of positive developments. The Chris Sale pickup has worked out beautifully, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Signing Reynaldo López and moving him back to a starting role has also worked out well. Marcell Ozuna is having his best season in years. But they’ve also gotten a huge performance from rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, which is a big development for the club both this year and in the future.
Schwellenbach came into the year with fairly limited experience. The righty was drafted in 2021 but had Tommy John surgery afterwards, which kept him from making his professional debut until 2023. Once he was able to retake the mound, the results were strong. He pitched 65 innings on the farm last year, split between Single-A and High-A, allowing 2.49 earned runs per nine. He struck out 21.6% of opponents and kept his walks down to a 6.3% rate.
Another eight starts in the minors to start 2024, between High-A and Double-A, led to him getting a quick push to the majors. Atlanta had already lost Spencer Strider to season-ending UCL surgery and needed help in the rotation.
Schwellenbach was added to the roster and made his major league debut on May 29, just two days before his 24th birthday. He now has 19 starts under his belt and looks the part of a legit big league starter. In 109 2/3 innings, he has a 3.61 ERA. He has struck out 26.3% of batters faced and limited walks to a 4.9% clip.
Despite his fairly short track record as a professional, he seems to have a diverse and polished arsenal. Per Statcast, he has thrown six different pitches this year: a four-seamer, a sinker, cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. He has thrown all six of those offerings at least 7.4% of the time, and all but the sinker have been thrown at a 13.6% clip or higher. He hasn’t leaned on any individual pitch more than the 28.4% rate of four-seamers, making him difficult to predict.
Perhaps there’s an argument for him using the splitter a bit more, as he has some noticeable platoon splits at the moment. He’s held righties to a dismal line of .203/.242/.355 but lefties have a potent .267/.321/.462 performance against him so far. He has thrown that splitter 23.3% of the time against lefty hitters and allowed only a .161 batting average. However, his four-seamer, curveball and and cutter have each allowed a .308 average or higher while being thrown at least 13.8% of the time.
His slider and sinker are being thrown less than 10% of the time against lefties with solid results. Opponents are hitting .222 against the slider and .214 against the sinker. Schwellenbach has a 33.9% whiff rate when throwing sliders to lefties. Perhaps he could find better results by altering his pitch mix or maybe things will even out with the curveball. Opposing lefties are hitting .308 against it but his xBA is just .239 and his whiff rate is 41.9%.
Given the diversity of his pitch mix and the fact that he’s only getting his feet wet at the big league level, it seems fair to expect that he’ll figure out a way to tamp down on the big splits going forward.
Regardless of how that plays out in the future, he’s already a useful pitcher in the present. Though Atlanta is currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they would undoubtedly be even further back if Schwellenbach hadn’t hit the ground running in the big leagues. Some missteps would have been understandable given that he had limited experience and skipped over Triple-A entirely, but he has more than held his own and helped keep the club in the race this year. Guys like Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Darius Vines and Allan Winans all struggled in their major league looks this year, so the staff likely would have been in much worse shape if Schwellenbach didn’t take the ball those 19 times.
It’s also a key development for the club in the long term. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both set for free agency, leaving two holes in next year’s rotation. Fried seems likely to command a nine-figure deal that Atlanta hasn’t given to a free agent before. Morton is about to turn 41 years old and has hinted at thoughts of retirement in recent years.
Without Fried or Morton and with Strider set to miss the start of next year, Atlanta was slated to start 2025 with a rotation core of Sale and López. As mentioned, Sale is having a great year but he’s about to turn 36 and didn’t pitch much from 2020 to 2023. López is also having a strong season but is converting from the bullpen to the rotation and has perhaps hit a bit of a wall, as he’s gone on the IL twice in the second half, with the second stint currently ongoing.
Having Schwellenbach in that rotation picture makes it look much better and he’ll be a huge help from a financial perspective as well. Atlanta has a bunch of significant contracts on the books due to signing a number of extensions in recent years. That gives them a lot of continuity but also less financial wiggle room in the offseasons.
Since Schwellenbach was called up at the end of May, he won’t be able to get a full year of service time in 2024. Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Schwellenbach isn’t eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which means he can’t get a full year of service via Rookie of the Year voting. That means he won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2026 at the earliest, if he earns Super Two status, and can be controlled for six more seasons after this one.
Per RosterResource, the club has a competitive balance tax number of $197MM for next year. They will likely trigger club options on Ozuna ($16MM), Travis d’Arnaud ($8MM) and Aaron Bummer ($7.25MM). Bummer’s option has a $1.25MM buyout and Ozuna’s buyout is $1MM, though d’Arnaud’s has none. That means those three would add $29MM. Arbitration raises will be needed if they want to keep Jarred Kelenic and Ramón Laureano.
The club will be near next year’s $241MM base CBT threshold at the beginning of the offseason. Trading one of Ozuna or Soler could give them some extra wiggle room but they will have some things on the offseason to-do list. Upgrading on Orlando Arcia at shortstop could be part of their plans, and same for Kelenic/Laureano in the outfield. The starting rotation will definitely be a target area this winter but Schwellenbach should give them one fewer slot to fill, which could allow them to be more aggressive in addressing their remaining needs.
What I enjoy most about this is ATLs front office saying it sees no evidence to support the idea that a fairly large innings increase leads to more arm injuries. Now whether it’s true or not I can’t say but despite treating the other side of the narrative as true there are more injuries than ever. I merely like the contrarian position and looking for evidence.
It’s not about innings, it’s about pitches. It’s about the brutality inconsistent strike zones. It’s the constant tinkering with the game. It’s all about the dollar bill.
In terms of pitch count we’ve had pitcher after pitcher for decades say it is more about the stressful innings than the amount of pitches. Yet we still have this 100 pitches thing we go to merely because triple digits sounds like so much more and it’s a nice round number. Completely unscientific in an era that claims to be so meticulously scientific.
First off most pitchers don’t make it to 100 pitches these days. So many of them are pulled in the 80s or low 90s, so I’m not sure what you’re suggesting.
In fact, guys tend to get pulled before going through the order for a third time as a more likely reason than total number of pitches. If you think pitch count is what is getting most guys pulled I wonder if you watch baseball. At the very least, you know very little about what’s happening if that’s how you think the decision is made most often.
No Mr. Smart I’m saying when they are allowed to go deep like that they get pulled right at 100 pitches. Yes obviously they don’t like them to go thru the lineup a third time but there are pitchers that they allow to do so. Look at your own team with Sale and Morton. WHEN THEY ARE allowed to extend the pitch count the idea is to not go much over 100. Sale recently went like 111 because of a foul ball fest but clearly the idea was 100-105. Morton has three times gone 105. The idea is no matter how well and easy it is going that 100 is some mark that is risky to pass. Not for performance as much as for injury. Every time Morton, Sale, or Fried pitches the idea is right around 100 pitches if they are going well. If a Braves pitcher is pitching great the guy will get up in the pen right around 95 pitches every time. Not 90 or 92. Why is that?
Listen to Snitker talk about how a guy will be pitching great and he’ll come out after 80-90 pitches TO GET SOME EXTRA REST. The idea was he’d ordinarily be allowed to approach 100. Now sure not every team approaches it that way but some do. Until recently everyone did except a few teams.
Take the first Brave I look up. Morton has 23 times this year gone between 91-105 pitches. His last 6 he’s been right around 100 every time. When he isn’t it’s because he’s been bad. Similarly look at Sale. Every start basically this season has been around 95-110. The higher ones are where the last two batters extend a little more than they thought.
My god pathetic braves fan try 90 pitches by the 5th. Watching Carlton throw 120 and not break a sweat gives me the authority to tell you DISMISSED!
Laughing
It’s mainly data driven. It’s not the 90’s or 80’s anymore where managers were alloud to rely also on what they were able to “see”
I agreed with you. Idk if you’re talking to me. If you are you don’t know how to read.
Pedro Martinez said it in an interview a long time ago, so did John Smoltz. Today’s training method and high velocity leads to more injuries.
Hopefully the Braves can trade Soler without paying most of his salary. Also, maybe they can save a little bit by giving d’Arnaud a two year deal for less per year.
I see no reason to give d’Arnaud two year contract as Drake Baldwin is nearly ready for the majors.
If Baldwin is ready, then Murphy will eventually be traded. It’s good to have a veteran catcher as backup and mentor.
Since d’Arnaud will be 36 next year, it’s much more likely 2025 will be his last year as a Braves
They signed Murphy to a long-term deal for a reason. He’s one of the best defensive backstops and game callers in the game. They won’t be trading him.
Then they’ll trade Baldwin, opening a spot for Travis.
No reason to have Murphy on roster but he is. I think this office aproach is to go with veteran catchers unless a prospect is really special.
Wishful thinking. The Braves will use Soler as an outfilder next year.
Hopefully, this is the end of Fried.
What did fried do wrong
He got on TradeAcuna’s bad side.
In 2022 Strider was the Braves’ big surprise in the rotation. In 2023 Elder took a big step forward (though a big step backward this year). In 2024 it’s been Schwellenbach. Next year the Braves have three candidates – Smith-Shawver, Waldrep and Drue Hackenberg.
I believe that Hackenberg willbe the surprise next year by taking a big step forward.
EM41;
MLB Organizations that make their players under contract better
are the ones that win.
The Braves farm system is never one of the highest ones ranked (recently they’ve been one of the lowest). But every year it seems
that they come up with an impact player or two. Which tells us a
lot about the Braves, and even more about the countless public
baseball ranking publications.
Not to mention Kyle Wright in 2022, Ian Anderson in 2021,. Fried in 2019/2020. Soroka in 2019.
But here is my take. The Braves have these guys who exceed expectations for one year or maybe a little more(Fried being the exception) because they give so many pitchers the opportunity. Throughout those years they had plenty of guys who ended up being AAA or maybe Quad-A pitchers and really never panned out.
It’s like everyone giving the Seahawks and Pete Carroll so much love for their drafts. The reality is they gutted their team of vets over a decade ago and pretty much just ran evdeyr draft pick out there. Some didn’t pan out, but over time, many of them did, and I believe it’s just by continually getting playing time against competition that forces you to be at your best.
Even the Dodgers do this. They have oodles of money and could probably buy everything they need in free agency, but they always find ways to give their young guys chances. Some of them pan out, some don’t, but people always remember the ones that do.
On the other side, you have organizations that constantly go after free agents outside of their prime or about to fall out of their prime to fill holes and then if they start stinking they don’t bring the yyoung guys in. No growth there.
Say what ever happened to AJ smith-shawver?
He’s not ready.
Spent most of the season in AAA or on the injured list. He’s still only 21, so has plenty of time to get better
Double A and Snit are both the best in MLB. No matter what else happens this season, what they have done with the (terrible) cards they have been dealt is beyond compare.
A great team on the field, in the clubhouse, and in the front office.
He was just Schwell this year for the Braves.
Bryce elder should grow the beard again then maybe he will be a MLB caliber pitcher again. Don’t change what works.
Scwellenbach’s highest value to ATL is that he seems to own the Mets…
What’s with all these injuries? Guys used to play through the pain; it built character! Now, everyone’s coddled like they’re made of glass. And don’t get me started on these so-called ‘wild card’ spots; just a way for the weak to sneak in when they can’t earn their way. Bah, the game’s gone soft!”
And how much is this guy’s agent paying MLBTR to make him look good with this player-friendly schlock? Quoting stats to help goose his arbitration numbers? Putting this under the noses of the front office execs who read this site daily?
Stop trying to be Fangraphs. Anyone can find the stats this writer talks about on publicly available sites like Fangraphs and Statcast. And not only does Fangraphs do a better job of it, they don’t hide their content behind a paywall.
Stay in your lane, MLBTR. You’re a transactions-focused site. You’ve never been a statistical analysis site and you never will be, especially with this superficial tripe above that you’re trying to pass off as harder-hitting analysis.
@MLBTRnthe: You’re certainly entitled to your opinion, but I strongly disagree with you.
So Millenials get to keep their 6.2%? Lucky dogs.