A few months ago, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took an early look at the progress of last winter’s Rule 5 draftees. Seven of those players were on their teams’ active rosters, while two more were rehabbing injuries. Only one 2023 Rule 5 pick was returned to his original organization before Opening Day — and he went on to be the headlining piece in a key deadline trade. With most of the season in the books, let’s take a look at their performances in a larger sample.
A quick refresh for those unfamiliar with the process: the Rule 5 draft is a means of getting MLB opportunities to players who might be blocked with their current organization. Teams can draft certain players who are left off their original club’s 40-man roster. The drafting team needs to keep that player on the MLB roster or injured list for their entire first season. If they do so, they’d gain the player’s contractual rights permanently.
If the drafting team decides not to carry the player on the roster at any point during his rookie year, they need to place him on waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the player is offered back to his original organization — which does not need to carry him on either the MLB or 40-man rosters to take him back. A team can keep an injured Rule 5 pick on the major league IL, but they’d eventually need to carry him on the active roster for 90 days. If the player misses the entire season, the Rule 5 restriction carries over to the following year.
We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, so it’s safe to presume the six players who have held an active roster spot will survive the year. One player has spent the entire season on the injured list, so his Rule 5 status will roll over into next season if he sticks on the 40-man over the winter. Two others were returned earlier in the summer.
On a Major League Roster
Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)
The A’s had MLB’s worst record in 2023. That gave them the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. They used it on Spence, who had turned in a 4.47 ERA across 163 Triple-A innings in the Yankees’ system. New York’s 10th-round pick in 2019 has been a solid contributor on a more competitive Oakland pitching staff.
Spence opened the year in the bullpen. He worked 25 1/3 innings over his first 11 appearances, pitching to a 4.26 earned run average behind a decent 22.2% strikeout rate and huge ground-ball numbers (54.4%). The A’s moved Spence into their rotation in the middle of May. He has been similarly effective as a starter. Spence has worked to a 4.34 ERA over 21 starts, which is tied for the second-most on the team. His strikeout and grounder rates have each dropped a few points, but he’s still getting worm burners at a solid 48.5% clip. Spence doesn’t issue many free passes and has looked the part of a durable fourth/fifth starter. That’d be a fantastic outcome for a Rule 5 pick. He should at least get to compete for a season-opening rotation job next spring.
Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)
Molina, 22, has stuck with a rebuilding Colorado team despite a rough debut season. He’s allowing more than six earned runs per nine through 56 innings out of the bullpen. The Venezuelan-born righty has fanned 15% of opposing hitters with a meager 7.2% swinging strike percentage. While pitching in Coors Field should be a challenge for any rookie, Molina has actually fared much worse away from altitude. He carries a 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 home innings against a ghastly 11.10 mark over 24 1/3 frames on the road. Molina’s strikeout and walk profile isn’t good no matter where he has pitched, but he’s done a much better job keeping the ball on the ground in Denver.
Tough results aside, the Rox don’t have a pressing need to push Molina off the roster. Their place in the standings and overall lack of bullpen talent affords them rope to continue giving him a chance to develop. He throws reasonably hard (94.7 MPH average fastball speed) and managed decent results as a starting pitcher in the upper minors last year.
Nasim Nuñez, SS, Nationals (selected from Marlins)
A glove-first middle infielder, Nuñez has been the 26th man in Washington all season. Manager Dave Martinez has used him primarily as a late-game substitute. Nuñez has made 13 starts at shortstop and 41 appearances overall. He has 10 hits (nine singles and a double) in 51 plate appearances with eight walks and ten strikeouts. Nuñez has stolen six bases and laid down four sacrifice bunts. There’s minimal offensive upside but he has probably done enough to stick on the 40-man roster as a depth infielder.
Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)
Fernandez has had one of the better debut campaign in this year’s class. The 26-year-old righty carries a 3.13 ERA over 63 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen. Fernandez is narrowly behind Andrew Kittredge for the team lead in relief innings. He has quickly pitched his way into Oli Marmol’s circle of trust. Fernandez is fourth on the team — behind closer Ryan Helsley, Kittredge, and JoJo Romero — in average leverage index (measuring how impactful the situation is when a pitcher enters the game) in the second half.
It hasn’t been completely smooth sailing. Fernandez’s command has come and gone, and he had an atrocious August. He’s capable of missing bats and handling hitters from both sides of the plate, though, and he has posted a nice rebound this month. Even if his command could push him into a sixth or seventh inning role, this was a good pick.
Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected from Rangers via trade with Mets)
Losing Fernandez might’ve stung the Red Sox more had they not found a reliever who has been even better. Slaten owns a 3.16 earned run average through 51 1/3 innings with the peripherals to match. The New Mexico product has fanned more than a quarter of batters faced against a tidy 4.4% walk rate. He’s getting swinging strikes at a massive 14.4% clip while leading opponents to chase more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone.
Aside from a six-week injured list stint because of elbow inflammation, Slaten couldn’t have made a much better first impression. He already looks the part of a late-game weapon and has been used as such by Alex Cora. With Kenley Jansen headed to free agency, Slaten could battle Liam Hendriks for the closer role next season. The Sox had one of the best Rule 5 picks in recent history when they snagged Garrett Whitlock a few years ago. It’s a new front office, but they look like they’ve had a similarly valuable hit on Slaten.
Currently On Major League Injured List
Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)
Kolek has occupied a low-leverage relief role for San Diego skipper Mike Shildt. The 27-year-old righty has allowed a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at a massive 55.9% clip but has a well below-average 18.5% strikeout rate. Kolek has done a nice job staying off barrels but hasn’t shown the bat-missing ability to push his way up the bullpen depth chart.
The Padres placed Kolek on the injured list just after the deadline due to elbow tendinitis. They moved him to the 60-day IL at the start of September. He’s eligible to return for San Diego’s playoff run, but his season could be over. Kolek surpassed 90 days on the active roster before the injury, so he won’t be subject to any restrictions next year.
Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees)
Coleman underwent Tommy John surgery while he was a member of the Yankees system early in 2023. Texas had hoped he’d return in the middle of the season, but GM Chris Young announced in May that wouldn’t happen. He has spent the whole season on the 60-day IL. Texas would need to put Coleman back on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. If they carry him all winter, he’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the active roster whenever he’s healthy.
Returned to Original Organization
Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (returned to Yankees)
Yankees minor leaguers went first and second in the draft. While Spence stuck around, the No. 2 pick didn’t last long in Kansas City. Sauer made the Opening Day roster and pitched 14 times in low-leverage relief. Opponents tagged him for 14 runs on 23 hits and 11 walks over 16 1/3 innings. The Royals couldn’t afford to stash him as a development flier in the bullpen, particularly once it became clear they had a real chance to make the playoffs.
Kansas City returned Sauer to the Yankees in late May. New York initially assigned him to Triple-A, but he was blitzed for 15 runs over just 8 1/3 innings in 10 appearances. New York demoted him to Double-A Somerset in early July. Sauer has found his footing there, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks over 17 outings. He’d qualify for minor league free agency this offseason if the Yanks don’t put him on the 40-man roster.
Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (returned to Red Sox)
Drohan never pitched in the majors with the White Sox. The southpaw underwent a nerve decompression surgery in his throwing shoulder in February. He began the season on the 60-day injured list. Drohan was hit hard in a limited sample after beginning a rehab assignment, so Chicago decided not to activate him to the MLB roster. They returned him to Boston in June. Drohan made two Triple-A starts, spent some time on the development list, and is now back on the IL with continued shoulder issues. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t healthy enough to get a legitimate MLB opportunity, but Drohan at least collected major league pay and service time for a couple months while on Chicago’s injured list.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B, Guardians (returned to Diamondbacks)
De Los Santos was a surprising pick, as the power-hitting infielder was coming off a mediocre season (.254/.297/.431) in Double-A. He didn’t hit at all in Spring Training and Cleveland returned him to the Diamondbacks before Opening Day. He had a monster first half for the Snakes, blasting 28 home runs in fewer than 400 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Within a few months, De Los Santos went from unsuccessful Rule 5 pick to the centerpiece of the Marlins’ trade package for controllable high-leverage reliever A.J. Puk.
He has cooled off substantially since the deal. De Los Santos has another 11 homers in 44 games with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate, but he’s striking out a lot and getting on base at a meager .283 clip. It’s a difficult profile to pull off — particularly since he’s not considered a strong defender who might end up at first base — but the Marlins are likely to put him on the 40-man roster rather than expose him to the Rule 5 for a second straight year.
Yankees could’ve used Spence this year. Nice get for the A’s.
Anthony Molina has been much better this season than the numbers say. He was torched in his first game and gave up 6 runs and getting only one out and he was also forced to “wear it” in a blowout from the Tigers when the rest of the pen was tired. Take away those two games and his ERA is probably under 4.00.
Molina has apparently been pretty bad all year. June was the only month with an ERA below 5.00.
I believe I learn more watching every game than you do reading some numbers off a spreadsheet. But whatever you want to think.
Math isn’t your strong point. I will guess your scouting ability is on par with your math.
I’ll tell you, the game’s gotten soft. Too many stats, too much patience, and not enough grit. You think Dizzy Dean or Lefty Grove needed all these special rules to prove they belonged?
Roberto Clemente, Christy Mathewson, Hack Wilson, Bobby Bonilla, Johan Santana & George Bell would probably disagree with you
@Ezpkns34
If they aren’t good enough to play, they shouldn’t be in the lineup.
If talent evluators were perfect, sure. Think we have an abundance of evidence to disprove that notion though, most notably by a handful of HOFers being Rule 5 picks along with dozens of all stars
HOF is not an objective measure of talent. Plenty of guys in the HOF who cheated or just weren’t qualified for it but got in because they knew someone. I wouldn’t put any value in wondering if a guy in the HOF somehow makes him a star player. Most of the guys in there should be in the the Hall of Okay but not fame.
No, you’re right, Roberto Clemente & Christy Mathewson finessed their way into the HOF through political maneuvering, how silly of me
My point is, no need to store so many guys on your roster just for the fact of collecting cards. Who was blocking Clemente & Mathewson from playing on their original teams? No one…
Well clearly someone was blocking them or they wouldn’t have been eligible to be selected, no? Hence the point of the Rule V Draft so that teams can’t, in fact, store so many guys on their rosters
@Old York @ Ezp
All great players, all good points…
But any chance we could reach the 21sr century?
@AsFan
22 of the Rule 5 All Stars got their AS nods in the 21st century, a few Cy’s this century too
Mistakes were made.
So in over 100 years, you have named 6 people that benefited.. That’s not exactly a mountain of evidence.
@hiflew
As I said, there have been dozens of all stars who were Rule 5 draftees, apologies for not listing all of them by name and just assuming the advent of Google left that to be less than necessary
That also presupposes that only All Star or better level players count as successful or benefiting from stopping teams from being able to hoard players as opposed to starter level players finding new homes to flourish (as seen by Slaten, Spence & Fernandez this season alone)
lol. You are correct. Just have two people trying hard to justify their silly comments.
But you are looking at them as a whole. Not as those there were successful BECAUSE they were a draft pick. Sure there have been many that were a success, but a lot of those were not successful with the team that drafted them in the Rule 5. Nestor Cortes is an example. He counts as a Rule 5 pick, but he was returned and became successful several years after he was picked. That doesn’t count. If it does, you might as well call Chris Sale the most successful Rockies pitcher of all time since they drafted him out of high school, but didn’t sign him.
And the business of baseball has changed MUCH since the days when Clemente and Mathewson were picked. If you just look at the drafts since salaries exploded, the success rate is FAR fewer than the “dozens of All Stars” level you are claiming.
July 1st has been like Christmas to Bobby Bonilla.
How many quality players rotted in the Yankee minor league system that would have had solid or better major league careers in Pittsburgh or Chicago? No problem with the Rule 5 system.
Friarguy.. You realize 1 of the reasons the MLB draft came about was because both the Dodgers and NYY had better and more talent spread throughout their milb levels than some MLB teams I hope?
All amateur talent was at 1 time signed as FA/open contracts by scouts and very few teams had the amount of scouts as did Dodgers and NY. Yes, the R/Sox had lots, as did some others.. NYG, CHC, but many others had shoestring budgets and Milb affiliates went all the way down to so called “D” level in the 40’s and 50’s.
The Fish would be idiots to expose de los Santos to the Rule 5 this winter. He’s at .297-39-117, for God’s sake. Quibble about his OBP & K levels all you want, but he’s doing this at AA/AAA (mostly AAA) and just turned 21. Do they (or anyone) have a bunch of guys like that laying around? I’m guessing no.
Nice write up !
Great article, thanks Anthony!